1. Nomogram for Predicting Individual Survival After Recurrence of Advanced-Stage, High-Grade Ovarian Carcinoma
- Author
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Franco M. Muggia, Roger B. Lee, Peter G. Rose, D. K. Armstrong, David G. Mutch, Angeles Alvarez Secord, Linda Van Le, Saketh R. Guntupalli, James J. Java, Larry J. Copeland, Chad A. Hamilton, Maurie Markman, Robert A. Burger, Michael Friedlander, David Bender, Ritu Salani, Krishnansu S. Tewari, Michael A. Bookman, Robert M. Wenham, Michael Method, and Melissa A. Geller
- Subjects
Oncology ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Prognostic variable ,Paclitaxel ,Platinum Compounds ,Gynecologic oncology ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Ovarian carcinoma ,Internal medicine ,Carcinoma ,Humans ,Medicine ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Stage (cooking) ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,Ovarian Neoplasms ,030219 obstetrics & reproductive medicine ,Performance status ,business.industry ,Obstetrics and Gynecology ,Middle Aged ,Nomogram ,medicine.disease ,Debulking ,Antineoplastic Agents, Phytogenic ,United States ,Nomograms ,Female ,Neoplasm Recurrence, Local ,business - Abstract
Objective To analyze clinical prognostic factors for survival after recurrence of high-grade, advanced-stage ovarian-peritoneal-tubal carcinoma and to develop a nomogram to predict individual survival after recurrence. Methods We retrospectively analyzed patients treated in multicenter Gynecologic Oncology Group protocols for stage III and IV ovarian-peritoneal-tubal carcinoma who underwent primary debulking surgery, received chemotherapy with paclitaxel and a platinum compound, and subsequently developed recurrence. Prognostic factors affecting survival were identified and used to develop a nomogram, which was both internally and externally validated. Results There were 4,739 patients included in this analysis, of whom, 84% had stage III and 16% had stage IV ovarian carcinoma. At a median follow-up of 88.8 months (95% CI 86.2-92.0 months), the vast majority of patients (89.4%) had died. The median survival after recurrence was 21.4 months (95% CI 20.5-21.9 months). Time to recurrence after initial chemotherapy, clear cell or mucinous histology, performance status, stage IV disease, and age were significant variables used to develop a nomogram for survival after recurrence, which had a concordance index of 0.67. The time to recurrence alone accounted for 85% of the prognostic information. Similar results were found for patients who underwent second look laparotomy and had a complete pathologic response or received intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Conclusion For individuals with advanced-stage ovarian carcinoma who recur after standard first-line therapy, estimated survivals after recurrence are closely related to the time to recurrence after chemotherapy and prognostic variables can be used to predict subsequent survival. Clinical trial registration ClinialTrials.gov, NCT00002568, NCT00837993, NCT00002717, NCT01074398, and NCT00011986.
- Published
- 2019
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