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As more regions approach malaria elimination, understanding how different interventions interact to reduce transmission becomes critical. The Lake Kariba area of Southern Province, Zambia, is part of a multi-country elimination effort and presents a particular challenge as it is an interconnected region of variable transmission intensities. In 2012–13, six rounds of mass test-and-treat drug campaigns were carried out in the Lake Kariba region. A spatial dynamical model of malaria transmission in the Lake Kariba area, with transmission and climate modeled at the village scale, was calibrated to the 2012–13 prevalence survey data, with case management rates, insecticide-treated net usage, and drug campaign coverage informed by surveillance. The model captured the spatio-temporal trends of decline and rebound in malaria prevalence in 2012–13 at the village scale. Various interventions implemented between 2016–22 were simulated to compare their effects on reducing regional transmission and achieving and maintaining elimination through 2030. Simulations predict that elimination requires sustaining high coverage with vector control over several years. When vector control measures are well-implemented, targeted mass drug campaigns in high-burden areas further increase the likelihood of elimination, although drug campaigns cannot compensate for insufficient vector control. If infections are regularly imported from outside the region into highly receptive areas, vector control must be maintained within the region until importations cease. Elimination in the Lake Kariba region is possible, although human movement both within and from outside the region risk damaging the success of elimination programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers several rules for digital data storage. These include having a clear roadmap of what to expect before the start of data acquisition in order to avoid troubles encountered during the analysis, management, and release of data, identifying use cases to make data storage easier, and keeping raw data in raw format whenever possible.

Predators of all kinds, be they lions hunting in the Serengeti or fishermen searching for their catch, display various collective strategies. A common strategy is to share information about the location of prey. However, depending on the spatial characteristics and mobility of predators and prey, information sharing can either improve or hinder individual success. Here, our goal is to investigate the interacting effects of space and information sharing on predation efficiency, represented by the expected rate at which prey are found and consumed. We derive a feeding functional response that accounts for both spatio-temporal heterogeneity and communication, and validate this mathematical analysis with a computational agent-based model. This agent-based model has an explicit yet minimal representation of space, as well as information sharing about the location of prey. The analytical model simplifies predator behavior into a few discrete states and one essential trade-off, between the individual benefit of acquiring information and the cost of creating spatial and temporal correlation between predators. Despite the absence of an explicit spatial dimension in these equations, they quantitatively predict the predator consumption rates measured in the agent-based simulations across the explored parameter space. Together, the mathematical analysis and agent-based simulations identify the conditions for when there is a benefit to sharing information, and also when there is a cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systems as diverse as the interacting species in a community, alleles at a genetic locus, and companies in a market are characterized by competition (over resources, space, capital, etc) and adaptation. Neutral theory, built around the hypothesis that individual performance is independent of group membership, has found utility across the disciplines of ecology, population genetics, and economics, both because of the success of the neutral hypothesis in predicting system properties and because deviations from these predictions provide information about the underlying dynamics. However, most tests of neutrality are weak, based on static system properties such as species-abundance distributions or the number of singletons in a sample. Time-series data provide a window onto a system’s dynamics, and should furnish tests of the neutral hypothesis that are more powerful to detect deviations from neutrality and more informative about to the type of competitive asymmetry that drives the deviation. Here, we present a neutrality test for time-series data. We apply this test to several microbial time-series and financial time-series and find that most of these systems are not neutral. Our test isolates the covariance structure of neutral competition, thus facilitating further exploration of the nature of asymmetry in the covariance structure of competitive systems. Much like neutrality tests from population genetics that use relative abundance distributions have enabled researchers to scan entire genomes for genes under selection, we anticipate our time-series test will be useful for quick significance tests of neutrality across a range of ecological, economic, and sociological systems for which time-series data are available. Future work can use our test to categorize and compare the dynamic fingerprints of particular competitive asymmetries (frequency dependence, volatility smiles, etc) to improve forecasting and management of complex adaptive systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The activity of a biological community is the outcome of complex processes involving interactions between community members. It is often unclear how to accurately incorporate these interactions into predictive models. Previous work has shown a range of positive and negative metabolic pairwise interactions between species. Here we examine the ability of a modified general Lotka-Volterra model with cell-cell interaction coefficients to predict the overall metabolic rate of a well-mixed microbial community comprised of four heterotrophic natural isolates, experimentally quantifying the strengths of two, three, and four-species interactions. Within this community, interactions between any pair of microbial species were positive, while higher-order interactions, between 3 or more microbial species, slightly modulated community metabolism. For this simple community, the metabolic rate of can be well predicted only with taking into account pairwise interactions. Simulations using the experimentally determined interaction parameters revealed that spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of cells increased the importance of multispecies interactions in dictating function at both the local and global scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the virtuous cycle of a data ecosystem. Topics include the increasing creation of digital data of all types, the benefits of data sharing which include data remixing and combining, bias minimization and meta-analysis, and the growth of data collection techniques along with data aggregation and mining algorithms.

The authors discuss ancestral reconstruction which is an exploration of the measured characteristics of individuals or populations and common ancestors. The authors state that the ancestral reconstruction depends on the realistic model of evolution, particularly the actual evolutionary history. They mention the development and use of computational algorithms for ancestral reconstruction.

Bacterial communities are taxonomically highly diverse, yet the mechanisms that maintain this diversity remain poorly understood. We hypothesized that an obligate and mutual exchange of metabolites, as is very common among bacterial cells, could stabilize different genotypes within microbial communities. To test this, we developed a cellular automaton to model interactions among six empirically characterized genotypes that differ in their ability and propensity to produce amino acids. By systematically varying intrinsic (i.e. benefit-to-cost ratio) and extrinsic parameters (i.e. metabolite diffusion level, environmental amino acid availability), we show that obligate cross-feeding of essential metabolites is selected for under a broad range of conditions. In spatially structured environments, positive assortment among cross-feeders resulted in the formation of cooperative clusters, which limited exploitation by non-producing auxotrophs, yet allowed them to persist at the clusters’ periphery. Strikingly, cross-feeding helped to maintain genotypic diversity within populations, while amino acid supplementation to the environment decoupled obligate interactions and favored auxotrophic cells that saved amino acid production costs over metabolically autonomous prototrophs. Together, our results suggest that spatially structured environments and limited nutrient availabilities should facilitate the evolution of metabolic interactions, which can help to maintain genotypic diversity within natural microbial populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of disease prevalence in online search engine data (e.g., Google Flu Trends (GFT)) has received a considerable amount of scholarly and public attention in recent years. While the utility of search engine data for disease surveillance has been demonstrated, the scientific community still seeks ways to identify and reduce biases that are embedded in search engine data. The primary goal of this study is to explore new ways of improving the accuracy of disease prevalence estimations by combining traditional disease data with search engine data. A novel method, Biased Sentinel Hospital-based Area Disease Estimation (B-SHADE), is introduced to reduce search engine data bias from a geographical perspective. To monitor search trends on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Guangdong Province, China, we tested our approach by selecting 11 keywords from the Baidu index platform, a Chinese big data analyst similar to GFT. The correlation between the number of real cases and the composite index was 0.8. After decomposing the composite index at the city level, we found that only 10 cities presented a correlation of close to 0.8 or higher. These cities were found to be more stable with respect to search volume, and they were selected as sample cities in order to estimate the search volume of the entire province. After the estimation, the correlation improved from 0.8 to 0.864. After fitting the revised search volume with historical cases, the mean absolute error was 11.19% lower than it was when the original search volume and historical cases were combined. To our knowledge, this is the first study to reduce search engine data bias levels through the use of rigorous spatial sampling strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mutualistic cooperation often requires multiple individuals to behave in a coordinated fashion. Hence, while the evolutionary stability of mutualistic cooperation poses no particular theoretical difficulty, its evolutionary emergence faces a chicken and egg problem: an individual cannot benefit from cooperating unless other individuals already do so. Here, we use evolutionary robotic simulations to study the consequences of this problem for the evolution of cooperation. In contrast with standard game-theoretic results, we find that the transition from solitary to cooperative strategies is very unlikely, whether interacting individuals are genetically related (cooperation evolves in 20% of all simulations) or unrelated (only 3% of all simulations). We also observe that successful cooperation between individuals requires the evolution of a specific and rather complex behaviour. This behavioural complexity creates a large fitness valley between solitary and cooperative strategies, making the evolutionary transition difficult. These results reveal the need for research on biological mechanisms which may facilitate this transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a prebiotic RNA world, parasitic behaviour may be favoured because template dependent replication happens in trans, thus being altruistic. Spatially extended systems are known to reduce harmful effects of parasites. Here we present a spatial system to show that evolution of replication is (indirectly) enhanced by strong parasites, and we characterise the phase transition that leads to this mode of evolution. Building on the insights of this analysis, we identify two scenarios, namely periodic disruptions and longer replication time-span, in which speciation occurs and an evolved parasite-like lineage enables the evolutionary increase of replication rates in replicators. Finally, we show that parasites co-evolving with replicators are selected to become weaker, i.e. worse templates for replication when the duration of replication is increased. We conclude that parasites may not be considered a problem for evolution in a prebiotic system, but a degree of freedom that can be exploited by evolution to enhance the evolvability of replicators, by means of emergent levels of selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-throughput, ‘omic’ methods provide sensitive measures of biological responses to perturbations. However, inherent biases in high-throughput assays make it difficult to interpret experiments in which more than one type of data is collected. In this work, we introduce Omics Integrator, a software package that takes a variety of ‘omic’ data as input and identifies putative underlying molecular pathways. The approach applies advanced network optimization algorithms to a network of thousands of molecular interactions to find high-confidence, interpretable subnetworks that best explain the data. These subnetworks connect changes observed in gene expression, protein abundance or other global assays to proteins that may not have been measured in the screens due to inherent bias or noise in measurement. This approach reveals unannotated molecular pathways that would not be detectable by searching pathway databases. Omics Integrator also provides an elegant framework to incorporate not only positive data, but also negative evidence. Incorporating negative evidence allows Omics Integrator to avoid unexpressed genes and avoid being biased toward highly-studied hub proteins, except when they are strongly implicated by the data. The software is comprised of two individual tools, Garnet and Forest, that can be run together or independently to allow a user to perform advanced integration of multiple types of high-throughput data as well as create condition-specific subnetworks of protein interactions that best connect the observed changes in various datasets. It is available at and on GitHub at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complexity of metabolic networks in microbial communities poses an unresolved visualization and interpretation challenge. We address this challenge in the newly expanded version of a software tool for the analysis of biological networks, VisANT 5.0. We focus in particular on facilitating the visual exploration of metabolic interaction between microbes in a community, e.g. as predicted by COMETS (Computation of Microbial Ecosystems in Time and Space), a dynamic stoichiometric modeling framework. Using VisANT’s unique metagraph implementation, we show how one can use VisANT 5.0 to explore different time-dependent ecosystem-level metabolic networks. In particular, we analyze the metabolic interaction network between two bacteria previously shown to display an obligate cross-feeding interdependency. In addition, we illustrate how a putative minimal gut microbiome community could be represented in our framework, making it possible to highlight interactions across multiple coexisting species. We envisage that the “symbiotic layout” of VisANT can be employed as a general tool for the analysis of metabolism in complex microbial communities as well as heterogeneous human tissues. VisANT is freely available at: and COMETS at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social animals are capable of enhancing their awareness by paying attention to their neighbors, and prey found in groups can also confuse their predators. Both sides of these sensory benefits have long been appreciated, yet less is known of how the perception of events from the perspectives of both prey and predator can interact to influence their encounters. Here we examined how a visual sensory mechanism impacts the collective motion of prey and, subsequently, how their resulting movements influenced predator confusion and capture ability. We presented virtual prey to human players in a targeting game and measured the speed and accuracy with which participants caught designated prey. As prey paid more attention to neighbor movements their collective coordination increased, yet increases in prey coordination were positively associated with increases in the speed and accuracy of attacks. However, while attack speed was unaffected by the initial state of the prey, accuracy dropped significantly if the prey were already organized at the start of the attack, rather than in the process of self-organizing. By repeating attack scenarios and masking the targeted prey’s neighbors we were able to visually isolate them and conclusively demonstrate how visual confusion impacted capture ability. Delays in capture caused by decreased coordination amongst the prey depended upon the collection motion of neighboring prey, while it was primarily the motion of the targets themselves that determined capture accuracy. Interestingly, while a complete loss of coordination in the prey (e.g., a flash expansion) caused the greatest delay in capture, such behavior had little effect on capture accuracy. Lastly, while increases in collective coordination in prey enhanced personal risk, traveling in coordinated groups was still better than appearing alone. These findings demonstrate a trade-off between the sensory mechanisms that can enhance the collective properties that emerge in social animals and the individual group member’s predation risk during an attack. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbiome-based stratification of healthy individuals into compositional categories, referred to as “enterotypes” or “community types”, holds promise for drastically improving personalized medicine. Despite this potential, the existence of community types and the degree of their distinctness have been highly debated. Here we adopted a dynamic systems approach and found that heterogeneity in the interspecific interactions or the presence of strongly interacting species is sufficient to explain community types, independent of the topology of the underlying ecological network. By controlling the presence or absence of these strongly interacting species we can steer the microbial ecosystem to any desired community type. This open-loop control strategy still holds even when the community types are not distinct but appear as dense regions within a continuous gradient. This finding can be used to develop viable therapeutic strategies for shifting the microbial composition to a healthy configuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In food webs, many interacting species coexist despite the restrictions imposed by the competitive exclusion principle and apparent competition. For the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations, sustainable coexistence necessitates nonzero determinant of the interaction matrix. Here we show that this requirement is equivalent to demanding that each species be part of a non-overlapping pairing, which substantially constrains the food web structure. We demonstrate that a stable food web can always be obtained if a non-overlapping pairing exists. If it does not, the matrix rank can be used to quantify the lack of niches, corresponding to unpaired species. For the species richness at each trophic level, we derive the food web assembly rules, which specify sustainable combinations. In neighboring levels, these rules allow the higher level to avert competitive exclusion at the lower, thereby incorporating apparent competition. In agreement with data, the assembly rules predict high species numbers at intermediate levels and thinning at the top and bottom. Using comprehensive food web data, we demonstrate how omnivores or parasites with hosts at multiple trophic levels can loosen the constraints and help obtain coexistence in food webs. Hence, omnivory may be the glue that keeps communities intact even under extinction or ecological release of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the option, humans and other animals elect to distribute their time between work and leisure, rather than choosing all of one and none of the other. Traditional accounts of partial allocation have characterised behavior on a macroscopic timescale, reporting and studying the mean times spent in work or leisure. However, averaging over the more microscopic processes that govern choices is known to pose tricky theoretical problems, and also eschews any possibility of direct contact with the neural computations involved. We develop a microscopic framework, formalized as a semi-Markov decision process with possibly stochastic choices, in which subjects approximately maximise their expected returns by making momentary commitments to one or other activity. We show macroscopic utilities that arise from microscopic ones, and demonstrate how facets such as imperfect substitutability can arise in a more straightforward microscopic manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to impending anoxic conditions, denitrifying bacteria sustain respiratory metabolism by producing enzymes for reducing nitrogen oxyanions/-oxides (NOx) to N2 (denitrification). Since denitrifying bacteria are non-fermentative, the initial production of denitrification proteome depends on energy from aerobic respiration. Thus, if a cell fails to synthesise a minimum of denitrification proteome before O2 is completely exhausted, it will be unable to produce it later due to energy-limitation. Such entrapment in anoxia is recently claimed to be a major phenomenon in batch cultures of the model organism Paracoccus denitrificans on the basis of measured e−-flow rates to O2 and NOx. Here we constructed a dynamic model and explicitly simulated actual kinetics of recruitment of the cells to denitrification to directly and more accurately estimate the recruited fraction (). Transcription of nirS is pivotal for denitrification, for it triggers a cascade of events leading to the synthesis of a full-fledged denitrification proteome. The model is based on the hypothesis that nirS has a low probability (, h−1) of initial transcription, but once initiated, the transcription is greatly enhanced through positive feedback by NO, resulting in the recruitment of the transcribing cell to denitrification. We assume that the recruitment is initiated as [O2] falls below a critical threshold and terminates (assuming energy-limitation) as [O2] exhausts. With  = 0.005 h−1, the model robustly simulates observed denitrification kinetics for a range of culture conditions. The resulting (fraction of the cells recruited to denitrification) falls within 0.038–0.161. In contrast, if the recruitment of the entire population is assumed, the simulated denitrification kinetics deviate grossly from those observed. The phenomenon can be understood as a ‘bet-hedging strategy’: switching to denitrification is a gain if anoxic spell lasts long but is a waste of energy if anoxia turns out to be a ‘false alarm’. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many problems of cooperation involve repeated interactions among the same groups of individuals. When collective action is at stake, groups often engage in Public Goods Games (PGG), where individuals contribute (or not) to a common pool, subsequently sharing the resources. Such scenarios of repeated group interactions materialize situations in which direct reciprocation to groups may be at work. Here we study direct group reciprocity considering the complete set of reactive strategies, where individuals behave conditionally on what they observed in the previous round. We study both analytically and by computer simulations the evolutionary dynamics encompassing this extensive strategy space, witnessing the emergence of a surprisingly simple strategy that we call All-Or-None (AoN). AoN consists in cooperating only after a round of unanimous group behavior (cooperation or defection), and proves robust in the presence of errors, thus fostering cooperation in a wide range of group sizes. The principles encapsulated in this strategy share a level of complexity reminiscent of that found already in 2-person games under direct and indirect reciprocity, reducing, in fact, to the well-known Win-Stay-Lose-Shift strategy in the limit of the repeated 2-person Prisoner's Dilemma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of tick-borne pathogens represents an important threat to human and animal health in many parts of Eurasia. Here, we analysed a 9-year time series of Ixodes ricinus ticks feeding on Apodemus flavicollis mice (main reservoir-competent host for tick-borne encephalitis, TBE) sampled in Trentino (Northern Italy). The tail of the distribution of the number of ticks per host was fitted by three theoretical distributions: Negative Binomial (NB), Poisson-LogNormal (PoiLN), and Power-Law (PL). The fit with theoretical distributions indicated that the tail of the tick infestation pattern on mice is better described by the PL distribution. Moreover, we found that the tail of the distribution significantly changes with seasonal variations in host abundance. In order to investigate the effect of different tails of tick distribution on the invasion of a non-systemically transmitted pathogen, we simulated the transmission of a TBE-like virus between susceptible and infective ticks using a stochastic model. Model simulations indicated different outcomes of disease spreading when considering different distribution laws of ticks among hosts. Specifically, we found that the epidemic threshold and the prevalence equilibria obtained in epidemiological simulations with PL distribution are a good approximation of those observed in simulations feed by the empirical distribution. Moreover, we also found that the epidemic threshold for disease invasion was lower when considering the seasonal variation of tick aggregation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Learning has been studied extensively in the context of isolated individuals. However, many organisms are social and consequently make decisions both individually and as part of a collective. Reaching consensus necessarily means that a single option is chosen by the group, even when there are dissenting opinions. This decision-making process decouples the otherwise direct relationship between animals' preferences and their experiences (the outcomes of decisions). Instead, because an individual's learned preferences influence what others experience, and therefore learn about, collective decisions couple the learning processes between social organisms. This introduces a new, and previously unexplored, dynamical relationship between preference, action, experience and learning. Here we model collective learning within animal groups that make consensus decisions. We reveal how learning as part of a collective results in behavior that is fundamentally different from that learned in isolation, allowing grouping organisms to spontaneously (and indirectly) detect correlations between group members' observations of environmental cues, adjust strategy as a function of changing group size (even if that group size is not known to the individual), and achieve a decision accuracy that is very close to that which is provably optimal, regardless of environmental contingencies. Because these properties make minimal cognitive demands on individuals, collective learning, and the capabilities it affords, may be widespread among group-living organisms. Our work emphasizes the importance and need for theoretical and experimental work that considers the mechanism and consequences of learning in a social context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]