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Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator-prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986-2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983-2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator-prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1-3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk-grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than increased model parsimony. more...

Previous studies on intraguild predation have mainly focused on within-class assemblages, even though avian top predators may also influence mammalian mesopredator prey. By using nation-wide long-term data from Finland, northern Europe, we examined the impacts of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) together with red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and pine martens (Martes martes) on forest-dwelling herbivores, black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia). We hypothesized that eagles may alleviate the overall predation pressure on grouse by imposing intraguild predation risk on mesopredators. The predation impact of eagle was modelled using eagle density estimates and distance to eagle nest. Wildlife triangle counts were used as predation impact proxies of mammalian mesopredators and as measures of response in grouse. Our results show that eagle density correlated negatively with black grouse abundance indices while being positively associated with the proportion of juveniles in both grouse species, irrespective of the abundance of mesopredators. Yet, foxes and martens alone had a negative effect on the abundance indices and the proportion of young in the two grouse species. This suggests that the possible cascading effects of eagles are not mediated by decreased mesopredator numbers, but instead by fear effects. Alternatively, they may be mediated by other species than fox or marten studied here. In conclusion, we found support for the hypothesis that eagles provide protection for juvenile black and hazel grouse, whereas they are a threat for adult grouse. This important information helps us to better understand the role of avian top predators in terrestrial ecosystems. more...

Females may use condition-dependent sexual traits as reliable cues of male "quality" if the costs of the expression of such traits vary with male "quality", and if there is positive genetic correlation between male traits and condition. However, there are multiple ways of measuring the changes in body condition which reflect physiological costs meaning that the multifaceted nature of the physiological costs associated with the expression of sexual traits has rarely been thoroughly examined. In the lekking black grouse (Tetrao tetrix), mating success is highly skewed towards males defending central territories and having high survival rates to the following year, but the mechanisms underpinning such superior performance remain unclear. In this study, we quantified the changes in five measures of body condition before and after the mating season and related these changes to male lek performance (fighting rate, territory centrality and mating success) to understand the physiological costs of male reproductive effort. Between the two capture sessions, male body mass decreased significantly, blood parasite counts and plasma carotenoid concentration increased substantially while the total immunoglobulin concentration tended to increase. There was no overall impairment of individual body condition as the changes in the five measures of body condition were unrelated. Male fighting rate was unrelated to changes in the condition measures but males losing more body mass defended central territories and had high mating success. Therefore, females preferring central, dominant males may select males better able to afford the energetic costs of lek performance thereby effectively enforcing the honesty of male display. more...

The plant cycle hypothesis says that poor-quality food affects both herbivorous voles (Microtinae spp.) and grouse (Tetraonidae spp.) in vole decline years, leading to increased foraging effort in female grouse and thus a higher risk of predation by the goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Poor-quality food (mainly the bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus) for these herbivores is induced by seed masting failure in the previous year, when the bilberry is able to allocate resources for chemical defence (the mast depression hypothesis; MDH). The predation facilitation hypothesis (PFH) in turn states that increased searching activity of vole-eating predators during or after the decline year of voles disturbs incubating and brooding grouse females. The behaviours used by grouse to avoid these terrestrial predators make them more vulnerable to predation by goshawks. We tested the main predictions of the MDH and PFH by collecting long-term (21-year) data from black grouse Tetrao tetrix hens and cocks killed by breeding goshawks supplemented with indices of bilberry crop, vole abundance and small carnivores in the vicinity of Oulu, northern Finland. We did not find obvious support for the prediction of the MDH that there is a negative correlation of bilberry crop in year t with vole abundance and with predation index of black grouse hens in year t + 1. We did find obvious support for the prediction of the PFH that there is a positive correlation between predator abundance and predation index of grouse hens, because the stoat Mustela erminea abundance index was positively related to the predation index of black grouse hens. We suggest that changes in vulnerability of grouse hens may mainly be caused by the guild of vole-eating predators, who shift to alternative prey in the decline phase of the vole cycle, and thus chase grouse hens and chicks to the talons of goshawks and other avian predators. more...

The relationship between nest loss in boreal forest grouse and the fluctuations in small rodents was studied at Varaldskogen in southeast Norway during 1979-1986, covering two complete rodent cycles. Nest loss in capercaillie (N=174) and black grouse (N=81) was calculated according to Mayfield (1975) based on nests from radio-equipped hens (N=77) and nests found by other methods (N=178). Small rodent density was measured by snap trapping during spring and autumn. Losses varied as predicted by the classical alternative prey hypothesis (Hagen 1952 and Lack 1954, as elaborated by Angelstam et al. 1984): high losses during rodent crash years (85.5% capercaillie, 51% black grouse), and smaller losses during peak years (54.5% capercaillie, 32.5% black grouse). Losses were inversely related to autumn abundance of rodents in capercaillie (P more...

Two recent studies on territory occupancy rates of goshawk Accipiter gentilis and gyrfalcon Falco rusticolus report a 2-3-year-delayed numerical response to grouse numbers, which is a requirement for a hypothesis of predator-generated grouse cycles. The time lags were assumed to reflect the average age of sexual maturity in the raptor species. In southern Norway, however, subadult (two-year-old) goshawk hens occupied only 18-25% of territories where occupancy was not recorded in the preceding year, and there was no significant relationship between the proportion of subadults among recruits and grouse indices two years earlier. We argue that territory occupancy rates are not appropriate indices of total raptor population levels, but rather reflect the proportion of territorial pairs that attempt to nest. Because this depends on the body condition of the hens, fluctuations in other important winter resident prey species (most important for the goshawk) and winter weather (most important for the gyrfalcon) should also be addressed. During 1988-2006, the annual proportion of goshawk territories with recorded nesting attempts in southern Norway was most closely related to the preceding autumn's population indices of black grouse Tetrao tetrix and mountain hare Lepus timidus, whereas the annual proportion of gyrfalcon territories with observations of falcons or with confirmed breeding attempts in central Norway were best explained by population indices of willow grouse Lagopus lagopus and ptarmigan L. mutus from the previous autumn, and by December temperatures. Hence, our studies do not support the predation hypothesis for grouse cycles. more...

We tested the hypothesis that synchronous fluctuations in small game species in boreal Fennoscandia are caused by varying predation pressure. The main prey of predators are the cyclically superabundant voles. Small game species (alternative prey) are rare compared to voles. The following 4 predictions were checked: (1) Predators should shift their diet from main prey to alternative prey as main prey decline. - This was confirmed using data on red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) diet.; (2) The mortality rate of alternative prey should be inversely correlated to the abundance of main prey. - This was true for mountain hare (Lepus timidus L.) mortality rates and the rate of nest predation on black grouse (Tetrao tetrix L.).; (3) The total consumption of prey by all the predators should at least equal the critical losses in alternative prey during a decline year. - A tentative estimate of predator consumption amounted to 10 times the losses in grouse and hare.; and (4) The absence of synchrony between the species in the boreonemoral region should be associated with a more diverse diet of predators. - This was the case for red fox diets throughout Sweden. Although all 4 predictions were confirmed, we could not necessarily exclude other hypotheses involving changes in quality or quantity of plant food. more...

1. The population fluctuations in time in northern Sweden are examined for the following species: voles, mountain hare, willow grouse, black grouse, capercaillie, hazel hen, red fox, long-eared owl, Tengmalm's owl, and tularemia. Necessary population data have been obtained from the period 1963-1975/76 as revealed by catches, literature survey, hunting statistics, bird ringing, and obligatory reporting of tularemia in man. 2. The populations of the species under consideration are found to fluctuate synchronously in time and show a 3- or 4-year cycle for the period 1963-1975. Population peaks have occurred in connection with the peak densities of voles in the winters 1963-1964, 1966-1967, 1969-1970 and 1973-1974. 3. Voles caused extensive forest damage (mainly bark-eating) in at least the latter three peak winters. From consideration of the available literature it is apparent that bark is a marginal food. Thus, increased bark-eating during peak densities of voles in winter should be interpreted as a shortage of preferred food. 4. The species studied appear to form a unit (subsystem) within the boreal forest ecosystem. This idea is supported by the connecting predatorprey relationships and the demonstrated synchronous population fluctuations. The subsystem contains herbivores, their food vegetation, and predators. Tularemia is regarded as only one among other predators on voles and mountain hares. 5. It is postulated that voles play a central role in causing the overall synchronism in the population fluctuations of the subsystem. 6. The synchronous population fluctuations described can be explained by the following model for their regulation: a) An initial decline in vole numbers is brought about by food shortage at winter peak densities. b) Predator populations (built up with the help of the rich supply of voles) cooperate with food shortage and at some critical point predators alone are able to fulfil the decrease in vole numbers. c) Because of the decrease in vole numbers the predators are forced into a decline themselves and must turn to alternative prey species. Mountain hare and gamebird populations represent a low biomass compared with vole populations and predation thus causes the decline in numbers of these small game. d) Low numbers of predators and excessive food supply then allow voles, mountain hares, and gamebirds to increase again. e) The building up of vole populations sets the stage for another increase in the number of predators and a new cycle is started. more...

Population dynamics for voles (Cricetidae), Tengmalm's owl (Aegolius funereus (L.)), red fox (Vulpes vulpes (L.)) willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus (L.)), black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix (L.)), capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.), hazel hen (Tetrastes bonasia (L.)), mountain hare (Lepus timidus L.) and tularemia (Francisella tularensis (McCoy & Chapin)) and game bird recruitment were studied by index methods in northern Sweden. In addition contemporary temperature records and spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and pine (Pinus silvestris L.) cone crops (as indices for plant production) and the occurrence of forest damage, caused by voles eating bark, were studied. During 1970–80 two synchronous 4-year cycles were observed for voles, predators (Tengmalm's owl and red fox) and their alternative prey species (grouse and mountain hare). In grouse the change of numbers was correlated with that of recruitment. Autumn vole numbers peaked about a year before the other species and extensive forest damage occurred at winter peak densities of voles. These population fluctuations are consistent with a predator-prey model for their regulation. In short the model suggests that vole-food plant interactions trigger the cycle of voles, that voles generate the cycle of predators and that these in turn synchronize alternative prey populations to the others at vole declines. For voles, grouse and red fox the amplitude was higher in the first cycle compared to the second one whilst the opposite was true for the mountain hare. Although temperature and cone crops showed large interannual variations they still implied that herbivore food conditions were ‘better’ during the former cycle. Hence, the reduction of the amplitude of the vole cycle may be explained by inter-cyclic differences in plant food conditions, implying food shortage (as indicated by bark-eating) at different population levels. The similar decrease of grouse and red fox populations may also be explained by deteriorated food conditions and/or for the fox by an outbreak of sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiae var. vulpes). The increased amplitude of the mountain hare cycle was part of a long-term rise in numbers after a tularemia epidemic in 1967. This is interpreted as a recovery, probably towards the generally higher pre-epidemic population level. more...