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The liver is the central organ for detoxification of xenobiotics in the body. In pharmacokinetic modeling, hepatic metabolization capacity is typically quantified as hepatic clearance computed as degradation in well-stirred compartments. This is an accurate mechanistic description once a quasi-equilibrium between blood and surrounding tissue is established. However, this model structure cannot be used to simulate spatio-temporal distribution during the first instants after drug injection. In this paper, we introduce a new spatially resolved model to simulate first pass perfusion of compounds within the naive liver. The model is based on vascular structures obtained from computed tomography as well as physiologically based mass transfer descriptions obtained from pharmacokinetic modeling. The physiological architecture of hepatic tissue in our model is governed by both vascular geometry and the composition of the connecting hepatic tissue. In particular, we here consider locally distributed mass flow in liver tissue instead of considering well-stirred compartments. Experimentally, the model structure corresponds to an isolated perfused liver and provides an ideal platform to address first pass effects and questions of hepatic heterogeneity. The model was evaluated for three exemplary compounds covering key aspects of perfusion, distribution and metabolization within the liver. As pathophysiological states we considered the influence of steatosis and carbon tetrachloride-induced liver necrosis on total hepatic distribution and metabolic capacity. Notably, we found that our computational predictions are in qualitative agreement with previously published experimental data. The simulation results provide an unprecedented level of detail in compound concentration profiles during first pass perfusion, both spatio-temporally in liver tissue itself and temporally in the outflowing blood. We expect our model to be the foundation of further spatially resolved models of the liver in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of network epidemiology's central assumptions is that the contact structure over which infectious diseases propagate can be represented as a static network. However, contacts are highly dynamic, changing at many time scales. In this paper, we investigate conceptually simple methods to construct static graphs for network epidemiology from temporal contact data. We evaluate these methods on empirical and synthetic model data. For almost all our cases, the network representation that captures most relevant information is a so-called exponential-threshold network. In these, each contact contributes with a weight decreasing exponentially with time, and there is an edge between a pair of vertices if the weight between them exceeds a threshold. Networks of aggregated contacts over an optimally chosen time window perform almost as good as the exponential-threshold networks. On the other hand, networks of accumulated contacts over the entire sampling time, and networks of concurrent partnerships, perform worse. We discuss these observations in the context of the temporal and topological structure of the data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we use a hybrid multiscale mathematical model that incorporates both individual cell behaviour through the cell-cycle and the effects of the changing microenvironment through oxygen dynamics to study the multiple effects of radiation therapy. The oxygenation status of the cells is considered as one of the important prognostic markers for determining radiation therapy, as hypoxic cells are less radiosensitive. Another factor that critically affects radiation sensitivity is cell-cycle regulation. The effects of radiation therapy are included in the model using a modified linear quadratic model for the radiation damage, incorporating the effects of hypoxia and cell-cycle in determining the cell-cycle phase-specific radiosensitivity. Furthermore, after irradiation, an individual cell's cell-cycle dynamics are intrinsically modified through the activation of pathways responsible for repair mechanisms, often resulting in a delay/arrest in the cell-cycle. The model is then used to study various combinations of multiple doses of cell-cycle dependent chemotherapies and radiation therapy, as radiation may work better by the partial synchronisation of cells in the most radiosensitive phase of the cell-cycle. Moreover, using this multi-scale model, we investigate the optimum sequencing and scheduling of these multi-modality treatments, and the impact of internal and external heterogeneity on the spatio-temporal patterning of the distribution of tumour cells and their response to different treatment schedules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thromboembolic disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the last several years there have been a number of studies attempting to identify mechanisms that stop thrombus growth. This paper identifies a novel mechanism related to formation of a fibrin cap. In particular, protein transport through a fibrin network, an important component of a thrombus, was studied by integrating experiments with model simulations. The network permeability and the protein diffusivity were shown to be important factors determining the transport of proteins through the fibrin network. Our previous in vivo studies in mice have shown that stabilized non-occluding thrombi are covered by a fibrin network (‘fibrin cap’). Model simulations, calibrated using experiments in microfluidic devices and accounting for the permeable structure of the fibrin cap, demonstrated that thrombin generated inside the thrombus was washed downstream through the fibrin network, thus limiting exposure of platelets on the thrombus surface to thrombin. Moreover, by restricting the approach of resting platelets in the flowing blood to the thrombus core, the fibrin cap impaired platelets from reaching regions of high thrombin concentration necessary for platelet activation and limited thrombus growth. The formation of a fibrin cap prevents small thrombi that frequently develop in the absence of major injury in the 60000 km of vessels in the body from developing into life threatening events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although many human diseases have a genetic component involving many loci, the majority of studies are statistically underpowered to isolate the many contributing variants, raising the question of the existence of alternate processes to identify disease mutations. To address this question, we collect ancestral transcription factor binding sites disrupted by an individual’s variants and then look for their most significant congregation next to a group of functionally related genes. Strikingly, when the method is applied to five different full human genomes, the top enriched function for each is invariably reflective of their very different medical histories. For example, our method implicates “abnormal cardiac output” for a patient with a longstanding family history of heart disease, “decreased circulating sodium level” for an individual with hypertension, and other biologically appealing links for medical histories spanning narcolepsy to axonal neuropathy. Our results suggest that erosion of gene regulation by mutation load significantly contributes to observed heritable phenotypes that manifest in the medical history. The test we developed exposes a hitherto hidden layer of personal variants that promise to shed new light on human disease penetrance, expressivity and the sensitivity with which we can detect them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction and control of the spread of infectious disease in human populations benefits greatly from our growing capacity to quantify human movement behavior. Here we develop a mathematical model for non-transmissible infections contracted from a localized environmental source, informed by a detailed description of movement patterns of the population of Great Britain. The model is applied to outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease, a potentially life-threatening form of pneumonia caused by the bacteria Legionella pneumophilia. We use case-report data from three recent outbreaks that have occurred in Great Britain where the source has already been identified by public health agencies. We first demonstrate that the amount of individual-level heterogeneity incorporated in the movement data greatly influences our ability to predict the source location. The most accurate predictions were obtained using reported travel histories to describe movements of infected individuals, but using detailed simulation models to estimate movement patterns offers an effective fast alternative. Secondly, once the source is identified, we show that our model can be used to accurately determine the population likely to have been exposed to the pathogen, and hence predict the residential locations of infected individuals. The results give rise to an effective control strategy that can be implemented rapidly in response to an outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-density lipoprotein (HDL) is believed to play an important role in lowering cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by mediating the process of reverse cholesterol transport (RCT). Via RCT, excess cholesterol from peripheral tissues is carried back to the liver and hence should lead to the reduction of atherosclerotic plaques. The recent failures of HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) raising therapies have initiated a re-examination of the link between CVD risk and the rate of RCT, and have brought into question whether all target modulations that raise HDL-C would be atheroprotective. To help address these issues, a novel in-silico model has been built to incorporate modern concepts of HDL biology, including: the geometric structure of HDL linking the core radius with the number of ApoA-I molecules on it, and the regeneration of lipid-poor ApoA-I from spherical HDL due to remodeling processes. The ODE model has been calibrated using data from the literature and validated by simulating additional experiments not used in the calibration. Using a virtual population, we show that the model provides possible explanations for a number of well-known relationships in cholesterol metabolism, including the epidemiological relationship between HDL-C and CVD risk and the correlations between some HDL-related lipoprotein markers. In particular, the model has been used to explore two HDL-C raising target modulations, Cholesteryl Ester Transfer Protein (CETP) inhibition and ATP-binding cassette transporter member 1 (ABCA1) up-regulation. It predicts that while CETP inhibition would not result in an increased RCT rate, ABCA1 up-regulation should increase both HDL-C and RCT rate. Furthermore, the model predicts the two target modulations result in distinct changes in the lipoprotein measures. Finally, the model also allows for an evaluation of two candidate biomarkers for in-vivo whole-body ABCA1 activity: the absolute concentration and the % lipid-poor ApoA-I. These findings illustrate the potential utility of the model in drug development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mucosa of the intestinal tract represents a finely tuned system where tissue structure strongly influences, and is turn influenced by, its function as both an absorptive surface and a defensive barrier. Mucosal architecture and histology plays a key role in the diagnosis, characterization and pathophysiology of a host of gastrointestinal diseases. Inflammation is a significant factor in the pathogenesis in many gastrointestinal diseases, and is perhaps the most clinically significant control factor governing the maintenance of the mucosal architecture by morphogenic pathways. We propose that appropriate characterization of the role of inflammation as a controller of enteric mucosal tissue patterning requires understanding the underlying cellular and molecular dynamics that determine the epithelial crypt-villus architecture across a range of conditions from health to disease. Towards this end we have developed the Spatially Explicit General-purpose Model of Enteric Tissue (SEGMEnT) to dynamically represent existing knowledge of the behavior of enteric epithelial tissue as influenced by inflammation with the ability to generate a variety of pathophysiological processes within a common platform and from a common knowledge base. In addition to reproducing healthy ileal mucosal dynamics as well as a series of morphogen knock-out/inhibition experiments, SEGMEnT provides insight into a range of clinically relevant cellular-molecular mechanisms, such as a putative role for Phosphotase and tensin homolog/phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PTEN/PI3K) as a key point of crosstalk between inflammation and morphogenesis, the protective role of enterocyte sloughing in enteric ischemia-reperfusion and chronic low level inflammation as a driver for colonic metaplasia. These results suggest that SEGMEnT can serve as an integrating platform for the study of inflammation in gastrointestinal disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Candida albicans bloodstream infection is increasingly frequent and can result in disseminated candidiasis associated with high mortality rates. To analyze the innate immune response against C. albicans, fungal cells were added to human whole-blood samples. After inoculation, C. albicans started to filament and predominantly associate with neutrophils, whereas only a minority of fungal cells became attached to monocytes. While many parameters of host-pathogen interaction were accessible to direct experimental quantification in the whole-blood infection assay, others were not. To overcome these limitations, we generated a virtual infection model that allowed detailed and quantitative predictions on the dynamics of host-pathogen interaction. Experimental time-resolved data were simulated using a state-based modeling approach combined with the Monte Carlo method of simulated annealing to obtain quantitative predictions on a priori unknown transition rates and to identify the main axis of antifungal immunity. Results clearly demonstrated a predominant role of neutrophils, mediated by phagocytosis and intracellular killing as well as the release of antifungal effector molecules upon activation, resulting in extracellular fungicidal activity. Both mechanisms together account for almost of C. albicans killing, clearly proving that beside being present in larger numbers than other leukocytes, neutrophils functionally dominate the immune response against C. albicans in human blood. A fraction of C. albicans cells escaped phagocytosis and remained extracellular and viable for up to four hours. This immune escape was independent of filamentation and fungal activity and not linked to exhaustion or inactivation of innate immune cells. The occurrence of C. albicans cells being resistant against phagocytosis may account for the high proportion of dissemination in C. albicans bloodstream infection. Taken together, iterative experiment–model–experiment cycles allowed quantitative analyses of the interplay between host and pathogen in a complex environment like human blood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccination has proved highly effective in eliminating vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage and disease. However, the potential adverse effects of serotype replacement remain a major concern when implementing routine childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination programmes. Applying a concise predictive model, we present a ready-to-use quantitative tool to investigate the implications of serotype replacement on the net effectiveness of vaccination against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and to guide in the selection of optimal vaccine serotype compositions. We utilise pre-vaccination data on pneumococcal carriage and IPD and assume partial or complete elimination of vaccine-type carriage, its replacement by non-vaccine-type carriage, and stable case-to-carrier ratios (probability of IPD per carriage episode). The model predicts that the post-vaccination IPD incidences in Finland for currently available vaccine serotype compositions can eventually decrease among the target age group of children <5 years of age by 75%. However, due to replacement through herd effects, the decrease among the older population is predicted to be much less (20–40%). We introduce a sequential algorithm for the search of optimal serotype compositions and assess the robustness of inferences to uncertainties in data and assumptions about carriage and IPD. The optimal serotype composition depends on the age group of interest and some serotypes may be highly beneficial vaccine types in one age category (e.g. 6B in children), while being disadvantageous in another. The net effectiveness will be improved only if the added serotype has a higher case-to-carrier ratio than the average case-to-carrier ratio of the current non-vaccine types and the degree of improvement in effectiveness depends on the carriage incidence of the serotype. The serotype compositions of currently available pneumococcal vaccines are not optimal and the effectiveness of vaccination in the population at large could be improved by including new serotypes in the vaccine (e.g. 22 and 9N). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major challenge in interpreting the large volume of mutation data identified by next-generation sequencing (NGS) is to distinguish driver mutations from neutral passenger mutations to facilitate the identification of targetable genes and new drugs. Current approaches are primarily based on mutation frequencies of single-genes, which lack the power to detect infrequently mutated driver genes and ignore functional interconnection and regulation among cancer genes. We propose a novel mutation network method, VarWalker, to prioritize driver genes in large scale cancer mutation data. VarWalker fits generalized additive models for each sample based on sample-specific mutation profiles and builds on the joint frequency of both mutation genes and their close interactors. These interactors are selected and optimized using the Random Walk with Restart algorithm in a protein-protein interaction network. We applied the method in >300 tumor genomes in two large-scale NGS benchmark datasets: 183 lung adenocarcinoma samples and 121 melanoma samples. In each cancer, we derived a consensus mutation subnetwork containing significantly enriched consensus cancer genes and cancer-related functional pathways. These cancer-specific mutation networks were then validated using independent datasets for each cancer. Importantly, VarWalker prioritizes well-known, infrequently mutated genes, which are shown to interact with highly recurrently mutated genes yet have been ignored by conventional single-gene-based approaches. Utilizing VarWalker, we demonstrated that network-assisted approaches can be effectively adapted to facilitate the detection of cancer driver genes in NGS data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cancer cells depend on transcription of telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT). Many transcription factors affect TERT, though regulation occurs in context of a broader network. Network effects on telomerase regulation have not been investigated, though deeper understanding of TERT transcription requires a systems view. However, control over individual interactions in complex networks is not easily achievable. Mathematical modelling provides an attractive approach for analysis of complex systems and some models may prove useful in systems pharmacology approaches to drug discovery. In this report, we used transfection screening to test interactions among 14 TERT regulatory transcription factors and their respective promoters in ovarian cancer cells. The results were used to generate a network model of TERT transcription and to implement a dynamic Boolean model whose steady states were analysed. Modelled effects of signal transduction inhibitors successfully predicted TERT repression by Src-family inhibitor SU6656 and lack of repression by ERK inhibitor FR180204, results confirmed by RT-QPCR analysis of endogenous TERT expression in treated cells. Modelled effects of GSK3 inhibitor 6-bromoindirubin-3′-oxime (BIO) predicted unstable TERT repression dependent on noise and expression of JUN, corresponding with observations from a previous study. MYC expression is critical in TERT activation in the model, consistent with its well known function in endogenous TERT regulation. Loss of MYC caused complete TERT suppression in our model, substantially rescued only by co-suppression of AR. Interestingly expression was easily rescued under modelled Ets-factor gain of function, as occurs in TERT promoter mutation. RNAi targeting AR, JUN, MXD1, SP3, or TP53, showed that AR suppression does rescue endogenous TERT expression following MYC knockdown in these cells and SP3 or TP53 siRNA also cause partial recovery. The model therefore successfully predicted several aspects of TERT regulation including previously unknown mechanisms. An extrapolation suggests that a dominant stimulatory system may programme TERT for transcriptional stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen progress in the development of statistically rigorous frameworks to infer outbreak transmission trees (“who infected whom”) from epidemiological and genetic data. Making use of pathogen genome sequences in such analyses remains a challenge, however, with a variety of heuristic approaches having been explored to date. We introduce a statistical method exploiting both pathogen sequences and collection dates to unravel the dynamics of densely sampled outbreaks. Our approach identifies likely transmission events and infers dates of infections, unobserved cases and separate introductions of the disease. It also proves useful for inferring numbers of secondary infections and identifying heterogeneous infectivity and super-spreaders. After testing our approach using simulations, we illustrate the method with the analysis of the beginning of the 2003 Singaporean outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), providing new insights into the early stage of this epidemic. Our approach is the first tool for disease outbreak reconstruction from genetic data widely available as free software, the R package outbreaker. It is applicable to various densely sampled epidemics, and improves previous approaches by detecting unobserved and imported cases, as well as allowing multiple introductions of the pathogen. Because of its generality, we believe this method will become a tool of choice for the analysis of densely sampled disease outbreaks, and will form a rigorous framework for subsequent methodological developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the discovery of tumour initiating cells (TICs) in solid tumours, studies focussing on their role in cancer initiation and progression have abounded. The biological interrogation of these cells continues to yield volumes of information on their pro-tumourigenic behaviour, but actionable generalised conclusions have been scarce. Further, new information suggesting a dependence of tumour composition and growth on the microenvironment has yet to be studied theoretically. To address this point, we created a hybrid, discrete/continuous computational cellular automaton model of a generalised stem-cell driven tissue with a simple microenvironment. Using the model we explored the phenotypic traits inherent to the tumour initiating cells and the effect of the microenvironment on tissue growth. We identify the regions in phenotype parameter space where TICs are able to cause a disruption in homeostasis, leading to tissue overgrowth and tumour maintenance. As our parameters and model are non-specific, they could apply to any tissue TIC and do not assume specific genetic mutations. Targeting these phenotypic traits could represent a generalizable therapeutic strategy across cancer types. Further, we find that the microenvironmental variable does not strongly affect the outcomes, suggesting a need for direct feedback from the microenvironment onto stem-cell behaviour in future modelling endeavours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Awareness that disease susceptibility is not only dependent on genetic make up, but can be affected by lifestyle decisions, has brought more attention to the role of diet. However, food is often treated as a black box, or the focus is limited to few, well-studied compounds, such as polyphenols, lipids and nutrients. In this work, we applied text mining and Naïve Bayes classification to assemble the knowledge space of food-phytochemical and food-disease associations, where we distinguish between disease prevention/amelioration and disease progression. We subsequently searched for frequently occurring phytochemical-disease pairs and we identified 20,654 phytochemicals from 16,102 plants associated to 1,592 human disease phenotypes. We selected colon cancer as a case study and analyzed our results in three directions; i) one stop legacy knowledge-shop for the effect of food on disease, ii) discovery of novel bioactive compounds with drug-like properties, and iii) discovery of novel health benefits from foods. This works represents a systematized approach to the association of food with health effect, and provides the phytochemical layer of information for nutritional systems biology research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A few broadly neutralizing antibodies, isolated from HIV-1 infected individuals, recognize epitopes in the membrane proximal external region (MPER) of gp41 that are transiently exposed during viral entry. The best characterized, 4E10 and 2F5, are polyreactive, binding to the viral membrane and their epitopes in the MPER. We present a model to calculate, for any antibody concentration, the probability that during the pre-hairpin intermediate, the transient period when the epitopes are first exposed, a bound antibody will disable a trivalent gp41 before fusion is complete. When 4E10 or 2F5 bind to the MPER, a conformational change is induced that results in a stably bound complex. The model predicts that for these antibodies to be effective at neutralization, the time to disable an epitope must be shorter than the time the antibody remains bound in this conformation, about five minutes or less for 4E10 and 2F5. We investigate the role of avidity in neutralization and show that 2F5 IgG, but not 4E10, is much more effective at neutralization than its Fab fragment. We attribute this to 2F5 interacting more stably than 4E10 with the viral membrane. We use the model to elucidate the parameters that determine the ability of these antibodies to disable epitopes and propose an extension of the model to analyze neutralization data. The extended model predicts the dependencies of for neutralization on the rate constants that characterize antibody binding, the rate of fusion of gp41, and the number of gp41 bridging the virus and target cell at the start of the pre-hairpin intermediate. Analysis of neutralization experiments indicate that only a small number of gp41 bridges must be disabled to prevent fusion. However, the model cannot determine the exact number from neutralization experiments alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Innate and type 1 cell-mediated cytotoxic immunity function as important extracellular control mechanisms that maintain cellular homeostasis. Interleukin-12 (IL12) is an important cytokine that links innate immunity with type 1 cell-mediated cytotoxic immunity. We recently observed in vitro that tumor-derived Wnt-inducible signaling protein-1 (WISP1) exerts paracrine action to suppress IL12 signaling. The objective of this retrospective study was three fold: 1) to determine whether a gene signature associated with type 1 cell-mediated cytotoxic immunity was correlated with overall survival, 2) to determine whether WISP1 expression is increased in invasive breast cancer, and 3) to determine whether a gene signature consistent with inhibition of IL12 signaling correlates with WISP1 expression. Clinical information and mRNA expression for genes associated with anti-tumor immunity were obtained from the invasive breast cancer arm of the Cancer Genome Atlas study. Patient cohorts were identified using hierarchical clustering. The immune signatures associated with the patient cohorts were interpreted using model-based inference of immune polarization. Reverse phase protein array, tissue microarray, and quantitative flow cytometry in breast cancer cell lines were used to validate observed differences in gene expression. We found that type 1 cell-mediated cytotoxic immunity was correlated with increased survival in patients with invasive breast cancer, especially in patients with invasive triple negative breast cancer. Oncogenic transformation in invasive breast cancer was associated with an increase in WISP1. The gene expression signature in invasive breast cancer was consistent with WISP1 as a paracrine inhibitor of type 1 cell-mediated immunity through inhibiting IL12 signaling and promoting type 2 immunity. Moreover, model-based inference helped identify appropriate immune signatures that can be used as design constraints in genetically engineering better pre-clinical models of breast cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health institutions may choose to screen newly admitted patients for the presence of disease in order to reduce disease prevalence within the institution. Screening is costly, and institutions must judiciously choose which patients they wish to screen based on the dynamics of disease transmission. Since potentially infected patients move between different health institutions, the screening and treatment decisions of one institution will affect the optimal decisions of others; an institution might choose to “free-ride” off the screening and treatment decisions of neighboring institutions. We develop a theoretical model of the strategic decision problem facing a health care institution choosing to screen newly admitted patients. The model incorporates an SIS compartmental model of disease transmission into a game theoretic model of strategic decision-making. Using this setup, we are able to analyze how optimal screening is influenced by disease parameters, such as the efficacy of treatment, the disease recovery rate and the movement of patients. We find that the optimal screening level is lower for diseases that have more effective treatments. Our model also allows us to analyze how the optimal screening level varies with the number of decision makers involved in the screening process. We show that when institutions are more autonomous in selecting whom to screen, they will choose to screen at a lower rate than when screening decisions are more centralized. Results also suggest that centralized screening decisions have a greater impact on disease prevalence when the availability or efficacy of treatment is low. Our model provides insight into the factors one should consider when choosing whether to set a mandated screening policy. We find that screening mandates set at a centralized level (i.e. state or national) will have a greater impact on the control of infectious disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electrical activity plays a pivotal role in glucose-stimulated insulin secretion from pancreatic -cells. Recent findings have shown that the electrophysiological characteristics of human -cells differ from their rodent counterparts. We show that the electrophysiological responses in human -cells to a range of ion channels antagonists are heterogeneous. In some cells, inhibition of small-conductance potassium currents has no effect on action potential firing, while it increases the firing frequency dramatically in other cells. Sodium channel block can sometimes reduce action potential amplitude, sometimes abolish electrical activity, and in some cells even change spiking electrical activity to rapid bursting. We show that, in contrast to L-type -channels, P/Q-type -currents are not necessary for action potential generation, and, surprisingly, a P/Q-type -channel antagonist even accelerates action potential firing. By including SK-channels and dynamics in a previous mathematical model of electrical activity in human -cells, we investigate the heterogeneous and nonintuitive electrophysiological responses to ion channel antagonists, and use our findings to obtain insight in previously published insulin secretion measurements. Using our model we also study paracrine signals, and simulate slow oscillations by adding a glycolytic oscillatory component to the electrophysiological model. The heterogenous electrophysiological responses in human -cells must be taken into account for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying insulin secretion in health and disease, and as shown here, the interdisciplinary combination of experiments and modeling increases our understanding of human -cell physiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contact structure between hosts shapes disease spread. Most network-based models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts between two individuals. However, this assumption is known to be at odds with the data for many networks (e.g. sexual contact networks) and to have a critical influence on epidemics' behavior. One of the reasons why models usually ignore heterogeneity in transmission is that we currently lack tools to analyze weighted networks, such that most studies rely on numerical simulations. Here, we present a novel framework to estimate key epidemiological variables, such as the rate of early epidemic expansion () and the basic reproductive ratio (), from joint probability distributions of number of partners (contacts) and number of interaction events through which contacts are weighted. These distributions are much easier to infer than the exact shape of the network, which makes the approach widely applicable. The framework also allows for a derivation of the full time course of epidemic prevalence and contact behaviour, which we validate with numerical simulations on networks. Overall, incorporating more realistic contact networks into epidemiological models can improve our understanding of the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beat-to-beat variability of repolarization duration (BVR) is an intrinsic characteristic of cardiac function and a better marker of proarrhythmia than repolarization prolongation alone. The ionic mechanisms underlying baseline BVR in physiological conditions, its rate dependence, and the factors contributing to increased BVR in pathologies remain incompletely understood. Here, we employed computer modeling to provide novel insights into the subcellular mechanisms of BVR under physiological conditions and during simulated drug-induced repolarization prolongation, mimicking long-QT syndromes type 1, 2, and 3. We developed stochastic implementations of 13 major ionic currents and fluxes in a model of canine ventricular-myocyte electrophysiology. Combined stochastic gating of these components resulted in short- and long-term variability, consistent with experimental data from isolated canine ventricular myocytes. The model indicated that the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations is rate dependent due to the rate dependence of action-potential (AP) duration (APD). This process (the “active” component) and the intrinsic nonlinear relationship between membrane current and APD (“intrinsic component”) contribute to the rate dependence of BVR. We identified a major role in physiological BVR for stochastic gating of the persistent Na+ current (INa) and rapidly activating delayed-rectifier K+ current (IKr). Inhibition of IKr or augmentation of INa significantly increased BVR, whereas subsequent β-adrenergic receptor stimulation reduced it, similar to experimental findings in isolated myocytes. In contrast, β-adrenergic stimulation increased BVR in simulated long-QT syndrome type 1. In addition to stochastic channel gating, AP morphology, APD, and beat-to-beat variations in Ca2+ were found to modulate single-cell BVR. Cell-to-cell coupling decreased BVR and this was more pronounced when a model cell with increased BVR was coupled to a model cell with normal BVR. In conclusion, our results provide new insights into the ionic mechanisms underlying BVR and suggest that BVR reflects multiple potentially proarrhythmic parameters, including increased ion-channel stochasticity, prolonged APD, and abnormal Ca2+ handling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions among multiple infectious agents are increasingly recognized as a fundamental issue in the understanding of key questions in public health regarding pathogen emergence, maintenance, and evolution. The full description of host-multipathogen systems is, however, challenged by the multiplicity of factors affecting the interaction dynamics and the resulting competition that may occur at different scales, from the within-host scale to the spatial structure and mobility of the host population. Here we study the dynamics of two competing pathogens in a structured host population and assess the impact of the mobility pattern of hosts on the pathogen competition. We model the spatial structure of the host population in terms of a metapopulation network and focus on two strains imported locally in the system and having the same transmission potential but different infectious periods. We find different scenarios leading to competitive success of either one of the strain or to the codominance of both strains in the system. The dominance of the strain characterized by the shorter or longer infectious period depends exclusively on the structure of the population and on the the mobility of hosts across patches. The proposed modeling framework allows the integration of other relevant epidemiological, environmental and demographic factors, opening the path to further mathematical and computational studies of the dynamics of multipathogen systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The field of medical systems biology aims to advance understanding of molecular mechanisms that drive disease progression and to translate this knowledge into therapies to effectively treat diseases. A challenging task is the investigation of long-term effects of a (pharmacological) treatment, to establish its applicability and to identify potential side effects. We present a new modeling approach, called Analysis of Dynamic Adaptations in Parameter Trajectories (ADAPT), to analyze the long-term effects of a pharmacological intervention. A concept of time-dependent evolution of model parameters is introduced to study the dynamics of molecular adaptations. The progression of these adaptations is predicted by identifying necessary dynamic changes in the model parameters to describe the transition between experimental data obtained during different stages of the treatment. The trajectories provide insight in the affected underlying biological systems and identify the molecular events that should be studied in more detail to unravel the mechanistic basis of treatment outcome. Modulating effects caused by interactions with the proteome and transcriptome levels, which are often less well understood, can be captured by the time-dependent descriptions of the parameters. ADAPT was employed to identify metabolic adaptations induced upon pharmacological activation of the liver X receptor (LXR), a potential drug target to treat or prevent atherosclerosis. The trajectories were investigated to study the cascade of adaptations. This provided a counter-intuitive insight concerning the function of scavenger receptor class B1 (SR-B1), a receptor that facilitates the hepatic uptake of cholesterol. Although activation of LXR promotes cholesterol efflux and -excretion, our computational analysis showed that the hepatic capacity to clear cholesterol was reduced upon prolonged treatment. This prediction was confirmed experimentally by immunoblotting measurements of SR-B1 in hepatic membranes. Next to the identification of potential unwanted side effects, we demonstrate how ADAPT can be used to design new target interventions to prevent these. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mechanism-based pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is the standard computational technique for simulating drug treatment of infectious diseases with the potential to enhance our understanding of drug treatment outcomes, drug deployment strategies, and dosing regimens. Standard methodologies assume only a single drug is used, it acts only in its unconverted form, and that oral drugs are instantaneously absorbed across the gut wall to their site of action. For drugs with short half-lives, this absorption period accounts for a significant period of their time in the body. Treatment of infectious diseases often uses combination therapies, so we refined and substantially extended the PK/PD methodologies to incorporate (i) time lags and drug concentration profiles resulting from absorption across the gut wall and, if required, conversion to another active form; (ii) multiple drugs within a treatment combination; (iii) differing modes of action of drugs in the combination: additive, synergistic, antagonistic; (iv) drugs converted to an active metabolite with a similar mode of action. This methodology was applied to a case study of two first-line malaria treatments based on artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs, artemether-lumefantrine and artesunate-mefloquine) where the likelihood of increased artemisinin tolerance/resistance has led to speculation on their continued long-term effectiveness. We note previous estimates of artemisinin kill rate were underestimated by a factor of seven, both the unconverted and converted form of the artemisinins kill parasites and the extended PK/PD methodology produced results consistent with field observations. The simulations predict that a potentially rapid decline in ACT effectiveness is likely to occur as artemisinin resistance spreads, emphasising the importance of containing the spread of artemisinin resistance before it results in widespread drug failure. We found that PK/PD data is generally very poorly reported in the malaria literature, severely reducing its value for subsequent re-application, and we make specific recommendations to improve this situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flow cytometry is the prototypical assay for multi-parameter single cell analysis, and is essential in vaccine and biomarker research for the enumeration of antigen-specific lymphocytes that are often found in extremely low frequencies (0.1% or less). Standard analysis of flow cytometry data relies on visual identification of cell subsets by experts, a process that is subjective and often difficult to reproduce. An alternative and more objective approach is the use of statistical models to identify cell subsets of interest in an automated fashion. Two specific challenges for automated analysis are to detect extremely low frequency event subsets without biasing the estimate by pre-processing enrichment, and the ability to align cell subsets across multiple data samples for comparative analysis. In this manuscript, we develop hierarchical modeling extensions to the Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model (DPGMM) approach we have previously described for cell subset identification, and show that the hierarchical DPGMM (HDPGMM) naturally generates an aligned data model that captures both commonalities and variations across multiple samples. HDPGMM also increases the sensitivity to extremely low frequency events by sharing information across multiple samples analyzed simultaneously. We validate the accuracy and reproducibility of HDPGMM estimates of antigen-specific T cells on clinically relevant reference peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) samples with known frequencies of antigen-specific T cells. These cell samples take advantage of retrovirally TCR-transduced T cells spiked into autologous PBMC samples to give a defined number of antigen-specific T cells detectable by HLA-peptide multimer binding. We provide open source software that can take advantage of both multiple processors and GPU-acceleration to perform the numerically-demanding computations. We show that hierarchical modeling is a useful probabilistic approach that can provide a consistent labeling of cell subsets and increase the sensitivity of rare event detection in the context of quantifying antigen-specific immune responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most chronic viral infections are managed with small molecule therapies that inhibit replication but are not curative because non-replicating viral forms can persist despite decades of suppressive treatment. There are therefore numerous strategies in development to eradicate all non-replicating viruses from the body. We are currently engineering DNA cleavage enzymes that specifically target hepatitis B virus covalently closed circular DNA (HBV cccDNA), the episomal form of the virus that persists despite potent antiviral therapies. DNA cleavage enzymes, including homing endonucleases or meganucleases, zinc-finger nucleases (ZFNs), TAL effector nucleases (TALENs), and CRISPR-associated system 9 (Cas9) proteins, can disrupt specific regions of viral DNA. Because DNA repair is error prone, the virus can be neutralized after repeated cleavage events when a target sequence becomes mutated. DNA cleavage enzymes will be delivered as genes within viral vectors that enter hepatocytes. Here we develop mathematical models that describe the delivery and intracellular activity of DNA cleavage enzymes. Model simulations predict that high vector to target cell ratio, limited removal of delivery vectors by humoral immunity, and avid binding between enzyme and its DNA target will promote the highest level of cccDNA disruption. Development of de novo resistance to cleavage enzymes may occur if DNA cleavage and error prone repair does not render the viral episome replication incompetent: our model predicts that concurrent delivery of multiple enzymes which target different vital cccDNA regions, or sequential delivery of different enzymes, are both potentially useful strategies for avoiding multi-enzyme resistance. The underlying dynamics of cccDNA persistence are unlikely to impact the probability of cure provided that antiviral therapy is given concurrently during eradication trials. We conclude by describing experiments that can be used to validate the model, which will in turn provide vital information for dose selection for potential curative trials in animals and ultimately humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is one of the most prevalent and highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorders in humans. There is significant evidence that the onset and severity of ASD is governed in part by complex genetic mechanisms affecting the normal development of the brain. To date, a number of genes have been associated with ASD. However, the temporal and spatial co-expression of these genes in the brain remain unclear. To address this issue, we examined the co-expression network of 26 autism genes from AutDB (http://mindspec.org/autdb.html), in the framework of 3,041 genes whose expression energies have the highest correlation between the coronal and sagittal images from the Allen Mouse Brain Atlas database (http://mouse.brain-map.org). These data were derived from in situ hybridization experiments conducted on male, 56-day old C57BL/6J mice co-registered to the Allen Reference Atlas, and were used to generate a normalized co-expression matrix indicating the cosine similarity between expression vectors of genes in this database. The network formed by the autism-associated genes showed a higher degree of co-expression connectivity than seen for the other genes in this dataset (Kolmogorov–Smirnov P = 5×10−28). Using Monte Carlo simulations, we identified two cliques of co-expressed genes that were significantly enriched with autism genes (A Bonferroni corrected P<0.05). Genes in both these cliques were significantly over-expressed in the cerebellar cortex (P = 1×10−5) suggesting possible implication of this brain region in autism. In conclusion, our study provides a detailed profiling of co-expression patterns of autism genes in the mouse brain, and suggests specific brain regions and new candidate genes that could be involved in autism etiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF) continue to cause a considerable public health burden globally and are co-endemic in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa. These infections are transmitted by the same mosquito species which raises important questions about optimal vector control strategies in co-endemic regions, as well as the effect of the presence of each infection on endemicity of the other; there is currently little consensus on the latter. The need for comprehensive modelling studies to address such questions is therefore significant, yet very few have been undertaken to date despite the recognised explanatory power of reliable dynamic mathematical models. Here, we develop a malaria-LF co-infection modelling framework that accounts for two key interactions between these infections, namely the increase in vector mortality as LF mosquito prevalence increases and the antagonistic Th1/Th2 immune response that occurs in co-infected hosts. We consider the crucial interplay between these interactions on the resulting endemic prevalence when introducing each infection in regions where the other is already endemic (e.g. due to regional environmental change), and the associated timescale for such changes, as well as effects on the basic reproduction number R0 of each disease. We also highlight potential perverse effects of vector controls on human infection prevalence in co-endemic regions, noting that understanding such effects is critical in designing optimal integrated control programmes. Hence, as well as highlighting where better data are required to more reliably address such questions, we provide an important framework that will form the basis of future scenario analysis tools used to plan and inform policy decisions on intervention measures in different transmission settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the clinical ubiquity of anesthesia, the molecular basis of anesthetic action is poorly understood. Amongst the many molecular targets proposed to contribute to anesthetic effects, the voltage gated sodium channels (VGSCs) should also be considered relevant, as they have been shown to be sensitive to all general anesthetics tested thus far. However, binding sites for VGSCs have not been identified. Moreover, the mechanism of inhibition is still largely unknown. The recently reported atomic structures of several members of the bacterial VGSC family offer the opportunity to shed light on the mechanism of action of anesthetics on these important ion channels. To this end, we have performed a molecular dynamics “flooding” simulation on a membrane-bound structural model of the archetypal bacterial VGSC, NaChBac in a closed pore conformation. This computation allowed us to identify binding sites and access pathways for the commonly used volatile general anesthetic, isoflurane. Three sites have been characterized with binding affinities in a physiologically relevant range. Interestingly, one of the most favorable sites is in the pore of the channel, suggesting that the binding sites of local and general anesthetics may overlap. Surprisingly, even though the activation gate of the channel is closed, and therefore the pore and the aqueous compartment at the intracellular side are disconnected, we observe binding of isoflurane in the central cavity. Several sampled association and dissociation events in the central cavity provide consistent support to the hypothesis that the “fenestrations” present in the membrane-embedded region of the channel act as the long-hypothesized hydrophobic drug access pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epithelial cells in the colon are arranged in cylindrical structures called crypts in which cellular proliferation and migration are tightly regulated. We hypothesized that the proliferation patterns of cells may determine the stability of crypts as well as the rates of somatic evolution towards colorectal tumorigenesis. Here, we propose a linear process model of colonic epithelial cells that explicitly takes into account the proliferation kinetics of cells as a function of cell position within the crypt. Our results indicate that proliferation kinetics has significant influence on the speed of cell movement, kinetics of mutation propagation, and sensitivity of the system to selective effects of mutated cells. We found that, of all proliferation curves tested, those with mitotic activities concentrated near the stem cell, including the actual proliferation kinetics determined in in vivo labeling experiments, have a greater ability of delaying the rate of mutation accumulation in colonic stem cells compared to hypothetical proliferation curves with mitotic activities focused near the top of the crypt column. Our model can be used to investigate the dynamics of proliferation and mutation accumulation in spatially arranged tissues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapidly characterizing the amplitude and variability in transmissibility of novel human influenza strains as they emerge is a key public health priority. However, comparison of early estimates of the basic reproduction number during the 2009 pandemic were challenging because of inconsistent data sources and methods. Here, we define and analyze influenza-like-illness (ILI) case data from 2009–2010 for the 50 largest spatially distinct US military installations (military population defined by zip code, MPZ). We used publicly available data from non-military sources to show that patterns of ILI incidence in many of these MPZs closely followed the pattern of their enclosing civilian population. After characterizing the broad patterns of incidence (e.g. single-peak, double-peak), we defined a parsimonious SIR-like model with two possible values for intrinsic transmissibility across three epochs. We fitted the parameters of this model to data from all 50 MPZs, finding them to be reasonably well clustered with a median (mean) value of 1.39 (1.57) and standard deviation of 0.41. An increasing temporal trend in transmissibility (, p-value: 0.013) during the period of our study was robust to the removal of high transmissibility outliers and to the removal of the smaller 20 MPZs. Our results demonstrate the utility of rapidly available – and consistent – data from multiple populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of neutralizing anti-drug-antibodies to the Factor VIII protein-therapeutic is currently the most significant impediment to the effective management of hemophilia A. Common non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (ns-SNPs) in the F8 gene occur as six haplotypes in the human population (denoted H1 to H6) of which H3 and H4 have been associated with an increased risk of developing anti-drug antibodies. There is evidence that CD4+ T-cell response is essential for the development of anti-drug antibodies and such a response requires the presentation of the peptides by the MHC-class-II (MHC-II) molecules of the patient. We measured the binding and half-life of peptide-MHC-II complexes using synthetic peptides from regions of the Factor VIII protein where ns-SNPs occur and showed that these wild type peptides form stable complexes with six common MHC-II alleles, representing 46.5% of the North American population. Next, we compared the affinities computed by NetMHCIIpan, a neural network-based algorithm for MHC-II peptide binding prediction, to the experimentally measured values and concluded that these are in good agreement (area under the ROC-curve of 0.778 to 0.972 for the six MHC-II variants). Using a computational binding predictor, we were able to expand our analysis to (a) include all wild type peptides spanning each polymorphic position; and (b) consider more MHC-II variants, thus allowing for a better estimation of the risk for clinical manifestation of anti-drug antibodies in the entire population (or a specific sub-population). Analysis of these computational data confirmed that peptides which have the wild type sequence at positions where the polymorphisms associated with haplotypes H3, H4 and H5 occur bind MHC-II proteins significantly more than a negative control. Taken together, the experimental and computational results suggest that wild type peptides from polymorphic regions of FVIII constitute potential T-cell epitopes and thus could explain the increased incidence of anti-drug antibodies in hemophilia A patients with haplotypes H3 and H4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classical approaches to estimate vaccine efficacy are based on the assumption that a person's risk of infection does not depend on the infection status of others. This assumption is untenable for infectious disease data where such dependencies abound. We present a novel approach to estimating vaccine efficacy in a Bayesian framework using disease transmission models. The methodology is applied to outbreaks of mumps in primary schools in the Netherlands. The total study population consisted of 2,493 children in ten primary schools, of which 510 (20%) were known to have been infected, and 832 (33%) had unknown infection status. The apparent vaccination coverage ranged from 12% to 93%, and the apparent infection attack rate varied from 1% to 76%. Our analyses show that vaccination reduces the probability of infection per contact substantially but not perfectly ( = 0.933; 95CrI: 0.908–0.954). Mumps virus appears to be moderately transmissible in the school setting, with each case yielding an estimated 2.5 secondary cases in an unvaccinated population ( = 2.49; 95%CrI: 2.36–2.63), resulting in moderate estimates of the critical vaccination coverage (64.2%; 95%CrI: 61.7–66.7%). The indirect benefits of vaccination are highest in populations with vaccination coverage just below the critical vaccination coverage. In these populations, it is estimated that almost two infections can be prevented per vaccination. We discuss the implications for the optimal control of mumps in heterogeneously vaccinated populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bacterial whole genome sequencing offers the prospect of rapid and high precision investigation of infectious disease outbreaks. Close genetic relationships between microorganisms isolated from different infected cases suggest transmission is a strong possibility, whereas transmission between cases with genetically distinct bacterial isolates can be excluded. However, undetected mixed infections—infection with ≥2 unrelated strains of the same species where only one is sequenced—potentially impairs exclusion of transmission with certainty, and may therefore limit the utility of this technique. We investigated the problem by developing a computationally efficient method for detecting mixed infection without the need for resource-intensive independent sequencing of multiple bacterial colonies. Given the relatively low density of single nucleotide polymorphisms within bacterial sequence data, direct reconstruction of mixed infection haplotypes from current short-read sequence data is not consistently possible. We therefore use a two-step maximum likelihood-based approach, assuming each sample contains up to two infecting strains. We jointly estimate the proportion of the infection arising from the dominant and minor strains, and the sequence divergence between these strains. In cases where mixed infection is confirmed, the dominant and minor haplotypes are then matched to a database of previously sequenced local isolates. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm with in silico and in vitro mixed infection experiments, and apply it to transmission of an important healthcare-associated pathogen, Clostridium difficile. Using hospital ward movement data in a previously described stochastic transmission model, 15 pairs of cases enriched for likely transmission events associated with mixed infection were selected. Our method identified four previously undetected mixed infections, and a previously undetected transmission event, but no direct transmission between the pairs of cases under investigation. These results demonstrate that mixed infections can be detected without additional sequencing effort, and this will be important in assessing the extent of cryptic transmission in our hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women and is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths annually. As with most cancers, it is a heterogeneous disease and different breast cancer subtypes are treated differently. Understanding the difference in prognosis for breast cancer based on its molecular and phenotypic features is one avenue for improving treatment by matching the proper treatment with molecular subtypes of the disease. In this work, we employed a competition-based approach to modeling breast cancer prognosis using large datasets containing genomic and clinical information and an online real-time leaderboard program used to speed feedback to the modeling team and to encourage each modeler to work towards achieving a higher ranked submission. We find that machine learning methods combined with molecular features selected based on expert prior knowledge can improve survival predictions compared to current best-in-class methodologies and that ensemble models trained across multiple user submissions systematically outperform individual models within the ensemble. We also find that model scores are highly consistent across multiple independent evaluations. This study serves as the pilot phase of a much larger competition open to the whole research community, with the goal of understanding general strategies for model optimization using clinical and molecular profiling data and providing an objective, transparent system for assessing prognostic models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is acknowledged that some obesity trajectories are set early in life, and that rapid weight gain in infancy is a risk factor for later development of obesity. Identifying modifiable factors associated with early rapid weight gain is a prerequisite for curtailing the growing worldwide obesity epidemic. Recently, much attention has been given to findings indicating that gut microbiota may play a role in obesity development. We aim at identifying how the development of early gut microbiota is associated with expected infant growth. We developed a novel procedure that allows for the identification of longitudinal gut microbiota patterns (corresponding to the gut ecosystem developing), which are associated with an outcome of interest, while appropriately controlling for the false discovery rate. Our method identified developmental pathways of Staphylococcus species and Escherichia coli that were associated with expected growth, and traditional methods indicated that the detection of Bacteroides species at day 30 was associated with growth. Our method should have wide future applicability for studying gut microbiota, and is particularly important for translational considerations, as it is critical to understand the timing of microbiome transitions prior to attempting to manipulate gut microbiota in early life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many infectious disease processes such as emerging zoonoses and vaccine-preventable diseases, and infections occur as self-limited stuttering transmission chains. A mechanistic understanding of transmission is essential for characterizing the risk of emerging diseases and monitoring spatio-temporal dynamics. Thus methods for inferring and the degree of heterogeneity in transmission from stuttering chain data have important applications in disease surveillance and management. Previous researchers have used chain size distributions to infer , but estimation of the degree of individual-level variation in infectiousness (as quantified by the dispersion parameter, ) has typically required contact tracing data. Utilizing branching process theory along with a negative binomial offspring distribution, we demonstrate how maximum likelihood estimation can be applied to chain size data to infer both and the dispersion parameter that characterizes heterogeneity. While the maximum likelihood value for is a simple function of the average chain size, the associated confidence intervals are dependent on the inferred degree of transmission heterogeneity. As demonstrated for monkeypox data from the Democratic Republic of Congo, this impacts when a statistically significant change in is detectable. In addition, by allowing for superspreading events, inference of shifts the threshold above which a transmission chain should be considered anomalously large for a given value of (thus reducing the probability of false alarms about pathogen adaptation). Our analysis of monkeypox also clarifies the various ways that imperfect observation can impact inference of transmission parameters, and highlights the need to quantitatively evaluate whether observation is likely to significantly bias results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]