1. Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target
- Author
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Rachel Warren, Pete Smith, Yadvinder Malhi, Amy Molotoks, and Jeff Price
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,General Mathematics ,Biodiversity ,General Physics and Astronomy ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Environmental protection ,11. Sustainability ,Greenhouse gas removal ,Afforestation ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,biodiversity ,Climate risk ,General Engineering ,Carbon capture and storage (timeline) ,Reforestation ,greenhouse gas removal ,Articles ,15. Life on land ,land ,13. Climate action ,Environmental science ,climate change targets ,Protected area ,Global biodiversity ,Research Article - Abstract
We applied a recently developed tool to examine the reduction in climate risk to biodiversity in moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target. We then reviewed the recent literature examining the impact of (a) land-based mitigation options and (b) land-based greenhouse gas removal options on biodiversity. We show that holding warming to 1.5°C versus 2°C can significantly reduce the number of species facing a potential loss of 50% of their climatic range. Further, there would be an increase of 5.5–14% of the globe that could potentially act as climatic refugia for plants and animals, an area equivalent to the current global protected area network. Efforts to meet the 1.5°C target through mitigation could largely be consistent with biodiversity protection/enhancement. For impacts of land-based greenhouse gas removal technologies on biodiversity, some (e.g. soil carbon sequestration) could be neutral or positive, others (e.g. bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) are likely to lead to conflicts, while still others (e.g. afforestation/reforestation) are context-specific, when applied at scales necessary for meaningful greenhouse gas removal. Additional effort to meet the 1.5°C target presents some risks, particularly if inappropriately managed, but it also presents opportunities. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
- Published
- 2018