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Do countries learn from their mistakes? Here we consider one example of this question with respect to banking crises using the concept of effective learning, that is, learning plus the ability to implement such learning. Excessive credit growth is widely considered to be the strongest contributor to banking crises. Thus, it is interesting to see whether banking crises are associated with lower rates of credit growth in the future and if so, what are major factors which influence such changes in behavior. In previous research we have found that, on average, banking crises are followed by substantially lower credit growth but this varies considerably across countries. Our hypothesis is that lower rates of future credit growth reflect a process of learning from one's mistakes and taking corrective actions. This paper offers an investigation of some of the political economy factors that may influence whether crises result in greater discipline. Overall, we found very little average effective learning in stable autocracies and on the contrary, found considerable discipline in stable democracies. Nevertheless, we found even larger discipline effects in countries that transitioned to democracy in the wake of banking crises. Our results regarding the role of veto players and government turnovers are inconclusive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates if, in what direction, and under what circumstances financial inclusion amplifies or moderates output volatility, which is a matter of concern for monetary policymakers in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). The empirical estimation for a large panel of over 100 EMDEs spanning the period 1995 to 2013 finds a strong and persistent trade-off between higher financial inclusion and output stability. The paper also finds strong and robust evidence of non-linearity governing this relationship. Countries with high degrees of financial inclusion as well as those that are relatively lower income tend to experience a significant trade-off between financial inclusion and output stability. Further, the paper also finds that reckless financial inclusion coinciding with excessive credit growth tends to worsen output volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]