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Type 2 diabetes leads to premature death and reduced quality of life for 8% of Americans. Nutrition management is critical to maintaining glycemic control, yet it is difficult to achieve due to the high individual differences in glycemic response to nutrition. Anticipating glycemic impact of different meals can be challenging not only for individuals with diabetes, but also for expert diabetes educators. Personalized computational models that can accurately forecast an impact of a given meal on an individual’s blood glucose levels can serve as the engine for a new generation of decision support tools for individuals with diabetes. However, to be useful in practice, these computational engines need to generate accurate forecasts based on limited datasets consistent with typical self-monitoring practices of individuals with type 2 diabetes. This paper uses three forecasting machines: (i) data assimilation, a technique borrowed from atmospheric physics and engineering that uses Bayesian modeling to infuse data with human knowledge represented in a mechanistic model, to generate real-time, personalized, adaptable glucose forecasts; (ii) model averaging of data assimilation output; and (iii) dynamical Gaussian process model regression. The proposed data assimilation machine, the primary focus of the paper, uses a modified dual unscented Kalman filter to estimate states and parameters, personalizing the mechanistic models. Model selection is used to make a personalized model selection for the individual and their measurement characteristics. The data assimilation forecasts are empirically evaluated against actual postprandial glucose measurements captured by individuals with type 2 diabetes, and against predictions generated by experienced diabetes educators after reviewing a set of historical nutritional records and glucose measurements for the same individual. The evaluation suggests that the data assimilation forecasts compare well with specific glucose measurements and match or exceed in accuracy expert forecasts. We conclude by examining ways to present predictions as forecast-derived range quantities and evaluate the comparative advantages of these ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To eliminate and eradicate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), maximizing the effectiveness of active case finding is of key importance. The progression of the epidemic is largely influenced by the planning of these operations. This paper introduces and analyzes five models for predicting HAT prevalence in a given village based on past observed prevalence levels and past screening activities in that village. Based on the quality of prevalence level predictions in 143 villages in Kwamouth (DRC), and based on the theoretical foundation underlying the models, we consider variants of the Logistic Model—a model inspired by the SIS epidemic model—to be most suitable for predicting HAT prevalence levels. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of this model to predict the effects of planning policies for screening operations. Our analysis yields an analytical expression for the screening frequency required to reach eradication (zero prevalence) and a simple approach for determining the frequency required to reach elimination within a given time frame (one case per 10000). Furthermore, the model predictions suggest that annual screening is only expected to lead to eradication if at least half of the cases are detected during the screening rounds. This paper extends knowledge on control strategies for HAT and serves as a basis for further modeling and optimization studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systems biology models are used to understand complex biological and physiological systems. Interpretation of these models is an important part of developing this understanding. These models are often fit to experimental data in order to understand how the system has produced various phenomena or behaviour that are seen in the data. In this paper, we have outlined a framework that can be used to perform Bayesian analysis of complex systems biology models. In particular, we have focussed on analysing a systems biology of the brain using both simulated and measured data. By using a combination of sensitivity analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, we have shown that it is possible to obtain distributions of parameters that can better guard against misinterpretation of results, as compared to a maximum likelihood estimate based approach. This is done through analysis of simulated and experimental data. NIRS measurements were simulated using the same simulated systemic input data for the model in a ‘healthy’ and ‘impaired’ state. By analysing both of these datasets, we show that different parameter spaces can be distinguished and compared between different physiological states or conditions. Finally, we analyse experimental data using the new Bayesian framework and the previous maximum likelihood estimate approach, showing that the Bayesian approach provides a more complete understanding of the parameter space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging evidence has shown microRNAs (miRNAs) play an important role in human disease research. Identifying potential association among them is significant for the development of pathology, diagnose and therapy. However, only a tiny portion of all miRNA-disease pairs in the current datasets are experimentally validated. This prompts the development of high-precision computational methods to predict real interaction pairs. In this paper, we propose a new model of Logistic Model Tree for predicting miRNA-Disease Association (LMTRDA) by fusing multi-source information including miRNA sequences, miRNA functional similarity, disease semantic similarity, and known miRNA-disease associations. In particular, we introduce miRNA sequence information and extract its features using natural language processing technique for the first time in the miRNA-disease prediction model. In the cross-validation experiment, LMTRDA obtained 90.51% prediction accuracy with 92.55% sensitivity at the AUC of 90.54% on the HMDD V3.0 dataset. To further evaluate the performance of LMTRDA, we compared it with different classifier and feature descriptor models. In addition, we also validate the predictive ability of LMTRDA in human diseases including Breast Neoplasms, Breast Neoplasms and Lymphoma. As a result, 28, 27 and 26 out of the top 30 miRNAs associated with these diseases were verified by experiments in different kinds of case studies. These experimental results demonstrate that LMTRDA is a reliable model for predicting the association among miRNAs and diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robustly predicting outcome for cancer patients from gene expression is an important challenge on the road to better personalized treatment. Network-based outcome predictors (NOPs), which considers the cellular wiring diagram in the classification, hold much promise to improve performance, stability and interpretability of identified marker genes. Problematically, reports on the efficacy of NOPs are conflicting and for instance suggest that utilizing random networks performs on par to networks that describe biologically relevant interactions. In this paper we turn the prediction problem around: instead of using a given biological network in the NOP, we aim to identify the network of genes that truly improves outcome prediction. To this end, we propose SyNet, a gene network constructed ab initio from synergistic gene pairs derived from survival-labelled gene expression data. To obtain SyNet, we evaluate synergy for all 69 million pairwise combinations of genes resulting in a network that is specific to the dataset and phenotype under study and can be used to in a NOP model. We evaluated SyNet and 11 other networks on a compendium dataset of >4000 survival-labelled breast cancer samples. For this purpose, we used cross-study validation which more closely emulates real world application of these outcome predictors. We find that SyNet is the only network that truly improves performance, stability and interpretability in several existing NOPs. We show that SyNet overlaps significantly with existing gene networks, and can be confidently predicted (~85% AUC) from graph-topological descriptions of these networks, in particular the breast tissue-specific network. Due to its data-driven nature, SyNet is not biased to well-studied genes and thus facilitates post-hoc interpretation. We find that SyNet is highly enriched for known breast cancer genes and genes related to e.g. histological grade and tamoxifen resistance, suggestive of a role in determining breast cancer outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

B cells develop high affinity receptors during the course of affinity maturation, a cyclic process of mutation and selection. At the end of affinity maturation, a number of cells sharing the same ancestor (i.e. in the same “clonal family”) are released from the germinal center; their amino acid frequency profile reflects the allowed and disallowed substitutions at each position. These clonal-family-specific frequency profiles, called “substitution profiles”, are useful for studying the course of affinity maturation as well as for antibody engineering purposes. However, most often only a single sequence is recovered from each clonal family in a sequencing experiment, making it impossible to construct a clonal-family-specific substitution profile. Given the public release of many high-quality large B cell receptor datasets, one may ask whether it is possible to use such data in a prediction model for clonal-family-specific substitution profiles. In this paper, we present the method “Substitution Profiles Using Related Families” (SPURF), a penalized tensor regression framework that integrates information from a rich assemblage of datasets to predict the clonal-family-specific substitution profile for any single input sequence. Using this framework, we show that substitution profiles from similar clonal families can be leveraged together with simulated substitution profiles and germline gene sequence information to improve prediction. We fit this model on a large public dataset and validate the robustness of our approach on two external datasets. Furthermore, we provide a command-line tool in an open-source software package () implementing these ideas and providing easy prediction using our pre-fit models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a current interest in quantifying time-varying connectivity (TVC) based on neuroimaging data such as fMRI. Many methods have been proposed, and are being applied, revealing new insight into the brain’s dynamics. However, given that the ground truth for TVC in the brain is unknown, many concerns remain regarding the accuracy of proposed estimates. Since there exist many TVC methods it is difficult to assess differences in time-varying connectivity between studies. In this paper, we present tvc_benchmarker, which is a Python package containing four simulations to test TVC methods. Here, we evaluate five different methods that together represent a wide spectrum of current approaches to estimating TVC (sliding window, tapered sliding window, multiplication of temporal derivatives, spatial distance and jackknife correlation). These simulations were designed to test each method’s ability to track changes in covariance over time, which is a key property in TVC analysis. We found that all tested methods correlated positively with each other, but there were large differences in the strength of the correlations between methods. To facilitate comparisons with future TVC methods, we propose that the described simulations can act as benchmark tests for evaluation of methods. Using tvc_benchmarker researchers can easily add, compare and submit their own TVC methods to evaluate its performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-throughput data generation platforms, like mass-spectrometry, microarrays, and second-generation sequencing are susceptible to batch effects due to run-to-run variation in reagents, equipment, protocols, or personnel. Currently, batch correction methods are not commonly applied to microbiome sequencing datasets. In this paper, we compare different batch-correction methods applied to microbiome case-control studies. We introduce a model-free normalization procedure where features (i.e. bacterial taxa) in case samples are converted to percentiles of the equivalent features in control samples within a study prior to pooling data across studies. We look at how this percentile-normalization method compares to traditional meta-analysis methods for combining independent p-values and to limma and ComBat, widely used batch-correction models developed for RNA microarray data. Overall, we show that percentile-normalization is a simple, non-parametric approach for correcting batch effects and improving sensitivity in case-control meta-analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) in microbial organisms have the potential to vastly improve the way we understand, manage, and treat infectious diseases. Yet, microbial GWAS methods established thus far remain insufficiently able to capitalise on the growing wealth of bacterial and viral genetic sequence data. Facing clonal population structure and homologous recombination, existing GWAS methods struggle to achieve both the precision necessary to reject spurious findings and the power required to detect associations in microbes. In this paper, we introduce a novel phylogenetic approach that has been tailor-made for microbial GWAS, which is applicable to organisms ranging from purely clonal to frequently recombining, and to both binary and continuous phenotypes. Our approach is robust to the confounding effects of both population structure and recombination, while maintaining high statistical power to detect associations. Thorough testing via application to simulated data provides strong support for the power and specificity of our approach and demonstrates the advantages offered over alternative cluster-based and dimension-reduction methods. Two applications to Neisseria meningitidis illustrate the versatility and potential of our method, confirming previously-identified penicillin resistance loci and resulting in the identification of both well-characterised and novel drivers of invasive disease. Our method is implemented as an open-source R package called treeWAS which is freely available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic risk prediction is an important goal in human genetics research and precision medicine. Accurate prediction models will have great impacts on both disease prevention and early treatment strategies. Despite the identification of thousands of disease-associated genetic variants through genome wide association studies (GWAS), genetic risk prediction accuracy remains moderate for most diseases, which is largely due to the challenges in both identifying all the functionally relevant variants and accurately estimating their effect sizes in the presence of linkage disequilibrium. In this paper, we introduce AnnoPred, a principled framework that leverages diverse types of genomic and epigenomic functional annotations in genetic risk prediction for complex diseases. AnnoPred is trained using GWAS summary statistics in a Bayesian framework in which we explicitly model various functional annotations and allow for linkage disequilibrium estimated from reference genotype data. Compared with state-of-the-art risk prediction methods, AnnoPred achieves consistently improved prediction accuracy in both extensive simulations and real data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A complex disease has, by definition, multiple genetic causes. In theory, these causes could be identified individually, but their identification will likely benefit from informed use of anticipated interactions between causes. In addition, characterizing and understanding interactions must be considered key to revealing the etiology of any complex disease. Large-scale collaborative efforts are now paving the way for comprehensive studies of interaction. As a consequence, there is a need for methods with a computational efficiency sufficient for modern data sets as well as for improvements of statistical accuracy and power. Another issue is that, currently, the relation between different methods for interaction inference is in many cases not transparent, complicating the comparison and interpretation of results between different interaction studies. In this paper we present computationally efficient tests of interaction for the complete family of generalized linear models (GLMs). The tests can be applied for inference of single or multiple interaction parameters, but we show, by simulation, that jointly testing the full set of interaction parameters yields superior power and control of false positive rate. Based on these tests we also describe how to combine results from multiple independent studies of interaction in a meta-analysis. We investigate the impact of several assumptions commonly made when modeling interactions. We also show that, across the important class of models with a full set of interaction parameters, jointly testing the interaction parameters yields identical results. Further, we apply our method to genetic data for cardiovascular disease. This allowed us to identify a putative interaction involved in Lp(a) plasma levels between two ‘tag’ variants in the LPA locus (p = 2.42 ⋅ 10−09) as well as replicate the interaction (p = 6.97 ⋅ 10−07). Finally, our meta-analysis method is used in a small (N = 16,181) study of interactions in myocardial infarction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has recently been suggested that movement variability directly increases the speed of motor learning. Here we use computational modeling of motor adaptation to show that variability can have a broad range of effects on learning, both negative and positive. Experimentally, we also find contributing and decelerating effects. Lastly, through a meta-analysis of published papers, we verify that across a wide range of experiments, movement variability has no statistical relation with learning rate. While motor learning is a complex process that can be modeled, further research is needed to understand the relative importance of the involved factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shotgun metagenomic analysis of the human associated microbiome provides a rich set of microbial features for prediction and biomarker discovery in the context of human diseases and health conditions. However, the use of such high-resolution microbial features presents new challenges, and validated computational tools for learning tasks are lacking. Moreover, classification rules have scarcely been validated in independent studies, posing questions about the generality and generalization of disease-predictive models across cohorts. In this paper, we comprehensively assess approaches to metagenomics-based prediction tasks and for quantitative assessment of the strength of potential microbiome-phenotype associations. We develop a computational framework for prediction tasks using quantitative microbiome profiles, including species-level relative abundances and presence of strain-specific markers. A comprehensive meta-analysis, with particular emphasis on generalization across cohorts, was performed in a collection of 2424 publicly available metagenomic samples from eight large-scale studies. Cross-validation revealed good disease-prediction capabilities, which were in general improved by feature selection and use of strain-specific markers instead of species-level taxonomic abundance. In cross-study analysis, models transferred between studies were in some cases less accurate than models tested by within-study cross-validation. Interestingly, the addition of healthy (control) samples from other studies to training sets improved disease prediction capabilities. Some microbial species (most notably Streptococcus anginosus) seem to characterize general dysbiotic states of the microbiome rather than connections with a specific disease. Our results in modelling features of the “healthy” microbiome can be considered a first step toward defining general microbial dysbiosis. The software framework, microbiome profiles, and metadata for thousands of samples are publicly available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In pharmaceutical sciences, a crucial step of the drug discovery process is the identification of drug-target interactions. However, only a small portion of the drug-target interactions have been experimentally validated, as the experimental validation is laborious and costly. To improve the drug discovery efficiency, there is a great need for the development of accurate computational approaches that can predict potential drug-target interactions to direct the experimental verification. In this paper, we propose a novel drug-target interaction prediction algorithm, namely neighborhood regularized logistic matrix factorization (NRLMF). Specifically, the proposed NRLMF method focuses on modeling the probability that a drug would interact with a target by logistic matrix factorization, where the properties of drugs and targets are represented by drug-specific and target-specific latent vectors, respectively. Moreover, NRLMF assigns higher importance levels to positive observations (i.e., the observed interacting drug-target pairs) than negative observations (i.e., the unknown pairs). Because the positive observations are already experimentally verified, they are usually more trustworthy. Furthermore, the local structure of the drug-target interaction data has also been exploited via neighborhood regularization to achieve better prediction accuracy. We conducted extensive experiments over four benchmark datasets, and NRLMF demonstrated its effectiveness compared with five state-of-the-art approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sleep onset process (SOP) is a dynamic process correlated with a multitude of behavioral and physiological markers. A principled analysis of the SOP can serve as a foundation for answering questions of fundamental importance in basic neuroscience and sleep medicine. Unfortunately, current methods for analyzing the SOP fail to account for the overwhelming evidence that the wake/sleep transition is governed by continuous, dynamic physiological processes. Instead, current practices coarsely discretize sleep both in terms of state, where it is viewed as a binary (wake or sleep) process, and in time, where it is viewed as a single time point derived from subjectively scored stages in 30-second epochs, effectively eliminating SOP dynamics from the analysis. These methods also fail to integrate information from both behavioral and physiological data. It is thus imperative to resolve the mismatch between the physiological evidence and analysis methodologies. In this paper, we develop a statistically and physiologically principled dynamic framework and empirical SOP model, combining simultaneously-recorded physiological measurements with behavioral data from a novel breathing task requiring no arousing external sensory stimuli. We fit the model using data from healthy subjects, and estimate the instantaneous probability that a subject is awake during the SOP. The model successfully tracked physiological and behavioral dynamics for individual nights, and significantly outperformed the instantaneous transition models implicit in clinical definitions of sleep onset. Our framework also provides a principled means for cross-subject data alignment as a function of wake probability, allowing us to characterize and compare SOP dynamics across different populations. This analysis enabled us to quantitatively compare the EEG of subjects showing reduced alpha power with the remaining subjects at identical response probabilities. Thus, by incorporating both physiological and behavioral dynamics into our model framework, the dynamics of our analyses can finally match those observed during the SOP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]