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Understanding the factors that govern the dynamics and distribution of animal and plant parasites and pathogens has taken on a new urgency in the face of global climate change. Many disease-causing organisms are strongly influenced by environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall and humidity, which are in turn influenced by climate change. If a disease can be controlled effectively, the consequence of climate (and climate change) could largely be mitigated, but where control is difficult or impossible, the consequences could be substantial. [Extracted from the article]

The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems. The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems. This size-based modelling study shows that the source, size and abundance of primary and secondary producers are critical to understanding impacts of global heating on coastal fish communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theory predicts that temperature fluctuations should reduce performance near an organism's thermal optimum. A new study in PLOS Biology found fluctuations increased parasite transmission instead, highlighting questions about how climate change will impact infectious diseases. Theory predicts that temperature fluctuations should reduce performance near an organism's thermal optimum. This Primer explores a new study in PLOS Biology showing that fluctuations increased parasite transmission instead, highlighting questions about how climate change will impact infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations. Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity is at risk. This study demonstrates that existing conservation efforts will be insufficient in a changing world and that simultaneous global and regional efforts are urgently required to conserve Antarctic biodiversity for future generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ongoing loss of experts in marine cellular biochemistry and physiology (CBP) is stagnating the generation of knowledge upon which rapidly growing "omics" approaches rely, ultimately hampering our ability to predict organismal responses to climate change. The ongoing loss of expertise on the biochemistry and physiology of marine organisms is hampering our understanding of biological mechanisms and will ultimately affect our ability to predict organismal responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to have complex effects on infectious diseases, causing some to increase, others to decrease, and many to shift their distributions. There have been several important advances in understanding the role of climate and climate change on wildlife and human infectious disease dynamics over the past several years. This essay examines 3 major areas of advancement, which include improvements to mechanistic disease models, investigations into the importance of climate variability to disease dynamics, and understanding the consequences of thermal mismatches between host and parasites. Applying the new information derived from these advances to climate–disease models and addressing the pressing knowledge gaps that we identify should improve the capacity to predict how climate change will affect disease risk for both wildlife and humans. Climate change is expected to have complex effects on infectious diseases, causing some to increase, others to decrease, and many to shift their distributions. This Essay explores four major advancements in climate change-disease research and proposes outstanding questions to further advance the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing a thorough understanding of how ectotherm physiology adapts to different thermal environments is of crucial importance, especially in the face of global climate change. A key aspect of an organism's thermal performance curve (TPC)—the relationship between fitness-related trait performance and temperature—is its thermal sensitivity, i.e., the rate at which trait values increase with temperature within its typically experienced thermal range. For a given trait, the distribution of thermal sensitivities across species, often quantified as "activation energy" values, is typically right-skewed. Currently, the mechanisms that generate this distribution are unclear, with considerable debate about the role of thermodynamic constraints versus adaptive evolution. Here, using a phylogenetic comparative approach, we study the evolution of the thermal sensitivity of population growth rate across phytoplankton (Cyanobacteria and eukaryotic microalgae) and prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea), 2 microbial groups that play a major role in the global carbon cycle. We find that thermal sensitivity across these groups is moderately phylogenetically heritable, and that its distribution is shaped by repeated evolutionary convergence throughout its parameter space. More precisely, we detect bursts of adaptive evolution in thermal sensitivity, increasing the amount of overlap among its distributions in different clades. We obtain qualitatively similar results from evolutionary analyses of the thermal sensitivities of 2 physiological rates underlying growth rate: net photosynthesis and respiration of plants. Furthermore, we find that these episodes of evolutionary convergence are consistent with 2 opposing forces: decrease in thermal sensitivity due to environmental fluctuations and increase due to adaptation to stable environments. Overall, our results indicate that adaptation can lead to large and relatively rapid shifts in thermal sensitivity, especially in microbes for which rapid evolution can occur at short timescales. Thus, more attention needs to be paid to elucidating the implications of rapid evolution in organismal thermal sensitivity for ecosystem functioning. Whether and how the thermal sensitivities of biological traits respond to different environments is a topic of active debate. This study shows that the thermal sensitivity of population growth rate does not evolve in a gradual manner across microbes, but often undergoes rapid adaptive evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 most likely had its origins in wildlife, and hundreds of thousands of new viruses could spill over from wildlife to humans. We are struggling to combat climate change, and we are staring down the loss of a million species. It's time to change course. This Perspective article argues that as we struggle to combat climate change, with the potential loss of a million species and increasing exposure to thousands of new viruses that could spill over from wildlife to humans (as SARS-CoV-2 likely did), it is time to change course. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue on topics including the management and preservation of species and the ecosystem, a new approach in freshwater fish conservation and the life trajectory of a jaguar.

The article looks at biodiversity accounting through which one can address the challenges of global change, and develop powerful and scientifically sound indicators. It mentions critical differences that should be considered when assessing biodiversity which include biotic homogenization, ecosystem functions and services, and evolutionary history.

More than 100 years after Grigg’s influential analysis of species’ borders, the causes of limits to species’ ranges still represent a puzzle that has never been understood with clarity. The topic has become especially important recently as many scientists have become interested in the potential for species’ ranges to shift in response to climate change—and yet nearly all of those studies fail to recognise or incorporate evolutionary genetics in a way that relates to theoretical developments. I show that range margins can be understood based on just two measurable parameters: (i) the fitness cost of dispersal—a measure of environmental heterogeneity—and (ii) the strength of genetic drift, which reduces genetic diversity. Together, these two parameters define an ‘expansion threshold’: adaptation fails when genetic drift reduces genetic diversity below that required for adaptation to a heterogeneous environment. When the key parameters drop below this expansion threshold locally, a sharp range margin forms. When they drop below this threshold throughout the species’ range, adaptation collapses everywhere, resulting in either extinction or formation of a fragmented metapopulation. Because the effects of dispersal differ fundamentally with dimension, the second parameter—the strength of genetic drift—is qualitatively different compared to a linear habitat. In two-dimensional habitats, genetic drift becomes effectively independent of selection. It decreases with ‘neighbourhood size’—the number of individuals accessible by dispersal within one generation. Moreover, in contrast to earlier predictions, which neglected evolution of genetic variance and/or stochasticity in two dimensions, dispersal into small marginal populations aids adaptation. This is because the reduction of both genetic and demographic stochasticity has a stronger effect than the cost of dispersal through increased maladaptation. The expansion threshold thus provides a novel, theoretically justified, and testable prediction for formation of the range margin and collapse of the species’ range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bigger is apparently frequently fitter, and body size is typically heritable, so why don’t animals in wild populations evolve towards larger sizes? Different explanations have been proposed for this apparent “paradox of stasis.” A new study of snow voles in the Swiss Alps finds higher survival in animals with larger body mass and heritability of body mass, but, surprisingly, a genetic decline in body mass is also indicated. The authors suggest a novel explanation for this observation: the appearance of positive phenotypic selection is driven by a confounding variable of the age at which a juvenile is measured, whereas the evolutionarily relevant selection actually acts negatively on mass via its association with development time. Thus, genes for larger mass are not actually “fitter” because they are associated with longer development times, and juvenile snow voles with longer development times run the risk of not completing development before the first winter snow. However, the genetic decline in body size is not apparent at the phenotypic level, presumably because of countervailing trends in environmental effects on the phenotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the “warm edges” of species’ ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species are linked to each other by a myriad of positive and negative interactions. This complex spectrum of interactions constitutes a network of links that mediates ecological communities’ response to perturbations, such as exploitation and climate change. In the last decades, there have been great advances in the study of intricate ecological networks. We have, nonetheless, lacked both the data and the tools to more rigorously understand the patterning of multiple interaction types between species (i.e., “multiplex networks”), as well as their consequences for community dynamics. Using network statistical modeling applied to a comprehensive ecological network, which includes trophic and diverse non-trophic links, we provide a first glimpse at what the full “entangled bank” of species looks like. The community exhibits clear multidimensional structure, which is taxonomically coherent and broadly predictable from species traits. Moreover, dynamic simulations suggest that this non-random patterning of how diverse non-trophic interactions map onto the food web could allow for higher species persistence and higher total biomass than expected by chance and tends to promote a higher robustness to extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: The effects on survival of species-species interaction in the face of a changing climate depend on whether the species' interests are conflicting or non-conflicting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Parameterisation of a mechanistic population model with data from a 51-year study on great tits suggests that phenotypic plasticity is crucial for viability of bird populations under current climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most unusual, and thus irreplaceable, functions performed by species in three different species-rich ecosystems are fulfilled by only the rare species in these ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the authors discuss the effects of climate change in water resources conservation. They state that climate change was a serious problem because a small change in climate may alter the hydrological cycle. They mention that climate-infrastructure errors could produce repercussion to the economy and ecosystem. They also present practical decision making tools in funding, operating, and designing water infrastructures for ecological and economic sustainability.

Climate change disrupts ecological systems in many ways. Many documented responses depend on species' life histories, contributing to the view that climate change effects are important but difficult to characterize generally. However, systematic variation in metabolic effects of temperature across trophic levels suggests that warming may lead to predictable shifts in food web structure and productivity. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on food web structure and productivity under two resource supply scenarios. Consistent with predictions based on universal metabolic responses to temperature, we found that warming strengthened consumer control of primary production when resources were augmented. Warming shifted food web structure and reduced total biomass despite increases in primary productivity in a marine food web. In contrast, at lower resource levels, food web production was constrained at all temperatures. These results demonstrate that small temperature changes could dramatically shift food web dynamics and provide a general, species-independent mechanism for ecological response to environmental temperature change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of chytrid fungus, rather than climate change, best explains amphibian declines in Central and South America, based on an analysis of observed epidemics with predictable spatiotemporal patterns in four of five mountain ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating changes in range size of land bird species using Millenium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios reveals that land conversion, as well as climate change, will lead to the decline of many species, particularly those in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this century, increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are expected to cause warmer surface temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. At the same time, reactive nitrogen is entering natural systems at unprecedented rates. These global environmental changes have consequences for the functioning of natural ecosystems, and responses of these systems may feed back to affect climate and atmospheric composition. Here, we report plant growth responses of an ecosystem exposed to factorial combinations of four expected global environmental changes. We exposed California grassland to elevated CO2, temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition for five years. Root and shoot production did not respond to elevated CO2 or modest warming. Supplemental precipitation led to increases in shoot production and offsetting decreases in root production. Supplemental nitrate deposition increased total production by an average of 26%, primarily by stimulating shoot growth. Interactions among the main treatments were rare. Together, these results suggest that production in this grassland will respond minimally to changes in CO2 and winter precipitation, and to small amounts of warming. Increased nitrate deposition would have stronger effects on the grassland. Aside from this nitrate response, expectations that a changing atmosphere and climate would promote carbon storage by increasing plant growth appear unlikely to be realized in this system. The first five years of the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment show that production responses of the grassland to changes in climate and CO2 concentration are unlikely to lead to increased productivity on their own. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change. Reintroducing wolves can help ameliorate the negative effects of warmer winters on other species and reveals the importance of maintaining intact food chains in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how climatic change impacts biological diversity is critical to conservation. Yet despite demonstrated effects of climatic perturbation on geographic ranges and population persistence, surprisingly little is known of the genetic response of species. Even less is known over ecologically long time scales pertinent to understanding the interplay between microevolution and environmental change. Here, we present a study of population variation by directly tracking genetic change and population size in two geographically widespread mammal species (Microtus montanus and Thomomys tolpoides) during late-Holocene climatic change. We use ancient DNA to compare two independent estimates of population size (ecological and genetic) and corroborate our results with gene diversity and serial coalescent simulations. Our data and analyses indicate that, with population size decreasing at times of climatic change, some species will exhibit declining gene diversity as expected from simple population genetic models, whereas others will not. While our results could be consistent with selection, independent lines of evidence implicate differences in gene flow, which depends on the life history strategy of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how climatic change impacts biological diversity is critical to conservation. Yet despite demonstrated effects of climatic perturbation on geographic ranges and population persistence, surprisingly little is known of the genetic response of species. Even less is known over ecologically long time scales pertinent to understanding the interplay between microevolution and environmental change. Here, we present a study of population variation by directly tracking genetic change and population size in two geographically widespread mammal species (Microtus montanus and Thomomys talpoides) during late-Holocene climatic change. We use ancient DNA to compare two independent estimates of population size (ecological and genetic) and corroborate our results with gene diversity and serial coalescent simulations. Our data and analyses indicate that, with population size decreasing at times of climatic change, some species will exhibit declining gene diversity as expected from simple population genetic models, whereas others will not. While our results could be consistent with selection, independent lines of evidence implicate differences in gene flow, which depends on the life history strategy of species. A novel analysis of paleoclimatic data, fossil abundance and contemporary and ancient DNA from different time periods introduces "phylochronology" and reveals how species respond genetically to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the role of slowing tropical deforestation in mitigating climate change. The research also suggests that a key group of countries are at risk of being omitted from a new framework, those with high forest cover and low rates of deforestation (HFLD). HFLD countries would receive a significant incentive to maintain low rates of deforestation from any reference emission rate indexed to the global average.