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The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), urinary iodine concentration (UIC), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk and complications and to establish a model to predict T2DM in the general population. A total of 567 adults (389 T2DM patients and 178 controls) were enrolled, and the levels of 25(OH)D, iodine, and blood biochemical parameters were measured. Pearson’s correlation analysis showed an inverse correlation between 25(OH)D level, UIC, and T2DM risk. Low 25(OH)D level was a risk factor for developing T2DM (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 1.90–2.63; P = 0.043) after adjustment for multiple risk factors. 25(OH)D level and UIC were inversely correlated with short-term and long-term glucose levels. 25(OH)D deficiency was also associated with a high incidence of T2DM complicated with thyroid dysfunction. A prediction model based on 25(OH)D, iodine status, and other risk factors was established and recommended to screen high-risk T2DM in the general population and provide early screening and timely treatment for them.