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The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dendritic cells (DCs) are the most effective professional antigen-presenting cell. They ferry antigen from the extremities to T cells and are essential for the initiation of an adaptive immune response. Despite interest in how DCs respond to chemical stimuli, there have been few attempts to model DC migration. In this paper, we simulate the motility of DCs by modeling the generation of forces by filopodia and a force balance on the cell. The direction of fliopodial extension is coupled to differential occupancy of cognate chemokine receptors across the cell. Our model simulates chemokinesis and chemotaxis in a variety of chemical and mechanical environments. Simulated DCs undergoing chemokinesis were measured to have a speed of 5.1 ± 0.07 μm·min-1 and a persistence time of 3.2 ± 0.46 min, consistent with experiment. Cells undergoing chemotaxis exhibited a stronger chemotactic response when exposed to lower average chemokine concentrations, also consistent with experiment. We predicted that when placed in two opposing gradients, cells will cluster in a line, which we call the “line of equistimulation;” this clustering has also been observed. We calculated the effect of varying gradient steepness on the line of equistimulation, with steeper gradients resulting in tighter clustering. Moreover, gradients are found to be most potent when cells are in a gradient of chemokine whose mean concentration is close to the binding of the Kd to the receptor, and least potent when the mean concentration is 0.1Kd. Comparing our simulations to experiment, we can give a quantitative measure of the strength of certain chemokines relative to others. Assigning the signal of CCL19 binding CCR7 a baseline strength of 1, we found CCL21 binding CCR7 had a strength of 0.28, and CXCL12 binding CXCR4 had a strength of 0.30. These differences emerge despite both chemokines having virtually the same Kd, suggesting a mechanism of signal amplification in DCs requiring further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prophylactic interventions such as vaccine allocation are some of the most effective public health policy planning tools. The supply of vaccines, however, is limited and an important challenge is to optimally allocate the vaccines to minimize epidemic impact. This resource allocation question (which we refer to as VID) has multiple dimensions: when, where, to whom, etc. Most of the existing literature in this topic deals with the latter (to whom), proposing policies that prioritize individuals by age and disease risk. However, since seasonal influenza spread has a typical spatial trend, and due to the temporal constraints enforced by the availability schedule, the when and where problems become equally, if not more, relevant. In this paper, we study the VID problem in the context of seasonal influenza spread in the United States. We develop a national scale metapopulation model for influenza that integrates both short and long distance human mobility, along with realistic data on vaccine uptake. We also design GA, a greedy algorithm for allocating the vaccine supply at the state level under temporal constraints and show that such a strategy improves over the current baseline of pro-rata allocation, and the improvement is more pronounced for higher vaccine efficacy and moderate flu season intensity. Further, the resulting strategy resembles a ring vaccination applied spatiallyacross the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The olfactory system faces the difficult task of identifying an enormous variety of odors independent of their intensity. Primacy coding, where the odor identity is encoded by the receptor types that respond earliest, might provide a compact and informative representation that can be interpreted efficiently by the brain. In this paper, we analyze the information transmitted by a simple model of primacy coding using numerical simulations and statistical descriptions. We show that the encoded information depends strongly on the number of receptor types included in the primacy representation, but only weakly on the size of the receptor repertoire. The representation is independent of the odor intensity and the transmitted information is useful to perform typical olfactory tasks with close to experimentally measured performance. Interestingly, we find situations in which a smaller receptor repertoire is advantageous for discriminating odors. The model also suggests that overly sensitive receptor types could dominate the entire response and make the whole array useless, which allows us to predict how receptor arrays need to adapt to stay useful during environmental changes. Taken together, we show that primacy coding is more useful than simple binary and normalized coding, essentially because the sparsity of the odor representations is independent of the odor statistics, in contrast to the alternatives. Primacy coding thus provides an efficient odor representation that is independent of the odor intensity and might thus help to identify odors in the olfactory cortex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important goal in researching the biology of olfaction is to link the perception of smells to the chemistry of odorants. In other words, why do some odorants smell like fruits and others like flowers? While the so-called stimulus-percept issue was resolved in the field of color vision some time ago, the relationship between the chemistry and psycho-biology of odors remains unclear up to the present day. Although a series of investigations have demonstrated that this relationship exists, the descriptive and explicative aspects of the proposed models that are currently in use require greater sophistication. One reason for this is that the algorithms of current models do not consistently consider the possibility that multiple chemical rules can describe a single quality despite the fact that this is the case in reality, whereby two very different molecules can evoke a similar odor. Moreover, the available datasets are often large and heterogeneous, thus rendering the generation of multiple rules without any use of a computational approach overly complex. We considered these two issues in the present paper. First, we built a new database containing 1689 odorants characterized by physicochemical properties and olfactory qualities. Second, we developed a computational method based on a subgroup discovery algorithm that discriminated perceptual qualities of smells on the basis of physicochemical properties. Third, we ran a series of experiments on 74 distinct olfactory qualities and showed that the generation and validation of rules linking chemistry to odor perception was possible. Taken together, our findings provide significant new insights into the relationship between stimulus and percept in olfaction. In addition, by automatically extracting new knowledge linking chemistry of odorants and psychology of smells, our results provide a new computational framework of analysis enabling scientists in the field to test original hypotheses using descriptive or predictive modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging evidence has shown microRNAs (miRNAs) play an important role in human disease research. Identifying potential association among them is significant for the development of pathology, diagnose and therapy. However, only a tiny portion of all miRNA-disease pairs in the current datasets are experimentally validated. This prompts the development of high-precision computational methods to predict real interaction pairs. In this paper, we propose a new model of Logistic Model Tree for predicting miRNA-Disease Association (LMTRDA) by fusing multi-source information including miRNA sequences, miRNA functional similarity, disease semantic similarity, and known miRNA-disease associations. In particular, we introduce miRNA sequence information and extract its features using natural language processing technique for the first time in the miRNA-disease prediction model. In the cross-validation experiment, LMTRDA obtained 90.51% prediction accuracy with 92.55% sensitivity at the AUC of 90.54% on the HMDD V3.0 dataset. To further evaluate the performance of LMTRDA, we compared it with different classifier and feature descriptor models. In addition, we also validate the predictive ability of LMTRDA in human diseases including Breast Neoplasms, Breast Neoplasms and Lymphoma. As a result, 28, 27 and 26 out of the top 30 miRNAs associated with these diseases were verified by experiments in different kinds of case studies. These experimental results demonstrate that LMTRDA is a reliable model for predicting the association among miRNAs and diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian adaptive dual controller (ADC) for autonomously programming deep brain stimulation devices. We evaluated the Bayesian ADC’s performance in the context of reducing beta power in a computational model of Parkinson’s disease, in which it was tasked with finding the set of stimulation parameters which optimally reduced beta power as fast as possible. Here, the Bayesian ADC has dual goals: (a) to minimize beta power by exploiting the best parameters found so far, and (b) to explore the space to find better parameters, thus allowing for better control in the future. The Bayesian ADC is composed of two parts: an inner parameterized feedback stimulator and an outer parameter adjustment loop. The inner loop operates on a short time scale, delivering stimulus based upon the phase and power of the beta oscillation. The outer loop operates on a long time scale, observing the effects of the stimulation parameters and using Bayesian optimization to intelligently select new parameters to minimize the beta power. We show that the Bayesian ADC can efficiently optimize stimulation parameters, and is superior to other optimization algorithms. The Bayesian ADC provides a robust and general framework for tuning stimulation parameters, can be adapted to use any feedback signal, and is applicable across diseases and stimulator designs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifts in perceptual boundaries resulting from speech motor learning induced by perturbations of the auditory feedback were taken as evidence for the involvement of motor functions in auditory speech perception. Beyond this general statement, the precise mechanisms underlying this involvement are not yet fully understood. In this paper we propose a quantitative evaluation of some hypotheses concerning the motor and auditory updates that could result from motor learning, in the context of various assumptions about the roles of the auditory and somatosensory pathways in speech perception. This analysis was made possible thanks to the use of a Bayesian model that implements these hypotheses by expressing the relationships between speech production and speech perception in a joint probability distribution. The evaluation focuses on how the hypotheses can (1) predict the location of perceptual boundary shifts once the perturbation has been removed, (2) account for the magnitude of the compensation in presence of the perturbation, and (3) describe the correlation between these two behavioral characteristics. Experimental findings about changes in speech perception following adaptation to auditory feedback perturbations serve as reference. Simulations suggest that they are compatible with a framework in which motor adaptation updates both the auditory-motor internal model and the auditory characterization of the perturbed phoneme, and where perception involves both auditory and somatosensory pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Noise is a prevalent and sometimes even dominant aspect of many biological processes. While many natural systems have adapted to attenuate or even usefully integrate noise, the variability it introduces often still delimits the achievable precision across biological functions. This is particularly so for visual phototransduction, the process responsible for converting photons of light into usable electrical signals (quantum bumps). Here, randomness of both the photon inputs (regarded as extrinsic noise) and the conversion process (intrinsic noise) are seen as two distinct, independent and significant limitations on visual reliability. Past research has attempted to quantify the relative effects of these noise sources by using approximate methods that do not fully account for the discrete, point process and time ordered nature of the problem. As a result the conclusions drawn from these different approaches have led to inconsistent expositions of phototransduction noise performance. This paper provides a fresh and complete analysis of the relative impact of intrinsic and extrinsic noise in invertebrate phototransduction using minimum mean squared error reconstruction techniques based on Bayesian point process (Snyder) filters. An integrate-fire based algorithm is developed to reliably estimate photon times from quantum bumps and Snyder filters are then used to causally estimate random light intensities both at the front and back end of the phototransduction cascade. Comparison of these estimates reveals that the dominant noise source transitions from extrinsic to intrinsic as light intensity increases. By extending the filtering techniques to account for delays, it is further found that among the intrinsic noise components, which include bump latency (mean delay and jitter) and shape (amplitude and width) variance, it is the mean delay that is critical to noise performance. As the timeliness of visual information is important for real-time action, this delay could potentially limit the speed at which invertebrates can respond to stimuli. Consequently, if one wants to increase visual fidelity, reducing the photoconversion lag is much more important than improving the regularity of the electrical signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mammalian hippocampus plays a crucial role in producing a cognitive map of space—an internalized representation of the animal’s environment. We have previously shown that it is possible to model this map formation using a topological framework, in which information about the environment is transmitted through the temporal organization of neuronal spiking activity, particularly those occasions in which the firing of different place cells overlaps. In this paper, we discuss how gamma rhythm, one of the main components of the extracellular electrical field potential affects the efficiency of place cell map formation. Using methods of algebraic topology and the maximal entropy principle, we demonstrate that gamma modulation synchronizes the spiking of dynamical cell assemblies, which enables learning a spatial map at faster timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has recently been suggested that movement variability directly increases the speed of motor learning. Here we use computational modeling of motor adaptation to show that variability can have a broad range of effects on learning, both negative and positive. Experimentally, we also find contributing and decelerating effects. Lastly, through a meta-analysis of published papers, we verify that across a wide range of experiments, movement variability has no statistical relation with learning rate. While motor learning is a complex process that can be modeled, further research is needed to understand the relative importance of the involved factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author discusses aspects of her career and system approaches to stress response in eukaryotes. Topics include protein expression associated to environmental stress, project management, and motivation for laboratory members. In addition, she also presents advice to beginning researchers and principal investigators (PIs).

The article presents author's comments on the rules that should be considered during retirement. It focuses on the retirement in computational biology. It offers information on autobiographical perspective on biomedical data. It focuses on the need for expertise in science, technology, engineering, and medicine (STEM).

Seasonal influenza is a sometimes surprisingly impactful disease, causing thousands of deaths per year along with much additional morbidity. Timely knowledge of the outbreak state is valuable for managing an effective response. The current state of the art is to gather this knowledge using in-person patient contact. While accurate, this is time-consuming and expensive. This has motivated inquiry into new approaches using internet activity traces, based on the theory that lay observations of health status lead to informative features in internet data. These approaches risk being deceived by activity traces having a coincidental, rather than informative, relationship to disease incidence; to our knowledge, this risk has not yet been quantitatively explored. We evaluated both simulated and real activity traces of varying deceptiveness for influenza incidence estimation using linear regression. We found that deceptiveness knowledge does reduce error in such estimates, that it may help automatically-selected features perform as well or better than features that require human curation, and that a semantic distance measure derived from the Wikipedia article category tree serves as a useful proxy for deceptiveness. This suggests that disease incidence estimation models should incorporate not only data about how internet features map to incidence but also additional data to estimate feature deceptiveness. By doing so, we may gain one more step along the path to accurate, reliable disease incidence estimation using internet data. This capability would improve public health by decreasing the cost and increasing the timeliness of such estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although information theoretic approaches have been used extensively in the analysis of the neural code, they have yet to be used to describe how information is accumulated in time while sensory systems are categorizing dynamic sensory stimuli such as speech sounds or visual objects. Here, we present a novel method to estimate the cumulative information for stimuli or categories. We further define a time-varying categorical information index that, by comparing the information obtained for stimuli versus categories of these same stimuli, quantifies invariant neural representations. We use these methods to investigate the dynamic properties of avian cortical auditory neurons recorded in zebra finches that were listening to a large set of call stimuli sampled from the complete vocal repertoire of this species. We found that the time-varying rates carry 5 times more information than the mean firing rates even in the first 100 ms. We also found that cumulative information has slow time constants (100–600 ms) relative to the typical integration time of single neurons, reflecting the fact that the behaviorally informative features of auditory objects are time-varying sound patterns. When we correlated firing rates and information values, we found that average information correlates with average firing rate but that higher-rates found at the onset response yielded similar information values as the lower-rates found in the sustained response: the onset and sustained response of avian cortical auditory neurons provide similar levels of independent information about call identity and call-type. Finally, our information measures allowed us to rigorously define categorical neurons; these categorical neurons show a high degree of invariance for vocalizations within a call-type. Peak invariance is found around 150 ms after stimulus onset. Surprisingly, call-type invariant neurons were found in both primary and secondary avian auditory areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), one in twenty five hospital patients are infected with at least one healthcare acquired infection (HAI) on any given day. Early detection of possible HAI outbreaks help practitioners implement countermeasures before the infection spreads extensively. Here, we develop an efficient data and model driven method to detect outbreaks with high accuracy. We leverage mechanistic modeling of C. difficile infection, a major HAI disease, to simulate its spread in a hospital wing and design efficient near-optimal algorithms to select people and locations to monitor using an optimization formulation. Results show that our strategy detects up to 95% of “future” C. difficile outbreaks. We design our method by incorporating specific hospital practices (like swabbing for infections) as well. As a result, our method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms for outbreak detection. Finally, a qualitative study of our result shows that the people and locations we select to monitor as sensors are intuitive and meaningful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many models of classical conditioning fail to describe important phenomena, notably the rapid return of fear after extinction. To address this shortfall, evidence converged on the idea that learning agents rely on latent-state inferences, i.e. an ability to index disparate associations from cues to rewards (or penalties) and infer which index (i.e. latent state) is presently active. Our goal was to develop a model of latent-state inferences that uses latent states to predict rewards from cues efficiently and that can describe behavior in a diverse set of experiments. The resulting model combines a Rescorla-Wagner rule, for which updates to associations are proportional to prediction error, with an approximate Bayesian rule, for which beliefs in latent states are proportional to prior beliefs and an approximate likelihood based on current associations. In simulation, we demonstrate the model’s ability to reproduce learning effects both famously explained and not explained by the Rescorla-Wagner model, including rapid return of fear after extinction, the Hall-Pearce effect, partial reinforcement extinction effect, backwards blocking, and memory modification. Lastly, we derive our model as an online algorithm to maximum likelihood estimation, demonstrating it is an efficient approach to outcome prediction. Establishing such a framework is a key step towards quantifying normative and pathological ranges of latent-state inferences in various contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scientific method has been guiding biological research for a long time. It not only prescribes the order and types of activities that give a scientific study validity and a stamp of approval but also has substantially shaped how we collectively think about the endeavor of investigating nature. The advent of high-throughput data generation, data mining, and advanced computational modeling has thrown the formerly undisputed, monolithic status of the scientific method into turmoil. On the one hand, the new approaches are clearly successful and expect the same acceptance as the traditional methods, but on the other hand, they replace much of the hypothesis-driven reasoning with inductive argumentation, which philosophers of science consider problematic. Intrigued by the enormous wealth of data and the power of machine learning, some scientists have even argued that significant correlations within datasets could make the entire quest for causation obsolete. Many of these issues have been passionately debated during the past two decades, often with scant agreement. It is proffered here that hypothesis-driven, data-mining–inspired, and “allochthonous” knowledge acquisition, based on mathematical and computational models, are vectors spanning a 3D space of an expanded scientific method. The combination of methods within this space will most certainly shape our thinking about nature, with implications for experimental design, peer review and funding, sharing of result, education, medical diagnostics, and even questions of litigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many brain areas, sensory responses are heavily modulated by factors including attentional state, context, reward history, motor preparation, learned associations, and other cognitive variables. Modelling the effect of these modulatory factors on sensory responses has proven challenging, mostly due to the time-varying and nonlinear nature of the underlying computations. Here we present a computational model capable of capturing and dissociating multiple time-varying modulatory effects on neuronal responses on the order of milliseconds. The model’s performance is tested on extrastriate perisaccadic visual responses in nonhuman primates. Visual neurons respond to stimuli presented around the time of saccades differently than during fixation. These perisaccadic changes include sensitivity to the stimuli presented at locations outside the neuron’s receptive field, which suggests a contribution of multiple sources to perisaccadic response generation. Current computational approaches cannot quantitatively characterize the contribution of each modulatory source in response generation, mainly due to the very short timescale on which the saccade takes place. In this study, we use a high spatiotemporal resolution experimental paradigm along with a novel extension of the generalized linear model framework (GLM), termed the sparse-variable GLM, to allow for time-varying model parameters representing the temporal evolution of the system with a resolution on the order of milliseconds. We used this model framework to precisely map the temporal evolution of the spatiotemporal receptive field of visual neurons in the middle temporal area during the execution of a saccade. Moreover, an extended model based on a factorization of the sparse-variable GLM allowed us to disassociate and quantify the contribution of individual sources to the perisaccadic response. Our results show that our novel framework can precisely capture the changes in sensitivity of neurons around the time of saccades, and provide a general framework to quantitatively track the role of multiple modulatory sources over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the optimization objectives that shape shoot architectures remains a critical problem in plant biology. Here, we performed 3D scanning of 152 Arabidopsis shoot architectures, including wildtype and 10 mutant strains, and we uncovered a design principle that describes how architectures make trade-offs between competing objectives. First, we used graph-theoretic analysis to show that Arabidopsis shoot architectures strike a Pareto optimal that can be captured as maximizing performance in transporting nutrients and minimizing costs in building the architecture. Second, we identify small sets of genes that can be mutated to shift the weight prioritizing one objective over the other. Third, we show that this prioritization weight feature is significantly less variable across replicates of the same genotype compared to other common plant traits (e.g., number of rosette leaves, total volume occupied). This suggests that this feature is a robust descriptor of a genotype, and that local variability in structure may be compensated for globally in a homeostatic manner. Overall, our work provides a framework to understand optimization trade-offs made by shoot architectures and provides evidence that these trade-offs can be modified genetically, which may aid plant breeding and selection efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State-space and action representations form the building blocks of decision-making processes in the brain; states map external cues to the current situation of the agent whereas actions provide the set of motor commands from which the agent can choose to achieve specific goals. Although these factors differ across environments, it is currently unknown whether or how accurately state and action representations are acquired by the agent because previous experiments have typically provided this information a priori through instruction or pre-training. Here we studied how state and action representations adapt to reflect the structure of the world when such a priori knowledge is not available. We used a sequential decision-making task in rats in which they were required to pass through multiple states before reaching the goal, and for which the number of states and how they map onto external cues were unknown a priori. We found that, early in training, animals selected actions as if the task was not sequential and outcomes were the immediate consequence of the most proximal action. During the course of training, however, rats recovered the true structure of the environment and made decisions based on the expanded state-space, reflecting the multiple stages of the task. Similarly, we found that the set of actions expanded with training, although the emergence of new action sequences was sensitive to the experimental parameters and specifics of the training procedure. We conclude that the profile of choices shows a gradual shift from simple representations to more complex structures compatible with the structure of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new computational model of speech motor control: the Feedback-Aware Control of Tasks in Speech or FACTS model. FACTS employs a hierarchical state feedback control architecture to control simulated vocal tract and produce intelligible speech. The model includes higher-level control of speech tasks and lower-level control of speech articulators. The task controller is modeled as a dynamical system governing the creation of desired constrictions in the vocal tract, after Task Dynamics. Both the task and articulatory controllers rely on an internal estimate of the current state of the vocal tract to generate motor commands. This estimate is derived, based on efference copy of applied controls, from a forward model that predicts both the next vocal tract state as well as expected auditory and somatosensory feedback. A comparison between predicted feedback and actual feedback is then used to update the internal state prediction. FACTS is able to qualitatively replicate many characteristics of the human speech system: the model is robust to noise in both the sensory and motor pathways, is relatively unaffected by a loss of auditory feedback but is more significantly impacted by the loss of somatosensory feedback, and responds appropriately to externally-imposed alterations of auditory and somatosensory feedback. The model also replicates previously hypothesized trade-offs between reliance on auditory and somatosensory feedback and shows for the first time how this relationship may be mediated by acuity in each sensory domain. These results have important implications for our understanding of the speech motor control system in humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical methods of information theory appear to provide a useful language to describe how stimuli are encoded in activities of signaling effectors. Exploring the information-theoretic perspective, however, remains conceptually, experimentally and computationally challenging. Specifically, existing computational tools enable efficient analysis of relatively simple systems, usually with one input and output only. Moreover, their robust and readily applicable implementations are missing. Here, we propose a novel algorithm, SLEMI—statistical learning based estimation of mutual information, to analyze signaling systems with high-dimensional outputs and a large number of input values. Our approach is efficient in terms of computational time as well as sample size needed for accurate estimation. Analysis of the NF-κB single—cell signaling responses to TNF-α reveals that NF-κB signaling dynamics improves discrimination of high concentrations of TNF-α with a relatively modest impact on discrimination of low concentrations. Provided R-package allows the approach to be used by computational biologists with only elementary knowledge of information theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the challenging scientific problems faced by humanity. Topics discussed include information on the efforts to empower Africans to join the global neuroscience community; discussions on the BRAIN initiative in the U.S. and the Human Brain Project in Europe; and the information on the limiting factor for computational neuroscience development in Africa.

Living creatures must accurately infer the nature of their environments. They do this despite being confronted by stochastic and context sensitive contingencies—and so must constantly update their beliefs regarding their uncertainty about what might come next. In this work, we examine how we deal with uncertainty that evolves over time. This prospective uncertainty (or imprecision) is referred to as volatility and has previously been linked to noradrenergic signals that originate in the locus coeruleus. Using pupillary dilatation as a measure of central noradrenergic signalling, we tested the hypothesis that changes in pupil diameter reflect inferences humans make about environmental volatility. To do so, we collected pupillometry data from participants presented with a stream of numbers. We generated these numbers from a process with varying degrees of volatility. By measuring pupillary dilatation in response to these stimuli—and simulating the inferences made by an ideal Bayesian observer of the same stimuli—we demonstrate that humans update their beliefs about environmental contingencies in a Bayes optimal way. We show this by comparing general linear (convolution) models that formalised competing hypotheses about the causes of pupillary changes. We found greater evidence for models that included Bayes optimal estimates of volatility than those without. We additionally explore the interaction between different causes of pupil dilation and suggest a quantitative approach to characterising a person’s prior beliefs about volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging RNA-based approaches to disease detection and gene therapy require RNA sequences that fold into specific base-pairing patterns, but computational algorithms generally remain inadequate for these secondary structure design tasks. The Eterna project has crowdsourced RNA design to human video game players in the form of puzzles that reach extraordinary difficulty. Here, we demonstrate that Eterna participants’ moves and strategies can be leveraged to improve automated computational RNA design. We present an eternamoves-large repository consisting of 1.8 million of player moves on 12 of the most-played Eterna puzzles as well as an eternamoves-select repository of 30,477 moves from the top 72 players on a select set of more advanced puzzles. On eternamoves-select, we present a multilayer convolutional neural network (CNN) EternaBrain that achieves test accuracies of 51% and 34% in base prediction and location prediction, respectively, suggesting that top players’ moves are partially stereotyped. Pipelining this CNN’s move predictions with single-action-playout (SAP) of six strategies compiled by human players solves 61 out of 100 independent puzzles in the Eterna100 benchmark. EternaBrain-SAP outperforms previously published RNA design algorithms and achieves similar or better performance than a newer generation of deep learning methods, while being largely orthogonal to these other methods. Our study provides useful lessons for future efforts to achieve human-competitive performance with automated RNA design algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical modeling of behavioral sequences yields insight into the rules and mechanisms underlying sequence generation. Grooming in Drosophila melanogaster is characterized by repeated execution of distinct, stereotyped actions in variable order. Experiments demonstrate that, following stimulation by an irritant, grooming progresses gradually from an early phase dominated by anterior cleaning to a later phase with increased walking and posterior cleaning. We also observe that, at an intermediate temporal scale, there is a strong relationship between the amount of time spent performing body-directed grooming actions and leg-directed actions. We then develop a series of data-driven Markov models that isolate and identify the behavioral features governing transitions between individual grooming bouts. We identify action order as the primary driver of probabilistic, but non-random, syntax structure, as has previously been identified. Subsequent models incorporate grooming bout duration, which also contributes significantly to sequence structure. Our results show that, surprisingly, the syntactic rules underlying probabilistic grooming transitions possess action duration-dependent structure, suggesting that sensory input-independent mechanisms guide grooming behavior at short time scales. Finally, the inclusion of a simple rule that modifies grooming transition probabilities over time yields a generative model that recapitulates the key features of observed grooming sequences at several time scales. These discoveries suggest that sensory input guides action selection by modulating internally generated dynamics. Additionally, the discovery of these principles governing grooming in D. melanogaster demonstrates the utility of incorporating temporal information when characterizing the syntax of behavioral sequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans and other animals are able to discover underlying statistical structure in their environments and exploit it to achieve efficient and effective performance. However, such structure is often difficult to learn and use because it is obscure, involving long-range temporal dependencies. Here, we analysed behavioural data from an extended experiment with rats, showing that the subjects learned the underlying statistical structure, albeit suffering at times from immediate inferential imperfections as to their current state within it. We accounted for their behaviour using a Hidden Markov Model, in which recent observations are integrated with evidence from the past. We found that over the course of training, subjects came to track their progress through the task more accurately, a change that our model largely attributed to improved integration of past evidence. This learning reflected the structure of the task, decreasing reliance on recent observations, which were potentially misleading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computational modeling plays an important role in modern neuroscience research. Much previous research has relied on statistical methods, separately, to address two problems that are actually interdependent. First, given a particular computational model, Bayesian hierarchical techniques have been used to estimate individual variation in parameters over a population of subjects, leveraging their population-level distributions. Second, candidate models are themselves compared, and individual variation in the expressed model estimated, according to the fits of the models to each subject. The interdependence between these two problems arises because the relevant population for estimating parameters of a model depends on which other subjects express the model. Here, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian inference (HBI) framework for concurrent model comparison, parameter estimation and inference at the population level, combining previous approaches. We show that this framework has important advantages for both parameter estimation and model comparison theoretically and experimentally. The parameters estimated by the HBI show smaller errors compared to other methods. Model comparison by HBI is robust against outliers and is not biased towards overly simplistic models. Furthermore, the fully Bayesian approach of our theory enables researchers to make inference on group-level parameters by performing HBI t-test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differentiation between phenotypically neutral and disease-causing genetic variation remains an open and relevant problem. Among different types of variation, non-frameshifting insertions and deletions (indels) represent an understudied group with widespread phenotypic consequences. To address this challenge, we present a machine learning method, MutPred-Indel, that predicts pathogenicity and identifies types of functional residues impacted by non-frameshifting insertion/deletion variation. The model shows good predictive performance as well as the ability to identify impacted structural and functional residues including secondary structure, intrinsic disorder, metal and macromolecular binding, post-translational modifications, allosteric sites, and catalytic residues. We identify structural and functional mechanisms impacted preferentially by germline variation from the Human Gene Mutation Database, recurrent somatic variation from COSMIC in the context of different cancers, as well as de novo variants from families with autism spectrum disorder. Further, the distributions of pathogenicity prediction scores generated by MutPred-Indel are shown to differentiate highly recurrent from non-recurrent somatic variation. Collectively, we present a framework to facilitate the interrogation of both pathogenicity and the functional effects of non-frameshifting insertion/deletion variants. The MutPred-Indel webserver is available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cortical responses to sensory inputs vary across repeated presentations of identical stimuli, but how this trial-to-trial variability impacts detection of sensory inputs is not fully understood. Using multi-channel local field potential (LFP) recordings in primary somatosensory cortex (S1) of the awake mouse, we optimized a data-driven cortical state classifier to predict single-trial sensory-evoked responses, based on features of the spontaneous, ongoing LFP recorded across cortical layers. Our findings show that, by utilizing an ongoing prediction of the sensory response generated by this state classifier, an ideal observer improves overall detection accuracy and generates robust detection of sensory inputs across various states of ongoing cortical activity in the awake brain, which could have implications for variability in the performance of detection tasks across brain states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of a mass vaccination program can engender its own undoing if individuals choose to not get vaccinated believing that they are already protected by herd immunity. This would appear to be the optimal decision for an individual, based on a strategic appraisal of her costs and benefits, even though she would be vulnerable during subsequent outbreaks if the majority of the population argues in this manner. We investigate how voluntary vaccination can nevertheless emerge in a social network of rational agents, who make informed decisions whether to be vaccinated, integrated with a model of epidemic dynamics. The information available to each agent includes the prevalence of the disease in their local network neighborhood and/or globally in the population, as well as the fraction of their neighbors that are protected against the disease. Crucially, the payoffs governing the decision of agents vary with disease prevalence, resulting in the vaccine uptake behavior changing in response to contagion spreading. The collective behavior of the agents responding to local prevalence can lead to a significant reduction in the final epidemic size, particularly for less contagious diseases having low basic reproduction number . Near the epidemic threshold () the use of local prevalence information can result in divergent responses in the final vaccine coverage. Our results suggest that heterogeneity in the risk perception resulting from the spatio-temporal evolution of an epidemic differentially affects agents’ payoffs, which is a critical determinant of the success of voluntary vaccination schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The activity of neural populations in the brains of humans and animals can exhibit vastly different spatial patterns when faced with different tasks or environmental stimuli. The degrees of similarity between these neural activity patterns in response to different events are used to characterize the representational structure of cognitive states in a neural population. The dominant methods of investigating this similarity structure first estimate neural activity patterns from noisy neural imaging data using linear regression, and then examine the similarity between the estimated patterns. Here, we show that this approach introduces spurious bias structure in the resulting similarity matrix, in particular when applied to fMRI data. This problem is especially severe when the signal-to-noise ratio is low and in cases where experimental conditions cannot be fully randomized in a task. We propose Bayesian Representational Similarity Analysis (BRSA), an alternative method for computing representational similarity, in which we treat the covariance structure of neural activity patterns as a hyper-parameter in a generative model of the neural data. By marginalizing over the unknown activity patterns, we can directly estimate this covariance structure from imaging data. This method offers significant reductions in bias and allows estimation of neural representational similarity with previously unattained levels of precision at low signal-to-noise ratio, without losing the possibility of deriving an interpretable distance measure from the estimated similarity. The method is closely related to Pattern Component Model (PCM), but instead of modeling the estimated neural patterns as in PCM, BRSA models the imaging data directly and is suited for analyzing data in which the order of task conditions is not fully counterbalanced. The probabilistic framework allows for jointly analyzing data from a group of participants. The method can also simultaneously estimate a signal-to-noise ratio map that shows where the learned representational structure is supported more strongly. Both this map and the learned covariance matrix can be used as a structured prior for maximum a posteriori estimation of neural activity patterns, which can be further used for fMRI decoding. Our method therefore paves the way towards a more unified and principled analysis of neural representations underlying fMRI signals. We make our tool freely available in Brain Imaging Analysis Kit (BrainIAK). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent large cancer studies have measured somatic alterations in an unprecedented number of tumours. These large datasets allow the identification of cancer-related sets of genetic alterations by identifying relevant combinatorial patterns. Among such patterns, mutual exclusivity has been employed by several recent methods that have shown its effectiveness in characterizing gene sets associated to cancer. Mutual exclusivity arises because of the complementarity, at the functional level, of alterations in genes which are part of a group (e.g., a pathway) performing a given function. The availability of quantitative target profiles, from genetic perturbations or from clinical phenotypes, provides additional information that can be leveraged to improve the identification of cancer related gene sets by discovering groups with complementary functional associations with such targets. In this work we study the problem of finding groups of mutually exclusive alterations associated with a quantitative (functional) target. We propose a combinatorial formulation for the problem, and prove that the associated computational problem is computationally hard. We design two algorithms to solve the problem and implement them in our tool UNCOVER. We provide analytic evidence of the effectiveness of UNCOVER in finding high-quality solutions and show experimentally that UNCOVER finds sets of alterations significantly associated with functional targets in a variety of scenarios. In particular, we show that our algorithms find sets which are better than the ones obtained by the state-of-the-art method, even when sets are evaluated using the statistical score employed by the latter. In addition, our algorithms are much faster than the state-of-the-art, allowing the analysis of large datasets of thousands of target profiles from cancer cell lines. We show that on two such datasets, one from project Achilles and one from the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer project, UNCOVER identifies several significant gene sets with complementary functional associations with targets. Software available at: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Author summary Modern network science is a new and exciting research field that has transformed the study of complex systems over the last 2 decades. Of particular interest is the identification of small “network motifs” that might be embedded in a larger network and that indicate the presence of evolutionary design principles or have an overly influential role on system-wide dynamics. Motifs are patterns of interconnections, or subgraphs, that appear in an observed network significantly more often than in compatible randomized networks. The concept of network motifs was introduced into Systems Biology by Milo, Alon and colleagues in 2002, quickly revolutionized the field, and it has had a huge impact in wider scientific domains ever since. Here, we argue that the same concept and tools for the detection of motifs were well known in the ecological literature decades into the last century, a fact that is generally not recognized. We review the early history of network motifs, their evolution in the mathematics literature, and their recent rediscoveries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to correctly estimate the probability of one’s choices being correct is fundamental to optimally re-evaluate previous choices or to arbitrate between different decision strategies. Experimental evidence nonetheless suggests that this metacognitive process—confidence judgment- is susceptible to numerous biases. Here, we investigate the effect of outcome valence (gains or losses) on confidence while participants learned stimulus-outcome associations by trial-and-error. In two experiments, participants were more confident in their choices when learning to seek gains compared to avoiding losses, despite equal difficulty and performance between those two contexts. Computational modelling revealed that this bias is driven by the context-value, a dynamically updated estimate of the average expected-value of choice options, necessary to explain equal performance in the gain and loss domain. The biasing effect of context-value on confidence, revealed here for the first time in a reinforcement-learning context, is therefore domain-general, with likely important functional consequences. We show that one such consequence emerges in volatile environments, where the (in)flexibility of individuals’ learning strategies differs when outcomes are framed as gains or losses. Despite apparent similar behavior- profound asymmetries might therefore exist between learning to avoid losses and learning to seek gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary game dynamics in structured populations has been extensively explored in past decades. However, most previous studies assume that payoffs of individuals are fully determined by the strategic behaviors of interacting parties, and social ties between them only serve as the indicator of the existence of interactions. This assumption neglects important information carried by inter-personal social ties such as genetic similarity, geographic proximity, and social closeness, which may crucially affect the outcome of interactions. To model these situations, we present a framework of evolutionary multiplayer games on graphs with edge diversity, where different types of edges describe diverse social ties. Strategic behaviors together with social ties determine the resulting payoffs of interactants. Under weak selection, we provide a general formula to predict the success of one behavior over the other. We apply this formula to various examples which cannot be dealt with using previous models, including the division of labor and relationship- or edge-dependent games. We find that labor division can promote collective cooperation markedly. The evolutionary process based on relationship-dependent games can be approximated by interactions under a transformed and unified game. Our work stresses the importance of social ties and provides effective methods to reduce the calculating complexity in analyzing the evolution of realistic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing evidence has indicated that microRNAs(miRNAs) play vital roles in various pathological processes and thus are closely related with many complex human diseases. The identification of potential disease-related miRNAs offers new opportunities to understand disease etiology and pathogenesis. Although there have been numerous computational methods proposed to predict reliable miRNA-disease associations, they suffer from various limitations that affect the prediction accuracy and their applicability. In this study, we develop a novel method to discover disease-related candidate miRNAs based on Adaptive Multi-View Multi-Label learning(AMVML). Specifically, considering the inherent noise existed in the current dataset, we propose to learn a new affinity graph adaptively for both diseases and miRNAs from multiple similarity profiles. We then simultaneously update the miRNA-disease association predicted from both spaces based on multi-label learning. In particular, we prove the convergence of AMVML theoretically and the corresponding analysis indicates that it has a fast convergence rate. To comprehensively illustrate the prediction performance of our method, we compared AMVML with four state-of-the-art methods under different validation frameworks. As a result, our method achieves comparable performance under various evaluation metrics, which suggests that our method is capable of discovering greater number of true miRNA-disease associations. The case study conducted on thyroid neoplasms further identified a potential diagnostic biomarker. Together, the experimental results confirms the utility of our method and we anticipate that our method could serve as a reliable and efficient tool for uncovering novel disease-related miRNAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diving behaviour of narwhals is still largely unknown. We use Hidden Markov models (HMMs) to describe the diving behaviour of a narwhal and fit the models to a three-dimensional response vector of maximum dive depth, duration of dives and post-dive surface time of 8,609 dives measured in East Greenland over 83 days, an extraordinarily long and rich data set. Narwhal diving patterns have not been analysed like this before, but in studies of other whale species, response variables have been assumed independent. We extend the existing models to allow for dependence between state distributions, and show that the dependence has an impact on the conclusions drawn about the diving behaviour. We try several HMMs with 2, 3 or 4 states, and with independent and dependent log-normal and gamma distributions, respectively, and different covariates to characterize dive patterns. In particular, diurnal patterns in diving behaviour is inferred, by using periodic B-splines with boundary knots in 0 and 24 hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Nile virus (WNV)—a mosquito-borne arbovirus—entered the USA through New York City in 1999 and spread to the contiguous USA within three years while transitioning from epidemic outbreaks to endemic transmission. The virus is transmitted by vector competent mosquitoes and maintained in the avian populations. WNV spatial distribution is mainly determined by the movement of residential and migratory avian populations. We developed an individual-level heterogeneous network framework across the USA with the goal of understanding the long-range spatial distribution of WNV. To this end, we proposed three distance dispersal kernels model: 1) exponential—short-range dispersal, 2) power-law—long-range dispersal in all directions, and 3) power-law biased by flyway direction —long-range dispersal only along established migratory routes. To select the appropriate dispersal kernel we used the human case data and adopted a model selection framework based on approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo sampling (ABC-SMC). From estimated parameters, we find that the power-law biased by flyway direction kernel is the best kernel to fit WNV human case data, supporting the hypothesis of long-range WNV transmission is mainly along the migratory bird flyways. Through extensive simulation from 2014 to 2016, we proposed and tested hypothetical mitigation strategies and found that mosquito population reduction in the infected states and neighboring states is potentially cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the future consequences of actions is achievable by simulating a mental search tree into the future. Expanding deep trees, however, is computationally taxing. Therefore, machines and humans use a plan-until-habit scheme that simulates the environment up to a limited depth and then exploits habitual values as proxies for consequences that may arise in the future. Two outstanding questions in this scheme are “in which directions the search tree should be expanded?”, and “when should the expansion stop?”. Here we propose a principled solution to these questions based on a speed/accuracy tradeoff: deeper expansion in the appropriate directions leads to more accurate planning, but at the cost of slower decision-making. Our simulation results show how this algorithm expands the search tree effectively and efficiently in a grid-world environment. We further show that our algorithm can explain several behavioral patterns in animals and humans, namely the effect of time-pressure on the depth of planning, the effect of reward magnitudes on the direction of planning, and the gradual shift from goal-directed to habitual behavior over the course of training. The algorithm also provides several predictions testable in animal/human experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manipulating the dynamics of neural systems through targeted stimulation is a frontier of research and clinical neuroscience; however, the control schemes considered for neural systems are mismatched for the unique needs of manipulating neural dynamics. An appropriate control method should respect the variability in neural systems, incorporating moment to moment “input” to the neural dynamics and behaving based on the current neural state, irrespective of the past trajectory. We propose such a controller under a nonlinear state-space feedback framework that steers one dynamical system to function as through it were another dynamical system entirely. This “myopic” controller is formulated through a novel variant of a model reference control cost that manipulates dynamics in a short-sighted manner that only sets a target trajectory of a single time step into the future (hence its myopic nature), which omits the need to pre-calculate a rigid and computationally costly neural feedback control solution. To demonstrate the breadth of this control’s utility, two examples with distinctly different applications in neuroscience are studied. First, we show the myopic control’s utility to probe the causal link between dynamics and behavior for cognitive processes by transforming a winner-take-all decision-making system to operate as a robust neural integrator of evidence. Second, an unhealthy motor-like system containing an unwanted beta-oscillation spiral attractor is controlled to function as a healthy motor system, a relevant clinical example for neurological disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consideration of previous successes and failures is essential to mastering a motor skill. Much of what we know about how humans and animals learn from such reinforcement feedback comes from experiments that involve sampling from a small number of discrete actions. Yet, it is less understood how we learn through reinforcement feedback when sampling from a continuous set of possible actions. Navigating a continuous set of possible actions likely requires using gradient information to maximize success. Here we addressed how humans adapt the aim of their hand when experiencing reinforcement feedback that was associated with a continuous set of possible actions. Specifically, we manipulated the change in the probability of reward given a change in motor action—the reinforcement gradient—to study its influence on learning. We found that participants learned faster when exposed to a steep gradient compared to a shallow gradient. Further, when initially positioned between a steep and a shallow gradient that rose in opposite directions, participants were more likely to ascend the steep gradient. We introduce a model that captures our results and several features of motor learning. Taken together, our work suggests that the sensorimotor system relies on temporally recent and spatially local gradient information to drive learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voluntary movements are widely considered to be planned before they are executed. Recent studies have hypothesized that neural activity in motor cortex during preparation acts as an ‘initial condition’ which seeds the proceeding neural dynamics. Here, we studied these initial conditions in detail by investigating 1) the organization of neural states for different reaches and 2) the variance of these neural states from trial to trial. We examined population-level responses in macaque premotor cortex (PMd) during the preparatory stage of an instructed-delay center-out reaching task with dense target configurations. We found that after target onset the neural activity on single trials converges to neural states that have a clear low-dimensional structure which is organized by both the reach endpoint and maximum speed of the following reach. Further, we found that variability of the neural states during preparation resembles the spatial variability of reaches made in the absence of visual feedback: there is less variability in direction than distance in neural state space. We also used offline decoding to understand the implications of this neural population structure for brain-machine interfaces (BMIs). We found that decoding of angle between reaches is dependent on reach distance, while decoding of arc-length is independent. Thus, it might be more appropriate to quantify decoding performance for discrete BMIs by using arc-length between reach end-points rather than the angle between them. Lastly, we show that in contrast to the common notion that direction can better be decoded than distance, their decoding capabilities are comparable. These results provide new insights into the dynamical neural processes that underline motor control and can inform the design of BMIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A well-established notion in cognitive neuroscience proposes that multiple brain systems contribute to choice behaviour. These include: (1) a model-free system that uses values cached from the outcome history of alternative actions, and (2) a model-based system that considers action outcomes and the transition structure of the environment. The widespread use of this distinction, across a range of applications, renders it important to index their distinct influences with high reliability. Here we consider the two-stage task, widely considered as a gold standard measure for the contribution of model-based and model-free systems to human choice. We tested the internal/temporal stability of measures from this task, including those estimated via an established computational model, as well as an extended model using drift-diffusion. Drift-diffusion modeling suggested that both choice in the first stage, and RTs in the second stage, are directly affected by a model-based/free trade-off parameter. Both parameter recovery and the stability of model-based estimates were poor but improved substantially when both choice and RT were used (compared to choice only), and when more trials (than conventionally used in research practice) were included in our analysis. The findings have implications for interpretation of past and future studies based on the use of the two-stage task, as well as for characterising the contribution of model-based processes to choice behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grid cells have attracted broad attention because of their highly symmetric hexagonal firing patterns. Recently, research has shifted its focus from the global symmetry of grid cell activity to local distortions both in space and time, such as drifts in orientation, local defects of the hexagonal symmetry, and the decay and reappearance of grid patterns after changes in lighting condition. Here, we introduce a method that allows to visualize and quantify such local distortions, by assigning both a local grid score and a local orientation to each individual spike of a neuronal recording. The score is inspired by a standard measure from crystallography, which has been introduced to quantify local order in crystals. By averaging over spikes recorded within arbitrary regions or time periods, we can quantify local variations in symmetry and orientation of firing patterns in both space and time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food allergy is usually difficult to diagnose in early life, and the inability to diagnose patients with atopic diseases at an early age may lead to severe complications. Numerous studies have suggested an association between the infant gut microbiome and development of allergy. In this work, we investigated the capacity of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to predict food allergies in early life (0-3 years) from subjects’ longitudinal gut microbiome profiles. Using the DIABIMMUNE dataset, we show an increase in predictive power using our model compared to Hidden Markov Model, Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and LASSO regression. We further evaluated whether the training of LSTM networks benefits from reduced representations of microbial features. We considered sparse autoencoder for extraction of potential latent representations in addition to standard feature selection procedures based on Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) and variance prior to the training of LSTM networks. The comprehensive evaluation reveals that LSTM networks with the mRMR selected features achieve significantly better performance compared to the other tested machine learning models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In our daily lives timing of our actions plays an essential role when we navigate the complex everyday environment. It is an open question though how the representations of the temporal structure of the world influence our behavior. Here we propose a probabilistic model with an explicit representation of state durations which may provide novel insights in how the brain predicts upcoming changes. We illustrate several properties of the behavioral model using a standard reversal learning design and compare its task performance to standard reinforcement learning models. Furthermore, using experimental data, we demonstrate how the model can be applied to identify participants’ beliefs about the latent temporal task structure. We found that roughly one quarter of participants seem to have learned the latent temporal structure and used it to anticipate changes, whereas the remaining participants’ behavior did not show signs of anticipatory responses, suggesting a lack of precise temporal expectations. We expect that the introduced behavioral model will allow, in future studies, for a systematic investigation of how participants learn the underlying temporal structure of task environments and how these representations shape behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classical decision theory postulates that choices proceed from subjective values assigned to the probable outcomes of alternative actions. Some authors have argued that opposite causality should also be envisaged, with choices influencing subsequent values expressed in desirability ratings. The idea is that agents may increase their ratings of items that they have chosen in the first place, which has been typically explained by the need to reduce cognitive dissonance. However, evidence in favor of this reverse causality has been the topic of intense debates that have not reached consensus so far. Here, we take a novel approach using Bayesian techniques to compare models in which choices arise from stable (but noisy) underlying values (one-way causality) versus models in which values are in turn influenced by choices (two-way causality). Moreover, we examined whether in addition to choices, other components of previous actions, such as the effort invested and the eventual action outcome (success or failure), could also impact subsequent values. Finally, we assessed whether the putative changes in values were only expressed in explicit ratings, or whether they would also affect other value-related behaviors such as subsequent choices. Behavioral data were obtained from healthy participants in a rating-choice-rating-choice-rating paradigm, where the choice task involves deciding whether or not to exert a given physical effort to obtain a particular food item. Bayesian selection favored two-way causality models, where changes in value due to previous actions affected subsequent ratings, choices and action outcomes. Altogether, these findings may help explain how values and actions drift when several decisions are made successively, hence highlighting some shortcomings of classical decision theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]