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China's export benefits from the significant fiscal stimulus in the United States. This paper analyzes the global spillover effect of the American economy on China's macro-economy using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Gibbs sampling approach, with the goal of improving the ability of China's financial system to protect against foreign threats. This paper examines the theories of the consequences of uncertainty on macroeconomics first. Then, using medium-sized economic and financial data, the uncertainty index of the American and Chinese economies is built. In order to complete the test and analysis of the dynamic relationship between American economic uncertainty and China's macro-economy, a Time Varying Parameter-Stochastic Volatility-Vector Autoregression (TVP- VAR) model with random volatility is constructed. The model is estimated using the Gibbs sampling method based on MCMC. For the empirical analysis, samples of China's and the United States' economic data from January 2001 to January 2022 were taken from the WIND database and the FRED database, respectively. The data reveal that there are typically fewer than 5 erroneous components in the most estimated parameters of the MCMC model, which suggests that the model's sampling results are good. China's pricing level reacted to the consequences of the unpredictability of the American economy by steadily declining, reaching its lowest point during the financial crisis in 2009, and then gradually diminishing. After 2012, the greatest probability density range of 68% is extremely wide and contains 0, indicating that the impact of economic uncertainty in the United States on China's pricing level is no longer significant. China should therefore focus on creating a community of destiny by working with nations that have economic cooperation to lower systemic financial risks and guarantee the stability of the capital market., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Jiamu Hu. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Political redistricting is the redrawing of electoral district boundaries. It is normally undertaken to reflect population changes. The process can be abused, in what is called gerrymandering, to favor one party or interest group over another, resulting thereby in broadly undemocratic outcomes that misrepresent the views of the voters. Gerrymandering is especially vexing in the United States. This paper introduces an algorithm, with an implementation, for creating districting plans (whether for political redistricting or for other districting applications). The algorithm, Seed-Fill-Shift-Repair (SFSR), is demonstrated for Congressional redistricting in American states. SFSR is able to create thousands of valid redistricting plans, which may then be used as points of departure for public deliberation regarding how best to redistrict a given polity. The main objectives of this paper are: (i) to present SFSR in a broadly accessible form, including code that implements it and test data, so that it may be used for both civic deliberations by the public and for research purposes. (ii) to make the case for what SFSR essays to do, which is to approach redistricting, and districting generally, from a constraint satisfaction perspective and from the perspective of producing a plurality of feasible solutions that may then serve in subsequent deliberations. To further these goals, we make the code publicly available. The paper presents, for illustration purposes, a corpus of 11,206 valid redistricting plans for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (produced by SFSR), using the 2017 American Community Survey, along with descriptive statistics. Also, the paper presents 1,000 plans for each of the states of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, using the 2018 American Community Survey, along with descriptive statistics on these plans and the computations involved in their creation., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: The Health Resources and Services Administration's (HRSA), HIV/AIDS Bureau (HAB) is responsible for leading the nation's efforts to provide health care, medications, and support services to low-income people living with HIV through the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program (RWHAP). The RWHAP funds and coordinates with cities, states, and local community-based organizations to deliver efficient and effective HIV care, treatment, and support services for over half a million vulnerable people living with HIV (PLWH) and their families in the United States. The annual RWHAP Services Report (RSR) is an important source of information for monitoring RWHAP's progress towards National HIV/AIDS Strategy goals. Since 2010, HRSA HAB has used the annual client-level RSR data to monitor program-related outcomes, conduct program evaluations, understand service provision, and conduct extensive analysis on disparities in viral suppression and retention in HIV care. HRSA HAB receives annual RSR submissions from RWHAP recipients and sub-recipients. However, the de-identified nature of the data limits HRSA HAB's ability to expand beyond year-to-year analyses and conduct additional analyses to evaluate outcomes for clients who are seen in multiple years. The current paper describes the development and validation of a method to link RSR client-level records across multiple data years., Methods and Findings: Using seven RSR reporting years of data (2010 to 2016), we applied a Fellegi-Sunter (F-S) linkage model that used client demographic characteristics and their providers' geographic locations to calculate matching weights for each record pair based on estimated agreement and disagreement conditional probabilities across RSR years. To validate our methodology, we conducted an internal sample review and external validation to assess the level of accuracy of the linkage, and the extent to which the linked data set corresponds accurately to clinical records of individual clients. The linkage result yielded 70 to 80 percent year-to-year client carry-over rate over seven years of the RSR data; 96 percent linkage ratio from the internal sample review and 79.9 to 94.2 percent of provider network client carry- over rate per year from the external validation., Conclusions: This methodology addresses a gap in data analysis capabilities by allowing HRSA HAB to link RWHAP clients across reporting years. Despite weak identifying information and lack of continuity of service reporting, the longitudinal linkage improves HRSA HAB's ability to evaluate the patterns of viral suppression and monitor service utilization over time for individuals who receive services in multiple years. These analyses will support future analytic activities in understanding the impact and outcomes of the RWHAP, and will assist HRSA HAB in monitoring progress toward meeting National HIV/AIDS Strategy goals. For those looking for ways to assess health services data, the F-S unsupervised method combining weak identifying attributes and geographic proximity offers practical solutions to the problem of linking de-identified information about individuals across multiple years and improving longitudinal research., Competing Interests: Co-authors KM, SL and SH are employed by Westat and LS is a former employee of Accenture Federal Systems. This does not alter the authors' adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Constraints arise naturally in many scientific experiments/studies such as in, epidemiology, biology, toxicology, etc. and often researchers ignore such information when analyzing their data and use standard methods such as the analysis of variance (ANOVA). Such methods may not only result in a loss of power and efficiency in costs of experimentation but also may result poor interpretation of the data. In this paper we discuss constrained statistical inference in the context of linear mixed effects models that arise naturally in many applications, such as in repeated measurements designs, familial studies and others. We introduce a novel methodology that is broadly applicable for a variety of constraints on the parameters. Since in many applications sample sizes are small and/or the data are not necessarily normally distributed and furthermore error variances need not be homoscedastic (i.e. heterogeneity in the data) we use an empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) type residual based bootstrap methodology for deriving critical values of the proposed test. Our simulation studies suggest that the proposed procedure maintains the desired nominal Type I error while competing well with other tests in terms of power. We illustrate the proposed methodology by re-analyzing a clinical trial data on blood mercury level. The methodology introduced in this paper can be easily extended to other settings such as nonlinear and generalized regression models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The social functions of urbanized areas are highly dependent on and supported by the convenient access to public transportation systems, particularly for the less privileged populations who have restrained auto ownership. To accurately evaluate the public transit accessibility, it is critical to capture the spatiotemporal variation of transit services. This can be achieved by measuring the shortest paths or minimum travel time between origin-destination (OD) pairs at each time-of-day (e.g. every minute). In recent years, General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data has been gaining popularity for between-station travel time estimation due to its interoperability in spatiotemporal analytics. Many software packages, such as ArcGIS, have developed toolbox to enable the travel time estimation with GTFS. They perform reasonably well in calculating travel time between OD pairs for a specific time-of-day (e.g. 8:00 AM), yet can become computational inefficient and unpractical with the increase of data dimensions (e.g. all times-of-day and large network). In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm that is computationally elegant and mathematically efficient to address this issue. An open-source toolbox written in C++ is developed to implement the algorithm. We implemented the algorithm on City of St. George’s transit network to showcase the accessibility analysis enabled by the toolbox. The experimental evidence shows significant reduction on computational time. The proposed algorithm and toolbox presented is easily transferable to other transit networks to allow transit agencies and researchers perform high resolution transit performance analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the apparent cross-disciplinary interactions among scientific fields, a formal description of their evolution is lacking. Here we describe a novel approach to study the dynamics and evolution of scientific fields using a network-based analysis. We build an idea network consisting of American Physical Society Physics and Astronomy Classification Scheme (PACS) numbers as nodes representing scientific concepts. Two PACS numbers are linked if there exist publications that reference them simultaneously. We locate scientific fields using a community finding algorithm, and describe the time evolution of these fields over the course of 1985-2006. The communities we identify map to known scientific fields, and their age depends on their size and activity. We expect our approach to quantifying the evolution of ideas to be relevant for making predictions about the future of science and thus help to guide its development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When conducting image registration in the U.S. state of Alaska, it is very difficult to locate satisfactory ground control points because ice, snow, and lakes cover much of the ground. However, GCPs can be located by seeking stable points from the extracted lake data. This paper defines a process to estimate the deepest points of lakes as the most stable ground control points for registration. We estimate the deepest point of a lake by computing the center point of the largest inner circle (LIC) of the polygon representing the lake. An LIC-seeking method based on Voronoi diagrams is proposed, and an algorithm based on medial axis simplification (MAS) is introduced. The proposed design also incorporates parallel data computing. A key issue of selecting a policy for partitioning vector data is carefully studied, the selected policy that equalize the algorithm complexity is proved the most optimized policy for vector parallel processing. Using several experimental applications, we conclude that the presented approach accurately estimates the deepest points in Alaskan lakes; furthermore, we gain perfect efficiency using MAS and a policy of algorithm complexity equalization.

Objective: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates a labor-intensive process to measure the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States. Random forests methods have shown promise in speeding up this process, but they lag behind human classification accuracy by about 5%. We explore whether more recently available document classification algorithms can close this gap. Materials and methods: Using data gathered from a single surveillance site, we applied 8 supervised learning algorithms to predict whether children meet the case definition for ASD based solely on the words in their evaluations. We compared the algorithms’ performance across 10 random train-test splits of the data, using classification accuracy, F1 score, and number of positive calls to evaluate their potential use for surveillance. Results: Across the 10 train-test cycles, the random forest and support vector machine with Naive Bayes features (NB-SVM) each achieved slightly more than 87% mean accuracy. The NB-SVM produced significantly more false negatives than false positives (P = 0.027), but the random forest did not, making its prevalence estimates very close to the true prevalence in the data. The best-performing neural network performed similarly to the random forest on both measures. Discussion: The random forest performed as well as more recently available models like the NB-SVM and the neural network, and it also produced good prevalence estimates. NB-SVM may not be a good candidate for use in a fully-automated surveillance workflow due to increased false negatives. More sophisticated algorithms, like hierarchical convolutional neural networks, may not be feasible to train due to characteristics of the data. Current algorithms might perform better if the data are abstracted and processed differently and if they take into account information about the children in addition to their evaluations. Conclusion: Deep learning models performed similarly to traditional machine learning methods at predicting the clinician-assigned case status for CDC’s autism surveillance system. While deep learning methods had limited benefit in this task, they may have applications in other surveillance systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Risk prediction is crucial in many areas of medical practice, such as cardiac transplantation, but existing clinical risk-scoring methods have suboptimal performance. We develop a novel risk prediction algorithm and test its performance on the database of all patients who were registered for cardiac transplantation in the United States during 1985-2015. Methods and findings: We develop a new, interpretable, methodology (ToPs: Trees of Predictors) built on the principle that specific predictive (survival) models should be used for specific clusters within the patient population. ToPs discovers these specific clusters and the specific predictive model that performs best for each cluster. In comparison with existing clinical risk scoring methods and state-of-the-art machine learning methods, our method provides significant improvements in survival predictions, both post- and pre-cardiac transplantation. For instance: in terms of 3-month survival post-transplantation, our method achieves AUC of 0.660; the best clinical risk scoring method (RSS) achieves 0.587. In terms of 3-year survival/mortality predictions post-transplantation (in comparison to RSS), holding specificity at 80.0%, our algorithm correctly predicts survival for 2,442 (14.0%) more patients (of 17,441 who actually survived); holding sensitivity at 80.0%, our algorithm correctly predicts mortality for 694 (13.0%) more patients (of 5,339 who did not survive). ToPs achieves similar improvements for other time horizons and for predictions pre-transplantation. ToPs discovers the most relevant features (covariates), uses available features to best advantage, and can adapt to changes in clinical practice. Conclusions: We show that, in comparison with existing clinical risk-scoring methods and other machine learning methods, ToPs significantly improves survival predictions both post- and pre-cardiac transplantation. ToPs provides a more accurate, personalized approach to survival prediction that can benefit patients, clinicians, and policymakers in making clinical decisions and setting clinical policy. Because survival prediction is widely used in clinical decision-making across diseases and clinical specialties, the implications of our methods are far-reaching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time spent fishing is the effort metric often studied in fisheries but it may under-represent the effort actually expended by fishers. Entire fishing trips, from the time vessels leave port until they return, may prove more useful for examining trends in fleet dynamics, fisher behavior, and fishing costs. However, such trip information is often difficult to resolve. We identified ~30,000 trips made by vessels that targeted walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) in the Eastern Bering Sea from 2008–2014 by using vessel monitoring system (VMS) and landings data. We compared estimated trip durations to observer data, which were available for approximately half of trips. Total days at sea were estimated with < 1.5% error and 96.4% of trip durations were either estimated with < 5% error or they were within expected measurement error. With 99% accuracy, we classified trips as fishing for pollock, for another target species, or not fishing. This accuracy lends strong support to the use of our method with unobserved trips across North Pacific fisheries. With individual trips resolved, we examined potential errors in datasets which are often viewed as “the truth.” Despite having > 5 million VMS records (timestamps and vessel locations), this study was as much about understanding and managing data errors as it was about characterizing trips. Missing VMS records were pervasive and they strongly influenced our approach. To understand implications of missing data on inference, we simulated removal of VMS records from trips. Removal of records straightened (i.e., shortened) vessel trajectories, and travel distances were underestimated, on average, by 1.5–13.4% per trip. Despite this bias, VMS proved robust for trip characterization and for improved quality control of human-recorded data. Our scrutiny of human-reported and VMS data advanced our understanding of the potential utility and challenges facing VMS users globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed linguistics-driven prediction models to estimate the risk of suicide. These models were generated from unstructured clinical notes taken from a national sample of U.S. Veterans Administration (VA) medical records. We created three matched cohorts: veterans who committed suicide, veterans who used mental health services and did not commit suicide, and veterans who did not use mental health services and did not commit suicide during the observation period (n = 70 in each group). From the clinical notes, we generated datasets of single keywords and multi-word phrases, and constructed prediction models using a machine-learning algorithm based on a genetic programming framework. The resulting inference accuracy was consistently 65% or more. Our data therefore suggests that computerized text analytics can be applied to unstructured medical records to estimate the risk of suicide. The resulting system could allow clinicians to potentially screen seemingly healthy patients at the primary care level, and to continuously evaluate the suicide risk among psychiatric patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indo-pacific panther grouper (Chromileptes altiveli) is a predatory fish species and popular imported aquarium fish in the United States which has been recently documented residing in western Atlantic waters. To date, the most successful marine invasive species in the Atlantic is the lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles), which, as for the panther grouper, is assumed to have been introduced to the wild through aquarium releases. However, unlike lionfish, the panther grouper is not yet thought to have an established breeding population in the Atlantic. Using a proven modeling technique developed to track the lionfish invasion, presented is the first known estimation of the potential spread of panther grouper in the Atlantic. The employed cellular automaton-based computer model examines the life history of the subject species including fecundity, mortality, and reproductive potential and combines this with habitat preferences and physical oceanic parameters to forecast the distribution and periodicity of spread of this potential new invasive species. Simulations were examined for origination points within one degree of capture locations of panther grouper from the United States Geological Survey Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database to eliminate introduction location bias, and two detailed case studies were scrutinized. The model indicates three primary locations where settlement is likely given the inputs and limits of the model; Jupiter Florida/Vero Beach, the Cape Hatteras Tropical Limit/Myrtle Beach South Carolina, and Florida Keys/Ten Thousand Islands locations. Of these locations, Jupiter Florida/Vero Beach has the highest settlement rate in the model and is indicated as the area in which the panther grouper is most likely to become established. This insight is valuable if attempts are to be made to halt this potential marine invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Automatic identification of notifiable diseases from electronic medical records can potentially improve the timeliness and completeness of public health surveillance. We describe the development and implementation of an algorithm for prospective surveillance of patients with acute hepatitis B using electronic medical record data. Methods: Initial algorithms were created by adapting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention diagnostic criteria for acute hepatitis B into electronic terms. The algorithms were tested by applying them to ambulatory electronic medical record data spanning 1990 to May 2006. A physician reviewer classified each case identified as acute or chronic infection. Additional criteria were added to algorithms in serial fashion to improve accuracy. The best algorithm was validated by applying it to prospective electronic medical record data from June 2006 through April 2008. Completeness of case capture was assessed by comparison with state health department records. Findings: A final algorithm including a positive hepatitis B specific test, elevated transaminases and bilirubin, absence of prior positive hepatitis B tests, and absence of an ICD9 code for chronic hepatitis B identified 112/113 patients with acute hepatitis B (sensitivity 97.4%, 95% confidence interval 94-100%; specificity 93.8%, 95% confidence interval 87-100%). Application of this algorithm to prospective electronic medical record data identified 8 cases without false positives. These included 4 patients that had not been reported to the health department. There were no known cases of acute hepatitis B missed by the algorithm. Conclusions: An algorithm using codified electronic medical record data can reliably detect acute hepatitis B. The completeness of public health surveillance may be improved by automatically identifying notifiable diseases from electronic medical record data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]