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Type 2 diabetes leads to premature death and reduced quality of life for 8% of Americans. Nutrition management is critical to maintaining glycemic control, yet it is difficult to achieve due to the high individual differences in glycemic response to nutrition. Anticipating glycemic impact of different meals can be challenging not only for individuals with diabetes, but also for expert diabetes educators. Personalized computational models that can accurately forecast an impact of a given meal on an individual’s blood glucose levels can serve as the engine for a new generation of decision support tools for individuals with diabetes. However, to be useful in practice, these computational engines need to generate accurate forecasts based on limited datasets consistent with typical self-monitoring practices of individuals with type 2 diabetes. This paper uses three forecasting machines: (i) data assimilation, a technique borrowed from atmospheric physics and engineering that uses Bayesian modeling to infuse data with human knowledge represented in a mechanistic model, to generate real-time, personalized, adaptable glucose forecasts; (ii) model averaging of data assimilation output; and (iii) dynamical Gaussian process model regression. The proposed data assimilation machine, the primary focus of the paper, uses a modified dual unscented Kalman filter to estimate states and parameters, personalizing the mechanistic models. Model selection is used to make a personalized model selection for the individual and their measurement characteristics. The data assimilation forecasts are empirically evaluated against actual postprandial glucose measurements captured by individuals with type 2 diabetes, and against predictions generated by experienced diabetes educators after reviewing a set of historical nutritional records and glucose measurements for the same individual. The evaluation suggests that the data assimilation forecasts compare well with specific glucose measurements and match or exceed in accuracy expert forecasts. We conclude by examining ways to present predictions as forecast-derived range quantities and evaluate the comparative advantages of these ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The collection of immunoglobulin genes in an individual’s germline, which gives rise to B cell receptors via recombination, is known to vary significantly across individuals. In humans, for example, each individual has only a fraction of the several hundred known V alleles. Furthermore, the currently-accepted set of known V alleles is both incomplete (particularly for non-European samples), and contains a significant number of spurious alleles. The resulting uncertainty as to which immunoglobulin alleles are present in any given sample results in inaccurate B cell receptor sequence annotations, and in particular inaccurate inferred naive ancestors. In this paper we first show that the currently widespread practice of aligning each sequence to its closest match in the full set of IMGT alleles results in a very large number of spurious alleles that are not in the sample’s true set of germline V alleles. We then describe a new method for inferring each individual’s germline gene set from deep sequencing data, and show that it improves upon existing methods by making a detailed comparison on a variety of simulated and real data samples. This new method has been integrated into the partis annotation and clonal family inference package, available at , and is run by default without affecting overall run time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conduction of electrical signals through cardiac tissue is essential for maintaining the function of the heart, and conduction abnormalities are known to potentially lead to life-threatening arrhythmias. The properties of cardiac conduction have therefore been the topic of intense study for decades, but a number of questions related to the mechanisms of conduction still remain unresolved. In this paper, we demonstrate how the so-called EMI model may be used to study some of these open questions. In the EMI model, the extracellular space, the cell membrane, the intracellular space and the cell connections are all represented as separate parts of the computational domain, and the model therefore allows for study of local properties that are hard to represent in the classical homogenized bidomain or monodomain models commonly used to study cardiac conduction. We conclude that a non-uniform sodium channel distribution increases the conduction velocity and decreases the time delays over gap junctions of reduced coupling in the EMI model simulations. We also present a theoretical optimal cell length with respect to conduction velocity and consider the possibility of ephaptic coupling (i.e. cell-to-cell coupling through the extracellular potential) acting as an alternative or supporting mechanism to gap junction coupling. We conclude that for a non-uniform distribution of sodium channels and a sufficiently small intercellular distance, ephaptic coupling can influence the dynamics of the sodium channels and potentially provide cell-to-cell coupling when the gap junction connection is absent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systems biology models are used to understand complex biological and physiological systems. Interpretation of these models is an important part of developing this understanding. These models are often fit to experimental data in order to understand how the system has produced various phenomena or behaviour that are seen in the data. In this paper, we have outlined a framework that can be used to perform Bayesian analysis of complex systems biology models. In particular, we have focussed on analysing a systems biology of the brain using both simulated and measured data. By using a combination of sensitivity analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, we have shown that it is possible to obtain distributions of parameters that can better guard against misinterpretation of results, as compared to a maximum likelihood estimate based approach. This is done through analysis of simulated and experimental data. NIRS measurements were simulated using the same simulated systemic input data for the model in a ‘healthy’ and ‘impaired’ state. By analysing both of these datasets, we show that different parameter spaces can be distinguished and compared between different physiological states or conditions. Finally, we analyse experimental data using the new Bayesian framework and the previous maximum likelihood estimate approach, showing that the Bayesian approach provides a more complete understanding of the parameter space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the mammalian nervous system, neurotrophins control synaptic plasticity, neuromodulation, and neuronal growth. The neurotrophin Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) is known to promote structural and functional synaptic plasticity in the hippocampus, the cerebral cortex, and many other brain areas. In recent years, a wealth of data has been accumulated revealing the paramount importance of BDNF for neuronal function. BDNF signaling gives rise to multiple complex signaling pathways that mediate neuronal survival and differentiation during development, and formation of new memories. These different roles of BDNF for neuronal function have essential consequences if BDNF signaling in the brain is reduced. Thus, BDNF knock-out mice or mice that are deficient in BDNF receptor signaling via TrkB and p75 receptors show deficits in neuronal development, synaptic plasticity, and memory formation. Accordingly, BDNF signaling dysfunctions are associated with many neurological and neurodegenerative conditions including Alzheimer's and Huntington's disease. However, despite the widespread implications of BDNF-dependent signaling in synaptic plasticity in healthy and pathological conditions, the interplay of the involved different biochemical pathways at the synaptic level remained mostly unknown. In this paper, we investigated the role of BDNF/TrkB signaling in spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) in rodent hippocampus CA1 pyramidal cells, by implementing the first subcellular model of BDNF regulated, spike timing-dependent long-term potentiation (t-LTP). The model is based on previously published experimental findings on STDP and accounts for the observed magnitude, time course, stimulation pattern and BDNF-dependence of t-LTP. It allows interpreting the main experimental findings concerning specific biomolecular processes, and it can be expanded to take into account more detailed biochemical reactions. The results point out a few predictions on how to enhance LTP induction in such a way to rescue or improve cognitive functions under pathological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian adaptive dual controller (ADC) for autonomously programming deep brain stimulation devices. We evaluated the Bayesian ADC’s performance in the context of reducing beta power in a computational model of Parkinson’s disease, in which it was tasked with finding the set of stimulation parameters which optimally reduced beta power as fast as possible. Here, the Bayesian ADC has dual goals: (a) to minimize beta power by exploiting the best parameters found so far, and (b) to explore the space to find better parameters, thus allowing for better control in the future. The Bayesian ADC is composed of two parts: an inner parameterized feedback stimulator and an outer parameter adjustment loop. The inner loop operates on a short time scale, delivering stimulus based upon the phase and power of the beta oscillation. The outer loop operates on a long time scale, observing the effects of the stimulation parameters and using Bayesian optimization to intelligently select new parameters to minimize the beta power. We show that the Bayesian ADC can efficiently optimize stimulation parameters, and is superior to other optimization algorithms. The Bayesian ADC provides a robust and general framework for tuning stimulation parameters, can be adapted to use any feedback signal, and is applicable across diseases and stimulator designs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

B cells develop high affinity receptors during the course of affinity maturation, a cyclic process of mutation and selection. At the end of affinity maturation, a number of cells sharing the same ancestor (i.e. in the same “clonal family”) are released from the germinal center; their amino acid frequency profile reflects the allowed and disallowed substitutions at each position. These clonal-family-specific frequency profiles, called “substitution profiles”, are useful for studying the course of affinity maturation as well as for antibody engineering purposes. However, most often only a single sequence is recovered from each clonal family in a sequencing experiment, making it impossible to construct a clonal-family-specific substitution profile. Given the public release of many high-quality large B cell receptor datasets, one may ask whether it is possible to use such data in a prediction model for clonal-family-specific substitution profiles. In this paper, we present the method “Substitution Profiles Using Related Families” (SPURF), a penalized tensor regression framework that integrates information from a rich assemblage of datasets to predict the clonal-family-specific substitution profile for any single input sequence. Using this framework, we show that substitution profiles from similar clonal families can be leveraged together with simulated substitution profiles and germline gene sequence information to improve prediction. We fit this model on a large public dataset and validate the robustness of our approach on two external datasets. Furthermore, we provide a command-line tool in an open-source software package () implementing these ideas and providing easy prediction using our pre-fit models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A biophysical model that captures molecular homeostatic control of ions at the perisynaptic cradle (PsC) is of fundamental importance for understanding the interplay between astroglial and neuronal compartments. In this paper, we develop a multi-compartmental mathematical model which proposes a novel mechanism whereby the flow of cations in thin processes is restricted due to negatively charged membrane lipids which result in the formation of deep potential wells near the dipole heads. These wells restrict the flow of cations to “hopping” between adjacent wells as they transverse the process, and this surface retention of cations will be shown to give rise to the formation of potassium (K+) and sodium (Na+) microdomains at the PsC. We further propose that a K+ microdomain formed at the PsC, provides the driving force for the return of K+ to the extracellular space for uptake by the neurone, thereby preventing K+ undershoot. A slow decay of Na+ was also observed in our simulation after a period of glutamate stimulation which is in strong agreement with experimental observations. The pathological implications of microdomain formation during neuronal excitation are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simultaneous changes in ion concentrations, glutamate, and cell volume together with exchange of matter between cell network and vasculature are ubiquitous in numerous brain pathologies. A complete understanding of pathological conditions as well as normal brain function, therefore, hinges on elucidating the molecular and cellular pathways involved in these mostly interdependent variations. In this paper, we develop the first computational framework that combines the Hodgkin–Huxley type spiking dynamics, dynamic ion concentrations and glutamate homeostasis, neuronal and astroglial volume changes, and ion exchange with vasculature into a comprehensive model to elucidate the role of glutamate uptake in the dynamics of spreading depolarization (SD)—the electrophysiological event underlying numerous pathologies including migraine, ischemic stroke, aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, intracerebral hematoma, and trauma. We are particularly interested in investigating the role of glutamate in the duration and termination of SD caused by K+ perfusion and oxygen-glucose deprivation. Our results demonstrate that glutamate signaling plays a key role in the dynamics of SD, and that impaired glutamate uptake leads to recovery failure of neurons from SD. We confirm predictions from our model experimentally by showing that inhibiting astrocytic glutamate uptake using TFB-TBOA nearly quadruples the duration of SD in layers 2-3 of visual cortical slices from juvenile rats. The model equations are either derived purely from first physical principles of electroneutrality, osmosis, and conservation of particles or a combination of these principles and known physiological facts. Accordingly, we claim that our approach can be used as a future guide to investigate the role of glutamate, ion concentrations, and dynamics cell volume in other brain pathologies and normal brain function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Learning the reliability of different sources of rewards is critical for making optimal choices. However, despite the existence of detailed theory describing how the expected reward is learned in the basal ganglia, it is not known how reward uncertainty is estimated in these circuits. This paper presents a class of models that encode both the mean reward and the spread of the rewards, the former in the difference between the synaptic weights of D1 and D2 neurons, and the latter in their sum. In the models, the tendency to seek (or avoid) options with variable reward can be controlled by increasing (or decreasing) the tonic level of dopamine. The models are consistent with the physiology of and synaptic plasticity in the basal ganglia, they explain the effects of dopaminergic manipulations on choices involving risks, and they make multiple experimental predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial physiology exhibits growth laws that relate the macromolecular composition of the cell to the growth rate. Recent work has shown that these empirical regularities can be derived from coarse-grained models of resource allocation. While these studies focus on steady-state growth, such conditions are rarely found in natural habitats, where microorganisms are continually challenged by environmental fluctuations. The aim of this paper is to extend the study of microbial growth strategies to dynamical environments, using a self-replicator model. We formulate dynamical growth maximization as an optimal control problem that can be solved using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. We compare this theoretical gold standard with different possible implementations of growth control in bacterial cells. We find that simple control strategies enabling growth-rate maximization at steady state are suboptimal for transitions from one growth regime to another, for example when shifting bacterial cells to a medium supporting a higher growth rate. A near-optimal control strategy in dynamical conditions is shown to require information on several, rather than a single physiological variable. Interestingly, this strategy has structural analogies with the regulation of ribosomal protein synthesis by ppGpp in the enterobacterium Escherichia coli. It involves sensing a mismatch between precursor and ribosome concentrations, as well as the adjustment of ribosome synthesis in a switch-like manner. Our results show how the capability of regulatory systems to integrate information about several physiological variables is critical for optimizing growth in a changing environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce a fully flexible coarse-grained model of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies parametrized directly on cryo-EM data and simulate the binding dynamics of many IgGs to antigens adsorbed on a surface at increasing densities. Moreover, we work out a theoretical model that allows to explain all the features observed in the simulations. Our combined computational and theoretical framework is in excellent agreement with surface-plasmon resonance data and allows us to establish a number of important results. (i) Internal flexibility is key to maximize bivalent binding, flexible IgGs being able to explore the surface with their second arm in search for an available hapten. This is made clear by the strongly reduced ability to bind with both arms displayed by artificial IgGs designed to rigidly keep a prescribed shape. (ii) The large size of IgGs is instrumental to keep neighboring molecules at a certain distance (surface repulsion), which essentially makes antigens within reach of the second Fab always unoccupied on average. (iii) One needs to account independently for the thermodynamic and geometric factors that regulate the binding equilibrium. The key geometrical parameters, besides excluded-volume repulsion, describe the screening of free haptens by neighboring bound antibodies. We prove that the thermodynamic parameters govern the low-antigen-concentration regime, while the surface screening and repulsion only affect the binding at high hapten densities. Importantly, we prove that screening effects are concealed in relative measures, such as the fraction of bivalently bound antibodies. Overall, our model provides a valuable, accurate theoretical paradigm beyond existing frameworks to interpret experimental profiles of antibodies binding to multi-valent surfaces of different sorts in many contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In pharmaceutical sciences, a crucial step of the drug discovery process is the identification of drug-target interactions. However, only a small portion of the drug-target interactions have been experimentally validated, as the experimental validation is laborious and costly. To improve the drug discovery efficiency, there is a great need for the development of accurate computational approaches that can predict potential drug-target interactions to direct the experimental verification. In this paper, we propose a novel drug-target interaction prediction algorithm, namely neighborhood regularized logistic matrix factorization (NRLMF). Specifically, the proposed NRLMF method focuses on modeling the probability that a drug would interact with a target by logistic matrix factorization, where the properties of drugs and targets are represented by drug-specific and target-specific latent vectors, respectively. Moreover, NRLMF assigns higher importance levels to positive observations (i.e., the observed interacting drug-target pairs) than negative observations (i.e., the unknown pairs). Because the positive observations are already experimentally verified, they are usually more trustworthy. Furthermore, the local structure of the drug-target interaction data has also been exploited via neighborhood regularization to achieve better prediction accuracy. We conducted extensive experiments over four benchmark datasets, and NRLMF demonstrated its effectiveness compared with five state-of-the-art approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]