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We have used a two-dimensional probabilistic model to estimate the short-term dietary exposure of UK consumers to bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) migrating from light metal food packaging. Using three UK National Dietary and Nutrition Surveys comprising 4–7-day dietary surveys for different ages and genders, actual body weights and survey years, a sample representative of the UK population was obtained, comprising around 4200 food items. The packaging type of each food item was assigned by utilizing known packaging type from the database or by sampling from a distribution based upon market share information or expert judgement. For concentration data, we have used published data for foods or food simulants or a combination of both. The probabilistic approach allowed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the relative importance of the input parameters and placed confidence bounds on the outputs to show the effect of the uncertainties. The refined estimates gave an exposure for UK consumers, at the 97.5th percentile level, of 0.41–0.83 μ/kg body weight (bw)/day for the different age ranges and scenarios run. All estimates are well below the new tolerable daily intake value of 150 μ/kg bw/day for BADGE and its two hydrolysed forms, and are also well below the restriction value of 17 μ/kg bw/day for the other regulated BADGE derivatives. The main contributors to exposure are beverages, along with aqueous and acidic foods. This is because of the high consumption of these classes of foodstuffs, even though levels of migration into these foodstuffs and into their appropriate simulants is normally non-detectable. Reducing the non-detectable level six-fold reduced the estimate of exposure by 40–60%. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.