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Increasing economic integration and global synchronization can be key for countries aiming to catch up in GDP per capita terms. Little attention has hitherto been placed in synchronization as determinant of convergence. In this paper we estimate the effect of economic globalization and synchronization on income convergence for a sample of 89 developed and developing countries in the period 1970–2015. We use a dynamic factor model and panel data techniques to undertake the objectives of the paper. We show that synchronized countries (those correlated with the factor) exhibit a higher response on GDP per capita growth with variations on the global business cycle. This implies that synchronization improves growth for that group in global expansionary phases, but also implies risks during global recessions. On the contrary, the effect on growth of an economic globalization index is less relevant for synchronized countries than for asynchronized countries. The latter result implies that asynchronized countries can benefit more increasing their levels of economic globalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deeply investigating the relationship between governance, financial development, and outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) is beneficial to formulating effective policies to accelerate Chinese firms' pace of overseas expansion. Based on the theoretical mechanism analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of Asian governance and financial development on China's OFDI using the panel data of 37 Asian countries from 2003 to 2017. The results show that the host country governance has a negative and statistically significant impact on China's direct investment in Asia. The conclusion remains valid even after overcoming the interference of endogenous and economic cycle fluctuations. Moreover, using the mediating effect model, we find that financial development is an important channel through which host country governance affects China's OFDI. In further discussion, the findings suggest that with the scale of OFDI expanding, the role of governance takes an inverted "U" shape, and the "Belt and Road" initiative (BRI) weakens the negative impact of governance quality on China's OFDI. Furthermore, governance has shown more remarkable restraint on China's OFDI in neighboring, coastal, and low-income countries in the heterogeneity test. ​From the perspective of host country governance, this paper provides more specific guidance to formulate China's direct investment policy in Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the GDP constant 2010 US$ from the World Bank, this paper uses the instantaneous quasi-correlation coefficient to measure the business cycle synchronization linkages among 53 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies from 2000 to 2019, and empirically studies the topological characteristics of the Business Cycle Synchronization Network (BCSN) with the help of complex network analysis method. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the BCSN density and efficiency of BRI economies are still low, and it presents a topological feature of "small world". Second, the individual characteristics of the economies in the network are obviously different. Among them, China's relative influence is significantly increased, but its betweenness centrality level is still low. Third, since the inception of BRI, the topological characteristics of BCSN of BRI economies have undergone great changes, and their topological evolution has gradually reflected the characteristic of self-stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What impact did the Roman Climate Optimum (RCO) and the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) have on the rise and fall of the Roman Empire? Our article presents an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach developed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the profitability of vineyards, olive groves, and grain farms in Southern Gaul, which were the main source of wealth in the roman period. This ABM simulates an agroecosystem model which processes potential agricultural yield values from paleoclimatic data. The model calculates the revenues made by agricultural exploitations from the sale of crops whose annual volumes vary according to climate and market prices. The potential profits made by the different agricultural exploitations are calculated by deducting from the income the operating and transportation costs. We conclude that the warm and wet climate of the Roman period may have had an extremely beneficial effect on the profitability of wine and olive farms between the 2nd century BCE and the 3rd century CE, but a more modest effect on grain production. Subsequently, there is a significant decrease in the potential profitability of farms during the Late Antique Little Ice Age (4th-7th century CE). Comparing the results of our model with archaeological data enables us to discuss the impact of these climatic fluctuations on the agricultural and economic growth, and then their subsequent recession in Southern Gaul from the beginning to the end of antiquity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The income gap between regions and its expansion are the main manifestations of the imbalanced and inadequate economic development in China. High-speed railway (HSR) construction is regarded as an important method to drive domestic demand, drive the pulse of the economy, and promote the coordinated development of regions. Based on the opening of HSR and the acceleration of ordinary railways, we used the weighted average travel time model and accessibility coefficient to estimate the changes on accessibility in 286 cities at prefecture-level and above from 2000 to 2018. Then, the influence mechanisms of improving regional accessibility on urban residents' income were estimated by using the bidirectional-fixed effects panel model and the recursive model respectively. We found that: (1) The accessibility of urban areas has been greatly improved due to the opening of HSR and the acceleration of ordinary railway, among which the improvement of HSR cities is greater. (2) The improvement of regional accessibility significantly promoted the income growth of urban residents, and the increase of the regional accessibility coefficient by 1 unit led to an average increase of 2140 yuan in the per capita disposable income of urban residents. (3) There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of improving regional accessibility on urban residents' income, and it has a significant effect on the eastern and northeastern regions. It has a greater positive effect on improving the income of residents in central cities compared with peripheral cities. (4) Regional accessibility can promote urban income growth through regional employment and fixed asset investment. In the future, the transportation network should be further improved to facilitate the regional economic cycle, strengthen the coordination and complementarity of regional economies, and promote regional economic integration so as to promote the improvement of resident income level and the common prosperity of the people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examining the spread of macroeconomic phenomena between countries has become increasingly popular after the 2008 economic crisis, but the recent COVID-19 pandemic rendered this issue much more relevant as it shed more light on the risks arising from strongly interconnected economies. This paper intends to extend previous studies in this line by examining the relationship between trade openness and business cycle synchronization. It extends the scope of previous analyses in three areas. First, we use a Granger-causality approach to identify synchronization. Second, trade is broken down to the sector level and third, we distinguish between upstream and downstream connections. These developments allow for a directed approach in the analysis. We use conditional logit regressions to estimate the effect of trade openness on the probability of shock-transmission. The results presented in this study contribute to the literature in two ways. First, in addition to revealing a positive effect of aggregate two-way trade on shock-contagion, it also points out that this overall effect hides diverse behavior in specific trading sectors as well as upstream and downstream channels. Second, while some sectors are not significant channels of shock-transmission in either directions, upstream channels seem to be important in agriculture while downstream channels dominate machinery and other manufactures. Also, there are sectors (chemicals and related products) trade in which affects shock-transmission negatively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public sector employment in China has exhibited pronounced non-cyclical characteristics, with a recruiting scale and wage level showing limited responsiveness to economic fluctuations. The allure of civil service jobs in China has seen a significant resurgence post-COVID-19, with an observable increase in demand among educated job seekers for stable government positions amid growing economic uncertainties. This study investigates the implications of public sector employment rigidity on macroeconomic stability using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model integrated with search and matching (S&M) theory. Simulations incorporating alternative government job policies reveal that non-cyclical public employment exacerbates macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations. The low elasticity of public sector wages with respect to corporate wages fosters stable expectations among workers regarding the future value of government jobs, increasing the perceived value of the current state of unemployment. This leads job seekers to voluntarily remain unemployed, reducing labor supply to firms. Meantime, it preserves workers' bargaining power with firms, reinforcing wage stickiness and undermining the stabilizing role of price adjustments in employment. Hypothetical scenario analyses indicate that adopting a pro-cyclical wage policy for the public sector can mitigate the obstacles of wage cuts for firms, stimulate the creation of new jobs during economic downturns, and consequently reduce the magnitude and duration of rising unemployment rates. In contrast, maintaining a non-cyclical public sector wage may not prevent a continuous rise in unemployment or a worsening economic situation, even with expanded sector recruitment. This finding holds significant relevance in the context of the post-COVID era characterized by an economic slump and employment tension, providing theoretical support for establishing a transparent and flexible wage adjustment mechanism in the public sector that is linked to market conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study focuses on the fluctuation of sentiment in economic terminology to observe semantic changes in restricted diachrony. Our study examines the evolution of the target term 'inflation' in the business section of quality news and the impact of the Great Recession. This is carried out through the application of quantitative and qualitative methods: Sentiment Analysis, Usage Fluctuation Analysis, Corpus Linguistics, and Discourse Analysis. From the diachronic Great Recession News Corpus that covers the 2007–2015 period, we extracted sentences containing the term 'inflation'. Several facts are evidenced: (i) terms become event words given the increase in their frequency of use due to the unfolding of relevant crisis events, and (ii) there are statistically significant culturally motivated changes in the form of emergent collocations with sentiment-laden words with a lower level of domain-specificity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on measuring the fluctuations in countries' development as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The obtained measures make it possible to predict the extent of the impact of risks to public health on the economy, financial-budgetary, political-institutional development of states in the future, as well as the social determinants of public health. This assessment represents a new paradigm that makes it possible to effectively evaluate the manifestations of the consequences of COVID-19 and to identify the relevant determinants of the lack of resilience of the medical and social security systems to the coronavirus pandemic around the world. We picked the determinant of national development indicators of the 59 countries in order to measure the fluctuations in their economic development. In addition, we applied the binary response model for identifying the economic, financial-budgetary, and political-institutional development change with the happiness index of the countries being the dependent variable. The analysis of our empirical model made it possible for us to conclude that economic and financial-budgetary components have significantly increased the influence on well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, we observed the decrease in the impact of political and institutional indicators during the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In globalization's era, the sustainability of a region is inseparable from the in-depth and close economic and trade cooperation of intra-regional countries to achieve complementary advantages, intra-regional and extra-regional positive economic cycles, and stable and balanced benefits distribution. For Asia-Pacific countries, the lack of deep cooperation in the past has affected their sustainability, but this can be made up for by the RCEP agreement aimed at achieving intra-regional trade liberalization. We adopt the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) simulation analysis method to quantitatively analyze the impact of changes in macroeconomic and international trade indicators of several intra-regional countries after implementing the RCEP tariff reduction and exemption on the RCEP. Simulation results and comparative analysis based on international relations prove that despite the interference of trade benefits conflicts and international political factors, the RCEP can still exist in long term, and effectively promote regional economic integration and sustainability in the Asia-Pacific region. It is also a development opportunity for intra-regional countries and can also be used in the context of globalization providing references for integration and sustainability in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate liquidity spillovers among industry sectors in the S&P 500 index to explain the interconnection dynamics in the US stock market. To do so, we define a sectoral liquidity measure based on the Amihud liquidity measure. Employing the spillover model, we further examine US sectors' liquidity spillovers during the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the relationship between liquidity in financial markets and business cycles, our findings show that (i) liquidity connections became stronger during both crises, (ii) in the GFC period, the material sector was the primary transmitter of total liquidity spillovers, whereas in the COVID-19 pandemic period, the consumer discretionary sector was the main conveyor of total liquidity spillovers and the real estate sector was the dominant recipient of total liquidity spillovers, and (iii) net liquidity spillovers between all sectors fluctuated notably during the GFC, while the industrial, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors had the largest net liquidity spillovers during the COVID-19 crisis. These findings have important implications for portfolio managers and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following boom-and-bust economic cycles provoked by Brazilian governmental attempts to integrate Indigenous peoples into national society, it is approximately since the beginning of the 2000s that Brazilian Indigenous peoples came to be viewed officially as "poor" and victims of "hunger." Consequently, the national indigenist agency and other State entities started to conceive and implement diverse initiatives that ultimately injected money and resources into Indigenous communities. In 2019 we undertook an ethnographic study in three A'uwẽ (Xavante) communities in the Pimentel Barbosa Indigenous Reserve, Central Brazil, with the objective of analyzing how people understand and pursue food security. We propose that in the studied communities the complex network of A'uwẽ food reciprocity is a fundamental strategy for mitigating hunger and acute lack of food. We show that among the A'uwẽ, the hybrid economy that developed since the 1970s has proved resilient to dramatic transformations and uncertainty in the availability and characteristics of external government inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]