Search

In time series forecasting exercises it has been usual to suppose that the error series generated by the forecasters have a white noise behavior. However, it is possible that such supposition is violated in practice due to model misspecification or disturbances of the phenomenon not captured by the predictive models. It may lead to statistically biased and/or inefficient predictors. The present paper introduces an approach to correct predetermined forecasters by recursively modeling their remaining residuals. Two formalisms are used to illustrate the recursive approach: the well-known (linear) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the (non-linear) Artificial Neural Network (ANN). These models are recursively adjusted to the remaining residuals of a given forecaster until a white noise behavior is achieved. Applications involving ARIMA and ANN forecasters for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, S&P500 Index, Google Stock Value, Nasdaq Index, Wolf׳s Sunspot, and Canadian Lynx data series indicate the usefulness of the proposed framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Financial time series forecasting has become a challenge because it is noisy, non-stationary and chaotic. Most of the existing forecasting models for this problem do not take market sentiment into consideration. To overcome this limitation, motivated by the fact that market sentiment contains some useful forecasting information, this paper uses textual information to aid the financial time series forecasting and presents a novel text mining approach via combining ARIMA and SVR (Support Vector Regression) to forecasting. The approach contains three steps: representing textual data as feature vectors, using ARIMA to analyze the linear part and developing a SVR model based only on textual feature vector to model the nonlinear part. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach, quarterly ROEs (Return of Equity) of six security companies are chosen as the forecasting targets. Comparing with some existing state-of-the-art models, the proposed approach gives superior results. It indicates that the proposed model that uses additional market sentiment provides a promising alternative to financial time series prediction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]