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Vector-borne infectious disease such as dengue fever (DF) has spread rapidly due to more suitable living environments. Considering the limited studies investigating the disease spread under climate change in South and Southeast Asia, this study aimed to project the DF transmission potential in 30 locations across four South and Southeast Asian countries. In this study, weekly DF incidence data, daily mean temperature, and rainfall data in 30 locations in Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand from 2012 to 2020 were collected. The effects of temperature and rainfall on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of DF transmission were examined using generalized additive models. Projections of location-specific Rt from 2030s to 2090s were determined using projected temperature and rainfall under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and the peak DF transmissibility and epidemic duration in the future were estimated. According to the results, the projected changes in the peak Rt and epidemic duration varied across locations, and the most significant change was observed under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Under SSP585, the country-specific peak Rt was projected to decrease from 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.39–1.91), 2.60 (1.89–3.57), and 1.41 (1.22–1.64) in 2030s to 1.22 (0.98–1.51), 2.09 (1.26–3.47), and 1.37 (0.83–2.27) in 2090s in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, respectively. Yet, the peak Rt in Sri Lanka changed slightly from 2030s to 2090s under SSP585. The epidemic duration in Singapore and Malaysia was projected to decline under SSP585. In conclusion, the change of peak DF transmission potential and disease outbreak duration would vary across locations, particularly under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Interventions should be considered to slow down global warming as well as the potential increase in DF transmissibility in some locations of South and Southeast Asia. Author summary: Climate change has a significant impact worldwide, including the proliferation of infectious diseases in tropical areas. While the warmer and more humid living conditions in these regions are generally considered favorable for the transmission of vector-borne diseases, we argue that the effects of climate change on DF infection may vary across different locations. Unlike previous studies focusing primarily on the disease incidence, this study aims to estimate changes in peak DF transmissibility and the duration of disease epidemics in the future. By analyzing data from 30 locations in four tropical countries, we have found that changes in DF transmissibility and epidemic duration exhibit variations both within and between countries, particularly under the scenarios of moderate to high greenhouse gas emissions. In light of these findings, we recommend conducting location-specific evaluations of DF transmissibility under the influence of climate change, as well as implementing targeted interventions to mitigate the potential increase in DF transmission rates in specific tropical locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ticks are a hematophagous parasite and a vector of pathogens for numerous human and animal diseases of significant importance. The expansion of tick distribution and the increased risk of tick-borne diseases due to global climate change necessitates further study of the spatial distribution trend of ticks and their potential influencing factors. This study constructed a dataset of tick species distribution in Xinjiang for 60 years based on literature database retrieval and historical data collection (January 1963-January 2023). The distribution data were extracted, corrected, and deduplicated. The dominant tick species were selected for analysis using the MaxEnt model to assess their potential distribution in different periods under the current and BCC-CSM2.MR mode scenarios. The results indicated that there are eight genera and 48 species of ticks in 108 cities and counties of Xinjiang, with Hyalomma asiaticum, Rhipicephalus turanicus, Dermacentor marginatus, and Haemaphysalis punctatus being the top four dominant species. The MaxEnt model analysis revealed that the suitability areas of the four dominant ticks were mainly distributed in the north of Xinjiang, in areas such as Altay and Tacheng Prefecture. Over the next four periods, the medium and high suitable areas within the potential distribution range of the four tick species will expand towards the northwest. Additionally, new suitability areas will emerge in Altay, Changji Hui Autonomous Region, and other local areas. The 60-year tick dataset in this study provides a map of preliminary tick distribution in Xinjiang, with a diverse array of tick species and distribution patterns throughout the area. In addition, the MaxEnt model revealed the spatial change characteristics and future distribution trend of ticks in Xinjiang, which can provide an instrumental data reference for tick monitoring and tick-borne disease risk prediction not only in the region but also in other countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. Author summary: Tick-borne diseases pose a significant threat to public health worldwide, and their spread is being intensified by global climate change. The need for further research into the spatial distribution and influencing factors of ticks is becoming increasingly urgent. Our study compiled a comprehensive 60-year dataset on tick species distribution in Xinjiang to analyze trends and predict future distributions. The study identified eight genera and 48 tick species across 108 cities and counties in Xinjiang, with Hyalomma asiaticum, Rhipicephalus turanicus, Dermacentor marginatus, and Haemaphysalis punctatus being the four dominant species. In addition, our study forecasts a northward expansion of suitable habitats for these species towards Altay and Tacheng Prefecture, with new suitability areas expected in Altay and the Changji Hui Autonomous Region. The findings of this study provide a crucial map of tick distribution and offer valuable insights into future trends, serving as a valuable resource for tick monitoring and disease risk prediction in Xinjiang, particularly in light of the devastating effects of tick-borne diseases on human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM) and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE). In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae); TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter). Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior), reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias, healthcare access) between environmental drivers/exposures and disease detection. Key areas of future research include: disentangling the complex effects of weather/climate on each exposure-health outcome pathway (e.g. person-to-person vs environment-to-person), and linking weather data to individual cases longitudinally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visceral leishmaniasis (also known as kala-azar) is classified as one of the most neglected tropical diseases. It is becoming a growing health problem in Ethiopia, with endemic areas that are continually spreading. The annual burden of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Ethiopia is estimated to be between 4,500 and 5,000 cases, and the population at risk is more than 3.2 million. There has been a change in the epidemiology of VL in Ethiopia. Over the last decades, almost all cases and outbreaks of VL were reported from arid and semi-arid parts of the country; however, recent reports indicated the introduction of this disease into the highlands. Migration of labourers to and from endemic areas, climatic and environmental changes, and impaired immunity due to HIV/AIDS and malnutrition resulted in the change of VL epidemiology. HIV spurs the spread of VL by increasing the risk of progression from asymptomatic infection towards full VL. Conversely, VL accelerates the onset of AIDS. In Ethiopia, VL epidemiology remains complex because of the diversity of risk factors involved, and its control is becoming an increasing challenge. This paper reviews the changes in epidemiology of VL in Ethiopia and discusses some of the possible explanations for these changes. The prospects for novel approaches to VL control are discussed, as are the current and future challenges facing Ethiopia's public health development program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios. Methods: Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue. Results: Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961–1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. Conclusions: Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue. Author summary: Dengue is the most important arboviral disease globally, and the transmission of dengue is closely linked to climate. This review assembled all existing studies which have quantified the impact of climate change on dengue under climate change scenarios. We observed that most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961–1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2014, Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV), with several waves of East-Central-South-African (ECSA) lineage transmission reported across the country. In 2018, Rio de Janeiro state, the third most populous state in Brazil, reported 41% of all chikungunya cases in the country. Here we use evolutionary and epidemiological analysis to estimate the timescale of CHIKV-ECSA-American lineage and its epidemiological patterns in Rio de Janeiro. We show that the CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Rio de Janeiro derived from two distinct clades introduced from the Northeast region in mid-2015 (clade RJ1, n = 63/67 genomes from Rio de Janeiro) and mid-2017 (clade RJ2, n = 4/67). We detected evidence for positive selection in non-structural proteins linked with viral replication in the RJ1 clade (clade-defining: nsP4-A481D) and the RJ2 clade (nsP1-D531G). Finally, we estimate the CHIKV-ECSA's basic reproduction number (R0) to be between 1.2 to 1.6 and show that its instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) displays a strong seasonal pattern with peaks in transmission coinciding with periods of high Aedes aegypti transmission potential. Our results highlight the need for continued genomic and epidemiological surveillance of CHIKV in Brazil, particularly during periods of high ecological suitability, and show that selective pressures underline the emergence and evolution of the large urban CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Rio de Janeiro. Author summary: Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral disease that has emerged as a significant public health concern in many regions worldwide. The state of Rio de Janeiro, a key economic and tourism hub in Brazil, has experienced multiple outbreaks of chikungunya in recent years, resulting in significant morbidity and economic burden. However, our understanding of the establishment and epidemiology of chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro remains limited. We conducted an analysis of chikungunya epidemiology in Rio de Janeiro, focusing on the first four years of virus circulation in the state. We estimated the magnitude of chikungunya transmission during this period, providing evidence that the trends of incidence and transmissibility can be influenced by climatic fluctuations, which impact vector abundance. Through analysis of novel genetic data, we inferred the evolutionary history of the virus, providing evidence of molecular adaptation in the lineage circulating in Rio de Janeiro. These findings highlight the need for designing effective vector control strategies to prevent and mitigate chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro and similar settings. Further research is needed to continue monitoring viral epidemiological trends and to better understand the complex interactions between climatic factors, vector dynamics, and viral evolution in shaping the transmission of this emerging disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections (DRG4), established in 2009 by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), with the mandate to review helminthiases research and identify research priorities and gaps, focuses on the environmental, social, behavioural, and political determinants of human helminth infections and outlines a research and development agenda for the socioeconomic and health systems research required for the development of sustainable control programmes. Using Stockols' social-ecological approach, we describe the role of various social (poverty, policy, stigma, culture, and migration) and environmental determinants (the home environment, water resources development, and climate change) in the perpetuation of helminthic diseases, as well as their impact as contextual factors on health promotion interventions through both the regular and communitybased health systems. We examine these interactions in regard to community participation, intersectoral collaboration, gender, and possibilities for upscaling helminthic disease control and elimination programmes within the context of integrated and interdisciplinary approaches. The research agenda summarises major gaps that need to be addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the Old World, sandfly species of the genus Phlebotomus are known vectors of Leishmania, Bartonella and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing European climate are missing. Methodology: Here, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using MaxEnt for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for Leishmania infantum, which are either predominantly located in (south-) western (Phlebotomus ariasi, P. mascittii and P. perniciosus) or south-eastern Europe (P. neglectus and P. perfiliewi). The determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) for Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) using data of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. We detected the most likely way of natural dispersal ("least-cost path") for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed. Results and Relevance: Results indicate that the Central European climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. In general, the highest suitability of Central Europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for P. perfiliewi. Nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. A northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the Alps. Our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. This is urgently needed for adaptation and coping strategies against the emerging spread of sandfly-borne diseases. Author Summary: Growing evidence exists on the emergence of sandfly-borne diseases in the light of climate change. Determining the principle responses of phlebotomine sandflies to climatic changes supports our understanding of future regions that will be threatened by new-establishments of this important group of disease vectors. The aim of this paper is to combine projected climatic suitability for five Phlebotomus species in Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) for different time-periods during the 21st century with their potential spreading capacity to disperse to climatically suitable areas. We indicate that the Central European climate will develop toward the preferred bioclimatic niche of the species, especially from mid-century onwards. Nevertheless, we also elucidate within this study that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy the whole areas that will provide suitable climatic conditions due to their limited natural dispersal ability. Our approach provides a framework to combine statistical modelling techniques with expert knowledge on species ecology. Indications of future occurrences of disease vectors may help to initiate surveillance systems in specific regions at an early stage of risk exposure. Hence, the threat of the climate-driven spatial extension of disease vectors and consequently of potentially emerging vector-borne diseases can be counteracted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Snakebite envenoming is a serious and life-threatening medical condition that predominantly affects people living in rural communities across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. As our climate changes, there is a growing concern that negative human–snake interactions will increase. Our ability to prevent and manage snakebite requires effective antivenoms as well as knowledge regarding the prevention and management of snakebite among healthcare workers and affected communities across the globe. This systematic review aims to assess existing levels of knowledge regarding snakebite prevention and management in both healthcare workers and affected communities. Methods: This review was conducted on studies reporting quantitative measurements to evaluate knowledge and practice regarding snakebite prevention and management published in major databases between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2021. Random effects modelling was used to obtain the pooled proportion. Heterogeneity (I2) was tested, and sensitivity analyses performed. Results: Out of 3,697 records, 16 studies from 12 countries assessing 7,640 participants were included. Four of the studies were ranked as good quality studies, 9 as fair, and 3 as poor. This study results demonstrated that 56% of the study population answered the knowledge question correctly (95% CI 48% to 63%, p < 0.001). High heterogeneity was observed (I2 = 97.29%), with marginal publication bias (Egger's regression test, p = 0.0814). Participants had relatively higher knowledge concerning use of antivenom as preferred treatment, followed by snakebite prevention, knowledge of signs and symptoms of snakebite, knowledge of first-aid, and knowledge of treatment. Participants had lower knowledge relating to types of snakes and the identification of snakes. Conclusion: Adequate knowledge about snakebites and its management among the general population and healthcare workers was 56%. Healthcare workers and communities across Asia showed higher relative knowledge compared to those in Africa and the Middle East. These data suggest that further education is needed in both the general population and among healthcare workers to ensure that appropriate preventative and patient management techniques are being utilised in snakebite endemic regions. Greater local awareness of the risks and appropriate management of snakebite is required to reduce the burden of snakebite mortality and morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Leptospirosis is an important public health problem affecting vulnerable urban slum populations in developing country settings. However, the complex interaction of meteorological factors driving the temporal trends of leptospirosis remain incompletely understood. Methods and findings: From March 1996—March 2010, we investigated the association between the weekly incidence of leptospirosis and meteorological anomalies in the city of Salvador, Brazil by using a dynamic generalized linear model that accounted for time lags, overall trend, and seasonal variation. Our model showed an increase of leptospirosis cases associated with higher than expected rainfall, lower than expected temperature and higher than expected humidity. There was a lag of one-to-two weeks between weekly values for significant meteorological variables and leptospirosis incidence. Independent of the season, a weekly cumulative rainfall anomaly of 20 mm increased the risk of leptospirosis by 12% compared to a week following the expected seasonal pattern. Finally, over the 14-year study period, the annual incidence of leptospirosis decreased significantly by a factor of 2.7 (8.3 versus 3.0 per 100,000 people), independently of variations in climate. Conclusions: Strategies to control leptospirosis should focus on avoiding contact with contaminated sources of Leptospira as well as on increasing awareness in the population and health professionals within the short time window after low-level or extreme high-level rainfall events. Increased leptospirosis incidence was restricted to one-to-two weeks after those events suggesting that infectious Leptospira survival may be limited to short time intervals. Author summary: To determine the role of meteorological variables, seasonal variation and temporal trends in the incidence of leptospirosis, we investigated the time series of leptospirosis incidence amongst residents of Salvador, Brazil, from 1996 to 2010. Exploratory and confirmatory statistical methods detected associations between meteorological anomalies and disease incidence. Results showed the importance of extreme meteorological conditions, particularly rainfall, as short-term predictors of leptospirosis incidence. In addition, we found a long-term decreasing trend in disease incidence over the observation period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite broad consensus on the importance of community and stakeholder engagement (CSE) for guiding the development, regulation, field testing, and deployment of emerging vector control technologies (such as genetically engineered insects), the types of activities pursued have varied widely, as have the outcomes. We looked to previous CSE efforts for clarity about appropriate methods and goals. Our analysis yielded a typology of CSE, and related vocabulary, that describes distinctions that funders, organizers, and scholars should make when proposing or evaluating CSE. Methods: We compiled available formal documentation of CSE projects, starting with projects mentioned in interviews with 17 key informants. Major features of these examples, including the initiators, target groups, timing, goals, and methods were identified using qualitative coding. Based on these examples, subcategories were developed for a subset of features and applied to the identified cases of CSE in the documents. Co-occurrence of subcategorized features was examined for patterns. Results: We identified 14 documented examples CSE projects, which were comprised of 28 distinct CSE activities. We found no clear patterns with respect to timing. However, we found that grouping examples according to whether initiators or targets could enact the immediate desired outcome could help to clarify relationships between goals, methods, and targets. Conclusion: Based on this analysis, we propose a typology that distinguishes three categories of CSE: engagement to inquire –where initiators are empowered to act on information collected through engagement with target groups; engagement to influence –where initiators engage to affect the actions of already-empowered target groups; and engagement to involve –where initiators engage to delegate authority to target groups. The proposed typology can serve as a guide for establishing the goals, identifying appropriate methods, and evaluating and reporting CSE projects by directing attention to important questions to be asked well before determining who to engage and how. Author summary: Mosquito borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue, are major causes of illness and death worldwide. Furthermore, it is getting harder to control mosquitoes and other disease-carrying pests because global climate change is facilitating their spread to new areas, and over time, mosquitoes develop resistance to pesticides. Scientists are therefore developing new methods for controlling mosquito vectors using new gene editing tools. However, releasing genetically engineered insects into the environment is controversial. Many experts recommend that communities and stakeholders be consulted about if or how to use these new methods, but there are few guidelines for the best way to do this. We examined published accounts of community and stakeholder engagement pertaining to novel vector control and looked for patterns across these cases. We found that many efforts were not described in published sources, but those that were fall into three categories: engagement to influence, engagement to inquire, and engagement to involve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events affect the development and survival of disease pathogens and vectors. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of heat waves on the population dynamics of Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which is a major vector of dengue and Zika viruses. We modeled the population abundance of blood-fed mosquito adults based on a mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus with the consideration of diapause. Using simulated heat wave events derived from a 35-year historical dataset, we assessed how the mosquito population responded to different heat wave characteristics, including the onset day, duration, and the average temperature. Two important observations are made: (1) a heat wave event facilitates the population growth in the early development phase but tends to have an overall inhibitive effect; and (2) two primary factors affecting the development are the unusual onset time of a heat wave and a relatively high temperature over an extended period. We also performed a sensitivity analysis using different heat wave definitions, justifying the robustness of the findings. The study suggests that particular attention should be paid to future heat wave events with an abnormal onset time or a lasting high temperature in order to develop effective strategies to prevent and control Ae. albopictus-borne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9–29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in the global land temperature, expected under predictions of climate change, can directly affect the transmission of some infectious diseases, including Chagas disease, an anthropozoonosis caused by Trypanosoma cruzi and transmitted by arthropod vectors of the subfamily Triatominae. This work seeks to study the effects of temperature on the development of the life cycle, fertility and fecundity of the insect vector Rhodnius prolixus and on the metacyclogenesis of T. cruzi. All of the variables were subjected to 3 temperatures: 26°C, 28°C and 30°C. Hatching time was evaluated, along with time to fifth instar, time to adult, fecundity studied using the e-value, and egg viability during the first 3 reproductive cycles. In addition, the amounts of metacyclic trypomastigotes of the TcI and TcII DTUs in R. prolixus were evaluated from days 2 to 20 at two-day intervals and from weeks 6 to 8 post-infection. Decreases were observed in time to hatching (15–10 days on average) and in time to fifth instar (70–60 days on average) and transition to adult (100–85 days on average). No significant differences in egg viability were observed in any of the reproductive cycles evaluated, but an increase in fecundity was observed at 30°C during the third reproductive cycle. At 30°C, there was also an increase in the number of infective forms and a decrease in the time at which metacyclic trypomastigotes were detected in the rectal ampulla of the insects for both TcI and TcII. According to these results, the expected temperature increase under climate change would cause an increase in the number of insects and a greater probability of infection of the parasite, which affects the transmission of Chagas disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Temperature is an important factor that influences the biology and ecology of intermediate host (IH) snails and the schistosome parasites they transmit. Although temperature shifts due to climate change has been predicted to affect the life history traits of IH snails and parasite production, the mechanisms of how this may affect parasite abundance and disease risks are still not clear. Materials and methods: Using data from laboratory and field experiments, we developed a deterministic compartmental simulation model based on difference equations using a weekly time step that represented the life cycle of Bulinus globosus. We simulated snail population dynamics and the associated production of cercariae assuming current environmental temperatures as well as projected temperature increases of 1 °C and 2 °C. Results: The model generated snail fecundity and survival rates similar to those observed in the laboratory and also produced reasonable snail population dynamics under seasonally varying temperatures representative of generally favorable environmental conditions. Simulated relative abundances of both snails and cercariae decreased with increasing environmental temperatures, with maximum snail abundances decreased by 14% and 27%, and maximum cercariae productions decreased by 8% and 17%, when temperatures were increased by 1 °C and 2 °C, respectively. Conclusion: The results indicate that future rise in temperature due to climate change may alter the abundance of B. globosus and impact on the prevalence of schistosomiasis. Furthermore, increased temperatures may not linearly influence the abundance of S. haematobium. These results may have important implications for schistosomiasis control programmes in view of temperature driven changes in the life history traits of B. globosus and S. haematobium. Our study recommends that the use of deterministic models incorporating the effects of temperature on the life history traits of IH snails would be vital in understanding the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis incidences and prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rodents are reservoirs and hosts for several zoonotic diseases such as plague, leptospirosis, and leishmaniasis. Rapid development of industry and agriculture, as well as climate change throughout the globe, has led to change or increase in occurrence of rodent-borne diseases. Considering the distribution of rodents throughout Iran, the aim of this review is to assess the risk of rodent-borne diseases in Iran. Methodology/Principal finding: We searched Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, Scientific Information Database (SID), and Magiran databases up to September 2016 to obtain articles reporting occurrence of rodent-borne diseases in Iran and extract information from them. Out of 70 known rodent-borne diseases, 34 were reported in Iran: 17 (50%) parasitic diseases, 13 (38%) bacterial diseases, and 4 (12%) viral diseases. Twenty-one out of 34 diseases were reported from both humans and rodents. Among the diseases reported in the rodents of Iran, plague, leishmaniasis, and hymenolepiasis were the most frequent. The most infected rodents were Rattus norvegicus (16 diseases), Mus musculus (14 diseases), Rattus rattus (13 diseases), Meriones persicus (7 diseases), Apodemus spp. (5 diseases), Tatera indica (4 diseases), Meriones libycus (3 diseases), Rhombomys opimus (3 diseases), Cricetulus migratorius (3 diseases), and Nesokia indica (2 diseases). Conclusions/Significance: The results of this review indicate the importance of rodent-borne diseases in Iran. Considering notable diversity of rodents and their extensive distribution throughout the country, it is crucial to pay more attention to their role in spreading infectious diseases for better control of the diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is a highly invasive mosquito whose global distribution has fluctuated dramatically over the last 100 years. In Australia the distribution of Ae. aegypti once spanned the eastern seaboard, for 3,000 km north to south. However, during the 1900s this distribution markedly reduced and the mosquito disappeared from its southern range. Numerous hypotheses have been proffered for this retraction, however quantitative evidence of the mechanisms driving the disappearance are lacking. We examine historical records during the period when Ae. aegypti disappeared from Brisbane, the largest population centre in Queensland, Australia. In particular, we focus on the targeted management of Ae. aegypti by government authorities, that led to local elimination, something rarely observed in large cities. Numerous factors are likely to be responsible including the removal of larval habitat, especially domestic rainwater tanks, in combination with increased mosquito surveillance and regulatory enforcement. This account of historical events as they pertain to the elimination of Ae. aegypti from Brisbane, will inform assessments of the risks posed by recent human responses to climate change and the reintroduction of 300,000 rainwater tanks into the State over the past decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Recurrent cholera outbreaks have been reported in Cameroon since 1971. However, case fatality ratios remain high, and we do not have an optimal understanding of the epidemiology of the disease, due in part to the diversity of Cameroon’s climate subzones and a lack of comprehensive data at the health district level. Methods/Findings: A unique health district level dataset of reported cholera case numbers and related deaths from 2000–2012, obtained from the Ministry of Public Health of Cameroon and World Health Organization (WHO) country office, served as the basis for the analysis. During this time period, 43,474 cholera cases were reported: 1748 were fatal (mean annual case fatality ratio of 7.9%), with an attack rate of 17.9 reported cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Outbreaks occurred in three waves during the 13-year time period, with the highest case fatality ratios at the beginning of each wave. Seasonal patterns of illness differed strikingly between climate subzones (Sudano-Sahelian, Tropical Humid, Guinea Equatorial, and Equatorial Monsoon). In the northern Sudano-Sahelian subzone, highest number of cases tended to occur during the rainy season (July-September). The southern Equatorial Monsoon subzone reported cases year-round, with the lowest numbers during peak rainfall (July-September). A spatial clustering analysis identified multiple clusters of high incidence health districts during 2010 and 2011, which were the 2 years with the highest annual attack rates. A spatiotemporal autoregressive Poisson regression model fit to the 2010–2011 data identified significant associations between the risk of transmission and several factors, including the presence of major waterbody or highway, as well as the average daily maximum temperature and the precipitation levels over the preceding two weeks. The direction and/or magnitude of these associations differed between climate subzones, which, in turn, differed from national estimates that ignored subzones differences in climate variables. Conclusions/Significance: The epidemiology of cholera in Cameroon differs substantially between climate subzones. Development of an optimal comprehensive country-wide control strategy for cholera requires an understanding of the impact of the natural and built environment on transmission patterns at the local level, particularly in the setting of ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a severe threat to human health. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain. Moreover, many studies rely on its similarity to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown ecological comparability. Here we compile a comprehensive spatially-explicit occurrence dataset from Zika viral surveillance and serological surveys based in its native range, and construct ecological niche models to test basic hypotheses about its spread and potential establishment. The hypothesis that the outbreak of cases in Mexico and North America are anomalous and outside the native ecological niche of the disease, and may be linked to either genetic shifts between strains, or El Nino or similar climatic events, remains plausible at this time. Comparison of the Zika niche against the known distribution of dengue fever suggests that Zika is more constrained by the seasonality of precipitation and diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining autochthonous non-sexual transmission to the tropics without significant evolutionary change. Projecting the range of the diseases in conjunction with three major vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, and Ae. albopictus) that transmit the pathogens, under climate change, suggests that Zika has potential for northward expansion; but, based on current knowledge, our models indicate Zika is unlikely to fill the full range its vectors occupy, and public fear of a vector-borne Zika epidemic in the mainland United States is potentially informed by biased or limited scientific knowledge. With recent sexual transmission of the virus globally, we caution that our results only apply to the vector-borne transmission route of the pathogen, and while the threat of a mosquito-carried Zika pandemic may be overstated in the media, other transmission modes of the virus may emerge and facilitate naturalization worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In dengue-endemic areas, transmission shows both a seasonal and interannual variability. To investigate how rainfall impacts dengue seasonality in Singapore, we carried out a longitudinal survey in the Geylang neighborhood from August 2014 to August 2015. The survey comprised of twice-weekly random inspections to outdoor breeding habitats and continuous monitoring for positive ones. In addition, observations of rainstorms were collected. Out of 6824 inspected habitats, 67 contained Aedes aegypti, 11 contained Aedes albopictus and 24 contained Culex spp. The main outdoors habitat of Aedes aegypti was storm drains (54/67). We found that 80% of breeding sites in drains (43/54) were lost after intense rainstorms related to the wet phase of the Northeast monsoon (NE) between November 2014 and early January 2015. Subsequently, 95% (41/43) of these flushed drains had dried out during the dry phase of the NE in late January-February 2015. A return in the outdoor breeding of Aedes aegypti was observed after the onset of Southwest monsoon (SW) between May and August 2015. There was also a reduction in productivity of breeding habitats for larvae and pupae after the onset of the NE. In wet equatorial regions like Singapore, rainfall varies with the monsoons. A monsoon-driven sequence of flushing and drying shapes the outdoor seasonal abundance of Aedes aegypti. This finding can be used to optimize vector control strategies and better understand dengue in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author discuss aspects of the efforts of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) lobby within the 2016 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Topics include the effects of climate change, access to water sanitation and hygiene (WASH), and nature of benefits of NTD programmes. Also mentioned are the benefits of NTD interventions, lobby's recognition for NTDs within the SDGs, and function of the World Health Organization (WHO).

Seasonal-long larvicide treatments and/or outdoor space-spray applications of insecticides are frequently applied to reduce Aedes albopictus nuisance in urban areas of temperate regions, where the species has become a permanent pest affecting people’s quality of life and health. However, assessments of the effectiveness of sequential interventions is a difficult task, as it requires to take into account the cumulative and combined effect of multiple treatments, as well as the mosquito seasonal dynamics (rather than mosquito abundance before and after single treatments). We here present the results of the effectiveness assessment of a seasonal-long calendar-based control intervention integrating larvicide treatments of street catch basins and night-time adulticide ground spraying in the main University hospital in Rome (Italy). Cage-experiments and an intensive monitoring of wild mosquito abundance in treated and untreated sites were carried out along an entire season. Sticky traps were used to monitor adult abundance and site-specific eco-climatic variations (by recording water left over in each trap), in order to disentangle the effect of insecticide treatments from eco-climatic drivers on mosquito seasonal dynamics. Despite the apparent limited impact of single adulticide sprayings assessed based on mortality in caged and wild mosquitoes, the results of the temporal analysis showed that mosquito seasonal patterns were initially comparable in the two sites, diverged in the absence of diverging eco-climatic conditions and remained stable afterwards. This allowed to attribute the lack of the expected Ae. albopictus population expansion in the treated site to the combined effect of multiple adulticide sprayings and larvicide treatments carried out during the whole season. The approach proposed was proved to be successful to assess effects of seasonal-long control treatments on adult mosquito population dynamics and could represent a valuable instrument to assess the effectiveness of other control interventions, to evaluate their actual cost-benefits and to possibly minimize space-spraying applications to reduce mosquito nuisance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The recent geographical expansion of phlebotomine vectors of Leishmania infantum in the Mediterranean subregion has been attributed to ongoing climate changes. At these latitudes, the activity of sand flies is typically seasonal; because seasonal phenomena are also sensitive to general variations in climate, current phenological data sets can provide a baseline for continuing investigations on sand fly population dynamics that may impact on future scenarios of leishmaniasis transmission. With this aim, in 2011–2013 a consortium of partners from eight Mediterranean countries carried out entomological investigations in sites where L. infantum transmission was recently reported. Methods/Principal Findings: A common protocol for sand fly collection included monthly captures by CDC light traps, complemented by sticky traps in most of the sites. Collections were replicated for more than one season in order to reduce the effects of local weather events. In each site, the trapping effort was left unchanged throughout the survey to legitimate inter-seasonal comparisons. Data from 99,000 collected specimens were analyzed, resulting in the description of seasonal dynamics of 56,000 sand flies belonging to L. infantum vector species throughout a wide geographical area, namely P. perniciosus (Portugal, Spain and Italy), P. ariasi (France), P. neglectus (Greece), P. tobbi (Cyprus and Turkey), P. balcanicus and P. kandelakii (Georgia). Time of sand fly appearance/disappearance in collections differed between sites, and seasonal densities showed variations in each site. Significant correlations were found between latitude/mean annual temperature of sites and i) the first month of sand fly appearance, that ranged from early April to the first half of June; ii) the type of density trend, varying from a single peak in July/August to multiple peaks increasing in magnitude from May through September. A 3-modal trend, recorded for P. tobbi in Cyprus, represents a novel finding for a L. infantum vector. Adults ended the activity starting from mid September through November, without significant correlation with latitude/mean annual temperature of sites. The period of potential exposure to L.infantum in the Mediterranean subregion, as inferred by adult densities calculated from 3 years, 37 sites and 6 competent vector species, was associated to a regular bell-shaped density curve having a wide peak center encompassing the July-September period, and falling between early May to late October for more than 99% of values. Apparently no risk for leishmaniasis transmission took place from December through March in the years considered. We found a common pattern of nocturnal females activity, whose density peaked between 11 pm and 2 am. Conclusions: Despite annual variations, multiple collections performed over consecutive years provided homogeneous patterns of the potential behavior of leishmaniasis vectors in selected sites, which we propose may represent sentinel areas for future monitoring. In the investigated years, higher potential risk for L. infantum transmission in the Mediterranean was identified in the June-October period (97% relative vector density), however such risk was not equally distributed throughout the region, since density waves of adults occurred earlier and were more frequent in southern territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ornithodoros turicata is a veterinary and medically important argasid tick that is recognized as a vector of the relapsing fever spirochete Borrelia turicatae and African swine fever virus. Historic collections of O. turicata have been recorded from Latin America to the southern United States. However, the geographic distribution of this vector is poorly understood in relation to environmental variables, their hosts, and consequently the pathogens they transmit. Methodology: Localities of O. turicata were generated by performing literature searches, evaluating records from the United States National Tick Collection and the Symbiota Collections of Arthropods Network, and by conducting field studies. Maximum entropy species distribution modeling (Maxent) was used to predict the current distribution of O. turicata. Vertebrate host diversity and GIS analyses of their distributions were used to ascertain the area of shared occupancy of both the hosts and vector. Conclusions and Significance: Our results predicted previously unrecognized regions of the United States with habitat that may maintain O. turicata and could guide future surveillance efforts for a tick capable of transmitting high–consequence pathogens to human and animal populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. Methodology/Principal Findings: We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Conclusions/Significance: Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood. Author Summary: During last years, we have seen an astonishing expansion of Chikungunya virus and an increase in dengue cases worldwide, together with the worldwide expansion of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus. In addition, extreme rainfall events are envisaged to become increasingly likely as a result of ongoing climate change, but controversy surrounds the relationship between extreme rainfall events and mosquito-borne diseases. The common view in most works on climate and mosquito-borne diseases is that heavy rainfalls produce a flushing effect of immature mosquitoes in breeding containers, diminishing the mosquito abundance and in turn diminishing disease transmission. We analysed the relationships between the autochthonous chikungunya transmission in Montpellier (Southern France) in 2014, an extreme rainfall event that flooded the city, and a close monitoring of the vector Ae. albopictus, revealing an unexpected pattern. This extreme rainfall event did not, in fact, decrease but instead had increased the global risk of chikungunya transmission by sustaining high abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence extending the transmission period. We propose that an effort on source reduction campaigns must be implemented after heavy rainfall events. These results are relevant to those involved in the surveillance and control of chikungunya and dengue transmission in temperate as well as tropical areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) causes high fever and severe joint pain in humans. It is expected to spread in the future to Europe and has recently reached the USA due to globalization, climate change and vector switch. Despite this, little is known about the virus life cycle and, so far, there is no specific treatment or vaccination against Chikungunya infections. We aimed here to identify small antigenic determinants of the CHIKV E2 protein able to induce neutralizing immune responses. Methodology/Principal Findings: E2 enables attachment of the virus to target cells and a humoral immune response against E2 should protect from CHIKV infections. Seven recombinant proteins derived from E2 and consisting of linear and/or structural antigens were created, and were expressed in and purified from E. coli. BALB/c mice were vaccinated with these recombinant proteins and the mouse sera were screened for neutralizing antibodies. Whereas a linear N-terminally exposed peptide (L) and surface-exposed parts of the E2 domain A (sA) alone did not induce neutralizing antibodies, a construct containing domain B and a part of the β-ribbon (called B+) was sufficient to induce neutralizing antibodies. Furthermore, domain sA fused to B+ (sAB+) induced the highest amount of neutralizing antibodies. Therefore, the construct sAB+ was used to generate a recombinant modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA), MVA-CHIKV-sAB+. Mice were vaccinated with MVA-CHIKV-sAB+ and/or the recombinant protein sAB+ and were subsequently challenged with wild-type CHIKV. Whereas four vaccinations with MVA-CHIKV-sAB+ were not sufficient to protect mice from a CHIKV infection, protein vaccination with sAB+ markedly reduced the viral titers of vaccinated mice. Conclusions/Significance: The recombinant protein sAB+ contains important structural antigens for a neutralizing antibody response in mice and its formulation with appropriate adjuvants might lead to a future CHIKV vaccine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a critical challenge to communicable disease control and public health response. This study aimed to quantify the association between climate variation and notified cases of HFMD in selected cities of Shanxi Province, and to provide evidence for disease control and prevention. Meteorological variables and HFMD cases data in 4 major cities (Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng) of Shanxi province, China, were obtained from the China Meteorology Administration and China CDC respectively over the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. Correlations analyses and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used to identify and quantify the relationship between the meteorological variables and HFMD. HFMD incidence varied seasonally with the majority of cases in the 4 cities occurring from May to July. Temperatures could play important roles in the incidence of HFMD in these regions. The SARIMA models indicate that a 1° C rise in average, maximum and minimum temperatures may lead to a similar relative increase in the number of cases in the 4 cities. The lag times for the effects of temperatures were identified in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng. The numbers of cases were positively associated with average and minimum temperatures at a lag of 1 week in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, and with maximum temperature at a lag of 2 weeks in Yuncheng. Positive association between the temperature and HFMD has been identified from the 4 cities in Shanxi Province, although the role of weather variables on the transmission of HFMD varied in the 4 cities. Relevant prevention measures and public health action are required to reduce future risks of climate change with consideration of local climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America. Methodology/Principal Findings: We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change. Conclusions/Significance: The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change. Author Summary: Chagas disease kills thousands of people annually. Triatomine insects (family Reduviidae, sub-family Triatominae), can be potential vectors of the parasite (Trypanosoma cruzi) that causes the disease. There are often no symptoms until cardiac and digestive system dysfunction (possibly including heart failure) after 10 to 30 years of infection. Climate change can shift the distribution of triatomine insects, favoring the spread of the disease to non-original areas. We used distributional information on the most commonly found triatomine species and the most important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in South Texas and North Mexico (T. gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga), and explanatory climatic variables to forecast the potential distribution of the insects in the year 2050. We used two different scenarios of climate change and three different general circulation models. Our results showed that the triatomine species studied will likely shift their distribution northwards in the future. There is thus a need to monitor areas that are not currently endemic for Chagas disease but may potentially be affected in the future due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America. Methodology/Principal Findings: We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change. Conclusions/Significance: The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather factors are widely studied for their effects on indicating dengue incidence trends. However, these studies have been limited due to the complex epidemiology of dengue, which involves dynamic interplay of multiple factors such as herd immunity within a population, distinct serotypes of the virus, environmental factors and intervention programs. In this study, we investigate the impact of weather factors on dengue in Singapore, considering the disease epidemiology and profile of virus serotypes. A Poisson regression combined with Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) was used to evaluate and compare the impact of weekly Absolute Humidity (AH) and other weather factors (mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed) on dengue incidence from 2001 to 2009. The same analysis was also performed on three sub-periods, defined by predominant circulating serotypes. The performance of DLNM regression models were then evaluated through the Akaike's Information Criterion. From the correlation and DLNM regression modeling analyses of the studied period, AH was found to be a better predictor for modeling dengue incidence than the other unique weather variables. Whilst mean temperature (MeanT) also showed significant correlation with dengue incidence, the relationship between AH or MeanT and dengue incidence, however, varied in the three sub-periods. Our results showed that AH had a more stable impact on dengue incidence than temperature when virological factors were taken into consideration. AH appeared to be the most consistent factor in modeling dengue incidence in Singapore. Considering the changes in dominant serotypes, the improvements in vector control programs and the inconsistent weather patterns observed in the sub-periods, the impact of weather on dengue is modulated by these other factors. Future studies on the impact of climate change on dengue need to take all the other contributing factors into consideration in order to make meaningful public policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue virus transmission occurs in both epidemic and endemic cycles across tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Incidence is particularly high in much of Southeast Asia, where hyperendemic transmission plagues both urban and rural populations. However, endemicity has not been established in some areas with climates that may not support year-round viral transmission. An understanding of how dengue viruses (DENV) enter these environments and whether the viruses persist in inapparent local transmission cycles is central to understanding how dengue emerges in areas at the margins of endemic transmission. Dengue is highly endemic in tropical southern Vietnam, while increasingly large seasonal epidemics have occurred in northern Viet Nam over the last decade. We have investigated the spread of DENV-1 throughout Vietnam to determine the routes by which the virus enters northern and central regions of the country. Phylogeographic analysis of 1,765 envelope (E) gene sequences from Southeast Asia revealed frequent movement of DENV between neighboring human populations and strong local clustering of viral lineages. Long-distance migration of DENV between human population centers also occurred regularly and on short time-scales, indicating human-mediated viral invasion into northern Vietnam. Human populations in southern Vietnam were found to be the primary source of DENV circulating throughout the country, while central and northern Vietnam acted as sink populations, likely due to reduced connectedness to other populations in the case of the central regions and to the influence of temperature variability on DENV replication and vector survival and competence in the north. Finally, phylogeographic analyses suggested that viral movement follows a gravity model and indicates that population immunity and physical and economic connections between populations may play important roles in shaping patterns of DENV transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. Author Summary: The present study models the niche of the most abundant sand fly species in North and Central America, including all proven and incriminated vectors of Leishmaniases, an important neglected tropical disease of the region. The expansion and elevation or centroid shifts of the species' niche are modeled for extreme (A2) and conservative (B2) climate change scenarios to 2020, 2050 and 2080. In climate change scenarios, models predict significant niche breadth changes in geographic space, principally in temperate sand fly species, while elevation shifts occur principally in tropical, and greatest, in vector species. Niche centroid shifts for individual species were predominately to the northwest, and secondarily to the northeast. The highest proportion of human population at-risk for contact with a vector species was with Lutzomyia diabolica and Lutzomyia shannoni. Despite the fact that Lutzomyia olmeca olmeca is the only confirmed vector species in Mexico, the present study demonstrates a significant niche identity between Leishmania spp. and Lutzomyia cruciata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis across Asia with approximately 70,000 cases a year and 10,000 to 15,000 deaths. Because JE incidence varies widely over time, partly due to inter-annual climate variability effects on mosquito vector abundance, it becomes more complex to assess the effects of a vaccination programme since more or less climatically favourable years could also contribute to a change in incidence post-vaccination. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify vaccination effect on confirmed Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in Sarawak, Malaysia after controlling for climate variability to better understand temporal dynamics of JE virus transmission and control. Methodology/principal findings: Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases. Conclusions/significance: This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The impact of global climate change on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is the subject of extensive debate. The transmission of mosquito-borne viral diseases is particularly complex, with climatic variables directly affecting many parameters associated with the prevalence of disease vectors. While evidence shows that warmer temperatures often decrease the extrinsic incubation period of an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus), exposure to cooler temperatures often predisposes disease vector mosquitoes to higher infection rates. RNA interference (RNAi) pathways are essential to antiviral immunity in the mosquito; however, few experiments have explored the effects of temperature on the RNAi machinery. Methodology/Principal Findings: We utilized transgenic “sensor” strains of Aedes aegypti to examine the role of temperature on RNA silencing. These “sensor” strains express EGFP only when RNAi is inhibited; for example, after knockdown of the effector proteins Dicer-2 (DCR-2) or Argonaute-2 (AGO-2). We observed an increase in EGFP expression in transgenic sensor mosquitoes reared at 18°C as compared with 28°C. Changes in expression were dependent on the presence of an inverted repeat with homology to a portion of the EGFP sequence, as transgenic strains lacking this sequence, the double stranded RNA (dsRNA) trigger for RNAi, showed no change in EGFP expression when reared at 18°C. Sequencing small RNAs in sensor mosquitoes reared at low temperature revealed normal processing of dsRNA substrates, suggesting the observed deficiency in RNAi occurs downstream of DCR-2. Rearing at cooler temperatures also predisposed mosquitoes to higher levels of infection with both chikungunya and yellow fever viruses. Conclusions/Significance: This data suggest that microclimates, such as those present in mosquito breeding sites, as well as more general climactic variables may influence the dynamics of mosquito-borne viral diseases by affecting the antiviral immunity of disease vectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Human alveolar echinococcocosis (AE) is a highly pathogenic zoonotic disease caused by the larval stage of the cestode E. multilocularis. Its life-cycle includes more than 40 species of small mammal intermediate hosts. Therefore, host biodiversity losses could be expected to alter transmission. Climate may also have possible impacts on E. multilocularis egg survival. We examined the distribution of human AE across two spatial scales, (i) for continental China and (ii) over the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We tested the hypotheses that human disease distribution can be explained by either the biodiversity of small mammal intermediate host species, or by environmental factors such as climate or landscape characteristics. Methodology/findings: The distributions of 274 small mammal species were mapped to 967 point locations on a grid covering continental China. Land cover, elevation, monthly rainfall and temperature were mapped using remotely sensed imagery and compared to the distribution of human AE disease at continental scale and over the eastern Tibetan plateau. Infection status of 17,589 people screened by abdominal ultrasound in 2002-2008 in 94 villages of Tibetan areas of western Sichuan and Qinghai provinces was analyzed using generalized additive mixed models and related to epidemiological and environmental covariates. We found that human AE was not directly correlated with small mammal reservoir host species richness, but rather was spatially correlated with landscape features and climate which could confirm and predict human disease hotspots over a 200,000 km² region. Conclusions/Significance: E. multilocularis transmission and resultant human disease risk was better predicted from landscape features that could support increases of small mammal host species prone to population outbreaks, rather than host species richness. We anticipate that our study may be a starting point for further research wherein landscape management could be used to predict human disease risk and for controlling this zoonotic helminthic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by Hantaviruses. It is endemic in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and metropolitan areas in mainland China where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Shandong Province is among the most serious endemic areas. HFRS cases in Shandong Province were first reported in Yutai County in 1968. Since then, the disease has spread across the province, and as of 2005, all 111 counties were reported to have local human infections. However, causes underlying such rapid spread and wide distribution remain less well understood. Methods and Findings: Here we report a spatiotemporal analysis of human HFRS cases in Shandong using data spanning 1973 to 2005. Seasonal incidence maps and velocity vector maps were produced to analyze the spread of HFRS over time in Shandong Province, and a panel data analysis was conducted to explore the association between HFRS incidence and climatic factors. Results show a rapid spread of HFRS from its epicenter in Rizhao, Linyi, Weifang Regions in southern Shandong to north, east, and west parts of the province. Based on seasonal shifts of epidemics, three epidemic phases were identified over the 33-year period. The first phase occurred between 1973 and 1982 during which the foci of HFRS was located in the south Shandong and the epidemic peak occurred in the fall and winter, presenting a seasonal characteristic of Hantaan virus (HTNV) transmission. The second phase between 1983 and 1985 was characterized by northward and westward spread of HFRS foci, and increases in incidence of HFRS in both fall-winter and spring seasons. The human infections in the spring reflected a characteristic pattern of Seoul virus (SEOV) transmission. The third phase between 1986 and 2005 was characterized by the northeast spread of the HFRS foci until it covered all counties, and the HFRS incidence in the fall-winter season decreased while it remained high in the spring. In addition, our findings suggest that precipitation, humidity, and temperature are major environmental variables that are associated with the seasonal variation of HFRS incidence in Shandong Province. Conclusions: The spread of HFRS in Shandong Province may have been accompanied by seasonal shifts of HTNV-dominated transmission to SEOV-dominated transmission over the past three decades. The variations in HFRS incidence were significantly associated with local precipitation, humidity, and temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The developmental time of vector insects is important in population dynamics, evolutionary biology, epidemiology and in their responses to global climatic change. In the triatomines (Triatominae, Reduviidae), vectors of Chagas disease, evolutionary ecology concepts, which may allow for a better understanding of their biology, have not been applied. Despite delay in the molting in some individuals observed in triatomines, no effort was made to explain this variability. Methodology: We applied four methods: (1) an e-mail survey sent to 30 researchers with experience in triatomines, (2) a statistical description of the developmental time of eleven triatomine species, (3) a relationship between development time pattern and climatic inter-annual variability, (4) a mathematical optimization model of evolution of developmental delay (diapause). Principal Findings: 85.6% of responses informed on prolonged developmental times in 5th instar nymphs, with 20 species identified with remarkable developmental delays. The developmental time analysis showed some degree of bi-modal pattern of the development time of the 5th instars in nine out of eleven species but no trend between development time pattern and climatic inter-annual variability was observed. Our optimization model predicts that the developmental delays could be due to an adaptive risk-spreading diapause strategy, only if survival throughout the diapause period and the probability of random occurrence of "bad" environmental conditions are sufficiently high. Conclusions/Significance: Developmental delay may not be a simple non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity in development time, and could be a form of adaptive diapause associated to a physiological mechanism related to the postponement of the initiation of reproduction, as an adaptation to environmental stochasticity through a spreading of risk (bet-hedging) strategy. We identify a series of parameters that can be measured in the field and laboratory to test this hypothesis. The importance of these findings is discussed in terms of global climatic change and epidemiological consequences. Author Summary: The developmental time of vector insects is important to their population dynamics, evolutionary biology, epidemiology of the diseases they transmit, and to their responses to global climatic change. In various triatomine species vectors of Chagas disease (Triatominae, Reduviidae), a delay in the molt of a small proportion of individuals has been observed, and from an evolutionary ecology approach, we propose the hypothesis that the developmental delay is an adaptation to environmental stochasticity through a spreading of risk (bet-hedging) diapause strategy. We confirmed, by means of a survey among specialists, the existence of the developmental delay in triatomines. Statistical descriptions of the developmental time of 11 species of triatomines showed some degree of bi-modality in nine of them. We predicted by means of an optimization model which genotype, coding for a given frequency of developmental diapause, is expected to evolve. We identified a series of parameters that can be measured in the field and in the laboratory to test the hypothesis of an optimal diapause frequency. We also discuss the importance of these findings for triatomines in terms of global climatic change and epidemiological consequences such as their resistance to insecticides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada), leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis. Methods and Findings: The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica), three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus), and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana) for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed vector and reservoir species will see an expansion of their potential range towards the north. Thus, leishmaniasis has the potential to expand northwards from México and the southern United States. In the eastern United States its spread is predicted to be limited by the range of L. diabolica; further west, L. anthophora may play the same role. In the east it may even reach the southern boundary of Canada. The risk of spread is greater for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario. Even in the latter case, with restrictive (contiguous) models for dispersal of vector and reservoir species, and limiting vector and reservoir species occupancy to only the top 10% of their potential suitable habitat, the expected number of human individuals exposed to leishmaniasis by 2080 will at least double its present value. Conclusions: These models predict that climate change will exacerbate the ecological risk of human exposure to leishmaniasis in areas outside its present range in the United States and, possibly, in parts of southern Canada. This prediction suggests the adoption of measures such as surveillance for leishmaniasis north of Texas as disease cases spread northwards. Potential vector and reservoir control strategies—besides direct intervention in disease cases—should also be further investigated. Author Summary: We explored the consequences of climate change for the spread of leishmaniasis in North America. We modeled the distribution of two sand fly vector and four rodent reservoir species found in northern México and the southern United States. Models were based on occurrence data and environmental and topographic layers. Successful models were projected to 2020, 2050, and 2080 using an extreme (A2) and a conservative (B2) future climate scenario. We predicted potential range shifts of vector and reservoir species varying assumptions about dispersal ability and capacity to persist in habitats with different degrees of ecological suitability. Even with the most conservative assumptions the distributions of both vector and reservoir species expand northwards, potentially reaching as far as southern Canada in the east. Assuming that at least one vector and one reservoir species must be present for a parasite cycle, the extent of this shift is predicted to be controlled by the availability of suitable habitat for sand fly vector species. Finally, we computed the human population potentially exposed to leishmaniasis because of these range shifts. Even in the most optimistic scenario we found that twice as many individuals could be exposed to leishmaniasis in North America in 2080 compared to today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region's urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales and other populated centres in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced. Methodology/Principal Findings: Having collated the known distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we built distributional models using a genetic algorithm to project Ae. aegypti's distribution under today's climate and under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 and compared the outputs to published theoretical temperature limits. Incongruence identified between the models and theoretical temperature limits highlighted the difficulty of using point occurrence data to study a species whose distribution is mediated more by human activity than by climate. Synthesis of this data with dengue transmission climate limits in Australia derived from historical dengue epidemics suggested that a proliferation of domestic water storage tanks in Australia could result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti which would present a risk of dengue transmission in most major cities during their warm summer months. Conclusions/Significance: In the debate of the role climate change will play in the future range of dengue in Australia, we conclude that the increased risk of an Ae. aegypti range expansion in Australia would be due not directly to climate change but rather to human adaptation to the current and forecasted regional drying through the installation of large domestic water storing containers. The expansion of this efficient dengue vector presents both an emerging and re-emerging disease risk to Australia. Therefore, if the installation and maintenance of domestic water storage tanks is not tightly controlled, Ae. aegypti could expand its range again and cohabit with the majority of Australia's population, presenting a high potential dengue transmission risk during our warm summers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]