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Air emissions from the U.S. pulp and paper sector have been federally regulated since 1978; however, regulations are periodically reviewed and revised to improve efficiency and effectiveness of existing emission standards. The Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model for the pulp and paper sector is currently under development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and can be utilized to facilitate multi-pollutant, sector-based analyses that are performed in conjunction with regulatory development. The model utilizes a multi-sector, multi-product dynamic linear modeling framework that evaluates the economic impact of emission reduction strategies for multiple air pollutants. The ISIS model considers facility-level economic, environmental, and technical parameters, as well as sector-level market data, to estimate the impacts of environmental regulations on the pulp and paper industry. Specifically, the model can be used to estimate U.S. and global market impacts of new or more stringent air regulations, such as impacts on product price, exports and imports, market demands, capital investment, and mill closures. One major challenge to developing a representative model is the need for an extensive amount of data. This article discusses the collection and processing of data for use in the model, as well as the methods used for building the ISIS pulp and paper database that facilitates the required analyses to support the air quality management of the pulp and paper sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Skin cancer has a significant impact on the lives of many individuals annually and is recognized as the most prevalent type of cancer. In the United States, an estimated annual incidence of approximately 3.5 million people receiving a diagnosis of skin cancer underscores its widespread prevalence. Furthermore, the prognosis for individuals afflicted with advancing stages of skin cancer experiences a substantial decline in survival rates. This paper is dedicated to aiding healthcare experts in distinguishing between benign and malignant skin cancer cases by employing a range of machine learning and deep learning techniques and different feature extractors and feature selectors to enhance the evaluation metrics. In this paper, different transfer learning models are employed as feature extractors, and to enhance the evaluation metrics, a feature selection layer is designed, which includes diverse techniques such as Univariate, Mutual Information, ANOVA, PCA, XGB, Lasso, Random Forest, and Variance. Among transfer models, DenseNet-201 was selected as the primary feature extractor to identify features from data. Subsequently, the Lasso method was applied for feature selection, utilizing diverse machine learning approaches such as MLP, XGB, RF, and NB. To optimize accuracy and precision, ensemble methods were employed to identify and enhance the best-performing models. The study provides accuracy and sensitivity rates of 87.72% and 92.15%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted governments worldwide to implement a range of containment measures, including mass gathering restrictions, social distancing, and school closures. Despite these efforts, vaccines continue to be the safest and most effective means of combating such viruses. Yet, vaccine hesitancy persists, posing a significant public health concern, particularly with the emergence of new COVID-19 variants. To effectively address this issue, timely data is crucial for understanding the various factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy. While previous research has largely relied on traditional surveys for this information, recent sources of data, such as social media, have gained attention. However, the potential of social media data as a reliable proxy for information on population hesitancy, especially when compared with survey data, remains underexplored. This paper aims to bridge this gap. Our approach uses social, demographic, and economic data to predict vaccine hesitancy levels in the ten most populous US metropolitan areas. We employ machine learning algorithms to compare a set of baseline models that contain only these variables with models that incorporate survey data and social media data separately. Our results show that XGBoost algorithm consistently outperforms Random Forest and Linear Regression, with marginal differences between Random Forest and XGBoost. This was especially the case with models that incorporate survey or social media data, thus highlighting the promise of the latter data as a complementary information source. Results also reveal variations in influential variables across the five hesitancy classes, such as age, ethnicity, occupation, and political inclination. Further, the application of models to different MSAs yields mixed results, emphasizing the uniqueness of communities and the need for complementary data approaches. In summary, this study underscores social media data's potential for understanding vaccine hesitancy, emphasizes the importance of tailoring interventions to specific communities, and suggests the value of combining different data sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's export benefits from the significant fiscal stimulus in the United States. This paper analyzes the global spillover effect of the American economy on China's macro-economy using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Gibbs sampling approach, with the goal of improving the ability of China's financial system to protect against foreign threats. This paper examines the theories of the consequences of uncertainty on macroeconomics first. Then, using medium-sized economic and financial data, the uncertainty index of the American and Chinese economies is built. In order to complete the test and analysis of the dynamic relationship between American economic uncertainty and China's macro-economy, a Time Varying Parameter-Stochastic Volatility-Vector Autoregression (TVP- VAR) model with random volatility is constructed. The model is estimated using the Gibbs sampling method based on MCMC. For the empirical analysis, samples of China's and the United States' economic data from January 2001 to January 2022 were taken from the WIND database and the FRED database, respectively. The data reveal that there are typically fewer than 5 erroneous components in the most estimated parameters of the MCMC model, which suggests that the model's sampling results are good. China's pricing level reacted to the consequences of the unpredictability of the American economy by steadily declining, reaching its lowest point during the financial crisis in 2009, and then gradually diminishing. After 2012, the greatest probability density range of 68% is extremely wide and contains 0, indicating that the impact of economic uncertainty in the United States on China's pricing level is no longer significant. China should therefore focus on creating a community of destiny by working with nations that have economic cooperation to lower systemic financial risks and guarantee the stability of the capital market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional sociodemographic disparities in adolescent vaccination initiation for the HPV, Tdap, and MenACWY vaccines have declined in the United States of America. This decline raises the question of whether inequities in access have been successfully addressed. This paper synthesizes research on the resource barriers that inhibit vaccination alongside research on vaccine hesitancy where parents actively refuse vaccination. To do so, I classify the primary reason why teens are unvaccinated in the National Immunization Survey-Teen 2012–2022 into three categories: resource failure, agentic refusal, and other reasons. I use three non-exclusive subsamples of teens who are unvaccinated against the HPV (N = 87,163), MenACWY (N = 54,726), and Tdap (N = 10,947) vaccines to examine the relative importance of resource failure reasons and agentic refusal reasons for non-vaccination across time and teens' sociodemographic characteristics. Results indicate that resource failure reasons continue to explain a substantial portion of the reasons why teens are unvaccinated and disproportionately affect racially/ethnically and economically marginalized teens. Thus, even as sociodemographic inequalities in rates of vaccination have declined, inequities in access remain consequential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The soybean cyst nematode (SCN), Heterodera glycines, is the most damaging pathogen of soybeans in the United States. To assess the severity of nematode infestations in the field, SCN egg population densities are determined. Cysts (dead females) of the nematode must be extracted from soil samples and then ground to extract the eggs within. Sucrose centrifugation commonly is used to separate debris from suspensions of extracted nematode eggs. We present a method using OptiPrep as a density gradient medium with improved separation and recovery of extracted eggs compared to the sucrose centrifugation technique. Also, computerized methods were developed to automate the identification and counting of nematode eggs from the processed samples. In one approach, a high-resolution scanner was used to take static images of extracted eggs and debris on filter papers, and a deep learning network was trained to identify and count the eggs among the debris. In the second approach, a lensless imaging setup was developed using off-the-shelf components, and the processed egg samples were passed through a microfluidic flow chip made from double-sided adhesive tape. Holographic videos were recorded of the passing eggs and debris, and the videos were reconstructed and processed by custom software program to obtain egg counts. The performance of the software programs for egg counting was characterized with SCN-infested soil collected from two farms, and the results using these methods were compared with those obtained through manual counting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Opioid use disorder (OUD) represents a public health crisis in the United States. Medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) with buprenorphine in primary care is a proven OUD treatment strategy. MOUD induction is when patients begin withdrawal and receive the first doses of buprenorphine. Differences between induction methods might influence short-term stabilization, long-term maintenance, and quality of life. This paper describes the protocol for a study designed to: (1) compare short-term stabilization and long-term maintenance treatment engagement in MOUD in patients receiving office, home, or telehealth induction and (2) identify clinically-relevant practice and patient characteristics associated with successful long-term treatment. The study design is a randomized, parallel group, pragmatic comparative effectiveness trial of three care models of MOUD induction in 100 primary care practices in the United States. Eligible patients are at least 16 years old, have been identified by their clinician as having opioid dependence and would benefit from MOUD. Patients will be randomized to one of three induction comparators: office, home, or telehealth induction. Primary outcomes are buprenorphine medication-taking and illicit opioid use at 30, 90, and 270 days post-induction. Secondary outcomes include quality of life and potential mediators of treatment maintenance (intentions, planning, automaticity). Potential moderators include social determinants of health, substance use history and appeal, and executive function. An intent to treat analysis will assess effects of the interventions on long-term treatment, using general/generalized linear mixed models, adjusted for covariates, for the outcomes analysis. Analysis includes practice- and patient-level random effects for hierarchical/longitudinal data. No large-scale, randomized comparative effectiveness research has compared home induction to office or telehealth MOUD induction on long-term outcomes for patients with OUD seen in primary care settings. The results of this study will offer primary care providers evidence and guidance in selecting the most beneficial induction method(s) for specific patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the proven efficacy of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV acquisition, PrEP is underutilized by sexual and gender minority young adults in the 13 states in the United States "South." In this paper, we describe the process we used to develop a digital campaign to promote awareness and engagement of sexual and gender minority young adults in the Louisiana Department of Health's TelePrEP Program and provide campaign performance metrics. In Phase 1, we conducted formative research that informed campaign development and strategy. In total, 109 sexual and gender minority young adults completed a survey of PrEP constructs (e.g., facilitators, barriers). We also conducted three, sequential focus groups to iteratively generate, revise and refine the digital material. In collaboration with our strategic marketing partner (SMP), we developed 3 different ads and 1 video ad to promote on web and mobile-in app display, as well as Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube. Phase 2 focused on campaign implementation and evaluation (e.g., number of impressions, user activities on LA TelePrEP landing page). In the first few weeks of the campaign, data from tracking pixels indicated minimal activities on the landing page. We paused to revamp the campaign. Our SMP determined that a more young adult-focused landing page could bolster engagement. We created a new landing page and reran the campaign for 33 days. We saw substantially more user activities on the new landing page (n = 382) compared to the LA TelePrEP landing page (n = 185). Overall, we had 730,665 impressions and 475 link clicks. By collaborating with our SMP, we effectively and efficiently translated our community-engaged formative research into relevant and engaging digital content. This pilot study is one of the first to demonstrate the importance of using tracking pixels to monitor real-time user data to optimize performance of a digital PrEP campaign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parkinson's disease which is the second most prevalent neurodegenerative disorder in the United States is a serious and complex disease that may progress to mild cognitive impairment and dementia. The early detection of the mild cognitive impairment and the identification of its biomarkers is crucial to support neurologists in monitoring the progression of the disease and allow an early initiation of effective therapeutic treatments that will improve the quality of life for the patients. In this paper, we propose the first deep-learning based approaches to detect mild cognitive impairment in the sleep Electroencephalography for patients with Parkinson's disease and further identify the discriminative features of the disease. The proposed frameworks start by segmenting the sleep Electroencephalography time series into three sleep stages (i.e., two non-rapid eye movement sleep-stages and one rapid eye movement sleep stage), further transforming the segmented signals in the time-frequency domain using the continuous wavelet transform and the variational mode decomposition and finally applying novel convolutional neural networks on the time-frequency representations. The gradient-weighted class activation mapping was also used to visualize the features based on which the proposed deep-learning approaches reached an accurate prediction of mild cognitive impairment in Parkinson's disease. The proposed variational mode decomposition-based model offered a superior accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under curve, and quadratic weighted Kappa score, all above 99% as compared with the continuous wavelet transform-based model (that achieved a performance that is almost above 92%) in differentiating mild cognitive impairment from normal cognition in sleep Electroencephalography for patients with Parkinson's disease. In addition, the features attributed to the mild cognitive impairment in Parkinson's disease were demonstrated by changes in the middle and high frequency variational mode decomposition components across the three sleep-stages. The use of the proposed model on the time-frequency representation of the sleep Electroencephalography signals will provide a promising and precise computer-aided diagnostic tool for detecting mild cognitive impairment and hence, monitoring the progression of Parkinson's disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. Since then, the disease has spread worldwide. As it is currently spreading in the United States, policy makers, public health officials and citizens are racing to understand the impact of this virus on the United States healthcare system. They fear a rapid influx of patients overwhelming the healthcare system and leading to unnecessary fatalities. Most countries and states in America have introduced mitigation strategies, such as using social distancing to decrease the rate of newly infected people. This is what is usually meant by flattening the curve. In this paper, we use queueing theoretic methods to analyze the time evolution of the number of people hospitalized due to the coronavirus. Given that the rate of new infections varies over time as the pandemic evolves, we model the number of coronavirus patients as a dynamical system based on the theory of infinite server queues with time inhomogeneous Poisson arrival rates. With this model we are able to quantify how flattening the curve affects the peak demand for hospital resources. This allows us to characterize how aggressive societal policy needs to be to avoid overwhelming the capacity of healthcare system. We also demonstrate how curve flattening impacts the elapsed lag between the times of the peak rate of hospitalizations and the peak demand for the hospital resources. Finally, we present empirical evidence from Italy and the United States that supports the insights from our model analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many public health situations within the United States that require fine geographical scale data to effectively inform response and intervention strategies. However, a condition for accessing and analyzing such data, especially when multiple institutions are involved, is being able to preserve a degree of spatial privacy and confidentiality. Hospitals and state health departments, who are generally the custodians of these fine-scale health data, are sometimes understandably hesitant to collaborate with each other due to these concerns. This paper looks at the utility and pitfalls of using Zip4 codes, a data layer often included as it is believed to be "safe", as a source for sharing fine-scale spatial health data that enables privacy preservation while maintaining a suitable precision for spatial analysis. While the Zip4 is widely supplied, researchers seldom utilize it. Nor is its spatial characteristics known by data guardians. To address this gap, we use the context of a near-real time spatial response to an emerging health threat to show how the Zip4 aggregation preserves an underlying spatial structure making it potentially suitable dataset for analysis. Our results suggest that based on the density of urbanization, Zip4 centroids are within 150 meters of the real location almost 99% of the time. Spatial analysis experiments performed on these Zip4 data suggest a far more insightful geographic output than if using more commonly used aggregation units such as street lines and census block groups. However, this improvement in analytical output comes at a spatial privy cost as Zip4 centroids have a higher potential of compromising spatial anonymity with 73% of addresses having a spatial k anonymity value less than 5 when compared to other aggregations. We conclude that while offers an exciting opportunity to share data between organizations, researchers and analysts need to be made aware of the potential for serious confidentiality violations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly deadly for residents of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities. This paper analyzes COVID-19 deaths at nursing homes during the first wave of the pandemic in the United States during the spring and early summer 2020. By combining data on facility-level COVID-19 deaths during this period with data on the neighborhoods where nursing home staff reside for a sample of eighteen states, this paper finds that staff neighborhood characteristics were a large and significant predictor of COVID-19 nursing home deaths. Even after controlling for the county where a facility is located, one standard deviation increases in average staff neighborhood (Census tract) population density, public transportation use, and non-white share were associated with 1.3 (p <.001), 1.4 (p <.001), and 0.9 (p <.001) additional deaths per 100 beds, respectively. These effects are larger than all facility management or quality variables, and larger than the effect of the nursing home's own neighborhood characteristics. These results suggest COVID-19 outbreaks in staff communities can have large consequences for the facilities where they work, even in highly-rated facilities, and that disparities in nursing home outbreaks may be related to differences in the types of neighborhoods nursing home staff live in. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over 71 million people are infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) worldwide, and approximately 400,000 global deaths result from complications of untreated chronic HCV. Pan-genomic direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have recently become widely available and feature high cure rates in less than 12 weeks of treatment. The rollout of DAAs is reliant on diagnostic tests for HCV RNA to identify eligible patients with viremic HCV infections. Current PCR-based HCV RNA assays are restricted to well-resourced central laboratories, and there remains a prevailing clinical need for expanded access to decentralized HCV RNA testing to provide rapid chronic HCV diagnosis and linkage to DAAs in outpatient clinics. This paper reports a rapid, highly accurate, and minimally instrumented assay for HCV RNA detection using reverse transcription recombinase polymerase amplification (RT-RPA). The assay detects all HCV genotypes with a limit of detection of 25 copies per reaction for genotype 1, the most prevalent in the United States and worldwide. The clinical sensitivity and specificity of the RT-RPA assay were both 100% when evaluated using 78 diverse clinical serum specimens. The accuracy, short runtime, and low heating demands of RT-RPA may enable implementation in a point-of-care HCV test to expand global access to effective treatment via rapid chronic HCV diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the factors underlying COVID-19 vaccine and booster hesitancy in the United States, and the efficacy of various incentives or disincentives to expand uptake. We use cross-sectional, national survey data on 3,497 U.S. adults collected online from September 10, 2021 to October 20, 2021 through the Qualtrics platform. Results from a multinomial logistic regression reveal that hesitancy and refusal were greatest among those who expressed a lack of trust either in government or in the vaccine's efficacy (hesitancy relative risk ratio, or RRR: 2.86, 95% CI: 2.13–3.83, p<0.001). Hesitancy and refusal were lowest among those who typically get a flu vaccine (hesitancy RRR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.21–0.36, p<0.001; refusal RRR: 0.08, 95% CI: 0.05–0.13, p<0.001). Similar results hold for the intention to get a booster shot among the fully vaccinated. Monetary rewards (i.e., lottery ticket and gift cards) fared poorly in moving people toward vaccination. In contrast, the prospect of job loss or increased health insurance premiums was found to significantly increase vaccine uptake, by 8.7 percentage points (p<0.001) and 9.4 percentage points (p<0.001), respectively. We also show that the motivations underlying individuals' hesitancy or refusal to get vaccinated vary, which, in turn, suggests that messaging must be refined and directed accordingly. Also, moving forward, it may be fruitful to more deeply study the intriguing possibility that expanding flu vaccine uptake may also enhance willingness to vaccinate in times of pandemics. Last, disincentives such as work-based vaccination mandates that would result in job loss or higher health insurance premiums for those who refuse vaccination should be strongly considered to improve vaccine uptake in the effort to address the common good. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented significant public health and economic challenges worldwide. Various health and non-pharmaceutical policies have been adopted by different countries to control the spread of the virus. To shed light on the impact of vaccination and social mobilization policies during this wide-ranging crisis, this paper applies a system dynamics analysis on the effectiveness of these two types of policies on pandemic containment and the economy in the United States. Based on the simulation of different policy scenarios, the findings are expected to help decisions and mitigation efforts throughout this pandemic and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Socio-economic and geographical inequalities in breast cancer mortality have been widely described in European countries and the United States. To investigate the combined effects of geographic access and socio-economic characteristics on breast cancer outcomes, a systematic review was conducted exploring the relationships between: (i) geographic access to healthcare facilities (oncology services, mammography screening), defined as travel time and/or travel distance; (ii) breast cancer-related outcomes (mammography screening, stage of cancer at diagnosis, type of treatment and rate of mortality); (iii) socioeconomic status (SES) at individuals and residential context levels. In total, n = 25 studies (29 relationships tested) were included in our systematic review. The four main results are: The statistical significance of the relationship between geographic access and breast cancer-related outcomes is heterogeneous: 15 were identified as significant and 14 as non-significant. Women with better geographic access to healthcare facilities had a statistically significant fewer mastectomy (n = 4/6) than women with poorer geographic access. The relationship with the stage of the cancer is more balanced (n = 8/17) and the relationship with cancer screening rate is not observed (n = 1/4). The type of measures of geographic access (distance, time or geographical capacity) does not seem to have any influence on the results. For example, studies which compared two different measures (travel distance and travel time) of geographic access obtained similar results. The relationship between SES characteristics and breast cancer-related outcomes is significant for several variables: at individual level, age and health insurance status; at contextual level, poverty rate and deprivation index. Of the 25 papers included in the review, the large majority (n = 24) tested the independent effect of geographic access. Only one study explored the combined effect of geographic access to breast cancer facilities and SES characteristics by developing stratified models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surveys are commonly used to quantify public opinions of climate change and to inform sustainability policies. However, conducting large-scale population-based surveys is often a difficult task due to time and resource constraints. This paper outlines a machine learning framework—grounded in statistical learning theory and natural language processing—to augment climate change opinion surveys with social media data. The proposed framework maps social media discourse to climate opinion surveys, allowing for discerning the regionally distinct topics and themes that contribute to climate opinions. The analysis reveals significant regional variation in the emergent social media topics associated with climate opinions. Furthermore, significant correlation is identified between social media discourse and climate attitude. However, the dependencies between topic discussion and climate opinion are not always intuitive and often require augmenting the analysis with a topic's most frequent n-grams and most representative tweets to effectively interpret the relationship. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion of how these results can be used in the policy framing process to quickly and effectively understand constituents' opinions on critical issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to gauge the global pandemic's impact on social thoughts and behavior, it is important to answer the following questions: (1) What kinds of topics are individuals and groups vocalizing in relation to the pandemic? (2) Are there any noticeable topic trends and if so how do these topics change over time and in response to major events? In this paper, through the advanced Sequential Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, we identified twelve of the most popular topics present in a Twitter dataset collected over the period spanning April 3rd to April 13th, 2020 in the United States and discussed their growth and changes over time. These topics were both robust, in that they covered specific domains, not simply events, and dynamic, in that they were able to change over time in response to rising trends in our dataset. They spanned politics, healthcare, community, and the economy, and experienced macro-level growth over time, while also exhibiting micro-level changes in topic composition. Our approach differentiated itself in both scale and scope to study the emerging topics concerning COVID-19 at a scale that few works have been able to achieve. We contributed to the cross-sectional field of urban studies and big data. Whereas we are optimistic towards the future, we also understand that this is an unprecedented time that will have lasting impacts on individuals and society at large, impacting not only the economy or geo-politics, but human behavior and psychology. Therefore, in more ways than one, this research is just beginning to scratch the surface of what will be a concerted research effort into studying the history and repercussions of COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have witnessed wider prevalence of vertebral column pathologies due to lifestyle changes, sedentary behaviors, or injuries. Spondylolisthesis and scoliosis are two of the most common ailments with an incidence of 5% and 3% in the United States population, respectively. Both of these abnormalities can affect children at a young age and, if left untreated, can progress into severe pain. Moreover, severe scoliosis can even lead to lung and heart problems. Thus, early diagnosis can make it easier to apply remedies/interventions and prevent further disease progression. Current diagnosis methods are based on visual inspection by physicians of radiographs and/or calculation of certain angles (e.g., Cobb angle). Traditional artificial intelligence-based diagnosis systems utilized these parameters to perform automated classification, which enabled fast and easy diagnosis supporting tools. However, they still require the specialists to perform error-prone tedious measurements. To this end, automated measurement tools were proposed based on processing techniques of X-ray images. In this paper, we utilize advances in deep transfer learning to diagnose spondylolisthesis and scoliosis from X-ray images without the need for any measurements. We collected raw data from real X-ray images of 338 subjects (i.e., 188 scoliosis, 79 spondylolisthesis, and 71 healthy). Deep transfer learning models were developed to perform three-class classification as well as pair-wise binary classifications among the three classes. The highest mean accuracy and maximum accuracy for three-class classification was 96.73% and 98.02%, respectively. Regarding pair-wise binary classification, high accuracy values were achieved for most of the models (i.e., > 98%). These results and other performance metrics reflect a robust ability to diagnose the subjects' vertebral column disorders from standard X-ray images. The current study provides a supporting tool that can reasonably help the physicians make the correct early diagnosis with less effort and errors, and reduce the need for surgical interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes aggregate data on trade flows to examine the performance of bilateral free trade agreements (BFTAs) between the United States and 11 BFTA nations in a two-dimensional approach. In line with the literature, this study applies the gravity model and analyzes the effect of the treatment using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) panel data from 1992 to 2017. We use the PPML as an alternative methodology to an ordinary least squares model, as it can treat zero trade values and lead to unbiased estimates and different consistencies. We consider the trade in goods but excluded services because of the different nature of trade for services. Moreover, this study highlights the quantitative performance of BFTAs without considering the industry level to compare the overall benefits for the trade flows from the U.S. as an exporter to BFTA countries and vice versa. It thus adds to the debate on the effect of FTAs on trade flows and conducts pre-FTA and post-FTA analyses to compare the volumes of exports and imports during both periods. Findings vary according to the direction of trade; notably, some trading partners increased their trading volume to 388%. In sum, this paper provides a collective current state assessment to demonstrate the most plausible reasons for the effects of the 11 BFTAs, in addition to informing policymakers on the lessons learned from each BFTA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus pandemic led to a severe economic shock in the United States. This paper uses a unique survey data collected early on in the pandemic to measure economic deprivation among individuals. The Federal Reserve Board fielded a Survey of Household Economics and Decision-making (SHED) in April 2020. This survey is used to compile data on four indicators of economic deprivation, namely: i) Overall financial condition, ii) Loss of employment, iii) Reduction in income and iv) Inability to pay bills in full. Data on these indicators is compiled for each individual and is used in a novel way to construct a set of multidimensional deprivation indices. These indices measure the overlap of deprivations experienced by an individual. Results show that almost 25 percent of the respondents faced hardships in at least two of the four indicators. More than 13 percent of adults reported their inability to pay monthly bills and struggled to make ends meet financially. One in four respondents had lower income compared to income from previous month. The economic shock affected Hispanics in a more profound way. More than 37 percent Hispanics reported hardship in two or more indicators and 8 percent reported hardship in all four indicators. Higher proportion of young adults and those without a college degree suffered multiple hardships. The paper highlights the plight of Americans during the early months of the economic crisis set in motion amid the coronavirus pandemic and sheds light on how economic disparities deepened along racial/ethnic lines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent paper showed that, whereas we expect pain to rise with age due to accumulated injury, physical wear and tear, and disease, the elderly in America report less pain than those in midlife. Further exploration revealed this pattern was confined to the less educated. The authors called this the 'mystery of American pain' since pain appears to rise with age in other countries irrespective of education. Revisiting this issue with the same cross-sectional data we show that what matters in explaining pain through to age 65 is whether one is working or not. The incidence of pain across the life-course is nearly identical for workers in America and elsewhere, but it is greater for non-working Americans than it is for non-workers elsewhere. As in other countries, pain is hump-shaped in age among those Americans out of work but rises a little over the life-course for those in work. Furthermore, these patterns are apparent within educational groups. We show that, if one ascribes age-specific employment rates from other OECD countries to Americans, the age profile of pain in the United States is more similar to that found elsewhere in the OECD. This is because employment rates are lower in the United States than elsewhere between ages 30 and 60: the simulation reduces the pain contribution of these non-workers to overall pain in America, so it looks somewhat similar to pain elsewhere. We conclude that what matters in explaining pain over the life-course is whether one is working or not and once that is accounted for, the patterns are consistent across the United States and the rest of the OECD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Virtual reality (VR) has proven effective in the treatment of specific phobias and trauma particularly when in-vivo exposure therapy might be costly (e.g. fear of flying, combat scenes). Similarly, VR has been associated with improvement of chronic pain and of acute pain during medical procedures. Despite its effectiveness as a healthcare tool, VR technology is not well-integrated into common practice. This qualitative study aims to explore the provider perception of the value of VR and identify barriers to VR implementation among healthcare providers. Methods: A 66-item self-report survey was created to examine application of VR to clinical practice, perceived value of this treatment, ease of learning the technology, billing considerations, and other obstacles. 128 providers (MDs and PhDs) who were located in the United States and had used VR as a therapeutic tool in the past year were identified through research papers, as well as user lists and news articles from VR application websites. Of the 128 providers contacted, 17% (22) completed our online self-report measure. Of these, 13% of respondents (N = 17) completed greater than 75% of the questionnaire and were considered completers. Provider responses were collected over a one-month period and qualitatively analyzed. Results: The majority of providers were from an academic institution (n = 12, 70.6%), and all providers practiced in the outpatient setting. Providers most commonly reported using VR for the treatment of acute pain and/or anxiety related to medical procedures (n = 11, 64.7%), followed by specific phobia (n = 6, 35.3%) and social phobia (n = 6, 35.3%). All providers agreed VR is a valuable tool they would recommend to colleagues. The majority (n = 15, 93.8%) believed VR helped their patients progress in treatment, compared with other methods. Providers cited the ability to individualize treatment (n = 14, 87.5%) and increase patient engagement (n = 15, 93.8%) as main benefits of VR. A minority reported negative feedback from patients about content (n = 4, 25%) or about the technology in general (n = 6, 37.5%), whereas all reported some form of positive feedback. The slight majority (n = 10, 58.8%) of providers did not find transitioning to VR difficult. Of those who did, cost was the most commonly cited barrier (n = 6). Regarding reimbursement, only 17.6% (n = 3) of providers reported the ability to bill for VR sessions. Most providers (n = 15, 88.2%) received training on their VR platform which they found beneficial. Comparing the trained and untrained groups found no significant difference in VR comfort level (p = 0.5058), the value of VR in practice (p = 0.551) or whether providers would recommend VR to others (p = 0.551), though sample sizes were small. Conclusions: In corroboration with previous research, this study demonstrates that VR is well-received by patients and providers, allowing increased patient engagement and treatment individualization. However, associated costs, including an inability to bill for this service, can present a barrier to further implementation. These findings will guide further development of virtual reality as a standardized tool in psychiatry and pain management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crucial question in the governance of infectious disease outbreaks is how to ensure that people continue to adhere to mitigation measures for the longer duration. The present paper examines this question by means of a set of cross-sectional studies conducted in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, in May, June, and July of 2020. Using stratified samples that mimic the demographic characteristics of the U.S. population, it seeks to understand to what extent Americans continued to adhere to social distancing measures in the period after the first lockdown ended. Moreover, it seeks to uncover which variables sustained (or undermined) adherence across this period. For this purpose, we examined a broad range of factors, relating to people's (1) knowledge and understanding of the mitigation measures, (2) perceptions of their costs and benefits, (3) perceptions of legitimacy and procedural justice, (4) personal factors, (5) social environment, and (6) practical circumstances. Our findings reveal that adherence was chiefly shaped by three major factors: respondents adhered more when they (a) had greater practical capacity to adhere, (b) morally agreed more with the measures, and (c) perceived the virus as a more severe health threat. Adherence was shaped to a lesser extent by impulsivity, knowledge of social distancing measures, opportunities for violating, personal costs, and descriptive social norms. The results also reveal, however, that adherence declined across this period, which was partly explained by changes in people's moral alignment, threat perceptions, knowledge, and perceived social norms. These findings show that adherence originates from a broad range of factors that develop dynamically across time. Practically these insights help to improve pandemic governance, as well as contributing theoretically to the study of compliance and the way that rules come to shape behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the net impact (direct and indirect effects) of the pandemic on the United States population in 2020 using three metrics: excess deaths, life expectancy, and total years of life lost. The findings indicate there were 375,235 excess deaths, with 83% attributable to direct, and 17% attributable to indirect effects of COVID-19. The decrease in life expectancy was 1.67 years, translating to a reversion of 14 years in historical life expectancy gains. Total years of life lost in 2020 was 7,362,555 across the USA (73% directly attributable, 27% indirectly attributable to COVID-19), with considerable heterogeneity at the individual state level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the United States non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common form of chronic liver disease, affecting an estimated 80 to 100 million people. It occurs in every age group, but predominantly in people with risk factors such as obesity and type 2 diabetes. NAFLD is marked by fat accumulation in the liver leading to liver inflammation, which may lead to scarring and irreversible damage progressing to cirrhosis and liver failure. In animal models, genetic ablation of the protein G0S2 leads to alleviation of liver damage and insulin resistance in high fat diets. The research presented in this paper aims to aid in rational based drug design for the treatment of NAFLD by providing a pathway for a solution state NMR structure of G0S2. Here we describe the expression of G0S2 in an E. coli system from two different constructs, both of which are confirmed to be functionally active based on the ability to inhibit the activity of Adipose Triglyceride Lipase. In one of the constructs, preliminary NMR spectroscopy measurements show dominant alpha-helical characteristics as well as resonance assignments on the N-terminus of G0S2, allowing for further NMR work with this protein. Additionally, the characterization of G0S2 oligomers are outlined for both constructs, suggesting that G0S2 may defensively exist in a multimeric state to protect and potentially stabilize the small 104 amino acid protein within the cell. This information presented on the structure of G0S2 will further guide future development in the therapy for NAFLD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to "bend the curve" during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies to economic output are between $632.5 billion and $765.0 billion from early March 2020 to August 1, 2020. Relative to private mitigation, output lost due to suppression policies is estimated to be between $214.2 billion and $331.5 billion. The cost estimate is based on the duration of nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, which were enforced between 42 and 65 days. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 are positive and may be substantial. We discuss uncertainty surrounding several parameters and employ alternative methods for valuing mortality benefits, which also suggest that suppression measures had positive net benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Chronic pain affects 50 million Americans and is often treated with non-pharmacologic approaches like physical therapy. Developing a no-show prediction model for individuals seeking physical therapy care for musculoskeletal conditions has several benefits including enhancement of workforce efficiency without growing the existing provider pool, delivering guideline adherent care, and identifying those that may benefit from telehealth. The objective of this paper was to quantify the national prevalence of no-shows for patients seeking physical therapy care and to identify individual and organizational factors predicting whether a patient will be a no-show when seeking physical therapy care. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Commercial provider of physical therapy within the United States with 828 clinics across 26 states. Participants: Adolescent and adult patients (age cutoffs: 14–117 years) seeking non-pharmacological treatment for musculoskeletal conditions from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2017 (n = 542,685). Exclusion criteria were a primary complaint not considered an MSK condition or improbable values for height, weight, or body mass index values. The study included 444,995 individuals. Primary and secondary outcome measures: Prevalence of no-shows for musculoskeletal conditions and predictors of patient no-show. Results: In our population, 73% missed at least 1 appointment for a given physical therapy care episode. Our model had moderate discrimination for no-shows (c-statistic:0.72, all appointments; 0.73, first 7 appointments) and was well calibrated, with predicted and observed no-shows in good agreement. Variables predicting higher no-show rates included insurance type; smoking-status; higher BMI; and more prior cancellations, time between visit and scheduling date, and between current and previous visit. Conclusions: The high prevalence of no-shows when seeking care for musculoskeletal conditions from physical therapists highlights an inefficiency that, unaddressed, could limit delivery of guideline-adherent care that advocates for earlier use of non-pharmacological treatments for musculoskeletal conditions and result in missed opportunities for using telehealth to deliver physical therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest has been growing in regard to increasing the public health workforce and standardizing training to ensure there are competent professionals to support rebuilding and reinforcing the public health infrastructure of the United States. The need for public health leaders was recognized as early as the hookworm control campaign during 1909–1914 when it became apparent that prevention of disease should be distinct from clinical medicine and should be conducted by professionally trained, dedicated full-time public health practitioners. In recent years, research on the public health workforce and on standardizing health workforce education has significantly expanded. A key element of such a workforce is public health leadership, and DrPH programs are the means to provide effective public health education for these future health professionals. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the general trend of DrPH programs from past to present and analyze the common themes and variations of 28 Council on Education for Public Health (CEPH)-accredited DrPH programs in the United States. This research utilized a mixed-methods approach, investigating DrPH education at each school or program to improve our understanding of the current status of DrPH programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why have the effects of COVID-19 been so unevenly geographically distributed in the United States? This paper investigates the role of social capital as a mediating factor for the spread of the virus. Because social capital is associated with greater trust and relationships within a community, it could endow individuals with a greater concern for others, thereby leading to more hygienic practices and social distancing. Using data for over 2,700 US counties, we investigate how social capital explains the level and growth rate of infections. We find that moving a county from the 25th to the 75th percentile of the distribution of social capital would lead to a 18% and 5.7% decline in the cumulative number of infections and deaths, as well as suggestive evidence of a lower spread of the virus. Our results are robust to many demographic characteristics, controls, and alternative measures of social capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial fisheries globally experienced numerous and significant perturbations during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting the livelihoods of millions of fishers worldwide. In the Northeast United States, fishers grappled with low prices and disruptions to export and domestic markets, leaving many tied to the dock, while others found ways to adapt to the changing circumstances brought about by the pandemic. This paper investigates the short-term impacts of the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic (March-June 2020) on commercial fishers in the Northeast U.S. to understand the effects of the pandemic on participation in the fishery and fishers' economic outcomes, using data collected from an online survey of 258 Northeast U.S. commercial fishers. This research also assesses characteristics of those fishers who continued fishing and their adaptive strategies to the changing circumstances. Analysis of survey responses found the majority of fishers continued fishing during the early months of the pandemic, while a significant number had stopped fishing. Nearly all reported a loss of income, largely driven by disruptions of export markets, the loss of restaurant sales, and a resulting decline in seafood prices. Landings data demonstrate that while fishing pressure in 2020 was reduced for some species, it remained on track with previous years for others. Fishers reported engaging in a number of adaptation strategies, including direct sales of seafood, switching species, and supplementing their income with government payments or other sources of income. Many fishers who had stopped fishing indicated plans to return, suggesting refraining from fishing as a short-term adaptation strategy, rather than a plan to permanently stop fishing. Despite economic losses, fishers in the Northeast U.S. demonstrated resilience in the face of the pandemic by continuing to fish and implementing other adaptation strategies rather than switching to other livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the topological properties of the global supply chain network in terms of its degree distribution, clustering coefficient, degree-degree correlation, bow-tie structure, and community structure to test the efficient supply chain propositions proposed by E. J.S. Hearnshaw et al. The global supply chain data in the year 2017 are constructed by collecting various company data from the web site of Standard & Poor's Capital IQ platform. The in- and out-degree distributions are characterized by a power law of the form of γin = 2.42 and γout = 2.11. The clustering coefficient decays 〈C(k)〉∼k-βk with an exponent βk = 0.46. The nodal degree-degree correlations 〈knn(k)〉 indicates the absence of assortativity. The bow-tie structure of giant weakly connected component (GWCC) reveals that the OUT component is the largest and consists 41.1% of all firms. The giant strong connected component (GSCC) is comprised of 16.4% of all firms. We observe that upstream or downstream firms are located a few steps away from the GSCC. Furthermore, we uncover the community structures of the network and characterize them according to their location and industry classification. We observe that the largest community consists of the consumer discretionary sector based mainly in the United States (US). These firms belong to the OUT component in the bow-tie structure of the global supply chain network. Finally, we confirm the validity of Hearnshaw et al.'s efficient supply chain propositions, namely Proposition S1 (short path length), Proposition S2 (power-law degree distribution), Proposition S3 (high clustering coefficient), Proposition S4 ("fit-gets-richer" growth mechanism), Proposition S5 (truncation of power-law degree distribution), and Proposition S7 (community structure with overlapping boundaries) regarding the global supply chain network. While the original propositions S1 just mentioned a short path length, we found the short path from the GSCC to IN and OUT by analyzing the bow-tie structure. Therefore, the short path length in the bow-tie structure is a conceptual addition to the original propositions of Hearnshaw. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Based on single cross-sectional data, prior research finds evidence of “transportation assimilation” among U.S. immigrants: the length of stay in the U.S. is negatively correlated with public transit use. This paper revisits this question by using repeated cross-sectional data, and examines the trend of transportation assimilation over time. Methods and results: Using 1980, 1990, 2000 1% census and 2010 (1%) American Community Survey, I examine the relationship between the length of stay in the U.S. and public transit ridership among immigrants. I first run regressions separately in four data sets: I regress public transit ridership on the length of stay, controlling for other individual and geographic variables. I then compare the magnitudes of the relationship in four regressions. To study how the rate of transportation assimilation changes over time, I pool the data set and regress public transit ridership on the length of stay and its interactions with year dummies to compare the coefficients across surveys. Results confirm the conclusion of transportation assimilation: as the length of stay in the U.S. increases, an immigrant’s public transit use decreases. However, the repeated cross-section analysis suggests the assimilation rate has been decreasing in the past few decades. Conclusions: This paper finds evidence of transportation assimilation: immigrants become less likely to ride public transit as the length of stay in the U.S. increases. The assimilation rate, however, has been decreasing over time. This paper finds that the rate of public transit ridership among new immigrants upon arrival, the geographic distribution of immigrants, and the changing demographics of the U.S. immigrants play roles in affecting the trend of transportation assimilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wolf control to reduce cattle depredation is an important issue to ecology and agriculture in the United States. Two recent papers use the same dataset having wolf population characteristics and cattle depredation, but come to opposing conclusions concerning the link between wolf control and cattle depredation. Our paper aims to resolve this issue by using the same dataset and developing a model based on a causal association that would explain the nature of the relationship between wolf control and cattle depredation. We use the data on wolf population, number of cattle, number of wolves killed and number of cattle killed, from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services Interagency Annual Wolf Reports over the period of 1987–2012. We find a positive link between wolf control and cattle depredation. However, it would be incorrect to infer that wolf control has a positive effect on the number of cattle depredated. We maintain that this link comes from a growing wolf population, which increases cattle depredation, and in turn, causes an increase in the number of wolves killed. While the wolf population is growing, we see both wolf removal and cattle depredation simultaneously grow. It is not until the wolf population growth nears the steady state, that removal of wolves has a sufficient negative effect to reduce or stabilize the number of cattle depredated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To mitigate the movement of non-native organisms with trade, phytosanitary systems have been implemented within and between countries. In some countries such as Cuba, little is known about the within-state plant health system. To facilitate the development of future trade partnership between Cuba and the United States, agencies need to understand the organizational structure and diagnostic capacity of the Cuban Plant Protection System, identify potential synergies between the United States and Cuban systems, and identify steps towards cooperation. This paper fills this critical void by presenting a descriptive analysis of the plant health system in Cuba. Information was integrated from available literature, informal interviews with Cuban experts, and workshops focused on Cuban policies, risk, and potential collaboration attended by Cuban and American experts. We identify the next practical steps in improving cooperation, including building trust and capacity. Mutual understanding of phytosanitary systems will be crucial for the regional economic and environmental stability of a post-embargo United States-Cuban relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As COVID-19 is rapidly unfolding in the United States, it is important to understand how individuals perceive the health and economic risks of the pandemic. In the absence of a readily available medical treatment, any strategy to contain the virus in the US will depend on the behavioral response of US residents. In this paper, we study individual's perceptions on COVID-19 and social distancing during the week of March 10–16, 2020, a week when COVID-19 was officially declared to be a pandemic by WHO and when new infections in the US were more than doubling every three days. Using a nationally representative sample of 5,414 respondents 18+ years of age from the Understanding America Study (UAS), we find that perceptions about COVID-19 health risks and economic consequences in the US population were largely pessimistic and highly variable by age and education. US residents who are young and do not have a college degree perceived a lower risk of getting infected but a higher probability of running out of money than others. Most individuals reported taking some steps to distance themselves from others but important differences emerge by gender and by source of information on COVID-19. Using state and day fixed-effect regressions, we show that perceptions of the health risks closely followed the number of COVID-19 cases in the country, and perceptions of the economic consequences and the prevalence of social distancing were driven upwards by both national and state-level cases. Unless addressed by effective health communication that reaches individuals across all social strata, variations in perceptions about COVID-19 epidemic raise concerns about the ability of the US to implement and sustain the widespread and restrictive policies that are required to curtail the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to understand whether a catastrophic and urgent event, such as the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic, accelerates or reverses trends in international collaboration, especially in and between China and the United States. A review of research articles produced in the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic shows that COVID-19 research had smaller teams and involved fewer nations than pre-COVID-19 coronavirus research. The United States and China were, and continue to be in the pandemic era, at the center of the global network in coronavirus related research, while developing countries are relatively absent from early research activities in the COVID-19 period. Not only are China and the United States at the center of the global network of coronavirus research, but they strengthen their bilateral research relationship during COVID-19, producing more than 4.9% of all global articles together, in contrast to 3.6% before the pandemic. In addition, in the COVID-19 period, joined by the United Kingdom, China and the United States continued their roles as the largest contributors to, and home to the main funders of, coronavirus related research. These findings suggest that the global COVID-19 pandemic shifted the geographic loci of coronavirus research, as well as the structure of scientific teams, narrowing team membership and favoring elite structures. These findings raise further questions over the decisions that scientists face in the formation of teams to maximize a speed, skill trade-off. Policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite being one of the most common measures of development, the Human Development Index [HDI] has been much criticized for its consistency, data requirements, difficulty of interpretation and trade-offs between indicators. The 'Human Life Indicator' [HLI] has been proposed as a 'simple effective means' of measuring development and, more specifically, as a viable alternative to the HDI. Reducing inequalities within countries is a core component of the Sustainable Development Goals; yet sub-national HDIs are subject to the same criticisms as national level indices (potentially more so). Our goal in this paper is to demonstrate 'proof of concept' in terms of the systematic application of the HLI to measure development at the subnational level. Using life tables for the United States of America, we calculate, for the first time, HLIs for each state for the period 1959–2016. This country was chosen for the comparatively long run of available sub-national life tables. We also calculate the extent to which mortality is distributed across the life course—a further measure of inequality and the role of the social determinants of health. The HLI clearly shows how striking regional inequalities exist across the United States. We find that HLI and HDI for the most recent time period are strongly correlated. The analysis demonstrates that HLI represents an effective means of measuring development at the sub-national level. Compared to HDI, HLIs are characterized by simpler calculation and interpretation; fewer data requirements; less measurement error; more consistency over time; and no trade-offs between components. A current challenge of producing sub-national HLIs is the lack of comprehensive civil registration and vital statistics systems in many parts of the Global South from which sub-national life tables can be generated. However, as more and more countries develop these systems the potential to produce HLIs will inevitably increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Americans are increasingly relying on crowdfunding to pay for the costs of healthcare. In medical crowdfunding (MCF), online platforms allow individuals to appeal to social networks to request donations for health and medical needs. Users are often told that success depends on how they organize and share their campaigns to increase social network engagement. However, experts have cautioned that MCF could exacerbate health and social disparities by amplifying the choices (and biases) of the crowd and leveraging these to determine who has access to financial support for healthcare. To date, research on potential axes of disparity in MCF, and their impacts on fundraising outcomes, has been limited. To answer these questions, this paper presents an exploratory cross-sectional study of a randomized sample of 637 MCF campaigns on the popular platform GoFundMe, for which the race, gender, age, and relationships of campaigners and campaign recipients were categorized alongside campaign characteristics and outcomes. Using both descriptive and inferential statistics, the analysis examines race, gender, and age disparities in MCF use, and tests how these are associated with differential campaign outcomes. The results show systemic disparities in MCF use and outcomes: people of color (and black women in particular) are under-represented; there is significant evidence of an additional digital care labor burden on women organizers of campaigns; and marginalized race and gender groups are associated with poorer fundraising outcomes. Outcomes are only minimally associated with campaign characteristics under users' control, such as photos, videos, and updates. These results corroborate widespread concerns with how technology fuels health inequities, and how crowdfunding may be creating an unequal and biased marketplace for those seeking financial support to access healthcare. Further research and better data access are needed to explore these dynamics more deeply and inform policy for this largely unregulated industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spectrophotometers are commonly used to measure the concentrations of a wide variety of analytes in drinking water and other matrixes; however, many laboratories with limited resources cannot afford to buy these very useful instruments. To meet this need, an accurate, precise, and affordable light emitting diode (LED) spectrophotometer was designed and built using best engineering practices and modern circuit design. The cost and performance of this LED spectrophotometer was compared against 4 common commercial spectrophotometers. More specifically, the performance of these spectrophotometers was evaluated from the upper limits of linear range, upper limits of operational range, calibration sensitivities, R2 values, precisions of standards, estimated limits of detection, and percent calibration check standard recoveries for the determinations of iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and fluoride (F−) in drinking water. This evaluation was done in the United States (U.S.) and India. Our LED spectrophotometer costs $63 United States Dollars (USD) for parts. The 4 commercial spectrophotometers ranged in cost from $2,424 to $7,644 USD. There are no practical differences in the upper limits of linear range, upper limits of operational range, R2 values, precisions of standards, and estimated limits of detection for our LED spectrophotometer and the 4 commercial spectrophotometers. For 2 of the 3 analytes, there is a practical difference in the calibration sensitivities our LED spectrophotometer and the 4 commercial spectrophotometers. More specifically, the calibration sensitivities for Mn and F− using our LED spectrophotometer were 65.2% and 67.0% of those using the 4 commercial spectrophotometers, respectively. In conclusion, this paper describes the design, use, and performance of an accurate, precise, and extremely affordable LED spectrophotometer for drinking water and other testing with limited resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While road safety in the United States (U.S.) has been continually improving since the 1970's, there are indications that these improvements are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Strategic Highway Safety Plans (SHSPs) are prepared by States to guide road safety management, however assessing the appropriateness of these plans remains a significant challenge, especially for the future in which they are to be applied. This study developed a new methodology to assess SHSPs from the perspectives of comprehensive system-based safety management and relevant future issues that can be applied before SHSPs are implemented, thereby avoiding long periods after implementation before assessing the appropriateness of the plans. A rating scale was developed and applied to assess 48 U.S. SHSPs against two key criteria: 1. a comprehensive framework for road safety, and 2. the anticipated changing, difficult and unpredictable nature of future transport and its context. The analysis concluded that current SHSPs have good national oversight with several strengths but were weak in some areas of content and did not address future challenges. Improvements are suggested to strengthen the plans’ thoroughness by being consistent with systems theory and practice, as well as ways that these SHSPs can be more resilient to future circumstances. Implementing the recommendations in this paper provides the opportunity to adopt a system-based safety management practice that has been successful in other hazardous industries. Doing so is expected to most efficiently and effectively continue the recent improvements to road safety, which is likely to be increasingly difficult otherwise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There have been growing recommendations to include education in multi-disciplinary interventions targeting chronic pain management. However, effects of this strategy on short- and long-term self-management of chronic pain, remain largely unexplored. Objectives: 1. To provide an updated overview of studies that report on the impact of patient education in multi-disciplinary interventions, on self-management of chronic pain; 2. To explore associations between education and chronic pain self-management techniques; and 3. To identify the format and duration of suitable chronic pain interventions targeted at patient self-management. Methods: Design: Narrative systematic literature review of randomised or controlled study designs. Data Sources: PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, PsycINFO. Participants: Adult patients with chronic pain of any aetiology participating in multi-disciplinary programs that included education. Main outcome measures: Assessments of level of pain, function, quality of life, self-efficacy, self-management, and any other relevant assessments. Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods: PRISMA guidelines, Cochrane Risk of Bias tool, and TIDieR model. Results: Database searching identified 485 potential papers. After removal of duplicates, and irrelevant articles by title and abstract, 120 full-text articles were reviewed and 27 studies were included in this systematic review. Studies were predominantly from the United States (n = 8; 29.6%). Over one hundred outcome measures were identified across all studies, with significant variation also observed in terms of how chronic pain duration was defined, and how education was delivered to participants. Overall, positive benefits of education were reported. Conclusions: Education, as part of multi-disciplinary programs, is likely to improve self-management and self-efficacy in people with chronic pain of any aetiology. Heterogeneity in terms of: chronic pain duration; educational resources; healthcare professionals; and outcome measures, were identified as limitations. Further research, in the form of Randomised Controlled Trials addressing these limitations, is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: The assessment of bone age and skeletal maturity and its comparison to chronological age is an important task in the medical environment for the diagnosis of pediatric endocrinology, orthodontics and orthopedic disorders, and legal environment in what concerns if an individual is a minor or not when there is a lack of documents. Being a time-consuming activity that can be prone to inter- and intra-rater variability, the use of methods which can automate it, like Machine Learning techniques, is of value. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this paper is to present the state of the art evidence, trends and gaps in the research related to bone age assessment studies that make use of Machine Learning techniques. METHOD: A systematic literature review was carried out, starting with the writing of the protocol, followed by searches on three databases: Pubmed, Scopus and Web of Science to identify the relevant evidence related to bone age assessment using Machine Learning techniques. One round of backward snowballing was performed to find additional studies. A quality assessment was performed on the selected studies to check for bias and low quality studies, which were removed. Data was extracted from the included studies to build summary tables. Lastly, a meta-analysis was performed on the performances of the selected studies. RESULTS: 26 studies constituted the final set of included studies. Most of them proposed automatic systems for bone age assessment and investigated methods for bone age assessment based on hand and wrist radiographs. The samples used in the studies were mostly comprehensive or bordered the age of 18, and the data origin was in most of cases from United States and West Europe. Few studies explored ethnic differences. CONCLUSIONS: There is a clear focus of the research on bone age assessment methods based on radiographs whilst other types of medical imaging without radiation exposure (e.g. magnetic resonance imaging) are not much explored in the literature. Also, socioeconomic and other aspects that could influence in bone age were not addressed in the literature. Finally, studies that make use of more than one region of interest for bone age assessment are scarce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing critical global health issues, such as antimicrobial resistance, infectious disease outbreaks, and natural disasters, requires strong coordination and management across sectors. The One Health approach is the integrative effort of multiple sectors working to attain optimal health for people, animals, and the environment, and is increasingly recognized by experts as a means to address complex challenges. However, practical application of the One Health approach has been challenging. The One Health Systems Mapping and Analysis Resource Toolkit (OH-SMART) introduced in this paper was designed using a multistage prototyping process to support systematic improvement in multi-sectoral coordination and collaboration to better address complex health concerns through an operational, stepwise, and practical One Health approach. To date, OH-SMART has been used to strengthen One Health systems in 17 countries and has been deployed to revise emergency response frameworks, improve antimicrobial resistance national action plans and create multi agency infectious disease collaboration protocols. OH-SMART has proven to be user friendly, robust, and capable of fostering multi-sectoral collaboration and complex system-wide problem solving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Paper currency by its very nature is frequently transferred from one person to another and represents an important medium for human contact with—and potential exchange of—microbes. In this pilot study, we swabbed circulating $1 bills obtained from a New York City bank in February (Winter) and June (Summer) 2013 and used shotgun metagenomic sequencing to profile the communities found on their surface. Using basic culture conditions, we also tested whether viable microbes could be recovered from bills. Results: Shotgun metagenomics identified eukaryotes as the most abundant sequences on money, followed by bacteria, viruses and archaea. Eukaryotic assemblages were dominated by human, other metazoan and fungal taxa. The currency investigated harbored a diverse microbial population that was dominated by human skin and oral commensals, including Propionibacterium acnes, Staphylococcus epidermidis and Micrococcus luteus. Other taxa detected not associated with humans included Lactococcus lactis and Streptococcus thermophilus, microbes typically associated with dairy production and fermentation. Culturing results indicated that viable microbes can be isolated from paper currency. Conclusions: We conducted the first metagenomic characterization of the surface of paper money in the United States, establishing a baseline for microbes found on $1 bills circulating in New York City. Our results suggest that money amalgamates DNA from sources inhabiting the human microbiome, food, and other environmental inputs, some of which can be recovered as viable organisms. These monetary communities may be maintained through contact with human skin, and DNA obtained from money may provide a record of human behavior and health. Understanding these microbial profiles is especially relevant to public health as money could potentially mediate interpersonal transfer of microbes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many US biomedical PhD programs receive more applications for admissions than they can accept each year, necessitating a selective admissions process. Typical selection criteria include standardized test scores, undergraduate grade point average, letters of recommendation, a resume and/or personal statement highlighting relevant research or professional experience, and feedback from interviews with training faculty. Admissions decisions are often founded on assumptions that these application components correlate with research success in graduate school, but these assumptions have not been rigorously tested. We sought to determine if any application components were predictive of student productivity measured by first-author student publications and time to degree completion. We collected productivity metrics for graduate students who entered the umbrella first-year biomedical PhD program at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill from 2008–2010 and analyzed components of their admissions applications. We found no correlations of test scores, grades, amount of previous research experience, or faculty interview ratings with high or low productivity among those applicants who were admitted and chose to matriculate at UNC. In contrast, ratings from recommendation letter writers were significantly stronger for students who published multiple first-author papers in graduate school than for those who published no first-author papers during the same timeframe. We conclude that the most commonly used standardized test (the general GRE) is a particularly ineffective predictive tool, but that qualitative assessments by previous mentors are more likely to identify students who will succeed in biomedical graduate research. Based on these results, we conclude that admissions committees should avoid over-reliance on any single component of the application and de-emphasize metrics that are minimally predictive of student productivity. We recommend continual tracking of desired training outcomes combined with retrospective analysis of admissions practices to guide both application requirements and holistic application review. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While basic access to clean water is critical, another important issue is the affordability of water access for people around the globe. Prior international work has highlighted that a large proportion of consumers could not afford water if priced at full cost recovery levels. Given growing concern about affordability issues due to rising water rates, and a comparative lack of work on affordability in the developed world, as compared to the developing world, more work is needed in developed countries to understand the extent of this issue in terms of the number of households and persons impacted. To address this need, this paper assesses potential affordability issues for households in the United States using the U.S. EPA’s 4.5% affordability criteria for combined water and wastewater services. Analytical results from this paper highlight high-risk and at-risk households for water poverty or unaffordable water services. Many of these households are clustered in pockets of water poverty within counties, which is a concern for individual utility providers servicing a large proportion of customers with a financial inability to pay for water services. Results also highlight that while water rates remain comparatively affordable for many U.S. households, this trend will not continue in the future. If water rates rise at projected amounts over the next five years, conservative projections estimate that the percentage of U.S. households who will find water bills unaffordable could triple from 11.9% to 35.6%. This is a concern due to the cascading economic impacts associated with widespread affordability issues; these issues mean that utility providers could have fewer customers over which to spread the large fixed costs of water service. Unaffordable water bills also impact customers for whom water services are affordable via higher water rates to recover the costs of services that go unpaid by lower income households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lung cancer, primarily non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), is the leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States and worldwide. While early detection significantly improves five-year survival, there are no reliable diagnostic tools for early detection. Several exosomal microRNAs (miRs) are overexpressed in NSCLC, and have been suggested as potential biomarkers for early detection. The present paper develops a mathematical model for early stage of NSCLC with emphasis on the role of the three highest overexpressed miRs, namely miR-21, miR-205 and miR-155. Simulations of the model provide quantitative relationships between the tumor volume and the total mass of each of the above miRs in the tumor. Because of the positive correlation between these miRs in the tumor tissue and in the blood, the results of the paper may be viewed as a first step toward establishing a combination of miRs 21, 205, 155 and possibly other miRs as serum biomarkers for early detection of NSCLC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer around the world, and it represents the main cause of death in the USA. Surgical treatment is the optimal therapeutic strategy for resectable non-small cell lung cancer. The principal factor for long-term survival after complete resection is the anatomic extension of the neoplasm. However, other factors also have adverse effects on operative mortality, and influence long-term outcome. In this paper we propose an algorithmic solution for the estimation of 5-years survival rate in lung cancer patients undertaking pulmonary resection. Materials and methods: We address the issue of survival analysis through decision-making techniques based on fuzzy and soft set theories. We develop an expert system based on clinical and functional data of lung cancer resections in patients with cancer that can be used to predict the survival of patients. Results: The evaluation of surgical risk in patients undertaking pulmonary resection is a primary target for thoracic surgeons. Lung cancer survival is influenced by many factors. The computational performance of our algorithm is critically analyzed by an experimental study. The correct survival classification is achieved with an accuracy of 79.0%. Our novel soft-set based criterion is an effective and precise diagnosis application for the determination of the survival rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]