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Background: CD4 cell counts is widely used as a biomarker for treatment progression when studying the efficacy of drugs to treat HIV-infected patients. In the past, it had been also used in determining eligibility to initiate antiretroviral therapy. The main aim of this was to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time and use this model for an early prediction of subject-specific time to cross a pre-specified CD4 threshold. Methods: Hospital based retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected patients was conducted from January 2009 to December 2014 at University of Gondar hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Fractional polynomial random effect model is used to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time in response to treatment and to estimate the individual probability to be above a pre-selected CD4 threshold. Human subject research approval for this study was received from University of Gondar Research Ethics Committee and the medical director of the hospital. Results: A total of 1347 patients were included in the analysis presented in this paper. The cohort contributed a total of 236.58 per 100 person-years of follow-up. Later the data were divided into two periods: the first is the estimation period in which the parameters of the model are estimated and the second is the prediction period. Based on the parameters from the estimation period, model based prediction for the time to cross a threshold was estimated. The correlations between observed and predicted values of CD4 levels in the estimation period were 0.977 and 0.982 for Neverapine and Efavirenz containing regimens, respectively; while the correlation between the observed and predicted CD4 counts in the prediction period are 0.742 and 0.805 for NVP and EFV, respectively. Conclusions: The model enables us to estimate a subject-specific expected time to cross a CD4 threshold and to estimate a subject-specific probability to have CD4 count above a pre-specified threshold at each time point. By predicting long-term outcomes of CD4 count of the patients one can advise patient about the potential ART benefits that accrue in the long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing child undernutrition is a key social policy objective of the Ethiopian government. Despite substantial reduction over the last decade and a half, child undernutrition is still high; with 48 percent of children either stunted, underweight or wasted, undernutrition remains an important child health challenge. The existing literature highlights that targeting of efforts to reduce undernutrition in Ethiopia is inefficient, in part due to lack of data and updated information. This paper remedies some of this shortfall by estimating levels of stunting and underweight in each woreda for 2014. The estimates are small area estimations based on the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey and the latest population census. It is shown that small area estimations are powerful predictors of undernutrition, even compared to household characteristics, such as wealth and education, and hence a valuable targeting metric. The results show large variations in share of children undernourished within each region, more than between regions. The results also show that the locations with larger challenges depend on the chosen undernutrition statistic, as the share, number and concentration of undernourished children point to vastly different locations. There is also limited correlation between share of children underweight and stunted across woredas, indicating that different locations face different challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methodologies to measure gender-based violence (GBV) have received inadequate attention, especially in humanitarian contexts where vulnerabilities to violence are exacerbated. This paper compares the results from individual audio computer-assisted self-administered (ACASI) survey interviews with results from participatory social mapping activities, employed with the same sample in two different post-conflict contexts. Eighty-seven internally displaced adolescent girls from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and 78 Sudanese girls living in Ethiopian refugee camps were interviewed using the two methodologies. Results revealed that the group-based qualitative method elicited narratives of violence focusing on events perpetrated by strangers or members of the community more distantly connected to girls. In contrast, ACASI interviews revealed violence predominantly perpetrated by family members and intimate partners. These findings suggest that group-based methods of information gathering frequently used in the field may be more susceptible to socially accepted narratives. Specifically, our findings suggest group-based methods may produce results showing that sexual violence perpetrated by strangers (e.g., from armed groups in the conflict) is more prevalent than violence perpetrated by family and intimate partners. To the extent this finding is true, it may lead to a skewed perception that adolescent GBV involving strangers is a more pressing issue than intimate partner and family-based sexual violence, when in fact, both are of great concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of maternal autonomy on child schooling outcomes in Ethiopia using a nationally representative Ethiopian Demographic and Health survey for 2011. The empirical strategy uses a Hurdle Negative Binomial Regression model to estimate years of schooling. An ordered probit model is also estimated to examine age grade distortion using a trichotomous dependent variable that captures three states of child schooling. The large sample size and the range of questions available in this dataset allow us to explore the influence of individual and household level social, economic and cultural factors on child schooling. The analysis finds statistically significant effects of maternal autonomy variables on child schooling in Ethiopia. The roles of maternal autonomy and other household-level factors on child schooling are important issues in Ethiopia, where health and education outcomes are poor for large segments of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Ethiopia achieved a rapid expansion of TB microscopic centers for acid fast bacilli (AFB). However, external quality assurance (EQA) services were, until recently, limited to few regional and sub-regional laboratories. In this paper, we describe the decentralization experience and the result of EQA using random blinded rechecking. Materials and Methods: The routine EQA quarterly report was compiled and analyzed. A positive result by the microscopic center while the EQA center reported negative result is categorized as false positive (FP). A negative result by the microscopic center while the EQA center reported positive is considered false negative (FN). The reading of EQA centers was considered a gold standard to compute the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the readings of microscopic centers. Results: We decentralized sputum smear AFB EQA from 4 Regional Laboratories (RRLs) to 82 EQA centers and enrolled 956 health facilities in EQA schemes. Enrollment of HFs in EQA was gradual because it required training and mentoring laboratory professionals, institutionalizing internal QA measures, equipping all HFs to perform diagnosis, and establishing more EQA centers. From 2012 to 2014 (Phase I), the FP rate declined from 0.6% to 0.2% and FN fell from as high as 7.6% to 1.6% in supported health facilities (HFs). In HFs that joined in Phase II, FN rates ranged from 5.6 to 7.3%. The proportion of HFs without errors has increased from 77.9% to 90.5% in Phase I HFs and from 82.9% to 86.9% in Phase II HFs. Overall sensitivity and specificity were 95.0% and 99.7%, respectively. PPV and NPV were 93.3% and 99.7%, respectively. Conclusion: Decentralizing blinded rechecking of sputum smear microscopy is feasible in low-income settings. While a comprehensive laboratory improvement strategy enhanced the quality of microscopy, laboratory professionals’ capacity in slide reading and smear quality requires continued support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]