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Abstract Inter-individual variation in fat distribution is increasingly recognized as clinically important but is not routinely assessed in clinical practice, in part because medical imaging has not been practical to deploy at scale for this task. Here, we report a deep learning model trained on an individual’s body shape outline—or “silhouette” —that enables accurate estimation of specific fat depots of interest, including visceral (VAT), abdominal subcutaneous (ASAT), and gluteofemoral (GFAT) adipose tissue volumes, and VAT/ASAT ratio. Two-dimensional coronal and sagittal silhouettes are constructed from whole-body magnetic resonance images in 40,032 participants of the UK Biobank and used as inputs for a convolutional neural network to predict each of these quantities. Mean age of the study participants is 65 years and 51% are female. A cross-validated deep learning model trained on silhouettes enables accurate estimation of VAT, ASAT, and GFAT volumes (R 2: 0.88, 0.93, and 0.93, respectively), outperforming a comparator model combining anthropometric and bioimpedance measures (ΔR 2 = 0.05–0.13). Next, we study VAT/ASAT ratio, a nearly body-mass index (BMI)—and waist circumference-independent marker of metabolically unhealthy fat distribution. While the comparator model poorly predicts VAT/ASAT ratio (R 2: 0.17–0.26), a silhouette-based model enables significant improvement (R 2: 0.50–0.55). Increased silhouette-predicted VAT/ASAT ratio is associated with increased risk of prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease independent of BMI and waist circumference. These results demonstrate that body silhouette images can estimate important measures of fat distribution, laying the scientific foundation for scalable population-based assessment.

Abstract The ability to identify patients who are likely to have an adverse outcome is an essential component of good clinical care. Therefore, predictive risk stratification models play an important role in clinical decision making. Determining whether a given predictive model is suitable for clinical use usually involves evaluating the model’s performance on large patient datasets using standard statistical measures of success (e.g., accuracy, discriminatory ability). However, as these metrics correspond to averages over patients who have a range of different characteristics, it is difficult to discern whether an individual prediction on a given patient should be trusted using these measures alone. In this paper, we introduce a new method for identifying patient subgroups where a predictive model is expected to be poor, thereby highlighting when a given prediction is misleading and should not be trusted. The resulting “unreliability score” can be computed for any clinical risk model and is suitable in the setting of large class imbalance, a situation often encountered in healthcare settings. Using data from more than 40,000 patients in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE), we demonstrate that patients with high unreliability scores form a subgroup in which the predictive model has both decreased accuracy and decreased discriminatory ability.