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Species with large local abundances tend to occupy more sites. One of the mechanisms proposed to explain this widely reported inter-specific relationship is a cross-scale hypothesis based on dynamics at the population level. Called the vital rates mechanism, it uses within-population demographic processes of population growth and density dependence to predict when inter-specific abundance-occupancy relationships can arise and when these relationships can weaken and even turn negative. Even though the vital rates mechanism is mathematically simple, its predictions has never been tested directly because of the difficulty estimating the demographic parameters involved. Here, using a recently introduced mark-recapture analysis method, we show that there is a weakly positive relationship between abundance and occupancy among 17 bird species. Our results are consistent with the predictions of the vital rate mechanism regarding the demographic processes that are expected to weaken this relationship. Specifically, we find that intrinsic growth rate and local abundance are weakly correlated; and density dependence strength shows considerable variation across species. Variability in density dependence strength is related to variability in species-level local average abundance and intrinsic growth rate; species with lower growth rate have higher abundance and are strongly regulated by density dependent processes, especially acting on survival rates. Species with higher growth rate, on average, have lower abundance and are more weakly regulated by density dependent processes especially acting on fecundity. More generally, our findings support a cross scale mechanism of macroecological abundance-occupancy relationship emerging from density-dependent dynamics at the population level.

In recent decades, climate change has disrupted forest functioning by promoting large-scale mortality events, declines in productivity and reduced regeneration. Understanding the temporal dynamics and spatial extent of these changes is critical given the essential ecosystem services provided by forests. As the most widespread tree species in North America, quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is well suited for studying the dynamics of tree populations during a period of unprecedented climate change. Synthesizing continent-wide data, we show that mortality rates of mature aspen stems have increased over the past two-to-three decades, while relative gains in aspen basal area have decreased during the same period. Patterns were pervasive across multiple stand size classes and composition types in western North America biomes, suggesting that trends in demographic rates were not simply a reflection of stand development and succession. Our review of the literature revealed that increased aspen mortality and reduced growth rates were most often associated with hotter, drier conditions, whereas reduced recruitment was most often associated with herbivory. Furthermore, interactions between climate and competition, as well as climate and insect herbivory, had important, context-dependent effects on mortality and growth, respectively. Our analyses of aspen across its entire geographic range indicate that this important tree species is experiencing substantial increases in mortality and decreases in population growth rates across multiple biomes. If such trends are not accompanied by increased recruitment, we expect that the reduced dominance of aspen in forests will lead to major declines in the many essential ecosystem services it provides.

In grasslands worldwide, modified fire cycles are accelerating herbaceous species extinctions. Fire may avert population declines by increasing survival, reproduction, or both. Survival and growth after fires may be promoted by removal of competitors or biomass and increasing resource availability. Fire-stimulated reproduction may also contribute to population growth through bolstered recruitment. We quantified these influences of fire on population dynamics in Echinacea angustifolia, a perennial forb in North American tallgrass prairie. We first used four datasets, 7–21 years long, to estimate fire’s influences on survival, flowering, and recruitment. We then used matrix projection models to estimate growth rates across several burn frequencies in five populations, each with one to four burns over 15 years. Finally, we estimated the contribution of fire-induced changes in each vital rate to changes in population growth. Population growth rates generally increased with burning. The demographic process underpinning these increases depended on juvenile survival. In populations with high juvenile survival, fire-induced increases in seedling recruitment and juvenile survival enhanced population growth. However, in populations with low juvenile survival, small changes in adult survival drove growth rate changes. Regardless of burn frequencies, our models suggest populations are declining and that recruitment and juvenile survival critically influence population response to fire. However, crucially, increased seedling recruitment only increases population growth rates when enough new recruits reach reproductive maturity. The importance of recruitment and juvenile survival is especially relevant for small populations in fragmented habitats subject to mate-limiting Allee effects and inbreeding depression, which reduce recruitment and survival, respectively.

Determining the factors driving cyclic dynamics in species has been a primary focus of ecology. For snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), explanations of their 10-year population cycles most commonly feature direct predation during the peak and decline, in combination with their curtailment in reproduction. Hares are thought to stop producing third and fourth litters during the cyclic decline and do not recover reproductive output for several years. The demographic effects of these reproductive changes depend on the consistency of this pattern across cycles, and the relative contribution to population change of late-litter versus early litter juveniles. We used monitoring data on snowshoe hares in Yukon, Canada, to examine the contribution of late-litter juveniles to the demography of their cycles, by assigning litter group for individuals caught in autumn based on body size and capture date. We found that fourth-litter juveniles occur consistently during the increase phase of each cycle, but are rare and have low over-winter survival (0.05) suggesting that population increase is unlikely to be caused by their occurrence. The proportion of third-litter juveniles captured in the autumn remains relatively constant across cycle phases, while over-winter survival rates varies particularly for earlier-litter juveniles (0.14–0.39). Juvenile survival from all litters is higher during the population increase and peak, relative to the low and decline. Overall, these results suggest that the transition from low phase to population growth may stem in large part from changes in juvenile survival as opposed to increased reproductive output through the presence of a 4th litter.

Supercolonial ants are among the largest cooperative units in nature, attaining extremely high densities. How these densities feed back into their population growth rates and how abundance and extrinsic factors interact to affect their population dynamics remain open questions. We studied how local worker abundance and extrinsic factors (rain, tree density) affect population growth rate and spread in the invasive big-headed ant, which is disrupting a keystone mutualism between acacia trees and native ants in parts of East Africa. We measured temporal changes in big-headed ant (BHA) abundance and rates of spread over 20 months along eight transects, extending from areas behind the front with high BHA abundances to areas at the invasion front with low BHA abundances. We used models that account for negative density dependence and incorporated extrinsic factors to determine what variables best explain variation in local population growth rates. Population growth rates declined with abundance, however, the strength of density dependence decreased with abundance. We suggest that weaker density dependence at higher ant abundances may be due to the beneficial effect of cooperative behavior that partially counteracts resource limitation. Rainfall and tree density had minor effects on ant population dynamics. BHA spread near 50 m/year, more than previous studies reported and comparable to rates of spread of other supercolonial ants. Although we did not detect declines in abundance in areas invaded a long time ago (> 10 years), continued monitoring of abundance at invaded sites may help to better understand the widespread collapse of many invasive ants.

How environmental factors influence population dynamics in long-distance migrants is complicated by the spatiotemporal diversity of the environment the individuals experience during the annual cycle. The effects of weather on several different aspects of life history have been well studied, but a better understanding is needed on how weather affects population dynamics through the different associated traits. We utilise 77 years of data from pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), to identify the most relevant climate signals associated with population growth rate. The strongest signals on population growth were observed from climate during periods when the birds were not present in the focal location. The population decline was associated with increasing precipitation in the African non-breeding quarters in the autumn (near the arrival of migrants) and with increasing winter temperature along the migration route (before migration). The number of fledglings was associated positively with increasing winter temperature in non-breeding area and negatively with increasing winter temperature in Europe. These possible carry-over effects did not arise via timing of breeding or clutch size but the exact mechanism remains to be revealed in future studies. High population density and low fledgling production were the intrinsic factors reducing the breeding population. We conclude that weather during all seasons has the potential to affect the reproductive success or population growth rate of this species. Our results show how weather can influence the population dynamics of a migratory species through multiple pathways, even at times of the annual cycle when the birds are in a different location than the climate signal. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00442-020-04817-3.

Amphibian life history traits are affected by temperature and precipitation. Yet, connecting these relationships to population growth, especially for multiple populations within a species, is lacking and precludes our understanding of amphibian population dynamics and distributions. Therefore, we constructed integral projection models for five populations along an elevational gradient to determine how climate and season affect population growth of a terrestrial salamander Plethodon montanus and the importance of demographic vital rates to population growth under varying climate scenarios. We found that population growth was typically higher at the highest elevation compared to the lower elevations, whereas varying inactive season conditions, represented by the late fall, winter and early spring, produced a greater variation in population growth than varying active season conditions (late spring, summer, and early fall). Furthermore, survival and growth were consistently more important, as measured by elasticity, compared to fecundity, and large females had the greatest elasticity compared to all other body sizes. Our results suggest that changing inactive season conditions, especially those that would affect the survival of large individuals, may have the greatest impact on population growth. We recommend future experimental studies focus on the inactive season to better elucidate the mechanisms by which these conditions can affect survival.

Natural variation in light has historically correlated with seasonality, providing an honest cue to organisms with seasonal life history cycles. However, with the onset of widespread light at night (LAN), the reliability of light as a cue has decreased in polluted areas, making its timing or intensity potentially clash with temperature trends. These clashing cues may influence biological systems on multiple levels. Yet, a few studies have connected behavioral underpinnings and larger community-level processes, resulting in a knowledge gap bridging individual-, population-, and community-level responses to mismatched cues. We experimentally investigated impacts of cool temperature and LAN on a lady beetle-aphid-fava system to test how light and temperature influenced aphid population growth and their underlying behavioral drivers. We used Coccinella septempunctata and Coleomegilla maculata beetles to understand the interaction of the environment and predation on pea aphid (Acyrthosiphon pisum) population growth. Aphids and their predators reacted differently to variation in light and temperature, influencing the strength of aphid-driven and predator-driven dynamics in the different conditions. We observed evidence of aphid-driven dynamics in the cool, light conditions where aphids excel and exhibited strong anti-predator behavior. In contrast, we found stronger predator-driven dynamics in warm conditions where lady beetle predatory success was higher. Overall, we found that LAN has context-dependent effects on insect communities due to the varied responses each player has to its environment.

The influence of resource limitation on spatio-temporal population dynamics is a fundamental theme in ecology and the concepts of carrying capacity, density dependence and population synchrony are central to this theme. The life history characteristics of seabirds, which include use of disjunct patches of breeding habitat, high coloniality during breeding, strong philopatry, and central-place foraging, make this group well suited to studying this paradigm. Here, we investigate whether density-dependent processes are starting to limit population growth in the Adelie penguin metapopulation breeding in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, after 6 decades of growth. Our finding that the regional growth rate has slowed in recent decades, and that growth is slowing differentially across local populations as availability of breeding habitat and possibly food resources decrease, supports the notion of density-dependent regulation. Our observation of the first new colonisation of a breeding patch in a half-century of population growth by this highly philopatric species is further evidence for this. Given these emerging patterns of spatio-temporal population dynamics, this metapopulation may be at a point where the rate of change in density-dependent processes and rare events such as colonisations accelerates into the future, potentially providing new insights into spatio-temporal metapopulation dynamics of a long-lived species over a short time-frame. Continued long-term study of populations experiencing these circumstances provides an opportunity to expedite advances in understanding metapopulation processes. Our study highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity and the mosaic of abiotic and biotic features of landscapes and seascapes in shaping species' metapopulation dynamics.

Increasingly frequent warm periods during winter, which are associated with climate change, may cause mismatches between the colony phenology of the western honey bee, Apis mellifera L., and their floral resources. Warmer winter periods can also affect colony brood rearing activity and consequently the reproduction of the invasive brood parasite Varroa destructor Anderson and Trueman. Until now little is known about the effects of climate change on biotic interactions in such a multitrophic system comprising flowering plants, a pollinator, and its parasite. We performed a reciprocal translocation experiment with honey bee colonies to simulate climate change-induced phenology shifts. Honey bee brood phenology was highly sensitive to environmental conditions in late winter. Colonies in which phenology was experimentally delayed had smaller worker populations in early spring and reduced amounts of stored honey during the following months. During summer, the varroa load in colonies with non-shifted phenology was three times higher than in colonies with delayed phenology. High varroa loads during summer were negatively correlated with worker population growth. Despite a remarkable resilience of colony development to phenology shifts, our results show that mismatches between the phenology of honey bee colonies and flowering plants can affect the build-up of resource stores. Further, an advanced onset of brood rearing activity after hibernation can reinforce the negative impact of the brood parasite V. destructor. We conclude that trade-offs between synchronisation with earlier flower phenology and prolonged brood phases with build-up of varroa populations might constrain the honey bees' capability to adapt to climate warming.

Predicting long-term impacts of introduced species is challenging, since stressors related to global change can influence species-community interactions by affecting both demographic rates of invasive species and the structure of the invaded ecosystems. Invasive species can alter ecosystem structure over time, further complicating interactions between invasive species and invaded communities in response to additional stressors. Few studies have considered how cumulative impacts of species invasion and global change on the structure of invaded ecosystems may influence persistence and population growth of introduced species. Here, we present an empirically based population model for an invasive epiphytic bryozoan that can dramatically alter the structure of its invaded kelp bed ecosystems. We use this model to predict the response of invasive species to climate change and associated changes in the invaded community. Population growth of the bryozoan increased under near-future projections of increasing ocean temperature; however, the magnitude of population growth depended on the community composition of invaded kelp beds. Our results suggest that, in some cases, indirect effects of climate change mediated through changes to the structure of the invaded habitat can modulate direct effects of climate change on invasive species, with consequences for their long-term ecological impact. Our findings have important implications for management of invasive species, as modifying invaded habitats at local to regional scales may be more logistically feasible than addressing stressors related to global climate change.

Species with large local abundances tend to occupy more sites. One of the mechanisms proposed to explain this widely reported inter-specific relationship is a cross-scale hypothesis based on dynamics at the population level. Called the vital rates mechanism; it uses within-population demographic processes of population growth and density dependence to predict when inter-specific abundance-occupancy relationships can arise and when these relationships can weaken and even turn negative. Even though the vital rates mechanism is mathematically simple, its predictions has never been tested directly because of the difficulty estimating the demographic parameters involved. Here, using a recently introduced mark-recapture analysis method, we show that there is no relationship between abundance and occupancy among 17 bird species. Our results are consistent with the predictions of the vital rate mechanism regarding the demographic processes that are expected to weaken this relationship. Specifically, we find that intrinsic growth rate and local abundance are not correlated, and density dependence strength shows considerable variation across species. Variability in density dependence strength is related to variability in species-level local average abundance and intrinsic growth rate; species with lower growth rate have higher abundance and are strongly regulated by density dependent processes, especially acting on survival rates. More generally, our findings support a cross-scale mechanism of macroecological abundance-occupancy relationship emerging from density-dependent dynamics at the population level.

Anthropogenic impacts are expected to increase the co-occurrence of stressors that can fundamentally alter ecosystem structure and function. To cope with stress, many organisms locally adapt, but how such adaptations affect the ability of an organism to manage co-occurring stressors is not well understood. In aquatic ecosystems, elevated temperatures and harmful algal blooms are common co-stressors. To better understand the role and potential trade-offs of local adaptations for mitigating the effects of stressors, Daphnia pulicaria genotypes that varied in their ability to consume toxic cyanobacteria prey (i.e., three tolerant and three sensitive) were exposed to five diets that included combinations of toxic cyanobacteria, Microcystis aeruginosa, and a green alga, Ankistrodesmus falcatus, under two temperatures (20 °C vs. 28 °C). A path analysis was conducted to understand how local adaptations affect energy allocation to intermediate life history traits (i.e., somatic growth, fecundity, survival) that maximize Daphnia fitness (i.e., population growth rate). Results from the 10-day study show that tolerant Daphnia genotypes had higher fitness than sensitive genotypes regardless of diet or temperature treatment, suggesting toxic cyanobacteria tolerance did not cause a decrease in fitness in the absence of cyanobacteria or under elevated temperatures. Results from the path analysis demonstrated that toxic cyanobacteria had a stronger effect on life history traits than temperature and that population growth rate was mainly constrained by reduced fecundity. These findings suggest that local adaptations to toxic cyanobacteria and elevated temperatures are synergistic, leading to higher survivorship of cyanobacteria-tolerant genotypes during summer cyanobacterial bloom events.

For species inhabiting areas at the limit of their environmental tolerance, extreme events often drive population persistence. However, because extreme events are uncommon, their effects on population dynamics of expanding species are poorly known. We examined how extreme climate events in winter and summer affected three populations of wild turkeys occupying a natural climate gradient at the northern edge of their range. First, we examined the mechanism by which vital rates affect the population growth rate. Second, we developed a climate-dependent structured population model. Finally, by linking this population model to IPCC-class climate projections, we projected wild turkey population abundance in response to the frequency of extreme snow events by 2100 for the northernmost population. We showed that the population dynamics of the three populations is driven through different pathways expected from the theory of invading population dynamics; that those populations were mainly limited by heavy snow that decreases winter survival by restraining food access; and that a population of immigrant is projected to decline at the northern species range. This study exemplifies how extreme events affect population dynamics and range expansion of temperate species at the northern edge of the distribution.

The influence of resource limitation on spatio-temporal population dynamics is a fundamental theme in ecology and the concepts of carrying capacity, density dependence and population synchrony are central to this theme. The life history characteristics of seabirds, which include use of disjunct patches of breeding habitat, high coloniality during breeding, strong philopatry, and central-place foraging, make this group well suited to studying this paradigm. Here, we investigate whether density-dependent processes are starting to limit population growth in the Adélie penguin metapopulation breeding in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, after 6 decades of growth. Our finding that the regional growth rate has slowed in recent decades, and that growth is slowing differentially across local populations as availability of breeding habitat and possibly food resources decrease, supports the notion of density-dependent regulation. Our observation of the first new colonisation of a breeding patch in a half-century of population growth by this highly philopatric species is further evidence for this. Given these emerging patterns of spatio-temporal population dynamics, this metapopulation may be at a point where the rate of change in density-dependent processes and rare events such as colonisations accelerates into the future, potentially providing new insights into spatio-temporal metapopulation dynamics of a long-lived species over a short time-frame. Continued long-term study of populations experiencing these circumstances provides an opportunity to expedite advances in understanding metapopulation processes. Our study highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity and the mosaic of abiotic and biotic features of landscapes and seascapes in shaping species' metapopulation dynamics.

Understanding the mechanisms underlying population decline is a critical challenge for conservation biologists. Both deterministic (e.g. habitat loss, fragmentation, and Allee effect) and stochastic (i.e. demographic and environmental stochasticity) demographic processes are involved in population decline. Simultaneously, a decrease of population size has far-reaching consequences for genetics of populations by increasing the risk of inbreeding and the strength of genetic drift, which together inevitably results in a loss of genetic diversity and a reduced effective population size ( $$N_{{\text{e}}}$$ ). These genetic factors may retroactively affect vital rates (a phenomenon coined ‘inbreeding depression’), reduce population growth, and accelerate demographic decline. To date, most studies that have examined the demographic and genetic processes driving the decline of wild populations have neglected their spatial structure. In this study, we examined demographic and genetic factors involved in the decline of a spatially structured population of a lekking bird, the western capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus). To address this issue, we collected capture-recapture and genetic data over a 6-years period in the Vosges Mountains (France). Our study showed that the population of T. urogallus experienced a severe decline between 2010 and 2015. We did not detect any Allee effect on survival and recruitment. By contrast, individuals of both sexes dispersed to avoid small subpopulations, thus suggesting a potential behavioral response to a mate finding Allee effect. In parallel to this demographic decline, the population showed low levels of genetic diversity, high inbreeding and low effective population sizes at both subpopulation and population levels. Despite this, we did not detect evidence of inbreeding depression: neither adult survival nor recruitment were affected by individual inbreeding level. Our study underlines the benefit from combining demographic and genetic approaches to investigate processes that are involved in population decline.

Introduced plants can positively affect population viability by augmenting the diet of native herbivores, but can negatively affect populations if they are subpar or toxic resources. In organisms with complex life histories, such as insects specializing on host plants, the impacts of a novel host may differ across life stages, with divergent effects on population persistence. Most research on effects of novel hosts has focused on adult oviposition preference and larval performance, but adult preference may not optimize offspring performance, nor be indicative of host quality from a demographic perspective. We compared population growth rates of the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly, Euphydryas phaeton, on an introduced host, Plantago lanceolata (English plantain), and the native host Chelone glabra (white turtlehead). Contrary to the previous findings suggesting that P. lanceolata could be a population sink, we found higher population growth rates (λ) on the introduced than the native host, even though some component parameters of λ were higher on the native host. Our findings illustrate the importance of moving beyond preference-performance studies to integrate vital rates across all life stages for evaluating herbivore-host plant relationships. Single measures of preference or performance are not sufficient proxies for overall host quality nor do they provide insights into longer term consequences of novel host plant use. In our system, in particular, P. lanceolata may buffer checkerspot populations when the native host is limiting, but high growth rates could lead to crashes over longer time scales.

Behavioural plasticity during habitat selection plays a key role in determining whether organisms may thrive under human-induced rapid environmental changes. As organisms rely on environmental cues to make decisions, these behavioural responses may be maladaptive. We studied the European stonechat Saxicola torquatus as a model open-habitat bird species breeding in three structurally different land-use types generated by agriculture and forestry activities. In this mosaic landscape, we compared the relative attractiveness and the breeding habitat quality of intensive grassland, Christmas tree plantations and clear-cut patches in plantation forests to test whether habitat selection was adaptive. We examined the settlement pattern of territorial males to evaluate habitat preference. We recorded key parameters reflecting reproductive performances, adult and first-year survival to estimate the individual fitness of the birds and assess the quality of the different land-use types for breeding. Stonechats preferentially settled in clear-cut patches, but their fitness was not found to be markedly different in comparison with the other occupied habitats. Although they produced slightly lower-quality offspring in clear-cut patches, we did not find a negative consequence on first-year survival probabilities or any among-habitat differences in adult survival. With our analysis integrating multiple components of individual fitness, we show that all occupied land-use types are similarly rewarding for the breeding stonechats. Our study shows that some species can benefit from novel land-use types emerging in the landscape as a result of human activities. Flexible habitat selection in the stonechat has most probably contributed to its recent population increase in Western Europe.

The conditions that a population experiences during one season can affect the strength of density dependence in the following season. In the tropics, many populations face their biggest challenges in the dry season due to limited food and cold-dry conditions. Seasonal environmental changes can be especially problematic for small, short-lived, seasonally breeding endotherms. To investigate the effects of seasonality on population dynamics, we studied five marsupial species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, using a 16-year dataset. We tested if (1) compensatory density feedback is stronger in the dry season, due to the high population sizes and limited food; (2) lower temperatures and the overall abundance of small mammals negatively affect dry season population growth rates; and (3) rainfall, a proxy for food availability, is positively related to wet season population growth rates. Population growth rates were regressed against seasonal population sizes and exogenous variables, and analyzed with linear autoregressive models. Seasonal compensatory density feedback occurred in both seasons, with compensation processes in just one season being sufficient to allow population persistence. Rainfall and the overall abundance of small mammals had little influence on populations, while colder temperatures decreased population growth rate of smaller species in both seasons. Although the study marsupials share similar life histories and phylogeny, they varied with respect to the season when compensatory density feedback was strongest. Our results demonstrate that seasonality plays a key role in driving marsupial population dynamics, and highlight the need to account for seasonality in demographic studies even in tropical environments.

In territorial species, observed density dependence is often manifest in lowered reproductive output at high population density where individuals have fewer resources or are forced to inhabit low-quality territories. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) in Iceland is territorial throughout the year and feeds mostly on birds, since lemmings are absent from the country. Thus, the population does not exhibit short-term population cycles that are evident in most of the species' geographical range. The population has, however, gone through a major long-term fluctuation in population size. Because of the stability in hunting effort and reliable hunting records since 1958, the total number of adult foxes killed annually can be used as an index of population size (N t ). An index of carrying capacity (K) from population growth data for five separate time blocks during 1958-2007 revealed considerable variation in K and allowed a novel definition of population density in terms of K, or N t /K. Correlation analysis suggested that the reproductive rate was largely determined by the proportion of territorial foxes in the population. Variation in litter size and cub mortality was, on the other hand, related to climatic variation. Thus, Arctic foxes in Iceland engage in typical contest competition but can adapt their territory sizes in response to both temporal and spatial variation in carrying capacity, resulting in surprisingly little variation in litter size.

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

Population projections coupled with downscaled climate projections are a powerful tool that allows predicting future population dynamics of vulnerable plants in the face of a changing climate. Traditional approaches used to predict the vulnerability of plants to climate change (e.g. species distribution models) fail to mechanistically describe the basis of a population’s dynamics and thus cannot be expected to correctly predict its temporal trends. In this study, we used a 23-year demographic dataset of the acuna cactus, an endangered species, to predict its population dynamics to the end of the century. We used integral projection models to describe its vital rates and population dynamics in relation to plant volume and key climatic variables. We used the resulting climate-driven IPM along with climatic projections to predict the population growth rates from 1991 to 2099. We found the average population growth rate of this population between 1991 and 2013 to be 0.70 (95% CI 0.61–0.79). This result confirms that the population of acuna cactus has been declining and that this decline is due to demographic structure and climate conditions. However, the projection model also predicts that, up to 2080, the population will remain relatively stable mainly due to the survival of its existing adult individuals. Notwithstanding, the long-term viability of the populations can only be achieved through the recruitment of new individuals.

The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

It is predicted that locust outbreaks will occur more frequently under future climate change scenarios, with consequent effects on ecological goods and services. A field manipulative experiment was conducted to examine the responses of gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (ER), and soil respiration (SR) to locust outbreaks in a temperate steppe of northern China from 2010 to 2011. Two processes related to locust outbreaks, natural locust feeding and carcass deposition, were mimicked by clipping 80 % of aboveground biomass and adding locust carcasses, respectively. Ecosystem carbon (C) exchange (i.e., GEP, NEE, ER, and SR) was suppressed by locust feeding in 2010, but stimulated by locust carcass deposition in both years (except SR in 2011). Experimental locust outbreaks (i.e., clipping plus locust carcass addition) decreased GEP and NEE in 2010 whereas they increased GEP, NEE, and ER in 2011, leading to neutral changes in GEP, NEE, and SR across the 2 years. The responses of ecosystem C exchange could have been due to the changes in soil ammonium nitrogen, community cover, and aboveground net primary productivity. Our findings of the transient and neutral changes in ecosystem C cycling under locust outbreaks highlight the importance of resistance, resilience, and stability of the temperate steppe in maintaining reliable ecosystem services, and facilitate the projections of ecosystem functioning in response to natural disturbance and climate change.

Facultative diapause should be favoured by natural selection in temporary variable habitats. Diapause patterns are evolutionary constrained because producing diapause is resource demanding, which might have implications for competitive dynamics and competitor coexistence through mechanisms such as the storage effect. Besides these implications, competition intensity might affect the quality of the diapausing stages and the reproductive success of the offspring emerging from them. We experimentally analysed traits involved in diapause in the cyclically parthenogenetic rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus, in relation to the presence of its competitor, the cladoceran Moina micrura. Under competition with Moina, Brachionus produced fewer diapausing eggs, most of which possessed visual attributes indicating a higher quality. These diapausing eggs produced under a competitive environment had a higher hatching success; however, the hatchlings exhibited a lower population growth rate. We propose the existence of trade-offs between traits related to diapause: the number of produced eggs, quality of these eggs and hatchling performance. Our results show that interspecific competition may cause fine-tuned changes in the life cycle patterns of the populations. Furthermore, these changes could affect that abundance and performance of competitors and thereby drive back effects on the competitive output. These diapause-driven feedback mechanisms may have strong implications for the dynamics of the natural communities.

Life-history information sets the foundation for our understanding of ecology and conservation requirements. For many species, this information is lacking even for basic demographic rates such as survival and movement. When survival and movement estimates are available, they are often derived from mixed demographic groups and do not consider differences among life stages or sexes, which is critical, because life stages and sexes often contribute differentially to population dynamics. We used hierarchical models informed with spatial capture–mark–recapture data of Ascaphus montanus (Rocky Mountain tailed frog) in five streams and A. truei (coastal tailed frog) in one stream to estimate variation in survival and movement by sex and age, represented by size. By incorporating survival and movement into a single model, we were able to estimate both parameters with limited bias. Annual survival was similar between sexes of A. montanus [females = 0.885 (95% CI 0.614–1), males = 0.901 (0.657–1)], but was slightly higher for female A. truei [0.836 (0.560–0.993)] than for males [0.664 (0.354–0.962)]. Survival of A. montanus peaked at mid-age, suggesting that lower survival of young and actuarial senescence may influence population demographics. Our models suggest that younger A. montanus moved farther than older individuals, and that females moved farther than males in both species. Our results provide uncommon insight into age- and sex-specific rates of survival and movement that are crucial elements of life-history strategies and are important for modeling population growth and prescribing conservation actions.

According to producer–consumer models, consumers should follow pulsed resources with a time lag. This view has been challenged by studies demonstrating that individuals may anticipate future resource pulses by increasing reproduction just before the pulse. We studied population fluctuations and reproduction in European red squirrels, Sciurus vulgaris, in relation to seed masting of the main food resource (the Norway spruce) in boreal coniferous forests between 1979 and 2013. Red squirrels are pre-dispersal seed predators, and previous studies have shown that they can anticipate the coming seed mast. We did not find any indication that anticipation of masting (year t ) increased red squirrel reproduction in the preceding spring to early summer. Instead, the reproductive output of the squirrels was highest in the spring following the mast, indicating that the population had to be at its largest size in the autumn after the mast (year t+1), when lots of subadults were around. However, we surmised, based on snow tracks and squirrel nest data, that the population crashed during the following winter (year t+1). These data reflected the adult population during winter, which peaked at the same time as the resource pulse. We can therefore conclude that the time lag between the resource pulse and the attainment of the peak number of squirrels was less than one year, and that the resource crash affected more juveniles and subadults than adults. The population increase overlapped with the occurrence of masting, but there was also a lagged response, supporting the classical view of producer–consumer models.

The influence of native fauna on non-native plant population growth, size, and distribution is not well documented. Previous studies have shown that native insects associated with tall thistle (Cirsium altissimum) also feed on the leaves, stems, and flower heads of the Eurasian congener C. vulgare, thus limiting individual plant performance. In this study, we tested the effects of insect herbivores on the population growth rate of C. vulgare. We experimentally initiated invasions by adding seeds at four unoccupied grassland sites in eastern Nebraska, USA, and recorded plant establishment, survival, and reproduction. Cumulative foliage and floral herbivory reduced C. vulgare seedling density, and prevented almost any reproduction by C. vulgare in half the sites. The matrix model we constructed showed that this herbivory resulted in a reduction of the asymptotic population growth rate (λ), from an 88% annual increase to a 54% annual decline. These results provide strong support for the hypothesis that indigenous herbivores limit population invasion of this non-native plant species into otherwise suitable grassland habitat.

Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

Individual diet variation is a common feature of populations. This variation may be particularly common in near-shore marine benthic habitats where omnivory is prevalent and prey availability is spatially variable. Accurately predicting population responses to anthropogenic change that is occurring rapidly in these systems requires a quantitative link between individual diet variation and fecundity. Here I develop this quantitative link for the European green crab Carcinus maenas, specifically focusing on variation in the relative amounts of plant and animal material included in the diet. I demonstrate both short- and long-term diet variation between crabs as well as large individual variation in fecundity. I then quantitatively link variation in diet and fecundity using a laboratory feeding experiment. Fecundity increased by approximately 5,200 eggs when daily consumption of animal tissue increased by 1 % of body weight, but was not influenced by the most commonly consumed algal species. Results presented here have important implications for understanding population dynamics in general, and also provide information necessary for accurately predicting population growth of this widespread invader.

Changes to weather patterns under a warming climate are complex: while warmer temperatures are expected virtually worldwide, decreased mean precipitation is expected at mid-latitudes. Migratory birds depend on broad-scale weather patterns to inform timing of movements, but may be more susceptible to local weather patterns during sedentary periods. We constructed Bayesian integrated population models (IPMs) to assess whether continental or local weather effects best explained population dynamics in an environmentally sensitive aerial insectivorous bird, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a transcontinental gradient from British Columbia to Saskatchewan to New York, and tested whether population dynamics were synchronous among sites. Little consistency existed among sites in the demographic rates most affecting population growth rate or in correlations among rates. Juvenile apparent survival at all sites was stable over time and greatest in New York, whereas adult apparent survival was more variable among years and sites, and greatest in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Fledging success was greatest in Saskatchewan. Local weather conditions explained significant variation in adult survival in Saskatchewan and fledging success in New York, corroborating the hypothesis that local more than continental weather drives the population dynamics of this species and, therefore, demographic synchrony measured at three sites was limited. Nonetheless, multi-population IPMs can be a powerful tool for identifying correlated population trajectories caused by synchronous demographic rates, and can pinpoint the scale at which environmental drivers are responsible for changes. We caution against applying uniform conservation actions for populations where synchrony does not occur or is not fully understood.

Density-dependent processes are fundamental mechanisms for the regulation of populations. Ecological theories differ in their predictions on whether increasing population density leads to individual adjustments of survival and reproductive output or to dominance and monopolization of resources. Here, we use a natural experiment to examine which factors limit population growth in the only remaining population of the endangered pale-headed brush finch (Atlapetes pallidiceps). For three distinct phases (a phase of population suppression, 2001–2002; expansion due to conservation management, 2003–2008; and equilibrium phase, 2009–2014), we estimated demographic parameters with an integrated population model using population size, the proportion of successfully breeding pairs and their productivity, territory size, and mark-recapture data of adult birds. A low proportion of successful breeders due to brood parasitism (0.42, 95% credible interval 0.26–0.59) limited population growth before 2003; subsequent culling of the brood parasite resulted in a two-fold increase of the proportion of successful breeders during the ‘expansion phase’. When the population approached the carrying capacity of its habitat, territory size declined by more than 50% and fecundity declined from 1.9 (1.54–2.27) to 1.3 (1.12–1.53) chicks per breeding pair, but the proportion of successful breeders remained constant (expansion phase: 0.85; 0.76–0.93; equilibrium phase: 0.86; 0.79–0.92). This study demonstrates that limiting resources can lead to individual adjustments instead of despotic behavior, and the individual reduction of reproductive output at high population densities is consistent with the slow life-history of many tropical species.

Differences in the density of conspecific tree individuals in response to environmental gradients are well documented for many tree species, but how such density differences are generated and maintained is poorly understood. We examined the segregation of six dipterocarp species among three soil types in the Pasoh tropical forest, Malaysia. We examined how individual performance and population dynamics changed across the soil types using 10-year demographic data to compare tree performance across soil types, and constructed population matrix models to analyze the population dynamics. Species showed only minor changes in mortality and juvenile growth across soil types, although recruitment differed greatly. Clear, interspecific demographic trade-offs between growth and mortality were found in all soil types. The relative trade-offs by a species did not differ substantially among the soil types. Population sizes were projected to remain stable in all soil types for all species with one exception. Our life-table response experiment demonstrated that the population dynamics of a species differed only subtly among soil types. Therefore, species with strong density differences across soil types do not necessarily differ greatly in their population dynamics across the soil types. In contrast, interspecific differences in population dynamics were large. The trade-off between mortality and growth led to a negative correlation between the contributions of mortality and growth to variations in the population growth rate (λ) and thus reduced their net contributions. Recruitment had little impact on the variation in λ. The combination of these factors resulted in little variation in λ among species.

Little is known about intraspecific variation in fitness performance in response to thermal stress among natural populations and how this relates to evolutionary aspects of species ecology. In this study, population growth rate (PGR; a composite fitness measure) varied among five natural Chironomus riparius populations sampled across a climatic gradient when subjected to three temperature treatments reflecting the typical range of summer habitat temperatures (20, 24 and 28 °C). The variation could be explained by a complex model including effects of genetic drift, genetic diversity and adaptation to average temperature during the warmest month, in addition to experimental temperature. All populations suffered a decrease in PGR from 20 to 28 °C and ΔPGR was significantly correlated with the respective average habitat temperature in the warmest month-populations from warmer areas showing lower ΔPGR. This implies that long-term exposure to higher temperatures in the warmest month (the key reproductive period for C. riparius) is likely to be a key selective force influencing fitness at higher temperatures. A comparison of phenotypic divergence and neutral genetic differentiation revealed that one phenotypic trait--the number of fertile egg masses per female--appeared to be under positive selection in some populations. Our findings support a role for response to temperature selection along a climatic gradient and suggest population history is a key determinant of intraspecific fitness variation. We stress the importance of integrating different types of data (climatic, experimental, genetic) in order to understand the effects of global climate change on biodiversity.

We review the population dynamics of red-backed voles (Myodes species) in North America, the main deciduous and coniferous forest-dwelling microtines on this continent, and compare and contrast their pattern with that of the same or similar species in Eurasia. We identify 7 long-term studies of population changes in Myodes in North America. Using autoregressive and spectral analysis, we found that only 2 of the 7 show 3- to 5-year cycles like those found in some Eurasian populations. There was no relationship between latitude and cycling. The general lack of cyclicity is associated with two key aspects of their demography that act in tandem: first, poor overwinter survival in most years; second, chronically low densities, with irregular outbreak years. Eight factors might explain why some Myodes populations fluctuate in cycles and others fluctuate irregularly, and we review the evidence for each factor: food supplies, nutrients, predation, interspecific competition, disease, weather, spacing behavior and interactive effects. Of these eight, only food supplies appear to be sufficient to explain the differences between cyclic and non-cyclic populations. Irregular fluctuations are the result of pulsed food supplies in the form of berry crops (M. rutilus) or tree seeds (M. gapperi) linked to weather patterns. We argue that, to understand the cause for the patterns in the respective hemispheres, we must know the mechanism(s) driving population change and this must be linked to rigorous field tests. We suggest that a large-scale, year-round feeding experiment should improve overwintering survival, increase standing densities, and flip non-cyclic Myodes populations into cyclic dynamics that would mimic the patterns seen in the cyclic populations found in parts of Eurasia.