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In silico clinical trials (ISCTs) are an emerging method in modeling and simulation where medical interventions are evaluated using computational models of patients. ISCTs have the potential to provide cost-effective, time-efficient, and ethically favorable alternatives for evaluating the safety and effectiveness of medical devices. However, ensuring the credibility of ISCT results is a significant challenge. This paper aims to identify unique considerations for assessing the credibility of ISCTs and proposes an ISCT credibility assessment workflow based on recently published model assessment frameworks. First, we review various ISCTs described in the literature, carefully selected to showcase the range of methodological options available. These studies cover a wide variety of devices, reasons for conducting ISCTs, patient model generation approaches including subject-specific versus 'synthetic' virtual patients, complexity levels of devices and patient models, incorporation of clinician or clinical outcome models, and methods for integrating ISCT results with real-world clinical trials. We next discuss how verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification apply to ISCTs, considering the range of ISCT approaches identified. Based on our analysis, we then present a hierarchical workflow for assessing ISCT credibility, using a general credibility assessment framework recently published by the FDA's Center for Devices and Radiological Health. Overall, this work aims to promote standardization in ISCTs and contribute to the wider adoption and acceptance of ISCTs as a reliable tool for evaluating medical devices., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)

Capillary plexus cultivation is crucial in tissue engineering and regenerative medicine. Theoretical simulations have been conducted to supplement the expensive experimental works. However, the mechanisms connecting mechanical and chemical stimuli remained undefined, and the functions of the different VEGF forms in the culture environment were still unclear. In this paper, we developed a hybrid model for simulating short-term in vitro capillary incubations. We used the Cellular Potts model to predict individual cell migration, morphology change, and continuum mechanics to quantify biogel deformation and VEGF transport dynamics. By bridging the mechanical regulation and chemical stimulation in the model, the results showed good agreement between the predicted network topology and experiments, in which elongated cells connected, forming the network cords and round cells gathered, creating cobblestone-like aggregates. The results revealed that the capillary-like networks could develop in high integrity only when the mechanical and chemical couplings worked adequately, with the cell morphology and haptotaxis driven by the soluble and bound forms of VEGF, respectively, functioning simultaneously., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Chiang, Chung. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Dynamical system models typically involve numerous input parameters whose "effects" and orthogonality need to be quantified through sensitivity analysis, to identify inputs contributing the greatest uncertainty. Whilst prior art has compared total-order estimators' role in recovering "true" effects, assessing their ability to recover robust parameter orthogonality for use in identifiability metrics has not been investigated. In this paper, we perform: (i) an assessment using a different class of numerical models representing the cardiovascular system, (ii) a wider evaluation of sampling methodologies and their interactions with estimators, (iii) an investigation of the consequences of permuting estimators and sampling methodologies on input parameter orthogonality, (iv) a study of sample convergence through resampling, and (v) an assessment of whether positive outcomes are sustained when model input dimensionality increases. Our results indicate that Jansen or Janon estimators display efficient convergence with minimum uncertainty when coupled with Sobol and the lattice rule sampling methods, making them prime choices for calculating parameter orthogonality and influence. This study reveals that global sensitivity analysis is convergence driven. Unconverged indices are subject to error and therefore the true influence or orthogonality of the input parameters are not recovered. This investigation importantly clarifies the interactions of the estimator and the sampling methodology by reducing the associated ambiguities, defining novel practices for modelling in the life sciences., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Saxton et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The sinoatrial node (SAN), the primary pacemaker of the heart, is responsible for the initiation and robust regulation of sinus rhythm. 3D mapping studies of the ex-vivo human heart suggested that the robust regulation of sinus rhythm relies on specialized fibrotically-insulated pacemaker compartments (head, center and tail) with heterogeneous expressions of key ion channels and receptors. They also revealed up to five sinoatrial conduction pathways (SACPs), which electrically connect the SAN with neighboring right atrium (RA). To elucidate the role of these structural-molecular factors in the functional robustness of human SAN, we developed comprehensive biophysical computer models of the SAN based on 3D structural, functional and molecular mapping of ex-vivo human hearts. Our key finding is that the electrical insulation of the SAN except SACPs, the heterogeneous expression of If, INa currents and adenosine A1 receptors (A1R) across SAN pacemaker-conduction compartments are required to experimentally reproduce observed SAN activation patterns and important phenomena such as shifts of the leading pacemaker and preferential SACP. In particular, we found that the insulating border between the SAN and RA, is required for robust SAN function and protection from SAN arrest during adenosine challenge. The heterogeneity in the expression of A1R within the human SAN compartments underlies the direction of pacemaker shift and preferential SACPs in the presence of adenosine. Alterations of INa current and fibrotic remodelling in SACPs can significantly modulate SAN conduction and shift the preferential SACP/exit from SAN. Finally, we show that disease-induced fibrotic remodeling, INa suppression or increased adenosine make the human SAN vulnerable to pacing-induced exit blocks and reentrant arrhythmia. In summary, our computer model recapitulates the structural and functional features of the human SAN and can be a valuable tool for investigating mechanisms of SAN automaticity and conduction as well as SAN arrhythmia mechanisms under different pathophysiological conditions. Author summary: The human heart is driven and modulated by the sinoatrial node (SAN), our body's natural pacemaker. Recent studies using explanted human hearts discovered that to regulate heart rhythm robustly, the SAN has three pacemaker compartments–SAN head, center and tail characterized by heterogeneous expression of key ion channels and receptors. In addition, the fibrotically-insulated SAN electrically connects with the right atrium (RA) through up to five sinoatrial conduction pathways (SACPs). Due to the complexities of the human 3D structure and limited functional data on SAN conduction, the specific role of the SAN insulation/border, distinct SACPs and intranodal pacemaker molecular heterogeneity in regulating sinus rhythm in health and diseased hearts remain debatable. The goals of this study were to define the key factors influencing human SAN pacemaking function and SAN dysfunction by developing and utilizing computer models of the human SAN. This study presents the first comprehensive biophysical computer model of the human SAN complex based on direct molecular, structural and functional studies in the ex-vivo human heart. Our data show that the computer models can closely replicate pacemaking, SAN activation patterns and exit sites/earliest atrial activation through preferential SACPs, as well as physiological changes including the shift of the leading pacemaker in the presence of adenosine reported in the human heart ex-vivo. More importantly, the novel computer modeling simulation results illustrate the crucial role of the structural and electrical heterogeneity of the human SAN in pacemaking and conduction. Our human-specific SAN computer model represents a valuable tool for investigating SAN automaticity, conduction and arrhythmia mechanisms under normal and various disease conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans have an astonishing ability to extract hidden information from the movement of others. In previous work, subjects observed the motion of a simulated stick-figure, two-link planar arm and estimated its stiffness. Fundamentally, stiffness is the relation between force and displacement. Given that subjects were unable to physically interact with the simulated arm, they were forced to make their estimates solely based on observed kinematic information. Remarkably, subjects were able to correctly correlate their stiffness estimates with changes in the simulated stiffness, despite the lack of force information. We hypothesized that subjects were only able to do this because the controller used to produce the simulated arm's movement, composed of oscillatory motions driving mechanical impedances, resembled the controller humans use to produce their own movement. However, it is still unknown what motion features subjects used to estimate stiffness. Human motion exhibits systematic velocity-curvature patterns, and it has previously been shown that these patterns play an important role in perceiving and interpreting motion. Thus, we hypothesized that manipulating the velocity profile should affect subjects' ability to estimate stiffness. To test this, we changed the velocity profile of the simulated two-link planar arm while keeping the simulated joint paths the same. Even with manipulated velocity signals, subjects were still able to estimate changes in simulated joint stiffness. However, when subjects were shown the same simulated path with different velocity profiles, they perceived motions that followed a veridical velocity profile to be less stiff than that of a non-veridical profile. These results suggest that path information (displacement) predominates over temporal information (velocity) when humans use visual observation to estimate stiffness. Author summary: Stiffness of the arms or legs, the force evoked by displacement, plays an important role in managing physical interaction with objects in the world. Measuring stiffness fundamentally requires physical contact. Nevertheless, previous study showed that humans have a remarkable ability to estimate stiffness solely from visual observation of a computer simulation, with no physical contact. The present study extended that work and found that this ability was robust. In particular, the ability to estimate simulated stiffness was largely unaffected by changing the time course of simulated motion. This was surprising given the extensive prior research reporting that distorting velocity patterns influences motion perception. The results presented in this paper indicate that geometric information (path) predominates over temporal information (velocity) in the perception of stiffness. Given the highly-cited relationship between motor action and perception, it also suggests that the structure of the motor control system we used in the simulations is a reasonable approximation of the neural motor controller. This work provides insight into humans' representation of motor behavior and how humans interpret and learn from the motor actions of others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic models of biomolecular reaction networks are commonly employed in systems and synthetic biology to study the effects of stochastic fluctuations emanating from reactions involving species with low copy-numbers. For such models, the Kolmogorov's forward equation is called the chemical master equation (CME), and it is a fundamental system of linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that describes the evolution of the probability distribution of the random state-vector representing the copy-numbers of all the reacting species. The size of this system is given by the number of states that are accessible by the chemical system, and for most examples of interest this number is either very large or infinite. Moreover, approximations that reduce the size of the system by retaining only a finite number of important chemical states (e.g. those with non-negligible probability) result in high-dimensional ODE systems, even when the number of reacting species is small. Consequently, accurate numerical solution of the CME is very challenging, despite the linear nature of the underlying ODEs. One often resorts to estimating the solutions via computationally intensive stochastic simulations. The goal of the present paper is to develop a novel deep-learning approach for computing solution statistics of high-dimensional CMEs by reformulating the stochastic dynamics using Kolmogorov's backward equation. The proposed method leverages superior approximation properties of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to reliably estimate expectations under the CME solution for several user-defined functions of the state-vector. This method is algorithmically based on reinforcement learning and it only requires a moderate number of stochastic simulations (in comparison to typical simulation-based approaches) to train the "policy function". This allows not just the numerical approximation of various expectations for the CME solution but also of its sensitivities with respect to all the reaction network parameters (e.g. rate constants). We provide four examples to illustrate our methodology and provide several directions for future research., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

In cells, multiple molecular motors work together as teams to carry cargoes such as vesicles and organelles over long distances to their destinations by stepping along a network of cytoskeletal filaments. How motors that typically mechanically interfere with each other, work together as teams is unclear. Here we explored the possibility that purely physical mechanisms, such as cargo surface fluidity, may potentially enhance teamwork, both at the single motor and cargo level. To explore these mechanisms, we developed a three dimensional simulation of cargo transport along microtubules by teams of kinesin-1 motors. We accounted for cargo membrane fluidity by explicitly simulating the Brownian dynamics of motors on the cargo surface and considered both the load and ATP dependence of single motor functioning. Our simulations show that surface fluidity could lead to the reduction of negative mechanical interference between kinesins and enhanced load sharing thereby increasing the average duration of single motors on the filament. This, along with a cooperative increase in on-rates as more motors bind leads to enhanced collective processivity. At the cargo level, surface fluidity makes more motors available for binding, which can act synergistically with the above effects to further increase transport distances though this effect is significant only at low ATP or high motor density. Additionally, the fluid surface allows for the clustering of motors at a well defined location on the surface relative to the microtubule and the fluid-coupled motors can exert more collective force per motor against loads. Our work on understanding how teamwork arises in cargo-coupled motors allows us to connect single motor properties to overall transport, sheds new light on cellular processes, reconciles existing observations, encourages new experimental validation efforts and can also suggest new ways of improving the transport of artificial cargo powered by motor teams. Author summary: In cells, multiple molecular motors work together as teams to carry cargoes such as vesicles and organelles over long distances to their destinations by stepping along a network of protein filaments. How do motors that interfere with each other when coupled rigidly in laboratory experiments, function well as teams within cells? In this paper, we show, using computer simulations, that the fluid surfaces of cellular cargo reduce the mechanical interference between motors allowing better load sharing and increased duration of motors on the filament, thereby increasing the distance over which they can carry cargo. We additionally found that motors pull cargo closer to the filament increasing the attachment rates of other unbound motors. These effects act synergistically with an increased availability of motors due to fluidity to further increase travel distances. Fluid surfaces also allow clustering of the motors and increased collective force against load. Our work on understanding how teamwork arises in mechanically coupled motors sheds new light on cellular processes, reconciles existing observations, encourages new experimental validation efforts and can also suggest new ways of improving transport of artificial cargo powered by motor teams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Cortical circuits process information by rich recurrent interactions between excitatory neurons and inhibitory interneurons. One of the prime functions of interneurons is to stabilize the circuit by feedback inhibition, but the level of specificity on which inhibitory feedback operates is not fully resolved. We hypothesized that inhibitory circuits could enable separate feedback control loops for different synaptic input streams, by means of specific feedback inhibition to different neuronal compartments. To investigate this hypothesis, we adopted an optimization approach. Leveraging recent advances in training spiking network models, we optimized the connectivity and short-term plasticity of interneuron circuits for compartment-specific feedback inhibition onto pyramidal neurons. Over the course of the optimization, the interneurons diversified into two classes that resembled parvalbumin (PV) and somatostatin (SST) expressing interneurons. Using simulations and mathematical analyses, we show that the resulting circuit can be understood as a neural decoder that inverts the nonlinear biophysical computations performed within the pyramidal cells. Our model provides a proof of concept for studying structure-function relations in cortical circuits by a combination of gradient-based optimization and biologically plausible phenomenological models. Author summary: The brain contains billions of nerve cells—neurons—that can be classified into different types depending on their shape, connectivity and activity. A particularly diverse group of neurons is that of inhibitory neurons, named after their suppressive effect on neural activity. Presumably, their diverse properties allow inhibitory neurons to fulfil different functions, but what these functions are is currently unclear. In this paper, we investigated if a particular function can explain the existence and properties of the two most common inhibitory cell classes: The need to regulate activity in different physical parts (compartments) of the neurons they target. We investigated this function in a computer model, using optimization to find the neuron properties best-suited for compartment-specific inhibition. Our key result is that after the optimization, model neurons largely fell into two classes that resembled the two types of biological neurons. In particular, the optimized neurons were connected to only one compartment of other neurons. This suggests that the diversity of inhibitory neurons is well suited for compartment-specific inhibition. In the future, our approach of optimizing neural properties might be used to investigate other functions (or dysfunctions) of neuron diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision-making about pandemic mitigation often relies upon simulation modelling. Models of disease transmission through networks of contacts-between individuals or between population centres-are increasingly used for these purposes. Real-world contact networks are rich in structural features that influence infection transmission, such as tightly-knit local communities that are weakly connected to one another. In this paper, we propose a new flow-based edge-betweenness centrality method for detecting bottleneck edges that connect nodes in contact networks. In particular, we utilize convex optimization formulations based on the idea of diffusion with p-norm network flow. Using simulation models of COVID-19 transmission through real network data at both individual and county levels, we demonstrate that targeting bottleneck edges identified by the proposed method reduces the number of infected cases by up to 10% more than state-of-the-art edge-betweenness methods. Furthermore, the proposed method is orders of magnitude faster than existing methods., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The origin of life involved complicated evolutionary processes. Computer modeling is a promising way to reveal relevant mechanisms. However, due to the limitation of our knowledge on prebiotic chemistry, it is usually difficult to justify parameter-setting for the modeling. Thus, typically, the studies were conducted in a reverse way: the parameter-space was explored to find those parameter values "supporting" a hypothetical scene (that is, leaving the parameter-justification a later job when sufficient knowledge is available). Exploring the parameter-space manually is an arduous job (especially when the modeling becomes complicated) and additionally, difficult to characterize as regular "Methods" in a paper. Here we show that a machine-learning-like approach may be adopted, automatically optimizing the parameters. With this efficient parameter-exploring approach, the evolutionary modeling on the origin of life would become much more powerful. In particular, based on this, it is expected that more near-reality (complex) models could be introduced, and thereby theoretical research would be more tightly associated with experimental investigation in this field–hopefully leading to significant steps forward in respect to our understanding on the origin of life. Author summary: People have long been interested in the evolutionary processes through which life on our planet could have arisen from a non-life background. However, it seems that experimental studies in this field are proceeding slowly, perhaps owing to the complication of such processes. In the meantime, computer modeling has shown its potential to disclose the evolutionary mechanisms involved. Now a major difficulty of the computer modeling work is to justify the parameter-setting–on account of our limited knowledge on prebiotic chemistry and environments. Thus, people tend to explore the parameter space to seek parameter values in favor of the hypothetic scene and leave the parameter-justification a later job when sufficient knowledge is available. To date, the parameter-exploration is usually conducted manually (in many cases by trial and error), thus arduous and unpredictable. Inspired by the algorithm of machine-learning, we designed an automatic approach of parameter-exploration. The results showed that the approach is quite effective–that is, "good" parameter-sets in favor of hypothetic scenes in the origin of life can be found automatically. It is expected that such a machine-learning-like method would greatly enhance the efficiency of our evolutionary modeling studies on the origin of life in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Myriad risk factors-including uncontrolled hypertension, aging, and diverse genetic mutations-contribute to the development and enlargement of thoracic aortic aneurysms. Detailed analyses of clinical data and longitudinal studies of murine models continue to provide insight into the natural history of these potentially lethal conditions. Yet, because of the co-existence of multiple risk factors in most cases, it has been difficult to isolate individual effects of the many different factors or to understand how they act in combination. In this paper, we use a data-informed computational model of the initiation and progression of thoracic aortic aneurysms to contrast key predisposing risk factors both in isolation and in combination; these factors include localized losses of elastic fiber integrity, aberrant collagen remodeling, reduced smooth muscle contractility, and dysfunctional mechanosensing or mechanoregulation of extracellular matrix along with superimposed hypertension and aortic aging. In most cases, mild-to-severe localized losses in cellular function or matrix integrity give rise to varying degrees of local dilatations of the thoracic aorta, with enlargement typically exacerbated in cases wherein predisposing risk factors co-exist. The simulations suggest, for the first time, that effects of compromised smooth muscle contractility are more important in terms of dysfunctional mechanosensing and mechanoregulation of matrix than in vessel-level control of diameter and, furthermore, that dysfunctional mechanobiological control can yield lesions comparable to those in cases of compromised elastic fiber integrity. Particularly concerning, therefore, is that loss of constituents such as fibrillin-1, as in Marfan syndrome, can compromise both elastic fiber integrity and mechanosensing., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Reducing spillover of zoonotic pathogens is an appealing approach to preventing human disease and minimizing the risk of future epidemics and pandemics. Although the immediate human health benefit of reducing spillover is clear, over time, spillover reduction could lead to counterintuitive negative consequences for human health. Here, we use mathematical models and computer simulations to explore the conditions under which unanticipated consequences of spillover reduction can occur in systems where the severity of disease increases with age at infection. Our results demonstrate that, because the average age at infection increases as spillover is reduced, programs that reduce spillover can actually increase population-level disease burden if the clinical severity of infection increases sufficiently rapidly with age. If, however, immunity wanes over time and reinfection is possible, our results reveal that negative health impacts of spillover reduction become substantially less likely. When our model is parameterized using published data on Lassa virus in West Africa, it predicts that negative health outcomes are possible, but likely to be restricted to a small subset of populations where spillover is unusually intense. Together, our results suggest that adverse consequences of spillover reduction programs are unlikely but that the public health gains observed immediately after spillover reduction may fade over time as the age structure of immunity gradually re-equilibrates to a reduced force of infection. Author summary: Many pathogens, such as rabies, coronaviruses, and hantaviruses primarily circulate within wild animals but can infect humans when the opportunity arises. This pervasive challenge to public health has motivated the development of new methods designed to reduce the frequency of these spillover events. Although reducing spillover infection of humans appears to be an obvious win for public health, it is conceivable that altering historical patterns of spillover could change the age structure of human immunity in a way that undermines human health. Using mathematical and computational models we evaluate the conditions required for these counterintuitive impacts to occur. Our analyses demonstrate that reducing spillover from wild animals will generally improve public health and that negative outcomes can occur in only rare and unusual circumstances. Although negative impacts of spillover reduction are likely to be rare, our results show that the public health benefits of spillover reduction may fade over time unless a near total elimination of spillover can be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a current interest in quantifying time-varying connectivity (TVC) based on neuroimaging data such as fMRI. Many methods have been proposed, and are being applied, revealing new insight into the brain's dynamics. However, given that the ground truth for TVC in the brain is unknown, many concerns remain regarding the accuracy of proposed estimates. Since there exist many TVC methods it is difficult to assess differences in time-varying connectivity between studies. In this paper, we present tvc_benchmarker, which is a Python package containing four simulations to test TVC methods. Here, we evaluate five different methods that together represent a wide spectrum of current approaches to estimating TVC (sliding window, tapered sliding window, multiplication of temporal derivatives, spatial distance and jackknife correlation). These simulations were designed to test each method's ability to track changes in covariance over time, which is a key property in TVC analysis. We found that all tested methods correlated positively with each other, but there were large differences in the strength of the correlations between methods. To facilitate comparisons with future TVC methods, we propose that the described simulations can act as benchmark tests for evaluation of methods. Using tvc_benchmarker researchers can easily add, compare and submit their own TVC methods to evaluate its performance., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

A biophysical model that captures molecular homeostatic control of ions at the perisynaptic cradle (PsC) is of fundamental importance for understanding the interplay between astroglial and neuronal compartments. In this paper, we develop a multi-compartmental mathematical model which proposes a novel mechanism whereby the flow of cations in thin processes is restricted due to negatively charged membrane lipids which result in the formation of deep potential wells near the dipole heads. These wells restrict the flow of cations to "hopping" between adjacent wells as they transverse the process, and this surface retention of cations will be shown to give rise to the formation of potassium (K+) and sodium (Na+) microdomains at the PsC. We further propose that a K+ microdomain formed at the PsC, provides the driving force for the return of K+ to the extracellular space for uptake by the neurone, thereby preventing K+ undershoot. A slow decay of Na+ was also observed in our simulation after a period of glutamate stimulation which is in strong agreement with experimental observations. The pathological implications of microdomain formation during neuronal excitation are also discussed., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The presence of treatment-resistant cells is an important factor that limits the efficacy of cancer therapy, and the prospect of resistance is considered the major cause of the treatment strategy. Several recent studies have employed mathematical models to elucidate the dynamics of generating resistant cancer cells and attempted to predict the probability of emerging resistant cells. The purpose of this paper is to present numerical approach to compute the number of resistant cells and the emerging probability of resistance. Stochastic model was designed and developed a method to approximately but efficiently compute the number of resistant cells and the probability of resistance. To model the progression of cancer, a discrete-state, two-dimensional Markov process whose states are the total number of cells and the number of resistant cells was employed. Then exact analysis and approximate aggregation approaches were proposed to calculate the number of resistant cells and the probability of resistance when the cell population reaches detection size. To confirm the accuracy of computed results of approximation, relative errors between exact analysis and approximation were computed. The numerical values of our approximation method were very close to those of exact analysis calculated in the range of small detection size M = 500, 100, and 1500. Then computer simulation was performed to confirm the accuracy of computed results of approximation when the detection size was M = 10000,30000,50000,100000 and 1000000. All the numerical results of approximation fell between the upper level and the lower level of 95% confidential intervals and our method took less time to compute over a broad range of cell size. The effects of parameter change on emerging probabilities of resistance were also investigated by computed values using approximation method. The results showed that the number of divisions until the cell population reached the detection size is important for emerging the probability of resistance. The next step of numerical approach is to compute the emerging probabilities of resistance under drug administration and with multiple mutation. Another effective approximation would be necessary for the analysis of the latter case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degradation of cytosol-invading pathogens by autophagy, a process known as xenophagy, is an important mechanism of the innate immune system. Inside the host, Salmonella Typhimurium invades epithelial cells and resides within a specialized intracellular compartment, the Salmonella-containing vacuole. A fraction of these bacteria does not persist inside the vacuole and enters the host cytosol. Salmonella Typhimurium that invades the host cytosol becomes a target of the autophagy machinery for degradation. The xenophagy pathway has recently been discovered, and the exact molecular processes are not entirely characterized. Complete kinetic data for each molecular process is not available, so far. We developed a mathematical model of the xenophagy pathway to investigate this key defense mechanism. In this paper, we present a Petri net model of Salmonella xenophagy in epithelial cells. The model is based on functional information derived from literature data. It comprises the molecular mechanism of galectin-8-dependent and ubiquitin-dependent autophagy, including regulatory processes, like nutrient-dependent regulation of autophagy and TBK1-dependent activation of the autophagy receptor, OPTN. To model the activation of TBK1, we proposed a new mechanism of TBK1 activation, suggesting a spatial and temporal regulation of this process. Using standard Petri net analysis techniques, we found basic functional modules, which describe different pathways of the autophagic capture of Salmonella and reflect the basic dynamics of the system. To verify the model, we performed in silico knockout experiments. We introduced a new concept of knockout analysis to systematically compute and visualize the results, using an in silico knockout matrix. The results of the in silico knockout analyses were consistent with published experimental results and provide a basis for future investigations of the Salmonella xenophagy pathway., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

It has recently been suggested that movement variability directly increases the speed of motor learning. Here we use computational modeling of motor adaptation to show that variability can have a broad range of effects on learning, both negative and positive. Experimentally, we also find contributing and decelerating effects. Lastly, through a meta-analysis of published papers, we verify that across a wide range of experiments, movement variability has no statistical relation with learning rate. While motor learning is a complex process that can be modeled, further research is needed to understand the relative importance of the involved factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of network epidemiology's central assumptions is that the contact structure over which infectious diseases propagate can be represented as a static network. However, contacts are highly dynamic, changing at many time scales. In this paper, we investigate conceptually simple methods to construct static graphs for network epidemiology from temporal contact data. We evaluate these methods on empirical and synthetic model data. For almost all our cases, the network representation that captures most relevant information is a so-called exponential-threshold network. In these, each contact contributes with a weight decreasing exponentially with time, and there is an edge between a pair of vertices if the weight between them exceeds a threshold. Networks of aggregated contacts over an optimally chosen time window perform almost as good as the exponential-threshold networks. On the other hand, networks of accumulated contacts over the entire sampling time, and networks of concurrent partnerships, perform worse. We discuss these observations in the context of the temporal and topological structure of the data sets.

Efforts to engineer synthetic gene networks that spontaneously produce patterning in multicellular ensembles have focused on Turing's original model and the "activator-inhibitor" models of Meinhardt and Gierer. Systems based on this model are notoriously difficult to engineer. We present the first demonstration that Turing pattern formation can arise in a new family of oscillator-driven gene network topologies, specifically when a second feedback loop is introduced which quenches oscillations and incorporates a diffusible molecule. We provide an analysis of the system that predicts the range of kinetic parameters over which patterning should emerge and demonstrate the system's viability using stochastic simulations of a field of cells using realistic parameters. The primary goal of this paper is to provide a circuit architecture which can be implemented with relative ease by practitioners and which could serve as a model system for pattern generation in synthetic multicellular systems. Given the wide range of oscillatory circuits in natural systems, our system supports the tantalizing possibility that Turing pattern formation in natural multicellular systems can arise from oscillator-driven mechanisms.

We present a new approach to modeling languages for computational biology, which we call the layer-oriented approach. The approach stems from the observation that many diverse biological phenomena are described using a small set of mathematical formalisms (e.g. differential equations), while at the same time different domains and subdomains of computational biology require that models are structured according to the accepted terminology and classification of that domain. Our approach uses distinct semantic layers to represent the domain-specific biological concepts and the underlying mathematical formalisms. Additional functionality can be transparently added to the language by adding more layers. This approach is specifically concerned with declarative languages, and throughout the paper we note some of the limitations inherent to declarative approaches. The layer-oriented approach is a way to specify explicitly how high-level biological modeling concepts are mapped to a computational representation, while abstracting away details of particular programming languages and simulation environments. To illustrate this process, we define an example language for describing models of ionic currents, and use a general mathematical notation for semantic transformations to show how to generate model simulation code for various simulation environments. We use the example language to describe a Purkinje neuron model and demonstrate how the layer-oriented approach can be used for solving several practical issues of computational neuroscience model development. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the approach in comparison with other modeling language efforts in the domain of computational biology and outline some principles for extensible, flexible modeling language design. We conclude by describing in detail the semantic transformations defined for our language.

Shaping the primordia during development relies on forces and mechanisms able to control cell segregation. In the imaginal discs of Drosophila the cellular populations that will give rise to the dorsal and ventral parts on the wing blade are segregated and do not intermingle. A cellular population that becomes specified by the boundary of the dorsal and ventral cellular domains, the so-called organizer, controls this process. In this paper we study the dynamics and stability of the dorsal-ventral organizer of the wing imaginal disc of Drosophila as cell proliferation advances. Our approach is based on a vertex model to perform in silico experiments that are fully dynamical and take into account the available experimental data such as: cell packing properties, orientation of the cellular divisions, response upon membrane ablation, and robustness to mechanical perturbations induced by fast growing clones. Our results shed light on the complex interplay between the cytoskeleton mechanics, the cell cycle, the cell growth, and the cellular interactions in order to shape the dorsal-ventral organizer as a robust source of positional information and a lineage controller. Specifically, we elucidate the necessary and sufficient ingredients that enforce its functionality: distinctive mechanical properties, including increased tension, longer cell cycle duration, and a cleavage criterion that satisfies the Hertwig rule. Our results provide novel insights into the developmental mechanisms that drive the dynamics of the DV organizer and set a definition of the so-called Notch fence model in quantitative terms.

Heterogeneity in host populations is an important factor affecting the ability of a pathogen to invade, yet the quantitative investigation of its effects on epidemic spread is still an open problem. In this paper, we test recent theoretical results, which extend the established "percolation paradigm" to the spread of a pathogen in discrete heterogeneous host populations. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the probability of epidemic invasion decreases when host heterogeneity is increased. We use replicated experimental microcosms, in which the ubiquitous pathogenic fungus Rhizoctonia solani grows through a population of discrete nutrient sites on a lattice, with nutrient sites representing hosts. The degree of host heterogeneity within different populations is adjusted by changing the proportion and the nutrient concentration of nutrient sites. The experimental data are analysed via Bayesian inference methods, estimating pathogen transmission parameters for each individual population. We find a significant, negative correlation between heterogeneity and the probability of pathogen invasion, thereby validating the theory. The value of the correlation is also in remarkably good agreement with the theoretical predictions. We briefly discuss how our results can be exploited in the design and implementation of disease control strategies.

A key component of computational biology is to compare the results of computer modelling with experimental measurements. Despite substantial progress in the models and algorithms used in many areas of computational biology, such comparisons sometimes reveal that the computations are not in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The principle of maximum entropy is a general procedure for constructing probability distributions in the light of new data, making it a natural tool in cases when an initial model provides results that are at odds with experiments. The number of maximum entropy applications in our field has grown steadily in recent years, in areas as diverse as sequence analysis, structural modelling, and neurobiology. In this Perspectives article, we give a broad introduction to the method, in an attempt to encourage its further adoption. The general procedure is explained in the context of a simple example, after which we proceed with a real-world application in the field of molecular simulations, where the maximum entropy procedure has recently provided new insight. Given the limited accuracy of force fields, macromolecular simulations sometimes produce results that are at not in complete and quantitative accordance with experiments. A common solution to this problem is to explicitly ensure agreement between the two by perturbing the potential energy function towards the experimental data. So far, a general consensus for how such perturbations should be implemented has been lacking. Three very recent papers have explored this problem using the maximum entropy approach, providing both new theoretical and practical insights to the problem. We highlight each of these contributions in turn and conclude with a discussion on remaining challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discrete stochastic simulations are a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of chemical kinetics when there are small-to-moderate numbers of certain molecular species. In this paper we introduce delays into the stochastic simulation algorithm, thus mimicking delays associated with transcription and translation. We then show that this process may well explain more faithfully than continuous deterministic models the observed sustained oscillations in expression levels of hes1 mRNA and Hes1 protein.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa lipase is a 29-kDa protein that, following the determination of its crystal structure, was postulated to have a lid that stretched between residues 125 and 148. In this paper, using molecular dynamics simulations, we propose that there exists, in addition to the above-mentioned lid, a novel second lid in this lipase. We further show that the second lid, covering residues 210-222, acts as a triggering lid for the movement of the first. We also investigate the role of hydrophobicity in the movement of the lids and show that two residues, Phe214 and Ala217, play important roles in lid movement. To our knowledge, this is the first time that a double-lid movement of the type described in our manuscript has been presented to the scientific community. This work also elucidates the interplay of hydrophobic interactions in the dynamics, and hence the function, of an enzyme.

The idea that cognitive activity can be understood using nonlinear dynamics has been intensively discussed at length for the last 15 years. One of the popular points of view is that metastable states play a key role in the execution of cognitive functions. Experimental and modeling studies suggest that most of these functions are the result of transient activity of large-scale brain networks in the presence of noise. Such transients may consist of a sequential switching between different metastable cognitive states. The main problem faced when using dynamical theory to describe transient cognitive processes is the fundamental contradiction between reproducibility and flexibility of transient behavior. In this paper, we propose a theoretical description of transient cognitive dynamics based on the interaction of functionally dependent metastable cognitive states. The mathematical image of such transient activity is a stable heteroclinic channel, i.e., a set of trajectories in the vicinity of a heteroclinic skeleton that consists of saddles and unstable separatrices that connect their surroundings. We suggest a basic mathematical model, a strongly dissipative dynamical system, and formulate the conditions for the robustness and reproducibility of cognitive transients that satisfy the competing requirements for stability and flexibility. Based on this approach, we describe here an effective solution for the problem of sequential decision making, represented as a fixed time game: a player takes sequential actions in a changing noisy environment so as to maximize a cumulative reward. As we predict and verify in computer simulations, noise plays an important role in optimizing the gain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A small fraction of infectious bacteria use persistence as a strategy to survive exposure to antibiotics. Periodic pulse dosing of antibiotics has long been considered a potentially effective strategy towards eradication of persisters. Recent studies have demonstrated through in vitro experiments that it is indeed feasible to achieve such effectiveness. However, systematic design of periodic pulse dosing regimens to treat persisters is currently lacking. Here we rigorously develop a methodology for the systematic design of optimal periodic pulse dosing strategies for rapid eradication of persisters. A key outcome of the theoretical analysis, on which the proposed methodology is based, is that bactericidal effectiveness of periodic pulse dosing depends mainly on the ratio of durations of the corresponding on and off parts of the pulse. Simple formulas for critical and optimal values of this ratio are derived. The proposed methodology is supported by computer simulations and in vitro experiments. Author summary: Administering antibiotics in periodic pulses that alternate between high and low concentration has long been known as a possible dosing strategy to treat stubborn infections caused by bacteria known as persisters. Such bacteria use clever mechanisms to survive otherwise lethal temporary exposure to antibiotics and to resume normal activity upon antibiotic removal. Persisters pose a serious health problem. Recent studies have elucidated mechanisms of persistence and have confirmed that pulse dosing, if designed appropriately, can indeed be effective. However, effective pulse dosing design has been mainly handled by trial and error, requiring relatively extensive experimentation. Here we develop a method for rapid systematic design of effective pulse dosing. The method relies on a simple mathematical model and a minimal amount of standard experimental data. We derive corresponding design formulas that explicitly characterize the shape of generally effective or optimal periodic pulses. We tested our method through computer simulations and in vitro experiments, as well as on prior literature data. In all cases, the outcomes on persister bacteria eradication predicted by our method were confirmed. These results pave the way for ultimately developing effective pulse dosing regimens in realistic situations in vivo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate epidemiological models require parameter estimates that account for mobility patterns and social network structure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of probabilistic programming for parameter inference in these models. We consider an agent-based simulation that represents mobility networks as degree-corrected stochastic block models, whose parameters we estimate from cell phone co-location data. We then use probabilistic program inference methods to approximate the distribution over disease transmission parameters conditioned on reported cases and deaths. Our experiments demonstrate that the resulting models improve the quality of fit in multiple geographies relative to baselines that do not model network topology. Author summary: The ability to create computer simulations of epidemics is important to be able to predict where and when people will be become infected, identify factors which either contribute to or slow disease spread, and test various interventions without risking real lives. However, the conclusions of experiments performed using these simulations are only meaningful in the real world if we can be sure the simulation accurately models what is happening in the real world. We study methods for fitting parameters, such as infectiousness, to real world data so that the disease simulator correctly represents the actual disease. We achieve this using probabilistic programming methods which automatically adjust the parameters of the simulator until its outputs look realistic. Our method can work on very detailed simulators which model individual people interacting at specific locations in different locales whereas other methods can only fit very simple simulators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite increased understanding about psoriasis pathophysiology, currently there is a lack of predictive computational models. We developed a personalisable ordinary differential equations model of human epidermis and psoriasis that incorporates immune cells and cytokine stimuli to regulate the transition between two stable steady states of clinically healthy (non-lesional) and disease (lesional psoriasis, plaque) skin. In line with experimental data, an immune stimulus initiated transition from healthy skin to psoriasis and apoptosis of immune and epidermal cells induced by UVB phototherapy returned the epidermis back to the healthy state. Notably, our model was able to distinguish disease flares. The flexibility of our model permitted the development of a patient-specific "UVB sensitivity" parameter that reflected subject-specific sensitivity to apoptosis and enabled simulation of individual patients' clinical response trajectory. In a prospective clinical study of 94 patients, serial individual UVB doses and clinical response (Psoriasis Area Severity Index) values collected over the first three weeks of UVB therapy informed estimation of the "UVB sensitivity" parameter and the prediction of individual patient outcome at the end of phototherapy. An important advance of our model is its potential for direct clinical application through early assessment of response to UVB therapy, and for individualised optimisation of phototherapy regimes to improve clinical outcome. Additionally by incorporating the complex interaction of immune cells and epidermal keratinocytes, our model provides a basis to study and predict outcomes to biologic therapies in psoriasis. Author summary: We present a new computer model for psoriasis, an immune-mediated disabling skin disease which presents with red, raised scaly plaques that can appear over the whole body. Psoriasis affects millions of people in the UK alone and causes significant impairment to quality of life, and currently has no cure. Only a few treatments (including UVB phototherapy) can induce temporary remission. Despite our increased understanding about psoriasis, treatments are still given on a 'trial and error' basis and there are no reliable computer models that can a) elucidate the mechanisms behind psoriasis onset or flare and b) predict a patient's response to a course of treatment (e.g., phototherapy) and the likelihood of inducing a period of remission. Our computer model addresses both these needs. First, it explicitly describes the interaction between the immune system and skin cells. Second, our model captures response to therapy at the individual patient level and enables personalised prediction of clinical outcomes. Notably, our model also supports prediction of amending individual UVB phototherapy regimes based on the patient's initial response that include for example personalised delivery schedules (i.e., 3x weekly vs. 5x weekly phototherapy). Therefore, our work is a crucial step towards precision medicine for psoriasis treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present simulations of non-enzymatic template-directed RNA synthesis that incorporate primer extension, ligation, melting, and reannealing. Strand growth occurs over multiple heating/cooling cycles, producing strands of several hundred nucleotides in length, starting with random oligomers of 4 to 10 nucleotides. A strand typically grows by only 1 or 2 nucleotides in each cycle. Therefore, a strand is copied from many different templates, not from one specific complementary strand. A diverse sequence mixture is produced, and there is no exact copying of sequences, even if single base additions are fully accurate (no mutational errors). It has been proposed that RNA systems may contain a virtual circular genome, in which sequences partially overlap in a way that is mutually catalytic. We show that virtual circles do not emerge naturally in our simulations, and that a system initiated with a virtual circle can only maintain itself if there are no mutational errors and there is no input of new sequences formed by random polymerization. Furthermore, if a virtual sequence and its complement contain repeated short words, new sequences can be produced that were not on the original virtual circle. Therefore the virtual circle sequence cannot maintain itself. Functional sequences with secondary structures contain complementary words on opposite sides of stem regions. Both these words are repeated in the complementary sequence; hence, functional sequences cannot be encoded on a virtual circle. Additionally, we consider sequence replication in populations of protocells. We suppose that functional ribozymes benefit the cell which contains them. Nevertheless, scrambling of sequences occurs, and the functional sequence is not maintained, even when under positive selection. Author summary: The earliest form of RNA replication may have been non-enzymatic, without requiring polymerase ribozymes. Non-enzymatic replication forms double strands that are unlikely to separate unless melting is driven by temperature cycling. However, re-annealing of existing strands occurs rapidly on cooling, and this prevents subsequent cycles of copying if there are multiple copies of similar sequences. In contrast, if there is a diverse mixture of sequences, partially matching sequences can reanneal in configurations that allow continued strand growth. We show that this allows continued synthesis of populations of random sequences that are quite long. We test the idea that a virtual circular genome could exist in such a mixture. We show that a virtual genome does not arise spontaneously and that it cannot be maintained except in unrealistic ideal cases. We conclude that functional sequence information cannot be encoded on the fragments of a virtual circle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bird flocks under predation demonstrate complex patterns of collective escape. These patterns may emerge by self-organization from local interactions among group-members. Computational models have been shown to be valuable for identifying what behavioral rules may govern such interactions among individuals during collective motion. However, our knowledge of such rules for collective escape is limited by the lack of quantitative data on bird flocks under predation in the field. In the present study, we analyze the first GPS trajectories of pigeons in airborne flocks attacked by a robotic falcon in order to build a species-specific model of collective escape. We use our model to examine a recently identified distance-dependent pattern of collective behavior: the closer the prey is to the predator, the higher the frequency with which flock members turn away from it. We first extract from the empirical data of pigeon flocks the characteristics of their shape and internal structure (bearing angle and distance to nearest neighbors). Combining these with information on their coordination from the literature, we build an agent-based model adjusted to pigeons' collective escape. We show that the pattern of turning away from the predator with increased frequency when the predator is closer arises without prey prioritizing escape when the predator is near. Instead, it emerges through self-organization from a behavioral rule to avoid the predator independently of their distance to it. During this self-organization process, we show how flock members increase their consensus over which direction to escape and turn collectively as the predator gets closer. Our results suggest that coordination among flock members, combined with simple escape rules, reduces the cognitive costs of tracking the predator while flocking. Such escape rules that are independent of the distance to the predator can now be investigated in other species. Our study showcases the important role of computational models in the interpretation of empirical findings of collective behavior. Author summary: Bird flocks show fascinating patterns of collective motion, particularly when escaping a predator. Little is known, however, about the underlying mechanisms of these patterns. We fill this gap by firstly analyzing GPS data of pigeon flocks under attack by a robotic-predator and secondly studying their collective escape in a computer simulation. Previous research on pigeons has revealed that flock members turn away from the predator more the closer the predator gets. Using computer simulations that are based on pigeon-specific characteristics of motion and coordination among individuals, we study what escape rules at the individual level may underlie this distance-dependent pattern. We show that, even if individuals do not intend to escape more when the predator is closer, their escape frequency still increases the closer they get to the predator. This happens by self-organization from the coordination among individuals and despite their tendency to turn away from the predator being distance-independent. A key aspect of this process is the increasing consensus among flock members over the escape direction when the predator gets closer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cortical pyramidal cells (PCs) have a specialized dendritic mechanism for the generation of bursts, suggesting that these events play a special role in cortical information processing. In vivo, bursts occur at a low, but consistent rate. Theory suggests that this network state increases the amount of information they convey. However, because burst activity relies on a threshold mechanism, it is rather sensitive to dendritic input levels. In spiking network models, network states in which bursts occur rarely are therefore typically not robust, but require fine-tuning. Here, we show that this issue can be solved by a homeostatic inhibitory plasticity rule in dendrite-targeting interneurons that is consistent with experimental data. The suggested learning rule can be combined with other forms of inhibitory plasticity to self-organize a network state in which both spikes and bursts occur asynchronously and irregularly at low rate. Finally, we show that this network state creates the network conditions for a recently suggested multiplexed code and thereby indeed increases the amount of information encoded in bursts. Author summary: The language of the brain consists of sequences of action potentials. These sequences often contain bursts, short "words" consisting of a few action potentials in rapid succession. Bursts appear to play a special role in the brain. They indicate whether a stimulus was perceived or missed, and they are very effective drivers of synaptic plasticity, the neural substrate of learning. Bursts occur rarely, but consistently, a condition that is thought to maximize the amount of information they can communicate. In our article, we argue that this condition is far from self-evident, but requires very special circumstances. We show that these circumstances can be reached by homeostatic inhibitory plasticity in certain inhibitory neuron types. This may sound complicated, but basically works just like a thermostat. When bursts occur too often, inhibition goes up and suppresses them. When they are too rare, inhibition goes down and thereby increases their number. In computer simulations, we show that this simple mechanism can create circumstances akin to those in the brain, and indeed allows bursts to convey information effectively. Whether this mechanism is indeed used by the brain now remains to be tested by our experimental colleagues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In vivo imaging of cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) killing activity revealed that infected cells have a higher observed probability of dying after multiple contacts with CTLs. We developed a three-dimensional agent-based model to discriminate different hypotheses about how infected cells get killed based on quantitative 2-photon in vivo observations. We compared a constant CTL killing probability with mechanisms of signal integration in CTL or infected cells. The most likely scenario implied increased susceptibility of infected cells with increasing number of CTL contacts where the total number of contacts was a critical factor. However, when allowing in silico T cells to initiate new interactions with apoptotic target cells (zombie contacts), a contact history independent killing mechanism was also in agreement with experimental datasets. The comparison of observed datasets to simulation results, revealed limitations in interpreting 2-photon data, and provided readouts to distinguish CTL killing models. Author summary: Despite having a clear understanding of cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) mediated cytotoxicity mechanisms, its quantitative dynamics remain unexplored at a cellular level. We developed an agent-based model to compare different hypotheses for mechanisms of CTL mediated cytotoxicity that could lead to an increased killing of infected cells at higher interactions with CTLs as seen in vivo. We showed that this behaviour can be explained by modulation of properties by infected cells or CTLs with increasing number of contacts. For the modulation, we compared two modes of signal integration and showed that the number of contacts is the main determinant of cell death. We also studied the impact of contacts between CTLs and apoptotic infected cells on observed killing properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infectious disease surveillance systems provide vital data for guiding disease prevention and control policies, yet the formalization of methods to optimize surveillance networks has largely been overlooked. Decisions surrounding surveillance design parameters—such as the number and placement of surveillance sites, target populations, and case definitions—are often determined by expert opinion or deference to operational considerations, without formal analysis of the influence of design parameters on surveillance objectives. Here we propose a simulation framework to guide evidence-based surveillance network design to better achieve specific surveillance goals with limited resources. We define evidence-based surveillance design as an optimization problem, acknowledging the many operational constraints under which surveillance systems operate, the many dimensions of surveillance system design, the multiple and competing goals of surveillance, and the complex and dynamic nature of disease systems. We describe an analytical framework—the Disease Surveillance Informatics Optimization and Simulation (DIOS) framework—for the identification of optimal surveillance designs through mathematical representations of disease and surveillance processes, definition of objective functions, and numerical optimization. We then apply the framework to the problem of selecting candidate sites to expand an existing surveillance network under alternative objectives of: (1) improving spatial prediction of disease prevalence at unmonitored sites; or (2) estimating the observed effect of a risk factor on disease. Results of this demonstration illustrate how optimal designs are sensitive to both surveillance goals and the underlying spatial pattern of the target disease. The findings affirm the value of designing surveillance systems through quantitative and adaptive analysis of network characteristics and performance. The framework can be applied to the design of surveillance systems tailored to setting-specific disease transmission dynamics and surveillance needs, and can yield improved understanding of tradeoffs between network architectures. Author summary: Disease surveillance systems are essential for understanding the epidemiology of infectious diseases and improving population health. A well-designed surveillance system can achieve a high level of fidelity in estimates of interest (e.g., disease trends, risk factors) within its operational constraints. Currently, design parameters that define surveillance systems (e.g., number and placement of the surveillance sites, target populations, case definitions) are selected largely by expert opinion and practical considerations. Such an informal approach is less tenable when multiple aspects of surveillance design—or multiple surveillance objectives—need to be considered simultaneously, and are subject to resource or logistical constraints. Here we propose a framework to optimize surveillance system design given a set of defined surveillance objectives and a dynamical model of the disease system under study. The framework provides a platform for in silico surveillance system design, and allows the formulation of surveillance guidelines based on quantitative evidence, tailored to local realities and priorities. The framework is designed to facilitate greater collaboration between health planners and computational and data scientists to advance surveillance science and strengthen the architecture of surveillance networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial biological networks are abundant on all scales of life, from single cells to ecosystems, and perform various important functions including signal transmission and nutrient transport. These biological functions depend on the architecture of the network, which emerges as the result of a dynamic, feedback-driven developmental process. While cell behavior during growth can be genetically encoded, the resulting network structure depends on spatial constraints and tissue architecture. Since network growth is often difficult to observe experimentally, computer simulations can help to understand how local cell behavior determines the resulting network architecture. We present here a computational framework based on directional statistics to model network formation in space and time under arbitrary spatial constraints. Growth is described as a biased correlated random walk where direction and branching depend on the local environmental conditions and constraints, which are presented as 3D multilayer grid. To demonstrate the application of our tool, we perform growth simulations of a dense network between cells and compare the results to experimental data from osteocyte networks in bone. Our generic framework might help to better understand how network patterns depend on spatial constraints, or to identify the biological cause of deviations from healthy network function. Author summary: We present a novel modeling approach and computational implementation to better understand the development of spatial biological networks under the influence of external signals. Our tool allows us to study the relationship between local biological growth parameters and the emerging macroscopic network function using simulations. This computational approach can generate plausible network graphs that take local feedback into account and provide a basis for comparative studies using graph-based methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combining information from multiple sources is a fundamental operation performed by networks of neurons in the brain, whose general principles are still largely unknown. Experimental evidence suggests that combination of inputs in cortex relies on nonlinear summation. Such nonlinearities are thought to be fundamental to perform complex computations. However, these non-linearities are inconsistent with the balanced-state model, one of the most popular models of cortical dynamics, which predicts networks have a linear response. This linearity is obtained in the limit of very large recurrent coupling strength. We investigate the stationary response of networks of spiking neurons as a function of coupling strength. We show that, while a linear transfer function emerges at strong coupling, nonlinearities are prominent at finite coupling, both at response onset and close to saturation. We derive a general framework to classify nonlinear responses in these networks and discuss which of them can be captured by rate models. This framework could help to understand the observed diversity of non-linearities observed in cortical networks. Author summary: Models of cortical networks are often studied in the strong coupling limit, where the so-called balanced state emerges. Across a wide range of parameters, balanced state models explain a number of ubiquitous properties of cortex, such as irregular neural firing. However, in the strong coupling limit, balanced state models show an unrealistic linear network transfer function. We examined, in networks of spiking neurons, how nonlinearities arise as network coupling strength is reduced to realistic levels. We examine closed-form solutions that arise from mean-field analysis, and confirm results with numerical simulations, to show that nonlinearities at response onset and saturation emerge as coupling strength is reduced. Critically, for realistic parameter values, both types of nonlinearities are observed at experimentally-observed firing rates. Thus, cortical network models with moderate coupling strength can account for experimentally observed cortical response nonlinearities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The majority of neurons in primary visual cortex respond selectively to bars of light that have a specific orientation and move in a specific direction. The spatial and temporal responses of such neurons are non-separable. How neurons accomplish that computational feat without resort to explicit time delays is unknown. We propose a novel neural mechanism whereby visual cortex computes non-separable responses by generating endogenous traveling waves of neural activity that resonate with the space-time signature of the visual stimulus. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the response are defined by the local topology of excitatory and inhibitory lateral connections in the cortex. We simulated the interaction between endogenous traveling waves and the visual stimulus using spatially distributed populations of excitatory and inhibitory neurons with Wilson-Cowan dynamics and inhibitory-surround coupling. Our model reliably detected visual gratings that moved with a given speed and direction provided that we incorporated neural competition to suppress false motion signals in the opposite direction. The findings suggest that endogenous traveling waves in visual cortex can impart direction-selectivity on neural responses without resort to explicit time delays. They also suggest a functional role for motion opponency in eliminating false motion signals. Author summary: It is well established that the so-called 'simple cells' of the primary visual cortex respond preferentially to oriented bars of light that move across the visual field with a particular speed and direction. The spatiotemporal responses of such neurons are said to be non-separable because they cannot be constructed from independent spatial and temporal neural mechanisms. Contemporary theories of how neurons compute non-separable responses typically rely on finely tuned transmission delays between signals from disparate regions of the visual field. However the existence of such delays is controversial. We propose an alternative neural mechanism for computing non-separable responses that does not require transmission delays. It instead relies on the predisposition of the cortical tissue to spontaneously generate spatiotemporal waves of neural activity that travel with a particular speed and direction. We propose that the endogenous wave activity resonates with the visual stimulus to elicit direction-selective neural responses to visual motion. We demonstrate the principle in computer models and show that competition between opposing neurons robustly enhances their ability to discriminate between visual gratings that move in opposite directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]