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Many complex physical systems exhibit a rich variety of discrete behavioural modes. Often, the system complexity limits the applicability of standard modelling tools. Hence, understanding the underlying physics of different behaviours and distinguishing between them is challenging. Although traditional machine learning techniques could predict and classify behaviour well, typically they do not provide any meaningful insight into the underlying physics of the system. In this paper we present a novel method for extracting physically meaningful clusters of discrete behaviour from limited experimental observations. This method obtains a set of physically plausible functions that both facilitate behavioural clustering and aid in system understanding. We demonstrate the approach on the V-shaped falling paper system, a new falling paper type system that exhibits four distinct behavioural modes depending on a few morphological parameters. Using just 49 experimental observations, the method discovered a set of candidate functions that distinguish behaviours with an error of 2.04%, while also aiding insight into the physical phenomena driving each behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between phenotypic plasticity, e.g. learning, and evolution is an important topic both in Evolutionary Biology and Machine Learning. The evolution of learning is commonly studied in Evolutionary Biology, while the use of an evolutionary process to improve learning is of interest to the field of Machine Learning. This paper takes a different point of view by studying the effect of learning on the evolutionary process, the so-called Baldwin effect. A well-studied result in the literature about the Baldwin effect is that learning affects the speed of convergence of the evolutionary process towards some genetic configuration, which corresponds to the environment-induced plastic response. This paper demonstrates that learning can change the outcome of evolution, i.e., lead to a genetic configuration that does not correspond to the plastic response. Results are obtained both analytically and experimentally by means of an agent-based model of a foraging task, in an environment where the distribution of resources follows seasonal cycles and the foraging success on different resource types is conditioned by trade-offs that can be evolved and learned. This paper attempts to answer a question that has been overlooked: whether learning has an effect on what genotypic traits are evolved, i.e. the selection of a trait that enables a plastic response changes the selection pressure on a different trait, in what could be described as co-evolution between different traits in the same genome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In practical research, it was found that most people made health-related decisions not based on numerical data but on perceptions. Examples include the perceptions and their corresponding linguistic values of health risks such as, smoking, syringe sharing, eating energy-dense food, drinking sugar-sweetened beverages etc. For the sake of understanding the mechanisms that affect the implementations of health-related interventions, we employ fuzzy variables to quantify linguistic variable in healthcare modeling where we employ an integrated system dynamics and agent-based model. Methodology: In a nonlinear causal-driven simulation environment driven by feedback loops, we mathematically demonstrate how interventions at an aggregate level affect the dynamics of linguistic variables that are captured by fuzzy agents and how interactions among fuzzy agents, at the same time, affect the formation of different clusters(groups) that are targeted by specific interventions. Results: In this paper, we provide an innovative framework to capture multi-stage fuzzy uncertainties manifested among interacting heterogeneous agents (individuals) and intervention decisions that affect homogeneous agents (groups of individuals) in a hybrid model that combines an agent-based simulation model (ABM) and a system dynamics models (SDM). Having built the platform to incorporate high-dimension data in a hybrid ABM/SDM model, this paper demonstrates how one can obtain the state variable behaviors in the SDM and the corresponding values of linguistic variables in the ABM. Conclusions: This research provides a way to incorporate high-dimension data in a hybrid ABM/SDM model. This research not only enriches the application of fuzzy set theory by capturing the dynamics of variables associated with interacting fuzzy agents that lead to aggregate behaviors but also informs implementation research by enabling the incorporation of linguistic variables at both individual and institutional levels, which makes unstructured linguistic data meaningful and quantifiable in a simulation environment. This research can help practitioners and decision makers to gain better understanding on the dynamics and complexities of precision intervention in healthcare. It can aid the improvement of the optimal allocation of resources for targeted group (s) and the achievement of maximum utility. As this technology becomes more mature, one can design policy flight simulators by which policy/intervention designers can test a variety of assumptions when they evaluate different alternatives interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In political campaigns, perceived candidate credibility influences the persuasiveness of messages. In campaigns aiming to influence people’s beliefs, micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) that target specific voters using their psychological profile have become increasingly prevalent. It remains open how effective MTCs are, notably in comparison to population-targeted campaign strategies. Using an agent-based model, the paper applies recent insights from cognitive models of persuasion, extending them to the societal level in a novel framework for exploring political campaigning. The paper provides an initial treatment of the complex dynamics of population level political campaigning in a psychologically informed manner. Model simulations show that MTCs can take advantage of the psychology of the electorate by targeting voters favourable disposed towards the candidate. Relative to broad campaigning, MTCs allow for efficient and adaptive management of complex campaigns. Findings show that disliked MTC candidates can beat liked population-targeting candidates, pointing to societal questions concerning campaign regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pruning is applied in order to combat over-fitting problem where the tree is pruned back with the goal of identifying decision tree with the lowest error rate on previously unobserved instances, breaking ties in favour of smaller trees with high accuracy. In this paper, pruning with Bayes minimum risk is introduced for estimating the risk-rate. This method proceeds in a bottom-up fashion converting a parent node of a subtree to a leaf node if the estimated risk-rate of the parent node for that subtree is less than the risk-rates of its leaf. This paper proposes a post-pruning method that considers various evaluation standards such as attribute selection, accuracy, tree complexity, and time taken to prune the tree, precision/recall scores, TP/FN rates and area under ROC. The experimental results show that the proposed method produces better classification accuracy and its complexity is not much different than the complexities of reduced-error pruning and minimum-error pruning approaches. The experiments also demonstrate that the proposed method shows satisfactory performance in terms of precision score, recall score, TP rate, FP rate and area under ROC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Slope one is a popular recommendation algorithm due to its simplicity and high efficiency for sparse data. However, it often suffers from under-fitting since the global information of all relevant users/items are considered. In this paper, we propose a new scheme called enhanced slope one recommendation through local information embedding. First, we employ clustering algorithms to obtain the user clusters as well as item clusters to represent local information. Second, we predict ratings using the local information of users and items in the same cluster. The local information can detect strong localized associations shared within clusters. Third, we design different fusion approaches based on the local information embedding. In this way, both under-fitting and over-fitting problems are alleviated. Experiment results on the real datasets show that our approaches defeats slope one in terms of both mean absolute error and root mean square error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analyses of large volumes of metagenomic data extracted from aggregate populations of microscopic organisms residing on and in the human body are advancing contemporary understandings of the integrated participation of microbes in human health and disease. Next generation sequencing technology facilitates said analyses in terms of diversity, community composition, and differential abundance by filtering and binning microbial 16S rRNA genes extracted from human tissues into operational taxonomic units. However, current statistical tools restrict study designs to investigations of limited numbers of host characteristics mediated by limited numbers of samples potentially yielding a loss of relevant information. This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial model as an efficient technique capable of compensating for multivariable sets including tens or hundreds of host characteristics as covariates further expanding analyses of human microbiome count data. Simulation studies reveal that the Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial model provides a desirable strategy by often outperforming three competing negative binomial model in terms of type I error while simultaneously maintaining consistent power. An application of the Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial model using subsets of the open data published by the American Gut Project demonstrates an ability to identify operational taxonomic units significantly differentiable among persons diagnosed by a medical professional with either inflammatory bowel disease or irritable bowel syndrome that are consistent with contemporary gastrointestinal literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a human action recognition method using HOIRM (histogram of oriented interest region motion) feature fusion and a BOW (bag of words) model based on AP (affinity propagation) clustering. First, a HOIRM feature extraction method based on spatiotemporal interest points ROI is proposed. HOIRM can be regarded as a middle-level feature between local and global features. Then, HOIRM is fused with 3D HOG and 3D HOF local features using a cumulative histogram. The method further improves the robustness of local features to camera view angle and distance variations in complex scenes, which in turn improves the correct rate of action recognition. Finally, a BOW model based on AP clustering is proposed and applied to action classification. It obtains the appropriate visual dictionary capacity and achieves better clustering effect for the joint description of a variety of features. The experimental results demonstrate that by using the fused features with the proposed BOW model, the average recognition rate is 95.75% in the KTH database, and 88.25% in the UCF database, which are both higher than those by using only 3D HOG+3D HOF or HOIRM features. Moreover, the average recognition rate achieved by the proposed method in the two databases is higher than that obtained by other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

DIBR-3D technology has evolved over the past few years with the demands of consumers increasing in recent times for future free-view 3D videos on their home televisions. The main issue in 3D technology is the lack of 3D content available to watch using the traditional TV systems. Although, some sophisticated devices like stereoscopic cameras have been used to fill the gap between the 3D content demand and 3D content supply. But the content generated through these sophisticated devices can not be displayed on the traditional TV systems, so there needs to be some mechanism which is inline with the traditional TV. Furthermore, the huge collection of existing 2D content should be converted to 3D using depth image-based rendering techniques. This conversion technique can highly contribute in overcoming the shortage problem of the 3D content. This paper presents a novel approach for converting 2D degraded image for DIBR 3D-TV view. This degraded or noisy/blur image is enhanced through image dehazing and Directional Filter Bank (DFB). This enhancement is necessary because of the occlusion effect or hole filling problem that occurs due to imperfect depth map. The enhanced image is then segmented into the foreground image and the background image. After the segmentation, the depth map is generated using image profiles. Moreover, Stereoscopic images are finally produced using the DIBR procedure which is based on the 2D input image and the corresponding depth map. We have verified the results of the proposed approach by comparing the results with the existing state-of-the-art techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperament and Psychological Types can be defined as innate psychological characteristics associated with how we relate with the world, and often influence our study and career choices. Furthermore, understanding these features help us manage conflicts, develop leadership, improve teaching and many other skills. Assigning temperament and psychological types is usually made by filling specific questionnaires. However, it is possible to identify temperamental characteristics from a linguistic and behavioral analysis of social media data from a user. Thus, machine-learning algorithms can be used to learn from a user’s social media data and infer his/her behavioral type. This paper initially provides a brief historical review of theories on temperament and then brings a survey of research aimed at predicting temperament and psychological types from social media data. It follows with the proposal of a framework to predict temperament and psychological types from a linguistic and behavioral analysis of Twitter data. The proposed framework infers temperament types following the David Keirsey’s model, and psychological types based on the MBTI model. Various data modelling and classifiers are used. The results showed that Random Forests with the LIWC technique can predict with 96.46% of accuracy the Artisan temperament, 92.19% the Guardian temperament, 78.68% the Idealist, and 83.82% the Rational temperament. The MBTI results also showed that Random Forests achieved a better performance with an accuracy of 82.05% for the E/I pair, 88.38% for the S/N pair, 80.57% for the T/F pair, and 78.26% for the J/P pair. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The understanding of human mobility patterns in different transportation modes is an interdisciplinary research field with a direct impact in aspects as varied as urban planning, traffic optimization, sustainability, the reduction of operating costs as well as the mitigation of pollution in urban areas. In this paper, we study the global activity of users in bike-sharing systems operating in the cities of Chicago and New York. For this transportation mode, we explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of the mobility of cyclists. In particular, through the analysis of origin-destination matrices, we characterize the spatial structure of the displacements of users. We apply a mobility model for the global activity of the system that classifies the displacements between stations in local and non-local transitions. In local transitions, cyclists move in a region around each station whereas, in the non-local case, bike users travel with long-range displacements in a similar way to Lévy flights. We reproduce the spatial dynamics by using Monte Carlo simulations. The obtained results are similar to the observed in real data and reveal that the model implemented captures important characteristics of the global spatial dynamics in the systems analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a novel unequal error protection (UEP) technique is proposed for video streaming over multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) systems. Based on the concept of hierarchical quadrature amplitude modulation (HQAM) UEP and multi-antenna UEP, the proposed technique combines the relative protection levels (PLs) of constellation symbols and the differentiated PLs of the transmit antennas. In the proposed technique, standard square quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) constellations are used instead of HQAM so that the QAM mapper at the transmitter side and the soft decision calculation at the receiver side remain unchanged, but the UEP benefit of HQAM is retained. The superior performance of the proposed technique is explained by the improved connections between data with various priorities and data paths with various PLs. The assumed video compression method is H.264/AVC, which is known to be commercially successful. The IEEE802.16m system is adopted as a data transmission system. With the aid of realistic simulations in strict accordance with the standards of IEEE802.16m systems and H.264/AVC video compression systems, the proposed technique HQAM-multi-antenna UEP is shown to improve the video quality significantly for a given average bit error rate when compared with previous techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within this paper we explore the idea of a critical value representing the proportion of majority members within a group that affects dramatic changes in influence targets’ conformity. We consider the threshold q-voter model when the responses of the Willis-Nail model, a well-established two-dimensional model of social response, are used as a foundation. Specifically, we study a generalized threshold q-voter model when all basic types of social response described by Willis-Nail model are considered, i.e. conformity, anticonformity, independence, and uniformity/congruence. These responses occur in our model with complementary probabilities. We introduce independently two thresholds: one needed for conformity, as well as a second one for anticonformity. In the case of conformity, at least r individuals among q neighbors have to share the same opinion in order to persuade a voter to follow majority’s opinion, whereas in the case of anticonformity, at least w individuals among q neighbors have to share the same opinion in order to influence voters to take an opinion that goes against that of their own reference group. We solve the model on a complete graph and show that the threshold for conformity significantly influences the results. For example, there is a critical threshold for conformity above which the system behaves as in the case of unanimity, i.e. displays continuous and discontinuous phase transitions. On the other hand, the threshold for anticonformity is almost irrelevant. We discuss our results from the perspective of theories of social psychology, as well as the philosophy of agent-based modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Certificateless aggregate signature (CLAS) is a crucial cryptosystem. It can not only compress multiple signatures into a short signature, but also ensure the validity of each signature participating in the aggregation by verifying the validity of an resulting aggregate signature. Therefore, a secure and efficient CLAS scheme is very useful for resource-constrained environments because it greatly reduces the overall length of the signature and the verifier’s computational overhead. Cheng et al. presented an efficient CLAS scheme and proved its security in the random oracle model. However, we find that their scheme has security flaws. In this paper, we demonstrate that Cheng et al.’s CLAS scheme is vulnerable to coalition attacks from internal signers. To overcome these attacks, we present an improved CLAS scheme and prove that it is existentially unforgeable under the computational Diffie-Hellman assumption. In addition, our CLAS scheme can not only resist coalition attacks but also generate a very short aggregate signature. The performance analysis results show that our improved CLAS scheme is lower than the related CLAS schemes in terms of communication overhead and computation cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modelling of deceptions in game theory and decision theory has not been well studied, despite the increasing importance of this problem in social media, public discourse, and organisational management. This paper presents an improved formulation of the extant information-theoretic models of deceptions, a framework for incorporating these models of deception into game and decision theoretic models of deception, and applies these models and this framework in an agent based evolutionary simulation that models two very common deception types employed in “fake news” attacks. The simulation results for both deception types modelled show, as observed empirically in many social systems subjected to “fake news” attacks, that even a very small population of deceivers that transiently invades a much larger population of non-deceiving agents can strongly alter the equilibrium behaviour of the population in favour of agents playing an always defect strategy. The results also show that the ability of a population of deceivers to establish itself or remain present in a population is highly sensitive to the cost of the deception, as this cost reduces the fitness of deceiving agents when competing against non-deceiving agents. Diffusion behaviours observed for agents exploiting the deception producing false beliefs are very close to empirically observed behaviours in social media, when fitted to epidemiological models. We thus demonstrate, using the improved formulation of the information-theoretic models of deception, that agent based evolutionary simulations employing the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma can accurately capture the behaviours of a population subject to deception attacks introducing uncertainty and false perceptions, and show that information-theoretic models of deception have practical applications beyond trivial taxonomical analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to establish a framework for analyzing infrastructure dynamics affecting the long-term steady state, and hence resilience in civil infrastructure systems. To this end, a multi-agent simulation model was created to capture important phenomena affecting the dynamics of coupled human-infrastructure systems and model the long-term performance regimes of infrastructure. The proposed framework captures the following three factors that shape the dynamics of coupled human-infrastructure systems: (i) engineered physical infrastructure; (ii) human actors; and (iii) chronic and acute stressors. A complex system approach was adopted to examine the long-term resilience of infrastructure based on the understanding of performance regimes, as well as tipping points at which shifts in the performance regime of infrastructure occur under the impact of external stressors and/or change in internal dynamics. The application of the proposed framework is demonstrated in a case of urban water distribution infrastructure using the data from a numerical case study network. The developed multi-agent simulation model was then used in examining the system resilience over a 100-year horizon under stressors such as population change and funding constraints. The results identified the effects of internal dynamics and external stressors on the resilience landscape of infrastructure systems. Furthermore, the results also showed the capability of the framework in capturing and simulating the underlying mechanisms affecting human-infrastructure dynamics, as well as long-term regime shifts and tipping point behaviors. Therefore, the integrated framework proposed in this paper enables building complex system-based theories for a more advanced understanding of civil infrastructure resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous mixture interpretation methods that employ probabilistic genotyping to compute the Likelihood Ratio (LR) utilize more information than threshold-based systems. The continuous interpretation schemes described in the literature, however, do not all use the same underlying probabilistic model and standards outlining which probabilistic models may or may not be implemented into casework do not exist; thus, it is the individual forensic laboratory or expert that decides which model and corresponding software program to implement. For countries, such as the United States, with an adversarial legal system, one can envision a scenario where two probabilistic models are used to present the weight of evidence, and two LRs are presented by two experts. Conversely, if no independent review of the evidence is requested, one expert using one model may present one LR as there is no standard or guideline requiring the uncertainty in the LR estimate be presented. The choice of model determines the underlying probability calculation, and changes to it can result in non-negligible differences in the reported LR or corresponding verbal categorization presented to the trier-of-fact. In this paper, we study the impact of model differences on the LR and on the corresponding verbal expression computed using four variants of a continuous mixture interpretation method. The four models were tested five times each on 101, 1-, 2- and 3-person experimental samples with known contributors. For each sample, LRs were computed using the known contributor as the person of interest. In all four models, intra-model variability increased with an increase in the number of contributors and with a decrease in the contributor’s template mass. Inter-model variability in the associated verbal expression of the LR was observed in 32 of the 195 LRs used for comparison. Moreover, in 11 of these profiles there was a change from LR > 1 to LR < 1. These results indicate that modifications to existing continuous models do have the potential to significantly impact the final statistic, justifying the continuation of broad-based, large-scale, independent studies to quantify the limits of reliability and variability of existing forensically relevant systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about the interplay between affective and cognitive processes of decision making within the bounded rationality perspective, in particular for the debate on adaptive decision making and strategy selection. This gap in the knowledge is particularly important as affect and deliberation may direct preferences in opposite directions. How do decision makers solve such dissonance? In this paper, we address this question by exploring the use of integral affect as a choice heuristic in comparison with and in conjunction to “take the best,” and weighted addition of attributes (WADD). We operationalize theories of reliance on affect in choice through a "Take the emotionally best" algorithm. Its predictive power is experimentally tested against other models, including mixed-sequential cognitive/affective procedures. We find that individual decisions are better predicted by a sequential combination of "Take the emotionally best" and "Take the best" with a slight dominance of the former. Conditions of cognitive/affective ambivalence, low discrimination ability and high complexity provide the cognitive architecture where such blended choice strategies predict decisions more precisely. This implies that reliance on integral affect may precede the use of cognitive cues following an ecological rationality perspective rather than supporting a kind of competition between affect and cognition as implied in current literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accuracy and diversity of recommendation algorithms have always been the research hotspot of recommender systems. A good recommender system should not only have high accuracy and diversity, but also have adequate robustness against spammer attacks. However, the issue of recommendation robustness has received relatively little attention in the literature. In this paper, we systematically study the influences of different spammer behaviors on the recommendation results in various recommendation algorithms. We further propose an improved algorithm by incorporating the inner-similarity of user’s purchased items in the classic KNN approach. The new algorithm effectively enhances the robustness against spammer attacks and thus outperforms traditional algorithms in recommendation accuracy and diversity when spammers exist in the online commercial systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the population-level effects of an infectious disease intervention that incorporate multiple modes of intervention is complicated by the joint non-linear dynamics of both infection transmission and the intervention itself. In this paper, we consider the sensitivity of Dynamic Optimal Control Profiles (DOCPs) for the optimal joint investment in both a contagiousness and susceptibility-based control of HIV to bio-behavioral, economic, and programmatic assumptions. The DOCP is calculated using recently developed numerical algorithms that allow controls to be represented by a set of piecewise constant functions that maintain a constant yearly budget. Our transmission model assumes multiple stages of HIV infection corresponding to acute and chronic infection and both within- and between-individual behavioral heterogeneity. We parameterize a baseline scenario from a longitudinal study of sexual behavior in MSM and consider sensitivity of the DOCPs to deviations from that baseline scenario. In the baseline scenario, the primary determinant of the dominant control were programmatic factors, regardless of budget. In sensitivity analyses, the qualitative aspects of the optimal control policy were often robust to significant deviation in assumptions regarding transmission dynamics. In addition, we found several conditions in which long-term joint investment in both interventions was optimal. Our results suggest that modeling in the service of decision support for intervention design can improve population-level effects of a limited set of economic resources. We found that economic and programmatic factors were as important as the inherent transmission dynamics in determining population-level intervention effects. Given our finding that the DOCPs were robust to alternative biological and behavioral assumptions it may be possible to identify DOCPs even when the data are not sufficient to identify a transmission model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the effect of preferential gathering sites on urban insurgency in an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model was proposed in earlier work and has been validated using FBI data. There is a nonlinear tradeoff between the local density of citizens due to the number of preferential gathering sites and the ability of law enforcement officers (LEOs) to adequately patrol that leads to a non-monotonic behavior in the number of large scale outburst of insurgency with respect to the number of gathering sites. The inclusion of a moderate number of sites decreases the number of large-scale outbursts. Having no gathering sites or a large number of gathering sites has a dilutive effect on the number of large-scale outbursts. Thus, this non-monotonicity indicates that a small number of organized units produces a larger insurgency effect than a larger number of distributed units. It is also shown, using Koopman mode analysis, that the spatial morphology of agents due to the gathering sites gives rise to temporal organization of the model dynamics; there is a prominent quasi-periodic component in the number of active and intimidated citizens and in the spatial distribution of the LEOs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cooperative spectrum sensing (CSS) is envisaged as a powerful approach to improve the utilization of scarce radio spectrum resources, but it is threatened by Byzantine attack. Byzantine attack has been becoming a popular research topic in both academia and industry due to the demanding requirements of security. Extensive research mainly aims at mitigating the negative effect of Byzantine attack on CSS, but with some strong assumptions, such as attackers are in minority or trusted node(s) exist for data fusion, while paying little attention to a mobile scenario. This paper focuses on the issue of designing a general and reliable reference for CSS in a mobile network. Instead of the previously simplified attack, we develop a generic Byzantine attack model from sophisticated behaviors to conduct various attack strategies and derive the condition of which Byzantine attack makes the fusion center (FC) blind. Specifically, we propose a robust sequential CSS (SCSS) against dynamic Byzantine attack. Our proposed method solves the unreliability of the FC by means of delivery-based assessment to check consistency of individual sensing report, and innovatively reuses the sensing information from Byzantines via a novel weight allocation mechanism. Furthermore, trust value (TrV) ranking is exploited to proceed with a sequential test which generates a more accurate decision about the presence of phenomenon with fewer samples. Lastly, we carry out simulations on comparison of existing data fusion technologies and SCSS under dynamic Byzantine attack, and results verify the theoretical analysis and effectiveness of our proposed approach. We also conduct numerical analyses to demonstrate explicit impacts of secondary user (SU) density and mobility on the performance of SCSS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Revocation functionality and hierarchy key delegation are two necessary and crucial requirements to identity-based cryptosystems. Revocable hierarchical identity-based encryption (RHIBE) has attracted a lot of attention in recent years, many RHIBE schemes have been proposed but shown to be either insecure or bounded where they have to fix the maximum hierarchical depth of RHIBE at setup. In this paper, we propose a new unbounded RHIBE scheme with decryption key exposure resilience and with short public system parameters, and prove our RHIBE scheme to be adaptively secure. Our system model is scalable inherently to accommodate more levels of user adaptively with no adding workload or restarting the system. By carefully designing the hybrid games, we overcome the subtle obstacle in applying the dual system encryption methodology for the unbounded and revocable HIBE. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first construction of adaptively secure unbounded RHIBE scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biometric recognition technology based on eye-movement dynamics has been in development for more than ten years. Different visual tasks, feature extraction and feature recognition methods are proposed to improve the performance of eye movement biometric system. However, the correct identification and verification rates, especially in long-term experiments, as well as the effects of visual tasks and eye trackers’ temporal and spatial resolution are still the foremost considerations in eye movement biometrics. With a focus on these issues, we proposed a new visual searching task for eye movement data collection and a new class of eye movement features for biometric recognition. In order to demonstrate the improvement of this visual searching task being used in eye movement biometrics, three other eye movement feature extraction methods were also tested on our eye movement datasets. Compared with the original results, all three methods yielded better results as expected. In addition, the biometric performance of these four feature extraction methods was also compared using the equal error rate (EER) and Rank-1 identification rate (Rank-1 IR), and the texture features introduced in this paper were ultimately shown to offer some advantages with regard to long-term stability and robustness over time and spatial precision. Finally, the results of different combinations of these methods with a score-level fusion method indicated that multi-biometric methods perform better in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro-blogging systems have become one of the most important ways for information sharing. Network structure and users’ interactions such as forwarding behaviors have aroused considerable research attention, while mention, as a key feature in micro-blogging platforms which can improve the visibility of a message and direct it to a particular user beyond the underlying social structure, is seldom studied in previous works. In this paper, we empirically study the mention effect in information diffusion, using the dataset from a population-scale social media website. We find that users with high number of followers would receive much more mentions than others. We further investigate the effect of mention in information diffusion by examining the response probability with respect to the number of mentions in a message and observe a saturation at around 5 mentions. Furthermore, we find that the response probability is the highest when a reciprocal followship exists between users, and one is more likely to receive a target user’s response if they have similar social status. To illustrate these findings, we propose the response prediction task and formulate it as a binary classification problem. Extensive evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of discovered factors. Our results have consequences for the understanding of human dynamics on the social network, and potential implications for viral marketing and public opinion monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Security is considered a major challenge for self-driving and semi self-driving vehicles. These vehicles depend heavily on communications to predict and sense their external environment used in their motion. They use a type of ad hoc network termed Vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). Unfortunately, VANETs are potentially exposed to many attacks on network and application level. This paper, proposes a new intrusion detection system to protect the communication system of self-driving cars; utilising a combination of hierarchical models based on clusters and log parameters. This security system is designed to detect Sybil and Wormhole attacks in highway usage scenarios. It is based on clusters, utilising Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) to overcome some of the obstacles of VANETs such as high density, high mobility and bandwidth limitations in exchanging messages. This makes the security system more efficient, accurate and capable of real time detection and quick in identification of malicious behaviour in VANETs. In this scheme, each vehicle log calculates and stores different parameter values after receiving the cooperative awareness messages from nearby vehicles. The vehicles exchange their log data and determine the difference between the parameters, which is utilised to detect Sybil attacks and Wormhole attacks. In order to realize efficient and effective intrusion detection system, we use the well-known network simulator (ns-2) to verify the performance of the security system. Simulation results indicate that the security system can achieve high detection rates and effectively detect anomalies with low rate of false alarms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates a framework of processes for identifying potential witnesses of events from evidence they post to social media. The research defines original evidence models for micro-blog content sources, the relative uncertainty of different evidence types, and models for testing evidence by combination. Methods to filter and extract evidence using automated and semi-automated means are demonstrated using a Twitter case study event. Further, an implementation to test extracted evidence using Dempster Shafer Theory of Evidence are presented. The results indicate that the inclusion of evidence from micro-blog text and linked image content can increase the number of micro-bloggers identified at events, in comparison to the number of micro-bloggers identified from geotags alone. Additionally, the number of micro-bloggers that can be tested for evidence corroboration or conflict, is increased by incorporating evidence identified in their posting history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies a multi-item dynamic lot size problem for perishable products where stock deterioration rates and inventory costs are age-dependent. We explore structural properties in an optimal solution under two cost structures and develop a dynamic programming algorithm to solve the problem in polynomial time when the number of products is fixed. We establish forecast horizon results that can help the operation manager to decide the precise forecast horizon in a rolling decision-making process. Finally, based on a detailed test bed of instance, we obtain useful managerial insights on the impact of deterioration rate and lifetime of products on the length of forecast horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an age when people are predisposed to report real-world events through their social media accounts, many researchers value the benefits of mining user generated content from social media. Compared with the traditional news media, social media services, such as Twitter, can provide more complete and timely information about the real-world events. However events are often like a puzzle and in order to solve the puzzle/understand the event, we must identify all the sub-events or pieces. Existing Twitter event monitoring systems for sub-event detection and summarization currently typically analyse events based on partial data as conventional data collection methodologies are unable to collect comprehensive event data. This results in existing systems often being unable to report sub-events in real-time and often in completely missing sub-events or pieces in the broader event puzzle. This paper proposes a Sub-event detection by real-TIme Microblog monitoring (STRIM) framework that leverages the temporal feature of an expanded set of news-worthy event content. In order to more comprehensively and accurately identify sub-events this framework first proposes the use of adaptive microblog crawling. Our adaptive microblog crawler is capable of increasing the coverage of events while minimizing the amount of non-relevant content. We then propose a stream division methodology that can be accomplished in real time so that the temporal features of the expanded event streams can be analysed by a burst detection algorithm. In the final steps of the framework, the content features are extracted from each divided stream and recombined to provide a final summarization of the sub-events. The proposed framework is evaluated against traditional event detection using event recall and event precision metrics. Results show that improving the quality and coverage of event contents contribute to better event detection by identifying additional valid sub-events. The novel combination of our proposed adaptive crawler and our stream division/recombination technique provides significant gains in event recall (44.44%) and event precision (9.57%). The addition of these sub-events or pieces, allows us to get closer to solving the event puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Code-based cryptography is one of few alternatives supposed to be secure in a post-quantum world. Meanwhile, identity-based identification and signature (IBI/IBS) schemes are two of the most fundamental cryptographic primitives, so several code-based IBI/IBS schemes have been proposed. However, with increasingly profound researches on coding theory, the security reduction and efficiency of such schemes have been invalidated and challenged. In this paper, we construct provably secure IBI/IBS schemes from code assumptions against impersonation under active and concurrent attacks through a provably secure code-based signature technique proposed by Preetha, Vasant and Rangan (PVR signature), and a security enhancement Or-proof technique. We also present the parallel-PVR technique to decrease parameter values while maintaining the standard security level. Compared to other code-based IBI/IBS schemes, our schemes achieve not only preferable public parameter size, private key size, communication cost and signature length due to better parameter choices, but also provably secure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how information flow properties of a network affect the formation of categories shared between individuals, who are communicating through that network. Our work is based on the established multi-agent model of the emergence of linguistic categories grounded in external environment. We study how network information propagation efficiency and the direction of information flow affect categorization by performing simulations with idealized network topologies optimizing certain network centrality measures. We measure dynamic social adaptation when either network topology or environment is subject to change during the experiment, and the system has to adapt to new conditions. We find that both decentralized network topology efficient in information propagation and the presence of central authority (information flow from the center to peripheries) are beneficial for the formation of global agreement between agents. Systems with central authority cope well with network topology change, but are less robust in the case of environment change. These findings help to understand which network properties affect processes of social adaptation. They are important to inform the debate on the advantages and disadvantages of centralized systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a novel robotic system developed for researching collective social mechanisms in a biohybrid society of robots and honeybees. The potential for distributed coordination, as observed in nature in many different animal species, has caused an increased interest in collective behaviour research in recent years because of its applicability to a broad spectrum of technical systems requiring robust multi-agent control. One of the main problems is understanding the mechanisms driving the emergence of collective behaviour of social animals. With the aim of deepening the knowledge in this field, we have designed a multi-robot system capable of interacting with honeybees within an experimental arena. The final product, stationary autonomous robot units, designed by specificaly considering the physical, sensorimotor and behavioral characteristics of the honeybees (lat. Apis mallifera), are equipped with sensing, actuating, computation, and communication capabilities that enable the measurement of relevant environmental states, such as honeybee presence, and adequate response to the measurements by generating heat, vibration and airflow. The coordination among robots in the developed system is established using distributed controllers. The cooperation between the two different types of collective systems is realized by means of a consensus algorithm, enabling the honeybees and the robots to achieve a common objective. Presented results, obtained within ASSISIbf project, show successful cooperation indicating its potential for future applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the demand for performance improvement and the existence of prior information, semi-supervised community detection with pairwise constraints becomes a hot topic. Most existing methods have been successfully encoding the must-link constraints, but neglect the opposite ones, i.e., the cannot-link constraints, which can force the exclusion between nodes. In this paper, we are interested in understanding the role of cannot-link constraints and effectively encoding pairwise constraints. Towards these goals, we define an integral generative process jointly considering the network topology, must-link and cannot-link constraints. We propose to characterize this process as a Multi-variance Mixed Gaussian Generative (MMGG) Model to address diverse degrees of confidences that exist in network topology and pairwise constraints and formulate it as a weighted nonnegative matrix factorization problem. The experiments on artificial and real-world networks not only illustrate the superiority of our proposed MMGG, but also, most importantly, reveal the roles of pairwise constraints. That is, though the must-link is more important than cannot-link when either of them is available, both must-link and cannot-link are equally important when both of them are available. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on discovering and exploring the importance of cannot-link constraints in semi-supervised community detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community detection is an important tasks across a number of research fields including social science, biology, and physics. In the real world, topology information alone is often inadequate to accurately find out community structure due to its sparsity and noise. The potential useful prior information such as pairwise constraints which contain must-link and cannot-link constraints can be obtained from domain knowledge in many applications. Thus, combining network topology with prior information to improve the community detection accuracy is promising. Previous methods mainly utilize the must-link constraints while cannot make full use of cannot-link constraints. In this paper, we propose a semi-supervised community detection framework which can effectively incorporate two types of pairwise constraints into the detection process. Particularly, must-link and cannot-link constraints are represented as positive and negative links, and we encode them by adding different graph regularization terms to penalize closeness of the nodes. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets show that the proposed framework significantly improves the accuracy of community detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) is widely used for finding the documents whose semantic is similar to the query of keywords. Although LSA yield promising similar results, the existing LSA algorithms involve lots of unnecessary operations in similarity computation and candidate check during on-line query processing, which is expensive in terms of time cost and cannot efficiently response the query request especially when the dataset becomes large. In this paper, we study the efficiency problem of on-line query processing for LSA towards efficiently searching the similar documents to a given query. We rewrite the similarity equation of LSA combined with an intermediate value called partial similarity that is stored in a designed index called partial index. For reducing the searching space, we give an approximate form of similarity equation, and then develop an efficient algorithm for building partial index, which skips the partial similarities lower than a given threshold θ. Based on partial index, we develop an efficient algorithm called ILSA for supporting fast on-line query processing. The given query is transformed into a pseudo document vector, and the similarities between query and candidate documents are computed by accumulating the partial similarities obtained from the index nodes corresponds to non-zero entries in the pseudo document vector. Compared to the LSA algorithm, ILSA reduces the time cost of on-line query processing by pruning the candidate documents that are not promising and skipping the operations that make little contribution to similarity scores. Extensive experiments through comparison with LSA have been done, which demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Game theory based methods designed to solve the problem of community structure detection in complex networks have emerged in recent years as an alternative to classical and optimization based approaches. The Mixed Nash Extremal Optimization uses a generative relation for the characterization of Nash equilibria to identify the community structure of a network by converting the problem into a non-cooperative game. This paper proposes a method to enhance this algorithm by reducing the number of payoff function evaluations. Numerical experiments performed on synthetic and real-world networks show that this approach is efficient, with results better or just as good as other state-of-the-art methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the appetite for the investment and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in RFID companies is growing rapidly. Although the huge number of papers have addressed the topic of business valuation models based on statistical methods or neural network methods, only a few are dedicated to constructing a general framework for business valuation that improves the performance with network graph (NG) and the corresponding community mining (CM) method. In this study, an NG based business valuation model is proposed, where real options approach (ROA) integrating CM method is designed to predict the company’s net profit as well as estimate the company value. Three improvements are made in the proposed valuation model: Firstly, our model figures out the credibility of the node belonging to each community and clusters the network according to the evolutionary Bayesian method. Secondly, the improved bacterial foraging optimization algorithm (IBFOA) is adopted to calculate the optimized Bayesian posterior probability function. Finally, in IBFOA, bi-objective method is used to assess the accuracy of prediction, and these two objectives are combined into one objective function using a new Pareto boundary method. The proposed method returns lower forecasting error than 10 well-known forecasting models on 3 different time interval valuing tasks for the real-life simulation of RFID companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small-scale fisheries (SSFs) in developing countries are expected to play a significant role in poverty alleviation and enhancing food security in the decades to come. To realize this expectation, a better understanding of their informal self-governance arrangements is critical for developing policies that can improve fishers’ livelihoods and lead to sustainable ecosystem stewardship. The goal of this paper is to develop a more nuanced understanding of micro-level factors—such as fishers’ characteristics and behavior—to explain observed differences in self-governance arrangements in Northwest Mexico. We focus on two ubiquitous forms of self-governance: hierarchical non-cooperative arrangements between fishers and fishbuyers, such as patron-client relationships (PCs), versus more cooperative arrangements amongst fishers, such as fishing cooperatives (co-ops). We developed an agent-based model of an archetypical SSF that captures key hypotheses from in-depth fieldwork in Northwest Mexico of fishers’ day-to-day fishing and trading. Results from our model indicate that high diversity in fishers’ reliability, and low initial trust between co-op members, makes co-ops’ establishment difficult. PCs cope better with this kind of diversity because, in contrast to co-ops, they have more flexibility in choosing whom to work with. However, once co-ops establish, they cope better with seasonal variability in fish abundance and provide long-term security for the fishers. We argue that existing levels of trust and diversity among fishers matter for different self-governance arrangements to establish and persist, and should therefore be taken into account when developing better, targeted policies for improved SSFs governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An effective evaluation of transportation network efficiency could offer guidance for the optimal control of urban traffic. Based on the introduction and related mathematical analysis of three quantitative evaluation methods for transportation network efficiency, this paper compares the information measured by them, including network structure, traffic demand, travel choice behavior and other factors which affect network efficiency. Accordingly, the applicability of various evaluation methods is discussed. Through analyzing different transportation network examples it is obtained that Q-H method could reflect the influence of network structure, traffic demand and user route choice behavior on transportation network efficiency well. In addition, the transportation network efficiency measured by this method and Braess’s Paradox can be explained with each other, which indicates a better evaluation of the real operation condition of transportation network. Through the analysis of the network efficiency calculated by Q-H method, it can also be drawn that a specific appropriate demand is existed to a given transportation network. Meanwhile, under the fixed demand, both the critical network structure that guarantees the stability and the basic operation of the network and a specific network structure contributing to the largest value of the transportation network efficiency can be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although frequent fluctuations in domestic hog prices seriously affect the stability and robustness of the hog supply chain, hog futures (an effective hedging instrument) have not been listed in China. To better understand hog futures market hedging, it is important to study the steady state of intersubjective bidding. This paper uses evolutionary game theory to construct a game model between hedgers and speculators in the hog futures market, and replicator dynamic equations are then used to obtain the steady state between the two trading entities. The results show that the steady state is one in which hedgers adopt a “buy” strategy and speculators adopt a “do not speculate” strategy, but this type of extreme steady state is not easily realized. Thus, to explore the rational proportion of hedgers and speculators in the evolutionary stabilization strategy, bidding processes were simulated using weekly average hog prices from 2006 to 2015, such that the conditions under which hedgers and speculators achieve a steady state could be analyzed. This task was performed to achieve the stability critical point, and we show that only when the value of λ is satisfied and the conditions of hog futures price changes and futures price are satisfied can hedgers and speculators achieve a rational proportion and a stable hog futures market. This market can thus provide a valuable reference for the development of the Chinese hog futures market and the formulation and guidance of relevant departmental policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human motion models are finding an increasing number of novel applications in many different fields, such as building design, computer graphics and robot motion planning. The Social Force Model is one of the most popular alternatives to describe the motion of pedestrians. By resorting to a physical analogy, individuals are assimilated to point-wise particles subject to social forces which drive their dynamics. Such a model implicitly assumes that humans move isotropically. On the contrary, empirical evidence shows that people do have a preferred direction of motion, walking forward most of the time. Lateral motions are observed only in specific circumstances, such as when navigating in overcrowded environments or avoiding unexpected obstacles. In this paper, the Headed Social Force Model is introduced in order to improve the realism of the trajectories generated by the classical Social Force Model. The key feature of the proposed approach is the inclusion of the pedestrians’ heading into the dynamic model used to describe the motion of each individual. The force and torque representing the model inputs are computed as suitable functions of the force terms resulting from the traditional Social Force Model. Moreover, a new force contribution is introduced in order to model the behavior of people walking together as a single group. The proposed model features high versatility, being able to reproduce both the unicycle-like trajectories typical of people moving in open spaces and the point-wise motion patterns occurring in high density scenarios. Extensive numerical simulations show an increased regularity of the resulting trajectories and confirm a general improvement of the model realism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collective behaviour is a fascinating and easily observable phenomenon, attractive to a wide range of researchers. In biology, computational models have been extensively used to investigate various properties of collective behaviour, such as: transfer of information across the group, benefits of grouping (defence against predation, foraging), group decision-making process, and group behaviour types. The question ‘why,’ however remains largely unanswered. Here the interest goes into which pressures led to the evolution of such behaviour, and evolutionary computational models have already been used to test various biological hypotheses. Most of these models use genetic algorithms to tune the parameters of previously presented non-evolutionary models, but very few attempt to evolve collective behaviour from scratch. Of these last, the successful attempts display clumping or swarming behaviour. Empirical evidence suggests that in fish schools there exist three classes of behaviour; swarming, milling and polarized. In this paper we present a novel, artificial life-like evolutionary model, where individual agents are governed by linguistic fuzzy rule-based systems, which is capable of evolving all three classes of behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximisation of influence propagation is a key ingredient to any viral marketing or socio-political campaigns. However, it is an NP-hard problem, and various approximate algorithms have been suggested to address the issue, though not largely successful. In this paper, we propose a bio-inspired approach to select the initial set of nodes which is significant in rapid convergence towards a sub-optimal solution in minimal runtime. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated using the re-tweet network of the hashtag #KissofLove on Twitter associated with the non-violent protest against the moral policing spread to many parts of India. Comparison with existing centrality based node ranking process the proposed method significant improvement on influence propagation. The proposed algorithm is one of the hardly few bio-inspired algorithms in network theory. We also report the results of the exploratory analysis of the network kiss of love campaign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a novel sparse coding and counting method under Bayesian framework for visual tracking. In contrast to existing methods, the proposed method employs the combination of L0 and L1 norm to regularize the linear coefficients of incrementally updated linear basis. The sparsity constraint enables the tracker to effectively handle difficult challenges, such as occlusion or image corruption. To achieve real-time processing, we propose a fast and efficient numerical algorithm for solving the proposed model. Although it is an NP-hard problem, the proposed accelerated proximal gradient (APG) approach is guaranteed to converge to a solution quickly. Besides, we provide a closed solution of combining L0 and L1 regularized representation to obtain better sparsity. Experimental results on challenging video sequences demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art results both in accuracy and speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Melioration learning is an empirically well-grounded model of reinforcement learning. By means of computer simulations, this paper derives predictions for several repeatedly played two-person games from this model. The results indicate a likely convergence to a pure Nash equilibrium of the game. If no pure equilibrium exists, the relative frequencies of choice may approach the predictions of the mixed Nash equilibrium. Yet in some games, no stable state is reached. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. Methods: We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. Results: We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. Conclusion: To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities also represents a highly correlated analysis tool to evaluate the advertising value of TV series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A differential evolution algorithm for solving Nash equilibrium in nonlinear continuous games is presented in this paper, called NIDE (Nikaido-Isoda differential evolution). At each generation, parent and child strategy profiles are compared one by one pairwisely, adapting Nikaido-Isoda function as fitness function. In practice, the NE of nonlinear game model with cubic cost function and quadratic demand function is solved, and this method could also be applied to non-concave payoff functions. Moreover, the NIDE is compared with the existing Nash Domination Evolutionary Multiplayer Optimization (NDEMO), the result showed that NIDE was significantly better than NDEMO with less iterations and shorter running time. These numerical examples suggested that the NIDE method is potentially useful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterizing how people move through space has been an important component of many disciplines. With the advent of automated data collection through GPS and other location sensing systems, researchers have the opportunity to examine human mobility at spatio-temporal resolution heretofore impossible. However, the copious and complex data collected through these logging systems can be difficult for humans to fully exploit, leading many researchers to propose novel metrics for encapsulating movement patterns in succinct and useful ways. A particularly salient proposed metric is the mobility entropy rate of the string representing the sequence of locations visited by an individual. However, mobility entropy rate is not scale invariant: entropy rate calculations based on measurements of the same trajectory at varying spatial or temporal granularity do not yield the same value, limiting the utility of mobility entropy rate as a metric by confounding inter-experimental comparisons. In this paper, we derive a scaling relationship for mobility entropy rate of non-repeating straight line paths from the definition of Lempel-Ziv compression. We show that the resulting formulation predicts the scaling behavior of simulated mobility traces, and provides an upper bound on mobility entropy rate under certain assumptions. We further show that this formulation has a maximum value for a particular sampling rate, implying that optimal sampling rates for particular movement patterns exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]