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The design of efficient combination therapies is a difficult key challenge in the treatment of complex diseases such as cancers. The large heterogeneity of cancers and the large number of available drugs renders exhaustive in vivo or even in vitro investigation of possible treatments impractical. In recent years, sophisticated mechanistic, ordinary differential equation-based pathways models that can predict treatment responses at a molecular level have been developed. However, surprisingly little effort has been put into leveraging these models to find novel therapies. In this paper we use for the first time, to our knowledge, a large-scale state-of-the-art pan-cancer signaling pathway model to identify candidates for novel combination therapies to treat individual cancer cell lines from various tissues (e.g., minimizing proliferation while keeping dosage low to avoid adverse side effects) and populations of heterogeneous cancer cell lines (e.g., minimizing the maximum or average proliferation across the cell lines while keeping dosage low). We also show how our method can be used to optimize the drug combinations used in sequential treatment plans—that is, optimized sequences of potentially different drug combinations—providing additional benefits. In order to solve the treatment optimization problems, we combine the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) algorithm with a significantly more scalable sampling scheme for truncated Gaussian distributions, based on a Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo method. These optimization techniques are independent of the signaling pathway model, and can thus be adapted to find treatment candidates for other complex diseases than cancers as well, as long as a suitable predictive model is available., Author summary Combination therapies are a promising approach to counter complex diseases such as cancers. Two key difficulties in the design of effective cancer combination therapies are the large number of available drugs and the heterogeneity of cancers which render exhaustive laboratory studies impractical. In recent years, sophisticated signaling pathway models that can predict responses to combination treatments at a molecular level have been developed. This motivates the question of how one can leverage mechanistic models to identify candidates for novel combination treatments. In this paper we propose a combination treatment optimization framework which employs a large-scale pan-cancer pathway model. We formulate treatment optimization problems for single cell lines and heterogeneous populations of cancer cells. We further investigate sequential treatment plans and combine an existing evolutionary algorithm with an efficient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo based sampling scheme. During extensive simulation studies our approach identified combination therapies which are predicted to be more effective than conventional treatments. We hope that one day in silico experiments will be used to identify a small set of promising treatment candidates which can then form a starting point for laboratory studies, allowing for an efficient use of limited resources and accelerated discovery of effective therapies.

Recurrent neural networks with memory and attention mechanisms are widely used in natural language processing because they can capture short and long term sequential information for diverse tasks. We propose an integrated deep learning model for microbial DNA sequence data, which exploits convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and attention mechanisms to predict taxonomic classifications and sample-associated attributes, such as the relationship between the microbiome and host phenotype, on the read/sequence level. In this paper, we develop this novel deep learning approach and evaluate its application to amplicon sequences. We apply our approach to short DNA reads and full sequences of 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) marker genes, which identify the heterogeneity of a microbial community sample. We demonstrate that our implementation of a novel attention-based deep network architecture, Read2Pheno, achieves read-level phenotypic prediction. Training Read2Pheno models will encode sequences (reads) into dense, meaningful representations: learned embedded vectors output from the intermediate layer of the network model, which can provide biological insight when visualized. The attention layer of Read2Pheno models can also automatically identify nucleotide regions in reads/sequences which are particularly informative for classification. As such, this novel approach can avoid pre/post-processing and manual interpretation required with conventional approaches to microbiome sequence classification. We further show, as proof-of-concept, that aggregating read-level information can robustly predict microbial community properties, host phenotype, and taxonomic classification, with performance at least comparable to conventional approaches. An implementation of the attention-based deep learning network is available at https://github.com/EESI/sequence_attention (a python package) and https://github.com/EESI/seq2att (a command line tool)., Author summary Microbiomes are communities of microscopic organisms found everywhere, including on and in the human body. For example, the gut microbiome plays an important role in digestion, and changes in composition are associated with changes in health or disease, e.g., inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Today, microbiome composition is often obtained from high-throughput sequencing, which generates many short DNA reads from multiple organisms in a sample. In this paper, we present a novel deep learning framework, Read2Pheno, to predict phenotype from all the reads in a set of biological samples. An attention mechanism allows visualization of specific subregions (sets of bases) which are important in classifying the reads according to phenotype or taxon labels. We evaluate the framework on sequencing data for 16S rRNA genes, genetic markers used to identify microbial taxonomy. We show that Read2Pheno performs comparably as conventional methods on three distinct data sets from the American Gut Project, IBD patients and controls, and a comprehensive taxonomic database. Moreover, Read2Pheno results can be readily interpreted—e.g., to identify regions of the 16S rRNA gene to target for PCR diagnostics—without additional pre/post-processing steps that can introduce complexity and error.

Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention., Author summary In this paper we present PopART-IBM, an individual-based model used to simulate HIV transmission in communities in high prevalence settings. We show that PopART-IBM can simulate transmission over a span of decades in a large community in less than a minute. This computational efficiency allows us to calibrate the model within an inference framework, and we show an illustrative example of calibration using an adaptive population Monte Carlo Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm for a community in Zambia that was part of the HPTN-071 (PopART) trial. We compare the detailed model output to real-world data collected during the trial from this community. Finally, we project how the HIV epidemic would have changed over time in this community if no intervention from the trial had occurred.

Surveillance is critical to mounting an appropriate and effective response to pandemics. However, aggregated case report data suffers from reporting delays and can lead to misleading inferences. Different from aggregated case report data, line list data is a table contains individual features such as dates of symptom onset and reporting for each reported case and a good source for modeling delays. Current methods for modeling reporting delays are not particularly appropriate for line list data, which typically has missing symptom onset dates that are non-ignorable for modeling reporting delays. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach that dynamically integrates imputation and estimation for line list data. Specifically, this Bayesian approach can accurately estimate the epidemic curve and instantaneous reproduction numbers, even with most symptom onset dates missing. The Bayesian approach is also robust to deviations from model assumptions, such as changes in the reporting delay distribution or incorrect specification of the maximum reporting delay. We apply the Bayesian approach to COVID-19 line list data in Massachusetts and find the reproduction number estimates correspond more closely to the control measures than the estimates based on the reported curve., Author summary Interventions meant to control infectious diseases are often determined and judged using surveillance data on the number of new cases of disease. In many diseases, there are substantial delays between the time when an individual is infected or shows symptoms and when the case is actually reported to a public health authority, such as the CDC. This reported data often collects information on symptom onset dates for some individuals. In this paper, we describe a method that imputes missing onset dates for all individuals and recreates the history of the disease progression in a population according to symptom onset dates, which are the best observable proxy available for infection dates. Our method also estimates the instantaneous reproduction number and is robust to many deviations from the assumptions of the model. We show, using a COVID-19 dataset from Massachusetts that our method accurately follows the implementation of control measures in the state.

Stochastic models of biomolecular reaction networks are commonly employed in systems and synthetic biology to study the effects of stochastic fluctuations emanating from reactions involving species with low copy-numbers. For such models, the Kolmogorov’s forward equation is called the chemical master equation (CME), and it is a fundamental system of linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that describes the evolution of the probability distribution of the random state-vector representing the copy-numbers of all the reacting species. The size of this system is given by the number of states that are accessible by the chemical system, and for most examples of interest this number is either very large or infinite. Moreover, approximations that reduce the size of the system by retaining only a finite number of important chemical states (e.g. those with non-negligible probability) result in high-dimensional ODE systems, even when the number of reacting species is small. Consequently, accurate numerical solution of the CME is very challenging, despite the linear nature of the underlying ODEs. One often resorts to estimating the solutions via computationally intensive stochastic simulations. The goal of the present paper is to develop a novel deep-learning approach for computing solution statistics of high-dimensional CMEs by reformulating the stochastic dynamics using Kolmogorov’s backward equation. The proposed method leverages superior approximation properties of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to reliably estimate expectations under the CME solution for several user-defined functions of the state-vector. This method is algorithmically based on reinforcement learning and it only requires a moderate number of stochastic simulations (in comparison to typical simulation-based approaches) to train the “policy function”. This allows not just the numerical approximation of various expectations for the CME solution but also of its sensitivities with respect to all the reaction network parameters (e.g. rate constants). We provide four examples to illustrate our methodology and provide several directions for future research., Author summary We develop a deep learning framework for estimating solutions of the chemical master equation (CME) that is fundamental to stochastic analysis of reaction networks. The CME is a system of ordinary differential equations that describes the time-evolution of the probability density of the random state-vector, and owing to an inherent curse of dimensionality, directly solving the CME is generally impractical with existing approaches. Moreover, the commonly employed simulation-based approaches for estimating CME solutions often require an exorbitant amount of computational time, even for moderately-sized networks. To counter these issues, we develop a deep reinforcement learning based method, called DeepCME, in this paper. DeepCME not only estimates function expectations based on the CME solution, but it also solves the more challenging problem of estimating their sensitivities with respect to all the model parameters. We illustrate our approach with four carefully chosen reaction network examples with varying sizes. Our results demonstrate that DeepCME reliably estimates the expectations of interest, along with all the parametric sensitivities, at a fraction of the computational cost of simulation-based estimators. We present many directions for future research and suggest further improvements to DeepCME that can greatly enhance its accuracy and applicability.

High-throughput data such as metabolomics, genomics, transcriptomics, and proteomics have become familiar data types within the “-omics” family. For this work, we focus on subsets that interact with one another and represent these “pathways” as graphs. Observed pathways often have disjoint components, i.e., nodes or sets of nodes (metabolites, etc.) not connected to any other within the pathway, which notably lessens testing power. In this paper we propose the Pathway Integrated Regression-based Kernel Association Test (PaIRKAT), a new kernel machine regression method for incorporating known pathway information into the semi-parametric kernel regression framework. This work extends previous kernel machine approaches. This paper also contributes an application of a graph kernel regularization method for overcoming disconnected pathways. By incorporating a regularized or “smoothed” graph into a score test, PaIRKAT can provide more powerful tests for associations between biological pathways and phenotypes of interest and will be helpful in identifying novel pathways for targeted clinical research. We evaluate this method through several simulation studies and an application to real metabolomics data from the COPDGene study. Our simulation studies illustrate the robustness of this method to incorrect and incomplete pathway knowledge, and the real data analysis shows meaningful improvements of testing power in pathways. PaIRKAT was developed for application to metabolomic pathway data, but the techniques are easily generalizable to other data sources with a graph-like structure., Author summary PaIRKAT is a tool for improving testing power on high dimensional data by including graph topography in the kernel machine regression setting. Studies on high-dimensional data can struggle to include the complex relationships between variables. The semi-parametric kernel machine regression model is a powerful tool for capturing these types of relationships. They provide a framework for testing for relationships between outcomes of interest and high dimensional data such as metabolomic, genomic, or proteomic pathways. Our paper proposes a kernel machine method for including known biological connections between high dimensional variables by representing them as edges of ‘graphs’ or ‘networks.’ It is common for nodes (e.g., metabolites) to be disconnected from all others within the graph, which leads to meaningful decreases in testing power when graph information is ignored. We include a graph regularization or ‘smoothing’ approach for managing this issue. We demonstrate the benefits of this approach through simulation studies and an application to the metabolomic data from the COPDGene study.

Read-depths (RDs) are frequently used in identifying structural variants (SVs) from sequencing data. For existing RD-based SV callers, it is difficult for them to determine breakpoints in single-nucleotide resolution due to the noisiness of RD data and the bin-based calculation. In this paper, we propose to use the deep segmentation model UNet to learn base-wise RD patterns surrounding breakpoints of known SVs. We integrate model predictions with an RD-based SV caller to enhance breakpoints in single-nucleotide resolution. We show that UNet can be trained with a small amount of data and can be applied both in-sample and cross-sample. An enhancement pipeline named RDBKE significantly increases the number of SVs with more precise breakpoints on simulated and real data. The source code of RDBKE is freely available at https://github.com/yaozhong/deepIntraSV., Author summary In this paper, we used the deep segmentation model UNet to alleviate the bin size limitation of RD-based SV callers. UNet was initially proposed for image data. Here, we demonstrated that the UNet model could also be applied for one-dimensional genomic data. We formalized the breakpoint prediction as a segmentation task and inferred breakpoints in single-nucleotide resolution from predicted label marks. Through a set of experiments on both simulated and real WGS data, we demonstrated that the UNet model could be trained with a small amount of data, and an enhancement pipeline called RDBKE significantly increased the number of SVs with more precise breakpoints.

Activities of transcription factors (TFs) are temporally modulated to regulate dynamic cellular processes, including development, homeostasis, and disease. Recent developments of bioinformatic tools have enabled the analysis of TF activities using transcriptome data. However, because these methods typically use exon-based target expression levels, the estimated TF activities have limited temporal accuracy. To address this, we proposed a TF activity measure based on intron-level information in time-series RNA-seq data, and implemented it to decode the temporal control of TF activities during dynamic processes. We showed that TF activities inferred from intronic reads can better recapitulate instantaneous TF activities compared to the exon-based measure. By analyzing public and our own time-series transcriptome data, we found that intron-based TF activities improve the characterization of temporal phasing of cycling TFs during circadian rhythm, and facilitate the discovery of two temporally opposing TF modules during T cell activation. Collectively, we anticipate that the proposed approach would be broadly applicable for decoding global transcriptional architecture during dynamic processes., Author summary Many health-related cellular processes, such as immune response and disease progression, involve dynamic changes of gene expression state, which are orchestrated by transcription factors. Dissecting the activities of transcription factors is thus important for understanding cellular processes and for interfering with dysregulated processes. Our ability to analyze transcription factor activities has been facilitated by genome-wide gene expression data from high-throughput assays such as RNA sequencing. Existing methods typically estimate transcription factor activities based on the expression levels of matured mRNAs of target genes. However, because the levels of matured mRNAs are affected by transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulatory activities, the estimated transcription factor activities may not faithfully recapitulate the regulatory activities of transcription factors. In this paper, we proposed and validated an alternative approach for analyzing transcription factor activities using the expression levels of unmatured mRNAs of target genes, allowing us to decode how transcription factor activities are temporally controlled during key biological processes. Our results provide insights into the temporal phasing of key circadian regulator activities in mouse liver, and uncover two temporally opposing modules of transcription factors that dictate the immune responses in T cells. Therefore, this approach can help understand the regulatory principles of dynamic cellular processes.

The aim of this paper is two-fold. First, we propose a new computational method to investigate the particularities of evolution. Second, we apply this method to a model of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) and explore the evolution of mutational robustness and bistability. Living systems have developed their functions through evolutionary processes. To understand the particularities of this process theoretically, evolutionary simulation (ES) alone is insufficient because the outcomes of ES depend on evolutionary pathways. We need a reference system for comparison. An appropriate reference system for this purpose is an ensemble of the randomly sampled genotypes. However, generating high-fitness genotypes by simple random sampling is difficult because such genotypes are rare. In this study, we used the multicanonical Monte Carlo method developed in statistical physics to construct a reference ensemble of GRNs and compared it with the outcomes of ES. We obtained the following results. First, mutational robustness was significantly higher in ES than in the reference ensemble at the same fitness level. Second, the emergence of a new phenotype, bistability, was delayed in evolution. Third, the bistable group of GRNs contains many mutationally fragile GRNs compared with those in the non-bistable group. This suggests that the delayed emergence of bistability is a consequence of the mutation-selection mechanism., Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures

Constructing biological networks capable of performing specific biological functionalities has been of sustained interest in synthetic biology. Adaptation is one such ubiquitous functional property, which enables every living organism to sense a change in its surroundings and return to its operating condition prior to the disturbance. In this paper, we present a generic systems theory-driven method for designing adaptive protein networks. First, we translate the necessary qualitative conditions for adaptation to mathematical constraints using the language of systems theory, which we then map back as ‘design requirements’ for the underlying networks. We go on to prove that a protein network with different input–output nodes (proteins) needs to be at least of third-order in order to provide adaptation. Next, we show that the necessary design principles obtained for a three-node network in adaptation consist of negative feedback or a feed-forward realization. We argue that presence of a particular class of negative feedback or feed-forward realization is necessary for a network of any size to provide adaptation. Further, we claim that the necessary structural conditions derived in this work are the strictest among the ones hitherto existed in the literature. Finally, we prove that the capability of producing adaptation is retained for the admissible motifs even when the output node is connected with a downstream system in a feedback fashion. This result explains how complex biological networks achieve robustness while keeping the core motifs unchanged in the context of a particular functionality. We corroborate our theoretical results with detailed and thorough numerical simulations. Overall, our results present a generic, systematic and robust framework for designing various kinds of biological networks., Author summary Biological systems display a remarkable diversity of functionalities, many of which can be conceived as the response of a large network composed of small interconnecting modules. Unravelling the connection pattern, i.e. design principles, behind important biological functionalities is one of the most challenging problems in systems biology. One such phenomenon is perfect adaptation, which merits special attention owing to its universal presence ranging from chemotaxis in bacterial cells to calcium homeostasis in mammalian cells. The present work focuses on finding the design principles for perfect adaptation in the presence of a stair-case type disturbance. To this end, the current work proposes a systems-theoretic approach to deduce precise mathematical (hence structural) conditions that comply with the key performance parameters for adaptation. The approach is agnostic to the particularities of the reaction kinetics, underlining the dominant role of the topological structure on the response of the network. Notably, the design principles obtained in this work serve as the most strict necessary structural conditions for a network of any size to provide perfect adaptation.

Experiments on tumor spheroids have shown that compressive stress from their environment can reversibly decrease tumor expansion rates and final sizes. Stress release experiments show that nonuniform anisotropic elastic stresses can be distributed throughout. The elastic stresses are maintained by structural proteins and adhesive molecules, and can be actively relaxed by a variety of biophysical processes. In this paper, we present a new continuum model to investigate how the growth-induced elastic stresses and active stress relaxation, in conjunction with cell size control feedback machinery, regulate the cell density and stress distributions within growing tumors as well as the tumor sizes in the presence of external physical confinement and gradients of growth-promoting chemical fields. We introduce an adaptive reference map that relates the current position with the reference position but adapts to the current position in the Eulerian frame (lab coordinates) via relaxation. This type of stress relaxation is similar to but simpler than the classical Maxwell model of viscoelasticity in its formulation. By fitting the model to experimental data from two independent studies of tumor spheroid growth and their cell density distributions, treating the tumors as incompressible, neo-Hookean elastic materials, we find that the rates of stress relaxation of tumor tissues can be comparable to volumetric growth rates. Our study provides insight on how the biophysical properties of the tumor and host microenvironment, mechanical feedback control and diffusion-limited differential growth act in concert to regulate spatial patterns of stress and growth. When the tumor is stiffer than the host, our model predicts tumors are more able to change their size and mechanical state autonomously, which may help to explain why increased tumor stiffness is an established hallmark of malignant tumors., Author summary The mechanical state of cells can modulate their growth and division dynamics via mechanotransduction, which affects both the cell size distribution and the tissue size as a whole. Experiments on tumor spheroids have shown that compressive stress from their environment can reversibly decrease tumor expansion rates and final sizes. Besides external confinement and compression on the tumor border, a heterogeneous stress field can be generated inside the tumor by nutrient-driven differential growth. Such growth-induced mechanical stresses can be relaxed by tissue rearrangement, which happens during cell neighbor exchanges, cell divisions, and extracellular matrix renewal. In this study, we have developed a continuum model that describes the above mechanical interactions and the dynamics of tissue rearrangement explicitly. Motivated by published experimental data, we consider mechanotransduction where the local compressive stress slows down cell growth and cell size reduction limits cell division. We have analyzed how external mechanical stimuli and internal processes influence the outcome of cell-and-tissue sizes and spatial patterns of cell density and mechanical stress in growing tumors.

Stay-at-home orders and shutdowns of non-essential businesses are powerful, but socially costly, tools to control the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2. Mass testing strategies, which rely on widely administered frequent and rapid diagnostics to identify and isolate infected individuals, could be a potentially less disruptive management strategy, particularly where vaccine access is limited. In this paper, we assess the extent to which mass testing and isolation strategies can reduce reliance on socially costly non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as distancing and shutdowns. We develop a multi-compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission incorporating both preventative non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and testing and isolation to evaluate their combined effect on public health outcomes. Our model is designed to be a policy-guiding tool that captures important realities of the testing system, including constraints on test administration and non-random testing allocation. We show how strategic changes in the characteristics of the testing system, including test administration, test delays, and test sensitivity, can reduce reliance on preventative NPIs without compromising public health outcomes in the future. The lowest NPI levels are possible only when many tests are administered and test delays are short, given limited immunity in the population. Reducing reliance on NPIs is highly dependent on the ability of a testing program to identify and isolate unreported, asymptomatic infections. Changes in NPIs, including the intensity of lockdowns and stay at home orders, should be coordinated with increases in testing to ensure epidemic control; otherwise small additional lifting of these NPIs can lead to dramatic increases in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Importantly, our results can be used to guide ramp-up of testing capacity in outbreak settings, allow for the flexible design of combined interventions based on social context, and inform future cost-benefit analyses to identify efficient pandemic management strategies., Author summary The global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the strategies used to manage it have come at significant societal costs. We analyze how mixed control strategies, which utilize interventions that prevent new infections from occurring (e.g., distancing or shut-downs) and others that actively search for and isolate existing infections (here, mass testing), can achieve improved public health outcomes while avoiding severe socio-economic burdens. Our results suggest that increasing testing capacity, including the number of tests available and the speed at which test results are provided, can reduce reliance on costly preventative interventions. Such reduction is possible with more isolation of active infections, including those without reported symptoms. However, failing to maintain preventative interventions without sufficient testing capacity can lead to large increases in infection burdens. By defining the combined effect of these interventions through mathematical models, this study provides insight into relaxation of distancing measures, and lays the groundwork for future public health economics analyses on the cost-effectiveness of combined management strategies.

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations most affected. Given their density and available infrastructure, refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements can be particularly susceptible to disease spread. In this paper we present an agent-based modeling approach to simulating the spread of disease in refugee and IDP settlements under various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. The model, based on the June open-source framework, is informed by data on geography, demographics, comorbidities, physical infrastructure and other parameters obtained from real-world observations and previous literature. The development and testing of this approach focuses on the Cox’s Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh, although our model is designed to be generalizable to other informal settings. Our findings suggest the encouraging self-isolation at home of mild to severe symptomatic patients, as opposed to the isolation of all positive cases in purpose-built isolation and treatment centers, does not increase the risk of secondary infection meaning the centers can be used to provide hospital support to the most intense cases of COVID-19. Secondly we find that mask wearing in all indoor communal areas can be effective at dampening viral spread, even with low mask efficacy and compliance rates. Finally, we model the effects of reopening learning centers in the settlement under various mitigation strategies. For example, a combination of mask wearing in the classroom, halving attendance regularity to enable physical distancing, and better ventilation can almost completely mitigate the increased risk of infection which keeping the learning centers open may cause. These modeling efforts are being incorporated into decision making processes to inform future planning, and further exercises should be carried out in similar geographies to help protect those most vulnerable., Author summary The spread of infectious diseases presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world. Given their density and available infrastructure, refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements can be particularly susceptible to the dangers of disease spread. This study seeks to understand how COVID-19 spreads in settlements, focusing on the Cox’s Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh. Our model simulates the movements and interactions of each individual in the settlement, incorporating information about family structures and demographic attributes, to understand how COVID-19 might spread under various intervention strategies. Our analysis suggests that mask wearing in indoor locations can have a significant effect on disease spread, even when wearing reusable cotton masks, which the people in the settlement can make themselves. We also look at different ways to treat individuals who only have milder symptoms and don’t yet require hospitalisation, as well as various scenarios which might allow for the safe reopening of schools in the settlement. With almost 80 million forcibly displaced people in the world, we hope that this work will inspire more modeling groups to focus on these vulnerable populations, which have been traditionally under-served by such efforts, to ensure no one is left behind.

System identification techniques -- projection pursuit regression models (PPRs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) -- provide state-of-the-art performance in predicting visual cortical neurons' responses to arbitrary input stimuli. However, the constituent kernels recovered by these methods are often noisy and lack coherent structure, making it difficult to understand the underlying component features of a neuron's receptive field. In this paper, we show that using a dictionary of diverse kernels with complex shapes learned from natural scenes based on efficient coding theory, as the front-end for PPRs and CNNs can improve their performance in neuronal response prediction as well as algorithmic data efficiency and convergence speed. Extensive experimental results also indicate that these sparse-code kernels provide important information on the component features of a neuron's receptive field. In addition, we find that models with the complex-shaped sparse code front-end are significantly better than models with a standard orientation-selective Gabor filter front-end for modeling V1 neurons that have been found to exhibit complex pattern selectivity. We show that the relative performance difference due to these two front-ends can be used to produce a sensitive metric for detecting complex selectivity in V1 neurons., 22 pages

Working memory is a cognitive function involving the storage and manipulation of latent information over brief intervals of time, thus making it crucial for context-dependent computation. Here, we use a top-down modeling approach to examine network-level mechanisms of working memory, an enigmatic issue and central topic of study in neuroscience. We optimize thousands of recurrent rate-based neural networks on a working memory task and then perform dynamical systems analysis on the ensuing optimized networks, wherein we find that four distinct dynamical mechanisms can emerge. In particular, we show the prevalence of a mechanism in which memories are encoded along slow stable manifolds in the network state space, leading to a phasic neuronal activation profile during memory periods. In contrast to mechanisms in which memories are directly encoded at stable attractors, these networks naturally forget stimuli over time. Despite this seeming functional disadvantage, they are more efficient in terms of how they leverage their attractor landscape and paradoxically, are considerably more robust to noise. Our results provide new hypotheses regarding how working memory function may be encoded within the dynamics of neural circuits., Author summary The ability to remember information for brief periods of time before using it is a key human ability. For example, retaining a phone number for a few moments prior to entering it into a keypad. Such ability, known as working memory, enables many more complex functions such as planning and reasoning. In this paper, we use theory and computational modeling approaches to try and better understand how circuits and networks in the brain might be achieving working memory. Specifically, we construct hypothetical network models to perform a task that embodies essential aspects of working memory. We then dissect our model to reveal how its components—simulated neural units—interact with each other to represent and maintain information. It turns out that some models can achieve memory by maintaining a fixed representation over time, i.e., the units remain ‘still’ during memory. However, other models fluctuate their activity during memory in a particular way that is seemingly quite efficient and less susceptible to distraction. In total, our computational study provides new theory for how this form of memory might be implemented in brain networks.

Animals rely on sensory feedback to generate accurate, reliable movements. In many flying insects, strain-sensitive neurons on the wings provide rapid feedback that is critical for stable flight control. While the impacts of wing structure on aerodynamic performance have been widely studied, the impacts of wing structure on sensing are largely unexplored. In this paper, we show how the structural properties of the wing and encoding by mechanosensory neurons interact to jointly determine optimal sensing strategies and performance. Specifically, we examine how neural sensors can be placed effectively on a flapping wing to detect body rotation about different axes, using a computational wing model with varying flexural stiffness. A small set of mechanosensors, conveying strain information at key locations with a single action potential per wingbeat, enable accurate detection of body rotation. Optimal sensor locations are concentrated at either the wing base or the wing tip, and they transition sharply as a function of both wing stiffness and neural threshold. Moreover, the sensing strategy and performance is robust to both external disturbances and sensor loss. Typically, only five sensors are needed to achieve near-peak accuracy, with a single sensor often providing accuracy well above chance. Our results show that small-amplitude, dynamic signals can be extracted efficiently with spatially and temporally sparse sensors in the context of flight. The demonstrated interaction of wing structure and neural encoding properties points to the importance of understanding each in the context of their joint evolution., Author summary In addition to generating forces for flight, insect wings also serve an important role as sensory structures, providing rapid feedback about wing bending that is used to stabilize flight. While much is known about how wing structure affects aerodynamic performance, the effects of wing structure on sensing remain unexplored. Using a computational model of a flapping wing, we examine how sensing strategies depend on wing stiffness and sensor properties. We show that body rotations can be accurately detected with a small number of sensors on the wing across a wide range of conditions. Optimal sensor locations are clustered at either the wing base or wing tip, depending on a combination of wing stiffness and sensor properties. Moreover, sensing performance is robust to multiple kinds of perturbations. Our work provides a basis for understanding how wing structure impacts incoming sensory information during flight.

Decision-making about pandemic mitigation often relies upon simulation modelling. Models of disease transmission through networks of contacts--between individuals or between population centres--are increasingly used for these purposes. Real-world contact networks are rich in structural features that influence infection transmission, such as tightly-knit local communities that are weakly connected to one another. In this paper, we propose a new flow-based edge-betweenness centrality method for detecting bottleneck edges that connect nodes in contact networks. In particular, we utilize convex optimization formulations based on the idea of diffusion with p-norm network flow. Using simulation models of COVID-19 transmission through real network data at both individual and county levels, we demonstrate that targeting bottleneck edges identified by the proposed method reduces the number of infected cases by up to 10% more than state-of-the-art edge-betweenness methods. Furthermore, the proposed method is orders of magnitude faster than existing methods., Comment: 38 pages, 21 figures

Recent advancements in in situ methods, such as multiplexed in situ RNA hybridization and in situ RNA sequencing, have deepened our understanding of the way biological processes are spatially organized in tissues. Automated image processing and spot-calling algorithms for analyzing in situ transcriptomics images have many parameters which need to be tuned for optimal detection. Having ground truth datasets (images where there is very high confidence on the accuracy of the detected spots) is essential for evaluating these algorithms and tuning their parameters. We present a first-in-kind open-source toolkit and framework for in situ transcriptomics image analysis that incorporates crowdsourced annotations, alongside expert annotations, as a source of ground truth for the analysis of in situ transcriptomics images. The kit includes tools for preparing images for crowdsourcing annotation to optimize crowdsourced workers’ ability to annotate these images reliably, performing quality control (QC) on worker annotations, extracting candidate parameters for spot-calling algorithms from sample images, tuning parameters for spot-calling algorithms, and evaluating spot-calling algorithms and worker performance. These tools are wrapped in a modular pipeline with a flexible structure that allows users to take advantage of crowdsourced annotations from any source of their choice. We tested the pipeline using real and synthetic in situ transcriptomics images and annotations from the Amazon Mechanical Turk system obtained via Quanti.us. Using real images from in situ experiments and simulated images produced by one of the tools in the kit, we studied worker sensitivity to spot characteristics and established rules for annotation QC. We explored and demonstrated the use of ground truth generated in this way for validating spot-calling algorithms and tuning their parameters, and confirmed that consensus crowdsourced annotations are a viable substitute for expert-generated ground truth for these purposes., Author summary To understand important biological processes such as development, wound healing, and disease, it is necessary to study where different genes are expressed in a tissue. RNA molecules can be visualized within tissues by using in situ transcriptomics tools, which use fluorescent probes that bind to specific RNA target molecules and appear in microscopy images as bright spots. Algorithms can be used to find the locations of these spots, but ground truth datasets (images with spots located to high accuracy) are needed to evaluate these algorithms and tune their parameters. While the typical way of generating ground truth datasets is having an expert annotate the spots by hand, many in situ transcriptomics image datasets are too large for this. However, it is often easy for non-experts to identify the spots with minimal training. In this paper, we present an open-source toolkit and framework that incorporates crowdsourced annotations alongside expert annotations as a source of ground truth for the analysis of in situ transcriptomics images. We explored and demonstrated the use of this framework for validating spot-calling algorithms and tuning their parameters, and confirmed that consensus crowdsourced annotations are a viable substitute for expert-generated ground truth.

Ethanol is one of the most widely used recreational substances in the world and due to its ubiquitous use, ethanol abuse has been the cause of over 3.3 million deaths each year. In addition to its effects, ethanol’s primary metabolite, acetaldehyde, is a carcinogen that can cause symptoms of facial flushing, headaches, and nausea. How strongly ethanol or acetaldehyde affects an individual depends highly on the genetic polymorphisms of certain genes. In particular, the genetic polymorphisms of mitochondrial aldehyde dehydrogenase, ALDH2, play a large role in the metabolism of acetaldehyde. Thus, it is important to characterize how genetic variations can lead to different exposures and responses to ethanol and acetaldehyde. While the pharmacokinetics of ethanol metabolism through alcohol dehydrogenase have been thoroughly explored in previous studies, in this paper, we combined a base physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model with a whole-body genome-scale model (WBM) to gain further insight into the effect of other less explored processes and genetic variations on ethanol metabolism. This combined model was fit to clinical data and used to show the effect of alcohol concentrations, organ damage, ALDH2 enzyme polymorphisms, and ALDH2-inhibiting drug disulfiram on ethanol and acetaldehyde exposure. Through estimating the reaction rates of auxiliary processes with dynamic Flux Balance Analysis, The PBPK-WBM was able to navigate around a lack of kinetic constants traditionally associated with PK modelling and demonstrate the compensatory effects of the body in response to decreased liver enzyme expression. Additionally, the model demonstrated that acetaldehyde exposure increased with higher dosages of disulfiram and decreased ALDH2 efficiency, and that moderate consumption rates of ethanol could lead to unexpected accumulations in acetaldehyde. This modelling framework combines the comprehensive steady-state analyses from genome-scale models with the dynamics of traditional PK models to create a highly personalized form of PBPK modelling that can push the boundaries of precision medicine., Author summary Alcohol is a widely used recreational drug in many parts of the world and it is often abused or misused, leading to the deaths of millions of people each year from driving under the influence and overdose. Additionally, the body breaks down alcohol into acetaldehyde, a carcinogen that has its own effects ranging from headaches and nausea to liver damage. The effects of ethanol and acetaldehyde vary due to genetic variations that create different forms of the enzymes responsible for breaking them down. Due to these differences, it is important to characterize how these changes affect the metabolism of alcohol and acetaldehyde. To capture these differences, we have created a new model that integrates the traditional pharmacokinetic model with a whole-body genome-scale model that can characterize different genetic variations. In addition, traditional models often require experimentally measured data, yet with this new framework we avoid this tedious process by mathematically solving the genome-scale model with the dynamic Flux Balance Analysis technique, allowing for gap filling. Through this model, we show that the whole-body genome-scale model demonstrates flexibility and robustness that has not been seen before in pharmacokinetic models. Our model combines advantages from both pharmacokinetic and genome-scale modelling and can be personalized to characterize individual reactions to other drugs and further precision medicine.

The origin of life involved complicated evolutionary processes. Computer modeling is a promising way to reveal relevant mechanisms. However, due to the limitation of our knowledge on prebiotic chemistry, it is usually difficult to justify parameter-setting for the modeling. Thus, typically, the studies were conducted in a reverse way: the parameter-space was explored to find those parameter values “supporting” a hypothetical scene (that is, leaving the parameter-justification a later job when sufficient knowledge is available). Exploring the parameter-space manually is an arduous job (especially when the modeling becomes complicated) and additionally, difficult to characterize as regular “Methods” in a paper. Here we show that a machine-learning-like approach may be adopted, automatically optimizing the parameters. With this efficient parameter-exploring approach, the evolutionary modeling on the origin of life would become much more powerful. In particular, based on this, it is expected that more near-reality (complex) models could be introduced, and thereby theoretical research would be more tightly associated with experimental investigation in this field–hopefully leading to significant steps forward in respect to our understanding on the origin of life., Author summary People have long been interested in the evolutionary processes through which life on our planet could have arisen from a non-life background. However, it seems that experimental studies in this field are proceeding slowly, perhaps owing to the complication of such processes. In the meantime, computer modeling has shown its potential to disclose the evolutionary mechanisms involved. Now a major difficulty of the computer modeling work is to justify the parameter-setting–on account of our limited knowledge on prebiotic chemistry and environments. Thus, people tend to explore the parameter space to seek parameter values in favor of the hypothetic scene and leave the parameter-justification a later job when sufficient knowledge is available. To date, the parameter-exploration is usually conducted manually (in many cases by trial and error), thus arduous and unpredictable. Inspired by the algorithm of machine-learning, we designed an automatic approach of parameter-exploration. The results showed that the approach is quite effective–that is, “good” parameter-sets in favor of hypothetic scenes in the origin of life can be found automatically. It is expected that such a machine-learning-like method would greatly enhance the efficiency of our evolutionary modeling studies on the origin of life in future.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection results in millions of hospitalizations and thousands of deaths each year. Variations in the adaptive and innate immune response appear to be associated with RSV severity. To investigate the host response to RSV infection in infants, we performed a systems-level study of RSV pathophysiology, incorporating high-throughput measurements of the peripheral innate and adaptive immune systems and the airway epithelium and microbiota. We implemented a novel multi-omic data integration method based on multilayered principal component analysis, penalized regression, and feature weight back-propagation, which enabled us to identify cellular pathways associated with RSV severity. In both airway and immune cells, we found an association between RSV severity and activation of pathways controlling Th17 and acute phase response signaling, as well as inhibition of B cell receptor signaling. Dysregulation of both the humoral and mucosal response to RSV may play a critical role in determining illness severity., Author summary This paper presents a novel approach to understanding the localized molecular responses to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and the system-level correlates of clinical outcomes. To do this, we developed a novel statistical method able to integrate high dimensional molecular data characterizing the host airway microbota and immune and nasal gene expression. We show that this integrative approach facilitates superior performance in estimating clinical outcome as opposed to any single data type. Using this approach, we identified both cell type-specific and shared biomarkers and regulatory pathways associated with RSV severity. Specifically, we identified an association between RSV severity, activation of pathways controlling Th17, and inhibition of B cell receptor signaling, which were present in both the site of infection airway and in peripheral immune cells. These results can guide future efforts to identify biomarkers for identifying or predicting illness severity following infant RSV infection. They may also be useful as biomarkers to inform the efficacy of future interventions (e.g., therapies) or preventative measures to suppress the rate of severe disease (e.g., vaccines).

Cross-linked actin networks are the primary component of the cell cytoskeleton and have been the subject of numerous experimental and modeling studies. While these studies have demonstrated that the networks are viscoelastic materials, evolving from elastic solids on short timescales to viscous fluids on long ones, questions remain about the duration of each asymptotic regime, the role of the surrounding fluid, and the behavior of the networks on intermediate timescales. Here we perform detailed simulations of passively cross-linked non-Brownian actin networks to quantify the principal timescales involved in the elastoviscous behavior, study the role of nonlocal hydrodynamic interactions, and parameterize continuum models from discrete stochastic simulations. To do this, we extend our recent computational framework for semiflexible filament suspensions, which is based on nonlocal slender body theory, to actin networks with dynamic cross linkers and finite filament lifetime. We introduce a model where the cross linkers are elastic springs with sticky ends stochastically binding to and unbinding from the elastic filaments, which randomly turn over at a characteristic rate. We show that, depending on the parameters, the network evolves to a steady state morphology that is either an isotropic actin mesh or a mesh with embedded actin bundles. For different degrees of bundling, we numerically apply small-amplitude oscillatory shear deformation to extract three timescales from networks of hundreds of filaments and cross linkers. We analyze the dependence of these timescales, which range from the order of hundredths of a second to the actin turnover time of several seconds, on the dynamic nature of the links, solvent viscosity, and filament bending stiffness. We show that the network is mostly elastic on the short time scale, with the elasticity coming mainly from the cross links, and viscous on the long time scale, with the effective viscosity originating primarily from stretching and breaking of the cross links. We show that the influence of nonlocal hydrodynamic interactions depends on the network morphology: for homogeneous meshworks, nonlocal hydrodynamics gives only a small correction to the viscous behavior, but for bundled networks it both hinders the formation of bundles and significantly lowers the resistance to shear once bundles are formed. We use our results to construct three-timescale generalized Maxwell models of the networks., Author summary The cytoskeleton is composed of semiflexible, inextensible actin filaments, dynamic cross linkers, and molecular motors, and makes the primary contribution to the structural properties of the cell. Despite its being so fundamental to cell biology, the biological complexity of the cytoskeleton hinders our ability to understand its mechanical properties through in vitro experiments. In this paper, we perform microscopic simulations of actin fibers and transient cross linkers to quantify the principle timescales involved in the network, study how these timescales influence the morphology and rheology of the system, and examine the role of hydrodynamic interactions in cytoskeletal networks. We find three principle timescales which we associate with fiber flexibility, cross linker detachment, and network remodeling, respectively. We show that the morphology of the network is more important on longer timescales, where the viscosity of links inside of fiber bundles is enhanced. We also show that hydrodynamic interactions reduce the stress inside of bundles because of entrainment flows. Finally, we propose a continuum model which can be used to coarse-grain our agent-based simulations and enable modeling of larger systems.

Machine learning algorithms, including recent advances in deep learning, are promising for tools for detection and classification of broadband high frequency signals in passive acoustic recordings. However, these methods are generally data-hungry and progress has been limited by challenges related to the lack of labeled datasets adequate for training and testing. Large quantities of known and as yet unidentified broadband signal types mingle in marine recordings, with variability introduced by acoustic propagation, source depths and orientations, and interacting signals. Manual classification of these datasets is unmanageable without an in-depth knowledge of the acoustic context of each recording location. A signal classification pipeline is presented which combines unsupervised and supervised learning phases with opportunities for expert oversight to label signals of interest. The method is illustrated with a case study using unsupervised clustering to identify five toothed whale echolocation click types and two anthropogenic signal categories. These categories are used to train a deep network to classify detected signals in either averaged time bins or as individual detections, in two independent datasets. Bin-level classification achieved higher overall precision (>99%) than click-level classification. However, click-level classification had the advantage of providing a label for every signal, and achieved higher overall recall, with overall precision from 92 to 94%. The results suggest that unsupervised learning is a viable solution for efficiently generating the large, representative training sets needed for applications of deep learning in passive acoustics., Author summary Machine learning algorithms have proven to be effective for tools for detection and classification tasks in many fields, however, these processes are generally data-hungry and their use in marine acoustics has been limited by a lack of large labeled datasets for algorithms to learn from. In underwater acoustic recordings, many signals generated by animals, human activities and physical processes mingle together, and their sounds can change depending on ocean temperatures, locations, and behavior. Manual classification of these datasets is unmanageable without an in-depth knowledge of the acoustic context of each recording location. This paper presents a process which combines unsupervised and supervised learning phases and expert oversight to generate and use large datasets for acoustic classification of marine mammal and human-generated signals. Unsupervised learning is used to automatically generate the large training datasets needed to teach a supervised learning algorithm to correctly classify seven different signal types commonly recorded in the Southern California Bight. Using this process, researchers with large unlabeled acoustic datasets can begin to take advantage of widespread advances in machine learning.

Variants of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model of Kermack & McKendrick (1927) enjoy wide application in epidemiology, offering simple yet powerful inferential and predictive tools in the study of diverse infectious diseases across human, animal and plant populations. Direct transmission models (DTM) are a subset of these that treat the processes of disease transmission as comprising a series of discrete instantaneous events. Infections transmitted indirectly by persistent environmental pathogens, however, are examples where a DTM description might fail and are perhaps better described by models that comprise explicit environmental transmission routes, so-called environmental transmission models (ETM). In this paper we discuss the stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) DTM and susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-pathogen (SEIR-P) ETM and we show that the former is the timescale separation limit of the latter, with ETM host-disease dynamics increasingly resembling those of a DTM when the pathogen’s characteristic timescale is shortened, relative to that of the host population. Using graphical posterior predictive checks (GPPC), we investigate the validity of the SEIR model when fitted to simulated SEIR-P host infection and removal times. Such analyses demonstrate how, in many cases, the SEIR model is robust to departure from direct transmission. Finally, we present a case study of white spot disease (WSD) in penaeid shrimp with rates of environmental transmission and pathogen decay (SEIR-P model parameters) estimated using published results of experiments. Using SEIR and SEIR-P simulations of a hypothetical WSD outbreak management scenario, we demonstrate how relative shortening of the pathogen timescale comes about in practice. With atttempts to remove diseased shrimp from the population every 24h, we see SEIR and SEIR-P model outputs closely conincide. However, when removals are 6-hourly, the two models’ mean outputs diverge, with distinct predictions of outbreak size and duration., Author summary Mathematical models of the spread and progression of communicable disease in populations are important tools in efforts to prevent and control outbreaks. A common class of disease models assume that infection is transmitted directly from infectious to susceptible individuals when they are in close proximity—so called direct transmission models. These are used widely and have proven invaluable as simplified descriptions of a wide array of infectious diseases in diverse populations. However, many pathogens spread through indirect, environmental routes of transmission, for example via contact with contaminated water sources in the case of cholera, or inhalation of infectious airborne droplets for respiratory infections, such as Covid-19. We show that direct transmission models work well for such pathogens with short environmental lifetimes and where hosts shed pathogens into the environment at high rates. This means that we do not require information about environmental pathogen levels to understand the behaviour of outbreaks caused by these pathogens. When shedding rates are also low, e.g., with macroparasitic infections, or when variable environmental factors play a role in transmissibility, then explicit modelling of both the pathogen and environmental transmission will provide a more accurate picture than a direct transmission approximation.

Regulation of cytosolic calcium (Ca2+) dynamics is fundamental to microglial function. Temporal and spatial Ca2+ fluxes are induced from a complicated signal transduction pathway linked to brain ionic homeostasis. In this paper, we develop a novel biophysical model of Ca2+ and sodium (Na+) dynamics in human microglia and evaluate the contribution of purinergic receptors (P2XRs) to both intracellular Ca2+ and Na+ levels in response to agonist/ATP binding. This is the first comprehensive model that integrates P2XRs to predict intricate Ca2+ and Na+ transient responses in microglia. Specifically, a novel compact biophysical model is proposed for the capture of whole-cell patch-clamp currents associated with P2X4 and P2X7 receptors, which is composed of only four state variables. The entire model shows that intricate intracellular ion dynamics arise from the coupled interaction between P2X4 and P2X7 receptors, the Na+/Ca2+ exchanger (NCX), Ca2+ extrusion by the plasma membrane Ca2+ ATPase (PMCA), and Ca2+ and Na+ leak channels. Both P2XRs are modelled as two separate adenosine triphosphate (ATP) gated Ca2+ and Na+ conductance channels, where the stoichiometry is the removal of one Ca2+ for the hydrolysis of one ATP molecule. Two unique sets of model parameters were determined using an evolutionary algorithm to optimise fitting to experimental data for each of the receptors. This allows the proposed model to capture both human P2X7 and P2X4 data (hP2X7 and hP2X4). The model architecture enables a high degree of simplicity, accuracy and predictability of Ca2+ and Na+ dynamics thus providing quantitative insights into different behaviours of intracellular Na+ and Ca2+ which will guide future experimental research. Understanding the interactions between these receptors and other membrane-bound transporters provides a step forward in resolving the qualitative link between purinergic receptors and microglial physiology and their contribution to brain pathology., Author summary Mathematical modelling and computer simulation are powerful tools by which we can analyse complex biological systems, particularly, neural phenomena involved in brain dysfunction. In this research, we develop a theoretical foundation for studying P2X-mediated calcium and sodium signalling in human microglial cells. Microglia, which are brain-resident macrophages, restructure their intracellular actin cytoskeleton to enable motility; this restructuring requires a complex molecular cascade involving a set of ionic channels, membrane-coupled receptors and cytosolic components. Recent studies highlight the importance for increasing our understanding of microglia physiology, since their functions play critical roles in both normal physiological and pathological dynamics of the brain. There is a need to develop reliable human cellular models to investigate the biology of microglia aimed at understanding the influence of purinergic signalling in brain dysfunction to provide novel drug discovery targets. In this work, a detailed mathematical model is built for the dynamics of human P2XRs in microglia. Subsequently, experimental whole-cell currents are used to derive P2X-mediated electrophysiology of human microglia (i.e. sodium and calcium dynamics, and membrane potential). Our predictions reveal new quantitative insights into P2XRs on how they regulate ionic concentrations in terms of physiological interactions and transient responses.

The spatial distribution of visual items allows us to infer the presence of latent causes in the world. For instance, a spatial cluster of ants allows us to infer the presence of a common food source. However, optimal inference requires the integration of a computationally intractable number of world states in real world situations. For example, optimal inference about whether a common cause exists based on N spatially distributed visual items requires marginalizing over both the location of the latent cause and 2N possible affiliation patterns (where each item may be affiliated or non-affiliated with the latent cause). How might the brain approximate this inference? We show that subject behaviour deviates qualitatively from Bayes-optimal, in particular showing an unexpected positive effect of N (the number of visual items) on the false-alarm rate. We propose several “point-estimating” observer models that fit subject behaviour better than the Bayesian model. They each avoid a costly computational marginalization over at least one of the variables of the generative model by “committing” to a point estimate of at least one of the two generative model variables. These findings suggest that the brain may implement partially committal variants of Bayesian models when detecting latent causes based on complex real world data., Author summary Perceptual systems are designed to make sense of fragmented sensory data by inferring common, latent causes. Seeing a cluster of insects might allow us to infer the presence of a common food source, whereas the same number of insects scattered over a larger area of land might not evoke the same suspicions. The ability to reliably make this inference based on statistical information about the environment is surprisingly non-trivial: making the best possible inference requires making full use of the probabilistic information provided by the sensory data, which would require considering a combinatorially explosive number of hypothetical world states. In this paper, we test human subjects on their ability to perform a causal detection task: subjects are asked to judge whether an underlying cause of clustering is present or absent, based on the spatial distribution of those items. We show that subjects do not reason optimally on this task, and that particular computational short cuts (“committing” to certain world states over others, rather than representing them all) might underlie perceptual decision-making in these causal detection schemes.

There has been a spate of interest in association networks in biological and medical research, for example, genetic interaction networks. In this paper, we propose a novel method, the extended joint hub graphical lasso (EDOHA), to estimate multiple related interaction networks for high dimensional omics data across multiple distinct classes. To be specific, we construct a convex penalized log likelihood optimization problem and solve it with an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm. The proposed method can also be adapted to estimate interaction networks for high dimensional compositional data such as microbial interaction networks. The performance of the proposed method in the simulated studies shows that EDOHA has remarkable advantages in recognizing class-specific hubs than the existing comparable methods. We also present three applications of real datasets. Biological interpretations of our results confirm those of previous studies and offer a more comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanism in disease., Author summary Reconstruction of multiple association networks from high dimensional omics data is an important topic, especially in biology. Previous studies focused on estimating different networks and detecting common hubs among all classes. Integration of information over different classes of data while allowing the difference in the hub nodes is also biologically plausible. Therefore, we propose a method, EDOHA, to jointly construct multiple interaction networks with the capacity in finding different hub networks for each class of data. Simulation studies show better performance over conventional methods. The method has been demonstrated in three real-world data.

To facilitate the development of large-scale transcriptional regulatory networks (TRNs) that may enable in-silico analyses of disease mechanisms, a reliable catalogue of experimentally verified direct transcriptional regulatory interactions (DTRIs) is needed for training and validation. There has been a long history of using low-throughput experiments to validate single DTRIs. Therefore, we reason that a reliable set of DTRIs could be produced by curating the published literature for such evidence. In our survey of previous curation efforts, we identified the lack of details about the quantity and the types of experimental evidence to be a major gap, despite the theoretical importance of such details for the identification of bona fide DTRIs. We developed a curation protocol to inspect the published literature for support of DTRIs at the experiment level, focusing on genes important to the development of the mammalian nervous system. We sought to record three types of low-throughput experiments: Transcription factor (TF) perturbation, TF-DNA binding, and TF-reporter assays. Using this protocol, we examined a total of 1,310 papers to assemble a collection of 1,499 unique DTRIs, involving 251 TFs and 825 target genes, many of which were not reported in any other DTRI resource. The majority of DTRIs (965; 64%) were supported by two or more types of experimental evidence and 27% were supported by all three. Of the DTRIs with all three types of evidence, 170 had been tested using primary tissues or cells and 44 had been tested directly in the central nervous system. We used our resource to document research biases among reports towards a small number of well-studied TFs. To demonstrate a use case for this resource, we compared our curation to a previously published high-throughput perturbation screen and found significant enrichment of the curated targets among genes differentially expressed in the developing brain in response to Pax6 deletion. This study demonstrates a proof-of-concept for the assembly of a high resolution DTRI resource to support the development of large-scale TRNs., Author summary The capacity to computationally reconstruct gene regulatory networks using large-scale biological data is currently limited by the absence of a high confidence set of one-to-one regulatory interactions. Given the lengthy history of using small scale experimental assays to investigate individual interactions, we reason that a reliable collection of gene regulatory interactions could be compiled by systematically inspecting the published literature. To this end, we developed a curation protocol to examine and record evidence of regulatory interactions at the individual experiment level. Focusing on the area of brain development, we applied our pipeline to 1,310 publications. We identified 3,601 individual experiments, providing detailed information about 1,499 regulatory interactions. Many of these interactions have verified activity specifically in the embryonic brain. By capturing reports of regulatory interactions at this level of detail, we equip the users with more granular information than other similar resources, enabling more informed assessments of reliability.

Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design. This paper outlines the Optima TB framework and how it was applied in Belarus, an upper-middle income country in Eastern Europe with a relatively high burden of TB. Optima TB is a population-based disease transmission model, with programmatic cost functions and an optimisation algorithm. Modelled populations include age-differentiated general populations and higher-risk populations such as people living with HIV. Populations and prospective interventions are defined in consultation with local stakeholders. In partnership with the latter, demographic, epidemiological, programmatic, as well as cost and spending data for these populations and interventions are then collated. An optimisation analysis of TB spending was conducted in Belarus, using program objectives and constraints defined in collaboration with local stakeholders, which included experts, decision makers, funders and organisations involved in service delivery, support and technical assistance. These analyses show that it is possible to improve health impact by redistributing current TB spending in Belarus. Specifically, shifting funding from inpatient- to outpatient-focused care models, and from mass screening to active case finding strategies, could reduce TB prevalence and mortality by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035. In addition, an optimised allocation of TB spending could lead to a reduction in drug-resistant TB infections by 40% over this period. This would support progress towards national TB targets without additional financial resources. The case study in Belarus demonstrates how reallocations of spending across existing and new interventions could have a substantial impact on TB outcomes. This highlights the potential for Optima TB and similar modelling tools to support evidence-based priority setting., Author summary Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading global cause of death and morbidity, and 85% of deaths occur in countries where resources for TB care and control are limited. Many countries cannot finance all TB interventions or technologies, which means difficult decisions on what to prioritise and publically finance. Modelling tools can help decision-makers set priorities based on evidence, in a systematic and transparent way. This study presents Optima TB, a tool that estimates which allocations of spending across interventions will most likely maximise specified objectives—such as minimising TB deaths, prevalence and incidence. In partnership with local decision-makers and stakeholders, Optima TB was applied in Belarus. Recommendations from the model findings include focussing investment on outpatient rather than inpatient care and actively finding people with TB (e.g. through contact tracing) rather than mass testing of the population. The recommended reallocations of spending could reduce TB prevalence and deaths by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035 for the same amount of spending. Key stakeholders were engaged throughout the analysis and findings and uncertainty around the results were clearly communicated with decision-makers. The timeliness of the results helped inform national dialogue on TB care reform, among other key policy discussions.

A current strategy for obtaining haplotype information from several individuals involves short-read sequencing of pooled amplicons, where fragments from each individual is identified by a unique DNA barcode. In this paper, we report a new method to recover the phylogeny of haplotypes from short-read sequences obtained using pooled amplicons from a mixture of individuals, without barcoding. The method, AFPhyloMix, accepts an alignment of the mixture of reads against a reference sequence, obtains the single-nucleotide-polymorphisms (SNP) patterns along the alignment, and constructs the phylogenetic tree according to the SNP patterns. AFPhyloMix adopts a Bayesian inference model to estimate the phylogeny of the haplotypes and their relative abundances, given that the number of haplotypes is known. In our simulations, AFPhyloMix achieved at least 80% accuracy at recovering the phylogenies and relative abundances of the constituent haplotypes, for mixtures with up to 15 haplotypes. AFPhyloMix also worked well on a real data set of kangaroo mitochondrial DNA sequences., Author summary In evolutionary studies, it is customary to obtain homologous sequences from different individuals in a population or a species to construct a phylogeny. Frequently, sequences from different individuals will be identical; we refer to a set of identical sequences as a haplotype. If short-read sequencing technologies are used to obtain sequences from many individuals, the sequence from each individual is tagged with a unique barcode, and a mixed sample of tagged sequences is subsequently sequenced. The tagged sequences can be identified using the appropriate bioinformatics tools, for further downstream analyses. We have developed a novel method, AFPhyloMix, to reconstruct the phylogeny of a mixed sample of homologous sequences, and the relative abundance of different haplotypes, from different individuals without the need for barcoding. AFPhyloMix aligns the short reads obtained to a reference alignment, and identifies the variable sites along the alignment. On the basis of the patterns of nucleotide frequencies at these and neighbouring sites, AFPhyloMix uses a Bayesian inference model to compute the phylogenetic tree and the haplotype relative abundances. Our results show that AFPhyloMix works well on both the simulated data set and the real data set.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes country-specific demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, long-term care facilities, and communities; age-specific disease outcomes; and intrahost viral dynamics, including viral-load-based transmissibility. Covasim also supports an extensive set of interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing and protective equipment; pharmaceutical interventions, including vaccination; and testing interventions, such as symptomatic and asymptomatic testing, isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. These interventions can incorporate the effects of delays, loss-to-follow-up, micro-targeting, and other factors. Implemented in pure Python, Covasim has been designed with equal emphasis on performance, ease of use, and flexibility: realistic and highly customized scenarios can be run on a standard laptop in under a minute. In collaboration with local health agencies and policymakers, Covasim has already been applied to examine epidemic dynamics and inform policy decisions in more than a dozen countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America., Author summary Mathematical models have played an important role in helping countries around the world decide how to best tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we describe a COVID-19 model, called Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), that we developed to help answer these questions. Covasim can be tailored to the local context by using detailed data on the population (such as the population age distribution and number of contacts between people) and the epidemic (such as diagnosed cases and reported deaths). While Covasim can be used to explore theoretical research questions or to make projections, its main purpose is to evaluate the effect of different interventions on the epidemic. These interventions include physical interventions (mobility restrictions and masks), diagnostic interventions (testing, contact tracing, and quarantine), and pharmaceutical interventions (vaccination). Covasim is open-source, written in Python, and comes with extensive documentation, tutorials, and a webapp to ensure it can be used as easily and broadly as possible. In partnership with local stakeholders, Covasim has been used to answer policy and research questions in more than a dozen countries, including India, the United States, Vietnam, and Australia.

Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics., Comment: 17 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables (1 in appendix), 1 algorithm, submitted to PLOS Computational Biology