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Objective: To estimate inappropriate opioid dispensing in patients with knee or hip osteoarthritis (OA) defined as (1) dispensing of opioids within the first year of diagnosis or (2) long-term opioid use., Design: Data from Skåne Healthcare Register was linked with the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register. Incidence proportion of dispensed opioids within first year of incident knee or hip OA diagnosis was determined in knee (n = 399,670) and hip (413,216) OA cohorts without a history of OA. The 1-year period prevalence of long-term opioid dispensing was determined in a prevalence cohort (n = 48,574 with knee and/or hip OA and n = 457,587 without OA). The proportion of OA patients with excess opioid dispensing attributable to OA was estimated using inverse probability weighted regression adjustment., Results: In the incident cohorts, 5866 and 2359 developed knee and hip OA, respectively. Within the first year after OA diagnosis 14.7% patients with knee OA and 20.7% with hip OA had an opioid dispensed. The estimated inappropriate dispensing attributable to OA was 7.4% (95% CI 6.5-8.4) for knee OA and 12.8% (95% CI 11.1-14.4) for hip OA. Among persons with prevalent knee, hip or knee and hip OA inappropriate, long-term opioid use attributable to OA was 1.3%, 2.0% and 2.4% of, respectively., Conclusions: More than half the incident opioid dispensations to patients within their first year after knee or hip OA diagnosis are inappropriate according to current treatment guidelines. Furthermore, 2% of patients with prevalent knee or hip OA have inappropriate long-term dispensing of opioids., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate lifetime risk of knee and hip replacement following a GP diagnosis of osteoarthritis and assess how this risk varies with patient characteristics., Methods: Routinely collected data from Catalonia, Spain, covering 2006 to 2015, were used. Study participants had a newly recorded GP diagnosis of knee or hip osteoarthritis. Parametric survival models were specified for risk of knee/hip replacement and death following diagnosis. Survival models were combined using a Markov model and lifetime risk estimated for the average patient profile. The effects of age at diagnosis, sex, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, body mass index (BMI), and smoking on risk were assessed., Results: 48,311 individuals diagnosed with knee osteoarthritis were included, of whom 2,561 underwent knee replacement. 15,105 individuals diagnosed with hip osteoarthritis were included, of whom 1,247 underwent hip replacement. The average participant's lifetime risk for knee replacement was 30% (95% CI: 25-36%) and for hip replacement was 14% (10-19%). Notable patient characteristics influencing lifetime risk were age at diagnosis for knee and hip replacement, sex for hip replacement, and BMI for knee replacement. BMI increasing from 25 to 35 was associated with lifetime risk of knee replacement increasing from 24% (20-28%) to 32% (26-37%) for otherwise average patients., Conclusion: Knee and hip replacement are not inevitable after an osteoarthritis diagnosis, with average lifetime risks of less than a third and a sixth, respectively. Patient characteristics, most notably BMI, influence lifetime risks., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objective: We aimed to test whether a national Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) Programme in total knee replacement (TKR) had an impact on patient outcomes., Design: Natural-experiment (April 2008-December 2016). Interrupted time-series regression assessed impact on trends before-during-after ERAS implementation., Setting: Primary operations from the UK National Joint Registry (NJR) were linked with Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data which contains inpatient episodes undertaken in National Health Service (NHS) trusts in England, and Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs)., Participants: Patients undergoing primary planned TKR aged ≥18 years., Intervention: ERAS implementation (April 2009-March 2011)., Outcomes: Regression coefficients of monthly means of Length of stay (LOS), bed day costs, change in Oxford knee scores (OKS) 6-months after surgery, complications (at 6 months), and rates of revision surgeries (at 5 years)., Results: 486,579 primary TKRs were identified. Overall LOS and bed-day costs decreased from 5.8 days to 3.7 and from £7607 to £5276, from April 2008 to December 2016. Oxford knee score (OKS) change improved from 15.1 points in April 2008 to 17.1 points in December 2016. Complications decreased from 4.1 % in April 2008 to 1.7 % in March 2016. 5-year revision rates remained stable at 4.8 per 1000 implants years in April 2008 and December 2011. After ERAS, declining trends in LOS and bed costs slowed down; OKS improved, complications remained stable, and revisions slightly increased., Conclusions: Different secular trends in outcomes for patients having TKR have been observed over the last decade. Although patient outcomes are better than a decade ago ERAS did not improve them at national level., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the association of body mass index (BMI) and smoking with risk of revision following total knee replacement (TKR) and total hip replacement (THR)., Design: Primary care data, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), was linked to inpatient hospital records, from Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care (HES APC), and covered 1997 to 2014. Parametric survival models, with BMI and smoking status included as explanatory variables, were estimated for 10-year risk of revision and mortality, and were extrapolated to estimate lifetime risk of revision., Findings: TKR and THR cohorts included 10,260 and 10,961 individuals, respectively. For a change in BMI from 25 to 35, the 10-year risk of revision is expected change from 4.6% (3.3-6.4%) to 3.7% (2.6-5.1%) for TKR and 3.7% (2.8-5.1%) to 4.0% (2.8-5.7%) for THR for an otherwise average patient profile. Meanwhile, changing from a non-smoker to a current smoker is expected to change the risk of revision from 4.1% (3.1-5.5%) to 2.8% (1.7-4.7%) for TKR and from 3.8% (2.8-5.3%) to 2.9% (1.9-4.7%) for THR for an otherwise average patient profile. Estimates of lifetime risk were also similar for different values of BMI or smoking status., Conclusions: Obesity and smoking do not appear to have a meaningful impact on the risk of revision following TKR and THR., (Copyright © 2019 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To quantify opioid use in knee and hip osteoarthritis (OA) patients, and to estimate the proportion of opioids in the population attributable to OA patients., Design: Population-based cohort study., Methods: We included 751,579 residents in southern Sweden, aged ≥35 years in 2015. Doctor-diagnosed knee or hip OA between 1998 and 2015 was the exposure. Dispensed weak and strong opioids were identified between November 2013 and October 2015 from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register (SPDR). We determined age- and sex-standardized 12-month period prevalence of opioid use from November 2014 until October 2015 and calculated prevalence ratios and incidence rate ratios adjusted for age, sex, and other socio-demographic variables. We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of incident opioid use attributable to OA patients., Results: The 12-month prevalence of opioid use among OA patients was 23.7% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 23.3-24.2], which was two-fold higher compared to individuals without knee or hip OA: prevalence ratio: 2.1 [95% CI 2.1-2.1]. Similarly, OA patients were more likely to have an incident opioid dispensation, especially for strong opioids (incidence rate ratio: 2.6 [95% CI 2.5-2.7]). Population attributable tractions (PAF) of incident opioid use attributable to OA patients was 12%, 9% for weak and 17% for strong opioids., Conclusions: Every fourth patient with knee or hip OA has opioids dispensed over a 1-year period, and 12% of incident opioid dispensations are attributable to OA and/or its related comorbidities. These results highlight that patients with knee and hip OA constitute a group of patients with an alarmingly high use of opioids., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To determine the association between socio-economic status (SES) and risk of hand, hip or knee osteoarthritis (OA) at a population level., Design: Retrospective ecological study using the System for the Development of Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) database (primary care anonymized records for >5 million people in Catalonia (Spain)). Urban residents >15 years old (2009-2012) were eligible., Outcomes: Validated area-based SES deprivation index MEDEA (proportion of unemployed, temporary workers, manual workers, low educational attainment and low educational attainment among youngsters) was estimated for each area based on census data as well as incident diagnoses (ICD-10 codes) of hand, hip or knee OA (2009-2012). Zero-inflated Poisson models were fitted to study the association between MEDEA quintiles and the outcomes., Results: Compared to the least deprived, the most deprived areas were younger (43.29 (17.59) vs 46.83 (18.49), years (Mean SD), had fewer women (49.1% vs 54.8%), a higher percentage of obese (16.2% vs 8.4%), smokers (16.9% vs 11.9%) and high-risk alcohol consumption subjects (1.5% vs 1.3%). Compared to the least deprived, the most deprived areas had an excess risk of OA: age-sex-adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 1.26 (1.11-1.42) for hand, 1.23 (1.17-1.29) hip, and 1.51 (1.45-1.57) knee. Adjustment for obesity attenuated this association: 1.06 (0.93-1.20), 1.04 (0.99-1.09), and 1.23 (1.19-1.28) respectively., Conclusions: Deprived areas have higher rates OA (hand, hip, knee). Their increased prevalence of obesity accounts for a 50% of the excess risk of knee OA observed. Public health interventions to reduce the prevalence of obesity in this population could reduce health inequalities., (Copyright © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To estimate the future rate of primary total hip (THR) or knee (TKR) replacement in the UK to 2035 allowing for changes in population demographics and obesity., Design: Using age/gender/body mass index (BMI)-specific incidence rates from a population-based cohort study of 50,000 THR and 45,609 TKR patients from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) between 1991 and 2010, we projected future numbers of THR and TKR using two models: a static, estimated rate from 2010 applied to population growth forecasts to 2035, and a log-linear rate extrapolation over the same period. Both scenarios used population forecast data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)., Results: Assuming rates of THR and TKR for 2010, and given projected population changes in age, gender and BMI, the number of THRs and TKRs performed in the UK in 2035 is estimated to be, respectively: 95,877 and 118,666. By comparison, an exponential extrapolation of historical rates using a log-linear model produces much higher estimates of THR and TKR counts in 2035 at 439,097 and 1,219,362 respectively. Projected counts were higher for women than men. Assuming a changing (rather than fixed) future BMI distribution increases TKRs by 2035 but not THRs., Conclusions: Using historical rates and population forecasts we have projected the number of THR/TKR operations in the UK up to 2035. This study will inform policymakers requiring estimates of future demand for surgery. Incorporating future forecasts for BMI into projections of joint replacement may be more relevant for TKR rather than THR., (Copyright © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To assess the effect of obesity on 6-month post-operative complications following total knee (TKR) or hip (THR) replacement., Design: Data for patients undergoing first THR or TKR between 1995 and 2011 was taken from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Logistic regression was used to assess whether body mass index (BMI) was associated with 6-month post-operative complications [deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism (DVT/PE), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, respiratory infection, anaemia, wound infection, urinary tract infection or death] after controlling for the effects of age, gender, smoking, drinking, socio-economic status (SES), co-morbidities and medications., Results: 31,817 THR patients and 32,485 TKR patients were identified for inclusion. Increasing BMI was associated with a significantly higher risk of wound infections, from 1.6% to 3.5% in THR patients (adjusted P < 0.01), and from 3% to 4.1% (adjusted P < 0.05) in TKR patients. DVT/PE risk also increased with obesity from 2.2% to 3.3% (adjusted P < 0.01) in THR patients and from 2.0% to 3.3% (adjusted P < 0.01) in TKR patients. Obesity was not associated with increased risk of other complications., Conclusion: Whilst an increased risk of wound infection and DVT/PE was observed amongst obese patients, absolute risks remain low and no such association was observed for MI, stroke and mortality. However this is a selected cohort (eligible for surgery according to judgement of NHS GPs and surgeons) and as such these results do not advocate surgery be given without consideration of BMI, but indicate that universal denial of surgery based on BMI is unwarranted., (Copyright © 2014 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)