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Comments on an analysis of the structure of a scientific paper on plate tectonics using philosophical models. Basis of a survey of scientific papers; Correctness of the experimental result; Use of Bayesianism to account for the argument for the theoretical explanation of the experimental result.

Criticizes Frederick Suppe's analysis of the structure of a scientific paper using philosophical models. Claims on data-based papers in science; Objections to the philosophical models; Data impeachment as a strategy in the epistemology of science.

Analyzes the structure of a scientific paper on plate tectonics as a case study to show philosophical models of standard hypothetico-deductive, Bayesian inductive and inference-to-the-best-explanation of testing and confirming fail criterion. Argumentative and organizational structures; Evidential basis for the paper's claims; Interpretation of results.

Probes the structures of scientific papers. Efficiency of scientific confirmation in capturing the structure of scientific articles; Demonstration of the coding scheme of Fred Suppe; Illustration of alternative structures found in various scientific articles; Relationship between structure and rhetorical goals of articles.

Presents the contributed papers selected at the biennial meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association (PSA) held in Vancouver, Canada. Details of the process of refereeing and selecting papers for the program; Members of the PSA 2000 program committee; Provision of opinions and advice concerning the submitted papers by other colleagues.

Characterizing the genetic structure of populations is of importance to evolutionary biology, to human disease gene mapping, and to forensic science. Sewall Wright introduced a set of F-statistics to describe population structure in 1951, and he emphasized that these quantities were ratios of variances. Responding to uncertainty over the best way to estimate F-statistics, Weir and Cockerham published a method-of-moments set of estimators in 1984. This paper continues to be widely cited, with over 7,000 citations to date. Some background to the publishing history of the Weir and Cockerham paper is given here, along with subsequent developments and a discussion of current uses of Wright's F-statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper defends the doctrine that Linnaean taxa, including species, have essences that are, at least partly, underlying intrinsic, mostly genetic, properties. The consensus among philosophers of biology is that such essentialism is deeply wrong, indeed incompatible with Darwinism. I argue that biological generalizations about the morphology, physiology, and behavior of species require structural explanations that must advert to these essential properties. The paper concludes by summarizing my responses to the objection that, according to current "species concepts," species are relational, and to the objection that essentialism cannot accommodate features of Darwinism associated with variation and change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theorizing in ecology and evolution often proceeds via the construction of multiple idealized models. To determine whether a theoretical result actually depends on core features of the models and is not an artifact of simplifying assumptions, theorists have developed the technique of robustness analysis, the examination of multiple models looking for common predictions. A striking example of robustness analysis in ecology is the discovery of the Volterra Principle, which describes the effect of general biocides in predator-prey systems. This paper details the discovery of the Volterra Principle and the demonstration of its robustness. It considers the classical ecology literature on robustness and introduces two individual-based models of predation, which are used to further analyze the Volterra Principle. The paper also introduces a distinction between parameter robustness, structural robustness, and representational robustness, and demonstrates that the Volterra Principle exhibits all three kinds of robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that econometricians' explicit adoption of identification conditions in structural equation modelling commits them to read the functional form of their equations in a strong, nonmathematical way. This content, which is implicitly attributed to the functional form of structural equations, is part of what makes equation structural. Unfortunately, econometricians are not explicit about the role functional form plays in signifying structural content. In order to remedy this, the second part of this paper presents an interpretation of the functional form based on Herbert Simon's definition of causal order. This begins to set out just what the functional form of structural equations represents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In their paper, "Vexing Expectations," Nover and Hájek (2004) present an allegedly paradoxical betting scenario which they call the Pasadena Game (PG). They argue that the silence of standard decision theory concerning the value of playing PG poses a serious problem. This paper provides a threefold response. First, I argue that the real problem is not that decision theory is "silent" concerning PG, but that it delivers multiple conflicting verdicts. Second, I offer a diagnosis of the problem based on the insight that standard decision theory is, rightly, sensitive to order. Third, I describe a new betting scenario--the Alternating St. Petersburg Game--which is genuinely paradoxical. Standard decision theory is silent on the value of playing this game even if restrictions are placed on the order in which the various alternative payoffs are summed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new equilibrium concept for normal form games called dependency equilibrium; it is defined, exemplified, and compared with Nash and correlated equilibria in Sections 2-4. Its philosophical motive is to rationalize cooperation in the one shot prisoners' dilemma. A brief discussion of its meaningfulness in Section 5 concludes the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I answer a fundamental question facing any view according to which natural selection is a population-level causal process--namely, how is the causal process of natural selection related to, yet not preempted by, causal processes that occur at the level of individual organisms? Without an answer to this grounding question, the population-level causal view appears unstable--collapsing into either an individual-level causal interpretation or the claim that selection is a purely formal, statistical phenomenon, I argue that a causal account of realization provides an answer to the grounding question. By applying this account of realization to the natural selection of melanism in rock pocket mice, I show how an alternative, formal account of realization, favored by proponents of the statistical interpretation, misses biologically important features. More generally, this paper shows how metaphysical issues about realization normally discussed in the philosophy of mind apply to debates in philosophy of biology. Thus, it is a first step toward fleshing out the oft-noted similarities between debates in these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparing alternative scientific theories obviously is relevant to theory assessment, but are comparativists (like Laudan/correct when they also make it necessary? This paper argues that they are not. Defining rationality solely in terms of theories' comparative problem-solving strengths, comparativist philosophers of science like Laudan subscribe to what I call the irrelevance claim (IC) and the necessity claim (NC). According to IC, a scientific theory's being well or poorly confirmed is "irrelevant" to its acceptance; NC is the claim that "all evaluations of research traditions and theories must be made within a comparative context," how any theory "compares with its competitors" (Laudan 1977, 21, 120). Using current competing theories (T1 and T2) of population viability assessment (PVA) for the Florida panther, the paper investigates IC/NC. In part because dominant T2 panther biologists accept IC/NC (which T1 theorists reject), the paper argues that they appear both to have accepted flawed T2 and to have contributed to flawed panther science and policy. Correcting Laudan's Comparativist Philosophy of Science (LCPS), underlying the T1-versus-T2 debate, thus may hold promise for helping resolve both the scientific and policy controversy over panther PVA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a revision of our understanding of causation that is designed to address what Hartry Field has suggested is the central problem in the metaphysics of causation today: reconciling Bertrand Russell's arguments that the concept of causation can play no role in the advanced sciences with Nancy Cartwright's arguments that causal concepts are essential to a scientific understanding of the world. The paper shows that Russell's main argument is, ironically, very similar to an argument that Cartwright has put forward against the truth of universal laws of nature. The paper uses this insight to develop an account of causation that does justice to traditional views yet avoids the arguments of Russell. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses several philosophical problems with the use of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in psychotherapy outcome research. The problems include: the impermanence problem, the identification problem, and idiographic problems. The paper concludes with an assessment of the overall case for and against the use of RCTs in psychotherapy outcome research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines a novel notion of causality, namely, fuzzy-set-theoretic causality. Over the last decade, a number of conceptual models of causality, in the language of fuzzy-set theory, have appeared in the scientific literature and have been applied to empirical research. They have circulated widely from one scientific discipline to another, weaving a unifying thread through them. However, they have received no philosophical attention. In this paper, I will discuss the value and limitations of this type of model and will read into its application several dimensions of philosophical significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent PSA paper (2001a), as well as some other papers (1995, 2000, 2001b) and a book chapter (1999, Chapter 7), Stathis Psillos raised a number of objections against structural realism. The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to evaluate part of Psillos' offence on the Russellian version of epistemic structural realism (ESR); (2) to elaborate more fully what Russellian ESR involves; and (3) to suggest improvements where it is indeed failing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent the theoretical structure underlying the scheme. This is followed by an example of a change of hypotheses. The paper then presents a general framework for hypotheses change, and proposes the minimization of the distance between hypotheses as a rationality criterion. Finally the paper discusses the import of this for Bayesian statistical inference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tries to get a grip on two seemingly conflicting intuitions about reductionism in quantum mechanics. On one hand it is received wisdom that quantum mechanics puts an end to `reductionism'. Quantum entanglement is responsible for such features of quantum mechanics as holism, the failure of supervenience, and emergence. While I agree with these claims, I will argue that it is only part of the story. Quantum mechanics provides us with thoroughgoing reductionist explanations. I will distinguish two kinds of microexplanation (or micro-'reduction'). I will argue that even though quantum entanglement provides an example of the failure of one kind of microex- planation, it does not affect the other. Contrary to a recent paper by Kronz and Tiehen, I claim that the explanation of the dynamics of quantum mechanical systems is just as reductionist as it used to be in classical mechanics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

David Lewis (1979) defends the thesis of the asymmetry of overdetermination: later affairs are seldom overdetermined by earlier affairs, but earlier affairs are usually overdetermined by later affairs. Recently, Carol Cleland (2002) has argued that since the distinctive methodologies of historical science and experimental science exploit different aspects of this asymmetry, the methodology of historical science is just as good, epistemically speaking, as that of experimental science. This paper shows, first, that Cleland's epistemological conclusion does not follow from the thesis of the asymmetry of overdetermination, because overdetermination (in Lewis's sense) is compatible with epistemic underdetermination. The paper also shows, contra Cleland, that there is at least one interesting sense in which historical science is epistemically inferior to experimental science, after all, because local underdetermination problems are more widespread in historical than in experimental science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper is based on ranking theory, a theory of degrees of disbelief (and hence belief). On this basis, it explains enumerative induction, the confirmation of a law by its positive instances, which may, indeed, take various schemes. It gives a ranking theoretic ex- plication of a possible law or a nomological hypothesis. It proves, then, that such schemes of enumerative induction uniquely correspond to mixtures of such nomological hypotheses. Thus, it shows both that de Finetti' s probabilistic representation theorems may be transformed into an account of confirmation of possible laws and that enumerative induction is equivalent to such an account. The paper concludes with some remarks about the apriority of lawfulness, or the uniformity of nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many people argue that uncertain science-or controversial policies based on science--can be clarified primarily by greater attention to social/political values influencing the science and by greater attention to the vested interests involved. This paper argues that while such clarification is necessary, it is not a sufficient condition for achieving better science and policy; indeed its importance may be overemphasized. Using a case study involving the current, highly politicized controversy over the shape of dose-response curves for biological effects of ionizing radiation, the paper argues that the conflict could be significantly resolved through specific methodological improvements in the areas of metascience and philosophy of science. These improvements focus on taking account, respectively, of scale, data trimming, aggregation, measurability, and simplicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares human diversity with biological diversity generally. Drawing on the pluralistic perspective on biological species defended in earlier work (2002, chs. 3 and 4), I argue that there are useful parallels to be drawn between human and animal kinds, as there are between their respective sources in cultural evolution and evolution generally. This view is developed in opposition to the insistence by sociobiologists and their successors on minimizing the significance of culture. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relation between cultural difference and individual difference, and the relation of the latter to conceptions of human freedom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues, first, that recent studies of experimentation, most notably by Deborah Mayo, provide the onceptual resources to describe scientific discovery's early stages as error-probing processes. Second, it shows that this description yields greater understanding of those early stages, including the challenges that they pose, the research strategies associated with them, and their influence on the rest of the discovery process. Throughout, the paper examines the phenomenon of ''chemical hormesis'' (i.e., anomalous low-dose effects from toxic chemicals) as a case study that is important not only for the biological sciences but also for contemporary public policy. The resulting analysis is significant for at least two reasons. First, by elucidating the importance of discovery's earliest stages, it expands previous accounts by philosophers such as William Wimsatt and Lindley Darden. Second, it identifies the discovery process as yet another philosophical topic on which the detailed studies of the ''new experimentalists'' can shed new light. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between simulation and experiment. Many discussions of simulation, and indeed the term "numerical experiments," invoke a strong metaphor of experimentation. On the other hand, many simulations begin as attempts to apply scientific theories. This has lead many to characterize simulation as lying between theory and experiment. The aim of the paper is to try to reconcile these two points of view--to understand what methodological and epistemological features simulation has in common with experimentation, while at the same time keeping a keen eye on simulation's ancestry as a form of scientific theorizing. In so doing, it seeks to apply some of the insights of recent work on the philosophy of experiment to an aspect of theorizing that is of growing philosophical interest: the construction of local models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is an attempt to spell out what makes the scientific study of pain so distinctive from a philosophical perspective. Using the IASP definition of ‘pain’ (1986) as our guide, we raise a number of questions about the philosophical assumptions underlying the scientific study of pain. We argue that unlike the study of ordinary perception, the study of pain focuses from the very start on the experience itself and its qualities, without making deep assumptions about whether pain experiences are perceptual. This in turn puts scientific explanation in a curious position due to pain's inherently subjective epistemic nature. The reason for this focus on the experience itself and its qualities, we argue, has to do with pain's complex phenomenology involving an affective/motivational dimension. We argue for the scientific legitimacy of first-person phenomenological studies and attempts to correlate phenomenology with neural events. We argue that this methodological procedure is inevitable and has no anti-physicalist ontological implications when properly understood. We end the paper by commenting on a discussion between two prominent pain scientists in the field, Don Price and Howard Fields, about the need to distinguish more dimensions in the phenomenology of pain and how to classify them vis-à-vis the recent scientific findings. Our interest in this discussion is not only to introduce some clarifications but also to show how ‘neurophenomenology’ has already been shaping the scientific research and to back our claim about why this methodology is inevitable with an example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Replies to comments on an analysis of the structure of a scientific paper on plate tectonics using philosophical models. Argumentative and organizational structures of the paper; Coherence of standard philosophical analyses of testing; Strategies for grounding the reasonableness of experimental claims.

Presents a paper which argues that supervenience is an inadequate device for representing relations between different levels of phenomena. Information on William Wimsatt's paper on `Emergence as Non-Aggregativity'; What is the possible criteria for emergence; Conclusions reached on physical levels.

Opinion. Comments on complexity experimentation in biology, with focus on Hans-Jorg Rheinberger's paper, which provides a useful framework for discussing Sylvia Culp's and Robert Richardson's contributions regarding complexity experimentation in biology. Indepth look at the paper.

Opinion. Responds to criticisms of the author's paper `Freud's Tally' Argument, Placebo Control Treatments, and Evaluation of Psychotheraphy.' Identification of the source of paper; Information on Placebo control treatments.

In this essay I examine a well-known articulation of human nature skepticism, a paper by Hull. I then review a recent reply to Hull by Machery, which argues for an account of human nature that he claims is both useful and scientifically robust. I challenge Machery's account and introduce an alternative account--the "life-history trait cluster" conception of human nature--that I hold is scientifically sound and makes sense of (at least some of) our intuitions about--and desiderata for--human nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multiple-models approach, which has its origins in Levins's work, is gaining broader acceptance among philosophers. Levins asserted that there is a trade-off between modeling desiderata, which justified the multiple-models approach through two separate justificatory paths. Some attention has been paid to the trade-off thesis, culminating in a paper by Matthewson and Weisberg. However, no attention has been paid to how the trade-off is supposed to justify the multiple-models approach. I argue that a trade-off between generality and precision cannot support one of Levins's justificatory paths, and I consider what that might mean for the multiple-models approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Halvorson argues through a series of examples and a general result due to Myers that the "semantic view" of theories has no available account of formal theoretical equivalence. De Bouvere provides criteria overlooked in Halvorson's paper that are immune to his counterexamples and to the theorem he cites. Those criteria accord with a modest version of the semantic view that rejects some of Van Fraassen's apparent claims while retaining the core of Patrick Suppes's proposal. I do not endorse any version of the semantic view of theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a series of recent papers, Simon Saunders, Fred Muller and Michael Seevinck have collectively argued, against the folklore, that some non-trivial version of Leibniz's principle of the identity of indiscernibles is upheld in quantum mechanics. They argue that all particles--fermions, paraparticles, anyons, even bosons--may be weakly discerned by some physical relation. Here I show that their arguments make illegitimate appeal to non-symmetric, that is, permutation-non-invariant, quantities, and that therefore their conclusions do not go through. However, I show that alternative, symmetric quantities may be found to do the required work. I conclude that the Saunders-Muller-Seevinck heterodoxy can be saved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paul Needham has claimed in several recent papers that Dalton's chemical atomism was not explanatory. I respond to his criticism of Dalton by arguing that explanation admits of degrees and that under a view that allows for a spectrum of explanatory value, it is possible to see ample worth in Dalton's atomistic explanations. Furthermore, I argue that even Duhem, who rejected atomism, acknowledged the explanatory worth of Dalton's atomism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theory of mind (ToM) deficit associated with autism spectrum disorder has been a central topic in the debate about the modularity of the mind. In a series of papers, Philip Gerrans and Valerie Stone argue that positing a ToM module does not best explain the deficits exhibited by individuals with autism. In this article, I first criticize Gerrans and Stone's account. Second, I discuss various studies of individuals with autism and argue that they are best explained by positing a higher-level, domain-specific ToM module. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper, Brandon and Nijhout argue against genic selectionism--the thesis, roughly, that evolutionary processes are best understood from the gene's-eye point of view--by presenting a case in which genic models of selection allegedly make predictions that conflict with the (correct) predictions of higher-level genotypic selection models. Their argument, if successful, would refute the widely held belief that genic models and higher-level models are predictively equivalent. Here, I argue that Brandon and Nijhout fail to demonstrate that the models make incompatible predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I discuss the prospects of nominalistic scientific realism (NSR) and show that it fails on many counts. In section 2, I discuss what is required for NSR to get off the ground. In section 3, I question the idea that theories have well-defined nominalistic content and the idea that causal activity is a necessary condition for commitment to the reality of an entity. In section 4, I challenge the notion of nominalistic adequacy of theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thought experiments are ubiquitous in science and especially prominent in domains in which experimental and observational evidence is scarce. One such domain is the causal analysis of singular events in history. A long-standing tradition that goes back to Max Weber addresses the issue by means of 'what-if' counterfactuals. In this paper I give a descriptive account of this widely used method and argue that historians following it examine difference makers rather than causes in the philosopher's sense. While difference making is neither necessary nor sufficient for causation, to establish difference makers is more consistent with the historians' more ultimate purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sewall Wright and Gustave Malécot developed important theories of isolation by distance. Wright's theory was statistical and Malécot's probabilistic. Because of this mathematical difference, they were not clear about the relationship between their theories. In this paper, I make two points to clarify this relationship. First, I argue that Wright's theory concerns what I call ecological isolation by distance, whereas Malécot's concerns what I call genetic isolation by distance. Second, I suggest that if Wright's theory is interpreted appropriately, a previously unnoticed connection between the two theories emerges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In some recent papers, Max Coltheart has questioned the ability of neuroimaging techniques to tell us anything interesting about the mind and has thrown down the gauntlet before neuroimagers, challenging them to prove he is mistaken. Here I analyze Coltheart's challenge, show that as posed its terms are unfair, and reconstruct it so that it is addressable. I argue that, so modified, Coltheart's challenge is able to be met and indeed has been met. In an effort to delineate the extent of neuroimaging's ability to address Coltheart's concerns, I explore how different brain structure-function relationships would constrain the ability of neuroimaging to provide insight about psychological questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Philosophers of science readily acknowledge that nonepistemic values influence the discovery and pursuit of scientific theories, but many tend to regard these influences as epistemically uninteresting. The present paper challenges this position by identifying three avenues through which nonepistemic values associated with discovery and pursuit in contemporary pollution research influence theory appraisal: (1) by guiding the choice of questions and research projects, (2) by altering experimental design, and (3) by affecting the creation and further investigation of theories or hypotheses. This analysis indicates that the effects of these values are sufficiently complex and epistemically significant to merit further attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main problem with the many-worlds theory is that it is not clear how the notion of probability should be understood in a theory in which every possible outcome of a measurement actually occurs. In this paper, I argue for the following theses concerning the many-worlds theory: (1) If probability can be applied at all to measurement outcomes, it must function as a measure of an agent's self-location uncertainty. (2) Such probabilities typically violate reflection. (3) Many-worlds branching does not have sufficient structure to admit self-location probabilities. (4) Decision-theoretic arguments do not solve this problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates a general argument for the conclusion that visual representations in science must play the role of truth bearers if they are to figure as legitimate contributors to scientific arguments and explanations. The argument is found to be unsound. An alternative approach to assessing the role of visual representations in science is exemplified by an examination of the role of structural formulas in organic chemistry. Structural formulas are found not to play the role of truth bearers; nonetheless, they contribute to the arguments and explanations of organic chemistry. An early success of conformational analysis is presented in order to illustrate the role of structural formulas in the discourse of organic chemistry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Goodman's paradox gives rise to a cluster of problems, problems that are in need of different answers. I will discuss some variants of the grue hypothesis applied to the technological context. One conclusion in this paper is that there is room for rational decisions, and that solutions to the paradoxes in technology can be found in the practical choice situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of evolutionary developmental biology ("evo-devo") has recently experienced a dramatic surge in popularity among researchers and theorists concerned with evolution. However, some biologists and philosophers remain skeptical of the claims of evo-devo. This paper discusses and responds to the recent high profile criticisms of evo-devo presented by biologists Hopi E. Hoekstra and Jerry A. Coyne. I argue that their objections are unconvincing. Indeed, empirical research supports the main tenets of evo-devo, including the claim that morphological evolution is the result of cisregulatory change and the distinction that evo-devo draws between morphological and physiological traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We advocate and share the same theoretical framework for empirical research in ethics as exemplified in Christina Bicchieri's The Grammar of Society. Our research differs from Bicchieri's in our approach to experimentation: where she relies on lab experiments, we have constructed an experimental platform based on an internet survey instrument; where she relies on rational reconstructions, we do not. In this paper we focus on four contrasts in our methods: (1) we provide a space to explore ethical influence and norm transmission between participants, belief and choice revision, and reputation over time; (2) we provide ways for participants to expand the context of their and others' decisions; (3) we focus on more realistic ethical decisions than is allowed by games; and (4) we explain why Bicchieri's method of rational reconstructions presents challenges to her theory of social norms. Our methods are complementary to Bicchieri's, and together we can work toward developing more comprehensive empirically informed ethics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primacy of physics generates a philosophical problem that the naturalist must solve in order to be entitled to an egalitarian acceptance of the ontological commitments he or she inherits from the special sciences and fundamental physics. The problem is the generalized causal exclusion argument. If there is no genuine causation in the domains of the special sciences but only in fundamental physics then there are grounds for doubting the existence of macroscopic objects and properties, or at least the concreteness of them. The aim of this paper is to show that the causal exclusion problem derives its force from a false dichotomy between Humeanism about causation and a notion of productive or generative causation based on a defunct model of the physical world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In two recent papers Barry Loewer (2001, 2004) has suggested to interpret probabilities in statistical mechanics as chances in David Lewis's (1994) sense. I first give a precise formulation of this proposal, then raise two fundamental objections, and finally conclude that these can be overcome only at the price of interpreting these probabilities epistemically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]