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This paper presents a quantitative model for assessing the spatiotemporal patterns in the growth of grain production in China between 1985 and 2008 using provincial panel data and a GIS model. The results show that the pathway for grain production relied mainly on land productivity growth as a rational response to the scarcity of cultivated land and a small peasant-based economy. Large-scale land management is the inevitable trend for agricultural development in China. In Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, promoting labour productivity accords with the requirement for the transition of cultivated land management in the future. The area of cultivated land per agricultural employee (1.33 ha) may be the reference threshold for large-scale land management. Finally, suggestions for regulations against regional cultivated land management are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]