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Multilevel linear models allow flexible statistical modelling of complex data with different levels of stratification. Identifying the most appropriate model from the large set of possible candidates is a challenging problem. In the Bayesian setting, the standard approach is a comparison of models using the model evidence or the Bayes factor. Explicit expressions for these quantities are available for the simplest linear models with unrealistic priors, but in most cases, direct computation is impossible. In practice, Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches are widely used, such as sequential Monte Carlo, but it is not always clear how well such techniques perform. We present a method for estimation of the log model evidence, by an intermediate marginalisation over non-variance parameters. This reduces the dimensionality of any Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, which in turn yields more consistent estimates. The aim of this paper is to show how this framework fits together and works in practice, particularly on data with hierarchical structure. We illustrate this method on simulated multilevel data and on a popular dataset containing levels of radon in homes in the US state of Minnesota. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is an extremely contagious disease that causes great damage to the U.S. pork industry. PRRS is not subject to official control in the U.S., but most producers adopt control strategies, including vaccination. However, the PRRS virus mutates frequently, facilitating its ability to infect even vaccinated animals. In this paper we analyze how increased vaccination on sow farms reduces PRRS losses and when vaccination is profitable. We develop a SIR model to simulate the spread of an outbreak between and within swine farms located in a region of Minnesota. Then, we estimate economic losses due to PRRS and calculate the benefits of vaccination. We find that increased vaccination of sow farms increases the private profitability of vaccination, and also transmits positive externalities to farms that do not vaccinate. Although vaccination reduces industry losses, a low to moderate vaccine efficacy implies that large PRRS losses remain, even on vaccinated farms. Our approach provides useful insight into the dynamics of an endemic animal disease and the benefits of different vaccination regimens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To assess the effectiveness of an infection control protocol developed to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 at two multi-week residential summer camps in 2021. Subject and methods: Data were collected from 595 camp attendees and staff members at two wilderness camps in Northern Minnesota. Testing was undertaken in all unvaccinated campers before arrival at camp, on day 4 of camp, and in the event of respiratory symptoms. Campers were limited to cohorts during the first 4 days of camp and wore masks indoors. The number of positive COVID-19 cases measured the efficacy of the protocol. Results: The testing and cohorting protocol successfully prevented the spread of COVID-19 among campers and staff. During the first summer session, there were zero positive cases of COVID-19 among 257 campers and 127 staff. During the second summer session, compliance with the protocol limited the spread of COVID-19 to just three individuals of 266 campers and 129 staff. Maintaining cohorts at arrival limited spread from a single positive case to only two tent companions. Conclusion: The testing and cohorting protocol limited the spread of COVID-19 among residential summer wilderness campers and staff. Post-arrival testing ensured newly acquired virus was limited in spread before COVID-19 precautions were relaxed on camp day 5. A strict evidence-based cohorting protocol limited in-camp spread and allowed for a successful summer camp season. The usefulness of this protocol with an evolving pandemic, increasing vaccination rates, and virus variants could have implications for future practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chloride is a key component of salt, used in many activities such as alkali production, water treatment, and de-icing. Chloride entering surface and groundwater is a concern due to its toxicity to aquatic life and potential to degrade drinking water sources. Minnesota being a hard-water state, has a high demand for water softening. Recent research has found that home-based water softeners contribute significantly to chloride loading at municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Because of this, many WWTPs would now require water quality based effluent limits (WQBELs) to comply with the state's chloride water quality standards (WQS), unless they install chloride treatment technologies, which are limited and cost-prohibitive to most communities. A potential solution to this problem, is shifting from home-based water softening to a system where water is softened at drinking water plants, before reaching homes, i.e. centralized softening, analyzed in this paper based on its ability to address both chloride pollution and water softening needs, at reasonable cost. We estimate lifetime costs of three alternative solutions: centralized softening, home-based softening, and a Business as Usual (BAU) or baseline alternative, using annualized 20-year loan payments and Net Present Value (NPV), applied to 84 Minnesota cities with matching data on drinking water plants and WWTPs. We find that centralized softening using either Reverse Osmosis (RO) or lime-softening technologies is the more cost-effective solution, compared to the alternative of home-based softening with end-of-pipe chloride treatment, with a cost ratio in the range 1:3–1:4. Between the two centralized softening options, we find RO-softening to be the lower cost option, only slightly more costly (1.1 cost ratio) than the BAU option. Considering additional environmental and public health benefits, and cost savings associated with removal of home-based softeners, our results provide helpful information to multiple stakeholders interested in an effective solution to chloride pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing critical global health issues, such as antimicrobial resistance, infectious disease outbreaks, and natural disasters, requires strong coordination and management across sectors. The One Health approach is the integrative effort of multiple sectors working to attain optimal health for people, animals, and the environment, and is increasingly recognized by experts as a means to address complex challenges. However, practical application of the One Health approach has been challenging. The One Health Systems Mapping and Analysis Resource Toolkit (OH-SMART) introduced in this paper was designed using a multistage prototyping process to support systematic improvement in multi-sectoral coordination and collaboration to better address complex health concerns through an operational, stepwise, and practical One Health approach. To date, OH-SMART has been used to strengthen One Health systems in 17 countries and has been deployed to revise emergency response frameworks, improve antimicrobial resistance national action plans and create multi agency infectious disease collaboration protocols. OH-SMART has proven to be user friendly, robust, and capable of fostering multi-sectoral collaboration and complex system-wide problem solving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The closure of all sports facilities during the two lockdowns in Germany favoured a reduction of leisure time physical activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to compare leisure time physical activity during the 1st and 2nd lockdown and to examine exercise performance before and after resumption of exercise. Leisure time physical activity was measured by the Longitudinal Urban Cohort Ageing Study (LUCAS) functional ability index and energy expenditure in the Minnesota Leisure Time Physical Activity Questionnaire. Participants' exercise performance was extracted from a chip-controlled fitness circuit. Differences were tested for statistical significance using Friedman tests. 35 participants above 60 years were included from the Oldenburg area (20 women, 15 men, mean age and standard deviation 71±6 years). The decline in energy expenditure was higher during the 2nd lockdown (1st lockdown: Median -55.7 kcal.day-1, Q0.25−121.3 kcal.day-1, Q0.75 132.9 kcal.day-1; 2nd lockdown: Median -119.7 kcal.day-1, Q0.25−255.6 kcal.day-1, Q0.75−65.1 kcal.day-1; Friedman test: p<0.001, n = 35, W = 0.262). The time spent in the fitness circuit decreased from lockdown to lockdown as well as the number of participants exercising there. Intense activities were performed during the two lockdowns by only 7 and 3 participants, respectively, and were not resumed by two-thirds of the participants after the 2nd lockdown. During the 1st lockdown, exercise performance on resistance exercise devices increased in most of them, while it decreased by 1 to 7% during the 2nd lockdown. The lockdowns limited leisure time physical activity in older adults. This was more pronounced during the lockdown in winter 2020/2021, when participants engaged less in outdoor activities. Therefore, measures should be taken to maintain physical activity and muscle strength, especially during winter months, with a home-based training, if visiting gyms is not possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visible disruptions of appropriate food distribution for end consumers during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted calls for an urgent, renewed look at how the U.S. agri-food system is impacted by and responds to pandemics, natural disasters, and human-made crises. Previous studies suggest the COVID-19 pandemic yielded uneven impacts across agri-food supply chain segments and regions. For a rigorously comparable assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on agri-food businesses, a survey was administered from February to April 2021 to five segments of the agri-food supply chain in three study regions (California, Florida, and the two-state region of Minnesota-Wisconsin). Results (N = 870) measuring the self-reported changes in quarterly business revenue in 2020 compared to businesses' typical experience pre-COVID-19 suggest significant differences across supply chain segments and regions. In the Minnesota-Wisconsin region, restaurants took the largest hit and the upstream supply chains were relatively unaffected. In California, however, the negative impacts were felt throughout the supply chain. Two factors likely contributed to regional differences: (1) regional disparities in pandemic evolution and governance and (2) structural differences in regional agri-food systems. Regionalized and localized planning and the development of best-practices will be necessary for the U.S. agri-food system to enhance preparedness for and resilience to future pandemics, natural disasters, and human-made crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given recent and abrupt declines in the abundance of moose (Alces alces) throughout parts of Minnesota and elsewhere in North America, accurately estimating statewide population trends and demographic parameters is a high priority for their continued management and conservation. Statistical population reconstruction using integrated population models provides a flexible framework for combining information from multiple studies to produce robust estimates of population abundance, recruitment, and survival. We used this framework to combine aerial survey data and survival data from telemetry studies to recreate trends and demographics of moose in northeastern Minnesota, USA, from 2005 to 2020. Statistical population reconstruction confirmed the sharp decline in abundance from an estimated 7,841 (90% CI = 6,702–8,933) in 2009 to 3,386 (90% CI = 2,681–4,243) animals in 2013, but also indicated that abundance has remained relatively stable since then, except for a slight decline to 3,163 (90% CI = 2,403–3,718) in 2020. Subsequent stochastic projection of the population from 2021 to 2030 suggests that this modest decline will continue for the next 10 years. Both annual adult survival and per-capita recruitment (number of calves that survived to 1 year per adult female alive during the previous year) decreased substantially in years 2005 and 2019, from 0.902 (SE = 0.043) to 0.689 (SE = 0.061) and from 0.386 (SE = 0.030) to 0.303 (SE = 0.051), respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that moose abundance was more sensitive to fluctuations in adult survival than recruitment; thus, we conclude that the steep decline in 2013 was driven primarily by decreasing adult survival. Our analysis demonstrates the potential utility of using statistical population reconstruction to monitor moose population trends and to identify population declines more quickly. Future studies should focus on providing better estimates of per-capita recruitment, using pregnancy rates and calf survival, which can then be incorporated into reconstruction models to help improve estimates of population change through time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The microbial communities of lake sediments have the potential to serve as valuable bioindicators and integrators of watershed land-use and water quality; however, the relative sensitivity of these communities to physio-chemical and geographical parameters must be demonstrated at taxonomic resolutions that are feasible by current sequencing and bioinformatic approaches. The geologically diverse and lake-rich state of Minnesota (USA) is uniquely situated to address this potential because of its variability in ecological region, lake type, and watershed land-use. In this study, we selected twenty lakes with varying physio-chemical properties across four ecological regions of Minnesota. Our objectives were to (i) evaluate the diversity and composition of the bacterial community at the sediment-water interface and (ii) determine how lake location and watershed land-use impact aqueous chemistry and influence bacterial community structure. Our 16S rRNA amplicon data from lake sediment cores, at two depth intervals, data indicate that sediment communities are more likely to cluster by ecological region rather than any individual lake properties (e.g., trophic status, total phosphorous concentration, lake depth). However, composition is tied to a given lake, wherein samples from the same core were more alike than samples collected at similar depths across lakes. Our results illustrate the diversity within lake sediment microbial communities and provide insight into relationships between taxonomy, physicochemical, and geographic properties of north temperate lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2016, over 11 million individuals were admitted to prisons and jails in the United States. Because the majority of these individuals will return to the community, addressing their health needs requires coordination between community and correctional health care providers. However, few systems exist to facilitate this process and little is known about how physicians perceive and manage these transitions. Objective: The goal of this study was to characterize physicians' views on transitions both into and out of incarceration and describe how knowledge of a patient's criminal justice involvement impacts patient care plans. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted between October 2018 and May 2019 with physicians from three community clinics in Hennepin County, Minnesota. Team members used a hybrid approach of deductive and inductive coding, in which a priori codes were defined based on the interview guide while also allowing for data-driven codes to emerge. Results: Four themes emerged related to physicians' perceptions on continuity of care for patients with criminal justice involvement. Physicians identified disruptions in patient-physician relationships, barriers to accessing prescription medications, disruptions in insurance coverage, and problems with sharing medical records, as factors contributing to discontinuity of care for patients entering and exiting incarceration. These factors impacted patients differently depending on the direction of the transition. Conclusions: Our findings identified four disruptions to continuity of care that physicians viewed as key barriers to successful transitions into and out of incarceration. These disruptions are unlikely to be effectively addressed at the provider level and will require system-level changes, which Medicaid and managed care organizations could play a leading role in developing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across several decades there has been an unprecedented increase in immigration enforcement including detention and deportation. Immigration detention profoundly impacts those experiencing detention and their family members. An emerging area of research has found that immigrants experience a number of challenges which constrain and limit their decisions, choices, and options for security and integration in the United States due to social, political and structural determinants. These determinants lead to greater structural vulnerabilities among immigrants. The purpose of the current study was to illuminate the perceived vulnerabilities of detained noncitizen immigrants as they are raised and described while attending case hearings at the Bloomington, Minnesota immigration court. Through conducting a thematic analysis of notes derived from third party immigration court observers, three areas of perceived vulnerability were identified. These perceived vulnerabilities include 1) migration and motivations to migrate, 2) structural vulnerabilities (e.g., discrimination, financial insecurity, social ties and family support, stable or fixed residence, English language proficiency, health and mental health) in the US, and 3) challenges in navigating immigration detention. These findings demonstrate that noncitizen immigrants who are undergoing immigration detention are experiencing multiple intersecting vulnerabilities which profoundly impact their lives. Collaborative efforts across sectors are needed to work towards comprehensive immigration reforms including both short-term and long-term solutions to address pressing issues for noncitizens undergoing immigration detention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 was first identified in Hubei Province, China in December, 2019. Within a matter of months the virus had spread and become a global pandemic. In addition to international air travel, local travel (e.g. by passenger car) contributes to the geographic spread of COVID-19. We modify the common susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) virus spread model and investigate the extent to which short-term travel associated with driving influences the spread of the virus. We consider the case study of the US state of Minnesota, and calibrated the proposed model with travel and viral spread data. Using our modified SEIR model that considers local short-term travel, we are able to better explain the virus spread than using the long-term travel SEIR model. Short-term travel associated with driving is predicted to be a significant contributor to the historical and future spread of COVID-19. The calibrated model also predicts the proportion of infections that were detected. We find that if driving trips remain at current levels, a substantial increase in COVID-19 cases may be observed in Minnesota, while decreasing intrastate travel could help contain the virus spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the world's large Carnivores, American black bears (Ursus americanus) are the foremost conservation success story. Populations have been expanding across North America because the species is adaptable and tolerant of living near people, and because management agencies in the U.S. and Canada controlled hunting and other human-sources of mortality. As a result, human–black bear conflicts (damage to property, general nuisance, threat to human safety) have dramatically increased in some areas, making it urgently important to develop and deploy a variety of mitigation tools. Previous studies claimed that legal hunting did not directly reduce conflicts, but they did not evaluate whether hunting controlled conflicts via management of population size. Here, we compared temporal patterns of phoned-in complaints about black bears (total ~63,500) in Minnesota, USA, over 4 decades to corresponding bear population estimates: both doubled during the first decade. We also quantified natural bear foods, and found that large year-to-year fluctuations affected numbers of complaints; however, since this variation is due largely to weather, this factor cannot be managed. Complaints fell sharply when the management agency (1) shifted more responsibility for preventing and mitigating conflicts to the public; and (2) increased hunting pressure to reduce the bear population. This population reduction was more extreme than intended, however, and after hunting pressure was curtailed, population regrowth was slower than anticipated; consequently both population size and complaints remained at relatively low levels statewide for 2 decades (although with local hotspots). These long-term data indicated that conflicts can be kept in tolerable bounds by managing population size through hunting; but due to the bluntness of this instrument and deficiencies and uncertainties in monitoring and manipulating populations, it is wiser to maintain a population at a level where conflicts are socially-acceptable than try to reduce it once it is well beyond that point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The incorporation of cover crops into the maize (Zea mays L.)-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation in the U.S. upper Midwest may improve sustainability. Long, cold winters in the region make identifying successful cover crop species and management practices a challenge. Two experiments were conducted in Minnesota, USA from fall 2016 through spring 2019 to examine the effect of cover crops interseeded at four- to six-leaf collar (early-interseeded) and dent to physiological maturity (late-interseeded) on biomass and grain yield of maize. Annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) and cereal rye (Secale cereale L.) were evaluated as monocultures and in mixtures with crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum L.) and forage radish (Raphanus sativus L.). Differences in canopy cover and biomass of late-interseeded cover crops were observed at the southernmost location in 2018. Additional accumulated growing-degree days in fall 2018 did not translate into increased cover crop canopy coverage of late-interseeded cover crops. Differences in cover crop canopy cover and biomass of early-interseeded cover crops were observed by fall frost at all locations in 2017 and at the northernmost location in 2018. Cover crop canopy cover and biomass at termination before planting maize, soil moisture at maize planting as well as maize aboveground biomass and yield were not affected by spring cereal rye regrowth of cover crops late-interseeded the previous year. Similarly, early-interseeded cover crops did not affect maize aboveground biomass or yield. We attribute these results to limited cover crop growth. This highlights the potential of a variety of cover crop strategies interseeded into maize in the U.S. upper Midwest; however, efforts to fine-tuning cover crop management and weather conditions are needed to benefit from such practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Tobacco control programs and policies reduce tobacco use and prevent health and economic harms. The majority of tobacco control programs and policies in the United States are implemented at local and state levels. Yet the literature on state-level initiatives reports a limited set of outcomes. To facilitate decision-making that is increasingly focused on costs, we provide estimates of a broader set of measures of the impact of tobacco control policy, including smoking prevalence, disease events, deaths, medical costs, productivity and tobacco tax revenues, using the experience of Minnesota as an example. Methods: Using the HealthPartners Institute's ModelHealth™: Tobacco MN microsimulation, we assessed the impact of the stream of tobacco control expenditures and cigarette price increases from 1998 to 2017. We simulated 1.3 million individuals representative of the Minnesota population. Results: The simulation estimated that increased expenditures on tobacco control above 1997 levels prevented 38,400 cancer, cardiovascular, diabetes and respiratory disease events and 4,100 deaths over 20 years. Increased prices prevented 14,600 additional events and 1,700 additional deaths. Both the net increase in tax revenues and the reduction in medical costs were greater than the additional investments in tobacco control. Conclusion: Combined, the policies address both short-term and long-term goals to reduce the harms of tobacco by helping adults who wish to quit smoking and deterring youth from starting to smoke. States can pay for initial investments in tobacco control through tax increases and recoup those investments through reduced expenditures on medical care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research shows significant economic benefit if the processing sweet corn [Zea mays L. var. rugosa (or saccharata)] industry grew crowding stress tolerant (CST) hybrids at their optimum plant densities, which may exceed current plant densities by up to 14,500 plants ha-1. However, optimum plant density of individual fields varies over years and across the Upper Midwest (Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin), where processing sweet corn is concentrated. The objectives of this study were to: (1) determine the extent to which environmental and management practices affect optimum plant density and, (2) identify the most appropriate recommendation domain for making decisions on plant density. To capture spatial and temporal variability in optimum plant density, on-farm experiments were conducted at thirty fields across the states of Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin, from 2013 to 2017. Exploratory factor analysis of twelve environmental and management variables revealed two factors, one related to growing period and the other defining soil type, which explained the maximum variability observed across all the fields. These factors were then used to quantify the strength of associations with optimum plant density. Pearson's partial correlation coefficients of 'growing period' and 'soil type' with optimum plant density were low (ρ1 = -0.14 and ρ2 = -0.09, respectively) and non-significant (P = 0.47 and 0.65, respectively). To address the second objective, six candidate recommendation domain models (RDM) were developed and tested. Linear mixed effects models describing crop response to plant density were fit to each level of each candidate RDM. The difference in profitability observed at the current plant density for a field and the optimum plant density under RDM level represented the additional processor profit ($ ha-1) from a field. The RDM built around 'Production Area' (RDMPA) appears most suitable, because plant density recommendations based on RDMPA maximized processor profits as well grower returns better than other RDMs. Compared to current plant density, processor profits and grower returns increased by $448 ha-1 and $82 ha-1, respectively at plant densities under RDMPA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: 1) To compare levels of emotional symptoms and health-related quality of life between patients with heart failure and their family caregivers; and 2) to examine whether patients' and caregivers' emotional symptoms were associated with their own, as well as their partner's health-related quality of life. Method: In this cross-sectional study, 41 patients-caregiver dyads (78% male patients, aged 68.6 years; and 83% female caregivers, aged 65.8 years) completed all nine dimensions of the Brief Symptom Inventory and the Minnesota Living with Heart failure Questionnaire. Dyadic data were analysed for 6 sub-scales of the Brief Symptom Inventory, using the Actor–Partner Interdependence Model. Results: There were no statistically significant differences in emotional symptoms and health-related quality of life between patients with heart failure and their caregivers. Patients' and caregivers' emotional symptoms were associated with their own health-related quality of life. Caregivers' anxiety, phobic anxiety, obsession-compulsion, depression and hostility negatively influenced their partner's (i.e. the patient's) health-related quality of life. There were no partner effects of patients' emotional symptoms on the health-related quality of life of caregivers. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that patients may be particularly vulnerable to the emotional distress, i.e. thoughts, impulses and actions of their caregivers. It may be possible to improve patients' health-related quality of life by targeting specific detrimental emotional symptoms of caregivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial colonization can be detrimental to the integrity of metal surfaces and lead to microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC). Biocorrosion is a serious problem for aquatic and marine industries in the world. In Minnesota (USA), where this study was conducted, biocorrosion severely affects the maritime transportation industry. The anticorrosion activity of a variety of compounds, including chemical (magnesium peroxide) and biological (surfactin, capsaicin, and gramicidin) molecules were investigated as coating additives. We also evaluated a previously engineered, extremely stable, non-biocidal enzyme known to interfere in bacterial signaling, SsoPox (a quorum quenching lactonase). Experimental steel coupons were submerged in water from the Duluth Superior Harbor (DSH) for 8 weeks in the laboratory. Biocorrosion was evaluated by counting the number and the coverage of corrosion tubercles on coupons and also by ESEM imaging of the coupon surface. Three experimental coating additives significantly reduced the formation of corrosion tubercles: surfactin, magnesium peroxide and the quorum quenching lactonase by 31%, 36% and 50%, respectively. DNA sequence analysis of the V4 region of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene revealed that these decreases in corrosion were associated with significant changes in the composition of bacterial communities on the steel surfaces. These results demonstrate the potential of highly stable quorum quenching lactonases to provide a reliable, cost-effective method to treat steel structures and prevent biocorrosion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevated population levels of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman) can drastically alter forest ecosystems and negatively impact society through human interactions such as deer vehicle collisions. It is currently difficult to estimate deer populations at multiple scales ranging from stand, county, state, and regional levels. This presents a challenge as natural resource managers develop silvicultural prescriptions and forest management practices aimed at successfully regenerating tree species in the face of deer browsing. This study utilized measurements of deer browse impact from the new tree regeneration indicator developed by the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. Seedling and sapling abundance and other plot-level characteristics were analyzed across three states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes Region of the United States. Socio-environmental datasets (Lyme disease cases, deer vehicle collisions, and deer density estimates) were used in conjunction with FIA data to determine their predictive power in estimating deer browse impacts by county. Predictions from random forests models indicate that using Lyme disease case reports, the number of deer-vehicle collisions, deer density estimates, and forest inventory information correctly predicted deer browse impact 70–90% of the time. Deer-vehicle collisions per county ranked highly important in the random forests for predicting deer browse impacts in all three states. Lyme disease cases ranked high in importance for the Lake States combined and for Minnesota and Wisconsin, separately. Results show the effectiveness of predicting deer browse impacts using a suite of freely available forest inventory and other socio-environmental information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the highly transmissible nature of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), implementation of regional programs to control the disease may be critical. Because PRRS is not reported in the US, numerous voluntary regional control projects (RCPs) have been established. However, the effect of RCPs on PRRS control has not been assessed yet. This study aims to quantify the extent to which RCPs contribute to PRRS control by proposing a methodological framework to evaluate the progress of RCPs. Information collected between July 2012 and June 2015 from the Minnesota Voluntary Regional PRRS Elimination Project (RCP-N212) was used. Demography of premises (e.g. composition of farms with sows = SS and without sows = NSS) was assessed by a repeated analysis of variance. By using general linear mixed-effects models, active participation of farms enrolled in the RCP-N212, defined as the decision to share (or not to share) PRRS status, was evaluated and used as a predictor, along with other variables, to assess the PRRS trend over time. Additionally, spatial and temporal patterns of farmers’ participation and the disease dynamics were investigated. The number of farms enrolled in RCP-N212 and its geographical coverage increased, but the proportion of SS and NSS did not vary significantly over time. A significant increasing (p<0.001) trend in farmers’ decision to share PRRS status was observed, but with NSS producers less willing to report and a large variability between counties. The incidence of PRRS significantly (p<0.001) decreased, showing a negative correlation between degree of participation and occurrence of PRRS (p<0.001) and a positive correlation with farm density at the county level (p = 0.02). Despite a noted decrease in PRRS, significant spatio-temporal patterns of incidence of the disease over 3-weeks and 3-kms during the entire study period were identified. This study established a systematic approach to quantify the effect of RCPs on PRRS control. Despite an increase in number of farms enrolled in the RCP-N212, active participation is not ensured. By evaluating the effect of participation on the occurrence of PRRS, the value of sharing information among producers may be demonstrated, in turn justifying the existence of RCPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inference of past temperatures from a sedimentary pollen record depends upon the stationarity of the pollen-climate relationship. However, humans have altered vegetation independent of changes to climate, and consequently modern pollen deposition is a product of landscape disturbance and climate, which is different from the dominance of climate-derived processes in the past. This problem could cause serious signal distortion in pollen-based reconstructions. In the north-central United States, direct human impacts have strongly altered the modern vegetation and hence the pollen rain since Euro-American settlement in the mid-19th century. Using instrumental temperature data from the early 1800s from Fort Snelling (Minnesota), we assessed the signal distortion and bias introduced by using the conventional method of inferring temperature from pollen assemblages in comparison to a calibration set from pre-settlement pollen assemblages and the earliest instrumental climate data. The early post-settlement calibration set provides more accurate reconstructions of the 19th century instrumental record, with less bias, than the modern set does. When both modern and pre-industrial calibration sets are used to reconstruct past temperatures since AD 1116 from pollen counts from a varve-dated record from Lake Mina, Minnesota, the conventional inference method produces significant low-frequency (centennial-scale) signal attenuation and positive bias of 0.8-1.7°C, resulting in an overestimation of Little Ice Age temperature and likely an underestimation of the extent and rate of anthropogenic warming in this region. However, high-frequency (annual-scale) signal attenuation exists with both methods. Hence, we conclude that any past pollen spectra from before Euro-American settlement in this region should be interpreted using a pre-Euro-American settlement pollen set, paired to the earliest instrumental climate records. It remains to be explored how widespread this problem is when conventional pollen-based inference methods are used, and consequently how seriously regional manifestations of global warming have been underestimated with traditional pollen-based techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined reassembly of winning and losing tree species, species traits including shade and fire tolerance, and associated disturbance filters and forest ecosystem types due to rapid forest change in the Great Lakes region since 1850. We identified winning and losing species by changes in composition, distribution, and site factors between historical and current surveys in Minnesota’s mixed and broadleaf forests. In the Laurentian Mixed Forest, shade-intolerant aspen replaced shade-intolerant tamarack as the most dominant tree species. Fire-tolerant white pine and jack pine decreased, whereas shade-tolerant ashes, maples, and white cedar increased. In the Eastern Broadleaf Forest, fire-tolerant white oaks and red oaks decreased, while shade-tolerant ashes, American basswood, and maples increased. Tamarack, pines, and oaks have become restricted to sites with either wetter or sandier and drier soils due to increases in aspen and shade-tolerant, fire-sensitive species on mesic sites. The proportion of shade-tolerant species increased in both regions, but selective harvest reduced the applicability of functional groups alone to specify winners and losers. Harvest and existing forestry practices supported aspen dominance in mixed forests, although without aspen forestry and with fire suppression, mixed forests will transition to a greater composition of shade-tolerant species, converging to forests similar to broadleaf forests. A functional group framework provided a perspective of winning and losing species and traits, selective filters, and forest ecosystems that can be generalized to other regions, regardless of species identity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The functional diversity of a community can influence ecosystem functioning and reflects assembly processes. The large number of disparate metrics used to quantify functional diversity reflects the range of attributes underlying this concept, generally summarized as functional richness, functional evenness, and functional divergence. However, in practice, we know very little about which attributes drive which ecosystem functions, due to a lack of field-based tests. Here we test the association between eight leading functional diversity metrics (Rao's Q, FD, FDis, FEve, FDiv, convex hull volume, and species and functional group richness) that emphasize different attributes of functional diversity, plus 11 extensions of these existing metrics that incorporate heterogeneous species abundances and trait variation. We assess the relationships among these metrics and compare their performances for predicting three key ecosystem functions (above- and belowground biomass and light capture) within a long-term grassland biodiversity experiment. Many metrics were highly correlated, although unique information was captured in FEve, FDiv, and dendrogram-based measures (FD) that were adjusted by abundance. FD adjusted by abundance outperformed all other metrics in predicting both above- and belowground biomass, although several others also performed well (e.g. Rao's Q, FDis, FDiv). More generally, trait-based richness metrics and hybrid metrics incorporating multiple diversity attributes outperformed evenness metrics and single-attribute metrics, results that were not changed when combinations of metrics were explored. For light capture, species richness alone was the best predictor, suggesting that traits for canopy architecture would be necessary to improve predictions. Our study provides a comprehensive test linking different attributes of functional diversity with ecosystem function for a grassland system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constraints on lake communities are complex and are usually studied by using limited combinations of variables derived from measurements within or adjacent to study waters. While informative, results often provide limited insight about magnitude of simultaneous influences operating at multiple scales, such as lake- vs. watershed-scale. To formulate comparisons of such contrasting influences, we explored factors controlling the abundance of predominant aquatic invertebrates in 75 shallow lakes in western Minnesota, USA. Using robust regression techniques, we modeled relative abundance of Amphipoda, small and large cladocera, Corixidae, aquatic Diptera, and an aggregate taxon that combined Ephemeroptera-Trichoptera-Odonata (ETO) in response to lake- and watershed-scale characteristics. Predictor variables included fish and submerged plant abundance, linear distance to the nearest wetland or lake, watershed size, and proportion of the watershed in agricultural production. Among-lake variability in invertebrate abundance was more often explained by lake-scale predictors than by variables based on watershed characteristics. For example, we identified significant associations between fish presence and community type and abundance of small and large cladocera, Amphipoda, Diptera, and ETO. Abundance of Amphipoda, Diptera, and Corixidae were also positively correlated with submerged plant abundance. We observed no associations between lake-watershed variables and abundance of our invertebrate taxa. Broadly, our results seem to indicate preeminence of lake-level influences on aquatic invertebrates in shallow lakes, but historical land-use legacies may mask important relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Waterfowl from northwestern Minnesota were sampled by cloacal swabbing for Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) from July - October in 2007 and 2008. AIV was detected in 222 (9.1%) of 2,441 ducks in 2007 and in 438 (17.9%) of 2,452 ducks in 2008. Prevalence of AIV peaked in late summer. We detected 27 AIV subtypes during 2007 and 31 during 2008. Ten hemagglutinin (HA) subtypes were detected each year (i.e., H1, 3-8, and 10-12 during 2007; H1-8, 10 and 11 during 2008). All neuraminidase (NA) subtypes were detected during each year of the study. Subtype diversity varied between years and increased with prevalence into September. Predominant subtypes during 2007 (comprising ≥5% of subtype diversity) included H1N1, H3N6, H3N8, H4N6, H7N3, H10N7, and H11N9. Predominant subtypes during 2008 included H3N6, H3N8, H4N6, H4N8, H6N1, and H10N7. Additionally, within each HA subtype, the same predominant HA/NA subtype combinations were detected each year and included H1N1, H3N8, H4N6, H5N2, H6N1, H7N3, H8N4, H10N7, and H11N9. The H2N3 and H12N5 viruses also predominated within the H2 and H12 subtypes, respectively, but only were detected during a single year (H2 and H12 viruses were not detected during 2007 and 2008, respectively). Mallards were the predominant species sampled (63.7% of the total), and 531 AIV were isolated from this species (80.5% of the total isolates). Mallard data collected during both years adequately described the observed temporal and spatial prevalence from the total sample and also adequately represented subtype diversity. Juvenile mallards also were adequate in describing the temporal and spatial prevalence of AIV as well as subtype diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex) are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings: We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus) in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980-2008), data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success), and statewide mark-recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002). We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed. Conclusions/Significance: Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable framework for synthesizing age-atharvest data, periodic large-scale abundance estimates, and measured covariates thought to affect harvest rates of black bears in Minnesota. Collection and analysis of these data appear to form the basis of a robust and viable population monitoring program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insect herbivores and fungal pathogens can independently affect plant fitness, and may have interactive effects. However, few studies have experimentally quantified the joint effects of insects and fungal pathogens on seed production in nonagricultural populations. We examined the factorial effects of insect herbivore exclusion (via insecticide) and fungal pathogen exclusion (via fungicide) on the population-level seed production of four common graminoid species (Andropogon gerardii, Schizachyrium scoparium, Poa pratensis, and Carex siccata) over two growing seasons in Minnesota, USA. We detected no interactive effects of herbivores and pathogens on seed production. However, the seed production of all four species was affected by either insecticide or fungicide in at least one year of the study. Insecticide consistently doubled the seed production of the historically most common species in the North American tallgrass prairie, A. gerardii (big bluestem). This is the first report of insect removal increasing seed production in this species. Insecticide increased A. gerardii number of seeds per seed head in one year, and mass per seed in both years, suggesting that consumption of flowers and seed embryos contributed to the effect on seed production. One of the primary insect species consuming A. gerardii flowers and seed embryos was likely the Cecidomyiid midge, Contarinia wattsi. Effects on all other plant species varied among years. Herbivores and pathogens likely reduce the dispersal and colonization ability of plants when they reduce seed output. Therefore, impacts on seed production of competitive dominant species may help to explain their relatively poor colonization abilities. Reduced seed output by dominant graminoids may thereby promote coexistence with subdominant species through competition-colonization tradeoffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]