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As social issues like climate change become increasingly salient, digital traces left by scholarly documents can be used to assess their reach outside of academia. Our research examine who shared climate change research papers on Twitter by looking at the expressions used in profile descriptions. We categorized users in eight categories (academia, communication, political, professional, personal, organization, bots and publishers) associated to specific expressions. Results indicate how diverse publics may be represented in the communication of scholarly documents on Twitter. Supplementing our word detection analysis with qualitative assessments of the results, we highlight how the presence of unique or multiple categorizations in textual Twitter descriptions provides evidence of the publics of research in specific contexts. Our results show a more substantial communication by academics and organizations for papers published in 2016, whereas the general public comparatively participated more in 2015. Overall, there is significant participation of publics outside of academia in the communication of climate change research articles on Twitter, although the extent to which these publics participate varies between individual papers. This means that papers circulate in specific communities which need to be assessed to understand the reach of research on social media. Furthermore, the flexibility of our method provide means for research assessment that consider the contextuality and plurality of publics involved on Twitter., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The action required to stem the environmental and social implications of climate change depends crucially on how humankind shapes technology, economy, lifestyle and policy. With transport CO2 emissions accounting for about a quarter of the total, we examine the contribution of CO2 output by scientific travel. Thankfully for the reputation of the scientific community, CO2 emissions associated with the trips required to present a paper at a scientific conference account for just 0.003% of the yearly total. However, with CO2 emissions for a single conference trip amounting to 7% of an average individual's total CO2 emissions, scientists should lead by example by demonstrating leadership in addressing the issue.

Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits.

Climate change is an ongoing topic in nearly all areas of society since many years. A discussion of climate change without referring to scientific results is not imaginable. This is especially the case for policies since action on the macro scale is required to avoid costly consequences for society. In this study, we deal with the question of how research on climate change and policy are connected. In 2019, the new Overton database of policy documents was released including links to research papers that are cited by policy documents. The use of results and recommendations from research on climate change might be reflected in citations of scientific papers in policy documents. Although we suspect a lot of uncertainty related to the coverage of policy documents in Overton, there seems to be an impact of international climate policy cycles on policy document publication. We observe local peaks in climate policy documents around major decisions in international climate diplomacy. Our results point out that IGOs and think tanks–with a focus on climate change–have published more climate change policy documents than expected. We found that climate change papers that are cited in climate change policy documents received significantly more citations on average than climate change papers that are not cited in these documents. Both areas of society (science and policy) focus on similar climate change research fields: biology, earth sciences, engineering, and disease sciences. Based on these and other empirical results in this study, we propose a simple model of policy impact considering a chain of different document types: The chain starts with scientific assessment reports (systematic reviews) that lead via science communication documents (policy briefs, policy reports or plain language summaries) and government reports to legislative documents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5–6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top—the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed photovoltaic (DPV) is a promising solution to climate change. However, the widespread adoption of DPV faces challenges, such as high upfront costs, regulatory barriers, and market uncertainty. Addressing these barriers requires coordinating the interests of stakeholders in the promotion of DPV. Therefore, this paper constructs a three-party evolutionary game model in a social network with the government, investment companies and residents as the main subjects and examines the influence of different subjects' behavioral strategies on the promotion of DPV under the social learning mechanism. The results show that: (1) In the game equilibrium, both the government and residents hold a positive attitude towards the promotion of DPV; (2) Companies will obtain most of the subsidies through market power and information differences, resulting in the increase of government subsidies that do not always benefit residents; (3) The increase of energy consumption and pollution prevention costs can promote companies' investment in DPV; (4) The increase of environmental protection taxes to a certain extent helps companies to take responsibility for promoting DPV, reducing the pressure on the government to promote it and increasing residents' income. This study provides insights into the sustainable development of DPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global climate change, rainstorm and flood disasters have become the most serious cataclysm. Under the circumstances of an increasingly severe risk situation, it is necessary to enhance urban disaster resilience. Based on the disaster resilience process of prevention, absorption, and enhancement, and considering the safety factors such as personnel, facility, environment and management, this paper forms a dual dimension of the urban disaster resilience assessment model covering the key elements of urban disaster response and the core capacity of urban disaster recovery. Furthermore, if taking into account the characteristics of rainstorm and flood disasters, the paper screens the key indicators to build up an assessment index system of an urban rainstorm and flood disaster. The practical application was implemented in Beijing to have an assessment of the ability to recover from rainstorm and flood disasters in all districts of Beijing. And then, some pertinent suggestions for enhancing the resilience of Beijing to rainstorm and flood disasters were proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the long-term and short-run causative relationship among environmental sustainability, energy efficiency, renewable energy and carbon emissions from all over sources (coal, oil and fossil fuels) and sector wise division (heat and power, transportation, residential, manufacturing and other sectors. The empirical evidence presented in this study is derived from a balanced panel dataset spanning the annual periods from 2000 to 2021. The dataset specifically focuses on a selection of BRI Countries. The Kao test demonstrates the presence of cointegration across variables such as carbon dioxide emissions, environmental suitability, energy efficiency and renewable energy. The Panel Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model indicates a statistically significant positive association between the environmental sustainability and disaggregated CO2 emissions over a long-term period. The study found a positive relationship between disaggregated CO2 emissions and environmental sustainability and energy efficiency, with renewable energy sources reducing emissions. It suggests a need for a structural transition from an energy-intensive economy to a decarbonized one, with sectors like heat and power positively impacting sustainability. Implementing measures to reduce emissions is crucial for tackling climate change., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Meng et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The long-standing development pattern dominated by international circulation makes China face the risk of "low-end lock-in" and "being decoupling". In addition, the current global climate change and environmental crisis are becoming increasingly severe, coupled with the COVID-19 impact. Chinese enterprises must actively build a green development system for domestic industries in a mutually reinforcing manner in the context of the domestic general circulation, in order to adapt to the new dual circulation environment as soon as possible. This paper analyzes the specific coupling and coordination relationship between the two systems based on the relevant data of China's three major industries from 2008–2014 using Index DEA, entropy value method, gray correlation analysis and coupling coordination model. The results of the study show that: the two systems of dual circulation pattern and industrial green development have a strong correlation and basically present a coupling relationship, but within the industry, there is a problem of the collapse of the tertiary industry. In terms of the type of coupling, the domestic and international circulation in general gradually present the green development leading state, except for the primary industrial segment of the international circulation. On the whole, the coupling quality of the two systems needs to be further improved. Based on this, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: (1) coordinate the internal and external development of the industry; (2) take innovation as the driving force to promote the green transformation of industries; (3) take green sharing as the goal to strengthen the policy orientation of green development; (4) take the opportunity of mutual promotion of dual circulation to stabilize the steady state of green development coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global food security basically depends on potential yields of staple grain crops worldwide, especially under climate change. However, most scholars use various models of production function in which climatic factors are often considered to estimate crop yield mostly at local or regional level. Therefore, in this paper: Potential yields of rice, wheat, maize and soybean worldwide by 2030 are projected creatively using Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average and Trend Regressed (ARIMA-TR) model in which actual yields in recent two years are used for testing the reliability of projection and Gray System (GS) model for validating the test; Especially individual impacts of climate change on the productions of rice, wheat, maize and soybean worldwide since 1961 are analyzed by using unary regression model in which global mean temperature and land precipitation are independent variable while the yield of crop being dependent one, respectively. Results show that: by 2030, the ratio between average and top yields of world rice is projected to be 50.6% increasing, while those of world wheat, world maize and world soybean are projected to be 38.0% increasing, 14.7% decreasing and 72.5% increasing, respectively. Since 1961 global warming has exerted a negative impact on average yield of world rice less than on its top, a positive effect on average yield of world wheat while a negative impact on its top, a positive effect on average yield of world maize less than on its top, and a positive influence on average yield of world soybean while a negative one on its top, which might be slightly mitigated by 'Carbon Peak' target. The fluctuation of global rainfall contributes to the productions of these crops much less than global warming during same period. Our findings indicate that: to improve global production of four staple grain crops by 2030, the priorities of input should be given to either rice or wheat in both high and low yield countries, whereas to maize in high yield countries and to soybean in low yield countries. These insights highlight some difference from previous studies, and provide academia with innovative comprehension and policy-decision makers with supportive information on sustainable production of these four staple grain crops for global food security under climate change in the future., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Cai et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Climate change-induced pan-financial market and the contagion of systemic financial risks are becoming important issues in the financial sector. The paper measures the temperature difference in terms of the degree and direction of deviation of the actual temperature relative to the average temperature of the same historical period. Based on the high-dimensional time-series variable LASSO-VAR-DY framework, we construct a pan-financial market volatility correlation network consisting of 112 Chinese listed companies in banking, insurance, securities, real estate, traditional energy, and new energy, use eigenvector centrality to measure the systematic risk of each firm, and then empirically test the effect of temperature difference on systematic risk under pan-financial market scenario. The results of the study show that (ⅰ) There is a significant difference among the systemic risk of financial sectors such as banking, insurance, and securities in the financial market pan-financial market scenario and the systemic risk when the financial market pan-financial market is not taken into account;(ⅱ) Higher temperature significantly exacerbates systemic financial risk, while colder temperature significantly mitigates systemic risk, but both have an asymmetric effect on systemic risk, and there is sectoral heterogeneity.(ⅲ) From the dynamic evolutionary characteristics, there are significant differences in the response of systemic financial risk to positive and negative temperature shocks;(iv) The results of the systemic risk variance decomposition indicate that the temperature change contributes more to the variance of systemic risk in the banking and securities sectors in pan-financial market;(ⅴ) The contagion source of financial systemic risk shows an obvious path of leaping and changing characteristics, and the contagion source of systemic risk (source of impact) shows the evolution law of "bank → real estate → new energy → temperature difference," which means that the temperature difference has become the contagion source of systemic financial risk. This study provides a reference for preventing and resolving systemic risks under pan-financial market scenario and provides a basis for improving the current macroprudential regulatory framework., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Jia, Du. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Individuals' sensitivity to climate hazards is a central component of their vulnerability to climate change. In this paper, we introduce and outline the utility of a new intraindividual variability construct, affective sensitivity to air pollution (ASAP)–defined as the extent to which an individual's affective states fluctuate in accordance with daily changes in air quality. As such, ASAP pushes beyond examination of differences in individuals' exposures to air pollution to examination of differences in individuals' sensitivities to air pollution. Building on known associations between air pollution exposure and adverse mental health outcomes, we empirically illustrate how application of Bayesian multilevel models to intensive repeated measures data obtained in an experience sampling study (N = 150) over one year can be used to examine whether and how individuals' daily affective states fluctuate with the daily concentrations of outdoor air pollution in their county. Results indicate construct viability, as we found substantial interindividual differences in ASAP for both affect arousal and affect valence. This suggests that repeated measures of individuals' day-to-day affect provides a new way of measuring their sensitivity to climate change. In addition to contributing to discourse around climate vulnerability, the intraindividual variability construct and methodology proposed here can help better integrate affect and mental health in climate adaptation policies, plans, and programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is an ecologically sensitive, cost-effective, and locally adaptive climate adaptation strategy to strengthen the climate resilience of vulnerable communities. While many studies on EbA have been conducted in rural and mountainous regions or within the natural sciences realm, there is a lack of comprehensive research that assesses how urban EbA measures have been incorporated into existing policies and plans in Global South, including in Nepal. Ecosystem-based adaptation is in the early stages of its establishment as a fundamental component to address climate adaptation and sustainable development in urban environments. Accordingly, effective integration strategies, challenges, potential focal areas, and entry points have yet to be extensively studied. To address the literature gap, this paper analyses the types of EbA interventions and the extent of urban EbA integration within Nepal's climate, urban, and sectoral policies and plans. Direct content analysis and a qualitative scoring system were used to evaluate the plan components and assess the level of EbA integration. The findings indicate that the policies and plans recognise the importance of conserving, enhancing, and managing ecosystems for climate change adaptation, and EbA measures are mainly included in action-oriented sections. However, the results also reveal inadequate EbA integration, particularly in the information base, vision and objectives, and implementation aspects. The implementation component notably lacks comprehensive provisions for budget allocation, responsible authorities, definite timelines, and clear roadmaps. The breakdown of EbA integration in the policies and plans suggests that climate and urban plans substantially integrate urban EbA measures, but discrepancies exist with climate and urban policies and sectoral policies and plans. These findings collectively emphasise a pressing need to enhance the recognition and integration of urban EbA measures within policy frameworks with a view towards strengthening climate resilience and mitigating climate-related hazards in urban environments., Competing Interests: The author has declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Tshering Ongmu Sherpa. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Exploring the complex relationship between population change and surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect has important practical significance for the ecological transformation development of shrinking cities in the context of the prevalence of urban shrinkage and the global climate change. This paper compares the population change and SUHI effect between population shrinking region (Northeast Region, NR) and population growing region (Yangtze River Delta, YRD) in China, and explores their differences in driving mechanisms, using GIS spatial analysis and Geodetector model. Our results indicated that there are significant differences in population changes and SUHI intensity between these two regions. About 72.22% of the cities in the NR were shrinking, while their SUHI intensities increased by an average of 1.69°C. On the contrary, the urban population in the YRD shows a linear growth trend, while their SUHI intensities decreased by 0.11°C on average. The results of bivariate Moran's I index also indicated that the spatial correlation between the urban population changes and the SUHI intensity changes are not significant in the above regions. Furthermore, there are significant differences in the primary drivers of SUHI variations between these two regions. In the NR, underlying surface changes, including the changes of green coverage and built-up areas, are the most important driving factors. However, atmospheric environment changes, such as carbon dioxide emission and sulfur dioxide emission, are the key drivers in the YRD. Northam's theory of three-stage urbanization and environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis are powerful to explain these differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contrails are line-shaped clouds formed in the exhaust of aircraft engines that significantly contribute to global warming. This paper confidently proposes integrating advanced image segmentation techniques to identify and monitor aircraft contrails to address the challenges associated with climate change. We propose the SegX-Net architecture, a highly efficient and lightweight model that combines the DeepLabV3+, upgraded, and ResNet-101 architectures to achieve superior segmentation accuracy. We evaluated the performance of our model on a comprehensive dataset from Google research and rigorously measured its efficacy with metrics such as IoU, F1 score, Sensitivity and Dice Coefficient. Our results demonstrate that our enhancements have significantly improved the efficacy of the SegX-Net model, with an outstanding IoU score of 98.86% and an impressive F1 score of 99.47%. These results unequivocally demonstrate the potential of image segmentation methods to effectively address and mitigate the impact of air conflict on global warming. Using our proposed SegX-Net architecture, stakeholders in the aviation industry can confidently monitor and mitigate the impact of aircraft shrinkage on the environment, significantly contributing to the global fight against climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A main objective of this paper is to provide the first model of how climate change, working through sexual selection, could have led to dramatic increases in hominin brain size, and presumably intelligence, in the Middle Pleistocene. The model is built using core elements from the field of family economics, including assortative mating and specialization and complementarities between mates. The main assumptions are that family public goods (e.g., conversation, shelter, fire) were particularly cognitively intensive to produce and became increasingly important for child survival during glacial phases. Intermediate climates (e.g., not the depths of severe glacial phases) create the largest gains from specialization, encouraging negative assortative mating. In contrast, severe glacial phases encourage positive assortative mating because of the rising importance of family public goods. One testable hypothesis is that absence of severe glacial phases should have led to stasis in brain size. Two other testable hypotheses are that severe glacial phases should have led to speciation events, as well as increases in brain size. The evidence shows that there was a million-year stasis in cranial size prior to the start of the severe glacial phases. This stasis is broken by a speciation event (Homo heidelbergensis), with the oldest fossil evidence dated near the close of the first severe glacial phase. In the next 300 kyr, there are two additional severe glacial phases, accompanied by considerable increases in cranial capacity. The last speciation event is Homo sapiens, with the earliest fossils dated near the end of the last of these two glacial phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science is a research practice that relies on public contributions of data. The strong recognition of its educational value combined with the need for novel methods to handle subsequent large and complex data sets raises the question: Is citizen science effective at science? A quantitative assessment of the contributions of citizen science for its core purpose – scientific research – is lacking. We examined the contribution of citizen science to a review paper by ornithologists in which they formulated ten central claims about the impact of climate change on avian migration. Citizen science was never explicitly mentioned in the review article. For each of the claims, these ornithologists scored their opinions about the amount of research effort invested in each claim and how strongly the claim was supported by evidence. This allowed us to also determine whether their trust in claims was, unwittingly or not, related to the degree to which the claims relied primarily on data generated by citizen scientists. We found that papers based on citizen science constituted between 24 and 77% of the references backing each claim, with no evidence of a mistrust of claims that relied heavily on citizen-science data. We reveal that many of these papers may not easily be recognized as drawing upon volunteer contributions, as the search terms “citizen science” and “volunteer” would have overlooked the majority of the studies that back the ten claims about birds and climate change. Our results suggest that the significance of citizen science to global research, an endeavor that is reliant on long-term information at large spatial scales, might be far greater than is readily perceived. To better understand and track the contributions of citizen science in the future, we urge researchers to use the keyword “citizen science” in papers that draw on efforts of non-professionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alaska is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. Coincidentally, the state has also experienced dramatic impacts of climate change as it is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the United States. Through mechanisms such as permafrost thaw, water table fluctuation, and melting of sea ice and glaciers, climatic-driven changes to the natural and built-environment influence the seismic response of infrastructure systems. This paper discusses the challenges and needs posed by earthquake hazards and climate change to Alaska's infrastructure and built environment, drawing on the contributions of researchers and decision-makers in interviews and a workshop. It outlines policy, mitigation, and adaptation areas meriting further attention to improve the seismic resilience of Alaska's built environment from the perspectives of engineering and complementary coupled human-environmental systems., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Turner et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Climate change is one of the most relevant challenges that the world has to deal with. Studies that aim to understand the behavior of environmental and atmospheric variables and the way they relate to each other can provide helpful insights into how the climate is changing. However, such studies are complex and rarely found in the literature, especially in dealing with data from the Brazilian territory. In this paper, we analyze four environmental and atmospheric variables, namely, wind speed, radiation, temperature, and humidity, measured in 27 Weather Stations (the capital of each of the 26 Brazilian states plus the federal district). We use the detrended fluctuation analysis to evaluate the statistical self-affinity of the time series, as well as the cross-correlation coefficient ρDCCA to quantify the long-range cross-correlation between stations, and a network analysis that considers the top 10% ρDCCA values to represent the cross-correlations between stations better. The methodology used in this paper represents a step forward in the field of hybrid methodologies, combining time series and network analysis that can be applied to other regions, other environmental variables, and also to other fields of research. The application results are of great importance to better understand the behavior of environmental and atmospheric variables in the Brazilian territory and to provide helpful insights about climate change and renewable energy production., Competing Interests: As described in the manuscript itself, the authors declare that there are no conflicting interests., (Copyright: © 2023 Oliveira Filho et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Deployment of solar photovoltaic panels are significantly rising to tackle adverse effects of climate change however, factors affecting output need to be categorized in addition to latitude angle and space. It is important to consider the atmospheric impact which can drastically change output power of solar panels. This study covers dust accumulation of soil, sand and ash at variable weights to foresee its effects on panel power output. Mixtures of these particles at multiple constituents were also analyzed. Experimental results indicated that clean panel gives maximum power output of 21.37W and exergy efficiency of 7.96% whereas ash accumulation showed worst results of 2.88W power output and 1.07% exergy efficiency at 700W/m2 and 50g dust accumulation. Other parameters like energy destruction, exergy losses and sustainability index were also analyzed. Trends have been illustrated in graphs along with the change in solar intensity and dust accumulations., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright: © 2023 Khan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The uncertainty of climate change's impacts hinders adaptation actions, particularly micro-scale urban design interventions. This paper proposes a sixfold urban design framework to assess and enhance the resilience of urban form to climate change, where urban form refers to the patterns of streets, buildings, and land uses. The framework is then applied to Long Bay in Negril, Jamaica-a coastal area that incorporates the complex interactions between urbanization and a highly vulnerable socio-ecological system to climate change-related hazards, primarily sea-level rise. Empirical evidence from 19 in-depth interviews with planning and design professionals and development actors, in situ observations, and morphological analyses reveal that Long Bay's current adaptation strategies heavily rely on bounce-back resilience measures that predominantly consider the impacts of extreme climatic events rather than slow-onset ones. Such strategies abet current tourism-driven development patterns while overlooking Long Bay's inherent abilities for generative transformation and incremental changes to meet climatic uncertainty. Instead, this study's findings highlight how generative urban form transformation would better equip Long Bay to cope with future uncertainty-climatic or other., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Dhar, Khirfan. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Past research has stressed the role of age and generation in climate change discourse, worries, and willingness to act. Therefore, the present paper aimed to examine the role of chronological age (as an arbitrary factor, which represents ageism) in lay people's climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions. Two experiments in different countries, Australia and Israel, were conducted for this purpose. The first study examined the impact of the age of the speaker, who provides information about the climate crisis and the second examined the impact of the age of the group being blamed for the situation. Outcome variables included perceived responsibility and motivation for the current climate situation in study 1 and perceived climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions in study 2. In study 1 (n = 250, Australia), the age of the speaker, a climate activist, varied randomly to test the hypothesis that a younger activist would be more influential and increase motivation and responsibility to act compared to an older activist. In study 2 (n = 179, Israel), the age (young vs. old) of the group identified as being responsible for the climate crisis varied randomly, to test the hypothesis that people would be more willing to identify older people as being responsible for the current climate situation, and this would impact climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions. Both studies resulted in null effects. Additionally, there was no interaction between the age of the respondent and the age of the source of the message or the age group being blamed by the message. The present study has failed to show that strategies that emphasize intergenerational conflict and ageism impact people's attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions towards the current climate situation. This possibly can serve as an instigator for strategies that emphasize intergenerational solidarity, rather than conflict, as a guiding principle in future campaigns that advocate climate change adaptation and mitigation measures., Competing Interests: No authors have competing interests., (Copyright: © 2023 Ayalon, Roy. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The humans of modern society are enjoying the luxuries and comforts today but future generations will be facing a more polluted environment and scarcity of natural resources. So the effects of global warming and climatic changes are a major policy concern nowadays around the world. The majority of the literature treats the Carbon Dioxide emissions as an indicator of environmental deterioration but this paper considers the environmental performance index as an indicator of environment. This paper addresses the role of institutional reforms for environmental performance that is hardly discussed in the earlier literature. It is argued that a novel approach of institutional reforms can provide some useful insights for environmental performance in developing countries. There is wide agreement that institutional quality is crucial for economic sustainability but rarely focused to explore the impacts of institutional reforms on environmental performance. The institutional reforms are generally divided into two categories; economic and political reforms. This paper investigated the impact of each category of institutional reforms for environmental performance by using panel data of 122 developing economies for a period of 1996–2020. Difference in differences technique is applied to determine the impact of each category of reforms on the environment. It is found that economic and political reforms significantly contribute to protecting the environment in developing countries, and it will be a good policy option to reform the economic and political institutions to preserve the environment in these countries along with sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With their rich Late Neolithic to Early Bronze Age archives, the Circumharz region, the Czech Republic/Lower Austria region, and the Northern Alpine Foreland are well-suited for research on potential links between human activities and climate fluctuations of this period with pronounced archaeological changes. In this paper, we reconstruct the rate and density of the available 14C data from 5500 to 3500 calBP (3550–1550 BCE). We ask to what extent population patterns varied over time and space, and whether fluctuations in human populations and their activities varied with local/regional climate changes. To answer these questions, we have compiled an extensive list of published radiocarbon dates and created 14C sum calibrations for each region. We also compare population dynamics with local and regional palaeoclimate records derived from high-resolution speleothems. At the regional scale, the results suggest a causal relationship between regional climate and population trends. Climate and associated environmental changes were thus at least partly responsible for demographic trends. These results also allow us to question the motivation for the construction of so-called "Early Bronze Age princely tombs" in the Circumharz region during a period of population decline. Among other things, it can be argued that the upper echelons of society may have benefited from trade relations. However, this process was accompanied by ecological stress, a cooling of the winter climate, a decline in the total population and an increase in social inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh has been ranked as one of the world's top countries affected by climate change, particularly in terms of agricultural crop sector. The purpose of this study is to identify spatial and temporal changes and trends in long-term climate at local and national scales, as well as their implications for rice yield. In this study, Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests were used to detect significant trends and the magnitude of changes in temperature and rainfall. The temperature and rainfall data observed and recorded at 35 meteorological stations in Bangladesh over 65-years in the time span between the years 1949 and 2013 have been used to detect these changes and trends of variation. The results show that mean annual Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax have increased significantly by 0.13°C, 0.13°C, and 0.13°C/decade, respectively. The most significant increasing trend in seasonal temperatures for the respective Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax was 0.18°C per decade (post-monsoon), 0.18°C/decade (winter), and 0.23°C/decade (post-monsoon), respectively. Furthermore, the mean annual and pre-monsoon rainfall showed a significant increasing trend at a rate of 4.20 mm and 1.35 mm/year, respectively. This paper also evaluates climate variability impacts on three major rice crops, Aus, Aman, and Boro during 1970–2013. The results suggest that crop yield variability can be explained by climate variability during Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons by 33, 25, and 16%, respectively. Maximum temperature significantly affected the Aus and Aman crop yield, whereas rainfall significantly affected all rice crops' yield. This study sheds light on sustainable agriculture in the context of climate change, which all relevant authorities should investigate in order to examine climate-resilient, high-yield crop cultivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal knowledge is essential for conservation management, and demand is growing. But are we accumulating dispersal knowledge at a pace that can meet the demand? To answer this question we tested for changes in dispersal data collection and use over time. Our systematic review of 655 conservation-related publications compared five topics: climate change, habitat restoration, population viability analysis, land planning (systematic conservation planning) and invasive species. We analysed temporal changes in the: (i) questions asked by dispersal-related research; (ii) methods used to study dispersal; (iii) the quality of dispersal data; (iv) extent that dispersal knowledge is lacking, and; (v) likely consequences of limited dispersal knowledge. Research questions have changed little over time; the same problems examined in the 1990s are still being addressed. The most common methods used to study dispersal were occupancy data, expert opinion and modelling, which often provided indirect, low quality information about dispersal. Although use of genetics for estimating dispersal has increased, new ecological and genetic methods for measuring dispersal are not yet widely adopted. Almost half of the papers identified knowledge gaps related to dispersal. Limited dispersal knowledge often made it impossible to discover ecological processes or compromised conservation outcomes. The quality of dispersal data used in climate change research has increased since the 1990s. In comparison, restoration ecology inadequately addresses large-scale process, whilst the gap between knowledge accumulation and growth in applications may be increasing in land planning. To overcome apparent stagnation in collection and use of dispersal knowledge, researchers need to: (i) improve the quality of available data using new approaches; (ii) understand the complementarities of different methods and; (iii) define the value of different kinds of dispersal information for supporting management decisions. Ambitious, multi-disciplinary research programs studying many species are critical for advancing dispersal research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health care has significant environmental impact. We performed a scoping review to map what is known about the environmental impact of health care for musculoskeletal conditions. Methods: We included published papers of any design that measured or discussed environmental impact of health care or health support services for any musculoskeletal condition in terms of climate change or global warming (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions it produces). We searched MEDLINE and Embase from inception to 2 May 2022 using keywords for environmental health and musculoskeletal conditions, and performed keyword searches using Google and Google Scholar. Two independent reviewers screened studies. One author independently charted data, verified by a second author. A narrative synthesis was performed. Results: Of 12,302 publications screened and 73 identified from other searches, 122 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, and 49 were included (published 1994 to 2022). Of 24 original research studies, 11 measured environmental impact relating to climate change in orthopaedics (n = 10), and medical aids for the knee (n = 1), one measured energy expenditure of laminar versus turbulent airflow ventilation systems in operating rooms during simulated hip replacements and 12 measured waste associated with orthopaedic surgery but did not relate waste to greenhouse gas emissions or environmental effects. Twenty-one editorials described a need to reduce environmental impact of orthopaedic surgery (n = 9), physiotherapy (n = 9), podiatry (n = 2) or occupational therapy (n = 1). Four narrative reviews discussed sustainability relating to hand surgery (n = 2), orthopaedic surgery (n = 1) and orthopaedic implants (n = 1). Conclusion: Despite an established link between health care and greenhouse gas emissions we found limited empirical data estimating the impact of musculoskeletal health care on the environment. These data are needed to determine whether actions to lower the carbon footprint of musculoskeletal health care should be a priority and to identify those aspects of care that should be prioritised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Without fundamentally altering how humans generate and utilise energy, there is no effective strategy to safeguard the environment. The motivation behind this study was to analyse the effectiveness of renewable energy in addressing climate change, as it is one of the most pressing global issues. This study involved the analysis of panel data covering 138 nations over a 27 year period, from 1995 to 2021, making it the latest addition to the existing literature. We examined the extent of the impact of renewable energy on carbon dioxide over time using panel, linear, and non-linear regression approaches. The results of our analysis, revealed that the majority of countries with the exception of Canada, exhibited a downward trend, underscoring the potential of increasing renewable energy consumption as an effective method to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and combat climate change. Furthermore, to reduce emissions and combat climate change, it is advisable for nations with the highest carbon dioxide emissions to adopt and successfully transition to renewable energy sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, climate change in the Jinping area is investigated. The climate change trend in the Jinping area is studied by plotting the porosity value of the carbonate rocks as a curve. By comparing the curve established using the climate change data from published articles, it is found that the B value curve obtained using the saddle line is the closest to the curve established using the climate change data from published articles. This shows that the carbonate porosity in the Jinping area obtained using an image analysis technique can be used for climate change research., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Kuang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Long considered on the margins, far from the major cultural traditions, the Sechura Desert is situated at the crossroads between the cultures of southern Ecuador and those of the northern Peruvian coast and preserves a large number of varied archaeological sites. Despite this evidence, little is known about the societies that inhabited this region during the Holocene. Exposed to natural hazards, including El Niño events, and to major climatic changes, they were able to adapt and exploit the scarce resources that this extreme environment offered them. Because of this rich history, we have been conducting archaeological research in this region since 2012 in order to clarify the dynamics of human occupation and their links with climate oscillations and environmental changes. This paper present the results of a multidisciplinary study of Huaca Grande, a mound located on Nunura Bay, 300 m from the Pacific Ocean. The nature of the human occupations at Huaca Grande was varied, and several adjustments occurred over time. The subsistence economy was based mainly on local marine resources and a continual use of terrestrial vegetal resources. However, a major change occurred in the more recent occupations, with the apparition of non-local resources (maize and cotton) indicating that Huaca Grande was connected to trade networks. The results show two main phases of occupation separated by a long abandonment (mid-5th century CE to mid-7th century CE and mid-13th century to mid-15th century CE). The occupation of the site appears to have been influenced by changes in the local climate and by extreme El Niño events. Our results highlight the great adaptability of these human groups over the span of a millennium and their capacity to react to the climatic changes and hazards that characterise this region., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Villa et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Human responses to climate change have long been at the heart of discussions of past economic, social, and political change in the Nile Valley of northeastern Africa. Following the arrival of Neolithic groups in the 6th millennium BCE, the Northern Dongola Reach of Upper Nubia witnessed a cultural florescence manifested through elaborate funerary traditions. However, despite the wealth of archaeological data available from funerary contexts, including evidence for domesticated animals and plants as grave goods, the paucity of stratified habitation contexts hinders interpretation of local subsistence trajectories. While it is recognised archaeologically that, against the backdrop of increasing environmental deterioration, the importance of agriculture based on Southwest Asian winter cereals increased throughout the Kerma period (2500-1450 BCE), the contribution of domesticated cereals to earlier Neolithic herding economies remains unclear. This paper presents direct dietary data from a total of 55 Middle Neolithic and Kerma period individuals from Kadruka 21 and Kadruka 1. Microbotanical data obtained from human dental calculus and grave sediments are integrated with human and faunal stable isotopes to explore changes in dietary breadth over time. The combined results demonstrate the consumption of wild plant species, including C4 wetland adapted grasses, by Middle Neolithic individuals at Kadruka 1. Despite existing evidence for domesticated barley in associated graves, the results obtained in this study provide no clear evidence for the routine consumption of domesticated cereals by Middle Neolithic individuals. Rather, direct microparticle evidence for the consumption of Triticeae cereals is only associated with a single Kerma period individual and corresponds with an isotopic shift indicating a greater contribution of C3-derived resources to diet. These results provide evidence for Neolithic dietary flexibility in Upper Nubia through the persistence of foraging activities and support existing evidence linking increased agricultural reliance to the development of the Kerma culture., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Le Moyne et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The excessive carbon emissions not only intensify the global climate change, but also seriously restrict the sustainable development of social economy. However, improving industrial carbon emissions efficiency is the most directly effective way to reduce emissions. Therefore, accurate measurement and analysis of carbon emissions efficiency and evolution characteristics of China's industrial system is the basis for China to improve carbon emissions efficiency. Based on this, we adopted energy consumption method and input-output method to calculate and analyze the industrial carbon emissions efficiency and evolution characteristics of China from 2002 to 2015. The results show that (1) If carbon emissions from cement production are ignored and only energy-related carbon emissions are considered, the calculation results of carbon emissions efficiency of heavy industry will be overestimated about 30%. (2) Compared with 2002, China's industrial carbon emissions efficiency increased by about twice in 2015. Specifically, the optimization of carbon emissions efficiency in agriculture, construction, light industry and service industry is very obvious, which has increased by 5.65, 5.00, 4.69 and 4.68 times respectively; The optimization of carbon emissions efficiency in power sector, heavy industry, transportation and chemical industry was obvious, which increased by 2.55, 2.01, 1.86 and 1.47 times respectively; The carbon emissions efficiency of the fossil energy sector has decreased by 0.36 times. (3) The carbon emissions efficiency of various industries has significant differences. Among them, agriculture, service industry, light industry and construction industry are generally industries with higher carbon emissions efficiency, while power sector, fossil energy sector, transportation industry, chemical industry and heavy industry are generally industries with lower carbon emissions efficiency, especially power and fossil energy sectors. Based on these, this paper provides policy implications and scientific evidence for accurately improving carbon emissions efficiency from the perspective of carbon emissions efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What impact did the Roman Climate Optimum (RCO) and the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) have on the rise and fall of the Roman Empire? Our article presents an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach developed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the profitability of vineyards, olive groves, and grain farms in Southern Gaul, which were the main source of wealth in the roman period. This ABM simulates an agroecosystem model which processes potential agricultural yield values from paleoclimatic data. The model calculates the revenues made by agricultural exploitations from the sale of crops whose annual volumes vary according to climate and market prices. The potential profits made by the different agricultural exploitations are calculated by deducting from the income the operating and transportation costs. We conclude that the warm and wet climate of the Roman period may have had an extremely beneficial effect on the profitability of wine and olive farms between the 2nd century BCE and the 3rd century CE, but a more modest effect on grain production. Subsequently, there is a significant decrease in the potential profitability of farms during the Late Antique Little Ice Age (4th-7th century CE). Comparing the results of our model with archaeological data enables us to discuss the impact of these climatic fluctuations on the agricultural and economic growth, and then their subsequent recession in Southern Gaul from the beginning to the end of antiquity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate Change (CC) emanating from anthropocentric human activities is a great threat to the quality of human life and well-being worldwide. The translation of CC research evidence can play a critical role in promoting the formulation of climate-sensitive policies to equip public health systems for CC-associated disaster preparedness, response, and management. This scoping review seeks to explore knowledge translation approaches for promoting, the uptake, and use of CC research evidence in public health policy and practice. Methods: This scoping review will be conducted according to the guidelines of Arksey and O'Malley. A search strategy will be developed for published articles in PubMed, CINAHL, and Scopus databases and for grey literature in the World Health Organization, Planetary Health Alliance, and the University of the Western Cape repositories. Discussion: The proposed scoping review will gather existing evidence on the relationship between knowledge translation, CC research, and public health decision-making. This will provide insights into research and practice gaps, and recommendations will be made to ensure effective knowledge translation for CC related decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, I evaluate the impact of species distribution models (SDMs) on the current status of environmental and ecological journals by asking the question to which degree development of SDMs in the literature is related to recent changes in the impact factors of ecological journals. The hypothesis evaluated states that research fronts are likely to attract research attention and potentially drive citation patterns, with journals concentrating papers related to the research front receiving more attention and benefiting from faster increases in their impact on the ecological literature. My results indicate a positive relationship between the number of SDM related articles published in a journal and its impact factor (IF) growth during the period 2000–09. However, the percentage of SDM related papers in a journal was strongly and positively associated with the percentage of papers on climate change and statistical issues. The results support the hypothesis that global change science has been critical in the development of SDMs and that interest in climate change research in particular, rather than the usage of SDM per se, appears as an important factor behind journal IF increases in ecology and environmental sciences. Finally, our results on SDM application in global change science support the view that scientific interest rather than methodological fashion appears to be the major driver of research attraction in the scientific literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a regional dataset of change at 381 settlements for Lycia-Pamphylia in southwest Anatolia (Turkey) from volume 8 of the Tabula Imperii Byzantini-a compilation of historical toponyms and archaeological evidence. This region is rich in archaeological remains and high-quality paleo-climatic and -environmental archives. Our archaeological synthesis enables direct comparison of these datasets to discuss current hypotheses of climate impacts on historical societies. A Roman Climatic Optimum, characterized by warmer and wetter conditions, facilitating Roman expansion in the 1st-2nd centuries CE cannot be supported here, as Early Byzantine settlement did not benefit from enhanced precipitation in the 4th-6th centuries CE as often supposed. However, widespread settlement decline in a period with challenging archaeological chronologies (c. 550-650 CE) was likely caused by a "perfect storm" of environmental, climatic, seismic, pathogenic and socio-economic factors, though a shift to drier conditions from c. 460 CE appears to have preceded other factors by at least a century., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Significant progress has been made in the past few years in the development of recommendations, policies, and procedures for creating and promoting citations to data sets, software, and other research infrastructures like computing facilities. Open questions remain, however, about the extent to which referencing practices of authors of scholarly publications are changing in ways desired by these initiatives. This paper uses four focused case studies to evaluate whether research infrastructures are being increasingly identified and referenced in the research literature via persistent citable identifiers. The findings of the case studies show that references to such resources are increasing, but that the patterns of these increases are variable. In addition, the study suggests that citation practices for data sets may change more slowly than citation practices for software and research facilities, due to the inertia of existing practices for referencing the use of data. Similarly, existing practices for acknowledging computing support may slow the adoption of formal citations for computing resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a need for better understanding of countries' vulnerability and resilience to not only pandemics but also disasters, climate change, and other systemic shocks. A comprehensive characterization of vulnerability can inform efforts to improve infrastructure and guide disaster response in the future. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework for studying countries' vulnerability and resilience to incident disasters across multiple dimensions of society. To illustrate this methodology, we leverage the rich data landscape surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic to characterize observed resilience for several countries (USA, Brazil, India, Sweden, New Zealand, and Israel) as measured by pandemic impacts across a variety of social, economic, and political domains. We also assess how observed responses and outcomes (i.e., resilience) of the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with pre-pandemic characteristics or vulnerabilities, including (1) prior risk for adverse pandemic outcomes due to population density and age and (2) the systems in place prior to the pandemic that may impact the ability to respond to the crisis, including health infrastructure and economic capacity. Our work demonstrates the importance of viewing vulnerability and resilience in a multi-dimensional way, where a country's resources and outcomes related to vulnerability and resilience can differ dramatically across economic, political, and social domains. This work also highlights key gaps in our current understanding about vulnerability and resilience and a need for data-driven, context-specific assessments of disaster vulnerability in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fisheries are forecasted to shrink in the tropics due to climate change. In Vietnam, fisheries are a pro-poor economic sector and essential nutrition source; however, welfares of producers and consumers in the climate change context are not well understood. While most studies focus on the gains or losses of total products and revenues, this paper pays additional attention to the changes in surpluses of market players in the long run. A combination of the production function, demand and supply functions, and partial equilibrium analysis is employed to measure the production and welfare impacts based on time series data from 1976 to 2018 and a Vietnam household living standards survey in 2018. The results show that relative to the present, catch yield is likely to reduce 35%-45% by mid-century and 45%-80% by the end of the century. Consumers may lose their surplus of 7-9 billion USD (PPP, 2018) by 2035 and 10-18 billion USD by 2065 due to supply reduction, while producers may gain additional profit of 3.5-4.5 billion USD by 2035 and 5-9 billion USD by 2065 owing to a price increase. The research findings suggest that Vietnam could impose measures to limit capture effort, as set out in the Law of Fisheries 2017, without harming fisher welfare. The expansion of aquaculture could reduce the gap between supply and demand of wild fish to mitigate consumer welfare loss; however, this impact is still ambiguous., Competing Interests: The author has declared that no competing interests exist.

Under the context of global warming, compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) will increase and bring serious losses to society and the economy. The projection of CDHEs is of great significance for policy-making and risk assessment. In this paper, two large ensemble simulations, CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, are used to estimate the risk of extreme CDHEs under different warming scenarios in China. First, the biases of the model in the simulation of the temperature and precipitation over the China region are corrected, and the index of CDHEs is established based on a copula function. The results show that extreme CDHEs will occur more often in China with the increase in global warming and the more severe extreme CDHEs are, the greater the risk will be in the future with higher uncertainties. Events that would be attained once every 50 and 100 years in the current climate from CESM-LE (CAanESM2-LE) will be 1.2/1.6 (1.1/1.5) times and 1.3/2.3 (1.5/2.0) times more likely to occur in a 1.5°C/2.0°C warmer climate, respectively. Northwestern China will experience the greatest increase in the risk of extreme CDHEs. Extreme CDHEs expected once every 100 years in the current period over NW China are expected to occur approximately every 5 and 4 years under a 4.0°C warmer world in CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, respectively., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061–2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58–67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental footprints are indicators that can be used to estimate the impacts of diet on the environment. Since contemporary dietary practices are related to negative environmental impacts, this paper aims to describe a systematic review protocol to investigate the environmental footprints of food consumption by adults and elderly individuals worldwide. This protocol was developed based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). Search strategies and records of evidence searched in previously defined electronic databases will be defined. Original, population-based articles investigating the environmental footprints of food consumption by adults and the elderly will be included. Two independent reviewers will conduct the study selection and data extraction steps. Critical appraisal of the included studies will be based on the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. For data synthesis, a narrative synthesis and, if possible, also a meta-analysis will be performed. The systematic review produced from this protocol will provide evidence for data synthesis of the environmental impact through environmental footprints of food consumption of the adult and elderly population from different territories and the footprint assessment tools used around the world. Therefore, it is a gap that needs to be filled because knowing these impacts will be important to inform the development of public policies that encourage healthy and sustainable food in the face of climate and epidemiological changes. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021281488. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa's geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the "biomod2" library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Identifying agricultural disaster risk regions before the occurrence of climate-related disasters is critical for early mitigation planning. This paper aims to identify these regions based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the bilateral and multilateral trade network data of the World Integrated Trade Solution(WITS) and the agent-based economic model Acclimate. By applying a uniform forcing across agricultural sectors of some breadbasket regions (US, EU and China), when single and simultaneous extreme weather events occur, such as the 2018 European heatwave, production and consumption value losses and gains are calculated at regional and global levels. Comparing the FAO data sets, WITS, and Acclimate's production value losses, the results show a strong dependence of agricultural production losses on a region's output and connectivity level in the global supply and trade network. While India, Brazil, Russia, Canada, Australia, and Iran are highly vulnerable, the imposition of export restrictions to compensate for demand shortfalls makes Sub-Saharan Africa the most vulnerable region, as it is heavily dependent on agricultural imports. In addition, simultaneous extreme weather events can exacerbate the loss of value of agricultural production relative to single extreme weather events. Agricultural practices to increase production such as smart farming, increased investment in plantation agriculture, and diversification of trading partners can help mitigate future food security risks in Sub-Saharan Africa and other agricultural import-dependent regions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

This paper investigates the consequences of ignoring the clustered data structure on allometric models. Clustered data, in the form of multiple trees sampled from multiple forest stands is commonly used to develop biomass allometric models. Of 102 reviewed papers published between 2012 and 2016 that reported biomass allometric models, 84 (82%) have used a clustered sampling design. However, in as many as 80% of these, the clustered data structure was ignored, potentially violating the independence assumption in ordinary least squares methods. The consequences of ignoring clustered data structure were empirically validated using two clustered biomass datasets (of 110 and 220 trees, with the cluster size of 5 and 10 trees respectively). We showed that when Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure returned underestimated standard errors, affecting further the confidence interval and t-test results. The underestimation level depended on ICC (which shows the variance proportion that was caused by the forest stand) and on cluster size (the number of trees sampled from one forest stand). We also showed that using first-order autocorrelation tests, such as the traditional Durbin-Watson statistic, to detect the autocorrelation due to clustered structure could be misleading as the test may show lack of autocorrelation even though ICC is different from zero. In conclusion, when ICC is higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure yields over-confident biomass predictions (due to underestimated confidence interval) and/or incorrect research conclusions (due to overestimated evidence against null hypothesis in t-test). Therefore, using a modelling approach that accounts for the hierarchical structure of the data is highly recommended when any form of clustering can be identified, even if the autocorrelation is not significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local and indigenous knowledge is being transformed globally, particularly being eroded when pertaining to ecology. In many parts of the world, rural and indigenous communities are facing tremendous cultural, economic and environmental changes, which contribute to weaken their local knowledge base. In the face of profound and ongoing environmental changes, both cultural and biological diversity are likely to be severely impacted as well as local resilience capacities from this loss. In this global literature review, we analyse the drivers of various types of local and indigenous ecological knowledge transformation and assess the directionality of the reported change. Results of this analysis show a global impoverishment of local and indigenous knowledge with 77% of papers reporting the loss of knowledge driven by globalization, modernization, and market integration. The recording of this loss, however, is not symmetrical, with losses being recorded more strongly in medicinal and ethnobotanical knowledge. Persistence of knowledge (15% of the studies) occurred in studies where traditional practices were being maintained consiously and where hybrid knowledge was being produced as a resut of certain types of incentives created by economic development. This review provides some insights into local and indigenous ecological knowledge change, its causes and implications, and recommends venues for the development of replicable and comparative research. The larger implication of these results is that because of the interconnection between cultural and biological diversity, the loss of local and indigenous knowledge is likely to critically threaten effective conservation of biodiversity, particularly in community-based conservation local efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) is an arbovirus that, while it has been known to exist since the 1930's, recently had a spike in cases. This increased prevalence is particularly concerning due to the severity of the disease with 1 in 3 symptomatic patients dying. The cause of this peak is currently unknown but could be due to changes in climate, the virus itself, or host behavior. In this paper we propose a novel multi-season deterministic model of EEE spread and its stochastic counterpart. Models were parameterized using a dataset from the Florida Department of Health with sixteen years of sentinel chicken seroconversion rates. The different roles of the enzootic and bridge mosquito vectors were explored. As expected, enzootic mosquitoes like Culiseta melanura were more important for EEE persistence, while bridge vectors were implicated in the disease burden in humans. These models were used to explore hypothetical viral mutations and host behavior changes, including increased infectivity, vertical transmission, and host feeding preferences. Results showed that changes in the enzootic vector transmission increased cases among birds more drastically than equivalent changes in the bridge vector. Additionally, a 5% difference in the bridge vector's bird feeding preference can increase cumulative dead-end host infections more than 20-fold. Taken together, this suggests changes in many parts of the transmission cycle can augment cases in birds, but the bridge vectors feeding preference acts as a valve limiting the enzootic circulation from its impact on dead-end hosts, such as humans. Our what-if scenario analysis reveals and measures possible threats regarding EEE and relevant environmental changes and hypothetically suggests how to prevent potential damage to public health and the equine economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vulnerability to climate change is highly dynamic, varying between and within communities over different timescales. This paper draws upon complex adaptive systems thinking to develop an approach for capturing, understanding, and monitoring climate vulnerability in a case study from northern Canada, focusing on Inuit food systems. In the community of Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, we followed 10 hunters over a 2-year period, asking them to document their harvesting activities and discuss their lived experience of harvesting under changing environmental and societal conditions. GPS monitoring and participatory mapping sessions were used to document 23,996km of trails (n = 409), with conversational bi-weekly semi-structured interviews and secondary instrumental weather data used to contextualise climate change within a nexus of other socioeconomic, cultural, and political stressors that also affect harvesting. Our results demonstrate that climate change has considerable potential to affect harvesting activities, particularly when its impacts manifest as anomalous/extreme events. However, climate change impacts are not necessarily the most salient issues affecting harvesting on a day-to-day basis. Instead, factors relating to economics (particularly financial capital and the wage-based economy), social networks, and institutions are found to have a greater influence, either as standalone factors with cascading effects or when acting synchronously to augment the impacts of environmental change., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.