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Prophylactic interventions such as vaccine allocation are some of the most effective public health policy planning tools. The supply of vaccines, however, is limited and an important challenge is to optimally allocate the vaccines to minimize epidemic impact. This resource allocation question (which we refer to as VID) has multiple dimensions: when, where, to whom, etc. Most of the existing literature in this topic deals with the latter (to whom), proposing policies that prioritize individuals by age and disease risk. However, since seasonal influenza spread has a typical spatial trend, and due to the temporal constraints enforced by the availability schedule, the when and where problems become equally, if not more, relevant. In this paper, we study the VID problem in the context of seasonal influenza spread in the United States. We develop a national scale metapopulation model for influenza that integrates both short and long distance human mobility, along with realistic data on vaccine uptake. We also design GA, a greedy algorithm for allocating the vaccine supply at the state level under temporal constraints and show that such a strategy improves over the current baseline of pro-rata allocation, and the improvement is more pronounced for higher vaccine efficacy and moderate flu season intensity. Further, the resulting strategy resembles a ring vaccination applied spatiallyacross the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major tenet in theoretical neuroscience is that cognitive and behavioral processes are ultimately implemented in terms of the neural system dynamics. Accordingly, a major aim for the analysis of neurophysiological measurements should lie in the identification of the computational dynamics underlying task processing. Here we advance a state space model (SSM) based on generative piecewise-linear recurrent neural networks (PLRNN) to assess dynamics from neuroimaging data. In contrast to many other nonlinear time series models which have been proposed for reconstructing latent dynamics, our model is easily interpretable in neural terms, amenable to systematic dynamical systems analysis of the resulting set of equations, and can straightforwardly be transformed into an equivalent continuous-time dynamical system. The major contributions of this paper are the introduction of a new observation model suitable for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) coupled to the latent PLRNN, an efficient stepwise training procedure that forces the latent model to capture the ‘true’ underlying dynamics rather than just fitting (or predicting) the observations, and of an empirical measure based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to evaluate from empirical time series how well this goal of approximating the underlying dynamics has been achieved. We validate and illustrate the power of our approach on simulated ‘ground-truth’ dynamical systems as well as on experimental fMRI time series, and demonstrate that the learnt dynamics harbors task-related nonlinear structure that a linear dynamical model fails to capture. Given that fMRI is one of the most common techniques for measuring brain activity non-invasively in human subjects, this approach may provide a novel step toward analyzing aberrant (nonlinear) dynamics for clinical assessment or neuroscientific research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systems biology models are used to understand complex biological and physiological systems. Interpretation of these models is an important part of developing this understanding. These models are often fit to experimental data in order to understand how the system has produced various phenomena or behaviour that are seen in the data. In this paper, we have outlined a framework that can be used to perform Bayesian analysis of complex systems biology models. In particular, we have focussed on analysing a systems biology of the brain using both simulated and measured data. By using a combination of sensitivity analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, we have shown that it is possible to obtain distributions of parameters that can better guard against misinterpretation of results, as compared to a maximum likelihood estimate based approach. This is done through analysis of simulated and experimental data. NIRS measurements were simulated using the same simulated systemic input data for the model in a ‘healthy’ and ‘impaired’ state. By analysing both of these datasets, we show that different parameter spaces can be distinguished and compared between different physiological states or conditions. Finally, we analyse experimental data using the new Bayesian framework and the previous maximum likelihood estimate approach, showing that the Bayesian approach provides a more complete understanding of the parameter space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phylodynamic modelling, which studies the joint dynamics of epidemiological and evolutionary processes, has made significant progress in recent years due to increasingly available genomic data and advances in statistical modelling. These advances have greatly improved our understanding of transmission dynamics of many important pathogens. Nevertheless, there remains a lack of effective, targetted diagnostic tools for systematically detecting model mis-specification. Development of such tools is essential for model criticism, refinement, and calibration. The idea of utilising latent residuals for model assessment has already been exploited in general spatio-temporal epidemiological settings. Specifically, by proposing appropriately designed non-centered, re-parameterizations of a given epidemiological process, one can construct latent residuals with known sampling distributions which can be used to quantify evidence of model mis-specification. In this paper, we extend this idea to formulate a novel model-diagnostic framework for phylodynamic models. Using simulated examples, we show that our framework may effectively detect a particular form of mis-specification in a phylodynamic model, particularly in the event of superspreading. We also exemplify our approach by applying the framework to a dataset describing a local foot-and-mouth (FMD) outbreak in the UK, eliciting strong evidence against the assumption of no within-host-diversity in the outbreak. We further demonstrate that our framework can facilitate model calibration in real-life scenarios, by proposing a within-host-diversity model which appears to offer a better fit to data than one that assumes no within-host-diversity of FMD virus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian adaptive dual controller (ADC) for autonomously programming deep brain stimulation devices. We evaluated the Bayesian ADC’s performance in the context of reducing beta power in a computational model of Parkinson’s disease, in which it was tasked with finding the set of stimulation parameters which optimally reduced beta power as fast as possible. Here, the Bayesian ADC has dual goals: (a) to minimize beta power by exploiting the best parameters found so far, and (b) to explore the space to find better parameters, thus allowing for better control in the future. The Bayesian ADC is composed of two parts: an inner parameterized feedback stimulator and an outer parameter adjustment loop. The inner loop operates on a short time scale, delivering stimulus based upon the phase and power of the beta oscillation. The outer loop operates on a long time scale, observing the effects of the stimulation parameters and using Bayesian optimization to intelligently select new parameters to minimize the beta power. We show that the Bayesian ADC can efficiently optimize stimulation parameters, and is superior to other optimization algorithms. The Bayesian ADC provides a robust and general framework for tuning stimulation parameters, can be adapted to use any feedback signal, and is applicable across diseases and stimulator designs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a current interest in quantifying time-varying connectivity (TVC) based on neuroimaging data such as fMRI. Many methods have been proposed, and are being applied, revealing new insight into the brain’s dynamics. However, given that the ground truth for TVC in the brain is unknown, many concerns remain regarding the accuracy of proposed estimates. Since there exist many TVC methods it is difficult to assess differences in time-varying connectivity between studies. In this paper, we present tvc_benchmarker, which is a Python package containing four simulations to test TVC methods. Here, we evaluate five different methods that together represent a wide spectrum of current approaches to estimating TVC (sliding window, tapered sliding window, multiplication of temporal derivatives, spatial distance and jackknife correlation). These simulations were designed to test each method’s ability to track changes in covariance over time, which is a key property in TVC analysis. We found that all tested methods correlated positively with each other, but there were large differences in the strength of the correlations between methods. To facilitate comparisons with future TVC methods, we propose that the described simulations can act as benchmark tests for evaluation of methods. Using tvc_benchmarker researchers can easily add, compare and submit their own TVC methods to evaluate its performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has been widely applied to discover new cell types by detecting sub-populations in a heterogeneous group of cells. Since scRNA-seq experiments have lower read coverage/tag counts and introduce more technical biases compared to bulk RNA-seq experiments, the limited number of sampled cells combined with the experimental biases and other dataset specific variations presents a challenge to cross-dataset analysis and discovery of relevant biological variations across multiple cell populations. In this paper, we introduce a method of variance-driven multitask clustering of single-cell RNA-seq data (scVDMC) that utilizes multiple single-cell populations from biological replicates or different samples. scVDMC clusters single cells in multiple scRNA-seq experiments of similar cell types and markers but varying expression patterns such that the scRNA-seq data are better integrated than typical pooled analyses which only increase the sample size. By controlling the variance among the cell clusters within each dataset and across all the datasets, scVDMC detects cell sub-populations in each individual experiment with shared cell-type markers but varying cluster centers among all the experiments. Applied to two real scRNA-seq datasets with several replicates and one large-scale Drop-seq dataset on three patient samples, scVDMC more accurately detected cell populations and known cell markers than pooled clustering and other recently proposed scRNA-seq clustering methods. In the case study applied to in-house Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (RDEB) scRNA-seq data, scVDMC revealed several new cell types and unknown markers validated by flow cytometry. MATLAB/Octave code available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Budding yeast, which undergoes polarized growth during budding and mating, has been a useful model system to study cell polarization. Bud sites are selected differently in haploid and diploid yeast cells: haploid cells bud in an axial manner, while diploid cells bud in a bipolar manner. While previous studies have been focused on the molecular details of the bud site selection and polarity establishment, not much is known about how different budding patterns give rise to different functions at the population level. In this paper, we develop a two-dimensional agent-based model to study budding yeast colonies with cell-type specific biological processes, such as budding, mating, mating type switch, consumption of nutrients, and cell death. The model demonstrates that the axial budding pattern enhances mating probability at an early stage and the bipolar budding pattern improves colony development under nutrient limitation. Our results suggest that the frequency of mating type switch might control the trade-off between diploidization and inbreeding. The effect of cellular aging is also studied through our model. Based on the simulations, colonies initiated by an aged haploid cell show declined mating probability at an early stage and recover as the rejuvenated offsprings become the majority. Colonies initiated with aged diploid cells do not show disadvantage in colony expansion possibly due to the fact that young cells contribute the most to colony expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrative clustering is used to identify groups of samples by jointly analysing multiple datasets describing the same set of biological samples, such as gene expression, copy number, methylation etc. Most existing algorithms for integrative clustering assume that there is a shared consistent set of clusters across all datasets, and most of the data samples follow this structure. However in practice, the structure across heterogeneous datasets can be more varied, with clusters being joined in some datasets and separated in others. In this paper, we present a probabilistic clustering method to identify groups across datasets that do not share the same cluster structure. The proposed algorithm, Clusternomics, identifies groups of samples that share their global behaviour across heterogeneous datasets. The algorithm models clusters on the level of individual datasets, while also extracting global structure that arises from the local cluster assignments. Clusters on both the local and the global level are modelled using a hierarchical Dirichlet mixture model to identify structure on both levels. We evaluated the model both on simulated and on real-world datasets. The simulated data exemplifies datasets with varying degrees of common structure. In such a setting Clusternomics outperforms existing algorithms for integrative and consensus clustering. In a real-world application, we used the algorithm for cancer subtyping, identifying subtypes of cancer from heterogeneous datasets. We applied the algorithm to TCGA breast cancer dataset, integrating gene expression, miRNA expression, DNA methylation and proteomics. The algorithm extracted clinically meaningful clusters with significantly different survival probabilities. We also evaluated the algorithm on lung and kidney cancer TCGA datasets with high dimensionality, again showing clinically significant results and scalability of the algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the recent technological developments a vast amount of high-throughput data has been profiled to understand the mechanism of complex diseases. The current bioinformatics challenge is to interpret the data and underlying biology, where efficient algorithms for analyzing heterogeneous high-throughput data using biological networks are becoming increasingly valuable. In this paper, we propose a software package based on the Prize-collecting Steiner Forest graph optimization approach. The PCSF package performs fast and user-friendly network analysis of high-throughput data by mapping the data onto a biological networks such as protein-protein interaction, gene-gene interaction or any other correlation or coexpression based networks. Using the interaction networks as a template, it determines high-confidence subnetworks relevant to the data, which potentially leads to predictions of functional units. It also interactively visualizes the resulting subnetwork with functional enrichment analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The human immune system depends on a highly diverse collection of antibody-making B cells. B cell receptor sequence diversity is generated by a random recombination process called “rearrangement” forming progenitor B cells, then a Darwinian process of lineage diversification and selection called “affinity maturation.” The resulting receptors can be sequenced in high throughput for research and diagnostics. Such a collection of sequences contains a mixture of various lineages, each of which may be quite numerous, or may consist of only a single member. As a step to understanding the process and result of this diversification, one may wish to reconstruct lineage membership, i.e. to cluster sampled sequences according to which came from the same rearrangement events. We call this clustering problem “clonal family inference.” In this paper we describe and validate a likelihood-based framework for clonal family inference based on a multi-hidden Markov Model (multi-HMM) framework for B cell receptor sequences. We describe an agglomerative algorithm to find a maximum likelihood clustering, two approximate algorithms with various trade-offs of speed versus accuracy, and a third, fast algorithm for finding specific lineages. We show that under simulation these algorithms greatly improve upon existing clonal family inference methods, and that they also give significantly different clusters than previous methods when applied to two real data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has recently been suggested that movement variability directly increases the speed of motor learning. Here we use computational modeling of motor adaptation to show that variability can have a broad range of effects on learning, both negative and positive. Experimentally, we also find contributing and decelerating effects. Lastly, through a meta-analysis of published papers, we verify that across a wide range of experiments, movement variability has no statistical relation with learning rate. While motor learning is a complex process that can be modeled, further research is needed to understand the relative importance of the involved factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce a fully flexible coarse-grained model of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies parametrized directly on cryo-EM data and simulate the binding dynamics of many IgGs to antigens adsorbed on a surface at increasing densities. Moreover, we work out a theoretical model that allows to explain all the features observed in the simulations. Our combined computational and theoretical framework is in excellent agreement with surface-plasmon resonance data and allows us to establish a number of important results. (i) Internal flexibility is key to maximize bivalent binding, flexible IgGs being able to explore the surface with their second arm in search for an available hapten. This is made clear by the strongly reduced ability to bind with both arms displayed by artificial IgGs designed to rigidly keep a prescribed shape. (ii) The large size of IgGs is instrumental to keep neighboring molecules at a certain distance (surface repulsion), which essentially makes antigens within reach of the second Fab always unoccupied on average. (iii) One needs to account independently for the thermodynamic and geometric factors that regulate the binding equilibrium. The key geometrical parameters, besides excluded-volume repulsion, describe the screening of free haptens by neighboring bound antibodies. We prove that the thermodynamic parameters govern the low-antigen-concentration regime, while the surface screening and repulsion only affect the binding at high hapten densities. Importantly, we prove that screening effects are concealed in relative measures, such as the fraction of bivalently bound antibodies. Overall, our model provides a valuable, accurate theoretical paradigm beyond existing frameworks to interpret experimental profiles of antibodies binding to multi-valent surfaces of different sorts in many contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]