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Ecoregionalization is the process by which a territory is classified in similar areas according to specific environmental and climatic factors. The climate and the environment strongly influence the presence and distribution of vectors responsible for significant human and animal diseases worldwide. In this paper, we developed a map of the eco-climatic regions of Italy adopting a data-driven spatial clustering approach using recent and detailed spatial data on climatic and environmental factors. We selected seven variables, relevant for a broad set of human and animal vector-borne diseases (VBDs): standard deviation of altitude, mean daytime land surface temperature, mean amplitude and peak timing of the annual cycle of land surface temperature, mean and amplitude of the annual cycle of greenness value, and daily mean amount of rainfall. Principal Component Analysis followed by multivariate geographic clustering using the k-medoids technique were used to group the pixels with similar characteristics into different ecoregions, and at different spatial resolutions (250 m, 1 km and 2 km). We showed that the spatial structure of ecoregions is generally maintained at different spatial resolutions and we compared the resulting ecoregion maps with two datasets related to Bluetongue vectors and West Nile Disease (WND) outbreaks in Italy. The known characteristics of Culicoides imicola habitat were well captured by 2/22 specific ecoregions (at 250 m resolution). Culicoides obsoletus/scoticus occupy all sampled ecoregions, according to its known widespread distribution across the peninsula. WND outbreak locations strongly cluster in 4/22 ecoregions, dominated by human influenced landscape, with intense cultivations and complex irrigation network. This approach could be a supportive tool in case of VBDs, defining pixel-based areas that are conducive environment for VBD spread, indicating where surveillance and prevention measures could be prioritized in Italy. Also, ecoregions suitable to specific VBDs vectors could inform entomological surveillance strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The monitoring of seasonal influenza yearly epidemics remains one of the main activity of national syndromic surveillance systems. The development of internet-based surveillance tools has brought an innovative approach to seasonal influenza surveillance by directly involving self-selected volunteers among the general population reporting their health status on a weekly basis throughout the flu season. In this paper, we explore how Influweb, an internet-based monitoring system for influenza surveillance, deployed in Italy since 2008 has performed during three years from 2012 to 2015 in comparison with data collected during the same period by the Italian sentinel doctors surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Nabiximols (THC/CBD Oromucosal Spray, Sativex) is used as an add-on therapy to treat moderate to severe spasticity of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Objectives: To examine the impact of physiotherapy (PT) programs on effectiveness and persistence of nabiximols treatment in people with MS-related spasticity. Methods: This is an observational multicenter study with a follow-up period of 12 weeks, conducted in routine care settings in Italy. Patients with moderate to severe MS-related spasticity who started nabiximols were included. Spasticity was evaluated by the patient-rated 0–10 numerical rating scale (NRS). Clinical data were collected at baseline (T0), 4 weeks (T1) and 12 weeks (T2) months after enrollment. Results: A total of 297 MS patients were selected, 290 completed the 3 months follow-up period. Mean NRS scores were 7.6 ± 1.1 at T0, 5.8 ± 1.4 at T1 and 5.5 ± 1.5 at T2. At T1, 77% of patients reached ≥20% improvement (initial response, IR); 22% reached ≥30% improvement (clinically relevant response, CRR). At T1, patients undergoing PT had a higher probability to reach CRR (Odds Ratio = 2.6 95% CI 1.3–5.6, p = 0.01). Nabiximols was discontinued in 30/290 (10.3%) patients at T1 (early discontinuers) and in 71/290 (24.5%) patients at T2 (late discontinuers). The probability of being late discontinuers was reduced in patients undergoing PT (Hazard Ratio = 0.41; 95% CI 0.23–0.69, p = 0.001). Conclusions: Our real-life study confirms nabiximols’ effectiveness in MS-related spasticity and suggests that the association of a PT program may improve overall response and persistence to nabiximols treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase of multidrug resistance and resistance to last-line antibiotics is a major global public health threat. Although surveillance programs provide useful current and historical information on the scale of the problem, the future emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance is uncertain, and quantifying this uncertainty is crucial for guiding decisions about investment in antibiotics and resistance control strategies. Mathematical and statistical models capable of projecting future rates are challenged by the paucity of data and the complexity of the emergence and spread of resistance, but experts have relevant knowledge. We use the Classical Model of structured expert judgment to elicit projections with uncertainty bounds of resistance rates through 2026 for nine pathogen-antibiotic pairs in four European countries and empirically validate the assessments against data on a set of calibration questions. The performance-weighted combination of experts in France, Spain, and the United Kingdom projected that resistance for five pairs on the World Health Organization’s priority pathogens list (E. coli and K. pneumoniae resistant to third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems and MRSA) would remain below 50% in 2026. In Italy, although upper bounds of 90% credible ranges exceed 50% resistance for some pairs, the medians suggest Italy will sustain or improve its current rates. We compare these expert projections to statistical forecasts based on historical data from the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net). Results from the statistical models differ from each other and from the judgmental forecasts in many cases. The judgmental forecasts include information from the experts about the impact of current and future shifts in infection control, antibiotic usage, and other factors that cannot be easily captured in statistical forecasts, demonstrating the potential of structured expert judgment as a tool for better understanding the uncertainty about future antibiotic resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The increasing burden of chronic diseases associated with the ageing of the European population constitutes one of the main challenges for the welfare systems in developed western countries, especially through its impact on the use of hospital services and the cost of care. This study aims at evaluating the cost of hospital care for older adults living in the Lazio Region, Italy, according to their level of frailty. Methods: Since 2014 a longitudinal randomized cohort study has been carried out on a sample consisting of 1280 older adults aged over 64 years resident in the Lazio region (Italy), with their being evaluated for multidimensional frailty. Accesses to Hospital Services (acute care and Day Hospital care admissions and Emergency Room accesses) during the first year after enrolment, as well as the related costs have been recorded through a regional database. Costs have been stratified on the basis of the state of frailty. Results: The analysis of hospital services and costs highlights the role played by pre-frail individuals who generated 49.3% of the hospital care cumulative costs. Hospital Admission (HA) costs arising from robust and pre-frail subjects are 70% of the total HA costs. Pre-frail individuals also showed the highest average HA cost per person/year (7062.89 Euros). The main determinant of the highest HA costs was given by the number of HAs during the follow-up (multivariate linear regression, ß coefficient = 0.319; p<0.001), which was higher among pre-frail individuals than in any other group of patients. Conclusions: Pre-frail individuals generated the highest cost for hospital care in a sample of representative subjects living in an Italian Region with a low rate of community care services, as is the case in the Lazio region. Assessment of the multidimensional frailty of older adults permits a better definition of the important target of the pre-frail population as the main category within which interventions to prevent or mitigate frailty should be carried out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about the types of social organization characterizing the pre-Roman Celtic populations of Italy. Here, we explore the funerary variability characterizing the late Iron Age site of Seminario Vescovile (SV: Verona, Italy, 3rd-1st c. BC), and test its possible correlation to diet and relative exposure to developmental stressors. Patterns on funerary treatment (N = 125), δ13C and δ15N (N = 90), and linear enamel hypoplasia (N = 47) from SV are compared, and their possible association with sex and age-at-death further discussed. Results point to the presence at SV of variable funerary customs while at the same time demonstrating a rather homogenous diet and exposure to developmental stressors: funerary treatment is mainly correlated to age-at-death but do not appear to be associated to either isotopic patterns or hypoplasia frequencies. Accordingly, even if some weak social differentiation may have characterized the individuals buried at SV, this was not reflected in markedly differing living conditions. Our study is the first to attempt an exploration of the links between age, sex, funerary variability, and diet in a pre-Roman Celtic community from Italy. While highlighting the potential of a multifaceted approach in bioarcheology, it also points to a series of analytical and theoretical issues relevant when trying to disentangle the cultural and biological dimensions of social differentiation in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brucellosis is a major public health problem still prevalent as a neglected endemic zoonosis requiring proactive attention in many communities worldwide. The present study involved analysis of Brucella field strains submitted for typing to the Italian National Reference Laboratory for Brucellosis from 2007 to 2015. Strains were identified at the species and biovar levels by classic and molecular techniques according to the World Organisation for Animal Health Manual. In total, 5,784 strains were typed: 3,089 Brucella abortus (53.4%), 2,497 B. melitensis (43.2%), 10 B. ovis (0.2%), 181 B. suis (3.1%), and 7 B. ceti (0.1%). The 2,981 strains from cattle were typed as B. abortus biovars 1, 3, and 6 (90.1%) and B. melitensis biovar 3 (9.9%). The 318 strains from water buffalo were typed as B. abortus biovars 1, 3 (95.9%) and B. melitensis biovar 3 (4.1%). The 2,279 strains from sheep and goats were typed as B. abortus biovars 1 and 3 (4.3%); B. melitensis biovars 1, 3, (95.3%); and B. ovis (0.4%). The 173 strains from wild boar were typed as B. suis biovar 2 (98.3%) and B. melitensis biovar 3 (1.7%). The 11 strains from pigs were typed as B. suis biovar 2. The 13 strains from humans were typed as B. melitensis biovar 3. The two strains from horses were typed as B. abortus biovar 1, while the seven strains from dolphins were typed as B. ceti. This additional knowledge on the epidemiology of brucellosis in Italy may be useful to formulate policies and strategies for the control and eradication of the disease in animal populations. The animal species affected, biovars typed, geographical origins, and spatial distributions of isolates are herein analyzed and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although most countries in the WHO European Region were verified in 2017 as having interrupted endemic measles transmission, nine countries were still endemic. Among these, Italy accounted for the second highest number of measles cases reported in Europe in 2017. The elimination of measles is verified at national level by each country’s National Verification Committee (NVC) through the production of an Annual Status Update (ASU). Since in Italy decentralization has led to an inhomogeneous implementation of immunization strategies among the 21 administrative Regions, the Italian NVC proposed that measles elimination should also be documented at the subnational level through regional ASUs and Synthetic Regional Reports (SRRs). The regional ASUs and the SRRs for 2014, 2015 and 2016 were produced and appraised by the NVC to evaluate the Regions’ performances in each individual year as well as over the whole period. A specific analysis of vaccination coverage, including official immunization data for 2017, was performed. Moreover, the measles epidemic of 2017 was examined. Firstly, in the period 2014–2016, low immunization rates were registered in most Regions. Sixty-three per cent of southern Regions reported rates below the national mean and an overall low-quality performance. The approval of Italy’s mandatory vaccination law in 2017 resulted in a marked increase in vaccination coverage; however, this increase was not homogeneous among Regions. Secondly, more than 50% of Regions did not report any supplemental immunization activity (SIA) for the period 2014–2016. Thirdly, from 2014 to 2016, fewer than one-third of Regions improved their reporting of outbreaks. Finally, over the study period, only two Regions reached the target required by the WHO for measles laboratory investigations. In countries with decentralized health policies, subnational monitoring can help identify local barriers to measles elimination. In Italy it has highlighted the need for further SIAs and a stronger surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply mixed logit regression to investigate patients' choice of non-emergency outpatient cardiovascular specialists in Tuscany, Italy. We focused on the effects of travel time and waiting time. Results reveal that patients prefer clinics nearby and with shorter waiting times. Differences in patient choice depend on age and socioeconomic conditions, thus confirming equity concerns in the access of non-acute services. Our results could be used to optimize the allocation of resources, reduce inequities and increase the efficiency and responsiveness of outpatient systems considering patient preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent outbreak of Chikungunya virus in Italy represents a serious public health concern, which is attracting media coverage and generating public interest in terms of Internet searches and social media interactions. Here, we sought to assess the Chikungunya-related digital behavior and the interplay between epidemiological figures and novel data streams traffic. Reaction to the recent outbreak was analyzed in terms of Google Trends, Google News and Twitter traffic, Wikipedia visits and edits, and PubMed articles, exploiting structural modelling equations. A total of 233,678 page-views and 150 edits on the Italian Wikipedia page, 3,702 tweets, 149 scholarly articles, and 3,073 news articles were retrieved. The relationship between overall Chikungunya cases, as well as autochthonous cases, and tweets production was found to be fully mediated by Chikungunya-related web searches. However, in the allochthonous/imported cases model, tweet production was not found to be significantly mediated by epidemiological figures, with web searches still significantly mediating tweet production. Inconsistent relationships were detected in mediation models involving Wikipedia usage as a mediator variable. Similarly, the effect between news consumption and tweets production was suppressed by the Wikipedia usage. A further inconsistent mediation was found in the case of the effect between Wikipedia usage and tweets production, with web searches as a mediator variable. When adjusting for the Internet penetration index, similar findings could be obtained, with the important exception that in the adjusted model the relationship between GN and Twitter was found to be partially mediated by Wikipedia usage. Furthermore, the link between Wikipedia usage and PubMed/MEDLINE was fully mediated by GN, differently from what was found in the unadjusted model. In conclusion—a significant public reaction to the current Chikungunya outbreak was documented. Health authorities should be aware of this, recognizing the role of new technologies for collecting public concerns and replying to them, disseminating awareness and avoid misleading information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Action on social determinants is a main component of the World Health Organization End Tuberculosis (TB) Strategy. The aim of the study was to collect information on socioeconomic characteristics and biomedical risk factors in migrant TB patients in Italy and compare it with data collected among Italian TB patients. A cross-sectional study was conducted among TB patients aged ≥18 years over a 12-months enrolment period in 12 major Italian hospitals. Information on education, employment, housing and income was collected, and European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions index was used to assess material deprivation. Among migrants, we also analyzed factors associated with severe material deprivation. Migrants were compared with younger (18–64 years) and older (65+ years) Italians patients. Out of 755 patients enrolled (with a median age of 42 years, interquartile range: 31–53), 65% were migrants. Pulmonary, microbiologically confirmed, and new cases were 80%, 73%, and 87% respectively. Prevalence of co-morbidities (i.e. diabetes, chronic kidney disease, neoplastic diseases and use of immunosuppressive drugs) was lower among migrants compared to Italian TB patients, while indicators of socioeconomic status, income and housing conditions were worst in migrants. Forty-six percent of migrants were severely deprived vs. 9% of Italians (p<0.0001, 11.3% and 5.5% among younger and older Italians, respectively). Among migrants, being male, older, irregular, unemployed, with a shorter time spent in Italy, a lower education level, and without a co-morbidity diagnosis were factors associated with severe material deprivation at multi-variable logistic regression. Moreover, socioeconomic indicators for Italian patients did not differ from those reported for the general Italian population, while migrant TB patients seem to have a higher prevalence of severe material deprivation than other migrants residing in Italy. Intervention to address the needs of this population are urgent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hepatitis A virus (HAV) is mainly transmitted through the faecal-oral route. In industrialized countries HAV infection generally occurs as either sporadic cases in travelers from endemic areas, local outbreak within closed/semi-closed population and as foodborne community outbreak. Recently, an increasing number of HAV infection clusters have been reported among young men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). The Lazio Regional Service for the epidemiology and control for infectious diseases (SeRESMI) has noticed an increase of acute hepatitis A (AHA) since September 2016. Temporal analysis carried out with a discrete Poisson model using surveillance data between January 2016 and March 2017 evidenced an ongoing outbreak of AHA that started at the end of August. Molecular investigation carried out on 130 out of 513 cases AHA reported until March 2017 suggests that this outbreak is mainly supported by an HAV variant which is currently spreading within MSM communities across Europe (VRD_521_2016). The report confirms that AHA is an emerging issue among MSM. In addition through the integration of standard (case based) surveillance with molecular investigation we could discriminate, temporally concomitant but epidemiologically unrelated, clusters due to different HAV variants. As suggested by the WHO, in countries with low HAV circulation, vaccination programmes should be tailored on the local epidemiological patterns to prevent outbreaks among high risk groups and eventual spillover of the infection in the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: International migration rapidly increased in the last decade, raising a renewed attention to its impact on public health. We evaluated differences in rubella immunization rate (RIR) between immigrant and Italian women of childbearing age and tried to identify the driving factors causing them. Methods: We analyzed data from the Italian behavioral surveillance system PASSI collected in 2011–2015 in a nationally representative sample of residents in Italy. The analysis was performed using log-binomial models to compare RIR between 41,094 Italian women and 3140 regular immigrant women of childbearing age (18–49 years), stratifying the latter by area of origin and length-of-stay in Italy (recent: ≤ 5-years; mid-term: 6-10-years; long-term: > 10-years). Results: Immigrant women showed a RIR of 36.0% compared to 60.2% among Italian women (RIR-ratio = 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57–0.63). Adjusting for demographic characteristics (i.e., sex, age and area of residence), socio-economic factors (i.e., education, occupation, family composition and economic status) and an indicator of the presence of at least one health-risk behavior (i.e., physical inactivity, current cigarette smoking, excessive alcohol consumption and excess weight) did not significantly change this difference (RIR-ratio = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.53–0.59). Recent immigrants (RIR-ratio = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.42–0.53) and immigrants from high migratory pressure countries (HMPC) in sub-Saharan Africa (RIR-ratio = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.31–0.56) and Asia (RIR-ratio = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.33–0.53) showed the greatest differences in RIR compared with Italian women. Conclusions: Differences in RIR between immigrant and Italian women were not explained by different demographic, socioeconomic and health-risk behaviors characteristics. As entitlement to free-of-charge immunization in Italy is universal, regardless of migration status, other informal barriers (e.g., cultural and barriers to information access) might explain lower RIRs in immigrant women, especially recent immigrants and those from HMPC in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Further investigations are needed to identify obstacles and appropriate promotion and access-enabling strategies for rubella immunization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is a first application of an integrable nonautonomous Lotka–Volterra (LV) model to the study of tourism dynamics. In particular, we analyze the interaction in terms of touristic flows among three Italian regions. Confirming an hypothesis advanced by recent theoretical works, we find that these regions not only compete against each other, but at times they also proceed in mutualism. Moreover, the kind and the intensity of the interaction changes over time, suggesting that dynamic models can play a vital role in the study of touristic flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Italy a nation-wide monitoring network was established in 2009 in response to significant honey bee colony mortality reported during 2008. The network comprised of approximately 100 apiaries located across Italy. Colonies were sampled four times per year, in order to assess the health status and to collect samples for pathogen, chemical and pollen analyses. The prevalence of Nosema ceranae ranged, on average, from 47–69% in 2009 and from 30–60% in 2010, with strong seasonal variation. Virus prevalence was higher in 2010 than in 2009. The most widespread viruses were BQCV, DWV and SBV. The most frequent pesticides in all hive contents were organophosphates and pyrethroids such as coumaphos and tau-fluvalinate. Beeswax was the most frequently contaminated hive product, with 40% of samples positive and 13% having multiple residues, while 27% of bee-bread and 12% of honey bee samples were contaminated. Colony losses in 2009/10 were on average 19%, with no major differences between regions of Italy. In 2009, the presence of DWV in autumn was positively correlated with colony losses. Similarly, hive mortality was higher in BQCV infected colonies in the first and second visits of the year. In 2010, colony losses were significantly related to the presence of pesticides in honey bees during the second sampling period. Honey bee exposure to poisons in spring could have a negative impact at the colony level, contributing to increase colony mortality during the beekeeping season. In both 2009 and 2010, colony mortality rates were positively related to the percentage of agricultural land surrounding apiaries, supporting the importance of land use for honey bee health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Culex pipiens mosquito is a species widely spread across Europe and represents a competent vector for many arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), which has been recently circulating in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases. In order to identify the main determinants of the high heterogeneity in Cx. pipiens abundance observed in Piedmont region (Northwestern Italy) among different seasons, we developed a density-dependent stochastic model that takes explicitly into account the role played by temperature, which affects both developmental and mortality rates of different life stages. The model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach exploring the likelihood of recorded capture data gathered in the study area from 2000 to 2011; in this way, we disentangled the role played by different seasonal eco-climatic factors in shaping the vector abundance. Illustrative simulations have been performed to forecast likely changes if temperature or density–dependent inputs would change. Our analysis suggests that inter-seasonal differences in the mosquito dynamics are largely driven by different temporal patterns of temperature and seasonal-specific larval carrying capacities. Specifically, high temperatures during early spring hasten the onset of the breeding season and increase population abundance in that period, while, high temperatures during the summer can decrease population size by increasing adult mortality. Higher densities of adult mosquitoes are associated with higher larval carrying capacities, which are positively correlated with spring precipitations. Finally, an increase in larval carrying capacity is expected to proportionally increase adult mosquito abundance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Candida parapsilosis group encompasses three species: C. parapsilosis, C. orthopsilosis, and C. metapsilosis. Here, we describe the incidence and echinocandin susceptibility profile of bloodstream isolates of these three species collected from patients admitted to an Italian university hospital from 2007 to 2014. Molecular identification of cryptic species of the C. parapsilosis complex was performed using polymerase chain reaction amplification of the gene encoding secondary alcohol dehydrogenase, followed by digestion with the restriction enzyme BanI. Minimum inhibitory concentrations were determined using the broth microdilution method according to European Committee for Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST EDef 7.2) and Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI M27-A3) guidelines, and the results were compared with those obtained using the E-test and Sensititre methods. Of the 163 C. parapsilosis complex isolates, 136 (83.4%) were identified as C. parapsilosis, and 27 (16.6%) as C. orthopsilosis. The species-specific incidences were 2.9/10,000 admissions for C. parapsilosis and 0.6/10,000 admissions for C. orthopsilosis. No resistance to echinocandins was detected with any of the methods. The percent essential agreement (EA) between the EUCAST and E-test/Sensititre methods for anidulafungin, caspofungin, and micafungin susceptibility was, respectively, as follows: C. parapsilosis, 95.6/97.8, 98.5/88.2, and 93.4/96.3; C. orthopsilosis, 92.6/92.6, 96.3/77.8, and 63.0/66.7. The EA between the CLSI and E-test/Sensititre methods was, respectively, as follows: C. parapsilosis, 99.3/100, 98.5/89.0, and 96.3/98.5; C. orthopsilosis, 96.3/92.6, 100/81.5, and 92.6/88.9. Only minor discrepancies, ranging from 16.9% (C. parapsilosis) to 11.1% (C. orthopsilosis), were observed between the CLSI and E-test/Sensititre methods. In conclusion, this epidemiologic study shows a typical C. parapsilosis complex species distribution, no echinocandin resistance, and it reinforces the relevance of using commercially available microbiological methods to assess antifungal susceptibility. These data improve our knowledge of the national distribution of species of the psilosis group, as there are very few studies of these species in Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]