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The safety of highly aggregated tourist crowds is a challenging and important issue. This paper not only provided a comprehensive analysis of the accidents of highly aggregated tourist crowds but also determined the occurrence mechanism and coping paths. Based on the analysis of multiple cases, we found that the variable status of highly aggregated tourist crowds was the result of the interaction of three main elements: multisource pressure, state mutations and management responses. A series of factors interact and result in accidents, and the lack of a management response or a low-quality management response is the root cause of such accidents. A high-quality management response is a basic safety precaution for highly aggregated tourist crowds. Therefore, forming a virtuous circle of multisource pressure, state mutations and management responses is an effective path for coping with accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses text data mining to identify long-term developments in tourism academic research from the perspectives of thematic focus, geography, and gender of tourism authorship. Abstracts of papers published in the period of 1970–2017 in high-ranking tourist journals were extracted from the Scopus database and served as data source for the analysis. Fourteen subject areas were identified using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) text mining approach. LDA integrated with GIS information allowed to obtain geography distribution and trends of scholarly output, while probabilistic methods of gender identification based on social network data mining were used to track gender dynamics with sufficient confidence. The findings indicate that, while all 14 topics have been prominent from the inception of tourism studies to the present day, the geography of scholarship has notably expanded and the share of female authorship has increased through time and currently almost equals that of male authorship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study shows how liking politicians’ public Facebook posts can be used as an accurate measure for predicting present-day voter intention in a multiparty system. We highlight that a few, but selective digital traces produce prediction accuracies that are on par or even greater than most current approaches based upon bigger and broader datasets. Combining the online and offline, we connect a subsample of surveyed respondents to their public Facebook activity and apply machine learning classifiers to explore the link between their political liking behaviour and actual voting intention. Through this work, we show that even a single selective Facebook like can reveal as much about political voter intention as hundreds of heterogeneous likes. Further, by including the entire political like history of the respondents, our model reaches prediction accuracies above previous multiparty studies (60–70%). The main contribution of this paper is to show how public like-activity on Facebook allows political profiling of individual users in a multiparty system with accuracies above previous studies. Beside increased accuracies, the paper shows how such parsimonious measures allows us to generalize our findings to the entire population of a country and even across national borders, to other political multiparty systems. The approach in this study relies on data that are publicly available, and the simple setup we propose can with some limitations, be generalized to millions of users in other multiparty systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visual hand gesture recognition systems are promising technologies for Human Computer Interaction, as they allow a more immersive and intuitive interaction. Most of these systems are based on the analysis of skeleton information, which is in turn inferred from color, depth, or near-infrared imagery. However, the robust extraction of skeleton information from images is only possible for a subset of hand poses, which restricts the range of gestures that can be recognized. In this paper, a real-time hand gesture recognition system based on a near-infrared device is presented, which directly analyzes the infrared imagery to infer static and dynamic gestures, without using skeleton information. Thus, a much wider range of hand gestures can be recognized in comparison with skeleton-based approaches. To validate the proposed system, a new dataset of near-infrared imagery has been created, from which good results that outperform other state-of-the-art strategies have been obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distinguishing certain and uncertain information is of crucial importance both in the scientific field in the strict sense and in the popular scientific domain. In this paper, by adopting an epistemic stance perspective on certainty and uncertainty, and a mixed procedure of analysis, which combines a bottom-up and a top-down approach, we perform a comparative study (both qualitative and quantitative) of the uncertainty linguistic markers (verbs, non-verbs, modal verbs, conditional clauses, uncertain questions, epistemic future) and their scope in three different corpora: a historical corpus of 80 biomedical articles from the British Medical Journal (BMJ) 1840–2007; a corpus of 12 biomedical articles from BMJ 2013, and a contemporary corpus of 12 scientific popular articles from Discover 2013. The variables under observation are time, structure (IMRaD vs no-IMRaD) and genre (scientific vs popular articles). We apply the Generalized Linear Models analysis in order to test whether there are statistically significant differences (1) in the amount of uncertainty among the different corpora, and (2) in the categories of uncertainty markers used by writers. The results of our analysis reveal that (1) in all corpora, the percentages of uncertainty are always much lower than that of certainty; (2) uncertainty progressively diminishes over time in biomedical articles (in conjunction with their structural changes–IMRaD–and to the increase of the BMJ Impact Factor); and (3) uncertainty is slightly higher in scientific popular articles (Discover 2013) as compared to the contemporary corpus of scientific articles (BMJ 2013). Nevertheless, in all corpora, modal verbs are the most used uncertainty markers. These results suggest that not only do scientific writers prefer to communicate their uncertainty with markers of possibility rather than those of subjectivity but also that science journalists prefer using a third-person subject followed by modal verbs rather than a first-person subject followed by mental verbs such as think or believe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical studies show that discrimination by identity found in offline markets also prevails online. This paper reveal that in a competitive market, buyers that intend to discriminate exist but they are prevented from influencing the market outcome. To this end, we construct a field experiment on eBay, where half of the sellers disclose their names in their usernames while the other half do not. eBay, however, automatically discloses the seller’s names to the buyer after the auction. In the anonymous auctions, winning bidders thus learn the identity of the seller after the auction ends, and here we find buyers to discriminate against sellers with foreign-sounding names by leaving them feedback less often. However, there is no such discrimination in feedback provision when the seller name was known to the buyer before the auction. When bidders know the names of the sellers, the bidders with animus towards individuals with specific names can select out of auctions from these sellers, leaving winners that do not discriminate. One would expect that the auctions of for example sellers with foreign-sounding names would receive fewer bidders and thus lower auction prices. However, we observe no such differences: there are no statistically significant differences in the number of bids or auction prices received by sellers with foreign or domestic sounding names. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Creativity is a complex, multi-faceted concept encompassing a variety of related aspects, abilities, properties and behaviours. If we wish to study creativity scientifically, then a tractable and well-articulated model of creativity is required. Such a model would be of great value to researchers investigating the nature of creativity and in particular, those concerned with the evaluation of creative practice. This paper describes a unique approach to developing a suitable model of how creative behaviour emerges that is based on the words people use to describe the concept. Using techniques from the field of statistical natural language processing, we identify a collection of fourteen key components of creativity through an analysis of a corpus of academic papers on the topic. Words are identified which appear significantly often in connection with discussions of the concept. Using a measure of lexical similarity to help cluster these words, a number of distinct themes emerge, which collectively contribute to a comprehensive and multi-perspective model of creativity. The components provide an ontology of creativity: a set of building blocks which can be used to model creative practice in a variety of domains. The components have been employed in two case studies to evaluate the creativity of computational systems and have proven useful in articulating achievements of this work and directions for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes seasonal effects and their potential drivers in charitable giving. We conduct two studies to analyze whether donations to the German Red Cross differ between the Christmas season and summer. In study 1 we find that in the pre-Christmas shopping season prosocial subjects almost donate 50% less compared to prosocials in summer. In study 2 we replicate the low donations in the Christmas season. In an extensive questionnaire we control for several causes of this effect. The data suggest that the higher prosocials’ self-reported stress level, the lower the donations. The higher their relative savings, the lower the giving. Our questionnaire rules out that “donation fatigue” matters. That is, donations do not depend on the number of charitable campaigns subjects are confronted with and their engagement in these activities during Christmas season outside the lab. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2018, the Olympic shooting regulations were modified to increase the number of women’s shots from 40 to 60, equaling the number given to men. This research presented in this paper addresses two research issues: (1) has the performance of women’s shooting changed as a result of this increase in the number of shots? and (2) with the equalized number of shots in place, do women and men perform differently? This study included 292 shooters who competed in the 2016 and/or 2018 European Championships who all obtained top-50 results. Our sample included balanced quotas for sports (50% pistol and 50% rifle) and by category (50% women and 50% men). Both championships were held in the same facilities and in the same month of the season, but with the difference that in 2016, women had 40 shots and in 2018 they had 60 shots. We observed that women’s performances did not diminish for the pistol or the rifle category when their number of shots were increased. Men and women shot equally well with rifles, although the men’s performance with pistols was higher than that of women. We concluded that sports in which physical strength is a minor factor, as in the case of shooting, should revise their regulations in the interest of greater gender equality in sports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperament and Psychological Types can be defined as innate psychological characteristics associated with how we relate with the world, and often influence our study and career choices. Furthermore, understanding these features help us manage conflicts, develop leadership, improve teaching and many other skills. Assigning temperament and psychological types is usually made by filling specific questionnaires. However, it is possible to identify temperamental characteristics from a linguistic and behavioral analysis of social media data from a user. Thus, machine-learning algorithms can be used to learn from a user’s social media data and infer his/her behavioral type. This paper initially provides a brief historical review of theories on temperament and then brings a survey of research aimed at predicting temperament and psychological types from social media data. It follows with the proposal of a framework to predict temperament and psychological types from a linguistic and behavioral analysis of Twitter data. The proposed framework infers temperament types following the David Keirsey’s model, and psychological types based on the MBTI model. Various data modelling and classifiers are used. The results showed that Random Forests with the LIWC technique can predict with 96.46% of accuracy the Artisan temperament, 92.19% the Guardian temperament, 78.68% the Idealist, and 83.82% the Rational temperament. The MBTI results also showed that Random Forests achieved a better performance with an accuracy of 82.05% for the E/I pair, 88.38% for the S/N pair, 80.57% for the T/F pair, and 78.26% for the J/P pair. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Centile curves and standard scores are common in epidemiological research. However, standardised norms and centile growth curves for language disorder that reflect the entire UK local school population do not exist. Methods: Scores on six language indices assessing receptive and expressive functioning of children were obtained from the SCALES population survey. Monolingual English speaking participants were aged between five and nine years. Children who attended special schools at study intake, or who were learning English as an additional language were excluded. We constructed language norms using the LMS method of standardisation which allows for skewed measurements. We made use of probability weights that were produced from a two-step logistic model. Distributions of estimated standard scores from an intensively assessed sub-population and from the full population were contrasted to demonstrate the role of weights. Results: Non-overlapping centile curves and standardised scores at each age were obtained for the six language indices. The use of weights was essential at retrieving the target distribution of the scores. An online calculator that estimates standardised scores for the measures was constructed and made freely available. Conclusions: The findings highlight the usefulness and flexibility of the LMS method at dealing with the standardisation of linguistic and educational measures that are sufficiently continuous. The paper adds to the existing literature by providing population norms for a number of language tests that were calculated from the same group of individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modelling of deceptions in game theory and decision theory has not been well studied, despite the increasing importance of this problem in social media, public discourse, and organisational management. This paper presents an improved formulation of the extant information-theoretic models of deceptions, a framework for incorporating these models of deception into game and decision theoretic models of deception, and applies these models and this framework in an agent based evolutionary simulation that models two very common deception types employed in “fake news” attacks. The simulation results for both deception types modelled show, as observed empirically in many social systems subjected to “fake news” attacks, that even a very small population of deceivers that transiently invades a much larger population of non-deceiving agents can strongly alter the equilibrium behaviour of the population in favour of agents playing an always defect strategy. The results also show that the ability of a population of deceivers to establish itself or remain present in a population is highly sensitive to the cost of the deception, as this cost reduces the fitness of deceiving agents when competing against non-deceiving agents. Diffusion behaviours observed for agents exploiting the deception producing false beliefs are very close to empirically observed behaviours in social media, when fitted to epidemiological models. We thus demonstrate, using the improved formulation of the information-theoretic models of deception, that agent based evolutionary simulations employing the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma can accurately capture the behaviours of a population subject to deception attacks introducing uncertainty and false perceptions, and show that information-theoretic models of deception have practical applications beyond trivial taxonomical analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies whether intentionality is more prevalent than fairness in social preferences. We do this by introducing a new three-player game in which the choices of neutral third-party arbiters are isolated from any monetary or strategic concerns. This allows us to study the normative preferences of subjects, and to compare the relative weight they give to intentions and inequality. The results show that arbiters are mainly concerned with inequality, while other’s (selfish) intentions seem to play a minor role in their preferences. This result is robust to a series of experimental designs, suggesting that the role of intentions in social preferences might be smaller than implied by the previous literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accuracy and diversity of recommendation algorithms have always been the research hotspot of recommender systems. A good recommender system should not only have high accuracy and diversity, but also have adequate robustness against spammer attacks. However, the issue of recommendation robustness has received relatively little attention in the literature. In this paper, we systematically study the influences of different spammer behaviors on the recommendation results in various recommendation algorithms. We further propose an improved algorithm by incorporating the inner-similarity of user’s purchased items in the classic KNN approach. The new algorithm effectively enhances the robustness against spammer attacks and thus outperforms traditional algorithms in recommendation accuracy and diversity when spammers exist in the online commercial systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the effects of childhood experiences of parental corporal punishment (CP) and neglectful parenting (NP) on Japanese university students’ endorsement of parental CP (EPP) to discipline children, in relation to subjective happiness (SH). A total of 536 undergraduate students who showed no physical symptoms completed anonymous paper-based questionnaires addressing demographic characteristics, undergraduate classes, and recent health conditions on SF-8 (PCS, MCS). It was found that the proportions of participants who experienced pervasive CP and NP were larger in men than in women (36.5% vs. 19.4% for CP; 22.1% vs. 9.7% for NP). Multiple regression analyses (n = 346) revealed that the CP score was associated with positive EPP (β = 0.310, p < 0.001). Further, students whose major was nursery education reported significantly lower level of EPP; however, neither SH nor good recent health conditions significantly reduced EPP. The NP score was inversely associated with the SH score (β = -0.253, p < 0.001) (n = 346). In conclusion, childhood experiences of parental CP may affect adolescents’ views related to their own parenting. Further investigation using internationally comparable methodologies, especially in prospective cohort studies, is warranted, not only in Japan but also in other Asian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People are motivated to hold favorable attitudes about the systems on which they depend, so they justify (i.e., rationalize, defend and bolster) forms of social and economic inequality, even if the inequality is disadvantageous to them. This paper examines how this system-justifying motivation is reflected in behaviors involving interpersonal trust. In a series of three experiments using the trust game I manipulate income inequality by providing participants with higher (advantaged position) or lower (disadvantaged position) initial endowments and measure their trust toward individuals on the same or on different positions. Results show that higher income individuals trust other higher income individuals more than lower income individuals (ingroup favoritism), while lower income individuals trust higher income individuals more than lower income individuals (outgroup favoritism). It is also shown that the strength of these biases is dependent on the level of endorsement of system justifying ideology and the legitimacy of the system. More trust toward those in advantaged positions within a social system, expressed both by equally advantaged as well as by disadvantaged others, not only secures the advantaged in their positions but also reinforces the underlying inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting and analyzing behaviors of investors is of great value to financial institutions. This paper uses survey data from about 9,000 individual investors across China to explore the predictability of decision behaviors by studying demographic characteristics that are relatively easy to obtain. After applying Pearson’s chi-squared test, Spearman rank correlation test, and several data mining methods, we verified that demographic characteristics are closely linked to decision behaviors, and it would be an economical and feasible solution for financial organizations to build initial behavioral prediction models especially when investors’ behavioral data are insufficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the booming development of evacuation simulation software, developing an extensive database in indoor scenarios for evacuation models is imperative. In this paper, we conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the collected videotapes and aim to provide a complete and unitary database of pedestrians’ earthquake emergency response behaviors in indoor scenarios, including human-environment interactions. Using the qualitative analysis method, we extract keyword groups and keywords that code the response modes of pedestrians and construct a general decision flowchart using chronological organization. Using the quantitative analysis method, we analyze data on the delay time, evacuation speed, evacuation route and emergency exit choices. Furthermore, we study the effect of classroom layout on emergency evacuation. The database for indoor scenarios provides reliable input parameters and allows the construction of real and effective constraints for use in software and mathematical models. The database can also be used to validate the accuracy of evacuation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Childhood obesity rates have been rising rapidly in developing countries. A better understanding of the risk factors and social context is necessary to inform public health interventions and policies. This paper describes the validation of several measurement scales for use in Turkey, which relate to child and parent perceptions of physical activity (PA) and enablers and barriers of physical activity in the home environment. Method: The aim of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of several measurement scales in Turkey using a population sample across three socio-economic strata in the Turkish capital, Ankara. Surveys were conducted in Grade 4 children (mean age = 9.7 years for boys; 9.9 years for girls), and their parents, across 6 randomly selected schools, stratified by SES (n = 641 students, 483 parents). Construct validity of the scales was evaluated through exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Internal consistency of scales and test-retest reliability were assessed by Cronbach’s alpha and intra-class correlation. Results: The scales as a whole were found to have acceptable-to-good model fit statistics (PA Barriers: RMSEA = 0.076, SRMR = 0.0577, AGFI = 0.901; PA Outcome Expectancies: RMSEA = 0.054, SRMR = 0.0545, AGFI = 0.916, and PA Home Environment: RMSEA = 0.038, SRMR = 0.0233, AGFI = 0.976). The PA Barriers subscales showed good internal consistency and poor to fair test-retest reliability (personal α = 0.79, ICC = 0.29, environmental α = 0.73, ICC = 0.59). The PA Outcome Expectancies subscales showed good internal consistency and test-retest reliability (negative α = 0.77, ICC = 0.56; positive α = 0.74, ICC = 0.49). Only the PA Home Environment subscale on support for PA was validated in the final confirmatory model; it showed moderate internal consistency and test-retest reliability (α = 0.61, ICC = 0.48). Discussion: This study is the first to validate measures of perceptions of physical activity and the physical activity home environment in Turkey. Our results support the originally hypothesized two-factor structures for Physical Activity Barriers and Physical Activity Outcome Expectancies. However, we found the one-factor rather than two-factor structure for Physical Activity Home Environment had the best model fit. This study provides general support for the use of these scales in Turkey in terms of validity, but test-retest reliability warrants further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper estimates the effect of students’ position in the classroom register on their academic performance. We use a unique dataset from Poland which contains information on the academic outcomes of students in the humanities, science and mathematics lower secondary school exams as well as the position students occupy in their classroom register. We find that students whose names are recorded near the end of the class list have lower performance than those students whose names are recorded near the beginning of the list. The effect appears to be larger for performance in the humanities exam, and for low-achieving boys who attend large classes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Crime and violence causes massive disruptions to the health, survival and development of populations. In South Africa, incredibly high rates of crime and violence are noted. The country also has a very large youth population whose health, survival and development are key to economic growth. Among other efforts to encourage healthy youth development and the promotion of social activities such as sports, youth groups, choirs and so forth. This study examines the relationship between perceived community safety and the uptake of social activities among youth in South Africa. Data and methods: This paper uses data from the National Youth Lifestyle Survey (2008) with an unweighted sample of 4,391 youth (age12-22 years old). Using chi-square and logistic regression analysis the association between perceived community safety and social activity participation are tested. Findings: The results indicate that youth participation in social activities in South Africa is high (55% of males and 45% of females). Among males, the most prominent activity is sports (51.8%), while for females there is high participation in choir and singing groups (55.68%). More than 50% of males perceive their communities as risky while less than half of females feel the same. Male youth are more likely to participate in social activities if they perceive their communities as risky (OR = 1.04). Females (OR = 0.83), youth have a negative view of their future (OR = 0.43) are less likely to participate in social activities. Conclusions: There exists an association between youth’s perception of community safety and their participation in social activities. Whether sports and groups are protective or enabling environments for youth from unsafe communities is moot. More in-depth research is needed on why youth participate in these clubs and groups to truly understand the role of social activities in South African societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ‘irrational’ preference for fairness has attracted increasing attention. Although previous studies have focused on the effects of spitefulness on the evolution of fairness, they did not consider non-monotonic rejections shown in behavioral experiments. In this paper, we introduce a non-monotonic rejection in an evolutionary model of the Ultimatum Game. We propose strategy intervention to study the evolution of fairness in general structured populations. By sequentially adding five strategies into the competition between a fair strategy and a selfish strategy, we arrive at the following conclusions. First, the evolution of fairness is inhibited by altruism, but it is promoted by spitefulness. Second, the non-monotonic rejection helps fairness overcome selfishness. Particularly for group-structured populations, we analytically investigate how fairness, selfishness, altruism, and spitefulness are affected by population size, mutation, and migration in the competition among seven strategies. Our results may provide important insights into understanding the evolutionary origin of fairness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on a social discounting experiment conducted with university students in South Africa. In line with other social discounting task experiments, participants identify target individuals at different degrees of intimacy in their social network and then make 10 choices involving sums of money for themselves or their targets. For an altruism premium to exist, senders’ donations to recipients should be positive, statistically and economically significant, and independent of relationship closeness. We hypothesize that in addition to the altruism premium for kin documented in the literature, there may be other premia for family in general and for partners and friends. We find that, apart from the “kinship” premium, there is a sizeable “intimacy” premium, which together translates into a substantial “family” premium. The study also finds a “friendship premium”, as is documented in various experiments. The closeness of relationships among family and kin, especially close kin, has a significant and large effect on altruism. The results also attest to the importance of the extended family in regards to the “kinship” premium on altruism. These various premiums on altruism emphasise the importance of the supportive role of various social systems. Nevertheless, altruism within families and among close kin might also be enhanced by building more cohesive and stronger families using developmental social welfare programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro-blogging systems have become one of the most important ways for information sharing. Network structure and users’ interactions such as forwarding behaviors have aroused considerable research attention, while mention, as a key feature in micro-blogging platforms which can improve the visibility of a message and direct it to a particular user beyond the underlying social structure, is seldom studied in previous works. In this paper, we empirically study the mention effect in information diffusion, using the dataset from a population-scale social media website. We find that users with high number of followers would receive much more mentions than others. We further investigate the effect of mention in information diffusion by examining the response probability with respect to the number of mentions in a message and observe a saturation at around 5 mentions. Furthermore, we find that the response probability is the highest when a reciprocal followship exists between users, and one is more likely to receive a target user’s response if they have similar social status. To illustrate these findings, we propose the response prediction task and formulate it as a binary classification problem. Extensive evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of discovered factors. Our results have consequences for the understanding of human dynamics on the social network, and potential implications for viral marketing and public opinion monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Psychological and other persuasive mechanisms across diverse contexts are well researched, with many studies of the effectiveness of specific persuasive techniques on distinct types of human behaviour. In the present paper, our specific interest lies in the development of a generalized modular psychometric tool to measure individuals’ susceptibility to persuasion. The scale is constructed using items from previously developed and validated particulate scales established in the domains of social psychology and behavioural economics. In the first study we establish the Susceptibility to Persuasion–II (StP-II) scale, containing 54 items, 10 subscales and further 6 sub-sub scales. In Study 2 we establish the scale’s construct validity and reconfirm its reliability. We present a valid and reliable modular psychometric tool that measures general susceptibility to persuasive techniques. Since its inception, we have successfully implemented the StP-II scale to measure susceptibility to persuasion of IT security officers, the role of psychology of persuasion in cybercrime victims and general persuadability levels of Facebook users; these manuscripts are in preparation. We argue that the StP-II scale shows promise in measuring individual differences in susceptibility to persuasion, and is applicable across diverse contexts such as Internet security and cybercrime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demonstrability—the extent to which group members can recognize a correct solution to a problem—has a significant effect on group performance. However, the interplay between group size, demonstrability and performance is not well understood. This paper addresses these gaps by studying the joint effect of two factors—the difficulty of solving a problem and the difficulty of verifying the correctness of a solution—on the ability of groups of varying sizes to converge to correct solutions. Our empirical investigations use problem instances from different computational complexity classes, NP-Complete (NPC) and PSPACE-complete (PSC), that exhibit similar solution difficulty but differ in verification difficulty. Our study focuses on nominal groups to isolate the effect of problem complexity on performance. We show that NPC problems have higher demonstrability than PSC problems: participants were significantly more likely to recognize correct and incorrect solutions for NPC problems than for PSC problems. We further show that increasing the group size can actually decrease group performance for some problems of low demonstrability. We analytically derive the boundary that distinguishes these problems from others for which group performance monotonically improves with group size. These findings increase our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie group problem-solving processes, and can inform the design of systems and processes that would better facilitate collective decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses two datasets of elite soccer players (top 1000 professionals and UEFA Under-19 Youth League). In both, we find a Relative Age Effect (RAE) for frequency, but not for value. That is, while there are more players born at the start of the competition year, their transfer values are no higher, nor are they given more game time. We use Poisson regression to derive a transparent index of the discrimination present in RAE. Also, because Poisson is valid for small frequency counts, it supports analysis at the disaggregated levels of country and club. From this, we conclude there are no paragon clubs or countries immune to RAE; that is clubs and countries do not differ systematically in the RAE they experience; also, that Poisson regression is a powerful and flexible method of analysing RAE data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates a framework of processes for identifying potential witnesses of events from evidence they post to social media. The research defines original evidence models for micro-blog content sources, the relative uncertainty of different evidence types, and models for testing evidence by combination. Methods to filter and extract evidence using automated and semi-automated means are demonstrated using a Twitter case study event. Further, an implementation to test extracted evidence using Dempster Shafer Theory of Evidence are presented. The results indicate that the inclusion of evidence from micro-blog text and linked image content can increase the number of micro-bloggers identified at events, in comparison to the number of micro-bloggers identified from geotags alone. Additionally, the number of micro-bloggers that can be tested for evidence corroboration or conflict, is increased by incorporating evidence identified in their posting history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an age when people are predisposed to report real-world events through their social media accounts, many researchers value the benefits of mining user generated content from social media. Compared with the traditional news media, social media services, such as Twitter, can provide more complete and timely information about the real-world events. However events are often like a puzzle and in order to solve the puzzle/understand the event, we must identify all the sub-events or pieces. Existing Twitter event monitoring systems for sub-event detection and summarization currently typically analyse events based on partial data as conventional data collection methodologies are unable to collect comprehensive event data. This results in existing systems often being unable to report sub-events in real-time and often in completely missing sub-events or pieces in the broader event puzzle. This paper proposes a Sub-event detection by real-TIme Microblog monitoring (STRIM) framework that leverages the temporal feature of an expanded set of news-worthy event content. In order to more comprehensively and accurately identify sub-events this framework first proposes the use of adaptive microblog crawling. Our adaptive microblog crawler is capable of increasing the coverage of events while minimizing the amount of non-relevant content. We then propose a stream division methodology that can be accomplished in real time so that the temporal features of the expanded event streams can be analysed by a burst detection algorithm. In the final steps of the framework, the content features are extracted from each divided stream and recombined to provide a final summarization of the sub-events. The proposed framework is evaluated against traditional event detection using event recall and event precision metrics. Results show that improving the quality and coverage of event contents contribute to better event detection by identifying additional valid sub-events. The novel combination of our proposed adaptive crawler and our stream division/recombination technique provides significant gains in event recall (44.44%) and event precision (9.57%). The addition of these sub-events or pieces, allows us to get closer to solving the event puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the animal world, various kinds of collective motions have been found and proven to be efficient ways of carrying out some activities such as searching for food and avoiding predators. Many scholars research the interactions of collective behaviors of human beings according to the rules of collective behaviors of animals. Based on the Lennard-Jones potential function and a self-organization process, our paper proposes a topological communication model to simulate the collective behaviors of human beings. In the results of simulations, we find various types of collective behavior and fission behavior and discover the threshold for the emergence of collective behavior, which is the range five to seven for the number of topology K. According to the analysis of network properties of the model, the in-degree of individuals is always equal to the number of topology. In the stable state, the out-degrees of individuals distribute around the value of the number of topology K, except that the out-degree of a single individual is approximately double the out-degrees of the other individuals. In addition, under different initial conditions, some features of different kinds of networks emerge from the model. We also find the leader and herd mentality effects in the characteristics of the behaviors of human beings in our model. Thus, this work could be used to discover how to promote the emergence of beneficial group behaviors and prevent the emergence of harmful behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Code-based cryptography is one of few alternatives supposed to be secure in a post-quantum world. Meanwhile, identity-based identification and signature (IBI/IBS) schemes are two of the most fundamental cryptographic primitives, so several code-based IBI/IBS schemes have been proposed. However, with increasingly profound researches on coding theory, the security reduction and efficiency of such schemes have been invalidated and challenged. In this paper, we construct provably secure IBI/IBS schemes from code assumptions against impersonation under active and concurrent attacks through a provably secure code-based signature technique proposed by Preetha, Vasant and Rangan (PVR signature), and a security enhancement Or-proof technique. We also present the parallel-PVR technique to decrease parameter values while maintaining the standard security level. Compared to other code-based IBI/IBS schemes, our schemes achieve not only preferable public parameter size, private key size, communication cost and signature length due to better parameter choices, but also provably secure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how information flow properties of a network affect the formation of categories shared between individuals, who are communicating through that network. Our work is based on the established multi-agent model of the emergence of linguistic categories grounded in external environment. We study how network information propagation efficiency and the direction of information flow affect categorization by performing simulations with idealized network topologies optimizing certain network centrality measures. We measure dynamic social adaptation when either network topology or environment is subject to change during the experiment, and the system has to adapt to new conditions. We find that both decentralized network topology efficient in information propagation and the presence of central authority (information flow from the center to peripheries) are beneficial for the formation of global agreement between agents. Systems with central authority cope well with network topology change, but are less robust in the case of environment change. These findings help to understand which network properties affect processes of social adaptation. They are important to inform the debate on the advantages and disadvantages of centralized systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the demand for performance improvement and the existence of prior information, semi-supervised community detection with pairwise constraints becomes a hot topic. Most existing methods have been successfully encoding the must-link constraints, but neglect the opposite ones, i.e., the cannot-link constraints, which can force the exclusion between nodes. In this paper, we are interested in understanding the role of cannot-link constraints and effectively encoding pairwise constraints. Towards these goals, we define an integral generative process jointly considering the network topology, must-link and cannot-link constraints. We propose to characterize this process as a Multi-variance Mixed Gaussian Generative (MMGG) Model to address diverse degrees of confidences that exist in network topology and pairwise constraints and formulate it as a weighted nonnegative matrix factorization problem. The experiments on artificial and real-world networks not only illustrate the superiority of our proposed MMGG, but also, most importantly, reveal the roles of pairwise constraints. That is, though the must-link is more important than cannot-link when either of them is available, both must-link and cannot-link are equally important when both of them are available. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on discovering and exploring the importance of cannot-link constraints in semi-supervised community detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community detection is an important tasks across a number of research fields including social science, biology, and physics. In the real world, topology information alone is often inadequate to accurately find out community structure due to its sparsity and noise. The potential useful prior information such as pairwise constraints which contain must-link and cannot-link constraints can be obtained from domain knowledge in many applications. Thus, combining network topology with prior information to improve the community detection accuracy is promising. Previous methods mainly utilize the must-link constraints while cannot make full use of cannot-link constraints. In this paper, we propose a semi-supervised community detection framework which can effectively incorporate two types of pairwise constraints into the detection process. Particularly, must-link and cannot-link constraints are represented as positive and negative links, and we encode them by adding different graph regularization terms to penalize closeness of the nodes. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets show that the proposed framework significantly improves the accuracy of community detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) is widely used for finding the documents whose semantic is similar to the query of keywords. Although LSA yield promising similar results, the existing LSA algorithms involve lots of unnecessary operations in similarity computation and candidate check during on-line query processing, which is expensive in terms of time cost and cannot efficiently response the query request especially when the dataset becomes large. In this paper, we study the efficiency problem of on-line query processing for LSA towards efficiently searching the similar documents to a given query. We rewrite the similarity equation of LSA combined with an intermediate value called partial similarity that is stored in a designed index called partial index. For reducing the searching space, we give an approximate form of similarity equation, and then develop an efficient algorithm for building partial index, which skips the partial similarities lower than a given threshold θ. Based on partial index, we develop an efficient algorithm called ILSA for supporting fast on-line query processing. The given query is transformed into a pseudo document vector, and the similarities between query and candidate documents are computed by accumulating the partial similarities obtained from the index nodes corresponds to non-zero entries in the pseudo document vector. Compared to the LSA algorithm, ILSA reduces the time cost of on-line query processing by pruning the candidate documents that are not promising and skipping the operations that make little contribution to similarity scores. Extensive experiments through comparison with LSA have been done, which demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small-scale fisheries (SSFs) in developing countries are expected to play a significant role in poverty alleviation and enhancing food security in the decades to come. To realize this expectation, a better understanding of their informal self-governance arrangements is critical for developing policies that can improve fishers’ livelihoods and lead to sustainable ecosystem stewardship. The goal of this paper is to develop a more nuanced understanding of micro-level factors—such as fishers’ characteristics and behavior—to explain observed differences in self-governance arrangements in Northwest Mexico. We focus on two ubiquitous forms of self-governance: hierarchical non-cooperative arrangements between fishers and fishbuyers, such as patron-client relationships (PCs), versus more cooperative arrangements amongst fishers, such as fishing cooperatives (co-ops). We developed an agent-based model of an archetypical SSF that captures key hypotheses from in-depth fieldwork in Northwest Mexico of fishers’ day-to-day fishing and trading. Results from our model indicate that high diversity in fishers’ reliability, and low initial trust between co-op members, makes co-ops’ establishment difficult. PCs cope better with this kind of diversity because, in contrast to co-ops, they have more flexibility in choosing whom to work with. However, once co-ops establish, they cope better with seasonal variability in fish abundance and provide long-term security for the fishers. We argue that existing levels of trust and diversity among fishers matter for different self-governance arrangements to establish and persist, and should therefore be taken into account when developing better, targeted policies for improved SSFs governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Labeling theory suggests that criminal justice interventions amplify offending behavior. Theories of intergenerational transmission suggest why children of convicted parents have a higher risk of offending. This paper combines these two perspectives and investigates whether labeling effects might be stronger for children of convicted parents. We first investigated labeling effects within the individual: we examined the impact of a conviction between ages 19–26 on self-reported offending behavior between 27–32 while controlling for self-reported behavior between 15–18. Our results show that a conviction predicted someone’s later self-reported offending behavior, even when previous offending behavior was taken into account. Second, we investigated whether having a convicted parent influenced this association. When we added this interaction to the analysis, a labeling effect was only visible among people with convicted parents. This supports the idea of cumulative disadvantage: Labeling seems stronger for people who are already in a disadvantaged situation having a convicted parent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is twofold: to validate the properties of the Italian version of the Baller Identity Measurement Scale (i.e., BIMS-IT), a self-report questionnaire based on the athletic and academic identities; and to investigate differences in psychosocial factors such as gender, age, type of sport, and competition level. The dimensionality of the BIMS-IT was explored by means of the exploratory factor analysis, considering the scale’s internal consistency too (Confirmatory Factor Analysis). Results related to exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis supported a model of measurement composed of two correlated factors: the athletic and academic identities and affectivity related to identities. For both factors, differences emerged between age, and competition level sub groups. In particular, higher identity scores emerged for ≤ 24 years old student-athletes with respect to their age counterparts. National sub-elite student-athletes reported lower identity values than those of national elite and international levels. Results suggest that the Italian version of the BIMS-IT is psychometrically robust and could be adopted for empirical uses. The higher identity scores reported by younger and higher competition level participants suggest a correspondent higher involvement into the student-athlete role. However, BIMS-IT represents a distinct model with respect to the original American BIMS, determining the need of further research on the student-athletes’ identity to better clarify any socio-cultural contest effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximisation of influence propagation is a key ingredient to any viral marketing or socio-political campaigns. However, it is an NP-hard problem, and various approximate algorithms have been suggested to address the issue, though not largely successful. In this paper, we propose a bio-inspired approach to select the initial set of nodes which is significant in rapid convergence towards a sub-optimal solution in minimal runtime. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated using the re-tweet network of the hashtag #KissofLove on Twitter associated with the non-violent protest against the moral policing spread to many parts of India. Comparison with existing centrality based node ranking process the proposed method significant improvement on influence propagation. The proposed algorithm is one of the hardly few bio-inspired algorithms in network theory. We also report the results of the exploratory analysis of the network kiss of love campaign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a novel sparse coding and counting method under Bayesian framework for visual tracking. In contrast to existing methods, the proposed method employs the combination of L0 and L1 norm to regularize the linear coefficients of incrementally updated linear basis. The sparsity constraint enables the tracker to effectively handle difficult challenges, such as occlusion or image corruption. To achieve real-time processing, we propose a fast and efficient numerical algorithm for solving the proposed model. Although it is an NP-hard problem, the proposed accelerated proximal gradient (APG) approach is guaranteed to converge to a solution quickly. Besides, we provide a closed solution of combining L0 and L1 regularized representation to obtain better sparsity. Experimental results on challenging video sequences demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art results both in accuracy and speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of Internet-based sources of information for health surveillance applications has increased in recent years, as a greater share of social and media activity happens through online channels. The potential surveillance value in online sources of information about emergent health events include early warning, situational awareness, risk perception and evaluation of health messaging among others. The challenge in harnessing these sources of data is the vast number of potential sources to monitor and developing the tools to translate dynamic unstructured content into actionable information. In this paper we investigated the use of one social media outlet, Twitter, for surveillance of avian influenza risk in North America. We collected AI-related messages over a five-month period and compared these to official surveillance records of AI outbreaks. A fully automated data extraction and analysis pipeline was developed to acquire, structure, and analyze social media messages in an online context. Two methods of outbreak detection; a static threshold and a cumulative-sum dynamic threshold; based on a time series model of normal activity were evaluated for their ability to discern important time periods of AI-related messaging and media activity. Our findings show that peaks in activity were related to real-world events, with outbreaks in Nigeria, France and the USA receiving the most attention while those in China were less evident in the social media data. Topic models found themes related to specific AI events for the dynamic threshold method, while many for the static method were ambiguous. Further analyses of these data might focus on quantifying the bias in coverage and relation between outbreak characteristics and detectability in social media data. Finally, while the analyses here focused on broad themes and trends, there is likely additional value in developing methods for identifying low-frequency messages, operationalizing this methodology into a comprehensive system for visualizing patterns extracted from the Internet, and integrating these data with other sources of information such as wildlife, environment, and agricultural data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Melioration learning is an empirically well-grounded model of reinforcement learning. By means of computer simulations, this paper derives predictions for several repeatedly played two-person games from this model. The results indicate a likely convergence to a pure Nash equilibrium of the game. If no pure equilibrium exists, the relative frequencies of choice may approach the predictions of the mixed Nash equilibrium. Yet in some games, no stable state is reached. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to understand individual human actions is a fundamental question to modern science, which drives and incurs many social, technological, racial, religious and economic phenomena. Human dynamics tries to reveal the temporal pattern and internal mechanism of human actions in letter or electronic communications, from the perspective of continuous interactions among friends or acquaintances. For interactions between stranger to stranger, taxi industry provide fruitful phenomina and evidence to investigate the action decisions. In fact, one striking disturbing events commonly reported in taxi industry is passenger refusing or denial, whose reasons vary, including skin color, blind passenger, being a foreigner or too close destination, religion reasons and anti specific nationality, so that complaints about taxi passenger refusing have to be concerned and processed carefully by local governments. But more universal factors for this phenomena are of great significance, which might be fulfilled by big data research to obtain novel insights in this question. In this paper, we demonstrate the big data analytics application in revealing novel insights from massive taxi trace data, which, for the first time, validates the passengers denial in taxi industry and estimates the denial ratio in Beijing city. We first quantify the income differentiation facts among taxi drivers. Then we find out that choosing the drop-off places also contributes to the high income for taxi drivers, compared to the previous explanation of mobility intelligence. Moreover, we propose the pick-up, drop-off and grid diversity concepts and related diversity analysis suggest that, high income taxi drivers will deny passengers in some situations, so as to choose the passengers’ destination they prefer. Finally we design an estimation method for denial ratio and infer that high income taxi drivers will deny passengers with 8.52% likelihood in Beijing. Our work exhibits the power of big data analysis in revealing some dark side investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper advances theories of social learning through an empirical examination of how social networks change over time. Social networks are important for learning because they constrain individuals’ access to information about the behaviors and cognitions of other people. Using data on a large social network of mobile device users over a one-month time period, we test three hypotheses: 1) attraction homophily causes individuals to form ties on the basis of attribute similarity, 2) aversion homophily causes individuals to delete existing ties on the basis of attribute dissimilarity, and 3) social influence causes individuals to adopt the attributes of others they share direct ties with. Statistical models offer varied degrees of support for all three hypotheses and show that these mechanisms are more complex than assumed in prior work. Although homophily is normally thought of as a process of attraction, people also avoid relationships with others who are different. These mechanisms have distinct effects on network structure. While social influence does help explain behavior, people tend to follow global trends more than they follow their friends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. Methods: We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. Results: We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. Conclusion: To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities also represents a highly correlated analysis tool to evaluate the advertising value of TV series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cooperation amongst resource users holds the key to overcoming the social dilemma that characterizes community-based common-pool resource management. But is cooperation alone enough to achieve sustainable resource use? The short answer is no. Developing management strategies in a complex social-ecological environment also requires ecological knowledge and approaches to deal with perceived environmental uncertainty. Recent behavioral experimental research indicates variation in the degree to which a group of users can identify a sustainable exploitation level. In this paper, we identify social-ecological micro-foundations that facilitate cooperative sustainable common-pool resource use. We do so by using an agent-based model (ABM) that is informed by behavioral common-pool resource experiments. In these experiments, groups that cooperate do not necessarily manage the resource sustainably, but also over- or underexploit. By reproducing the patterns of the behavioral experiments in a qualitative way, the ABM represents a social-ecological explanation for the experimental observations. We find that the ecological knowledge of each group member cannot sufficiently explain the relationship between cooperation and sustainable resource use. Instead, the development of a sustainable exploitation level depends on the distribution of ecological knowledge among the group members, their influence on each other’s knowledge, and the environmental uncertainty the individuals perceive. The study provides insights about critical social-ecological micro-foundations underpinning collective action and sustainable resource management. These insights may inform policy-making, but also point to future research needs regarding the mechanisms of social learning, the development of shared management strategies and the interplay of social and ecological uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper is to estimate peer influence in video gaming time among adolescents. Using a nationally representative sample of the U.S. school-aged adolescents in 2009–2010, we estimate a structural model that accounts for the potential biases in the estimate of the peer effect. Our peer group is exogenously assigned and includes one year older adolescents in the same school grade as the respondent. The peer measure is based on peers’ own reports of video gaming time. We find that an additional one hour of playing video games per week by older grade-mates results in .47 hours increase in video gaming time by male responders. We do not find significant peer effect among female responders. Effective policies aimed at influencing the time that adolescents spend video gaming should take these findings into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the factor structure and measurement invariance of the Task and Ego Orientation in Sport Questionnaire (TEOSQ) across American and Chinese samples. Results based on the mean and covariance structure analyses supported configural invariance, metric invariance and scalar invariance across groups. Latent means analyses revealed that American sample had significantly higher mean scores on task and ego orientations than the Chinese sample. The findings suggest that the TEOSQ is a valid and reliable instrument in assessing achievement motivation across these two diverse populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human social interaction is often intermittent. Two acquainted persons can have extended periods without social interaction punctuated by periods of repeated interaction. In this case, the repeated interaction can be characterized by a seed initiative by either of the persons and a number of follow-up interactions. The tendency to initiate social interaction plays an important role in the formation of social networks and is in general not symmetric between persons. In this paper, we study the dynamics of initiative by analysing and modeling a detailed call and text message network sampled from a group of 700 individuals. We show that in an average relationship between two individuals, one part is almost twice as likely to initiate communication compared to the other part. The asymmetry has social consequences and ultimately might lead to the discontinuation of a relationship. We explain the observed asymmetry by a positive feedback mechanism where individuals already taking initiative are more likely to take initiative in the future. In general, people with many initiatives receive attention from a broader spectrum of friends than people with few initiatives. Lastly, we compare the likelihood of taking initiative with the basic personality traits of the five factor model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we have captured an underlying mechanism of emergence of collective panic in pedestrian evacuations by using a modification of the lattice-gas model. We classify the motion of pedestrians into two modes according to their moods. One is gentle (mode I), the other is flustered (mode II). First, to research the cause for crowd, we fix the motion modes of pedestrians and increase the proportion of pedestrians with motion mode II (ρII). The simulation results show that the pedestrians with motion mode II are lack of evacuation efficiency and cause more casualties. Further, we use the SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) model to describe the spreading of the panic mood. The system can be in the high-mix state when the infection probability λ is greater than a fuzzy threshold. In addition, the distances S from wounded people to the exit are researched, the number of wounded people gets maximum at the internal S = 5 ∼ 10, which is independent of ρII and λ. This research can help us to understand and prevent the emergence of collective panic and reduce wounds in the real evacuation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]