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Hydroelectric dams have induced widespread loss, fragmentation and degradation of terrestrial habitats in lowland tropical forests. Yet their ecological impacts have been widely neglected, particularly in developing countries, which are currently earmarked for exponential hydropower development. Here we assess small mammal assemblage responses to Amazonian forest habitat insularization induced by the 28-year-old Balbina Hydroelectric Dam. We sampled small mammals on 25 forest islands (0.83–1466 ha) and four continuous forest sites in the mainland to assess the overall community structure and species-specific responses to forest insularization. We classified all species according to their degree of forest-dependency using a multi-scale approach, considering landscape, patch and local habitat characteristics. Based on 65,520 trap-nights, we recorded 884 individuals of at least 22 small mammal species. Species richness was best predicted by island area and isolation, with small islands ( 200 ha; 10.8 ± 1.3 species) and continuous forest sites (∞ ha; 12.5 ± 2.5 species) exhibited similarly high species richness. Forest-dependent species showed higher local extinction rates and were often either absent or persisted at low abundances on small islands, where non-forest-dependent species became hyper-abundant. Species capacity to use non-forest habitat matrices appears to dictate small mammal success in small isolated islands. We suggest that ecosystem functioning may be highly disrupted on small islands, which account for 62.7% of all 3546 islands in the Balbina Reservoir.

There is growing evidence that pathogens play a role in population declines and species extinctions. For small populations, disease-induced extinction may be especially probable. We estimated the susceptibility of two amphibian species of conservation concern (the dusky gopher frog [Lithobates sevosus] and boreal toad [Anaxyrus boreas boreas]) to an emerging pathogen (ranavirus) using laboratory challenge experiments, and combined these data with published demographic parameter estimates to simulate the potential effects of ranavirus exposure on extinction risk. We included effects of life stage during pathogen exposure, pathogen exposure interval, hydroperiod of breeding habitat, population carrying capacity, and immigration in simulations. We found that both species were highly susceptible to ranavirus when exposed to the pathogen in water at environmentally relevant concentrations. Dusky gopher frogs experienced 100 % mortality in four of six life stages tested. Boreal toads experienced 100 % mortality when exposed as tadpoles or metamorphs, which were the only life stages tested. Simulations showed population declines, greater extinction probability, and faster times to extinction with ranavirus exposure. These effects were more evident with more frequent pathogen exposure intervals and lower carrying capacity. Immigration at natural rates did little to mitigate effects of ranavirus exposure unless immigration occurred every 2 years. Our results demonstrate that disease-induced extinction by emerging pathogens, such as ranavirus, is possible, and that threat may be especially high for species with small population sizes. For the species in this study, conservation organizations should incorporate ranavirus surveillance into monitoring programs and devise intervention strategies in the event that disease outbreaks occur.

Current climate change affects the competitive ability and reproductive success of many species, leading to local extinctions, adjustment to novel local conditions by phenotypic plasticity or rapid adaptation, or tracking their optima through range shifts. However, many species have limited ability to expand to suitable areas. Altitudinal gradients, with abrupt changes in abiotic conditions over short distances, represent "natural experiments" for the evaluation of ecological and evolutionary responses under scenarios of climate change. Nothofagus pumilio is the tree species which dominates as pure stands the montane forests of Patagonia. We evaluated the adaptive value of variation in quantitative traits of N. pumilio under contrasting conditions of the altitudinal gradient with a long-term reciprocal transplant experimental design. While high-elevation plants show little response in plant, leaf, and phenological traits to the experimental trials, low-elevation ones show greater plasticity in their responses to changing environments, particularly at high elevation. Our results suggest a relatively reduced potential for evolutionary adaptation of high-elevation genotypes, and a greater evolutionary potential of low-elevation ones. Under global warming scenarios of forest upslope migration, high-elevation variants may be outperformed by low-elevation ones during this process, leading to the local extinction and/or replacement of these genotypes. These results challenge previous models and predictions expected under global warming for altitudinal gradients, on which the leading edge is considered to be the upper treeline forests.

Density compensation is a community-level phenomenon in which increases in the abundance of some species may offset the population decline, extirpation, or absence of other potentially interacting competitors. In this paper we examine the evidence for density compensation in neotropical primate assemblages using data from 56 hunted and nonhunted, but otherwise undisturbed, forest sites of Amazonia and the Guianan shields from which population density estimates are available for all diurnal primate species. We found good evidence of density compensation of the residual assemblage of nonhunted mid-sized species where the large-bodied (ateline) species had been severely reduced in numbers or driven to local extinction by subsistence hunters. Only weak evidence for density compensation, however, was detected in small-bodied species. These conclusions are based on the effects of ordinal measures of hunting pressure on the aggregate primate biomass across different size classes after controlling for the effects of forest type and productivity. These results are interpreted primarily in relation to patterns of niche partitioning between different primate functional groups or ecospecies. This study suggests that while overhunting drastically reduces the average body size in multi-species assemblages of forest vertebrates, depletion of large-bodied species is only partially offset (i.e. undercompensated) by smaller taxa.

Invasive generalist ectoparasites provide a tool to study factors affecting expansion rates. An increase in the number of host species may facilitate geographic range expansion by increasing the number of suitable habitats and by affecting local extinction and colonization rates. A geographic perspective on parasite host specificity and its implications on range expansion are, however, insufficiently understood. We conducted a field study to explore if divergent host specificity could explain the observed variation in expansion rates between Fennoscandian populations of the deer ked (Lipoptena cervi), which is a blood-feeding ectoparasitic fly of cervids. We found that the rapidly expanding eastern population in Finland appears to specialize on moose, whereas the slowly expanding western population in Norway breeds successfully on both moose and roe deer. The eastern population was also found to utilize the wild forest reindeer as an auxiliary host, but this species is apparently of low value for L. cervi in terms of adult maintenance, reproductive output and offspring quality. Abundant numbers of roe deer and white-tailed deer were observed to be apparently uninfected in Finland, suggesting that host use is not a plastic response to host availability, but rather a consequence of population-level evolutionary changes. Locally compatible hosts were found to be the ones sharing a long history with the deer ked in the area. Cervids that sustained adult deer keds also allowed successful reproduction. Thus, host use is probably determined by the ability of the adult to exploit particular host species. We conclude that a wide host range alone does not account for the high expansion rate or wide geographic distribution of the deer ked, although loose ecological requirements would increase habitat availability.

Movement has broad implications for many areas of biology, including evolution, community and population ecology. Movement is crucial in metapopulation ecology because it facilitates colonization and reduces the likelihood of local extinction via rescue effects. Most metapopulation modeling approaches describe connectivity using pair-wise Euclidean distances resulting in the simplifying assumption of a symmetric connectivity pattern. Yet, assuming symmetric connectivity when populations show net asymmetric movement patterns may result in biased estimates of colonization and extinction, and may alter interpretations of the dynamics and conclusions regarding the viability of metapopulations. Here, we use a 10-year time series on a wind-dispersed orchid Lepanthes rupestris that anchors its roots in patches of moss growing on trees or boulders along streams, to test for the role of connectivity asymmetries in explaining the colonization−extinction dynamics of this orchid in a network of 975 patches. We expected that wind direction could highly alter dispersal direction in this orchid. To account for this potential asymmetry, we modified the connectivity measure traditionally used in metapopulation models to allow for asymmetric effective distances between patches and subsequently estimated colonization and extinction probabilities using a dynamic occupancy modeling approach. Asymmetric movement was prevalent in the L. rupestris metapopulation and incorporating potential dispersal asymmetries resulted in higher colonization estimates in larger patches and more accurate models. Accounting for dispersal asymmetries may reveal connectivity effects where they were previously assumed to be negligible and may provide more reliable conclusions regarding the role of connectivity in patch dynamics.

Climate change will alter the forces of predation and competition in temperate ectotherm food webs. This may increase local extinction rates, change the fate of invasions and impede species reintroductions into communities. Invasion success could be modulated by traits (e.g., defenses) and adaptations to climate. We studied how different temperatures affect the time until extinction of species, using bitrophic and tritrophic planktonic food webs to evaluate the relative importance of predatory overexploitation and competitive exclusion, at 15 and 25 °C. In addition, we tested how inclusion of a subtropical as opposed to a temperate strain in this model food web affects times until extinction. Further, we studied the invasion success of the temperate rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus into the planktonic food web at 15 and 25 °C on five consecutive introduction dates, during which the relative forces of predation and competition differed. A higher temperature dramatically shortened times until extinction of all herbivore species due to carnivorous overexploitation in tritrophic systems. Surprisingly, warming did not increase rates of competitive exclusion among the tested herbivore species in bitrophic communities. Including a subtropical herbivore strain reduced top-down control by the carnivore at high temperature. Invasion attempts of temperate B. calyciflorus into the food web always succeeded at 15 °C, but consistently failed at 25 °C due to voracious overexploitation by the carnivore. Pre-induction of defenses (spines) in B. calyciflorus before the invasion attempt did not change its invasion success at the high temperature. We conclude that high temperatures may promote local extinctions in temperate ectotherms and reduce their chances of successful recovery.

Simple metapopulation models assume that local populations occur in patches of uniform quality habitat separated by non-habitat. However field metapopulations tend to show considerable spatial and temporal variation in patch quality, and hence probability of occupancy. This may have implications for the adequacy of simple metapopulation models in describing and predicting regional population dynamics of natural systems. This study investigated the effects of habitat characteristics on landscape-scale occupancy dynamics of two species of backswimmer (Notonecta, Hemiptera: Notonectidae) in small freshwater ponds. The results demonstrated clear links between habitat, pond occupancy and population turnover, particularly local extinction. There were considerable changes in the habitat of individual ponds between years, but local changes were not spatially correlated and the frequency distribution of habitat conditions at the landscape level remained similar in different years. Stable occupancy levels of Notonecta species appears to result from a balance of the rates of creation and loss of suitable habitat due to spatially uncorrelated habitat change. Systems such as this, where turnover is driven by habitat dynamics, demonstrate the potential value of incorporating the dynamics of habitat change into metapopulation models. Such developments are likely to improve predictions of landscape-scale occupancy dynamics, whilst also allowing patch-level predictions of occupancy, based on local habitat conditions.

We investigated whether plant species with longer-lived seeds in the soil had lower rates of local extinction between 1950 and 1985 than species with shorter-lived seeds in 26 intact remnants of extensively used calcareous grasslands. In a previous study we had found higher rates of local extinction for smaller populations, for species with shorter life cycles, and for species with higher habitat specificity. We compiled information on seed longevity from recent literature. Seed longevity had a highly significant effect on the rate of population extinction. Rates of local extinction were lower for species with seed longevity < 5 years (33.8%; 31 species) compared with species with shorter-lived seeds (1-5 years: 60.7%, 46 species; > 1 year: 58.5%, 81 species). The integration of seed longevity into our analysis did not change our previous conclusions on the dependence of local extinction rates on habitat specificity and on life form. Species in our data set with higher habitat specificity tended to have shorter-lived seeds than species with lower habitat specificity. Thus, most characteristic species of calcareous grassland do not persist in the seed bank and can not rely on this mechanism as a buffer against local extinction.

The migratory capacity of metamorphs and their later integration into local breeding populations was studied in a Bufo calamita metapopulation inhabiting the northern Rhineland, Germany (1991-1994). A new tagging method allowed unequivocal distinction among metamorphs (n = 1,709), which originated either from the spring-breeding cohort in 1991 and 1992 or from the summer-breeding cohort in 1991. The life history of batch-marked individuals was followed until adulthood, focusing on postmetamorphic dispersal, choice of breeding locality and timing of adult reproduction. Almost all metamorphs left the patches used for breeding within a few weeks after emergence. They were found at about the same density in all favourable microhabitats in a radius of up to 2 km around their native patch. This demonstrates that even small toadlets (6-11 mm snout-to-vent length) migrate distances of several hundred metres within a short time and that they significantly help prevent local extinction in sink populations (rescue effect). Recaptures of reproductive adults originating from tagged metamorphs were limited to males belonging to the 1997 spring and summer cohorts. The absence of recaptured females was probably due to their greater vagility and later sexual maturation. First-breeding males (2 years old) without exception joined the breeding cohort from which they originated: early breeders originated from spawn of the spring cohort, mid-summer breeders from spawn of the summer cohort. This result is in accordance with the hypothesis that the integration of first breeders to a specific breeding cohort is genetically controlled in central European natterjacks. The exchange of individuals between different cohorts in the same patch is considerably less than the migratory exchange between the same breeding cohorts among local populations, as predicted from the allozyme data.

We found several rare UK butterflies to be restricted to relatively large and non-isolated habitat patches, while small patches and those that are isolated from population sources remain vacant. These patterns of occurrence are generated by the dynamic processes of local extinction and colonization. Habitat patches act as terrestrial archipelagos in which long-term population persistence, and hence effective long-term conservation, rely on networks of suitable habitats, sufficiently close to allow natural dispersal.

The more individuals hypothesis (MIH) postulates that productivity increases species richness by increasing mean equilibrium population size, thereby reducing the probability of local extinction. We tested the MIH for invertebrates colonizing microcosms that simulated tree holes by manipulating productivity through additions of leaf or animal detritus and subsequently determining the relationships among richness, total abundance, abundance per species, and measures of productivity. We quantified productivity as the rate of microorganism protein synthesis, microorganism metabolic rate, nutrient ion concentration, and type and amount of detritus. Microcosms with animal detritus attracted more species, more individuals per species, and more total individuals than did microcosms with similar amounts of leaf detritus. Relationships between richness or abundance and productivity varied with date. Richness in June increased as a linear function of productivity, whereas the power function predicted by the MIH fit best in July. Abundance in June and July was best described by a power function of productivity, but the linear function predicted by the MIH fit best in September. Abundance per species was best described by a power function of productivity in June and July. Path analysis showed that the indirect effect of productivity through abundance on richness that is predicted by MIH was important in all months, and that direct links between productivity and richness were unnecessary. Our results support many of the predictions of the MIH, but they also suggest that the effects of abundance on richness may be more complex than expected.

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are

This paper considers, for eight species of woodland bird, the factors that influenced both local extinctions and recolonisations in 145 woods over 3 years. In all species, probability of local extinction was inversely related to population size; most local extinctions occurred in woods containing one to three breeding pairs. However, considerable variation in extinction probabilities occurred between species and between years. In addition, the suitability of habitat within a wood (more extinctions in less suitable woods) was important for wren Troglodytes troglodytes, song thrush Turdus philomelos and blue tit Parus caeruleus; also, the structure of the surrounding landscape was important for blue tit, great tit Parus major, and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs (more extinctions in localities with less woodland). In only two species was the probability of recolonisation related to any of the measured variables. Wrens were more likely to recolonise larger woods, whereas song thrushes were more likely to recolonise woods with a high habitat suitability rating and those which are more isolated from other woodland.

We studied spatial and temporal effects of local extinction of the plains vizcacha (Lagostomus maximus) on plant communities following widespread, natural extinctions of vizcachas in semi-arid scrub of Argentina. Spatial patterns in vegetation were examined along transects extending outward from active and extinct vizcacha burrow systems. Responses of vegetation to removal of vizcachas were assessed experimentally with exclosures and by documenting vegetation dynamics for 6 years following extinctions. Transect data demonstrated clear spatial patterns in plant cover, particularly an increase in perennial grasses, outward from active vizcacha burrows. These patterns were consistent with predictions based on foraging theory and studies that document grasses as the preferred food of vizcachas. Removal of vizcachas, experimentally and with extinctions, resulted in an immediate increase in perennial and annual forbs indicating that intense herbivory can depress forb cover, as well as grasses. After a 1-year lag following cessation of herbivory, cover of grasses increased. Forbs declined as grasses increased. The long-term effect of extinction of vizcachas was a conversion of colony sites from open patches dominated by forbs to dense bunch grass characteristic of the matrix. Major changes in vegetation occurred within 2–3 years after extinction, resulting in a large pulse of landscape change. However, some species of grasses were uncommon until 5–6 years after the vizcacha extinction. With extinction and colonization, vizcachas generate a dynamic mosaic of patches on the landscape and create temporal, as well as spatial, heterogeneity in semi-arid scrub.

The population dynamics of insects in a spatially fragmented environment were studied by examining three main aspects of their ecology, namely, rates of local population extinction, density dependence in population change, and movements between populations. Ten phytophagous insects and seven parasitoids inhabiting the flowerheads of two herbaceous plants, Centaurea nigra and Arctium minus, were studied by monitoring their populations on more than 50 patches of each plant, scattered over 5 km 2 of arable farmland. The results were used to test the relative importance of immigration and of local population regulation to population persistence. This paper describes the rates of local extinction of the various species and the density-dependent factors operating on their populations. Local extinction was found to be a regular feature of these populations, especially on the smaller patches of the plants. Density dependence was identified in the changes in population sizes between generations of eight species (five herbivores and three parasitoids). Parasitoids appeared to be incapable of regulating their host populations, in the four host species for which we have data. Populations of all species were, however, limited by their food resources, and their numbers tracked changes, both spatially and temporally, in resource availability. The implications of these findings to population theory are discussed.

The migratory and reproductive behaviour ofBufo calamita was studied at four neighbouring breeding sites in the northern Rhineland, Germany, from 1986 to 1991. Radio telemetry and marking systems based on toe-clipping and on microchips were used to follow the tracks of toads and for individual recognition. Emphasis lay on estimates of (1) the exchange of reproductive individuals between neighbouring sites, and (2) the reproductive success at each site. Allozyme electrophoresis served to assess the genetic diversity of local populations. More than 90% of all reproductive males showed a lifelong fidelity to the site of first breeding, whereas females did not prefer certain breeding sites. Due to the female-biased exchange of individuals among neighbouring sites the genetic distance between local populations was generally low but increased with geographical distance. This pattern of spatial relations is consistent with the structure of a metapopulation. Morever, up to three mass immigrations of males per breeding period, replacing previously reproductive individuals, suggested the existence of temporal populations successively reproducing at the same locality. Genetic distances were considerably greater between temporal populations than between local ones, indicating partial reproductive isolation. In fact, an exchange of reproductive individuals between the temporal populations at each site was not detected, but gene flow due to the recruitment of first-breeders originating from offspring other than their own seems probable. Thus, natterjack metapopulations consist of interacting local and temporal populations. The reproductive success differed considerably among the four sites and also between the temporal populations. Three out of four local populations had low reproductive success as well as the latest temporal population. The persistence of these populations depended entirely on the recruitment of juveniles from the only self-sustaining local population. This “rescue-effect” impeded local extinction. The discussion focuses on the modifications required to fit the classical metapopulation concept to the empirical findings and their consequences for the dynamics of amphibian metapopulations.

The local species richness of four different grassland fields fell an average of 37% during a 1988 drought that decreased above-ground living plant mass by an average of 47%. Despite the return to more normal plant mass and precipitation during the next two years, there was no significant recovery in species richness in the 46 permanent plots, suggesting that local species richness became recruitment limited. The drought led to the loss of annual species independent of their abundance. For perennial grasses, perennial forbs, legumes and woody species, the probability of a species being lost from a plot was significantly negatively correlated with its predrought abundance. These results demonstrate that environmentally extreme conditions can limit species richness by causing the local extinction of rare species. Because droughts of this intensity occur about every 50 years in the prairie, periodic drought may have limited prairie diversity. Moreover, if the accumulation of greenhouse gases leads to a more variable or extreme climate, it could cause increased rates of species extinctions.

Simulation models have recently been used to suggest that spatial heterogeneity, acting on small spatial scales within local populations, may allow parasitoids and other natural enemies to "regulate" host or prey populations in ways that would not be detected by conventional (k-factor) analyses of life table data. However, additional study of these models suggests that local extinction may be a frequent event in the simulated interactions. The "spreading of risk" concept appears more applicable to the simulated populations than a classical view emphasizing tight regulation around stable equilibrium points. The spreading of risk viewpoint also appears to shed additional light on questions raised in the recent debate between Dempster (1983); Hassel (1985); Dempster and Pollard (1986), concerning the modeling of spatial heterogeneity and "regulation" in temperate-zone insect populations.

The results of seven breeding bird censuses on an upland site in Connecticut from 1953 to 1976 are analyzed and related to changes in vegetation and surrounding urbanization during the same period. Turnover of breeding bird species on the old-field portion of the site was due to vegetational changes that caused the extinction of species preferring open shrub habitats and the colonization of species preferring forest. Turnover of breeding birds on the forest portion was due to its increasing isolation from similar forest habitat, resulting in the local extinction of forest interior species and the colonization of species characteristic of suburban habitats. The study site is too small for the preservation of forest interior bird species. It must be coordinated with larger preserves in a regional context if it is to be useful in preventing the regional extinction of forest interior bird species.

Empirical evidence from studies of the sea urchin Diadema antillarum suggests that this organism widely disperses its offspring, that both recruitment and mortality rates are independent of local densities, and that local food availability does not regulate local population sizes. These attributes would indicate that local populations are generally open and recruitment-limited. Given that current populations have been devastated by a 1983–1984 mass mortality event which spread throughout the range of this species, we examine current population trends and evaluate the prospects for population recovery under the assumptions of recruitment-limitation and density-independent rates of recruitment and mortality. Specifically, we evaluate the dynamics of five, local populations at Lameshur Bay, St. John, U.S.V.I. in order to 1) determine current rates of recruitment and mortality, 2) predict population densities based on the above assumptions, 3) compare predicted densities against observed 1984–1988 densities, and 4) predict future population densities based on current trends. We estimate current recruitment rates at 0.02–0.11 individuals/m2/yr and per capita mortality rates at 0.27–0.47 deaths/yr. Over the period 1985–1988, predicted densities based on these annual rates did not differ significantly from actual observed densities. Therefore, the assumptions that recruitment and mortality rates are density-independent and that local populations are recruitment-limited are sufficient, at present, to adequately predict current population trends. These trends indicate no recovery towards pre-mass mortality densities. The above description of the dynamics of open, recruitment-limited populations may be appropriate for a wide variety of organisms. We note the prevalence of animals with extensive larval dispersal capabilities. Populations located near the limits of their distribution, in freshwater streams and ponds, mountain tops, or other similarly isolated populations may also be subject to recruitment-limitation. Remote, recruitment-limited populations are likely to be more susceptible to local extinction than less remote populations. Dispersal distances and the scale of the processes controlling recruitment and mortality are important determinants of the degree of openness of local populations.

Mustela nivalis and M. erminea, two sympatric species of weasels of superficially similar appearance and habits, have different breeding and foraging strategies associated with the difference in their body size. M. nivalis is more efficient in exploiting small rodent prey, and can breed rapidly to take immediate advantage of rodent peaks, but is vulnerable to local extinction during rodent declines. M. erminea has more generalized food habits, and is the larger and probably the dominant species, but is limited by delayed implantation to producing only one litter a year. M. nivalis is therefore superior in exploitation competition, and erminea in interference competition. We offer the hypothesis that the co-existence of the two species is permitted by a balance of these competitive advantages determined, at a given time or place, by the heterogeneity of the environment and the distribution of the prey fauna. We use this hypothesis to explain cases where co-existence has either broken down or is not recorded (the results of simultaneous introductions to New Zealand and Terschelling Island, and of myxomatosis in Britain, and the distribution of nivalis and Erminea on the offshore islands of Britain). We argue that the diversity and size distribution of the prey fauna of an island (which are both related to its area and isolation) are important in deciding the species and size of mustelids surviving there; for example, we suggest that nivalis was present in Ireland in immediate post-glacial times but became extinct with the lemmings.