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Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM) and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE). In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae); TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter). Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior), reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias, healthcare access) between environmental drivers/exposures and disease detection. Key areas of future research include: disentangling the complex effects of weather/climate on each exposure-health outcome pathway (e.g. person-to-person vs environment-to-person), and linking weather data to individual cases longitudinally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vector-borne infectious disease such as dengue fever (DF) has spread rapidly due to more suitable living environments. Considering the limited studies investigating the disease spread under climate change in South and Southeast Asia, this study aimed to project the DF transmission potential in 30 locations across four South and Southeast Asian countries. In this study, weekly DF incidence data, daily mean temperature, and rainfall data in 30 locations in Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand from 2012 to 2020 were collected. The effects of temperature and rainfall on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of DF transmission were examined using generalized additive models. Projections of location-specific Rt from 2030s to 2090s were determined using projected temperature and rainfall under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and the peak DF transmissibility and epidemic duration in the future were estimated. According to the results, the projected changes in the peak Rt and epidemic duration varied across locations, and the most significant change was observed under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Under SSP585, the country-specific peak Rt was projected to decrease from 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.39–1.91), 2.60 (1.89–3.57), and 1.41 (1.22–1.64) in 2030s to 1.22 (0.98–1.51), 2.09 (1.26–3.47), and 1.37 (0.83–2.27) in 2090s in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, respectively. Yet, the peak Rt in Sri Lanka changed slightly from 2030s to 2090s under SSP585. The epidemic duration in Singapore and Malaysia was projected to decline under SSP585. In conclusion, the change of peak DF transmission potential and disease outbreak duration would vary across locations, particularly under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Interventions should be considered to slow down global warming as well as the potential increase in DF transmissibility in some locations of South and Southeast Asia. Author summary: Climate change has a significant impact worldwide, including the proliferation of infectious diseases in tropical areas. While the warmer and more humid living conditions in these regions are generally considered favorable for the transmission of vector-borne diseases, we argue that the effects of climate change on DF infection may vary across different locations. Unlike previous studies focusing primarily on the disease incidence, this study aims to estimate changes in peak DF transmissibility and the duration of disease epidemics in the future. By analyzing data from 30 locations in four tropical countries, we have found that changes in DF transmissibility and epidemic duration exhibit variations both within and between countries, particularly under the scenarios of moderate to high greenhouse gas emissions. In light of these findings, we recommend conducting location-specific evaluations of DF transmissibility under the influence of climate change, as well as implementing targeted interventions to mitigate the potential increase in DF transmission rates in specific tropical locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ticks are a hematophagous parasite and a vector of pathogens for numerous human and animal diseases of significant importance. The expansion of tick distribution and the increased risk of tick-borne diseases due to global climate change necessitates further study of the spatial distribution trend of ticks and their potential influencing factors. This study constructed a dataset of tick species distribution in Xinjiang for 60 years based on literature database retrieval and historical data collection (January 1963-January 2023). The distribution data were extracted, corrected, and deduplicated. The dominant tick species were selected for analysis using the MaxEnt model to assess their potential distribution in different periods under the current and BCC-CSM2.MR mode scenarios. The results indicated that there are eight genera and 48 species of ticks in 108 cities and counties of Xinjiang, with Hyalomma asiaticum, Rhipicephalus turanicus, Dermacentor marginatus, and Haemaphysalis punctatus being the top four dominant species. The MaxEnt model analysis revealed that the suitability areas of the four dominant ticks were mainly distributed in the north of Xinjiang, in areas such as Altay and Tacheng Prefecture. Over the next four periods, the medium and high suitable areas within the potential distribution range of the four tick species will expand towards the northwest. Additionally, new suitability areas will emerge in Altay, Changji Hui Autonomous Region, and other local areas. The 60-year tick dataset in this study provides a map of preliminary tick distribution in Xinjiang, with a diverse array of tick species and distribution patterns throughout the area. In addition, the MaxEnt model revealed the spatial change characteristics and future distribution trend of ticks in Xinjiang, which can provide an instrumental data reference for tick monitoring and tick-borne disease risk prediction not only in the region but also in other countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. Author summary: Tick-borne diseases pose a significant threat to public health worldwide, and their spread is being intensified by global climate change. The need for further research into the spatial distribution and influencing factors of ticks is becoming increasingly urgent. Our study compiled a comprehensive 60-year dataset on tick species distribution in Xinjiang to analyze trends and predict future distributions. The study identified eight genera and 48 tick species across 108 cities and counties in Xinjiang, with Hyalomma asiaticum, Rhipicephalus turanicus, Dermacentor marginatus, and Haemaphysalis punctatus being the four dominant species. In addition, our study forecasts a northward expansion of suitable habitats for these species towards Altay and Tacheng Prefecture, with new suitability areas expected in Altay and the Changji Hui Autonomous Region. The findings of this study provide a crucial map of tick distribution and offer valuable insights into future trends, serving as a valuable resource for tick monitoring and disease risk prediction in Xinjiang, particularly in light of the devastating effects of tick-borne diseases on human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios. Methods: Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue. Results: Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961–1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. Conclusions: Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue. Author summary: Dengue is the most important arboviral disease globally, and the transmission of dengue is closely linked to climate. This review assembled all existing studies which have quantified the impact of climate change on dengue under climate change scenarios. We observed that most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961–1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2014, Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV), with several waves of East-Central-South-African (ECSA) lineage transmission reported across the country. In 2018, Rio de Janeiro state, the third most populous state in Brazil, reported 41% of all chikungunya cases in the country. Here we use evolutionary and epidemiological analysis to estimate the timescale of CHIKV-ECSA-American lineage and its epidemiological patterns in Rio de Janeiro. We show that the CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Rio de Janeiro derived from two distinct clades introduced from the Northeast region in mid-2015 (clade RJ1, n = 63/67 genomes from Rio de Janeiro) and mid-2017 (clade RJ2, n = 4/67). We detected evidence for positive selection in non-structural proteins linked with viral replication in the RJ1 clade (clade-defining: nsP4-A481D) and the RJ2 clade (nsP1-D531G). Finally, we estimate the CHIKV-ECSA's basic reproduction number (R0) to be between 1.2 to 1.6 and show that its instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) displays a strong seasonal pattern with peaks in transmission coinciding with periods of high Aedes aegypti transmission potential. Our results highlight the need for continued genomic and epidemiological surveillance of CHIKV in Brazil, particularly during periods of high ecological suitability, and show that selective pressures underline the emergence and evolution of the large urban CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Rio de Janeiro. Author summary: Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral disease that has emerged as a significant public health concern in many regions worldwide. The state of Rio de Janeiro, a key economic and tourism hub in Brazil, has experienced multiple outbreaks of chikungunya in recent years, resulting in significant morbidity and economic burden. However, our understanding of the establishment and epidemiology of chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro remains limited. We conducted an analysis of chikungunya epidemiology in Rio de Janeiro, focusing on the first four years of virus circulation in the state. We estimated the magnitude of chikungunya transmission during this period, providing evidence that the trends of incidence and transmissibility can be influenced by climatic fluctuations, which impact vector abundance. Through analysis of novel genetic data, we inferred the evolutionary history of the virus, providing evidence of molecular adaptation in the lineage circulating in Rio de Janeiro. These findings highlight the need for designing effective vector control strategies to prevent and mitigate chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro and similar settings. Further research is needed to continue monitoring viral epidemiological trends and to better understand the complex interactions between climatic factors, vector dynamics, and viral evolution in shaping the transmission of this emerging disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Snakebite envenoming is a serious and life-threatening medical condition that predominantly affects people living in rural communities across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. As our climate changes, there is a growing concern that negative human–snake interactions will increase. Our ability to prevent and manage snakebite requires effective antivenoms as well as knowledge regarding the prevention and management of snakebite among healthcare workers and affected communities across the globe. This systematic review aims to assess existing levels of knowledge regarding snakebite prevention and management in both healthcare workers and affected communities. Methods: This review was conducted on studies reporting quantitative measurements to evaluate knowledge and practice regarding snakebite prevention and management published in major databases between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2021. Random effects modelling was used to obtain the pooled proportion. Heterogeneity (I2) was tested, and sensitivity analyses performed. Results: Out of 3,697 records, 16 studies from 12 countries assessing 7,640 participants were included. Four of the studies were ranked as good quality studies, 9 as fair, and 3 as poor. This study results demonstrated that 56% of the study population answered the knowledge question correctly (95% CI 48% to 63%, p < 0.001). High heterogeneity was observed (I2 = 97.29%), with marginal publication bias (Egger's regression test, p = 0.0814). Participants had relatively higher knowledge concerning use of antivenom as preferred treatment, followed by snakebite prevention, knowledge of signs and symptoms of snakebite, knowledge of first-aid, and knowledge of treatment. Participants had lower knowledge relating to types of snakes and the identification of snakes. Conclusion: Adequate knowledge about snakebites and its management among the general population and healthcare workers was 56%. Healthcare workers and communities across Asia showed higher relative knowledge compared to those in Africa and the Middle East. These data suggest that further education is needed in both the general population and among healthcare workers to ensure that appropriate preventative and patient management techniques are being utilised in snakebite endemic regions. Greater local awareness of the risks and appropriate management of snakebite is required to reduce the burden of snakebite mortality and morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Leptospirosis is an important public health problem affecting vulnerable urban slum populations in developing country settings. However, the complex interaction of meteorological factors driving the temporal trends of leptospirosis remain incompletely understood. Methods and findings: From March 1996—March 2010, we investigated the association between the weekly incidence of leptospirosis and meteorological anomalies in the city of Salvador, Brazil by using a dynamic generalized linear model that accounted for time lags, overall trend, and seasonal variation. Our model showed an increase of leptospirosis cases associated with higher than expected rainfall, lower than expected temperature and higher than expected humidity. There was a lag of one-to-two weeks between weekly values for significant meteorological variables and leptospirosis incidence. Independent of the season, a weekly cumulative rainfall anomaly of 20 mm increased the risk of leptospirosis by 12% compared to a week following the expected seasonal pattern. Finally, over the 14-year study period, the annual incidence of leptospirosis decreased significantly by a factor of 2.7 (8.3 versus 3.0 per 100,000 people), independently of variations in climate. Conclusions: Strategies to control leptospirosis should focus on avoiding contact with contaminated sources of Leptospira as well as on increasing awareness in the population and health professionals within the short time window after low-level or extreme high-level rainfall events. Increased leptospirosis incidence was restricted to one-to-two weeks after those events suggesting that infectious Leptospira survival may be limited to short time intervals. Author summary: To determine the role of meteorological variables, seasonal variation and temporal trends in the incidence of leptospirosis, we investigated the time series of leptospirosis incidence amongst residents of Salvador, Brazil, from 1996 to 2010. Exploratory and confirmatory statistical methods detected associations between meteorological anomalies and disease incidence. Results showed the importance of extreme meteorological conditions, particularly rainfall, as short-term predictors of leptospirosis incidence. In addition, we found a long-term decreasing trend in disease incidence over the observation period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite broad consensus on the importance of community and stakeholder engagement (CSE) for guiding the development, regulation, field testing, and deployment of emerging vector control technologies (such as genetically engineered insects), the types of activities pursued have varied widely, as have the outcomes. We looked to previous CSE efforts for clarity about appropriate methods and goals. Our analysis yielded a typology of CSE, and related vocabulary, that describes distinctions that funders, organizers, and scholars should make when proposing or evaluating CSE. Methods: We compiled available formal documentation of CSE projects, starting with projects mentioned in interviews with 17 key informants. Major features of these examples, including the initiators, target groups, timing, goals, and methods were identified using qualitative coding. Based on these examples, subcategories were developed for a subset of features and applied to the identified cases of CSE in the documents. Co-occurrence of subcategorized features was examined for patterns. Results: We identified 14 documented examples CSE projects, which were comprised of 28 distinct CSE activities. We found no clear patterns with respect to timing. However, we found that grouping examples according to whether initiators or targets could enact the immediate desired outcome could help to clarify relationships between goals, methods, and targets. Conclusion: Based on this analysis, we propose a typology that distinguishes three categories of CSE: engagement to inquire –where initiators are empowered to act on information collected through engagement with target groups; engagement to influence –where initiators engage to affect the actions of already-empowered target groups; and engagement to involve –where initiators engage to delegate authority to target groups. The proposed typology can serve as a guide for establishing the goals, identifying appropriate methods, and evaluating and reporting CSE projects by directing attention to important questions to be asked well before determining who to engage and how. Author summary: Mosquito borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue, are major causes of illness and death worldwide. Furthermore, it is getting harder to control mosquitoes and other disease-carrying pests because global climate change is facilitating their spread to new areas, and over time, mosquitoes develop resistance to pesticides. Scientists are therefore developing new methods for controlling mosquito vectors using new gene editing tools. However, releasing genetically engineered insects into the environment is controversial. Many experts recommend that communities and stakeholders be consulted about if or how to use these new methods, but there are few guidelines for the best way to do this. We examined published accounts of community and stakeholder engagement pertaining to novel vector control and looked for patterns across these cases. We found that many efforts were not described in published sources, but those that were fall into three categories: engagement to influence, engagement to inquire, and engagement to involve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events affect the development and survival of disease pathogens and vectors. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of heat waves on the population dynamics of Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which is a major vector of dengue and Zika viruses. We modeled the population abundance of blood-fed mosquito adults based on a mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus with the consideration of diapause. Using simulated heat wave events derived from a 35-year historical dataset, we assessed how the mosquito population responded to different heat wave characteristics, including the onset day, duration, and the average temperature. Two important observations are made: (1) a heat wave event facilitates the population growth in the early development phase but tends to have an overall inhibitive effect; and (2) two primary factors affecting the development are the unusual onset time of a heat wave and a relatively high temperature over an extended period. We also performed a sensitivity analysis using different heat wave definitions, justifying the robustness of the findings. The study suggests that particular attention should be paid to future heat wave events with an abnormal onset time or a lasting high temperature in order to develop effective strategies to prevent and control Ae. albopictus-borne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9–29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in the global land temperature, expected under predictions of climate change, can directly affect the transmission of some infectious diseases, including Chagas disease, an anthropozoonosis caused by Trypanosoma cruzi and transmitted by arthropod vectors of the subfamily Triatominae. This work seeks to study the effects of temperature on the development of the life cycle, fertility and fecundity of the insect vector Rhodnius prolixus and on the metacyclogenesis of T. cruzi. All of the variables were subjected to 3 temperatures: 26°C, 28°C and 30°C. Hatching time was evaluated, along with time to fifth instar, time to adult, fecundity studied using the e-value, and egg viability during the first 3 reproductive cycles. In addition, the amounts of metacyclic trypomastigotes of the TcI and TcII DTUs in R. prolixus were evaluated from days 2 to 20 at two-day intervals and from weeks 6 to 8 post-infection. Decreases were observed in time to hatching (15–10 days on average) and in time to fifth instar (70–60 days on average) and transition to adult (100–85 days on average). No significant differences in egg viability were observed in any of the reproductive cycles evaluated, but an increase in fecundity was observed at 30°C during the third reproductive cycle. At 30°C, there was also an increase in the number of infective forms and a decrease in the time at which metacyclic trypomastigotes were detected in the rectal ampulla of the insects for both TcI and TcII. According to these results, the expected temperature increase under climate change would cause an increase in the number of insects and a greater probability of infection of the parasite, which affects the transmission of Chagas disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Temperature is an important factor that influences the biology and ecology of intermediate host (IH) snails and the schistosome parasites they transmit. Although temperature shifts due to climate change has been predicted to affect the life history traits of IH snails and parasite production, the mechanisms of how this may affect parasite abundance and disease risks are still not clear. Materials and methods: Using data from laboratory and field experiments, we developed a deterministic compartmental simulation model based on difference equations using a weekly time step that represented the life cycle of Bulinus globosus. We simulated snail population dynamics and the associated production of cercariae assuming current environmental temperatures as well as projected temperature increases of 1 °C and 2 °C. Results: The model generated snail fecundity and survival rates similar to those observed in the laboratory and also produced reasonable snail population dynamics under seasonally varying temperatures representative of generally favorable environmental conditions. Simulated relative abundances of both snails and cercariae decreased with increasing environmental temperatures, with maximum snail abundances decreased by 14% and 27%, and maximum cercariae productions decreased by 8% and 17%, when temperatures were increased by 1 °C and 2 °C, respectively. Conclusion: The results indicate that future rise in temperature due to climate change may alter the abundance of B. globosus and impact on the prevalence of schistosomiasis. Furthermore, increased temperatures may not linearly influence the abundance of S. haematobium. These results may have important implications for schistosomiasis control programmes in view of temperature driven changes in the life history traits of B. globosus and S. haematobium. Our study recommends that the use of deterministic models incorporating the effects of temperature on the life history traits of IH snails would be vital in understanding the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis incidences and prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rodents are reservoirs and hosts for several zoonotic diseases such as plague, leptospirosis, and leishmaniasis. Rapid development of industry and agriculture, as well as climate change throughout the globe, has led to change or increase in occurrence of rodent-borne diseases. Considering the distribution of rodents throughout Iran, the aim of this review is to assess the risk of rodent-borne diseases in Iran. Methodology/Principal finding: We searched Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, Scientific Information Database (SID), and Magiran databases up to September 2016 to obtain articles reporting occurrence of rodent-borne diseases in Iran and extract information from them. Out of 70 known rodent-borne diseases, 34 were reported in Iran: 17 (50%) parasitic diseases, 13 (38%) bacterial diseases, and 4 (12%) viral diseases. Twenty-one out of 34 diseases were reported from both humans and rodents. Among the diseases reported in the rodents of Iran, plague, leishmaniasis, and hymenolepiasis were the most frequent. The most infected rodents were Rattus norvegicus (16 diseases), Mus musculus (14 diseases), Rattus rattus (13 diseases), Meriones persicus (7 diseases), Apodemus spp. (5 diseases), Tatera indica (4 diseases), Meriones libycus (3 diseases), Rhombomys opimus (3 diseases), Cricetulus migratorius (3 diseases), and Nesokia indica (2 diseases). Conclusions/Significance: The results of this review indicate the importance of rodent-borne diseases in Iran. Considering notable diversity of rodents and their extensive distribution throughout the country, it is crucial to pay more attention to their role in spreading infectious diseases for better control of the diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is a highly invasive mosquito whose global distribution has fluctuated dramatically over the last 100 years. In Australia the distribution of Ae. aegypti once spanned the eastern seaboard, for 3,000 km north to south. However, during the 1900s this distribution markedly reduced and the mosquito disappeared from its southern range. Numerous hypotheses have been proffered for this retraction, however quantitative evidence of the mechanisms driving the disappearance are lacking. We examine historical records during the period when Ae. aegypti disappeared from Brisbane, the largest population centre in Queensland, Australia. In particular, we focus on the targeted management of Ae. aegypti by government authorities, that led to local elimination, something rarely observed in large cities. Numerous factors are likely to be responsible including the removal of larval habitat, especially domestic rainwater tanks, in combination with increased mosquito surveillance and regulatory enforcement. This account of historical events as they pertain to the elimination of Ae. aegypti from Brisbane, will inform assessments of the risks posed by recent human responses to climate change and the reintroduction of 300,000 rainwater tanks into the State over the past decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Recurrent cholera outbreaks have been reported in Cameroon since 1971. However, case fatality ratios remain high, and we do not have an optimal understanding of the epidemiology of the disease, due in part to the diversity of Cameroon’s climate subzones and a lack of comprehensive data at the health district level. Methods/Findings: A unique health district level dataset of reported cholera case numbers and related deaths from 2000–2012, obtained from the Ministry of Public Health of Cameroon and World Health Organization (WHO) country office, served as the basis for the analysis. During this time period, 43,474 cholera cases were reported: 1748 were fatal (mean annual case fatality ratio of 7.9%), with an attack rate of 17.9 reported cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Outbreaks occurred in three waves during the 13-year time period, with the highest case fatality ratios at the beginning of each wave. Seasonal patterns of illness differed strikingly between climate subzones (Sudano-Sahelian, Tropical Humid, Guinea Equatorial, and Equatorial Monsoon). In the northern Sudano-Sahelian subzone, highest number of cases tended to occur during the rainy season (July-September). The southern Equatorial Monsoon subzone reported cases year-round, with the lowest numbers during peak rainfall (July-September). A spatial clustering analysis identified multiple clusters of high incidence health districts during 2010 and 2011, which were the 2 years with the highest annual attack rates. A spatiotemporal autoregressive Poisson regression model fit to the 2010–2011 data identified significant associations between the risk of transmission and several factors, including the presence of major waterbody or highway, as well as the average daily maximum temperature and the precipitation levels over the preceding two weeks. The direction and/or magnitude of these associations differed between climate subzones, which, in turn, differed from national estimates that ignored subzones differences in climate variables. Conclusions/Significance: The epidemiology of cholera in Cameroon differs substantially between climate subzones. Development of an optimal comprehensive country-wide control strategy for cholera requires an understanding of the impact of the natural and built environment on transmission patterns at the local level, particularly in the setting of ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a severe threat to human health. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain. Moreover, many studies rely on its similarity to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown ecological comparability. Here we compile a comprehensive spatially-explicit occurrence dataset from Zika viral surveillance and serological surveys based in its native range, and construct ecological niche models to test basic hypotheses about its spread and potential establishment. The hypothesis that the outbreak of cases in Mexico and North America are anomalous and outside the native ecological niche of the disease, and may be linked to either genetic shifts between strains, or El Nino or similar climatic events, remains plausible at this time. Comparison of the Zika niche against the known distribution of dengue fever suggests that Zika is more constrained by the seasonality of precipitation and diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining autochthonous non-sexual transmission to the tropics without significant evolutionary change. Projecting the range of the diseases in conjunction with three major vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, and Ae. albopictus) that transmit the pathogens, under climate change, suggests that Zika has potential for northward expansion; but, based on current knowledge, our models indicate Zika is unlikely to fill the full range its vectors occupy, and public fear of a vector-borne Zika epidemic in the mainland United States is potentially informed by biased or limited scientific knowledge. With recent sexual transmission of the virus globally, we caution that our results only apply to the vector-borne transmission route of the pathogen, and while the threat of a mosquito-carried Zika pandemic may be overstated in the media, other transmission modes of the virus may emerge and facilitate naturalization worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In dengue-endemic areas, transmission shows both a seasonal and interannual variability. To investigate how rainfall impacts dengue seasonality in Singapore, we carried out a longitudinal survey in the Geylang neighborhood from August 2014 to August 2015. The survey comprised of twice-weekly random inspections to outdoor breeding habitats and continuous monitoring for positive ones. In addition, observations of rainstorms were collected. Out of 6824 inspected habitats, 67 contained Aedes aegypti, 11 contained Aedes albopictus and 24 contained Culex spp. The main outdoors habitat of Aedes aegypti was storm drains (54/67). We found that 80% of breeding sites in drains (43/54) were lost after intense rainstorms related to the wet phase of the Northeast monsoon (NE) between November 2014 and early January 2015. Subsequently, 95% (41/43) of these flushed drains had dried out during the dry phase of the NE in late January-February 2015. A return in the outdoor breeding of Aedes aegypti was observed after the onset of Southwest monsoon (SW) between May and August 2015. There was also a reduction in productivity of breeding habitats for larvae and pupae after the onset of the NE. In wet equatorial regions like Singapore, rainfall varies with the monsoons. A monsoon-driven sequence of flushing and drying shapes the outdoor seasonal abundance of Aedes aegypti. This finding can be used to optimize vector control strategies and better understand dengue in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author discuss aspects of the efforts of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) lobby within the 2016 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Topics include the effects of climate change, access to water sanitation and hygiene (WASH), and nature of benefits of NTD programmes. Also mentioned are the benefits of NTD interventions, lobby's recognition for NTDs within the SDGs, and function of the World Health Organization (WHO).

Seasonal-long larvicide treatments and/or outdoor space-spray applications of insecticides are frequently applied to reduce Aedes albopictus nuisance in urban areas of temperate regions, where the species has become a permanent pest affecting people’s quality of life and health. However, assessments of the effectiveness of sequential interventions is a difficult task, as it requires to take into account the cumulative and combined effect of multiple treatments, as well as the mosquito seasonal dynamics (rather than mosquito abundance before and after single treatments). We here present the results of the effectiveness assessment of a seasonal-long calendar-based control intervention integrating larvicide treatments of street catch basins and night-time adulticide ground spraying in the main University hospital in Rome (Italy). Cage-experiments and an intensive monitoring of wild mosquito abundance in treated and untreated sites were carried out along an entire season. Sticky traps were used to monitor adult abundance and site-specific eco-climatic variations (by recording water left over in each trap), in order to disentangle the effect of insecticide treatments from eco-climatic drivers on mosquito seasonal dynamics. Despite the apparent limited impact of single adulticide sprayings assessed based on mortality in caged and wild mosquitoes, the results of the temporal analysis showed that mosquito seasonal patterns were initially comparable in the two sites, diverged in the absence of diverging eco-climatic conditions and remained stable afterwards. This allowed to attribute the lack of the expected Ae. albopictus population expansion in the treated site to the combined effect of multiple adulticide sprayings and larvicide treatments carried out during the whole season. The approach proposed was proved to be successful to assess effects of seasonal-long control treatments on adult mosquito population dynamics and could represent a valuable instrument to assess the effectiveness of other control interventions, to evaluate their actual cost-benefits and to possibly minimize space-spraying applications to reduce mosquito nuisance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The recent geographical expansion of phlebotomine vectors of Leishmania infantum in the Mediterranean subregion has been attributed to ongoing climate changes. At these latitudes, the activity of sand flies is typically seasonal; because seasonal phenomena are also sensitive to general variations in climate, current phenological data sets can provide a baseline for continuing investigations on sand fly population dynamics that may impact on future scenarios of leishmaniasis transmission. With this aim, in 2011–2013 a consortium of partners from eight Mediterranean countries carried out entomological investigations in sites where L. infantum transmission was recently reported. Methods/Principal Findings: A common protocol for sand fly collection included monthly captures by CDC light traps, complemented by sticky traps in most of the sites. Collections were replicated for more than one season in order to reduce the effects of local weather events. In each site, the trapping effort was left unchanged throughout the survey to legitimate inter-seasonal comparisons. Data from 99,000 collected specimens were analyzed, resulting in the description of seasonal dynamics of 56,000 sand flies belonging to L. infantum vector species throughout a wide geographical area, namely P. perniciosus (Portugal, Spain and Italy), P. ariasi (France), P. neglectus (Greece), P. tobbi (Cyprus and Turkey), P. balcanicus and P. kandelakii (Georgia). Time of sand fly appearance/disappearance in collections differed between sites, and seasonal densities showed variations in each site. Significant correlations were found between latitude/mean annual temperature of sites and i) the first month of sand fly appearance, that ranged from early April to the first half of June; ii) the type of density trend, varying from a single peak in July/August to multiple peaks increasing in magnitude from May through September. A 3-modal trend, recorded for P. tobbi in Cyprus, represents a novel finding for a L. infantum vector. Adults ended the activity starting from mid September through November, without significant correlation with latitude/mean annual temperature of sites. The period of potential exposure to L.infantum in the Mediterranean subregion, as inferred by adult densities calculated from 3 years, 37 sites and 6 competent vector species, was associated to a regular bell-shaped density curve having a wide peak center encompassing the July-September period, and falling between early May to late October for more than 99% of values. Apparently no risk for leishmaniasis transmission took place from December through March in the years considered. We found a common pattern of nocturnal females activity, whose density peaked between 11 pm and 2 am. Conclusions: Despite annual variations, multiple collections performed over consecutive years provided homogeneous patterns of the potential behavior of leishmaniasis vectors in selected sites, which we propose may represent sentinel areas for future monitoring. In the investigated years, higher potential risk for L. infantum transmission in the Mediterranean was identified in the June-October period (97% relative vector density), however such risk was not equally distributed throughout the region, since density waves of adults occurred earlier and were more frequent in southern territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ornithodoros turicata is a veterinary and medically important argasid tick that is recognized as a vector of the relapsing fever spirochete Borrelia turicatae and African swine fever virus. Historic collections of O. turicata have been recorded from Latin America to the southern United States. However, the geographic distribution of this vector is poorly understood in relation to environmental variables, their hosts, and consequently the pathogens they transmit. Methodology: Localities of O. turicata were generated by performing literature searches, evaluating records from the United States National Tick Collection and the Symbiota Collections of Arthropods Network, and by conducting field studies. Maximum entropy species distribution modeling (Maxent) was used to predict the current distribution of O. turicata. Vertebrate host diversity and GIS analyses of their distributions were used to ascertain the area of shared occupancy of both the hosts and vector. Conclusions and Significance: Our results predicted previously unrecognized regions of the United States with habitat that may maintain O. turicata and could guide future surveillance efforts for a tick capable of transmitting high–consequence pathogens to human and animal populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. Methodology/Principal Findings: We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Conclusions/Significance: Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood. Author Summary: During last years, we have seen an astonishing expansion of Chikungunya virus and an increase in dengue cases worldwide, together with the worldwide expansion of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus. In addition, extreme rainfall events are envisaged to become increasingly likely as a result of ongoing climate change, but controversy surrounds the relationship between extreme rainfall events and mosquito-borne diseases. The common view in most works on climate and mosquito-borne diseases is that heavy rainfalls produce a flushing effect of immature mosquitoes in breeding containers, diminishing the mosquito abundance and in turn diminishing disease transmission. We analysed the relationships between the autochthonous chikungunya transmission in Montpellier (Southern France) in 2014, an extreme rainfall event that flooded the city, and a close monitoring of the vector Ae. albopictus, revealing an unexpected pattern. This extreme rainfall event did not, in fact, decrease but instead had increased the global risk of chikungunya transmission by sustaining high abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence extending the transmission period. We propose that an effort on source reduction campaigns must be implemented after heavy rainfall events. These results are relevant to those involved in the surveillance and control of chikungunya and dengue transmission in temperate as well as tropical areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) causes high fever and severe joint pain in humans. It is expected to spread in the future to Europe and has recently reached the USA due to globalization, climate change and vector switch. Despite this, little is known about the virus life cycle and, so far, there is no specific treatment or vaccination against Chikungunya infections. We aimed here to identify small antigenic determinants of the CHIKV E2 protein able to induce neutralizing immune responses. Methodology/Principal Findings: E2 enables attachment of the virus to target cells and a humoral immune response against E2 should protect from CHIKV infections. Seven recombinant proteins derived from E2 and consisting of linear and/or structural antigens were created, and were expressed in and purified from E. coli. BALB/c mice were vaccinated with these recombinant proteins and the mouse sera were screened for neutralizing antibodies. Whereas a linear N-terminally exposed peptide (L) and surface-exposed parts of the E2 domain A (sA) alone did not induce neutralizing antibodies, a construct containing domain B and a part of the β-ribbon (called B+) was sufficient to induce neutralizing antibodies. Furthermore, domain sA fused to B+ (sAB+) induced the highest amount of neutralizing antibodies. Therefore, the construct sAB+ was used to generate a recombinant modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA), MVA-CHIKV-sAB+. Mice were vaccinated with MVA-CHIKV-sAB+ and/or the recombinant protein sAB+ and were subsequently challenged with wild-type CHIKV. Whereas four vaccinations with MVA-CHIKV-sAB+ were not sufficient to protect mice from a CHIKV infection, protein vaccination with sAB+ markedly reduced the viral titers of vaccinated mice. Conclusions/Significance: The recombinant protein sAB+ contains important structural antigens for a neutralizing antibody response in mice and its formulation with appropriate adjuvants might lead to a future CHIKV vaccine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a critical challenge to communicable disease control and public health response. This study aimed to quantify the association between climate variation and notified cases of HFMD in selected cities of Shanxi Province, and to provide evidence for disease control and prevention. Meteorological variables and HFMD cases data in 4 major cities (Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng) of Shanxi province, China, were obtained from the China Meteorology Administration and China CDC respectively over the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. Correlations analyses and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used to identify and quantify the relationship between the meteorological variables and HFMD. HFMD incidence varied seasonally with the majority of cases in the 4 cities occurring from May to July. Temperatures could play important roles in the incidence of HFMD in these regions. The SARIMA models indicate that a 1° C rise in average, maximum and minimum temperatures may lead to a similar relative increase in the number of cases in the 4 cities. The lag times for the effects of temperatures were identified in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng. The numbers of cases were positively associated with average and minimum temperatures at a lag of 1 week in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, and with maximum temperature at a lag of 2 weeks in Yuncheng. Positive association between the temperature and HFMD has been identified from the 4 cities in Shanxi Province, although the role of weather variables on the transmission of HFMD varied in the 4 cities. Relevant prevention measures and public health action are required to reduce future risks of climate change with consideration of local climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]