1. A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
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Anna Di Meglio, Carmela Calabrese, Ricardo Cardona-Rivera, Pietro De Lellis, Marco Coraggio, Francesco De Lellis, Davide Salzano, Mario di Bernardo, Fabio Della Rossa, Giovanni Russo, Francesco Lo Iudice, Agostino Guarino, Davide Liuzza, Della Rossa, F., Salzano, D., Di Meglio, A., De Lellis, F., Coraggio, M., Calabrese, C., Guarino, A., Cardona-Rivera, R., De Lellis, P., Liuzza, D., Lo Iudice, F., Russo, G., di Bernardo, M., Institut de Neurosciences des Systèmes (INS), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), and Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) more...
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0301 basic medicine ,0209 industrial biotechnology ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Science ,Control (management) ,Pneumonia, Viral ,Psychological intervention ,General Physics and Astronomy ,02 engineering and technology ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,Article ,Regional Health Planning ,03 medical and health sciences ,Betacoronavirus ,020901 industrial engineering & automation ,Pandemic ,Computational models ,Humans ,National level ,Computer Simulation ,lcsh:Science ,Environmental planning ,Pandemics ,Network model ,Multidisciplinary ,Betacoronaviru ,Coronavirus Infection ,SARS-CoV-2 ,[SCCO.NEUR]Cognitive science/Neuroscience ,COVID-19 ,General Chemistry ,Models, Theoretical ,National health service ,Applied mathematics ,3. Good health ,030104 developmental biology ,Italy ,Viral infection ,Communicable Disease Control ,lcsh:Q ,Business ,Coronavirus Infections ,Human ,Healthcare system - Abstract
The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules. Previous modelling studies at the national level overlooked the fact that Italy is divided into administrative regions which can independently oversee their own share of the Italian National Health Service. Here, we show that heterogeneity between regions is essential to understand the spread of the epidemic and to design effective strategies to control the disease. We model Italy as a network of regions and parameterize the model of each region on real data spanning over two months from the initial outbreak. We confirm the effectiveness at the regional level of the national lockdown strategy and propose coordinated regional interventions to prevent future national lockdowns, while avoiding saturation of the regional health systems and mitigating impact on costs. Our study and methodology can be easily extended to other levels of granularity to support policy- and decision-makers., An ongoing global debate concerns effective and sustainable lockdown release strategies in the current pandemic. Here, the authors implement a network model at healthcare-relevant spatial scale to show that coordinated local strategies can be effective in containing further resurgence of the disease. more...
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