Search

The design of efficient combination therapies is a difficult key challenge in the treatment of complex diseases such as cancers. The large heterogeneity of cancers and the large number of available drugs renders exhaustive in vivo or even in vitro investigation of possible treatments impractical. In recent years, sophisticated mechanistic, ordinary differential equation-based pathways models that can predict treatment responses at a molecular level have been developed. However, surprisingly little effort has been put into leveraging these models to find novel therapies. In this paper we use for the first time, to our knowledge, a large-scale state-of-the-art pan-cancer signaling pathway model to identify candidates for novel combination therapies to treat individual cancer cell lines from various tissues (e.g., minimizing proliferation while keeping dosage low to avoid adverse side effects) and populations of heterogeneous cancer cell lines (e.g., minimizing the maximum or average proliferation across the cell lines while keeping dosage low). We also show how our method can be used to optimize the drug combinations used in sequential treatment plans—that is, optimized sequences of potentially different drug combinations—providing additional benefits. In order to solve the treatment optimization problems, we combine the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) algorithm with a significantly more scalable sampling scheme for truncated Gaussian distributions, based on a Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo method. These optimization techniques are independent of the signaling pathway model, and can thus be adapted to find treatment candidates for other complex diseases than cancers as well, as long as a suitable predictive model is available., Author summary Combination therapies are a promising approach to counter complex diseases such as cancers. Two key difficulties in the design of effective cancer combination therapies are the large number of available drugs and the heterogeneity of cancers which render exhaustive laboratory studies impractical. In recent years, sophisticated signaling pathway models that can predict responses to combination treatments at a molecular level have been developed. This motivates the question of how one can leverage mechanistic models to identify candidates for novel combination treatments. In this paper we propose a combination treatment optimization framework which employs a large-scale pan-cancer pathway model. We formulate treatment optimization problems for single cell lines and heterogeneous populations of cancer cells. We further investigate sequential treatment plans and combine an existing evolutionary algorithm with an efficient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo based sampling scheme. During extensive simulation studies our approach identified combination therapies which are predicted to be more effective than conventional treatments. We hope that one day in silico experiments will be used to identify a small set of promising treatment candidates which can then form a starting point for laboratory studies, allowing for an efficient use of limited resources and accelerated discovery of effective therapies.

In their Commentary paper, Villaverde and Massonis (On testing structural identifiability by a simple scaling method: relying on scaling symmetries can be misleading) have commented on our paper in which we proposed a simple scaling method to test structural identifiability. Our scaling invariance method (SIM) tests for scaling symmetries only, and Villaverde and Massonis correctly show the SIM may fail to detect identifiability problems when a model has other types of symmetries. We agree with the limitations raised by these authors but, also, we emphasize that the method is still valuable for its applicability to a wide variety of models, its simplicity, and even as a tool to introduce the problem of identifiability to investigators with little training in mathematics.

Stochastic models of biomolecular reaction networks are commonly employed in systems and synthetic biology to study the effects of stochastic fluctuations emanating from reactions involving species with low copy-numbers. For such models, the Kolmogorov’s forward equation is called the chemical master equation (CME), and it is a fundamental system of linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that describes the evolution of the probability distribution of the random state-vector representing the copy-numbers of all the reacting species. The size of this system is given by the number of states that are accessible by the chemical system, and for most examples of interest this number is either very large or infinite. Moreover, approximations that reduce the size of the system by retaining only a finite number of important chemical states (e.g. those with non-negligible probability) result in high-dimensional ODE systems, even when the number of reacting species is small. Consequently, accurate numerical solution of the CME is very challenging, despite the linear nature of the underlying ODEs. One often resorts to estimating the solutions via computationally intensive stochastic simulations. The goal of the present paper is to develop a novel deep-learning approach for computing solution statistics of high-dimensional CMEs by reformulating the stochastic dynamics using Kolmogorov’s backward equation. The proposed method leverages superior approximation properties of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to reliably estimate expectations under the CME solution for several user-defined functions of the state-vector. This method is algorithmically based on reinforcement learning and it only requires a moderate number of stochastic simulations (in comparison to typical simulation-based approaches) to train the “policy function”. This allows not just the numerical approximation of various expectations for the CME solution but also of its sensitivities with respect to all the reaction network parameters (e.g. rate constants). We provide four examples to illustrate our methodology and provide several directions for future research., Author summary We develop a deep learning framework for estimating solutions of the chemical master equation (CME) that is fundamental to stochastic analysis of reaction networks. The CME is a system of ordinary differential equations that describes the time-evolution of the probability density of the random state-vector, and owing to an inherent curse of dimensionality, directly solving the CME is generally impractical with existing approaches. Moreover, the commonly employed simulation-based approaches for estimating CME solutions often require an exorbitant amount of computational time, even for moderately-sized networks. To counter these issues, we develop a deep reinforcement learning based method, called DeepCME, in this paper. DeepCME not only estimates function expectations based on the CME solution, but it also solves the more challenging problem of estimating their sensitivities with respect to all the model parameters. We illustrate our approach with four carefully chosen reaction network examples with varying sizes. Our results demonstrate that DeepCME reliably estimates the expectations of interest, along with all the parametric sensitivities, at a fraction of the computational cost of simulation-based estimators. We present many directions for future research and suggest further improvements to DeepCME that can greatly enhance its accuracy and applicability.

High-throughput data such as metabolomics, genomics, transcriptomics, and proteomics have become familiar data types within the “-omics” family. For this work, we focus on subsets that interact with one another and represent these “pathways” as graphs. Observed pathways often have disjoint components, i.e., nodes or sets of nodes (metabolites, etc.) not connected to any other within the pathway, which notably lessens testing power. In this paper we propose the Pathway Integrated Regression-based Kernel Association Test (PaIRKAT), a new kernel machine regression method for incorporating known pathway information into the semi-parametric kernel regression framework. This work extends previous kernel machine approaches. This paper also contributes an application of a graph kernel regularization method for overcoming disconnected pathways. By incorporating a regularized or “smoothed” graph into a score test, PaIRKAT can provide more powerful tests for associations between biological pathways and phenotypes of interest and will be helpful in identifying novel pathways for targeted clinical research. We evaluate this method through several simulation studies and an application to real metabolomics data from the COPDGene study. Our simulation studies illustrate the robustness of this method to incorrect and incomplete pathway knowledge, and the real data analysis shows meaningful improvements of testing power in pathways. PaIRKAT was developed for application to metabolomic pathway data, but the techniques are easily generalizable to other data sources with a graph-like structure., Author summary PaIRKAT is a tool for improving testing power on high dimensional data by including graph topography in the kernel machine regression setting. Studies on high-dimensional data can struggle to include the complex relationships between variables. The semi-parametric kernel machine regression model is a powerful tool for capturing these types of relationships. They provide a framework for testing for relationships between outcomes of interest and high dimensional data such as metabolomic, genomic, or proteomic pathways. Our paper proposes a kernel machine method for including known biological connections between high dimensional variables by representing them as edges of ‘graphs’ or ‘networks.’ It is common for nodes (e.g., metabolites) to be disconnected from all others within the graph, which leads to meaningful decreases in testing power when graph information is ignored. We include a graph regularization or ‘smoothing’ approach for managing this issue. We demonstrate the benefits of this approach through simulation studies and an application to the metabolomic data from the COPDGene study.

The aim of this paper is two-fold. First, we propose a new computational method to investigate the particularities of evolution. Second, we apply this method to a model of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) and explore the evolution of mutational robustness and bistability. Living systems have developed their functions through evolutionary processes. To understand the particularities of this process theoretically, evolutionary simulation (ES) alone is insufficient because the outcomes of ES depend on evolutionary pathways. We need a reference system for comparison. An appropriate reference system for this purpose is an ensemble of the randomly sampled genotypes. However, generating high-fitness genotypes by simple random sampling is difficult because such genotypes are rare. In this study, we used the multicanonical Monte Carlo method developed in statistical physics to construct a reference ensemble of GRNs and compared it with the outcomes of ES. We obtained the following results. First, mutational robustness was significantly higher in ES than in the reference ensemble at the same fitness level. Second, the emergence of a new phenotype, bistability, was delayed in evolution. Third, the bistable group of GRNs contains many mutationally fragile GRNs compared with those in the non-bistable group. This suggests that the delayed emergence of bistability is a consequence of the mutation-selection mechanism., Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures

Constructing biological networks capable of performing specific biological functionalities has been of sustained interest in synthetic biology. Adaptation is one such ubiquitous functional property, which enables every living organism to sense a change in its surroundings and return to its operating condition prior to the disturbance. In this paper, we present a generic systems theory-driven method for designing adaptive protein networks. First, we translate the necessary qualitative conditions for adaptation to mathematical constraints using the language of systems theory, which we then map back as ‘design requirements’ for the underlying networks. We go on to prove that a protein network with different input–output nodes (proteins) needs to be at least of third-order in order to provide adaptation. Next, we show that the necessary design principles obtained for a three-node network in adaptation consist of negative feedback or a feed-forward realization. We argue that presence of a particular class of negative feedback or feed-forward realization is necessary for a network of any size to provide adaptation. Further, we claim that the necessary structural conditions derived in this work are the strictest among the ones hitherto existed in the literature. Finally, we prove that the capability of producing adaptation is retained for the admissible motifs even when the output node is connected with a downstream system in a feedback fashion. This result explains how complex biological networks achieve robustness while keeping the core motifs unchanged in the context of a particular functionality. We corroborate our theoretical results with detailed and thorough numerical simulations. Overall, our results present a generic, systematic and robust framework for designing various kinds of biological networks., Author summary Biological systems display a remarkable diversity of functionalities, many of which can be conceived as the response of a large network composed of small interconnecting modules. Unravelling the connection pattern, i.e. design principles, behind important biological functionalities is one of the most challenging problems in systems biology. One such phenomenon is perfect adaptation, which merits special attention owing to its universal presence ranging from chemotaxis in bacterial cells to calcium homeostasis in mammalian cells. The present work focuses on finding the design principles for perfect adaptation in the presence of a stair-case type disturbance. To this end, the current work proposes a systems-theoretic approach to deduce precise mathematical (hence structural) conditions that comply with the key performance parameters for adaptation. The approach is agnostic to the particularities of the reaction kinetics, underlining the dominant role of the topological structure on the response of the network. Notably, the design principles obtained in this work serve as the most strict necessary structural conditions for a network of any size to provide perfect adaptation.

Experiments on tumor spheroids have shown that compressive stress from their environment can reversibly decrease tumor expansion rates and final sizes. Stress release experiments show that nonuniform anisotropic elastic stresses can be distributed throughout. The elastic stresses are maintained by structural proteins and adhesive molecules, and can be actively relaxed by a variety of biophysical processes. In this paper, we present a new continuum model to investigate how the growth-induced elastic stresses and active stress relaxation, in conjunction with cell size control feedback machinery, regulate the cell density and stress distributions within growing tumors as well as the tumor sizes in the presence of external physical confinement and gradients of growth-promoting chemical fields. We introduce an adaptive reference map that relates the current position with the reference position but adapts to the current position in the Eulerian frame (lab coordinates) via relaxation. This type of stress relaxation is similar to but simpler than the classical Maxwell model of viscoelasticity in its formulation. By fitting the model to experimental data from two independent studies of tumor spheroid growth and their cell density distributions, treating the tumors as incompressible, neo-Hookean elastic materials, we find that the rates of stress relaxation of tumor tissues can be comparable to volumetric growth rates. Our study provides insight on how the biophysical properties of the tumor and host microenvironment, mechanical feedback control and diffusion-limited differential growth act in concert to regulate spatial patterns of stress and growth. When the tumor is stiffer than the host, our model predicts tumors are more able to change their size and mechanical state autonomously, which may help to explain why increased tumor stiffness is an established hallmark of malignant tumors., Author summary The mechanical state of cells can modulate their growth and division dynamics via mechanotransduction, which affects both the cell size distribution and the tissue size as a whole. Experiments on tumor spheroids have shown that compressive stress from their environment can reversibly decrease tumor expansion rates and final sizes. Besides external confinement and compression on the tumor border, a heterogeneous stress field can be generated inside the tumor by nutrient-driven differential growth. Such growth-induced mechanical stresses can be relaxed by tissue rearrangement, which happens during cell neighbor exchanges, cell divisions, and extracellular matrix renewal. In this study, we have developed a continuum model that describes the above mechanical interactions and the dynamics of tissue rearrangement explicitly. Motivated by published experimental data, we consider mechanotransduction where the local compressive stress slows down cell growth and cell size reduction limits cell division. We have analyzed how external mechanical stimuli and internal processes influence the outcome of cell-and-tissue sizes and spatial patterns of cell density and mechanical stress in growing tumors.

System identification techniques -- projection pursuit regression models (PPRs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) -- provide state-of-the-art performance in predicting visual cortical neurons' responses to arbitrary input stimuli. However, the constituent kernels recovered by these methods are often noisy and lack coherent structure, making it difficult to understand the underlying component features of a neuron's receptive field. In this paper, we show that using a dictionary of diverse kernels with complex shapes learned from natural scenes based on efficient coding theory, as the front-end for PPRs and CNNs can improve their performance in neuronal response prediction as well as algorithmic data efficiency and convergence speed. Extensive experimental results also indicate that these sparse-code kernels provide important information on the component features of a neuron's receptive field. In addition, we find that models with the complex-shaped sparse code front-end are significantly better than models with a standard orientation-selective Gabor filter front-end for modeling V1 neurons that have been found to exhibit complex pattern selectivity. We show that the relative performance difference due to these two front-ends can be used to produce a sensitive metric for detecting complex selectivity in V1 neurons., 22 pages

Working memory is a cognitive function involving the storage and manipulation of latent information over brief intervals of time, thus making it crucial for context-dependent computation. Here, we use a top-down modeling approach to examine network-level mechanisms of working memory, an enigmatic issue and central topic of study in neuroscience. We optimize thousands of recurrent rate-based neural networks on a working memory task and then perform dynamical systems analysis on the ensuing optimized networks, wherein we find that four distinct dynamical mechanisms can emerge. In particular, we show the prevalence of a mechanism in which memories are encoded along slow stable manifolds in the network state space, leading to a phasic neuronal activation profile during memory periods. In contrast to mechanisms in which memories are directly encoded at stable attractors, these networks naturally forget stimuli over time. Despite this seeming functional disadvantage, they are more efficient in terms of how they leverage their attractor landscape and paradoxically, are considerably more robust to noise. Our results provide new hypotheses regarding how working memory function may be encoded within the dynamics of neural circuits., Author summary The ability to remember information for brief periods of time before using it is a key human ability. For example, retaining a phone number for a few moments prior to entering it into a keypad. Such ability, known as working memory, enables many more complex functions such as planning and reasoning. In this paper, we use theory and computational modeling approaches to try and better understand how circuits and networks in the brain might be achieving working memory. Specifically, we construct hypothetical network models to perform a task that embodies essential aspects of working memory. We then dissect our model to reveal how its components—simulated neural units—interact with each other to represent and maintain information. It turns out that some models can achieve memory by maintaining a fixed representation over time, i.e., the units remain ‘still’ during memory. However, other models fluctuate their activity during memory in a particular way that is seemingly quite efficient and less susceptible to distraction. In total, our computational study provides new theory for how this form of memory might be implemented in brain networks.

Decision-making about pandemic mitigation often relies upon simulation modelling. Models of disease transmission through networks of contacts--between individuals or between population centres--are increasingly used for these purposes. Real-world contact networks are rich in structural features that influence infection transmission, such as tightly-knit local communities that are weakly connected to one another. In this paper, we propose a new flow-based edge-betweenness centrality method for detecting bottleneck edges that connect nodes in contact networks. In particular, we utilize convex optimization formulations based on the idea of diffusion with p-norm network flow. Using simulation models of COVID-19 transmission through real network data at both individual and county levels, we demonstrate that targeting bottleneck edges identified by the proposed method reduces the number of infected cases by up to 10% more than state-of-the-art edge-betweenness methods. Furthermore, the proposed method is orders of magnitude faster than existing methods., Comment: 38 pages, 21 figures

Recent advancements in in situ methods, such as multiplexed in situ RNA hybridization and in situ RNA sequencing, have deepened our understanding of the way biological processes are spatially organized in tissues. Automated image processing and spot-calling algorithms for analyzing in situ transcriptomics images have many parameters which need to be tuned for optimal detection. Having ground truth datasets (images where there is very high confidence on the accuracy of the detected spots) is essential for evaluating these algorithms and tuning their parameters. We present a first-in-kind open-source toolkit and framework for in situ transcriptomics image analysis that incorporates crowdsourced annotations, alongside expert annotations, as a source of ground truth for the analysis of in situ transcriptomics images. The kit includes tools for preparing images for crowdsourcing annotation to optimize crowdsourced workers’ ability to annotate these images reliably, performing quality control (QC) on worker annotations, extracting candidate parameters for spot-calling algorithms from sample images, tuning parameters for spot-calling algorithms, and evaluating spot-calling algorithms and worker performance. These tools are wrapped in a modular pipeline with a flexible structure that allows users to take advantage of crowdsourced annotations from any source of their choice. We tested the pipeline using real and synthetic in situ transcriptomics images and annotations from the Amazon Mechanical Turk system obtained via Quanti.us. Using real images from in situ experiments and simulated images produced by one of the tools in the kit, we studied worker sensitivity to spot characteristics and established rules for annotation QC. We explored and demonstrated the use of ground truth generated in this way for validating spot-calling algorithms and tuning their parameters, and confirmed that consensus crowdsourced annotations are a viable substitute for expert-generated ground truth for these purposes., Author summary To understand important biological processes such as development, wound healing, and disease, it is necessary to study where different genes are expressed in a tissue. RNA molecules can be visualized within tissues by using in situ transcriptomics tools, which use fluorescent probes that bind to specific RNA target molecules and appear in microscopy images as bright spots. Algorithms can be used to find the locations of these spots, but ground truth datasets (images with spots located to high accuracy) are needed to evaluate these algorithms and tune their parameters. While the typical way of generating ground truth datasets is having an expert annotate the spots by hand, many in situ transcriptomics image datasets are too large for this. However, it is often easy for non-experts to identify the spots with minimal training. In this paper, we present an open-source toolkit and framework that incorporates crowdsourced annotations alongside expert annotations as a source of ground truth for the analysis of in situ transcriptomics images. We explored and demonstrated the use of this framework for validating spot-calling algorithms and tuning their parameters, and confirmed that consensus crowdsourced annotations are a viable substitute for expert-generated ground truth.

The origin of life involved complicated evolutionary processes. Computer modeling is a promising way to reveal relevant mechanisms. However, due to the limitation of our knowledge on prebiotic chemistry, it is usually difficult to justify parameter-setting for the modeling. Thus, typically, the studies were conducted in a reverse way: the parameter-space was explored to find those parameter values “supporting” a hypothetical scene (that is, leaving the parameter-justification a later job when sufficient knowledge is available). Exploring the parameter-space manually is an arduous job (especially when the modeling becomes complicated) and additionally, difficult to characterize as regular “Methods” in a paper. Here we show that a machine-learning-like approach may be adopted, automatically optimizing the parameters. With this efficient parameter-exploring approach, the evolutionary modeling on the origin of life would become much more powerful. In particular, based on this, it is expected that more near-reality (complex) models could be introduced, and thereby theoretical research would be more tightly associated with experimental investigation in this field–hopefully leading to significant steps forward in respect to our understanding on the origin of life., Author summary People have long been interested in the evolutionary processes through which life on our planet could have arisen from a non-life background. However, it seems that experimental studies in this field are proceeding slowly, perhaps owing to the complication of such processes. In the meantime, computer modeling has shown its potential to disclose the evolutionary mechanisms involved. Now a major difficulty of the computer modeling work is to justify the parameter-setting–on account of our limited knowledge on prebiotic chemistry and environments. Thus, people tend to explore the parameter space to seek parameter values in favor of the hypothetic scene and leave the parameter-justification a later job when sufficient knowledge is available. To date, the parameter-exploration is usually conducted manually (in many cases by trial and error), thus arduous and unpredictable. Inspired by the algorithm of machine-learning, we designed an automatic approach of parameter-exploration. The results showed that the approach is quite effective–that is, “good” parameter-sets in favor of hypothetic scenes in the origin of life can be found automatically. It is expected that such a machine-learning-like method would greatly enhance the efficiency of our evolutionary modeling studies on the origin of life in future.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection results in millions of hospitalizations and thousands of deaths each year. Variations in the adaptive and innate immune response appear to be associated with RSV severity. To investigate the host response to RSV infection in infants, we performed a systems-level study of RSV pathophysiology, incorporating high-throughput measurements of the peripheral innate and adaptive immune systems and the airway epithelium and microbiota. We implemented a novel multi-omic data integration method based on multilayered principal component analysis, penalized regression, and feature weight back-propagation, which enabled us to identify cellular pathways associated with RSV severity. In both airway and immune cells, we found an association between RSV severity and activation of pathways controlling Th17 and acute phase response signaling, as well as inhibition of B cell receptor signaling. Dysregulation of both the humoral and mucosal response to RSV may play a critical role in determining illness severity., Author summary This paper presents a novel approach to understanding the localized molecular responses to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and the system-level correlates of clinical outcomes. To do this, we developed a novel statistical method able to integrate high dimensional molecular data characterizing the host airway microbota and immune and nasal gene expression. We show that this integrative approach facilitates superior performance in estimating clinical outcome as opposed to any single data type. Using this approach, we identified both cell type-specific and shared biomarkers and regulatory pathways associated with RSV severity. Specifically, we identified an association between RSV severity, activation of pathways controlling Th17, and inhibition of B cell receptor signaling, which were present in both the site of infection airway and in peripheral immune cells. These results can guide future efforts to identify biomarkers for identifying or predicting illness severity following infant RSV infection. They may also be useful as biomarkers to inform the efficacy of future interventions (e.g., therapies) or preventative measures to suppress the rate of severe disease (e.g., vaccines).

Variants of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model of Kermack & McKendrick (1927) enjoy wide application in epidemiology, offering simple yet powerful inferential and predictive tools in the study of diverse infectious diseases across human, animal and plant populations. Direct transmission models (DTM) are a subset of these that treat the processes of disease transmission as comprising a series of discrete instantaneous events. Infections transmitted indirectly by persistent environmental pathogens, however, are examples where a DTM description might fail and are perhaps better described by models that comprise explicit environmental transmission routes, so-called environmental transmission models (ETM). In this paper we discuss the stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) DTM and susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-pathogen (SEIR-P) ETM and we show that the former is the timescale separation limit of the latter, with ETM host-disease dynamics increasingly resembling those of a DTM when the pathogen’s characteristic timescale is shortened, relative to that of the host population. Using graphical posterior predictive checks (GPPC), we investigate the validity of the SEIR model when fitted to simulated SEIR-P host infection and removal times. Such analyses demonstrate how, in many cases, the SEIR model is robust to departure from direct transmission. Finally, we present a case study of white spot disease (WSD) in penaeid shrimp with rates of environmental transmission and pathogen decay (SEIR-P model parameters) estimated using published results of experiments. Using SEIR and SEIR-P simulations of a hypothetical WSD outbreak management scenario, we demonstrate how relative shortening of the pathogen timescale comes about in practice. With atttempts to remove diseased shrimp from the population every 24h, we see SEIR and SEIR-P model outputs closely conincide. However, when removals are 6-hourly, the two models’ mean outputs diverge, with distinct predictions of outbreak size and duration., Author summary Mathematical models of the spread and progression of communicable disease in populations are important tools in efforts to prevent and control outbreaks. A common class of disease models assume that infection is transmitted directly from infectious to susceptible individuals when they are in close proximity—so called direct transmission models. These are used widely and have proven invaluable as simplified descriptions of a wide array of infectious diseases in diverse populations. However, many pathogens spread through indirect, environmental routes of transmission, for example via contact with contaminated water sources in the case of cholera, or inhalation of infectious airborne droplets for respiratory infections, such as Covid-19. We show that direct transmission models work well for such pathogens with short environmental lifetimes and where hosts shed pathogens into the environment at high rates. This means that we do not require information about environmental pathogen levels to understand the behaviour of outbreaks caused by these pathogens. When shedding rates are also low, e.g., with macroparasitic infections, or when variable environmental factors play a role in transmissibility, then explicit modelling of both the pathogen and environmental transmission will provide a more accurate picture than a direct transmission approximation.

The spatial distribution of visual items allows us to infer the presence of latent causes in the world. For instance, a spatial cluster of ants allows us to infer the presence of a common food source. However, optimal inference requires the integration of a computationally intractable number of world states in real world situations. For example, optimal inference about whether a common cause exists based on N spatially distributed visual items requires marginalizing over both the location of the latent cause and 2N possible affiliation patterns (where each item may be affiliated or non-affiliated with the latent cause). How might the brain approximate this inference? We show that subject behaviour deviates qualitatively from Bayes-optimal, in particular showing an unexpected positive effect of N (the number of visual items) on the false-alarm rate. We propose several “point-estimating” observer models that fit subject behaviour better than the Bayesian model. They each avoid a costly computational marginalization over at least one of the variables of the generative model by “committing” to a point estimate of at least one of the two generative model variables. These findings suggest that the brain may implement partially committal variants of Bayesian models when detecting latent causes based on complex real world data., Author summary Perceptual systems are designed to make sense of fragmented sensory data by inferring common, latent causes. Seeing a cluster of insects might allow us to infer the presence of a common food source, whereas the same number of insects scattered over a larger area of land might not evoke the same suspicions. The ability to reliably make this inference based on statistical information about the environment is surprisingly non-trivial: making the best possible inference requires making full use of the probabilistic information provided by the sensory data, which would require considering a combinatorially explosive number of hypothetical world states. In this paper, we test human subjects on their ability to perform a causal detection task: subjects are asked to judge whether an underlying cause of clustering is present or absent, based on the spatial distribution of those items. We show that subjects do not reason optimally on this task, and that particular computational short cuts (“committing” to certain world states over others, rather than representing them all) might underlie perceptual decision-making in these causal detection schemes.

There has been a spate of interest in association networks in biological and medical research, for example, genetic interaction networks. In this paper, we propose a novel method, the extended joint hub graphical lasso (EDOHA), to estimate multiple related interaction networks for high dimensional omics data across multiple distinct classes. To be specific, we construct a convex penalized log likelihood optimization problem and solve it with an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm. The proposed method can also be adapted to estimate interaction networks for high dimensional compositional data such as microbial interaction networks. The performance of the proposed method in the simulated studies shows that EDOHA has remarkable advantages in recognizing class-specific hubs than the existing comparable methods. We also present three applications of real datasets. Biological interpretations of our results confirm those of previous studies and offer a more comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanism in disease., Author summary Reconstruction of multiple association networks from high dimensional omics data is an important topic, especially in biology. Previous studies focused on estimating different networks and detecting common hubs among all classes. Integration of information over different classes of data while allowing the difference in the hub nodes is also biologically plausible. Therefore, we propose a method, EDOHA, to jointly construct multiple interaction networks with the capacity in finding different hub networks for each class of data. Simulation studies show better performance over conventional methods. The method has been demonstrated in three real-world data.

8 pages.-- This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, A recent paper published in PLOS Computational Biology [1] introduces the Scaling Invariance Method (SIM) for analysing structural local identifiability and observability. These two properties define mathematically the possibility of determining the values of the parameters (identifiability) and states (observability) of a dynamic model by observing its output. In this note we warn that SIM considers scaling symmetries as the only possible cause of non-identifiability and non-observability. We show that other types of symmetries can cause the same problems without being detected by SIM, and that in those cases the method may lead one to conclude that the model is identifiable and observable when it is actually not, AFV has received funding from a Ramón y Cajal Fellowship (RYC-2019-027537-I) and from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities and the European Union FEDER under project grant SYNBIOCONTROL (DPI2017-82896-C2-2-R). GM was funded by the CSIC intramural project grant MOEBIUS (PIE 202070E062)

Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design. This paper outlines the Optima TB framework and how it was applied in Belarus, an upper-middle income country in Eastern Europe with a relatively high burden of TB. Optima TB is a population-based disease transmission model, with programmatic cost functions and an optimisation algorithm. Modelled populations include age-differentiated general populations and higher-risk populations such as people living with HIV. Populations and prospective interventions are defined in consultation with local stakeholders. In partnership with the latter, demographic, epidemiological, programmatic, as well as cost and spending data for these populations and interventions are then collated. An optimisation analysis of TB spending was conducted in Belarus, using program objectives and constraints defined in collaboration with local stakeholders, which included experts, decision makers, funders and organisations involved in service delivery, support and technical assistance. These analyses show that it is possible to improve health impact by redistributing current TB spending in Belarus. Specifically, shifting funding from inpatient- to outpatient-focused care models, and from mass screening to active case finding strategies, could reduce TB prevalence and mortality by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035. In addition, an optimised allocation of TB spending could lead to a reduction in drug-resistant TB infections by 40% over this period. This would support progress towards national TB targets without additional financial resources. The case study in Belarus demonstrates how reallocations of spending across existing and new interventions could have a substantial impact on TB outcomes. This highlights the potential for Optima TB and similar modelling tools to support evidence-based priority setting., Author summary Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading global cause of death and morbidity, and 85% of deaths occur in countries where resources for TB care and control are limited. Many countries cannot finance all TB interventions or technologies, which means difficult decisions on what to prioritise and publically finance. Modelling tools can help decision-makers set priorities based on evidence, in a systematic and transparent way. This study presents Optima TB, a tool that estimates which allocations of spending across interventions will most likely maximise specified objectives—such as minimising TB deaths, prevalence and incidence. In partnership with local decision-makers and stakeholders, Optima TB was applied in Belarus. Recommendations from the model findings include focussing investment on outpatient rather than inpatient care and actively finding people with TB (e.g. through contact tracing) rather than mass testing of the population. The recommended reallocations of spending could reduce TB prevalence and deaths by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035 for the same amount of spending. Key stakeholders were engaged throughout the analysis and findings and uncertainty around the results were clearly communicated with decision-makers. The timeliness of the results helped inform national dialogue on TB care reform, among other key policy discussions.