Search

Targeted environmental and ecosystem management remain crucial in control of dengue. However, providing detailed environmental information on a large scale to effectively target dengue control efforts remains a challenge. An important piece of such information is the extent of the presence of potential dengue vector breeding sites, which consist primarily of open containers such as ceramic jars, buckets, old tires, and flowerpots. In this paper we present the design and implementation of a pipeline to detect outdoor open containers which constitute potential dengue vector breeding sites from geotagged images and to create highly detailed container density maps at unprecedented scale. We implement the approach using Google Street View images which have the advantage of broad coverage and of often being two to three years old which allows correlation analyses of container counts against historical data from manual surveys. Containers comprising eight of the most common breeding sites are detected in the images using convolutional neural network transfer learning. Over a test set of images the object recognition algorithm has an accuracy of 0.91 in terms of F-score. Container density counts are generated and displayed on a decision support dashboard. Analyses of the approach are carried out over three provinces in Thailand. The container counts obtained agree well with container counts from available manual surveys. Multi-variate linear regression relating densities of the eight container types to larval survey data shows good prediction of larval index values with an R-squared of 0.674. To delineate conditions under which the container density counts are indicative of larval counts, a number of factors affecting correlation with larval survey data are analyzed. We conclude that creation of container density maps from geotagged images is a promising approach to providing detailed risk maps at large scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infections outnumber clinical presentations, however the predictors for development of active disease are not well known. We aimed to identify serological, immunological and genetic markers for progression from L. donovani infection to clinical Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). Methods: We enrolled all residents >2 years of age in 27 VL endemic villages in Bihar (India). Blood samples collected on filter paper on two occasions 6–12 months apart, were tested for antibodies against L. donovani with rK39-ELISA and DAT. Sero converters, (negative for both tests in the first round but positive on either of the two during the second round) and controls (negative on both tests on both occasions) were followed for three years. At the start of follow-up venous blood was collected for the following tests: DAT, rK39- ELISA, Quantiferon assay, SNP/HLA genotyping and L.donovani specific quantitative PCR. Results: Among 1,606 subjects enrolled,17 (8/476 seroconverters and 9/1,130 controls) developed VL (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1–8.3). High DAT and rK39 ELISA antibody titers as well as positive qPCR were strongly and significantly associated with progression from seroconversion to VL with odds ratios of 19.1, 30.3 and 20.9 respectively. Most VL cases arose early (median 5 months) during follow-up. Conclusion: We confirmed the strong association between high DAT and/or rK39 titers and progression to disease among asymptomatic subjects and identified qPCR as an additional predictor. Low predictive values do not warrant prophylactic treatment but as most progressed to VL early during follow-up, careful oberservation of these subjects for at least 6 months is indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rabies remains a disease of significant zoonotic and economic concern in rabies endemic areas of Bhutan. Rabies outbreaks in livestock threaten the livelihoods of subsistent farming communities and pose a potential public health threat. As a part of identifying approaches to prevent rabies in cattle, a Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice (KAP) survey was conducted among cattle owners in selected rural areas of the southern rabies high-risk zone and low-risk zone in eastern Bhutan. Between March and April 2017, 562 cattle owners (281 in the east and 281 in the south) were interviewed using a questionnaire. Eighty-eight percent of the participants had heard of rabies but only 39% of the participants who had heard of rabies had adequate knowledge about rabies. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that residing in the south [OR = 9.25 (95% CI: 6.01–14.53)] and having seen a rabies case [OR = 2.46 (95% CI: 1.6–3.82)] were significantly associated with having adequate knowledge about rabies. Based on our scoring criteria, 65% of the total participants who had heard of rabies had a favorable attitude towards rabies control and prevention programs. The participants residing in the east were two times more likely to have a favourable attitude than their counterparts in the south [OR = 2.08 (95% CI: 1.43–3.05)]. More than 70% of the participants reported engaging in farm activities such as examining the oral cavity of sick cattle and assisting cattle during parturition. Only 25% of the participants reported using personal protective equipment while undertaking these activities. Despite a high level of rabies awareness, we observed that there is a lack of comprehensive knowledge about rabies regarding susceptible hosts, transmission routes, the health outcome of rabies infection in humans, and appropriate health-seeking behaviours. This study highlights the need to strengthen rabies education programs in rural communities to address the knowledge gaps that have been identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9–29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of stool from patients with acute watery diarrhea (AWD) using sensitive molecular diagnostics have challenged whether fecal microbiological cultures have acceptably high sensitivity for cholera diagnosis. If true, these findings imply that current estimates of the global burden of cholera, which rely largely on culture-confirmation, may be underestimates. We conducted a vaccine probe study to evaluate this possibility, assessing whether an effective killed oral cholera vaccine (OCV) tested in a field trial in a cholera-endemic population conferred protection against cholera culture-negative AWD, with the assumption that if cultures are indeed insensitive, OCV protection in such cases should be detectable. We re-analysed the data of a Phase III individually-randomized placebo-controlled efficacy trial of killed OCVs conducted in Matlab, Bangladesh in 1985. We calculated the protective efficacy (PE) of a killed whole cell-only (WC-only) OCV against first-episodes of cholera culture-negative AWD during two years of post-dosing follow-up. In secondary analyses, we evaluated PE against cholera culture-negative AWD by age at vaccination, season of onset, and disease severity. In this trial 50,770 people received at least 2 complete doses of either WC-only OCV or placebo, and 791 first episodes of AWD were reported during the follow-up period, of which 365 were culture-positive for Vibrio cholerae O1. Of the 426 culture-negative AWD episodes, 215 occurred in the WC group and 211 occurred in the placebo group (adjusted PE = -1.7%; 95%CI -23.0 to 13.9%, p = 0.859). No measurable PE of OCV was observed against all or severe cholera culture-negative AWD when measured overall or by age and season subgroups. In this OCV probe study we detected no vaccine protection against AWD episodes for which fecal cultures were negative for Vibrio cholera O1. Results from this setting suggest that fecal cultures from patients with AWD were highly sensitive for cholera episodes that were etiologically attributable to this pathogen. Similar analyses of other OCV randomized controlled trials are recommended to corroborate these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Effective response to emerging infectious disease (EID) threats relies on health care systems that can detect and contain localised outbreaks before they reach a national or international scale. The Asia-Pacific region contains low and middle income countries in which the risk of EID outbreaks is elevated and whose health care systems may require international support to effectively detect and respond to such events. The absence of comprehensive data on populations, health care systems and disease characteristics in this region makes risk assessment and decisions about the provision of such support challenging. Methodology/principal findings: We describe a mathematical modelling framework that can inform this process by integrating available data sources, systematically explore the effects of uncertainty, and provide estimates of outbreak risk under a range of intervention scenarios. We illustrate the use of this framework in the context of a potential importation of Ebola Virus Disease into the Asia-Pacific region. Results suggest that, across a wide range of plausible scenarios, preemptive interventions supporting the timely detection of early cases provide substantially greater reductions in the probability of large outbreaks than interventions that support health care system capacity after an outbreak has commenced. Conclusions/significance: Our study demonstrates how, in the presence of substantial uncertainty about health care system infrastructure and other relevant aspects of disease control, mathematical models can be used to assess the constraints that limited resources place upon the ability of local health care systems to detect and respond to EID outbreaks in a timely and effective fashion. Our framework can help evaluate the relative impact of these constraints to identify resourcing priorities for health care system support, in order to inform principled and quantifiable decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies of the immunogenicity of the killed bivalent whole cell oral cholera vaccine, Shanchol, have been performed in historically cholera-endemic areas of Asia. There is a need to assess the immunogenicity of the vaccine in Haiti and other populations without historical exposure to Vibrio cholerae. Methodology/Principal Findings: We measured immune responses after administration of Shanchol, in 25 adults, 51 older children (6–17 years), and 47 younger children (1–5 years) in Haiti, where cholera was introduced in 2010. A≥4-fold increase in vibriocidal antibody titer against V. cholerae O1 Ogawa was observed in 91% of adults, 74% of older children, and 73% of younger children after two doses of Shanchol; similar responses were observed against the Inaba serotype. A≥2-fold increase in serum O-antigen specific polysaccharide IgA antibody levels against V. cholerae O1 Ogawa was observed in 59% of adults, 45% of older children, and 61% of younger children; similar responses were observed against the Inaba serotype. We compared immune responses in Haitian individuals with age- and blood group-matched individuals from Bangladesh, a historically cholera-endemic area. The geometric mean vibriocidal titers after the first dose of vaccine were lower in Haitian than in Bangladeshi vaccinees. However, the mean vibriocidal titers did not differ between the two groups after the second dose of the vaccine. Conclusions/Significance: A killed bivalent whole cell oral cholera vaccine, Shanchol, is highly immunogenic in Haitian adults and children. A two-dose regimen may be important in Haiti, and other populations lacking previous repeated exposures to V. cholerae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Common causes of acute febrile illness in tropical countries have similar symptoms, which often mimic those of dengue. Accurate clinical diagnosis can be difficult without laboratory confirmation and disease burden is generally under-reported. Accurate, population-based, laboratory-confirmed incidence data on dengue and other causes of acute fever in dengue-endemic Asian countries are needed. Methods and principal findings: This prospective, multicenter, active fever surveillance, cohort study was conducted in selected centers in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam to determine the incidence density of acute febrile episodes (≥38°C for ≥2 days) in 1,500 healthy children aged 2–14 years, followed for a mean 237 days. Causes of fever were assessed by testing acute and convalescent sera from febrile participants for dengue, chikungunya, hepatitis A, influenza A, leptospirosis, rickettsia, and Salmonella Typhi. Overall, 289 participants had acute fever, an incidence density of 33.6 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 30.0; 37.8); 57% were IgM-positive for at least one of these diseases. The most common causes of fever by IgM ELISA were chikungunya (in 35.0% of in febrile participants) and S. Typhi (in 29.4%). The overall incidence density of dengue per 100 person-years was 3.4 by nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) antigen positivity (95% CI: 2.4; 4.8) and 7.3 (95% CI: 5.7; 9.2) by serology. Dengue was diagnosed in 11.4% (95% CI: 8.0; 15.7) and 23.9% (95% CI: 19.1; 29.2) of febrile participants by NS1 positivity and serology, respectively. Of the febrile episodes not clinically diagnosed as dengue, 5.3% were dengue-positive by NS1 antigen testing and 16.0% were dengue-positive by serology. Conclusions: During the study period, the most common identified causes of pediatric acute febrile illness among the seven tested for were chikungunya, S. Typhi and dengue. Not all dengue cases were clinically diagnosed; laboratory confirmation is essential to refine disease burden estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Burkholderia pseudomallei is a Gram-negative, facultative intracellular bacillus and the etiologic agent of melioidosis, a severe disease in Southeast Asia and Northern Australia. Like other multidrug-resistant pathogens, the inherent antibiotic resistance of B. pseudomallei impedes treatment and highlights the need for alternative therapeutic strategies that can circumvent antimicrobial resistance mechanisms. In this work, we demonstrate that host prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) production plays a regulatory role in the pathogenesis of B. pseudomallei. PGE2 promotes B. pseudomallei intracellular survival within macrophages and bacterial virulence in a mouse model of pneumonic melioidosis. PGE2-mediated immunosuppression of macrophage bactericidal effector functions is associated with increased arginase 2 (Arg2) expression and decreased nitric oxide (NO) production. Treatment with a commercially-available COX-2 inhibitor suppresses the growth of B. pseudomallei in macrophages and affords significant protection against rapidly lethal pneumonic melioidosis when administered post-exposure to B. pseudomallei-infected mice. COX-2 inhibition may represent a novel immunotherapeutic strategy to control infection with B. pseudomallei and other intracellular pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]