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Employed for over a century, the traditional way of monitoring sea level variability by tide gauges – in combination with modern observational techniques like satellite altimetry – is an inevitable ingredient in sea level studies over the climate scales and in coastal seas. The development of the instrumentation, remote data acquisition, processing, and archiving in the last decades has allowed the extension of the applications to a variety of users and coastal hazard managers. The Mediterranean and Black seas are examples of such a transition – while having a long tradition of sea level observations with several records spanning over a century, the number of modern tide gauge stations is growing rapidly, with data available both in real time and as a research product at different time resolutions. As no comprehensive survey of the tide gauge networks has been carried out recently in these basins, the aim of this paper is to map the existing coastal sea level monitoring infrastructures and the respective data availability. The survey encompasses a description of major monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas and their characteristics, including the type of sea level sensors, measuring resolutions, data availability, and existence of ancillary measurements, altogether collecting information about 240 presently operational tide gauge stations. The availability of the Mediterranean and Black seas sea level data in the global and European sea level repositories has been also screened and classified following their sampling interval and level of quality check, pointing to the necessity of harmonization of the data available with different metadata and series in different repositories. Finally, an assessment of the networks' capabilities for their use in different sea level applications has been done, with recommendations that might mitigate the bottlenecks and ensure further development of the networks in a coordinated way, a critical need in the era of human-induced climate changes and sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decadal variability in Caspian Sea thermohaline properties is investigated using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model including sea ice thermodynamics and air–sea interaction forced by prescribed realistic atmospheric conditions and riverine runoff. The model describes synoptic, seasonal and climatic variations of sea thermohaline structure, water balance, and sea level. A reconstruction experiment was conducted for the period of 1961–2001, covering a major regime shift in the global climate during 1976–1978, which allowed for an investigation of the Caspian Sea response to such significant episodes of climate variability. The model reproduced sea level evolution reasonably well despite the fact that many factors (such as possible seabed changes and insufficiently explored underground water infiltration) were not taken into account in the numerical reconstruction. This supports the hypothesis relating rapid Caspian Sea level rise in 1978–1995 with global climate change, which caused variation in local atmospheric conditions and riverine discharge reflected in the external forcing data used, as is shown in the paper. Other effects of the climatic shift are investigated, including a decrease in salinity in the active layer, strengthening of its stratification and corresponding diminishing of convection. It is also demonstrated that water exchange between the three Caspian basins (northern, middle and southern) plays a crucial role in the formation of their thermohaline regime. The reconstructed long-term trends in seawater salinity (general downtrend after 1978), temperature (overall increase) and density (general downtrend) are studied, including an assessment of the influence of main surface circulation patterns and model error accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information on recent biomass distribution and biogeography of photosynthetic marine protists with adequate temporal and spatial resolution is urgently needed to better understand the consequences of environmental change for marine ecosystems. Here we introduce and review a molecular-based observation strategy for high-resolution assessment of these protists in space and time. It is the result of extensive technology developments, adaptations and evaluations which are documented in a number of different publications, and the results of the recently completed field testing which are introduced in this paper. The observation strategy is organized at four different levels. At level 1, samples are collected at high spatiotemporal resolution using the remotely controlled automated filtration system AUTOFIM. Resulting samples can either be preserved for later laboratory analyses, or directly subjected to molecular surveillance of key species aboard the ship via an automated biosensor system or quantitative polymerase chain reaction (level 2). Preserved samples are analyzed at the next observational levels in the laboratory (levels 3 and 4). At level 3 this involves molecular fingerprinting methods for a quick and reliable overview of differences in protist community composition. Finally, selected samples can be used to generate a detailed analysis of taxonomic protist composition via the latest next generation sequencing technology (NGS) at level 4. An overall integrated dataset of the results based on the different analyses provides comprehensive information on the diversity and biogeography of protists, including all related size classes. At the same time the cost of the observation is optimized with respect to analysis effort and time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transport of water masses with ocean circulation is a key component of the global climate system. In this context, the Filchner Trough in the southern Weddell Sea is critical, as it is a hotspot for the cross-shelf-break exchange of Dense Shelf Water and Warm Deep Water. We present results from Lagrangian particle tracking experiments in a global-ocean–sea-ice model (FESOM-1.4) which includes ice-shelf cavities and has eddy-permitting resolution on the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. With backward and forward experiments, we assess changes between a present-day and a future (SSP5-8.5) time slice in the origin of waters reaching the Filchner Ice Shelf front and the fate of waters leaving it. We show that particles reaching the ice-shelf front from the open ocean originate from 173 % greater depths by 2100 (median; 776 m as compared to 284 m for the present day), while waters leaving the cavity towards the open ocean end up at 35 % shallower depths (550 m as compared to 850 m for the present day). Pathways of water leaving the continental shelf increasingly occur in the upper ocean, while the on-shelf flow of waters that might reach the ice-shelf cavity, i.e., at deeper layers, becomes more important by 2100. Simultaneously, median transit times between the Filchner Ice Shelf front and the continental shelf break decrease (increase) by 6 (9.5) months in the backward (forward) experiments. In conclusion, our study demonstrates the sensitivity of regional circulation patterns in the southern Weddell Sea to ongoing climate change, with direct implications for ice-shelf basal melt rates and local ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Operational approaches have been more and more widely developed and used for providing marine data and information services for different socio-economic sectors of the Blue Growth and to advance knowledge about the marine environment. The objective of operational oceanographic research is to develop and improve the efficiency, timeliness, robustness and product quality of this approach. This white paper aims to address key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5-10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European Ocean Observations, Modelling and Forecasting Technology, Coastal Operational Oceanography and Operational Ecology. The areas "European Ocean Observations" and "Modelling and Forecasting Technology" focus on the further advancement of the basic instruments and capacities for European operational oceanography, while "Coastal Operational Oceanography" and "Operational Ecology" aim at developing new operational approaches for the corresponding knowledge areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level is one of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) listed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) in climate change monitoring. In the past two decades, sea level has been routinely measured from space using satellite altimetry techniques. In order to address a number of important scientific questions such as "Is sea level rise accelerating?", "Can we close the sea level budget?", "What are the causes of the regional and interannual variability?", "Can we already detect the anthropogenic forcing signature and separate it from the internal/natural climate variability?", and "What are the coastal impacts of sea level rise?", the accuracy of altimetry-based sea level records at global and regional scales needs to be significantly improved. For example, the global mean and regional sea level trend uncertainty should become better than 0.3 and 0.5 mm year-1, respectively (currently 0.6 and 1-2 mm year-1). Similarly, interannual global mean sea level variations (currently uncertain to 2-3 mm) need to be monitored with better accuracy. In this paper, we present various data improvements achieved within the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) project on "Sea Level" during its first phase (2010-2013), using multi-mission satellite altimetry data over the 1993-2010 time span. In a first step, using a new processing system with dedicated algorithms and adapted data processing strategies, an improved set of sea level products has been produced. The main improvements include: reduction of orbit errors and wet/dry atmospheric correction errors, reduction of instrumental drifts and bias, intercalibration biases, intercalibration between missions and combination of the different sea level data sets, and an improvement of the reference mean sea surface. We also present preliminary independent validations of the SL_cci products, based on tide gauges comparison and a sea level budget closure approach, as well as comparisons with ocean reanalyses and climate model outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term monitoring of basic hydrological parameters (temperature and salinity), collected as time series with adequate temporal resolution (i.e. with a sampling interval allowing the resolution of all important timescales) in key places of the Mediterranean Sea (straits and channels, zones of dense water formation, deep parts of the basins), constitute a priority in the context of global changes. This led CIESM (The Mediterranean Science Commission) to support, since 2002, the HYDROCHANGES programme (www. ciesm.org/marine/programs/hydrochanges.htm), a network of autonomous conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) sensors, deployed on mainly short and easily manageable subsurface moorings, within the core of a certain water mass. The HYDROCHANGES strategy is twofold and develops on different scales. To get information about long-term changes of hydrological characteristics, long time series are needed. But before these series are long enough they allow the detection of links between them at shorter timescales that may provide extremely valuable information about the functioning of the Mediterranean Sea. The aim of this paper is to present the history of the programme and the current set-up of the network (monitored sites, involved groups) as well as to provide for the first time an overview of all the time series collected under the HYDROCHANGES umbrella, discussing the results obtained thanks to the programme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A temporally and spatially resolved estimate of the global surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure field and the sea-air CO2 flux is presented, obtained by fitting a simple data-driven diagnostic model of ocean mixed-layer biogeochemistry to surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure data from the SOCAT v1.5 database. Results include seasonal, interannual, and short-term (daily) variations. In most regions, estimated seasonality is well constrained from the data, and compares well to the widely used monthly climatology by Takahashi et al. (2009). Comparison to independent data tentatively supports the slightly higher seasonal variations in our estimates in some areas. We also fitted the diagnostic model to atmospheric CO2 data. The results of this are less robust, but in those areas where atmospheric signals are not strongly influenced by land flux variability, their seasonality is nevertheless consistent with the results based on surface-ocean data. From a comparison with an independent seasonal climatology of surface-ocean nutrient concentration, the diagnostic model is shown to capture relevant surface-ocean biogeochemical processes reasonably well. Estimated interannual variations will be presented and discussed in a companion paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transport and storage of heat by the ocean is of crucial importance because of its effect on ocean dynamics and its impact on the atmosphere, climate and climate change. Unfortunately, limits to the amount of data that can be collected and stored mean that many experimental and modelling studies of the heat budget have to make use of mean datasets where the effects of short term fluctuations are lost. In this paper we investigate the magnitude of the resulting errors by making use of data from OCCAM, a high resolution global ocean model. The model carries out a proper heat balance every time step so any imbalances that are found in the analysis must result from the use of mean fields. The study concentrates on two areas of the ocean affecting the El Nino. The first is the region of tropical instability waves north of the Equator. The second is in the upwelling region along the Equator. It is shown that in both cases, processes with a period of less than five days can have a significant impact on the heat budget. Thus, analyses using data averaged over five days or more are likely to have significant errors. It is also shown that if a series of instantaneous values is available, reasonable estimates can be made of the size of the errors. In model studies, such values are available in the form of the datasets used to restart the model. In experimental studies they may be in the form of individual unaveraged observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to determine the dispersion of passive pollutants associated with the Tiber discharge into the Tyrrhenian Sea using numerical marine dispersion models and satellite data. Numerical results obtained in the simulation of realistic discharge episodes were compared with the corresponding evolution of the spatial distributions of MODIS diffuse light attenuation coefficient at 490 nm (K490), and the results were discussed with reference to the local climate and the seasonal sub-regional circulation regime. The numerical model used for the simulation of the sub-tidal circulation was a Mediterranean sub-regional scale implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), nested in the large-scale Mediterranean Forecasting System. The nesting method enabled the model to be applied to almost every area in the Mediterranean Sea and also to be used in seasons for which imposing climatological boundary conditions would have been questionable. Dynamical effects on coastal circulation and on water density due to the Tiber discharge were additionally accounted for in the oceanographic model by implementing the river estuary as a point source of a buoyant jet. A Lagrangian particle dispersion model fed with the POM current fields was then run in order to reproduce the effect of the turbulent transport of passive tracers mixed in the plume with the coastal flow. Two significant episodes of river discharge in both winter and summer conditions were discussed in this paper. It was found that the winter regime was characterized by the presence of a strong coastal jet flowing with the ambient current. In summer the prevailing wind regime induced coastal downwelling conditions, which tended to confine the riverine waters close to the shore. In such conditions sudden wind reversals due to local weather perturbations, causing moderate local upwelling, proved to be the only effective way to disperse the tracers offshore, moving the plume from the coast and detaching large pools of freshwater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale ocean transports of heat and freshwater have not been well monitored, and yet the regional budgets of these quantities are important to understanding the role of the oceans in climate and climate change. In contrast, atmospheric heat and freshwater transports are commonly assessed from atmospheric reanalysis products, despite the presence of non-conserving data assimilation based on the wealth of distributed atmospheric observations as constraints. The ability to carry out ocean reanalyses globally at eddy-permitting resolutions of 1/4° or better, along with new global ocean observation programs, now makes a similar approach viable for the ocean. In this paper we examine the budgets and transports within a global high resolution ocean model constrained by ocean data assimilation, and compare them with independent oceanic and atmospheric estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4) of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1) tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2) partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3) more accurate equation of state, (4) three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5) incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, 6) neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7) staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8) anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9) parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, 10) incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11) transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical virtual tracer flux" methods, (12) parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report describes an increase in the number and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) and a decrease in marine cold spells (MCSs) in the global ocean. However, these reported changes are not uniform on a regional to local basis, and it remains unknown if coastal areas follow the open-ocean trends. Surface ocean temperature measurements collected by satellites (from 1982–2022) and 13 coastal buoys (from 1990–2022) are analyzed in the northeastern Atlantic and three subregions: the English Channel, Bay of Brest and Bay of Biscay. The activity metric, combining the number of events, intensity, duration and spatial extent, is used to evaluate the magnitude of these extreme events. The results from in situ and satellite datasets for each of the studied regions are quite in agreement, although the satellite dataset underestimates the amplitude of activity for both MHWs and MCSs. This supports the applicability of the method to both in situ and satellite data, albeit with caution on the amplitude of these events. Also, this localized study in European coastal northeastern Atlantic water highlights that similar changes are being seen in coastal and open oceans regarding extreme events of temperature, with MHWs being more frequent and longer and extending over larger areas, while the opposite is seen for MCSs. These trends can be explained by changes in both the mean of and variance in sea-surface temperature. In addition, the pace of evolution and dynamics of marine extreme events differ among the subregions. Among the three studied subregions, the English Channel is the region experiencing the strongest increase in summer MHW activity over the last 4 decades. Summer MHWs were very active in the English Channel in 2022 due to long events, in the Bay of Biscay in 2018 due to intense events and in the Bay of Brest in 2017 due to a high occurrence of events. Winter MCSs were the largest in 1987 and 1986 due to long and intense events in the English Channel. Finally, our findings suggest that at an interannual timescale, the positive North Atlantic Oscillation favors the generation of strong summer MHWs in the northeastern Atlantic, while low-pressure conditions over northern Europe and a high off the Iberian Peninsula in winter dominate for MCSs. A preliminary analysis of air–sea heat fluxes suggests that, in this region, reduced cloud coverage is a key parameter for the generation of summer MHWs, while strong winds and increased cloud coverage are important for the generation of winter MCSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the next decade, the Baltic Sea is predicted to undergo severe changes including decreased salinity due to altered precipitation related to climate changes. This will likely impact the distribution and community composition of Baltic Sea dinitrogen-fixing (N 2 -fixing) microbes, among which heterocystous cyanobacteria are especially adapted to low salinities and may expand to waters with currently higher salinity, including the Danish Strait and Kattegat, while other high-salinity-adapted N 2 fixers might decrease in abundance. In order to explore the impact of salinity on the distribution and activity of different diazotrophic clades, we followed the natural salinity gradient from the eastern Gotland and Bornholm basins through the Arkona Basin to the Kiel Bight and combined N 2 fixation rate measurements with a molecular analysis of the diazotrophic community using the key functional marker gene for N 2 fixation nifH, as well as the key functional marker genes anfD and vnfD, encoding for the two alternative nitrogenases. We detected N 2 fixation rates between 0.7 and 6 nmol N L -1 d -1 , and the diazotrophic community was dominated by the cyanobacterium related to Nodularia spumigena and the small unicellular, cosmopolitan cyanobacterium UCYN-A. Nodularia was present in gene abundances between 8.07 × 10 5 and 1.6 × 10 7 copies L -1 in waters with salinities of 10 and below, while UCYN-A reached gene abundances of up to 4.5 × 10 7 copies L -1 in waters with salinity above 10. Besides those two cyanobacterial diazotrophs, we found several clades of proteobacterial N 2 fixers and alternative nitrogenase genes associated with Rhodopseudomonas palustris, a purple non-sulfur bacterium. Based on principal component analysis (PCA), salinity was identified as the primary parameter describing the diazotrophic distribution, while pH and temperature did not have a significant influence on the diazotrophic distribution. While this statistical analysis will need to be explored in direct experiments, it gives an indication for the future development of diazotrophy in a freshening Baltic Sea with UCYN-A retracting to more saline North Sea waters and heterocystous cyanobacteria expanding as salinity decreases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the freshwater budget of the Atlantic and Arctic oceans in coupled climate change simulations with the Community Earth System Model and compare a strongly eddying setup with 0.1 ∘ ocean grid spacing to a non-eddying 1 ∘ configuration typical of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Details of this budget are important to understand the evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under climate change. We find that the slowdown of the AMOC in the year 2100 under the increasing CO 2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario is almost identical between both simulations. Also, the surface freshwater fluxes are similar in their mean and trend under climate change in both simulations. While the basin-scale total freshwater transport is similar between the simulations, significant local differences exist. The high-ocean-resolution simulation exhibits significantly reduced ocean state biases, notably in the salt distribution, due to an improved circulation. Mesoscale eddies contribute considerably to the freshwater and salt transport, in particular at the boundaries of the subtropical and subpolar gyres. Both simulations start in the single equilibrium AMOC regime according to a commonly used AMOC stability indicator and evolve towards the multiple equilibrium regime under climate change, but only the high-resolution simulation enters it due to the reduced biases in the freshwater budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate of change in the marine environment over the eastern Agulhas Bank along the south coast of South Africa (32–37 ∘ S, 20–30 ∘ E) is studied using reanalysis observations for 1900–2015 and coupled ensemble model projections for 1980–2100. Outcomes are influenced by resolution and time span: ∼ 1 ∘ datasets covering the whole period capture large-scale changes, while ∼ 0.5 ∘ datasets in the satellite era better distinguish the cross-shelf gradients. Although sea surface temperatures offshore are warming rapidly (0.05 ∘ C yr -1 since 1980), a trend toward easterly winds and a locally stronger Agulhas Current have intensified nearshore upwelling (-0.03 ∘ C yr -1). The subtropical ridge is gradually moving poleward, leading to a drier climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a set of climate simulations utilizing two kinds of Earth system models (ESMs) in which observed ocean hydrographic data are assimilated using exactly the same data assimilation procedure, we have clarified that the successful simulation of the observed air–sea CO 2 flux variations in the equatorial Pacific is tightly linked to the reproducibility of coupled physical air–sea processes. When an ESM with a weaker ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillations) amplitude than that of the observations was used for historical simulations with ocean data assimilation, the observed equatorial anticorrelated relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) and the air–sea CO 2 flux on interannual to decadal timescales could not be represented. The simulated CO 2 flux anomalies were upward (downward) during El Niño (La Niña) periods in the equatorial Pacific. The reason for this was that the non-negligible correction term in the governing equation of ocean temperature, which was added via the ocean data assimilation procedure, caused an anomalous, spurious equatorial upwelling (downwelling) during El Niño (La Niña) periods, which brought more (less) subsurface layer water rich in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the surface layer. On the other hand, in the historical simulations where the observational data were assimilated into the other ESM with a more realistic ENSO representation, the correction term associated with the assimilation procedure remained small enough so as not to disturb an anomalous advection–diffusion balance for the equatorial ocean temperature. Consequently, spurious vertical transport of DIC and the resultant positively correlated SST and air–sea CO 2 flux variations did not occur. Thus, the reproducibility of the tropical air–sea CO 2 flux variability with data assimilation can be significantly attributed to the reproducibility of ENSO in an ESM. Our results suggest that, when using data assimilation to initialize ESMs for carbon cycle predictions, the reproducibility of the internal climate variations in the model itself is of great importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative, new sets of satellite observation products have been produced for essential climate variables including ocean colour, sea surface temperature, sea level, and sea ice. These new products have been assimilated into a global physical–biogeochemical ocean model to create a set of 13-year reanalyses at 1 ∘ resolution and 3-year reanalyses at 1/4 ∘ resolution. In a series of experiments, the variables were assimilated individually and in combination in order to assess their consistency from a data assimilation perspective. The satellite products, and the reanalyses assimilating them, were found to be consistent in their representation of spatial features such as fronts, sea ice extent, and bloom activity. Assimilating multiple variables together often resulted in larger mean increments for a variable than assimilating it individually, providing information about model biases and compensating errors which could be addressed in the future development of the model and assimilation scheme. Sea surface fugacity of carbon dioxide had lower errors against independent observations in the higher-resolution simulations and was improved by assimilating ocean colour or sea ice concentration, but it was degraded by assimilating sea surface temperature or sea level anomaly. Phytoplankton biomass correlated more strongly with net air–sea heat fluxes in the reanalyses than chlorophyll concentration did, and the correlation was weakened by assimilating ocean colour data, suggesting that studies of phytoplankton bloom initiation based solely on chlorophyll data may not provide a full understanding of the underlying processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the climate change signal in the Mediterranean Sea using the regionally coupled model REMO–OASIS–MPIOM (ROM; abbreviated from the regional atmosphere model, the OASIS3 coupler and the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model). The ROM oceanic component is global with regionally high horizontal resolution in the Mediterranean Sea so that the water exchanges with the adjacent North Atlantic and Black Sea are explicitly simulated. Simulations forced by ERA-Interim show an accurate representation of the present Mediterranean climate. Our analysis of the RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway) scenario using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model shows that the Mediterranean waters will be warmer and saltier throughout most of the basin by the end of this century. In the upper ocean layer, temperature is projected to have a mean increase of 2.7 ∘ C, while the mean salinity will increase by 0.2 psu, presenting a decreasing trend in the western Mediterranean in contrast to the rest of the basin. The warming initially takes place at the surface and propagates gradually to deeper layers. Hydrographic changes have an impact on intermediate water characteristics, potentially affecting the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze extreme sea levels (ESLs) and related uncertainty in an ensemble of regional climate change scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The ERA-40 reanalysis and five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global general circulation models (GCMs) have been dynamically downscaled with the coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean model RCA4-NEMO (Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model version 4 – Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean). The 100-year return levels along the Swedish coast in the ERA-40 hindcast are within the 95 % confidence limits of the observational estimates, except those on the west coast. The ensemble mean of the 100-year return levels averaged over the five GCMs shows biases of less than 10 cm. A series of sensitivity studies explores how the choice of different parameterizations, open boundary conditions and atmospheric forcing affects the estimates of 100-year return levels. A small ensemble of different regional climate models (RCMs) forced with ERA-40 shows the highest uncertainty in ESLs in the southwestern Baltic Sea and in the northeastern part of the Bothnian Bay. Some regions like the Skagerrak, Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga are sensitive to the choice of the RCM. A second ensemble of one RCM forced with different GCMs uncovers a lower sensitivity of ESLs against the variance introduced by different GCMs. The uncertainty in the estimates of 100-year return levels introduced by GCMs ranges from 20 to 40 cm at different stations and includes the estimates based on observations. It is of similar size to the 95 % confidence limits of 100-year return levels from tide gauge records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Southern Hemisphere, macroscale atmospheric systems such as westerly winds and the southeast Pacific subtropical anti-cyclone (SPSA) influence the wind regime of the eastern austral Pacific Ocean. The average and seasonal behaviors of these systems are well known, although wind variability at different time and distance scales remains largely unexamined. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to determine the variabilities of surface winds on a spatiotemporal scale from 40 to 56 ∘ S, using QuikSCAT, Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and the fifth major global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) surface-wind information complemented with in situ meteorological data. In addition, interactions between the atmospheric systems, together with the ocean–atmosphere response, were evaluated for the period 1999–2018. The empirical orthogonal function detected dominance at the synoptic scale in mode 1, representing approximately 30 % of the total variance. In this mode, low and high atmospheric pressure systems characterized wind variability for a 16.5 d cycle. Initially, mode 2 – which represents approximately 22 % of the variance – was represented by winds from the west/east (43–56 ∘ S), occurring mostly during spring and summer/fall and winter at an annual timescale (1999–2008) until they were replaced by systems cycling at 27.5 d (2008–2015). This reflects the influence of the baroclinic annular mode in the Southern Hemisphere. Mode 3, representing approximately 15 % of the variance, involved the passage of small-scale low and high atmospheric pressure (LAP and HAP) systems throughout Patagonia. Persistent Ekman suction occurred throughout the year south of the Gulf of Penas and beyond the Pacific mouth of the Strait of Magellan. Easterly Ekman transport (ET) piled these upwelled waters onto the western shore of South America when winds blew southward. These physical mechanisms were essential in bringing nutrients to the surface and then transporting planktonic organisms from the oceanic zone to Patagonian fjords and channels. In the zonal band between 41 and 43 ∘ S, the latitude of Chiloé Island, upward Ekman pumping and Ekman transport during spring and summer favored a reduced sea surface temperature and increased chlorophyll a (Chl a) levels; this is the first time that such Ekman upwelling conditions have been reported so far south in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The influence of the northward-migrating LAP systems on the ocean–atmosphere interphase allowed us to understand, for the first time, their direct relationship with recorded nighttime air temperature maxima (locally referred to as "nighttime heatwave events"). In the context of global climate change, greater attention should be paid to these processes based on their possible impact on the rate of glacier melting and on the austral climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Almost three decades of bottom pressure recorder (BPR) measurements at the Drake Passage, and 31 years of hourly tide gauge data from the Vernadsky Research Base on the Antarctic Peninsula, have been used to investigate the temporal and spatial variations in this region of the three main long-period tides Mf, Mm and Mt (in order of decreasing amplitude, with periods of a fortnight, a month and one-third of a month, respectively). The amplitudes of Mf and Mt, and the phase lags for all three constituents, vary over the nodal cycle (18.61 years) in essentially the same way as in the equilibrium tide, so confirming the validity of Doodson's "nodal factors" for these constituents. The amplitude of Mm is found to be essentially constant, and so inconsistent at the 3δ level from the ±13% (or ~ ±0:15 mbar) anticipated variation over the nodal cycle, which can probably be explained by energetic non-tidal variability in the records at monthly timescales and longer. The north-south differences in amplitude for all three constituents are consistent with those in a modern ocean tide model (FES2014), as are those in phase lag for Mf and Mt, while the phase difference for Mm is smaller than in the model. BPR measurements are shown to be considerably superior to coastal tide gauge data in such studies, due to the larger proportion of non-tidal variability in the latter. However, correction of the tide gauge records for non-tidal variability results in the uncertainties in nodal parameters being reduced by a factor of 2 (for Mf at least) to a magnitude comparable (approximately twice) to those obtained from the BPR data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the first time, a monthly climatology of mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Red Sea has been derived based on temperature profiles. The general pattern of MLD variability is clearly visible in the Red Sea, with deep MLDs during winter and shallow MLDs during summer. Transitional MLDs have been found during the spring and fall. The northern end of the Red Sea experienced deeper mixing and a higher MLD associated with the winter cooling of the high-saline surface waters. Further, the region north of 19° N experienced deep mixed layers, regardless of the season. Wind stress plays a major role in the MLD variability of the southern Red Sea, while net heat flux and evaporation are the dominating factors in the central and northern Red Sea regions. Ocean eddies and Tokar Gap winds significantly alter the MLD structure in the Red Sea. The dynamics associated with the Tokar Gap winds leads to a difference of more than 20m in the average MLD between the north and south of the Tokar axis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1mm (8% of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbitrelated error of the interannual trend is 0.1mmyr-1 (27% of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10% of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10% of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1mmyr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10% of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the observed orbit-related errors are further investigated. The main contributors on all timescales are uncertainties in Earth's time-variable gravity field models and on annual to interannual timescales discrepancies of the tracking station subnetworks, i.e. satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal mean and synoptic fluctuation of the wintertime Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) were investigated using a well-validated finite volume community ocean model. The spatial distribution and dynamics of the synoptic fluctuation were highlighted. The seasonal mean of the wintertime TWC has two branches: an inshore branch between the 30 and 100m isobaths and an offshore branch between the 100 and 200m isobaths. The Coriolis term is much larger than the inertia term and is almost balanced by the pressure gradient term in both branches, indicating geostrophic balance of the mean current. Two areas with significant fluctuations of the TWC were identified during wintertime. One of the areas is located to the north of Taiwan with velocities varying in the cross-shore direction. These significant crossshore fluctuations are driven by barotropic pressure gradients associated with the intrusion of the Taiwan Strait Current (TSC). When a strong TSC intrudes to the north of Taiwan, the isobaric slope tilts downward from south to north, leading to a cross-shore current from the coastal area to the offshore area. When the TSC intrusion is weak, the crossshore current to the north of Taiwan is directed from offshore to inshore. The other area of significant fluctuation is located in the inshore area between the 30 and 100m isobaths. The fluctuations are generally strong both in the alongshore and cross-shore directions, in particular at the latitudes 26.5 and 28° N. Wind affects the synoptic fluctuation through episodic events. When the northeasterly monsoon prevails, the southwestward Zhe-Min coastal current dominates the inshore area associated with a deepening of the mixed layer. When the winter monsoon is weakened or the southwesterly wind prevails, the northeastward TWC dominates in the inshore area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long dynamical atmospheric reanalyses are widely used for climate studies, but data-assimilative reanalyses of ocean and sea ice in the Arctic are less common. TOPAZ4 is a coupled ocean and sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and the Arctic that is based on the HYCOM ocean model and the ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method using 100 dynamical members. A 23-year reanalysis has been completed for the period 1991-2013 and is the multi-year physical product in the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) Arctic Marine Forecasting Center (ARC MFC). This study presents its quantitative quality assessment, compared to both assimilated and unassimilated observations available in the whole Arctic region, in order to document the strengths and weaknesses of the system for potential users. It is found that TOPAZ4 performs well with respect to near-surface ocean variables, but some limitations appear in the interior of the ocean and for ice thickness, where observations are sparse. In the course of the reanalysis, the skills of the system are improving as the observation network becomes denser, in particular during the International Polar Year. The online bias estimation successfully maintains a low bias in our system. In addition, statistics of the reduced centered random variables (RCRVs) confirm the reliability of the ensemble for most of the assimilated variables. Occasional discontinuities of these statistics are caused by the changes of the input data sets or the data assimilation settings, but the statistics remain otherwise stable throughout the reanalysis, regardless of the density of observations. Furthermore, no data type is severely less dispersed than the others, even though the lack of consistently reprocessed observation time series at the beginning of the reanalysis has proven challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analytical solutions are found for the problem of instability of a weak geostrophic flow with linear velocity shear accounting for vertical diffusion of buoyancy. The analysis is based on the potential-vorticity equation in a long-wave approximation when the horizontal scale of disturbances is considered much larger than the local baroclinic Rossby radius. It is hypothesized that the solutions found can be applied to describe stable and unstable disturbances of the planetary scale with respect, in particular, to the Arctic Ocean, where weak baroclinic fronts with typical temporal variability periods on the order of several years or more have been observed and the β effect is negligible. Stable (decaying with time) solutions describe disturbances that, in contrast to the Rossby waves, can propagate to both the west and east, depending on the sign of the linear shear of geostrophic velocity. The unstable (growing with time) solutions are applied to explain the formation of large-scale intrusions at baroclinic fronts under the stable-stable thermohaline stratification observed in the upper layer of the Polar Deep Water in the Eurasian Basin. The suggested mechanism of formation of intrusions can be considered a possible alternative to the mechanism of interleaving at the baroclinic fronts due to the differential mixing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies show that nonseasonal variations in global-mean sea level (GMSL) are significantly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, it has remained unclear to what extent these ENSO-related GMSL fluctuations correspond to steric (i.e., density) or barystatic (mass) effects. Here we diagnose the GMSL budget for ENSO events observationally using data from profiling floats, satellite gravimetry, and radar altimetry during 2005-2015. Steric and barystatic effects make comparable contributions to the GMSL budget during ENSO, in contrast to previous interpretations based largely on hydrological models, which emphasize the barystatic component. The steric contributions reflect changes in global ocean heat content, centered on the Pacific. Distributions of ocean heat storage in the Pacific arise from a mix of diabatic and adiabatic effects. Results have implications for understanding the surface warming slowdown and demonstrate the usefulness of the Global Ocean Observing System for constraining Earth's hydrological cycle and radiation imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arabian Sea and Sea of Oman circulation and water masses, subject to monsoon forcing, reveal a strong seasonal variability and intense mesoscale features. We describe and analyze this variability and these features, using both meteorological data (from ECMWF reanalyses), in situ observations (from the ARGO float program and the GDEM -- Generalized Digital Environmental mode -- climatology), satellite altimetry (from AVISO) and a regional simulation with a primitive equation model (HYCOM -- the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model). The model and observations display comparable variability, and the model is then used to analyze the three-dimensional structure of eddies and water masses with higher temporal and spatial resolutions than the available observations. The mesoscale features are highly seasonal, with the formation of coastal currents, destabilizing into eddies, or the radiation of Rossby waves from the Indian coast. The mesoscale eddies have a deep dynamical influence and strongly drive the water masses at depth. In particular, in the Sea of Oman, the Persian GulfWater presents several offshore ejection sites and a complex recirculation, depending on the mesoscale eddies. The associated mechanisms range from coastal ejection via dipoles, alongshore pulses due to a cyclonic eddy, to the formation of lee eddies downstream of Ra's Al Hamra. This water mass is also captured inside the eddies via several mechanisms, keeping high thermohaline characteristics in the Arabian Sea. The variations of the outflow characteristics near the Strait of Hormuz are compared with variations downstream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local climate is significantly affected by changes in the oceanic heat content on a range of timescales. This variability is driven by heat fluxes from both the atmosphere and the ocean. In the Atlantic the meridional overturning circulation is the main contributor to the oceanic meridional heat transport for latitudes south of about 50° N. The RAPID project has been successfully monitoring the Atlantic meridional overturning at 26° N since 2004. This study demonstrates how these data can be used to estimate the variability of the basin-wide ocean heat content in the upper 800m between 26 and 36° N. Traditionally the atmosphere is seen to dominate the ocean heat content variability. However, previous studies have looked at smaller areas in the Gulf Stream region, finding that the ocean dominates deseasoned fluctuations of ocean heat content, while studies of the whole North Atlantic region suggest that the atmosphere may be dominant. In our study we use a box model to investigate fluctuations of the ocean heat content in the subtropical North Atlantic between 26° and 36° N. The box model approach is validated using 19 yr of high-resolution general circulation model (GCM) data. We find that in both the GCM- and RAPID-based data the ocean heat transport dominates the deseasoned heat content variability, while the atmosphere's impact on the ocean heat content evolution stabilizes after 6 months. We demonstrate that the utility of the RAPID data goes beyond monitoring the overturning circulation at 26° N, and that it can be used to better understand the causes of ocean heat content variability in the North Atlantic. We illustrate this for a recent decrease in ocean heat content which was observed in the North Atlantic in 2009 and 2010. Our results suggest that most of this ocean heat content reduction can be explained by a reduction of the meridional ocean heat transport during this period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

First results of a coupled modelling and forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically, fundamentally different model subsystems coupled offline: POLCOMS providing the physical environment implemented in the domain of the north-west European shelf, the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea, and the third component, the SLAM model, which connects POLCOMS and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the basis of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin-scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeel stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, even though periodic over-fishing seems to have occurred, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock inherent dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2-6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 2008 and 2010, the Arctic Oscillation index over Arctic regions shifted from positive values corresponding to more cyclonic conditions prevailing during the 4th International Polar Year (IPY) period (2007-2008) to extremely negative values corresponding to strong anticyclonic conditions in 2010. In this context, we investigated the recent large-scale evolution of the upper western Arctic Ocean, based on temperature and salinity summertime observations collected during icebreaker campaigns and from icetethered profilers (ITPs) drifting across the region in 2008 and 2010. Particularly, we focused on (1) the freshwater content which was extensively studied during previous years, (2) the near-surface temperature maximum due to incoming solar radiation, and (3) the water masses advected from the Pacific Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. The observations revealed a freshwater content change in the Canadian Basin during this time period. South of 80°N, the freshwater content increased, while north of 80°N, less freshening occurred in 2010 compared to 2008. This was more likely due to the strong anticyclonicity characteristic of a low AO index mode that enhanced both a wind-generated Ekman pumping in the Beaufort Gyre and a possible diversion of the Siberian River runoff toward the Eurasian Basin at the same time. The nearsurface temperature maximum due to incoming solar radiation was almost 1°C colder in the southern Canada Basin (south of 75°N) in 2010 compared to 2008, which contrasted with the positive trend observed during previous years. This was more likely due to higher summer sea ice concentration in 2010 compared to 2008 in that region, and surface albedo feedback reflecting more sun radiation back in space. The Pacific water (PaW) was also subjected to strong spatial and temporal variability between 2008 and 2010. In the Canada Basin, both summer and winter PaW signatures were stronger between 75°N and 80°N. This was more likely due to a strong recirculation within the Beaufort Gyre. In contrast, south of 75°N, the cooling and warming of the summer and winter PaW, respectively, suggest that either the PaW was less present in 2010 than in 2008 in this region, and/or the PaW was older in 2010 than in 2008. In addition, in the vicinity of the Chukchi Sea, both summer and winter PaW were significantly warmer in 2010 than in 2008, as a consequence of a general warming trend of the PaW entering in the deep Arctic Ocean as of 2008. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years coastal oceanographers have suggested using the "Strouhal" number or its inverse, the "Stokes" number, to describe the effect of bottom boundary layer turbulence on the vertical structure of both density and currents. These are defined as the ratios of the frictional depth (δ) to the water column depth (h) or vice versa. Although many researchers have mentioned that the effects of the earth's rotation should be important, they have tended to omit it. Rotation may have an important influence on tidal currents, as the frictional depth from a fully cyclonic to a fully anticyclonic tidal ellipse can vary by up to an order of magnitude at mid latitudes. The Stokes number might appear smaller for cyclonic current ellipses (larger for anticyclonic) than it is without rotation, resulting in frictional effects being underestimated (overestimated). Here, a way to calculate a Stokes number is proposed, in which the effect of the earth's rotation is taken into account. The standard Stokes and the rotational Stokes numbers are used as predictors for the position of the tidal mixing fronts in the Irish Sea. Results show that use of the rotational number improves the predictions of fronts in shallow cyclonic areas of the eastern Irish Sea. This suggests that the effect of rotation on the water column structure will be more important in shallow shelf seas and estuaries with strong rotational currents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wave data collected off Ratnagiri, west coast of India, during 1 May 2010 to 30 April 2012 are used in this study. Seasonal and annual variations in wave data controlled by the local wind system such as sea breeze and land breeze, and remote wind generated long period waves are also studied. The role of sea breeze on the sea state during pre- and postmonsoon seasons is studied and it is found that the maximum wave height is observed at 15:00 UTC during the premonsoon season, with an estimated difference in time lag of 1-2 h in maximum wave height between premonsoon and postmonsoon seasons. Observed waves are classi- fied in to (i) short waves (Tp <8 s), (ii) intermediate waves (813 s) based on peak period (Tp) and the percentages of occurrence of each category are estimated. Long period waves are observed mainly during the pre- and the postmonsoon seasons. During the southwest monsoon period, the waves with period >13 s are a minimum. An event during 2011 is identified as swells propagated from the Southern Ocean with an estimated travelling time of 5-6 days. The swells reaching the Arabian Sea from the south Indian Ocean and Southern Ocean, due to storms during the pre- and postmonsoon periods, modify the near surface winds due to higher phase wave celerity than the wind speed. Estimation of inverse wave age using large-scale winds such as NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reflects the presence of cyclonic activity during pre- and postmonsoon seasons but not the effect of the local sea breeze/land breeze wind system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two high-frequency (HF) radar stations were installed on the coast of the south-eastern Bay of Biscay in 2009, providing high spatial and temporal resolution and large spatial coverage of currents in the area for the first time. This has made it possible to quantitatively assess the air--sea interaction patterns and timescales for the period 2009-2010. The analysis was conducted using the Barnett--Preisendorfer approach to canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of reanalysis surface winds and HF radar-derived surface currents. The CCA yields two canonical patterns: the first wind--current interaction pattern corresponds to the classical Ekman drift at the sea surface, whilst the second describes an anticyclonic/cyclonic surface circulation. The results obtained demonstrate that local winds play an important role in driving the upper water circulation. The wind--current interaction timescales are mainly related to diurnal breezes and synoptic variability. In particular, the breezes force diurnal currents in waters of the continental shelf and slope of the south-eastern Bay. It is concluded that the breezes may force diurnal currents over considerably wider areas than that covered by the HF radar, considering that the northern and southern continental shelves of the Bay exhibit stronger diurnal than annual wind amplitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two meddies were identified in the Iberian Basin using shipboard ADCP (Meddy 1) and Argo float (Meddy 2) in contrasting background conditions. Meddy 1 was observed while interacting with the Azores Current (AzC), while Meddy 2 was observed in a much calmer dynamical background, north from the AzC jet. In both cases the meddies formed a clear anticyclonic surface signal, detectable in altimetry as well as in sea-surface temperature (SST). Analysis of the in situ observations of the dynamic signal over Meddy 1 showed that the signal, generated by the moving meddy, dominated the AzC dynamics at least up to the base of the seasonal thermocline even at the late stages of its interaction with the jet. The centre of rotation of the surface signal was shifted south-westward from the axis of the meddy by about 18 km, and its dynamic radius was 2 times bigger than that of the meddy. In the centre of the anticyclonic surface signals of both meddies, SST was colder than that of the surrounding water, in contrast to warm SST anomalies in the cores of surface anticyclones generated by meandering surface currents. The latter difference gives ground for identification of meddies (as well as other sub-surface anticyclones) in comparatively dynamically calm regions using coupled altimetry--SST remote sensing data. An identification of Meddy 1 prior to the shipboard ADCP measurements was the first successful experience. At the same time, SST anomalies over the meddies were rather weak, often unstable and statistically significant only over periods of months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in a miniensemble of regional Arctic coupled climate model scenario experiments are analyzed. Mechanisms of sudden ice loss are strongly related to atmospheric circulation conditions and preconditioning by sea ice thinning during the seasons and years before the event. Clustering of events in time suggests a strong control by large-scale atmospheric circulation. Anomalous atmospheric circulation is providing warm air anomalies of up to 5K and is forcing ice flow, affecting winter ice growth. Even without a seasonal preconditioning during winter, ice drop events can be initiated by anomalous inflow of warm air during summer. It is shown that RILEs can be generated based on atmospheric circulation changes as a major driving force without major competing mechanisms, other than occasional longwave effects during spring and summer. Other anomalous seasonal radiative forcing or short-lived forcers (e.g., soot) play minor roles or no role at all in our model. RILEs initiated by ocean forcing do not occur in the model, although cannot be ruled out due to model limitations. Mechanisms found are qualitatively in line with observations of the 2007 RILE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal variability of surface layer salinity (SLS), evaporation (E), precipitation (P), E -- P, advection and vertical entrainment over the global ocean is examined using in situ salinity data, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate System Forecast Reanalysis and a number of other ancillary data. Seasonal amplitudes and phases are calculated using harmonic analysis and presented in all areas of the open ocean between 60° S and 60° N. Areas with large amplitude SLS seasonal variations include: the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans; western marginal seas of the Pacific; and the Arabian Sea. The median amplitude in areas that have statistically significant seasonal cycles of SLS is 0.19. Between about 60° S and 60° N, 37 % of the ocean surface has a statistically significant seasonal cycle of SLS and 75 % has a seasonal cycle of E - P. Phases of SLS have abimodal distribution, with most areas in the Northern Hemisphere peaking in SLS in March/April and in the Southern Hemisphere in September/October. The seasonal cycle is also estimated for surface freshwater forcing using a mixed-layer depth climatology. With the exception of areas near the western boundaries of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, seasonal variability is dominated by precipitation. Surface freshwater forcing also has a bimodal distribution, with peaks in January and July, 1-2 months before the peaks of SLS. Seasonal amplitudes and phases calculated for horizontal advection show it to be important in the tropical oceans. Vertical entrainment, estimated from mixedlayer heaving, is largest in mid and high latitudes, with a seasonal cycle that peaks in late winter. The amplitudes and phases of SLS and surface fluxes compare well in a qualitative sense, suggesting that much of the variability in SLS is due to E - P. However, the amplitudes of SLS are somewhat different than would be expected and the peak of SLS comes typically about one month earlier than expected. The differences of the amplitudes of the two quantities is largest in such areas as the Amazon River plume, the Arabian Sea, the ITCZ and the eastern equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The latest release of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) gravity field coefficients (Release05, or RL05) are evaluated for ocean applications. Data have been processed using the current methodology for Release04 (RL04) coefficients, and have been compared to output from two different ocean models. Results indicate that RL05 data from the three Science Data Centers - the Center for Space Research (CSR), GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) - are more consistent among themselves than the previous RL04 data. Moreover, the variance of residuals with the output of an ocean model is 5060 % lower for RL05 data than for RL04 data. A more optimized destriping algorithm is also tested, which improves the results slightly. By comparing the GRACE maps with two different ocean models, we can better estimate the uncertainty in the RL05 maps. We find the standard error to be about 1 cm (equivalent water thickness) in the low- and midlatitudes, and between 1.5 and 2 cm in the polar and subpolar oceans, which is comparable to estimated uncertainty for the output from the ocean models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW) on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra-seasonal and inter-annual temperature variations. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water mass between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σθ = 14.2 isopycnal) which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season due to formation of a seasonal pycnocline. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from in-situ observations taken over the 2nd half of the 20th century. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the shelf area during the summer stratification period (May-November).The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by a cold phase between 1985 and 1995 and a further warming after 1995. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter convection is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the BSW significantly reduces during the warm season. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. It is shown that temperature in the BSW is stronger correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters (CIW) in the deep sea than with the severity of the previous winters, thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for inter-annual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the western Black Sea shelf than effects of winter convection on the shelf itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autonomous sensors are required for a comprehensive documentation of the changes in the marine carbon system and thus to differentiate between its natural variability and anthropogenic impacts. Spectrophotometric determination of pH - a key variable of the seawater carbon system - is particularly suited to achieve precise and drift-free measurements. However, available spectrophotometric instruments are not suitable for integration into automated measurement systems (e.g. FerryBox) since they do not meet the major requirements of reliability, stability, robustness and moderate cost. Here we report on the development and testing of a new indicator-based pH sensor that meets all of these requirements. This sensor can withstand the rough conditions during long-term deployments on ships of opportunity and is applicable to the open ocean as well as to coastal waters with a complex matrix and highly variable conditions. The sensor uses a high resolution CCD spectrometer as detector connected via optical fibers to a custom-made cuvette designed to reduce the impact of air bubbles. The sample temperature can be precisely adjusted (25 °C ± 0.006 °C) using computer-controlled power supplies and Peltier elements thus avoiding the widely used water bath. The overall setup achieves a measurement frequency of 1 min-1 with a precision of ±0.0007 pH units, an average offset of +0.0005 pH units to a reference system, and an offset of +0.0081 pH units to a certified standard buffer. Application of this sensor allows monitoring of seawater pH in autonomous underway systems, providing a key variable for characterization and understanding of the marine carbon system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With recently improved instrumental accuracy, the change in the heat content of the oceans and the corresponding contribution to the change of the sea level can be determined from in situ measurements of temperature variation with depth. Nevertheless, it would be favourable if the same changes could be evaluated from just the sea surface temperatures because the past record could then be reconstructed and future scenarios explored. Using a single column model we show that the average change in the heat content of the oceans and the corresponding contribution to a global change in the sea level can be evaluated from the past sea surface temperatures. The calculation is based on the time-dependent diffusion equation with the known fixed average upwelling velocity and eddy diffusivity, as determined from the steadystate limit. In this limit, the model reduces to the 1966 Munk profile of the potential temperature variation as a function of depth. There are no adjustable parameters in the calculation and the results are in good agreement with the estimates obtained from the in situ data. The method allows us to obtain relevant timescales and average temperature profiles. The evaluation of the thermosteric sea level change is extended back to the beginning of accurate sea surface temperature records. The changes in sea surface temperature from 1880 until the present time are estimated to have produced a thermosteric sea level rise of 35 mm. Application to future IPCC scenarios gives results similar to the average prediction of more complex climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily timeseries of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) estimated from the UK/US RAPID/MOCHA array at 26.5° N in the Atlantic are used to evaluate the MOC as simulated in two global circulation models: (I) an 8-member ensemble of the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, and (II) the ECCO-GODAE state estimate. In ECHAM5/MPI-OM, we find that the observed and simulated MOC have a similar variability and time-mean within the 99% confidence interval. In ECCOGODAE, we find that the observed and simulated MOC show a significant correlation within the 99% confidence interval. To investigate the contribution of the different transport components, the MOC is decomposed into Florida Current, Ekman and mid-ocean transports. In both models, the midocean transport is closely approximated by the residual of the MOC minus Florida Current and Ekman transports. As the models conserve volume by definition, future comparisons of the RAPID/MOCHA mid-ocean transport should be done against the residual transport in the models. The similarity in the variance and the correlation between the RAPID/MOCHA, and respectively ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECCO-GODAE MOC estimates at 26.5° N is encouraging in the context of estimating (natural) variability in climate simulations and its use in climate change signal-to-noise detection analyses. Enhanced confidence in simulated hydrographic and transport variability will require longer observational time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950-2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many parts of the world, climate projections for the next century depend on potential changes in the properties of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The current staus of these projections is assessed by examining a large set of climate model experiments prepared for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Firstly, the patterns and time series of present-day ENSO-like model variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean are compared with that observed. Next, the strength of the coupled atmosphere-ocean feedback loops responsible for generating the ENSO cycle in the models are evaluated. Finally, we consider the projections of the models with, what we consider to be, the most realistic ENSO variability. Two of the models considered do not have interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Three models show a very regular ENSO cycle due to a strong local wind feedback in the central Pacific and weak sea surface temperature (SST) damping. Six other models have a higher frequency ENSO cycle than observed due to a weak east Pacific upwelling feedback loop. One model has much stronger upwelling feedback than observed, and another one cannot be described simply by the analysis technique. The remaining six models have a reasonable balance of feedback mechanisms and in four of these the interannual mode also resembles the observed ENSO both spatially and temporally. Over the period 2051-2100 (under various scenarios) the most realistic six models show either no change in the mean state or a slight shift towards El Niño-like conditions with an amplitude at most a quarter of the present day interannual standard deviation. We see no statistically significant changes in amplitude of ENSO variability in the future, with changes in the standard deviation of a Southern Oscillation Index that are no larger than observed decadal variations. Uncertainties in the skewness of the variability are too large to make any statements about the future relative strength of El Niño and La Niña events. Based on this analysis of the multi-model ensemble, we expect very little influence of global warming on ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]