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Budding yeast, which undergoes polarized growth during budding and mating, has been a useful model system to study cell polarization. Bud sites are selected differently in haploid and diploid yeast cells: haploid cells bud in an axial manner, while diploid cells bud in a bipolar manner. While previous studies have been focused on the molecular details of the bud site selection and polarity establishment, not much is known about how different budding patterns give rise to different functions at the population level. In this paper, we develop a two-dimensional agent-based model to study budding yeast colonies with cell-type specific biological processes, such as budding, mating, mating type switch, consumption of nutrients, and cell death. The model demonstrates that the axial budding pattern enhances mating probability at an early stage and the bipolar budding pattern improves colony development under nutrient limitation. Our results suggest that the frequency of mating type switch might control the trade-off between diploidization and inbreeding. The effect of cellular aging is also studied through our model. Based on the simulations, colonies initiated by an aged haploid cell show declined mating probability at an early stage and recover as the rejuvenated offsprings become the majority. Colonies initiated with aged diploid cells do not show disadvantage in colony expansion possibly due to the fact that young cells contribute the most to colony expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major tenet in theoretical neuroscience is that cognitive and behavioral processes are ultimately implemented in terms of the neural system dynamics. Accordingly, a major aim for the analysis of neurophysiological measurements should lie in the identification of the computational dynamics underlying task processing. Here we advance a state space model (SSM) based on generative piecewise-linear recurrent neural networks (PLRNN) to assess dynamics from neuroimaging data. In contrast to many other nonlinear time series models which have been proposed for reconstructing latent dynamics, our model is easily interpretable in neural terms, amenable to systematic dynamical systems analysis of the resulting set of equations, and can straightforwardly be transformed into an equivalent continuous-time dynamical system. The major contributions of this paper are the introduction of a new observation model suitable for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) coupled to the latent PLRNN, an efficient stepwise training procedure that forces the latent model to capture the ‘true’ underlying dynamics rather than just fitting (or predicting) the observations, and of an empirical measure based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to evaluate from empirical time series how well this goal of approximating the underlying dynamics has been achieved. We validate and illustrate the power of our approach on simulated ‘ground-truth’ dynamical systems as well as on experimental fMRI time series, and demonstrate that the learnt dynamics harbors task-related nonlinear structure that a linear dynamical model fails to capture. Given that fMRI is one of the most common techniques for measuring brain activity non-invasively in human subjects, this approach may provide a novel step toward analyzing aberrant (nonlinear) dynamics for clinical assessment or neuroscientific research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systems biology models are used to understand complex biological and physiological systems. Interpretation of these models is an important part of developing this understanding. These models are often fit to experimental data in order to understand how the system has produced various phenomena or behaviour that are seen in the data. In this paper, we have outlined a framework that can be used to perform Bayesian analysis of complex systems biology models. In particular, we have focussed on analysing a systems biology of the brain using both simulated and measured data. By using a combination of sensitivity analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, we have shown that it is possible to obtain distributions of parameters that can better guard against misinterpretation of results, as compared to a maximum likelihood estimate based approach. This is done through analysis of simulated and experimental data. NIRS measurements were simulated using the same simulated systemic input data for the model in a ‘healthy’ and ‘impaired’ state. By analysing both of these datasets, we show that different parameter spaces can be distinguished and compared between different physiological states or conditions. Finally, we analyse experimental data using the new Bayesian framework and the previous maximum likelihood estimate approach, showing that the Bayesian approach provides a more complete understanding of the parameter space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a current interest in quantifying time-varying connectivity (TVC) based on neuroimaging data such as fMRI. Many methods have been proposed, and are being applied, revealing new insight into the brain’s dynamics. However, given that the ground truth for TVC in the brain is unknown, many concerns remain regarding the accuracy of proposed estimates. Since there exist many TVC methods it is difficult to assess differences in time-varying connectivity between studies. In this paper, we present tvc_benchmarker, which is a Python package containing four simulations to test TVC methods. Here, we evaluate five different methods that together represent a wide spectrum of current approaches to estimating TVC (sliding window, tapered sliding window, multiplication of temporal derivatives, spatial distance and jackknife correlation). These simulations were designed to test each method’s ability to track changes in covariance over time, which is a key property in TVC analysis. We found that all tested methods correlated positively with each other, but there were large differences in the strength of the correlations between methods. To facilitate comparisons with future TVC methods, we propose that the described simulations can act as benchmark tests for evaluation of methods. Using tvc_benchmarker researchers can easily add, compare and submit their own TVC methods to evaluate its performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the recent technological developments a vast amount of high-throughput data has been profiled to understand the mechanism of complex diseases. The current bioinformatics challenge is to interpret the data and underlying biology, where efficient algorithms for analyzing heterogeneous high-throughput data using biological networks are becoming increasingly valuable. In this paper, we propose a software package based on the Prize-collecting Steiner Forest graph optimization approach. The PCSF package performs fast and user-friendly network analysis of high-throughput data by mapping the data onto a biological networks such as protein-protein interaction, gene-gene interaction or any other correlation or coexpression based networks. Using the interaction networks as a template, it determines high-confidence subnetworks relevant to the data, which potentially leads to predictions of functional units. It also interactively visualizes the resulting subnetwork with functional enrichment analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), one in twenty five hospital patients are infected with at least one healthcare acquired infection (HAI) on any given day. Early detection of possible HAI outbreaks help practitioners implement countermeasures before the infection spreads extensively. Here, we develop an efficient data and model driven method to detect outbreaks with high accuracy. We leverage mechanistic modeling of C. difficile infection, a major HAI disease, to simulate its spread in a hospital wing and design efficient near-optimal algorithms to select people and locations to monitor using an optimization formulation. Results show that our strategy detects up to 95% of “future” C. difficile outbreaks. We design our method by incorporating specific hospital practices (like swabbing for infections) as well. As a result, our method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms for outbreak detection. Finally, a qualitative study of our result shows that the people and locations we select to monitor as sensors are intuitive and meaningful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic mechanistic epidemiological models largely contribute to better understand pathogen emergence and spread, and assess control strategies at various scales (from within-host to transnational scale). However, developing realistic models which involve multi-disciplinary knowledge integration faces three major challenges in predictive epidemiology: lack of readability once translated into simulation code, low reproducibility and reusability, and long development time compared to outbreak time scale. We introduce here EMULSION, an artificial intelligence-based software intended to address those issues and help modellers focus on model design rather than programming. EMULSION defines a domain-specific language to make all components of an epidemiological model (structure, processes, parameters…) explicit as a structured text file. This file is readable by scientists from other fields (epidemiologists, biologists, economists), who can contribute to validate or revise assumptions at any stage of model development. It is then automatically processed by EMULSION generic simulation engine, preventing any discrepancy between model description and implementation. The modelling language and simulation architecture both rely on the combination of advanced artificial intelligence methods (knowledge representation and multi-level agent-based simulation), allowing several modelling paradigms (from compartment- to individual-based models) at several scales (up to metapopulation). The flexibility of EMULSION and its capability to support iterative modelling are illustrated here through examples of progressive complexity, including late revisions of core model assumptions. EMULSION is also currently used to model the spread of several diseases in real pathosystems. EMULSION provides a command-line tool for checking models, producing model diagrams, running simulations, and plotting outputs. Written in Python 3, EMULSION runs on Linux, MacOS, and Windows. It is released under Apache-2.0 license. A comprehensive documentation with installation instructions, a tutorial and many examples are available from: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In-silico identification of potential target genes for disease is an essential aspect of drug target discovery. Recent studies suggest that successful targets can be found through by leveraging genetic, genomic and protein interaction information. Here, we systematically tested the ability of 12 varied algorithms, based on network propagation, to identify genes that have been targeted by any drug, on gene-disease data from 22 common non-cancerous diseases in OpenTargets. We considered two biological networks, six performance metrics and compared two types of input gene-disease association scores. The impact of the design factors in performance was quantified through additive explanatory models. Standard cross-validation led to over-optimistic performance estimates due to the presence of protein complexes. In order to obtain realistic estimates, we introduced two novel protein complex-aware cross-validation schemes. When seeding biological networks with known drug targets, machine learning and diffusion-based methods found around 2-4 true targets within the top 20 suggestions. Seeding the networks with genes associated to disease by genetics decreased performance below 1 true hit on average. The use of a larger network, although noisier, improved overall performance. We conclude that diffusion-based prioritisers and machine learning applied to diffusion-based features are suited for drug discovery in practice and improve over simpler neighbour-voting methods. We also demonstrate the large impact of choosing an adequate validation strategy and the definition of seed disease genes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pathway analysis is widely used to gain mechanistic insights from high-throughput omics data. However, most existing methods do not consider signal integration represented by pathway topology, resulting in enrichment of convergent pathways when downstream genes are modulated. Incorporation of signal flow and integration in pathway analysis could rank the pathways based on modulation in key regulatory genes. This implementation can be facilitated for large-scale data by discrete state network modeling due to simplicity in parameterization. Here, we model cellular heterogeneity using discrete state dynamics and measure pathway activities in cross-sectional data. We introduce a new algorithm, Boolean Omics Network Invariant-Time Analysis (BONITA), for signal propagation, signal integration, and pathway analysis. Our signal propagation approach models heterogeneity in transcriptomic data as arising from intercellular heterogeneity rather than intracellular stochasticity, and propagates binary signals repeatedly across networks. Logic rules defining signal integration are inferred by genetic algorithm and are refined by local search. The rules determine the impact of each node in a pathway, which is used to score the probability of the pathway’s modulation by chance. We have comprehensively tested BONITA for application to transcriptomics data from translational studies. Comparison with state-of-the-art pathway analysis methods shows that BONITA has higher sensitivity at lower levels source node modulation and similar sensitivity at higher levels of source node modulation. Application of BONITA pathway analysis to previously validated RNA-sequencing studies identifies additional relevant pathways in in-vitro human cell line experiments and in-vivo infant studies. Additionally, BONITA successfully detected modulation of disease specific pathways when comparing relevant RNA-sequencing data with healthy controls. Most interestingly, the two highest impact score nodes identified by BONITA included known drug targets. Thus, BONITA is a powerful approach to prioritize not only pathways but also specific mechanistic role of genes compared to existing methods. BONITA is available at: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Living creatures must accurately infer the nature of their environments. They do this despite being confronted by stochastic and context sensitive contingencies—and so must constantly update their beliefs regarding their uncertainty about what might come next. In this work, we examine how we deal with uncertainty that evolves over time. This prospective uncertainty (or imprecision) is referred to as volatility and has previously been linked to noradrenergic signals that originate in the locus coeruleus. Using pupillary dilatation as a measure of central noradrenergic signalling, we tested the hypothesis that changes in pupil diameter reflect inferences humans make about environmental volatility. To do so, we collected pupillometry data from participants presented with a stream of numbers. We generated these numbers from a process with varying degrees of volatility. By measuring pupillary dilatation in response to these stimuli—and simulating the inferences made by an ideal Bayesian observer of the same stimuli—we demonstrate that humans update their beliefs about environmental contingencies in a Bayes optimal way. We show this by comparing general linear (convolution) models that formalised competing hypotheses about the causes of pupillary changes. We found greater evidence for models that included Bayes optimal estimates of volatility than those without. We additionally explore the interaction between different causes of pupil dilation and suggest a quantitative approach to characterising a person’s prior beliefs about volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent large cancer studies have measured somatic alterations in an unprecedented number of tumours. These large datasets allow the identification of cancer-related sets of genetic alterations by identifying relevant combinatorial patterns. Among such patterns, mutual exclusivity has been employed by several recent methods that have shown its effectiveness in characterizing gene sets associated to cancer. Mutual exclusivity arises because of the complementarity, at the functional level, of alterations in genes which are part of a group (e.g., a pathway) performing a given function. The availability of quantitative target profiles, from genetic perturbations or from clinical phenotypes, provides additional information that can be leveraged to improve the identification of cancer related gene sets by discovering groups with complementary functional associations with such targets. In this work we study the problem of finding groups of mutually exclusive alterations associated with a quantitative (functional) target. We propose a combinatorial formulation for the problem, and prove that the associated computational problem is computationally hard. We design two algorithms to solve the problem and implement them in our tool UNCOVER. We provide analytic evidence of the effectiveness of UNCOVER in finding high-quality solutions and show experimentally that UNCOVER finds sets of alterations significantly associated with functional targets in a variety of scenarios. In particular, we show that our algorithms find sets which are better than the ones obtained by the state-of-the-art method, even when sets are evaluated using the statistical score employed by the latter. In addition, our algorithms are much faster than the state-of-the-art, allowing the analysis of large datasets of thousands of target profiles from cancer cell lines. We show that on two such datasets, one from project Achilles and one from the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer project, UNCOVER identifies several significant gene sets with complementary functional associations with targets. Software available at: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 is being evaluated for its efficacy to prevent HIV-1 infection in the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials. A secondary objective of AMP utilizes sieve analysis to investigate how VRC01 prevention efficacy (PE) varies with HIV-1 envelope (Env) amino acid (AA) sequence features. An exhaustive analysis that tests how PE depends on every AA feature with sufficient variation would have low statistical power. To design an adequately powered primary sieve analysis for AMP, we modeled VRC01 neutralization as a function of Env AA sequence features of 611 HIV-1 gp160 pseudoviruses from the CATNAP database, with objectives: (1) to develop models that best predict the neutralization readouts; and (2) to rank AA features by their predictive importance with classification and regression methods. The dataset was split in half, and machine learning algorithms were applied to each half, each analyzed separately using cross-validation and hold-out validation. We selected Super Learner, a nonparametric ensemble-based cross-validated learning method, for advancement to the primary sieve analysis. This method predicted the dichotomous resistance outcome of whether the IC50 neutralization titer of VRC01 for a given Env pseudovirus is right-censored (indicating resistance) with an average validated AUC of 0.868 across the two hold-out datasets. Quantitative log IC50 was predicted with an average validated R2 of 0.355. Features predicting neutralization sensitivity or resistance included 26 surface-accessible residues in the VRC01 and CD4 binding footprints, the length of gp120, the length of Env, the number of cysteines in gp120, the number of cysteines in Env, and 4 potential N-linked glycosylation sites; the top features will be advanced to the primary sieve analysis. This modeling framework may also inform the study of VRC01 in the treatment of HIV-infected persons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Nile virus (WNV)—a mosquito-borne arbovirus—entered the USA through New York City in 1999 and spread to the contiguous USA within three years while transitioning from epidemic outbreaks to endemic transmission. The virus is transmitted by vector competent mosquitoes and maintained in the avian populations. WNV spatial distribution is mainly determined by the movement of residential and migratory avian populations. We developed an individual-level heterogeneous network framework across the USA with the goal of understanding the long-range spatial distribution of WNV. To this end, we proposed three distance dispersal kernels model: 1) exponential—short-range dispersal, 2) power-law—long-range dispersal in all directions, and 3) power-law biased by flyway direction —long-range dispersal only along established migratory routes. To select the appropriate dispersal kernel we used the human case data and adopted a model selection framework based on approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo sampling (ABC-SMC). From estimated parameters, we find that the power-law biased by flyway direction kernel is the best kernel to fit WNV human case data, supporting the hypothesis of long-range WNV transmission is mainly along the migratory bird flyways. Through extensive simulation from 2014 to 2016, we proposed and tested hypothetical mitigation strategies and found that mosquito population reduction in the infected states and neighboring states is potentially cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of a mesoscopic description level of the brain has now been well established. Rate based models are widely used, but have limitations. Recently, several extremely efficient population-level methods have been proposed that go beyond the characterization of a population in terms of a single variable. Here, we present a method for simulating neural populations based on two dimensional (2D) point spiking neuron models that defines the state of the population in terms of a density function over the neural state space. Our method differs in that we do not make the diffusion approximation, nor do we reduce the state space to a single dimension (1D). We do not hard code the neural model, but read in a grid describing its state space in the relevant simulation region. Novel models can be studied without even recompiling the code. The method is highly modular: variations of the deterministic neural dynamics and the stochastic process can be investigated independently. Currently, there is a trend to reduce complex high dimensional neuron models to 2D ones as they offer a rich dynamical repertoire that is not available in 1D, such as limit cycles. We will demonstrate that our method is ideally suited to investigate noise in such systems, replicating results obtained in the diffusion limit and generalizing them to a regime of large jumps. The joint probability density function is much more informative than 1D marginals, and we will argue that the study of 2D systems subject to noise is important complementary to 1D systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An outstanding problem in neuroscience is to understand how information is integrated across the many modules of the brain. While classic information-theoretic measures have transformed our understanding of feedforward information processing in the brain’s sensory periphery, comparable measures for information flow in the massively recurrent networks of the rest of the brain have been lacking. To address this, recent work in information theory has produced a sound measure of network-wide “integrated information”, which can be estimated from time-series data. But, a computational hurdle has stymied attempts to measure large-scale information integration in real brains. Specifically, the measurement of integrated information involves a combinatorial search for the informational “weakest link” of a network, a process whose computation time explodes super-exponentially with network size. Here, we show that spectral clustering, applied on the correlation matrix of time-series data, provides an approximate but robust solution to the search for the the informational weakest link of large networks. This reduces the computation time for integrated information in large systems from longer than the lifespan of the universe to just minutes. We evaluate this solution in brain-like systems of coupled oscillators as well as in high-density electrocortigraphy data from two macaque monkeys, and show that the informational “weakest link” of the monkey cortex splits posterior sensory areas from anterior association areas. Finally, we use our solution to provide evidence in support of the long-standing hypothesis that information integration is maximized by networks with a high global efficiency, and that modular network structures promote the segregation of information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The locus coeruleus (LC) in the pons is the major source of noradrenaline (NA) in the brain. Two modes of LC firing have been associated with distinct cognitive states: changes in tonic rates of firing are correlated with global levels of arousal and behavioural flexibility, whilst phasic LC responses are evoked by salient stimuli. Here, we unify these two modes of firing by modelling the response of the LC as a correlate of a prediction error when inferring states for action planning under Active Inference (AI). We simulate a classic Go/No-go reward learning task and a three-arm ‘explore/exploit’ task and show that, if LC activity is considered to reflect the magnitude of high level ‘state-action’ prediction errors, then both tonic and phasic modes of firing are emergent features of belief updating. We also demonstrate that when contingencies change, AI agents can update their internal models more quickly by feeding back this state-action prediction error–reflected in LC firing and noradrenaline release–to optimise learning rate, enabling large adjustments over short timescales. We propose that such prediction errors are mediated by cortico-LC connections, whilst ascending input from LC to cortex modulates belief updating in anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). In short, we characterise the LC/ NA system within a general theory of brain function. In doing so, we show that contrasting, behaviour-dependent firing patterns are an emergent property of the LC that translates state-action prediction errors into an optimal balance between plasticity and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mechanical stimulation of the healing tendon is thought to regulate scar anisotropy and strength and is relatively easy to modulate through physical therapy. However, in vivo studies of various loading protocols in animal models have produced mixed results. To integrate and better understand the available data, we developed a multiscale model of rat Achilles tendon healing that incorporates the effect of changes in the mechanical environment on fibroblast behavior, collagen deposition, and scar formation. We modified an OpenSim model of the rat right hindlimb to estimate physiologic strains in the lateral/medial gastrocnemius and soleus musculo-tendon units during loading and unloading conditions. We used the tendon strains as inputs to a thermodynamic model of stress fiber dynamics that predicts fibroblast alignment, and to determine local collagen synthesis rates according to a response curve derived from in vitro studies. We then used an agent-based model (ABM) of scar formation to integrate these cell-level responses and predict tissue-level collagen alignment and content. We compared our model predictions to experimental data from ten different studies. We found that a single set of cellular response curves can explain features of observed tendon healing across a wide array of reported experiments in rats–including the paradoxical finding that repairing transected tendon reverses the effect of loading on alignment–without fitting model parameters to any data from those experiments. The key to these successful predictions was simulating the specific loading and surgical protocols to predict tissue-level strains, which then guided cellular behaviors according to response curves based on in vitro experiments. Our model results provide a potential explanation for the highly variable responses to mechanical loading reported in the tendon healing literature and may be useful in guiding the design of future experiments and interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population genetic modeling can enhance Bayesian phylogenetic inference by providing a realistic prior on the distribution of branch lengths and times of common ancestry. The parameters of a population genetic model may also have intrinsic importance, and simultaneous estimation of a phylogeny and model parameters has enabled phylodynamic inference of population growth rates, reproduction numbers, and effective population size through time. Phylodynamic inference based on pathogen genetic sequence data has emerged as useful supplement to epidemic surveillance, however commonly-used mechanistic models that are typically fitted to non-genetic surveillance data are rarely fitted to pathogen genetic data due to a dearth of software tools, and the theory required to conduct such inference has been developed only recently. We present a framework for coalescent-based phylogenetic and phylodynamic inference which enables highly-flexible modeling of demographic and epidemiological processes. This approach builds upon previous structured coalescent approaches and includes enhancements for computational speed, accuracy, and stability. A flexible markup language is described for translating parametric demographic or epidemiological models into a structured coalescent model enabling simultaneous estimation of demographic or epidemiological parameters and time-scaled phylogenies. We demonstrate the utility of these approaches by fitting compartmental epidemiological models to Ebola virus and Influenza A virus sequence data, demonstrating how important features of these epidemics, such as the reproduction number and epidemic curves, can be gleaned from genetic data. These approaches are provided as an open-source package PhyDyn for the BEAST2 phylogenetics platform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present an open-source R package ‘meaRtools’ that provides a platform for analyzing neuronal networks recorded on Microelectrode Arrays (MEAs). Cultured neuronal networks monitored with MEAs are now being widely used to characterize in vitro models of neurological disorders and to evaluate pharmaceutical compounds. meaRtools provides core algorithms for MEA spike train analysis, feature extraction, statistical analysis and plotting of multiple MEA recordings with multiple genotypes and treatments. meaRtools functionality covers novel solutions for spike train analysis, including algorithms to assess electrode cross-correlation using the spike train tiling coefficient (STTC), mutual information, synchronized bursts and entropy within cultured wells. Also integrated is a solution to account for bursts variability originating from mixed-cell neuronal cultures. The package provides a statistical platform built specifically for MEA data that can combine multiple MEA recordings and compare extracted features between different genetic models or treatments. We demonstrate the utilization of meaRtools to successfully identify epilepsy-like phenotypes in neuronal networks from Celf4 knockout mice. The package is freely available under the GPL license (GPL> = 3) and is updated frequently on the CRAN web-server repository. The package, along with full documentation can be downloaded from: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Co-expression network analysis provides useful information for studying gene regulation in biological processes. Examining condition-specific patterns of co-expression can provide insights into the underlying cellular processes activated in a particular condition. One challenge in this type of analysis is that the sample sizes in each condition are usually small, making the statistical inference of co-expression patterns highly underpowered. A joint network construction that borrows information from related structures across conditions has the potential to improve the power of the analysis. One possible approach to constructing the co-expression network is to use the Gaussian graphical model. Though several methods are available for joint estimation of multiple graphical models, they do not fully account for the heterogeneity between samples and between co-expression patterns introduced by condition specificity. Here we develop the condition-adaptive fused graphical lasso (CFGL), a data-driven approach to incorporate condition specificity in the estimation of co-expression networks. We show that this method improves the accuracy with which networks are learned. The application of this method on a rat multi-tissue dataset and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) breast cancer dataset provides interesting biological insights. In both analyses, we identify numerous modules enriched for Gene Ontology functions and observe that the modules that are upregulated in a particular condition are often involved in condition-specific activities. Interestingly, we observe that the genes strongly associated with survival time in the TCGA dataset are less likely to be network hubs, suggesting that genes associated with cancer progression are likely to govern specific functions or execute final biological functions in pathways, rather than regulating a large number of biological processes. Additionally, we observed that the tumor-specific hub genes tend to have few shared edges with normal tissue, revealing tumor-specific regulatory mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clustering of genes and/or samples is a common task in gene expression analysis. The goals in clustering can vary, but an important scenario is that of finding biologically meaningful subtypes within the samples. This is an application that is particularly appropriate when there are large numbers of samples, as in many human disease studies. With the increasing popularity of single-cell transcriptome sequencing (RNA-Seq), many more controlled experiments on model organisms are similarly creating large gene expression datasets with the goal of detecting previously unknown heterogeneity within cells. It is common in the detection of novel subtypes to run many clustering algorithms, as well as rely on subsampling and ensemble methods to improve robustness. We introduce a Bioconductor R package, , that implements a general and flexible strategy we entitle Resampling-based Sequential Ensemble Clustering (RSEC). RSEC enables the user to easily create multiple, competing clusterings of the data based on different techniques and associated tuning parameters, including easy integration of resampling and sequential clustering, and then provides methods for consolidating the multiple clusterings into a final consensus clustering. The package is modular and allows the user to separately apply the individual components of the RSEC procedure, i.e., apply multiple clustering algorithms, create a consensus clustering or choose tuning parameters, and merge clusters. Additionally, provides a variety of visualization tools for the clustering process, as well as methods for the identification of possible cluster signatures or biomarkers. The R package is publicly available through the Bioconductor Project, with a detailed manual (vignette) as well as well documented help pages for each function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Isolation profoundly influences social behavior in all animals. In humans, isolation has serious effects on health and disease. Drosophila melanogaster is a powerful model to study small-scale, temporally-transient social behavior. However, longer-term analysis of large groups of flies is hampered by the lack of effective and reliable tools. We built a new imaging arena and improved the existing tracking algorithm to reliably follow a large number of flies simultaneously. Next, based on the automatic classification of touch and graph-based social network analysis, we designed an algorithm to quantify changes in the social network in response to prior social isolation. We observed that isolation significantly and swiftly enhanced individual and local social network parameters depicting near-neighbor relationships. We explored the genome-wide molecular correlates of these behavioral changes and found that whereas behavior changed throughout the six days of isolation, gene expression alterations occurred largely on day one. These changes occurred mostly in metabolic genes, and we verified the metabolic changes by showing an increase of lipid content in isolated flies. In summary, we describe a highly reliable tracking and analysis pipeline for large groups of flies that we use to unravel the behavioral, molecular and physiological impact of isolation on social network dynamics in Drosophila. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Functional-effective connectivity and network topology are nowadays key issues for studying brain physiological functions and pathologies. Inferring neuronal connectivity from electrophysiological recordings presents open challenges and unsolved problems. In this work, we present a cross-correlation based method for reliably estimating not only excitatory but also inhibitory links, by analyzing multi-unit spike activity from large-scale neuronal networks. The method is validated by means of realistic simulations of large-scale neuronal populations. New results related to functional connectivity estimation and network topology identification obtained by experimental electrophysiological recordings from high-density and large-scale (i.e., 4096 electrodes) microtransducer arrays coupled to in vitro neural populations are presented. Specifically, we show that: (i) functional inhibitory connections are accurately identified in in vitro cortical networks, providing that a reasonable firing rate and recording length are achieved; (ii) small-world topology, with scale-free and rich-club features are reliably obtained, on condition that a minimum number of active recording sites are available. The method and procedure can be directly extended and applied to in vivo multi-units brain activity recordings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, a growing number of biological research and scientific experiments have demonstrated that microRNA (miRNA) affects the development of human complex diseases. Discovering miRNA-disease associations plays an increasingly vital role in devising diagnostic and therapeutic tools for diseases. However, since uncovering associations via experimental methods is expensive and time-consuming, novel and effective computational methods for association prediction are in demand. In this study, we developed a computational model of Matrix Decomposition and Heterogeneous Graph Inference for miRNA-disease association prediction (MDHGI) to discover new miRNA-disease associations by integrating the predicted association probability obtained from matrix decomposition through sparse learning method, the miRNA functional similarity, the disease semantic similarity, and the Gaussian interaction profile kernel similarity for diseases and miRNAs into a heterogeneous network. Compared with previous computational models based on heterogeneous networks, our model took full advantage of matrix decomposition before the construction of heterogeneous network, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. MDHGI obtained AUCs of 0.8945 and 0.8240 in the global and the local leave-one-out cross validation, respectively. Moreover, the AUC of 0.8794+/-0.0021 in 5-fold cross validation confirmed its stability of predictive performance. In addition, to further evaluate the model's accuracy, we applied MDHGI to four important human cancers in three different kinds of case studies. In the first type, 98% (Esophageal Neoplasms) and 98% (Lymphoma) of top 50 predicted miRNAs have been confirmed by at least one of the two databases (dbDEMC and miR2Disease) or at least one experimental literature in PubMed. In the second type of case study, what made a difference was that we removed all known associations between the miRNAs and Lung Neoplasms before implementing MDHGI on Lung Neoplasms. As a result, 100% (Lung Neoplasms) of top 50 related miRNAs have been indexed by at least one of the three databases (dbDEMC, miR2Disease and HMDD V2.0) or at least one experimental literature in PubMed. Furthermore, we also tested our prediction method on the HMDD V1.0 database to prove the applicability of MDHGI to different datasets. The results showed that 50 out of top 50 miRNAs related with the breast neoplasms were validated by at least one of the three databases (HMDD V2.0, dbDEMC, and miR2Disease) or at least one experimental literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gene co-expression network analysis is extremely useful in interpreting a complex biological process. The recent droplet-based single-cell technology is able to generate much larger gene expression data routinely with thousands of samples and tens of thousands of genes. To analyze such a large-scale gene-gene network, remarkable progress has been made in rigorous statistical inference of high-dimensional Gaussian graphical model (GGM). These approaches provide a formal confidence interval or a p-value rather than only a single point estimator for conditional dependence of a gene pair and are more desirable for identifying reliable gene networks. To promote their widespread use, we herein introduce an extensive and efficient R package named SILGGM (tatistical nference of arge-scale aussian raphical odel) that includes four main approaches in statistical inference of high-dimensional GGM. Unlike the existing tools, SILGGM provides statistically efficient inference on both individual gene pair and whole-scale gene pairs. It has a novel and consistent false discovery rate (FDR) procedure in all four methodologies. Based on the user-friendly design, it provides outputs compatible with multiple platforms for interactive network visualization. Furthermore, comparisons in simulation illustrate that SILGGM can accelerate the existing MATLAB implementation to several orders of magnitudes and further improve the speed of the already very efficient R package FastGGM. Testing results from the simulated data confirm the validity of all the approaches in SILGGM even in a very large-scale setting with the number of variables or genes to a ten thousand level. We have also applied our package to a novel single-cell RNA-seq data set with pan T cells. The results show that the approaches in SILGGM significantly outperform the conventional ones in a biological sense. The package is freely available via CRAN at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and reliable forecasts of seasonal epidemics of infectious disease can assist in the design of countermeasures and increase public awareness and preparedness. This article describes two main contributions we made recently toward this goal: a novel approach to probabilistic modeling of surveillance time series based on “delta densities”, and an optimization scheme for combining output from multiple forecasting methods into an adaptively weighted ensemble. Delta densities describe the probability distribution of the change between one observation and the next, conditioned on available data; chaining together nonparametric estimates of these distributions yields a model for an entire trajectory. Corresponding distributional forecasts cover more observed events than alternatives that treat the whole season as a unit, and improve upon multiple evaluation metrics when extracting key targets of interest to public health officials. Adaptively weighted ensembles integrate the results of multiple forecasting methods, such as delta density, using weights that can change from situation to situation. We treat selection of optimal weightings across forecasting methods as a separate estimation task, and describe an estimation procedure based on optimizing cross-validation performance. We consider some details of the data generation process, including data revisions and holiday effects, both in the construction of these forecasting methods and when performing retrospective evaluation. The delta density method and an adaptively weighted ensemble of other forecasting methods each improve significantly on the next best ensemble component when applied separately, and achieve even better cross-validated performance when used in conjunction. We submitted real-time forecasts based on these contributions as part of CDC’s 2015/2016 FluSight Collaborative Comparison. Among the fourteen submissions that season, this system was ranked by CDC as the most accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, two-photon calcium imaging has become a standard tool to probe the function of neural circuits and to study computations in neuronal populations. However, the acquired signal is only an indirect measurement of neural activity due to the comparatively slow dynamics of fluorescent calcium indicators. Different algorithms for estimating spike rates from noisy calcium measurements have been proposed in the past, but it is an open question how far performance can be improved. Here, we report the results of the spikefinder challenge, launched to catalyze the development of new spike rate inference algorithms through crowd-sourcing. We present ten of the submitted algorithms which show improved performance compared to previously evaluated methods. Interestingly, the top-performing algorithms are based on a wide range of principles from deep neural networks to generative models, yet provide highly correlated estimates of the neural activity. The competition shows that benchmark challenges can drive algorithmic developments in neuroscience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowing brain connectivity is of great importance both in basic research and for clinical applications. We are proposing a method to infer directed connectivity from zero-lag covariances of neuronal activity recorded at multiple sites. This allows us to identify causal relations that are reflected in neuronal population activity. To derive our strategy, we assume a generic linear model of interacting continuous variables, the components of which represent the activity of local neuronal populations. The suggested method for inferring connectivity from recorded signals exploits the fact that the covariance matrix derived from the observed activity contains information about the existence, the direction and the sign of connections. Assuming a sparsely coupled network, we disambiguate the underlying causal structure via L1-minimization, which is known to prefer sparse solutions. In general, this method is suited to infer effective connectivity from resting state data of various types. We show that our method is applicable over a broad range of structural parameters regarding network size and connection probability of the network. We also explored parameters affecting its activity dynamics, like the eigenvalue spectrum. Also, based on the simulation of suitable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes to model BOLD dynamics, we show that with our method it is possible to estimate directed connectivity from zero-lag covariances derived from such signals. In this study, we consider measurement noise and unobserved nodes as additional confounding factors. Furthermore, we investigate the amount of data required for a reliable estimate. Additionally, we apply the proposed method on full-brain resting-state fast fMRI datasets. The resulting network exhibits a tendency for close-by areas being connected as well as inter-hemispheric connections between corresponding areas. In addition, we found that a surprisingly large fraction of more than one third of all identified connections were of inhibitory nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how neurons cooperate to integrate sensory inputs and guide behavior is a fundamental problem in neuroscience. A large body of methods have been developed to study neuronal firing at the single cell and population levels, generally seeking interpretability as well as predictivity. However, these methods are usually confronted with the lack of ground-truth necessary to validate the approach. Here, using neuronal data from the head-direction (HD) system, we present evidence demonstrating how gradient boosted trees, a non-linear and supervised Machine Learning tool, can learn the relationship between behavioral parameters and neuronal responses with high accuracy by optimizing the information rate. Interestingly, and unlike other classes of Machine Learning methods, the intrinsic structure of the trees can be interpreted in relation to behavior (e.g. to recover the tuning curves) or to study how neurons cooperate with their peers in the network. We show how the method, unlike linear analysis, reveals that the coordination in thalamo-cortical circuits is qualitatively the same during wakefulness and sleep, indicating a brain-state independent feed-forward circuit. Machine Learning tools thus open new avenues for benchmarking model-based characterization of spike trains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Single-trial analyses have the potential to uncover meaningful brain dynamics that are obscured when averaging across trials. However, low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) can impede the use of single-trial analyses and decoding methods. In this study, we investigate the applicability of a single-trial approach to decode stimulus modality from magnetoencephalographic (MEG) high frequency activity. In order to classify the auditory versus visual presentation of words, we combine beamformer source reconstruction with the random forest classification method. To enable group level inference, the classification is embedded in an across-subjects framework. We show that single-trial gamma SNR allows for good classification performance (accuracy across subjects: 66.44%). This implies that the characteristics of high frequency activity have a high consistency across trials and subjects. The random forest classifier assigned informational value to activity in both auditory and visual cortex with high spatial specificity. Across time, gamma power was most informative during stimulus presentation. Among all frequency bands, the 75 Hz 95 Hz band was the most informative frequency band in visual as well as in auditory areas. Especially in visual areas, a broad range of gamma frequencies (55 Hz 125 Hz) contributed to the successful classification. Thus, we demonstrate the feasibility of single-trial approaches for decoding the stimulus modality across subjects from high frequency activity and describe the discriminative gamma activity in time, frequency, and space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Passive acoustic sensing has emerged as a powerful tool for quantifying anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity, especially for echolocating bat species. To better assess bat population trends there is a critical need for accurate, reliable, and open source tools that allow the detection and classification of bat calls in large collections of audio recordings. The majority of existing tools are commercial or have focused on the species classification task, neglecting the important problem of first localizing echolocation calls in audio which is particularly problematic in noisy recordings. We developed a convolutional neural network based open-source pipeline for detecting ultrasonic, full-spectrum, search-phase calls produced by echolocating bats. Our deep learning algorithms were trained on full-spectrum ultrasonic audio collected along road-transects across Europe and labelled by citizen scientists from . When compared to other existing algorithms and commercial systems, we show significantly higher detection performance of search-phase echolocation calls with our test sets. As an example application, we ran our detection pipeline on bat monitoring data collected over five years from Jersey (UK), and compared results to a widely-used commercial system. Our detection pipeline can be used for the automatic detection and monitoring of bat populations, and further facilitates their use as indicator species on a large scale. Our proposed pipeline makes only a small number of bat specific design decisions, and with appropriate training data it could be applied to detecting other species in audio. A crucial novelty of our work is showing that with careful, non-trivial, design and implementation considerations, state-of-the-art deep learning methods can be used for accurate and efficient monitoring in audio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neural mass models (NMMs) are increasingly used to uncover the large-scale mechanisms of brain rhythms in health and disease. The dynamics of these models is dependent upon the choice of parameters, and therefore it is crucial to be able to understand how dynamics change when parameters are varied. Despite being considered low dimensional in comparison to micro-scale, neuronal network models, with regards to understanding the relationship between parameters and dynamics, NMMs are still prohibitively high dimensional for classical approaches such as numerical continuation. Therefore, we need alternative methods to characterise dynamics of NMMs in high dimensional parameter spaces. Here, we introduce a statistical framework that enables the efficient exploration of the relationship between model parameters and selected features of the simulated, emergent model dynamics of NMMs. We combine the classical machine learning approaches of trees and random forests to enable studying the effect that varying multiple parameters has on the dynamics of a model. The method proceeds by using simulations to transform the mathematical model into a database. This database is then used to partition parameter space with respect to dynamic features of interest, using random forests. This allows us to rapidly explore dynamics in high dimensional parameter space, capture the approximate location of qualitative transitions in dynamics and assess the relative importance of all parameters in the model in all dimensions simultaneously. We apply this method to a commonly used NMM in the context of transitions to seizure dynamics. We find that the inhibitory sub-system is most crucial for the generation of seizure dynamics, confirm and expand previous findings regarding the ratio of excitation and inhibition, and demonstrate that previously overlooked parameters can have a significant impact on model dynamics. We advocate the use of this method in future to constrain high dimensional parameter spaces enabling more efficient, person-specific, model calibration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological disorders affecting about 1% of the world population. For patients with focal seizures that cannot be treated with antiepileptic drugs, the common treatment is a surgical procedure for removal of the seizure onset zone (SOZ). In this work we introduce an algorithm for automatic localization of the seizure onset zone (SOZ) in epileptic patients based on electrocorticography (ECoG) recordings. The proposed algorithm builds upon the hypothesis that the abnormal excessive (or synchronous) neuronal activity in the brain leading to seizures starts in the SOZ and then spreads to other areas in the brain. Thus, when this abnormal activity starts, signals recorded at electrodes close to the SOZ should have a relatively large causal influence on the rest of the recorded signals. The SOZ localization is executed in two steps. First, the algorithm represents the set of electrodes using a directed graph in which nodes correspond to recording electrodes and the edges’ weights quantify the pair-wise causal influence between the recorded signals. Then, the algorithm infers the SOZ from the estimated graph using a variant of the PageRank algorithm followed by a novel post-processing phase. Inference results for 19 patients show a close match between the SOZ inferred by the proposed approach and the SOZ estimated by expert neurologists (success rate of 17 out of 19). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synchronization of neural oscillations as a mechanism of brain function is attracting increasing attention. Neural oscillation is a rhythmic neural activity that can be easily observed by noninvasive electroencephalography (EEG). Neural oscillations show the same frequency and cross-frequency synchronization for various cognitive and perceptual functions. However, it is unclear how this neural synchronization is achieved by a dynamical system. If neural oscillations are weakly coupled oscillators, the dynamics of neural synchronization can be described theoretically using a phase oscillator model. We propose an estimation method to identify the phase oscillator model from real data of cross-frequency synchronized activities. The proposed method can estimate the coupling function governing the properties of synchronization. Furthermore, we examine the reliability of the proposed method using time-series data obtained from numerical simulation and an electronic circuit experiment, and show that our method can estimate the coupling function correctly. Finally, we estimate the coupling function between EEG oscillation and the speech sound envelope, and discuss the validity of these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major force contributing to the emergence of novelty in nature is the presence of cooperative interactions, where two or more components of a system act in synergy, sometimes leading to higher-order, emergent phenomena. Within molecular evolution, the so called hypercycle defines the simplest model of an autocatalytic cycle, providing major theoretical insights on the evolution of cooperation in the early biosphere. These closed cooperative loops have also inspired our understanding of how catalytic loops appear in ecological systems. In both cases, hypercycle and ecological cooperative loops, the role played by space seems to be crucial for their stability and resilience against parasites. However, it is difficult to test these ideas in natural ecosystems, where time and spatial scales introduce considerable limitations. Here, we use engineered bacteria as a model system to a variety of environmental scenarios identifying trends that transcend the specific model system, such an enhanced genetic diversity in environments requiring mutualistic interactions. Interestingly, we show that improved environments can slow down mutualistic range expansions as a result of genetic drift effects preceding local resource depletion. Moreover, we show that a parasitic strain is excluded from the population during range expansions (which acknowledges a classical prediction). Nevertheless, environmental deterioration can reshape population interactions, this same strain becoming part of a three-species mutualistic web in scenarios in which the two-strain mutualism becomes non functional. The evolutionary and ecological implications for the design of synthetic ecosystems are outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to relatively high costs and labor required for experimental profiling of the full target space of chemical compounds, various machine learning models have been proposed as cost-effective means to advance this process in terms of predicting the most potent compound-target interactions for subsequent verification. However, most of the model predictions lack direct experimental validation in the laboratory, making their practical benefits for drug discovery or repurposing applications largely unknown. Here, we therefore introduce and carefully test a systematic computational-experimental framework for the prediction and pre-clinical verification of drug-target interactions using a well-established kernel-based regression algorithm as the prediction model. To evaluate its performance, we first predicted unmeasured binding affinities in a large-scale kinase inhibitor profiling study, and then experimentally tested 100 compound-kinase pairs. The relatively high correlation of 0.77 (p < 0.0001) between the predicted and measured bioactivities supports the potential of the model for filling the experimental gaps in existing compound-target interaction maps. Further, we subjected the model to a more challenging task of predicting target interactions for such a new candidate drug compound that lacks prior binding profile information. As a specific case study, we used tivozanib, an investigational VEGF receptor inhibitor with currently unknown off-target profile. Among 7 kinases with high predicted affinity, we experimentally validated 4 new off-targets of tivozanib, namely the Src-family kinases FRK and FYN A, the non-receptor tyrosine kinase ABL1, and the serine/threonine kinase SLK. Our sub-sequent experimental validation protocol effectively avoids any possible information leakage between the training and validation data, and therefore enables rigorous model validation for practical applications. These results demonstrate that the kernel-based modeling approach offers practical benefits for probing novel insights into the mode of action of investigational compounds, and for the identification of new target selectivities for drug repurposing applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Imaging and analyzing the locomotion behavior of small animals such as Drosophila larvae or C. elegans worms has become an integral subject of biological research. In the past we have introduced FIM, a novel imaging system feasible to extract high contrast images. This system in combination with the associated tracking software FIMTrack is already used by many groups all over the world. However, so far there has not been an in-depth discussion of the technical aspects. Here we elaborate on the implementation details of FIMTrack and give an in-depth explanation of the used algorithms. Among others, the software offers several tracking strategies to cover a wide range of different model organisms, locomotion types, and camera properties. Furthermore, the software facilitates stimuli-based analysis in combination with built-in manual tracking and correction functionalities. All features are integrated in an easy-to-use graphical user interface. To demonstrate the potential of FIMTrack we provide an evaluation of its accuracy using manually labeled data. The source code is available under the GNU GPLv3 at and pre-compiled binaries for Windows and Mac are available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People living in areas with active vector-borne transmission of Chagas disease have multiple contacts with its causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi. Reinfections by T. cruzi are possible at least in animal models leading to lower or even hardly detectable parasitaemia. In humans, although reinfections are thought to have major public health implications by increasing the risk of chronic manifestations of the disease, there is little quantitative knowledge about their frequency and the timing of parasite re-inoculation in the course of the disease. Here, we implemented stochastic agent-based models i) to estimate the rate of re-inoculation in humans and ii) to assess how frequent are reinfections during the acute and chronic stages of the disease according to alternative hypotheses on the adaptive immune response following a primary infection. By using a hybrid genetic algorithm, the models were fitted to epidemiological data of Argentinean rural villages where mixed infections by different genotypes of T. cruzi reach 56% in humans. To explain this percentage, the best model predicted 0.032 (0.008–0.042) annual reinfections per individual with 98.4% of them occurring in the chronic phase. In addition, the parasite escapes to the adaptive immune response mounted after the primary infection in at least 20% of the events of re-inoculation. With these low annual rates, the risks of reinfection during the typically long chronic stage of the disease stand around 14% (4%-18%) and 60% (21%-70%) after 5 and 30 years, with most individuals being re-infected 1–3 times overall. These low rates are better explained by the weak efficiency of the stercorarian mode of transmission than a highly efficient adaptive immune response. Those estimates are of particular interest for vaccine development and for our understanding of the higher risk of chronic disease manifestations suffered by infected people living in endemic areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deeper exploration of the brain’s vast synaptic networks will require new tools for high-throughput structural and molecular profiling of the diverse populations of synapses that compose those networks. Fluorescence microscopy (FM) and electron microscopy (EM) offer complementary advantages and disadvantages for single-synapse analysis. FM combines exquisite molecular discrimination capacities with high speed and low cost, but rigorous discrimination between synaptic and non-synaptic fluorescence signals is challenging. In contrast, EM remains the gold standard for reliable identification of a synapse, but offers only limited molecular discrimination and is slow and costly. To develop and test single-synapse image analysis methods, we have used datasets from conjugate array tomography (cAT), which provides voxel-conjugate FM and EM (annotated) images of the same individual synapses. We report a novel unsupervised probabilistic method for detection of synapses from multiplex FM (muxFM) image data, and evaluate this method both by comparison to EM gold standard annotated data and by examining its capacity to reproduce known important features of cortical synapse distributions. The proposed probabilistic model-based synapse detector accepts molecular-morphological synapse models as user queries, and delivers a volumetric map of the probability that each voxel represents part of a synapse. Taking human annotation of cAT EM data as ground truth, we show that our algorithm detects synapses from muxFM data alone as successfully as human annotators seeing only the muxFM data, and accurately reproduces known architectural features of cortical synapse distributions. This approach opens the door to data-driven discovery of new synapse types and their density. We suggest that our probabilistic synapse detector will also be useful for analysis of standard confocal and super-resolution FM images, where EM cross-validation is not practical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inferring epidemiological parameters such as the R0 from time-scaled phylogenies is a timely challenge. Most current approaches rely on likelihood functions, which raise specific issues that range from computing these functions to finding their maxima numerically. Here, we present a new regression-based Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach, which we base on a large variety of summary statistics intended to capture the information contained in the phylogeny and its corresponding lineage-through-time plot. The regression step involves the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method, which is a robust machine learning technique. It allows us to readily deal with the large number of summary statistics, while avoiding resorting to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. To compare our approach to existing ones, we simulated target trees under a variety of epidemiological models and settings, and inferred parameters of interest using the same priors. We found that, for large phylogenies, the accuracy of our regression-ABC is comparable to that of likelihood-based approaches involving birth-death processes implemented in BEAST2. Our approach even outperformed these when inferring the host population size with a Susceptible-Infected-Removed epidemiological model. It also clearly outperformed a recent kernel-ABC approach when assuming a Susceptible-Infected epidemiological model with two host types. Lastly, by re-analyzing data from the early stages of the recent Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone, we showed that regression-ABC provides more realistic estimates for the duration parameters (latency and infectiousness) than the likelihood-based method. Overall, ABC based on a large variety of summary statistics and a regression method able to perform variable selection and avoid overfitting is a promising approach to analyze large phylogenies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Point process generalized linear models (PP-GLMs) provide an important statistical framework for modeling spiking activity in single-neurons and neuronal networks. Stochastic stability is essential when sampling from these models, as done in computational neuroscience to analyze statistical properties of neuronal dynamics and in neuro-engineering to implement closed-loop applications. Here we show, however, that despite passing common goodness-of-fit tests, PP-GLMs estimated from data are often unstable, leading to divergent firing rates. The inclusion of absolute refractory periods is not a satisfactory solution since the activity then typically settles into unphysiological rates. To address these issues, we derive a framework for determining the existence and stability of fixed points of the expected conditional intensity function (CIF) for general PP-GLMs. Specifically, in nonlinear Hawkes PP-GLMs, the CIF is expressed as a function of the previous spike history and exogenous inputs. We use a mean-field quasi-renewal (QR) approximation that decomposes spike history effects into the contribution of the last spike and an average of the CIF over all spike histories prior to the last spike. Fixed points for stationary rates are derived as self-consistent solutions of integral equations. Bifurcation analysis and the number of fixed points predict that the original models can show stable, divergent, and metastable (fragile) dynamics. For fragile models, fluctuations of the single-neuron dynamics predict expected divergence times after which rates approach unphysiologically high values. This metric can be used to estimate the probability of rates to remain physiological for given time periods, e.g., for simulation purposes. We demonstrate the use of the stability framework using simulated single-neuron examples and neurophysiological recordings. Finally, we show how to adapt PP-GLM estimation procedures to guarantee model stability. Overall, our results provide a stability framework for data-driven PP-GLMs and shed new light on the stochastic dynamics of state-of-the-art statistical models of neuronal spiking activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mindboggle () is an open source brain morphometry platform that takes in preprocessed T1-weighted MRI data and outputs volume, surface, and tabular data containing label, feature, and shape information for further analysis. In this article, we document the software and demonstrate its use in studies of shape variation in healthy and diseased humans. The number of different shape measures and the size of the populations make this the largest and most detailed shape analysis of human brains ever conducted. Brain image morphometry shows great potential for providing much-needed biological markers for diagnosing, tracking, and predicting progression of mental health disorders. Very few software algorithms provide more than measures of volume and cortical thickness, while more subtle shape measures may provide more sensitive and specific biomarkers. Mindboggle computes a variety of (primarily surface-based) shapes: area, volume, thickness, curvature, depth, Laplace-Beltrami spectra, Zernike moments, etc. We evaluate Mindboggle’s algorithms using the largest set of manually labeled, publicly available brain images in the world and compare them against state-of-the-art algorithms where they exist. All data, code, and results of these evaluations are publicly available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite significant efforts and remarkable progress, the inference of signaling networks from experimental data remains very challenging. The problem is particularly difficult when the objective is to obtain a dynamic model capable of predicting the effect of novel perturbations not considered during model training. The problem is ill-posed due to the nonlinear nature of these systems, the fact that only a fraction of the involved proteins and their post-translational modifications can be measured, and limitations on the technologies used for growing cells in vitro, perturbing them, and measuring their variations. As a consequence, there is a pervasive lack of identifiability. To overcome these issues, we present a methodology called SELDOM (enSEmbLe of Dynamic lOgic-based Models), which builds an ensemble of logic-based dynamic models, trains them to experimental data, and combines their individual simulations into an ensemble prediction. It also includes a model reduction step to prune spurious interactions and mitigate overfitting. SELDOM is a data-driven method, in the sense that it does not require any prior knowledge of the system: the interaction networks that act as scaffolds for the dynamic models are inferred from data using mutual information. We have tested SELDOM on a number of experimental and in silico signal transduction case-studies, including the recent HPN-DREAM breast cancer challenge. We found that its performance is highly competitive compared to state-of-the-art methods for the purpose of recovering network topology. More importantly, the utility of SELDOM goes beyond basic network inference (i.e. uncovering static interaction networks): it builds dynamic (based on ordinary differential equation) models, which can be used for mechanistic interpretations and reliable dynamic predictions in new experimental conditions (i.e. not used in the training). For this task, SELDOM’s ensemble prediction is not only consistently better than predictions from individual models, but also often outperforms the state of the art represented by the methods used in the HPN-DREAM challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A thermodynamic model of thermoregulatory huddling interactions between endotherms is developed. The model is presented as a Monte Carlo algorithm in which animals are iteratively exchanged between groups, with a probability of exchanging groups defined in terms of the temperature of the environment and the body temperatures of the animals. The temperature-dependent exchange of animals between groups is shown to reproduce a second-order critical phase transition, i.e., a smooth switch to huddling when the environment gets colder, as measured in recent experiments. A peak in the rate at which group sizes change, referred to as pup flow, is predicted at the critical temperature of the phase transition, consistent with a thermodynamic description of huddling, and with a description of the huddle as a self-organising system. The model was subjected to a simple evolutionary procedure, by iteratively substituting the physiologies of individuals that fail to balance the costs of thermoregulation (by huddling in groups) with the costs of thermogenesis (by contributing heat). The resulting tension between cooperative and competitive interactions was found to generate a phenomenon called self-organised criticality, as evidenced by the emergence of avalanches in fitness that propagate across many generations. The emergence of avalanches reveals how huddling can introduce correlations in fitness between individuals and thereby constrain evolutionary dynamics. Finally, a full agent-based model of huddling interactions is also shown to generate criticality when subjected to the same evolutionary pressures. The agent-based model is related to the Monte Carlo model in the way that a Vicsek model is related to an Ising model in statistical physics. Huddling therefore presents an opportunity to use thermodynamic theory to study an emergent adaptive animal behaviour. In more general terms, huddling is proposed as an ideal system for investigating the interaction between self-organisation and natural selection empirically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Network-based infectious disease models have been highly effective in elucidating the role of contact structure in the spread of infection. As such, pair- and neighbourhood-based approximation models have played a key role in linking findings from network simulations to standard (random-mixing) results. Recently, for SIR-type infections (that produce one epidemic in a closed population) on locally tree-like networks, these approximations have been shown to be exact. However, network models are ideally suited for Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) due to the greater level of detail available for sexual contact networks, and these diseases often possess SIS-type dynamics. Here, we consider the accuracy of three systematic approximations that can be applied to arbitrary disease dynamics, including SIS behaviour. We focus in particular on low degree networks, in which the small number of neighbours causes build-up of local correlations between the state of adjacent nodes that are challenging to capture. By examining how and when these approximation models converge to simulation results, we generate insights into the role of network structure in the infection dynamics of SIS-type infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insects that feed by ingesting plant and animal fluids cause devastating damage to humans, livestock, and agriculture worldwide, primarily by transmitting pathogens of plants and animals. The feeding processes required for successful pathogen transmission by sucking insects can be recorded by monitoring voltage changes across an insect-food source feeding circuit. The output from such monitoring has traditionally been examined manually, a slow and onerous process. We taught a computer program to automatically classify previously described insect feeding patterns involved in transmission of the pathogen causing citrus greening disease. We also show how such analysis contributes to discovery of previously unrecognized feeding states and can be used to characterize plant resistance mechanisms. This advance greatly reduces the time and effort required to analyze insect feeding, and should facilitate developing, screening, and testing of novel intervention strategies to disrupt pathogen transmission affecting agriculture, livestock and human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brain computation relies on effective interactions between ensembles of neurons. In neuroimaging, measures of functional connectivity (FC) aim at statistically quantifying such interactions, often to study normal or pathological cognition. Their capacity to reflect a meaningful variety of patterns as expected from neural computation in relation to cognitive processes remains debated. The relative weights of time-varying local neurophysiological dynamics versus static structural connectivity (SC) in the generation of FC as measured remains unsettled. Empirical evidence features mixed results: from little to significant FC variability and correlation with cognitive functions, within and between participants. We used a unified approach combining multivariate analysis, bootstrap and computational modeling to characterize the potential variety of patterns of FC and SC both qualitatively and quantitatively. Empirical data and simulations from generative models with different dynamical behaviors demonstrated, largely irrespective of FC metrics, that a linear subspace with dimension one or two could explain much of the variability across patterns of FC. On the contrary, the variability across BOLD time-courses could not be reduced to such a small subspace. FC appeared to strongly reflect SC and to be partly governed by a Gaussian process. The main differences between simulated and empirical data related to limitations of DWI-based SC estimation (and SC itself could then be estimated from FC). Above and beyond the limited dynamical range of the BOLD signal itself, measures of FC may offer a degenerate representation of brain interactions, with limited access to the underlying complexity. They feature an invariant common core, reflecting the channel capacity of the network as conditioned by SC, with a limited, though perhaps meaningful residual variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate if phase-locking of fast oscillatory activity relies on the anatomical skeleton and if simple computational models informed by structural connectivity can help further to explain missing links in the structure-function relationship. We use diffusion tensor imaging data and alpha band-limited EEG signal recorded in a group of healthy individuals. Our results show that about 23.4% of the variance in empirical networks of resting-state functional connectivity is explained by the underlying white matter architecture. Simulating functional connectivity using a simple computational model based on the structural connectivity can increase the match to 45.4%. In a second step, we use our modeling framework to explore several technical alternatives along the modeling path. First, we find that an augmentation of homotopic connections in the structural connectivity matrix improves the link to functional connectivity while a correction for fiber distance slightly decreases the performance of the model. Second, a more complex computational model based on Kuramoto oscillators leads to a slight improvement of the model fit. Third, we show that the comparison of modeled and empirical functional connectivity at source level is much more specific for the underlying structural connectivity. However, different source reconstruction algorithms gave comparable results. Of note, as the fourth finding, the model fit was much better if zero-phase lag components were preserved in the empirical functional connectome, indicating a considerable amount of functionally relevant synchrony taking place with near zero or zero-phase lag. The combination of the best performing alternatives at each stage in the pipeline results in a model that explains 54.4% of the variance in the empirical EEG functional connectivity. Our study shows that large-scale brain circuits of fast neural network synchrony strongly rely upon the structural connectome and simple computational models of neural activity can explain missing links in the structure-function relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]