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Polygenic scores (PGS) are measures of genetic risk, derived from the results of genome wide association studies (GWAS). Previous work has proposed the coefficient of determination (R2) as an appropriate measure by which to compare PGS performance in a validation dataset. Here we propose correlation-based methods for evaluating PGS performance by adapting previous work which produced a statistical framework and robust test statistics for the comparison of multiple correlation measures in multiple populations. This flexible framework can be extended to a wider variety of hypothesis tests than currently available methods. We assess our proposed method in simulation and demonstrate its utility with two examples, assessing previously developed PGS for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and height in multiple populations in the All of Us cohort. Finally, we provide an R package 'coranova' with both parametric and nonparametric implementations of the described methods., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Gunn, Lunetta. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Findings from genome-wide association studies have facilitated the generation of genetic predictors for many common human phenotypes. Stratifying individuals misaligned to a genetic predictor based on common variants may be important for follow-up studies that aim to identify alternative causal factors. Using genome-wide imputed genetic data, we aimed to classify 158,951 unrelated individuals from the UK Biobank as either concordant or deviating from two well-measured phenotypes. We first applied our methods to standing height: our primary analysis classified 244 individuals (0.15%) as misaligned to their genetically predicted height. We show that these individuals are enriched for self-reporting being shorter or taller than average at age 10, diagnosed congenital malformations, and rare loss-of-function variants in genes previously catalogued as causal for growth disorders. Secondly, we apply our methods to LDL cholesterol (LDL-C). We classified 156 (0.12%) individuals as misaligned to their genetically predicted LDL-C and show that these individuals were enriched for both clinically actionable cardiovascular risk factors and rare genetic variants in genes previously shown to be involved in metabolic processes. Individuals whose LDL-C was higher than expected based on the genetic predictor were also at higher risk of developing coronary artery disease and type-two diabetes, even after adjustment for measured LDL-C, BMI and age, suggesting upward deviation from genetically predicted LDL-C is indicative of generally poor health. Our results remained broadly consistent when performing sensitivity analysis based on a variety of parametric and non-parametric methods to define individuals deviating from polygenic expectation. Our analyses demonstrate the potential importance of quantitatively identifying individuals for further follow-up based on deviation from genetic predictions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Hawkes et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), which includes cancers of the oral cavity and oropharynx, is a cause of substantial global morbidity and mortality. Strategies to reduce disease burden include discovery of novel therapies and repurposing of existing drugs. Statins are commonly prescribed for lowering circulating cholesterol by inhibiting HMG-CoA reductase (HMGCR). Results from some observational studies suggest that statin use may reduce HNSCC risk. We appraised the relationship of genetically-proxied cholesterol-lowering drug targets and other circulating lipid traits with oral (OC) and oropharyngeal (OPC) cancer risk using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR). For the primary analysis, germline genetic variants in HMGCR, NPC1L1, CETP, PCSK9 and LDLR were used to proxy the effect of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering therapies. In secondary analyses, variants were used to proxy circulating levels of other lipid traits in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of 188,578 individuals. Both primary and secondary analyses aimed to estimate the downstream causal effect of cholesterol lowering therapies on OC and OPC risk. The second sample for MR was taken from a GWAS of 6,034 OC and OPC cases and 6,585 controls (GAME-ON). Analyses were replicated in UK Biobank, using 839 OC and OPC cases and 372,016 controls and the results of the GAME-ON and UK Biobank analyses combined in a fixed-effects meta-analysis. We found limited evidence of a causal effect of genetically-proxied LDL-C lowering using HMGCR, NPC1L1, CETP or other circulating lipid traits on either OC or OPC risk. Genetically-proxied PCSK9 inhibition equivalent to a 1 mmol/L (38.7 mg/dL) reduction in LDL-C was associated with an increased risk of OC and OPC combined (OR 1.8 95%CI 1.2, 2.8, p = 9.31 x10-05), with good concordance between GAME-ON and UK Biobank (I2 = 22%). Effects for PCSK9 appeared stronger in relation to OPC (OR 2.6 95%CI 1.4, 4.9) than OC (OR 1.4 95%CI 0.8, 2.4). LDLR variants, resulting in genetically-proxied reduction in LDL-C equivalent to a 1 mmol/L (38.7 mg/dL), reduced the risk of OC and OPC combined (OR 0.7, 95%CI 0.5, 1.0, p = 0.006). A series of pleiotropy-robust and outlier detection methods showed that pleiotropy did not bias our findings. We found limited evidence for a role of cholesterol-lowering in OC and OPC risk, suggesting previous observational results may have been confounded. There was some evidence that genetically-proxied inhibition of PCSK9 increased risk, while lipid-lowering variants in LDLR, reduced risk of combined OC and OPC. This result suggests that the mechanisms of action of PCSK9 on OC and OPC risk may be independent of its cholesterol lowering effects; however, this was not supported uniformly across all sensitivity analyses and further replication of this finding is required., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Phenotypic variance heterogeneity across genotypes at a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) may reflect underlying gene-environment (G×E) or gene-gene interactions. We modeled variance heterogeneity for blood lipids and BMI in up to 44,211 participants and investigated relationships between variance effects (Pv), G×E interaction effects (with smoking and physical activity), and marginal genetic effects (Pm). Correlations between Pv and Pm were stronger for SNPs with established marginal effects (Spearman's ρ = 0.401 for triglycerides, and ρ = 0.236 for BMI) compared to all SNPs. When Pv and Pm were compared for all pruned SNPs, only BMI was statistically significant (Spearman's ρ = 0.010). Overall, SNPs with established marginal effects were overrepresented in the nominally significant part of the Pv distribution (Pbinomial <0.05). SNPs from the top 1% of the Pm distribution for BMI had more significant Pv values (PMann-Whitney = 1.46×10-5), and the odds ratio of SNPs with nominally significant (<0.05) Pm and Pv was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.57) for BMI. Moreover, BMI SNPs with nominally significant G×E interaction P-values (Pint<0.05) were enriched with nominally significant Pv values (Pbinomial = 8.63×10-9 and 8.52×10-7 for SNP × smoking and SNP × physical activity, respectively). We conclude that some loci with strong marginal effects may be good candidates for G×E, and variance-based prioritization can be used to identify them.

A polygenic model of inheritance, whereby hundreds or thousands of weakly associated variants contribute to a trait's heritability, has been proposed to underlie the genetic architecture of complex traits. However, relatively few genetic variants have been positively identified so far and they collectively explain only a small fraction of the predicted heritability. We hypothesized that joint association of multiple weakly associated variants over large chromosomal regions contributes to complex traits variance. Confirmation of such regional associations can help identify new loci and lead to a better understanding of known ones. To test this hypothesis, we first characterized the ability of commonly used genetic association models to identify large region joint associations. Through theoretical derivation and simulation, we showed that multivariate linear models where multiple SNPs are included as independent predictors have the most favorable association profile. Based on these results, we tested for large region association with height in 3,740 European participants from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) study. Adjusting for SNPs with known association with height, we demonstrated clustering of weak associations (p = 2x10-4) in regions extending up to 433.0 Kb from known height loci. The contribution of regional associations to phenotypic variance was estimated at 0.172 (95% CI 0.063-0.279; p < 0.001), which compared favorably to 0.129 explained by known height variants. Conversely, we showed that suggestively associated regions are enriched for known height loci. To extend our findings to other traits, we also tested BMI, HDLc and CRP for large region associations, with consistent results for CRP. Our results demonstrate the presence of large region joint associations and suggest these can be used to pinpoint weakly associated SNPs.

A fundamental challenge to contemporary genetics is to distinguish rare missense alleles that disrupt protein functions from the majority of alleles neutral on protein activities. High-throughput experimental tools to securely discriminate between disruptive and non-disruptive missense alleles are currently missing. Here we establish a scalable cell-based strategy to profile the biological effects and likely disease relevance of rare missense variants in vitro. We apply this strategy to systematically characterize missense alleles in the low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) gene identified through exome sequencing of 3,235 individuals and exome-chip profiling of 39,186 individuals. Our strategy reliably identifies disruptive missense alleles, and disruptive-allele carriers have higher plasma LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C). Importantly, considering experimental data refined the risk of rare LDLR allele carriers from 4.5- to 25.3-fold for high LDL-C, and from 2.1- to 20-fold for early-onset myocardial infarction. Our study generates proof-of-concept that systematic functional variant profiling may empower rare variant-association studies by orders of magnitude.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified ~100 loci associated with blood lipid levels, but much of the trait heritability remains unexplained, and at most loci the identities of the trait-influencing variants remain unknown. We conducted a trans-ethnic fine-mapping study at 18, 22, and 18 GWAS loci on the Metabochip for their association with triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), respectively, in individuals of African American (n = 6,832), East Asian (n = 9,449), and European (n = 10,829) ancestry. We aimed to identify the variants with strongest association at each locus, identify additional and population-specific signals, refine association signals, and assess the relative significance of previously described functional variants. Among the 58 loci, 33 exhibited evidence of association at P<1 × 10(-4) in at least one ancestry group. Sequential conditional analyses revealed that ten, nine, and four loci in African Americans, Europeans, and East Asians, respectively, exhibited two or more signals. At these loci, accounting for all signals led to a 1.3- to 1.8-fold increase in the explained phenotypic variance compared to the strongest signals. Distinct signals across ancestry groups were identified at PCSK9 and APOA5. Trans-ethnic analyses narrowed the signals to smaller sets of variants at GCKR, PPP1R3B, ABO, LCAT, and ABCA1. Of 27 variants reported previously to have functional effects, 74% exhibited the strongest association at the respective signal. In conclusion, trans-ethnic high-density genotyping and analysis confirm the presence of allelic heterogeneity, allow the identification of population-specific variants, and limit the number of candidate SNPs for functional studies., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are powerful tools to unravel genomic loci associated with common traits and complex human disease. However, GWAS only rarely reveal information on the exact genetic elements and pathogenic events underlying an association. In order to extract functional information from genomic data, strategies for systematic follow-up studies on a phenotypic level are required. Here we address these limitations by applying RNA interference (RNAi) to analyze 133 candidate genes within 56 loci identified by GWAS as associated with blood lipid levels, coronary artery disease, and/or myocardial infarction for a function in regulating cholesterol levels in cells. Knockdown of a surprisingly high number (41%) of trait-associated genes affected low-density lipoprotein (LDL) internalization and/or cellular levels of free cholesterol. Our data further show that individual GWAS loci may contain more than one gene with cholesterol-regulatory functions. Using a set of secondary assays we demonstrate for a number of genes without previously known lipid-regulatory roles (e.g. CXCL12, FAM174A, PAFAH1B1, SEZ6L, TBL2, WDR12) that knockdown correlates with altered LDL-receptor levels and/or that overexpression as GFP-tagged fusion proteins inversely modifies cellular cholesterol levels. By providing strong evidence for disease-relevant functions of lipid trait-associated genes, our study demonstrates that quantitative, cell-based RNAi is a scalable strategy for a systematic, unbiased detection of functional effectors within GWAS loci., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels are among the most important risk factors for coronary artery disease. We tested for gene-gene interactions affecting the level of these four lipids based on prior knowledge of established genome-wide association study (GWAS) hits, protein-protein interactions, and pathway information. Using genotype data from 9,713 European Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, we identified an interaction between HMGCR and a locus near LIPC in their effect on HDL-C levels (Bonferroni corrected P(c) = 0.002). Using an adaptive locus-based validation procedure, we successfully validated this gene-gene interaction in the European American cohorts from the Framingham Heart Study (P(c) = 0.002) and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA; P(c) = 0.006). The interaction between these two loci is also significant in the African American sample from ARIC (P(c) = 0.004) and in the Hispanic American sample from MESA (P(c) = 0.04). Both HMGCR and LIPC are involved in the metabolism of lipids, and genome-wide association studies have previously identified LIPC as associated with levels of HDL-C. However, the effect on HDL-C of the novel gene-gene interaction reported here is twice as pronounced as that predicted by the sum of the marginal effects of the two loci. In conclusion, based on a knowledge-driven analysis of epistasis, together with a new locus-based validation method, we successfully identified and validated an interaction affecting a complex trait in multi-ethnic populations., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Weight-loss interventions generally improve lipid profiles and reduce cardiovascular disease risk, but effects are variable and may depend on genetic factors. We performed a genetic association analysis of data from 2,993 participants in the Diabetes Prevention Program to test the hypotheses that a genetic risk score (GRS) based on deleterious alleles at 32 lipid-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms modifies the effects of lifestyle and/or metformin interventions on lipid levels and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) lipoprotein subfraction size and number. Twenty-three loci previously associated with fasting LDL-C, HDL-C, or triglycerides replicated (P = 0.04-1 × 10(-17)). Except for total HDL particles (r = -0.03, P = 0.26), all components of the lipid profile correlated with the GRS (partial |r| = 0.07-0.17, P = 5 × 10(-5)-1 10(-19)). The GRS was associated with higher baseline-adjusted 1-year LDL cholesterol levels (β = +0.87, SEE ± 0.22 mg/dl/allele, P = 8 × 10(-5), P(interaction) = 0.02) in the lifestyle intervention group, but not in the placebo (β = +0.20, SEE ± 0.22 mg/dl/allele, P = 0.35) or metformin (β = -0.03, SEE ± 0.22 mg/dl/allele, P = 0.90; P(interaction) = 0.64) groups. Similarly, a higher GRS predicted a greater number of baseline-adjusted small LDL particles at 1 year in the lifestyle intervention arm (β = +0.30, SEE ± 0.012 ln nmol/L/allele, P = 0.01, P(interaction) = 0.01) but not in the placebo (β = -0.002, SEE ± 0.008 ln nmol/L/allele, P = 0.74) or metformin (β = +0.013, SEE ± 0.008 nmol/L/allele, P = 0.12; P(interaction) = 0.24) groups. Our findings suggest that a high genetic burden confers an adverse lipid profile and predicts attenuated response in LDL-C levels and small LDL particle number to dietary and physical activity interventions aimed at weight loss., Competing Interests: TIP has been a consultant for Isis Pharmaceuticals. TI has received a research grant from NIDDK and honoraria from Shire and Genzyme and has been a consultant for Shire. KAJ (the DPP Genetics Program) has a research grant from NIH. DA has received a research grant from Pfizer and honoraria from academic non-profit (e.g. talks) and has been a consultant for Eisai, MPM Capital, and NanoString. ARS has a NIH research grant. RBG has a research grant from NIH for this study; speaker honoraria from Merck; other research support from Bristol Myers Squibb, GSK, and Roche; and small consultant activities. JCF has received consulting honoraria from Daiichi-Sankyo and AstraZeneca. PWF has received speaking honoraria from Novo Nordisk and other academic/non-profit organisations.

Complex trait genome-wide association studies (GWAS) provide an efficient strategy for evaluating large numbers of common variants in large numbers of individuals and for identifying trait-associated variants. Nevertheless, GWAS often leave much of the trait heritability unexplained. We hypothesized that some of this unexplained heritability might be due to common and rare variants that reside in GWAS identified loci but lack appropriate proxies in modern genotyping arrays. To assess this hypothesis, we re-examined 7 genes (APOE, APOC1, APOC2, SORT1, LDLR, APOB, and PCSK9) in 5 loci associated with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in multiple GWAS. For each gene, we first catalogued genetic variation by re-sequencing 256 Sardinian individuals with extreme LDL-C values. Next, we genotyped variants identified by us and by the 1000 Genomes Project (totaling 3,277 SNPs) in 5,524 volunteers. We found that in one locus (PCSK9) the GWAS signal could be explained by a previously described low-frequency variant and that in three loci (PCSK9, APOE, and LDLR) there were additional variants independently associated with LDL-C, including a novel and rare LDLR variant that seems specific to Sardinians. Overall, this more detailed assessment of SNP variation in these loci increased estimates of the heritability of LDL-C accounted for by these genes from 3.1% to 6.5%. All association signals and the heritability estimates were successfully confirmed in a sample of ∼10,000 Finnish and Norwegian individuals. Our results thus suggest that focusing on variants accessible via GWAS can lead to clear underestimates of the trait heritability explained by a set of loci. Further, our results suggest that, as prelude to large-scale sequencing efforts, targeted re-sequencing efforts paired with large-scale genotyping will increase estimates of complex trait heritability explained by known loci., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of mortality in African Americans. To identify common genetic polymorphisms associated with CHD and its risk factors (LDL- and HDL-cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C), hypertension, smoking, and type-2 diabetes) in individuals of African ancestry, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 8,090 African Americans from five population-based cohorts. We replicated 17 loci previously associated with CHD or its risk factors in Caucasians. For five of these regions (CHD: CDKN2A/CDKN2B; HDL-C: FADS1-3, PLTP, LPL, and ABCA1), we could leverage the distinct linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns in African Americans to identify DNA polymorphisms more strongly associated with the phenotypes than the previously reported index SNPs found in Caucasian populations. We also developed a new approach for association testing in admixed populations that uses allelic and local ancestry variation. Using this method, we discovered several loci that would have been missed using the basic allelic and global ancestry information only. Our conclusions suggest that no major loci uniquely explain the high prevalence of CHD in African Americans. Our project has developed resources and methods that address both admixture- and SNP-association to maximize power for genetic discovery in even larger African-American consortia., Competing Interests: JBM has a research grant from GSK and a consulting agreement with Interleukin Genetics, SLH reports being listed as co-inventor on pending and issued patents held by the Cleveland Clinic relating to cardiovascular diagnostics. SLH reports having been paid as a consultant or speaker for the following companies: AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals LP, BG Medicine, Merck & Co., Pfizer Takeda, Esperion, and Cleveland Heart Lab. SLH reports receiving research funds from Abbott, Liposcience, and Cleveland Heart Lab. WHWT reports receiving research grant support from Abbott Laboratories.

Genome-wide association analysis in populations of European descent has recently found more than a hundred genetic variants affecting risk for common disease. An open question, however, is how relevant the variants discovered in Europeans are to other populations. To address this problem for cardiovascular phenotypes, we studied a cohort of 4,464 African Americans from the Jackson Heart Study (JHS), in whom we genotyped both a panel of 12 recently discovered genetic variants known to predict lipid profile levels in Europeans and a panel of up to 1,447 ancestry informative markers allowing us to determine the African ancestry proportion of each individual at each position in the genome. Focusing on lipid profiles -- HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) -- we identified the lipoprotein lipase (LPL) locus as harboring variants that account for interethnic variation in HDL-C and TG. In particular, we identified a novel common variant within LPL that is strongly associated with TG (p = 2.7 x 10(-6)) and explains nearly 1% of the variability in this phenotype, the most of any variant in African Americans to date. Strikingly, the extensively studied "gain-of-function" S447X mutation at LPL, which has been hypothesized to be the major determinant of the LPL-TG genetic association and is in trials for human gene therapy, has a significantly diminished strength of biological effect when it is found on a background of African rather than European ancestry. These results suggest that there are other, yet undiscovered variants at the locus that are truly causal (and are in linkage disequilibrium with S447X) or that work synergistically with S447X to modulate TG levels. Finally, we find systematically lower effect sizes for the 12 risk variants discovered in European populations on the African local ancestry background in JHS, highlighting the need for caution in the use of genetic variants for risk assessment across different populations., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.