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Background: Patient and public involvement (PPI) is a requirement for UK health and social care research funding. Evidence for how best to implement PPI in research programmes, such as National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaborations for Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRCs), remains limited. This paper reports findings from an action research (AR) project called IMPRESS, which aims to strengthen PPI within CLAHRC East of England (EoE). IMPRESS combines AR with Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) to explore PPI within diverse case study projects, identifying actions to implement, test and refine to further embed PPI. Methods: We purposively selected CLAHRC EoE case study projects for in-depth analysis of PPI using NPT. Data were generated from project PPI documentation, semi-structured qualitative interviews with researchers and PPI contributors and focus groups. Transcripts and documents were subjected to abductive thematic analysis and triangulation within case. Systematic across case comparison of themes was undertaken with findings and implications refined through stakeholder consultation. Results: We interviewed 24 researchers and 13 PPI contributors and analysed 28 documents from 10 case studies. Three focus groups were held: two with researchers (n = 4 and n = 6) and one with PPI contributors (n = 5). Findings detail to what extent projects made sense of PPI, bought in to PPI, operationalised PPI and appraised it, thus identifying barriers and enablers to fully embedded PPI. Conclusion: Combining NPT with AR allows us to assess the embeddedness of PPI within projects and programme, to inform specific local action and report broader conceptual lessons for PPI knowledge and practice informing the development of an action framework for embedding PPI in research programmes. To embed PPI within similar programmes teams, professionals, disciplines and institutions should be recognised as variably networked into existing PPI support. Further focus and research is needed on sharing PPI learning and supporting innovation in PPI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthworms are primary candidates for national soil health monitoring as they are ecosystem engineers that benefit both food production and ecosystem services associated with soil security. Supporting farmers to monitor soil health could help to achieve the policy aspiration of sustainable soils by 2030 in England; however, little is known about how to overcome participation barriers, appropriate methodologies (practical, cost-effective, usefulness) or training needs. This paper presents the results from a pilot #60minworms study which mobilised farmers to assess over >1300 ha farmland soils in spring 2018. The results interpretation framework is based on the presence of earthworms from each of the three ecological groups at each observation (20 x 20 cm x 20 cm pit) and spatially across a field (10 soil pits). Results showed that most fields have basic earthworm presence and abundance, but 42% fields may be over-worked as indicated by absence/rarity of epigeic and/or anecic earthworms. Tillage had a negative impact (p < 0.05) on earthworm populations and organic matter management did not mitigate tillage impacts. In terms of farmer participation, Twitter and Farmers Weekly magazine were highly effective channels for recruitment. Direct feedback from participants included excellent scores in trust, value and satisfaction of the protocol (e.g. 100% would do the test again) and 57% would use their worm survey results to change their soil management practices. A key training need in terms of earthworm identification skills was reported. The trade-off between data quality, participation rates and fieldwork costs suggests there is potential to streamline the protocol further to #30minworms (5 pits), incurring farmer fieldwork costs of approximately £1.48 ha-1. At national scales, £14 million pounds across 4.7 M ha-1 in fieldwork costs per survey could be saved by farmer participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smoking has been identified as the second greatest risk factor for global death and disability and has impacts on the oral cavity from aesthetic changes to fatal diseases such as oral cancer. The paper presents a secondary analysis of the National Adult Dental Health Survey (2009). The analysis used descriptive statistics, bivariate analyses and logistic regression models to report the self-reported oral health status and dental attendance of smokers and non-smokers in England. Of the 9,657 participants, 21% reported they were currently smoking. When compared with smokers; non-smokers were more likely to report ‘good oral health’ (75% versus 57% respectively, p<0.05). Smokers were twice as likely to attend the dentist symptomatically (OR = 2.27, CI = 2.02–2.55) compared with non-smoker regardless the deprivation status. Smokers were more likely to attend symptomatically in the most deprived quintiles (OR = 1.99, CI = 1.57–2.52) and perceive they had poorer oral health (OR = 1.77, CI = 1.42–2.20). The present research is consistent with earlier sub-national research and should be considered when planning early diagnosis and management strategies for smoking-related conditions, considering the potential impact dental teams might have on smoking rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Antibiotic resistance poses a threat to public health and healthcare systems. Escherichia coli causes more bacteraemia episodes in England than any other bacterial species. This study aimed to estimate the burden of E. coli bacteraemia and associated antibiotic resistance in the secondary care setting. Materials and methods: This was a retrospective cohort study, with E. coli bacteraemia as the main exposure of interest. Adult hospital in-patients, admitted to acute NHS hospitals between July 2011 and June 2012 were included. English national surveillance and administrative datasets were utilised. Cox proportional hazard, subdistribution hazard and multistate models were constructed to estimate rate of discharge, rate of in-hospital death and excess length of stay, with a unit bed day cost applied to the latter to estimate cost burden from the healthcare system perspective. Results: 14,042 E. coli bacteraemia and 8,919,284 non-infected inpatient observations were included. E. coli bacteraemia was associated with an increased rate of in-hospital death across all models, with an adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio of 5.88 (95% CI: 5.62–6.15). Resistance was not found to be associated with in-hospital mortality once adjusting for patient and hospital covariates. However, resistance was found to be associated with an increased excess length of stay. This was especially true for third generation cephalosporin (1.58 days excess length of stay, 95% CI: 0.84–2.31) and piperacillin/tazobactam resistance (1.23 days (95% CI: 0.50–1.95)). The annual cost of E. coli bacteraemia was estimated to be £14,346,400 (2012 £), with third-generation cephalosporin resistance associated with excess costs per infection of £420 (95% CI: 220–630). Conclusions: E. coli bacteraemia places a statistically significant burden on patient health and the hospital sector in England. Resistance to front-line antibiotics increases length of stay; increasing the cost burden of such infections in the secondary care setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The environment receives antibiotics through a combination of direct application (e.g., aquaculture and fruit production), as well as indirect release through pharmaceutical manufacturing, sewage and animal manure. Antibiotic concentrations in many sewage-impacted rivers are thought to be sufficient to select for antibiotic resistance genes. Yet, because antibiotics are nearly always found associated with antibiotic-resistant faecal bacteria in wastewater, it is difficult to distinguish the selective role of effluent antibiotics within a ‘sea’ of gut-derived resistance genes. Here we examine the potential for macrolide and fluoroquinolone prescribing in England to select for resistance in the River Thames catchment, England. We show that 64% and 74% of the length of the modelled catchment is chronically exposed to putative resistance-selecting concentrations (PNEC) of macrolides and fluoroquinolones, respectively. Under current macrolide usage, 115 km of the modelled River Thames catchment (8% of total length) exceeds the PNEC by 5-fold. Similarly, under current fluoroquinolone usage, 223 km of the modelled River Thames catchment (16% of total length) exceeds the PNEC by 5-fold. Our results reveal that if reduced prescribing was the sole mitigating measure, that macrolide and fluoroquinolone prescribing would need to decline by 77% and 85%, respectively, to limit resistance selection in the catchment. Significant reductions in antibiotic prescribing are feasible, but innovation in sewage-treatment will be necessary for achieving substantially-reduced antibiotic loads and inactivation of DNA-pollution from resistant bacteria. Greater confidence is needed in current risk-based targets for antibiotics, particularly in mixtures, to better inform environmental risk assessments and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Funding shortages and an ageing population have increased pressures on state or insurance funded end of life care for older people. Across the world, policy debate has arisen about the potential role volunteers can play, working alongside health and social care professionals in the community to support and care for the ageing and dying. Aims: The authors examined self-reported levels of care for the elderly by the public in England, and public opinions of community volunteering concepts to care for the elderly at the end of life. In particular, claimed willingness to help and to be helped by local people was surveyed. Methods: A sample of 3,590 adults in England aged 45 or more from an online access panel responded to a questionnaire in late 2017. The survey data was weighted to be representative of the population within this age band. Key literature and formative qualitative research informed the design of the survey questionnaire, which was further refined after piloting. Results: Preferences for different models of community volunteering were elicited. There was a preference for ‘formal’ models with increased wariness of ‘informal’ features. Whilst 32% of adults said they ‘might join’ depending on whom the group helped, unsurprisingly more personal and demanding types of help significantly reduced the claimed willingness to help. Finally, willingness to help (or be helped) by local community carers or volunteers was regarded as less attractive than care being provided by personal family, close friends or indeed health and care professionals. Conclusion: Findings suggest that if community volunteering to care for elderly people at the end of life in England is to expand it may require considerable attention to the model including training for volunteers and protections for patients and volunteers as well as public education and promotion. Currently, in England, there is a clear preference for non-medical care to be delivered by close family or social care professionals, with volunteer community care regarded only as a back-up option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To explore adolescents’ experiences of consenting to, and participating in, alcohol intervention trials when attending for emergency care. Methods: In-depth semi-structured interviews with 27 adolescents (16 males; aged 14–17 years (Mage = 15.7)) who had taken part in one of two linked brief alcohol intervention trials based in 10 accident and emergency departments in England. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and subject to thematic analysis. Results: Research and intervention methods were generally found to be acceptable though confidentiality was important and parental presence could hinder truthful disclosures regarding alcohol use. Participants discussed the importance of being involved in research that was relevant to them and recognised alcohol consumption as a normative part of adolescence, highlighting the importance of having access to appropriate health information. Beyond this, they recognised the benefits and risks of trial participation for themselves and others with the majority showing a degree of altruism in considering longer term implications for others as well as themselves. Conclusions: Alcohol screening and intervention in emergency care is both acceptable and relevant to adolescents but acceptability is reliant on confidentiality being assured and may be inhibited by parental presence. Trial registration: [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The majority of studies that link antibiotic usage and resistance focus on simple associations between the resistance against a specific antibiotic and the use of that specific antibiotic. However, the relationship between antibiotic use and resistance is more complex. Here we evaluate selection and co-selection by assessing which antibiotics, including those mainly prescribed for respiratory tract infections, are associated with increased resistance to various antibiotics among Escherichia coli isolated from urinary samples. Methods: Monthly primary care prescribing data were obtained from National Health Service (NHS) Digital. Positive E. coli records from urine samples in English primary care (n = 888,207) between April 2014 and January 2016 were obtained from the Second Generation Surveillance System. Elastic net regularization was used to evaluate associations between prescribing of different antibiotic groups and resistance against amoxicillin, cephalexin, ciprofloxacin, co-amoxiclav and nitrofurantoin at the clinical commissioning group (CCG) level. England is divided into 209 CCGs, with each NHS practice prolonging to one CCG. Results: Amoxicillin prescribing (measured in DDD/ 1000 inhabitants / day) was positively associated with amoxicillin (RR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.04) and ciprofloxacin (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04–1.17) resistance. In contrast, nitrofurantoin prescribing was associated with lower levels of resistance to amoxicillin (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.84–0.97). CCGs with higher levels of trimethoprim prescribing also had higher levels of ciprofloxacin resistance (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10–1.59). Conclusion: Amoxicillin, which is mainly (and often unnecessarily) prescribed for respiratory tract infections is associated with increased resistance against various antibiotics among E. coli causing urinary tract infections. Our findings suggest that when predicting the potential impact of interventions on antibiotic resistances it is important to account for use of other antibiotics, including those typically used for other indications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the high prevalence of common mental disorders (CMDs) and individuals living alone in the United Kingdom, the goal of this study using English nationally representative data was to examine the association between living alone and CMDs, and to identify potential mediating factors of this association. The data were drawn from the 1993, 2000 and 2007 National Psychiatric Morbidity Surveys. CMDs were assessed using the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised (CIS-R), a questionnaire focusing on past week neurotic symptoms. The presence of CMDs was defined as a CIS-R total score of 12 and above. Multivariable logistic regression and mediation analyses were conducted to analyze the association between living alone and CMDs, and to identify mediators in this association. The prevalence of CMDs was higher in individuals living alone than in those not living alone in all survey years. Multivariable analysis showed a positive association between living alone and CMDs in all survey years (1993: odds ratio [OR] = 1.69; 2000: OR = 1.63; and 2007: OR = 1.88). Overall, loneliness explained 84% of the living alone-CMD association. Living alone was positively associated with CMDs. Interventions addressing loneliness among individuals living alone may be particularly important for the mental wellbeing of this vulnerable population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To explore pregnant women’s preferences for birth setting in England. Design: Labelled discrete choice experiment (DCE). Setting: Online survey. Sample: Pregnant women recruited through social media and an online panel. Methods: We developed a DCE to assess women’s preferences for four hypothetical birth settings based on seven attributes: reputation, continuity of care, distance from home, time to see a doctor, partner able to stay overnight, chance of straightforward birth and safety for baby. We used a mixed logit model, with setting modelled as an alternative-specific constant, and conducted a scenario analysis to evaluate the impact of changes in attribute levels on uptake of birth settings. Main outcome measures: Women’s preferences for birth setting. Results: 257 pregnant women completed the DCE. All birth setting attributes, except ‘time to see doctor’, were significant in women’s choice (p<0.05). There was significant heterogeneity in preferences for some attributes. Changes to levels for ‘safety for the baby’ and ‘partner able to stay overnight’ were associated with larger changes from baseline uptake of birth setting. If the preferences identified were translated into the real-world context up to a third of those who reported planning birth in an obstetric unit might choose a midwifery unit assuming universal access to all settings, and knowledge of the differences between settings. Conclusions: We found that ‘safety for the baby’, ‘chance of a straightforward birth’ and ‘can the woman’s partner stay overnight following birth’ were particularly important in women’s preferences for hypothetical birth setting. If all birth settings were available to women and they were aware of the differences between them, it is likely that more low risk women who currently plan birth in OUs might choose a midwifery unit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

England’s national Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme advocates stepped care as its organizational delivery of psychological therapies to common mental health problems. There is limited evidence regarding the efficacy of stepped care as a service delivery model, heterogeneity of definition and differences in model implementation in both research and routine practice, hence outcome comparison in terms of effectiveness of model is difficult. Despite sound evidence of the efficacy of low intensity interventions there appears to be a perpetuation of the notion that severity and complexity should only be treated by a high intensity intervention through the continuation of a stratified care model. Yet no psychotherapy treatment is found to be more superior to another, and not enough is known about what works for whom to aid the matching of treatment decision. In the absence of understanding precise treatment factors optimal for recovery, it may be useful to better understand the impact of a service delivery model, and whether different models achieve different outcomes. This study aims to contribute to the discussion regarding the stepped care definition and delivery, and explores the impact on clinical outcomes where different types of stepped care have been implemented within the same service. An observational cohort study analysed retrospective data (n = 16,723) over a 4 year period, in a single IAPT service, where delivery changed from one type of stepped care model to another. We compared the outcomes of treatment completers with a stratified care model and a progression care model. We also explored the assumption that patients who score severe on psychological measures, and therefore are potentially complex, would achieve better outcomes in a stratified model. Outcomes in each model type were compared, alongside baseline factor variables. A significant association was observed between a recovery outcome and model type, with patients 1.5 times more likely to recover in the progression delivery model. The potential implications are that with a progression stepped care model of service delivery, more patients can be treated with a lower intensity intervention, even with initial severe presentations, ensuring that only those that need high intensity CBT or equivalent are stepped up. This could provide services with an effective clinical model that is efficient and potentially more cost effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many disciplines of scholarship are interested in the Relative Age Effect (RAE), whereby age-banding confers advantages on older members of the cohort over younger ones. Most research does not test this relationship in a manner consistent with theory (which requires a decline in frequency across the cohort year), instead resorting to non-parametric, non-directional approaches. In this article, the authors address this disconnect, provide an overview of the benefits associated with Poisson regression modelling, and two managerially useful measures for quantifying RAE bias, namely the Indices of Discrimination and Wastage. In a tutorial-like exposition, applications and extensions of this approach are illustrated using data on professional soccer players competing in the top two tiers of the “Big Five” European football leagues in the search to identify paragon clubs, leagues, and countries from which others may learn to mitigate this form of age-discrimination in the talent identification process. As with OLS regression, Poisson regression may include more than one independent variable. In this way we test competing explanations of RAE; control for unwanted sources of covariation; model interaction effects (that different clubs and countries may not all be subject to RAE to the same degree); and test for non-monotonic versions of RAE suggested in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The patient's interpretation of the events and decisions leading up to consultation with a healthcare professional for symptoms of brain cancer is under researched. The aim of this study was to document responses to noticing the changes preceding a diagnosis of brain cancer and living with them, focusing on appraisal of changes and the decision to seek (and re-seek) help, with attention to the psychological processes underpinning the appraisal and help-seeking intervals. Method: In this qualitative study set in Eastern and NW England, in-depth interviews with adult patients recently diagnosed with primary brain cancer and their family members were analysed thematically, using the Model of Pathways to Treatment as a conceptual framework. Results: 39 adult patients were interviewed. Regarding the appraisal interval, cognitive heuristics were found to underpin explanations of changes/symptoms. The subtlety and normality of changes often suggested nothing serious was wrong. Common explanations included stress or being busy at work, or age and these did not seem to warrant a visit to a doctor. Explanations and the decision to seek help were made within the social context, with friends, family and work colleagues contributing to appraisal and help-seeking decisions. Regarding the help-seeking interval, barriers to seeking help reflected components of Social Cognitive Theory, and included having other priorities, outcome expectations (e.g. 'feeling silly', not sure much can be done about it, not wanting to waste doctors' time) and accessibility of a preferred healthcare professional. Conclusion: Application of psychological theory facilitated understanding of the influences on cognition and behaviour. The study highlights implications for theory, awareness campaigns and potential opportunities promoting more timely help-seeking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methods: A cross-sectional survey of men attending antenatal care with their partners at three London Maternity Units. We assessed level of pregnancy planning using the partner version of the London Measure of Unplanned Pregnancy (LMUP), preconception health behaviours, and whether they had sought information and health professional advice before conception. Main results: We recruited 573 men (91% response rate). Mean age was 34 years, 86% were in employment or full time education and 66% had a degree. Half were overweight or obese, 16% were still smoking and 79% had consumed alcohol in the three months before conception. Of 250 men answering questions about medication, a third were taking medication with potentially adverse effects on male reproductive health, while 23% reported taking pre-pregnancy vitamins. 46.9% had looked at information about pregnancy from a variety of sources, including online, before their partner became pregnant. Assessed by the LMUP, 74% of pregnancies were planned. Male 'planners' were more likely than other men to reduce smoking, reduce alcohol consumption and to eat more healthily in preparation for pregnancy. However, 57% took no action to improve their health. Significance of the findings: In a sample of relatively educated men accompanying their partners on an antenatal visit, nearly half had made at least one positive health behaviour change before pregnancy, but half were overweight or obese and a third were on medication that could impair male reproductive health. These findings, together with a high prevalence of alcohol consumption and smoking, indicate the need for greater paternal preconception health awareness and care. Innovative ways to promote positive messages about fatherhood, including medication review as part of preconception care, should be evaluated for impact on improving paternal reproductive health and pregnancy and neonatal outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People with dementia living in care homes often experience clinically significant agitation; however, little is known about its economic impact. Objective: To calculate the cost of agitation in people with dementia living in care homes. Methods: We used the baseline data from 1,424 residents with dementia living in care homes (part of Managing Agitation and Raising QUality of lifE in dementia (MARQUE) study) that had Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI) scores recorded. We investigated the relationship between residents’ health and social care costs and severity of agitation based on the CMAI total score. In addition, we assessed resource utilisation and compared costs of residents with and without clinically significant symptoms of agitation using the CMAI over and above the cost of the care home. Results: Agitation defined by the CMAI was a significant predictor of costs. On average, a one-point increase in the CMAI will lead to a 0.5 percentage points (cost ratio 1.005, 95%CI 1.001 to 1.010) increase in the annual costs. The excess annual cost associated with agitation per resident with dementia was £1,125.35. This suggests that, on average, agitation accounts for 44% of the annual health and social care costs of dementia in people living in care homes. Conclusion: Agitation in people with dementia living in care homes contributes significantly to the overall costs increasing as the level of agitation increases. Residents with the highest level of agitation cost nearly twice as much as those with the lowest levels of agitation, suggesting that effective strategies to reduce agitation are likely to be cost-effective in this setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To gain a better understanding of the complex relationships of different measures of social position, educational level and income with alcohol consumption in England. Method: Between March 2014 and April 2018 data were collected on n = 57,807 alcohol drinkers in England taking part in the Alcohol Toolkit Study (ATS). Respondents completed the AUDIT-C measure of frequency of alcohol consumption, amount consumed on a typical day and binge drinking frequency. The first two questions were used to derive a secondary measure of quantity: average weekly unit consumption. Socio-economic factors measured were: social-grade (based on occupation), employment status, educational qualifications, home and car ownership and income. Models were constructed using ridge regression to assess the contribution of each predictor taking account of high collinearity. Models were adjusted for age, gender and ethnicity. Results: The strongest predictor of frequency of alcohol consumption was social-grade. Those in the two lowest occupational categories of social grade (e.g. semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers, and unemployed, pensioners, casual workers) has fewer drinking occasions than those in professional-managerial occupations (β = -0.29, 95%CI -0.34 to -0.25; β = -0.31, 95%CI -0.33 to -0.29). The strongest predictor of consumed volume and binge drinking frequency was lower educational attainment: those whose highest qualification was an A-level (i.e. college/high school qualification) drank substantially more on a typical day (β = 0.28, 95%CI 0.25 to 0.31) and had a higher weekly unit intake (β = 3.55, 95%CI 3.04 to 4.05) than those with a university qualification. They also reported a higher frequency of binge drinking (β = 0.11, 95%CI 0.09 to 0.14). Housing tenure was a strong predictor of all drinking outcomes, while employment status and car ownership were the weakest predictors of most outcomes. Conclusion: Social-grade and educational attainment appear to be the strongest socioeconomic predictors of alcohol consumption indices in England, followed closely by housing tenure. Employment status and car ownership have the lowest predictive power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with antiretroviral medication is an effective, evidence-based option for HIV prevention. In England, issues of cost-effectiveness and of responsibility for commissioning prevention services have so far led National Health Service (NHS) England to decide not to commission PrEP. Given the significant lag between the awareness of PrEP efficacy and the opportunity to obtain PrEP through traditional health care routes, many gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) have turned to ‘DIY PrEP’, purchasing generic formulations of PrEP for themselves on the internet or via other alternative routes. However, there is very little research on DIY PrEP practices and no qualitative study with DIY PrEP users in the UK. A formative qualitative study was conducted in 2017 to inform the development of an intervention (PrEP Club) to support DIY PrEP users and improve the safety and experience of this prevention strategy. Focus groups were held with 20 MSM who are based in London and are obtaining PrEP through means other than clinical trials, to explore their accounts of sourcing and using PrEP and the experiential meanings of these. In this article, we report findings from this first, formative study and present the different practices involved in finding out about PrEP, buying it and ascertaining legitimacy of sellers and products. We reflect on the uncertainties participants described related to actually using PrEP, including deciding on drug dosing and monitoring their health. Finally, we present the results of the discussions participants had about the kind of support they had received, the help they would have liked, and their views on proposed interventions to support DIY PrEP users, such as PrEP Club. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study aimed to assess the predictors among high-risk drinkers in England of attempts to reduce alcohol consumption, the reasons given for these attempts and the association between the various reasons and alcohol consumption. Method: Data came from 2,800 high-risk drinkers taking part in the Alcohol Toolkit Study (ATS) between March 2014 and November 2016 who were attempting to reduce their alcohol consumption. Participants completed the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and were asked questions regarding their socio-demographic characteristics, attempts to cut down and reasons for doing so. Results: Those cutting down were significantly older (OR 1.01, p<0.001), were more likely to be female (OR 1.32, p<0.05), had higher AUDIT-C scores (OR 1.12, p<0. 001), were less likely to be of white ethnicity (OR 0.64, p<0. 001), and were more likely to reside in the South of England (OR 1.34, p<0. 001). They were also more likely to be of higher occupationally-based social-grades (p<0. 001). The main reported reasons for reducing consumption were: fitness (22.5%), weight loss (20.4%), future health (20.4%), advice from a health-care professional (7.9%) and cost (7.6%). Those reporting the followings reasons for cutting down had higher AUDIT-C scores than those who did not report these reasons: a concern about further health problems (β 0.20, p<0.05), advice from a doctor/health worker (β 0.38, p<0.05), that drinking was too expensive (β 0.42, p<0.01) and detoxification (β 0.42, p<0.01). Lower AUDIT-C scores were noted among those who reported that they knew someone who was cutting down (β -0.67, p<0.05), that there was no reason (β -0.36, p<0.05), or they didn’t know why they were cutting down (β -0.25, p<0.05). Conclusions: Around a fifth of high-risk drinkers in England report trying to reduce their drinking, particularly older, high-socioeconomic female drinkers from the south of England. Attempts to cut down appear to be driven by a desire to improve health, advice from others and cutting down on the cost of drinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Opportunistic chlamydia screening of <25 year-olds was nationally-implemented in England in 2008 but its impact on chlamydia transmission is poorly understood. We undertook a population-based seroprevalence study to explore the impact of screening on cumulative incidence of chlamydia, as measured by C.trachomatis-specific antibody. Methods: Anonymised sera from participants in the nationally-representative Health Surveys for England (HSE) were tested for C.trachomatis antibodies using two novel Pgp3 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) as a marker of past infection. Determinants of being seropositive were explored using logistic regression among 16–44 year-old women and men in 2010 and 2012 (years when sexual behaviour questions were included in the survey) (n = 1,402 women; 1,119 men). Seroprevalence trends among 16–24 year-old women (n = 3,361) were investigated over ten time points from 1994–2012. Results: In HSE2010/2012, Pgp3 seroprevalence among 16–44 year-olds was 24.4% (95%CI 22.0–27.1) in women and 13.9% (11.8–16.2) in men. Seroprevalence increased with age (up to 33.5% [27.5–40.2] in 30–34 year-old women, 18.7% [13.4–25.6] in 35–39 year-old men); years since first sex; number of lifetime sexual partners; and younger age at first sex. 76.7% of seropositive 16–24 year-olds had never been diagnosed with chlamydia. Among 16–24 year-old women, a non-significant decline in seroprevalence was observed from 2008–2012 (prevalence ratio per year: 0.94 [0.84–1.05]). Conclusion: Our application of Pgp3 ELISAs demonstrates a high lifetime risk of chlamydia infection among women and a large proportion of undiagnosed infections. A decrease in age-specific cumulative incidence following national implementation of opportunistic chlamydia screening has not yet been demonstrated. We propose these assays be used to assess impact of chlamydia control programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maintaining and improving water quality is key to the protection and restoration of aquatic ecosystems, which provide important benefits to society. In Europe, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) defines water quality based on a set of biological, hydro-morphological and chemical targets, and aims to reach good quality conditions in all river bodies by the year 2027. While recently it has been argued that achieving these goals will deliver and enhance ecosystem services, in particular recreational services, there is little empirical evidence demonstrating so. Here we test the hypothesis that good water quality is associated with increased utilization of recreational services, combining four surveys covering walking, boating, fishing and swimming visits, together with water quality data for all water bodies in eight River Basin Districts (RBDs) in England. We compared the percentage of visits in areas of good water quality to a set of null models accounting for population density, income, age distribution, travel distance, public access, and substitutability. We expect such association to be positive, at least for fishing (which relies on fish stocks) and swimming (with direct contact to water). We also test if these services have stronger association with water quality relative to boating and walking alongside rivers, canals or lakeshores. In only two of eight RBDs (Northumbria and Anglian) were both criteria met (positive association, strongest for fishing and swimming) when comparing to at least one of the null models. This conclusion is robust to variations in dataset size. Our study suggests that achieving the WFD water quality goals may not enhance recreational ecosystem services, and calls for further empirical research on the connection between water quality and ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling length of stay in neonatal care is vital to inform service planning and the counselling of parents. Preterm babies, at the highest risk of mortality, can have long stays in neonatal care and require high resource use. Previous work has incorporated babies that die into length of stay estimates, but this still overlooks the levels of care required during their stay. This work incorporates all babies, and the levels of care they require, into length of stay estimates. Data were obtained from the National Neonatal Research Database for singleton babies born at 24–31 weeks gestational age discharged from a neonatal unit in England from 2011 to 2014. A Cox multistate model, adjusted for gestational age, was used to consider a baby’s two competing outcomes: death or discharge from neonatal care, whilst also considering the different levels of care required: intensive care; high dependency care and special care. The probabilities of receiving each of the levels of care, or having died or been discharged from neonatal care are presented graphically overall and adjusted for gestational age. Stacked predicted probabilities produced for each week of gestational age provide a useful tool for clinicians when counselling parents about length of stay and for commissioners when considering allocation of resources. Multistate modelling provides a useful method for describing the entire neonatal care pathway, where rates of in-unit mortality can be high. For a healthcare service focussed on costs, it is important to consider all babies that contribute towards workload, and the levels of care they require. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The absence of effective interventions in presence of increasing national incidence and case-fatality in acute kidney injury requiring dialysis (AKI-D) warrants a study of regional variation to explore any potential for improvement. We therefore studied regional variation in the epidemiology of AKI-D in English National Health Service over a period of 15 years. Method: We analysed Hospital Episode Statistics data for all patients with a diagnosis of AKI-D, using ICD-10-CM codes, in English regions between 2000 and 2015 to study temporal changes in regional incidence and case-fatality. Results: Of 203,758,879 completed discharges between 1st April 2000 and 31st March 2015, we identified 54,252 patients who had AKI-D in the nine regions of England. The population incidence of AKI-D increased variably in all regions over 15 years; however, the regional variation decreased from 3·3-fold to 1·3-fold (p<0·01). In a multivariable adjusted model, using London as the reference, in the period of 2000–2005, the North East (odd ratio (OR) 1·38; 95%CI 1·01, 1·90), East Midlands (OR 1·38; 95%CI 1·01, 1·90) and West Midlands (OR 1·38; 95%CI 1·01, 1·90) had higher odds for death, while East of England had lower odds for death (OR 0·66; 95% CI 0·49, 0·90). The North East had higher OR in all three five-year periods as compared to the other eight regions. Adjusted case-fatality showed significant variability with temporary improvement in some regions but overall there was no significant improvement in any region over 15 years. Conclusions: We observed considerable regional variation in the epidemiology of AKI-D that was not entirely attributable to variations in demographic or other identifiable clinical factors. These observations make a compelling case for further research to elucidate the reasons and identify interventions to reduce the incidence and case-fatality in all regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Alcohol Harm Paradox refers to observations that lower socioeconomic status (SES) groups consume less alcohol but experience more alcohol-related problems. However, SES is a complex concept and its observed relationship to social problems often depends on how it is measured and the demographic groups studied. Thus this study assessed socioeconomic patterning of alcohol consumption and related harm using multiple measures of SES and examined moderation of this patterning by gender and age. Method: Data were used from the Alcohol Toolkit Study between March and September 2015 on 31,878 adults (16+) living in England. Participants completed the AUDIT which includes alcohol consumption, harm and dependence modules. SES was measured via qualifications, employment, home and car ownership, income and social-grade, plus a composite of these measures. The composite score was coded such that higher scores reflected greater social-disadvantage. Results: We observed the Alcohol Harm Paradox for the composite SES measure, with a linear negative relationship between SES and AUDIT-Consumption scores (β = -0.036, p<0.001) and a positive relationship between lower SES and AUDIT-Harm (β = 0.022, p<0.001) and AUDIT-Dependence (β = 0.024, p<0.001) scores. Individual measures of SES displayed different, and non-linear, relationships with AUDIT modules. For example, social-grade and income had a u-shaped relationship with AUDIT-Consumption scores while education had an inverse u-shaped relationship. Almost all measures displayed an exponential relationship with AUDIT-Dependence and AUDIT-Harm scores. We identified moderating effects from age and gender, with AUDIT-Dependence scores increasing more steeply with lower SES in men and both AUDIT-Harm and AUDIT-Dependence scores increasing more steeply with lower SES in younger age groups. Conclusion: Different SES measures appear to influence whether the Alcohol Harm Paradox is observed as a linear trend across SES groups or a phenomenon associated particularly with the most disadvantaged. The paradox also appears more concentrated in men and younger age groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There have been fundamental shifts in the attitude towards, access to and nature of long term care in high income countries. The proportion and profile of the older population living in such settings varies according to social, cultural, and economic characteristics as well as governmental policies. Changes in the profiles of people in different settings are important for policy makers and care providers. Although details will differ, how change occurs across time is important to all, including lower and middle income countries developing policies themselves. Here change is examined across two decades in England. Methods and Findings: Using the two Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I: 77% response, CFAS II: 56% response), two population based studies of older people carried out in the same areas conducted two decades apart, the study diagnosis of dementia using the Automated Geriatric Examination for Computer Assisted Taxonomy, health and wellbeing were examined, focusing on long term care. The proportion of individuals with three or more health conditions increased for everyone living in long term care between CFAS I (47.6%, 95% CI: 42.3–53.1) and CFAS II (62.7%, 95% CI: 54.8–70.0) and was consistently higher in those without dementia compared to those with dementia in both studies. Functional impairment measured by activities of daily living increased in assisted living facilities from 48% (95% CI: 44%-52%) to 67% (95% CI: 62%-71%). Conclusions: Health profiles of residents in long term care have changed dramatically over time. Dementia prevalence and reporting multiple health conditions have increased. Receiving care in the community puts pressure on unpaid carers and formal services; these results have implications for policies about supporting people at home as well as for service provision within long term care including quality of care, health management, cost, and the development of a skilled, caring, and informed workforce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The 2015 NICE guidelines for suspected cancer recommend that English General Practitioners have direct access to diagnostic tests to investigate symptoms of cancer that do not meet the criteria for urgent referral. We aimed to identify the proportion of GPs in England with direct access to these tests. Methods: We recruited 533 English GPs through a national clinical research network to complete an online survey about direct access to laboratory, radiology, and endoscopy tests in the three months leading up to the release of the 2015 NICE guidance. If they had direct access to a diagnostic test, GPs were asked about the time necessary to arrange a test and receive a report. Results are reported by NHS sub-region and, adjusting for sampling, for England as a whole. Results: Almost all GPs reported direct access to x-ray and laboratory investigations except faecal occult blood testing (54%, 95% CI 49–59%) and urine protein electrophoresis (89%, 95% CI 84–92%). Fewer GPs had direct access to CT scans (54%, 95% CI 49–59%) or endoscopy (colonoscopy 32%, 95% CI 28–37%; gastroscopy 72%, 95% CI 67–77%). There was significant variation in direct access between NHS regions for the majority of imaging tests—for example, from 20 to 85% to MRI. Apart from x-ray, very few GPs (1–22%) could access radiology and endoscopy within the timescales recommended by NICE. The modal request to test time was 2–4 weeks for routine radiology and 4–6 weeks for routine endoscopy with results taking another 1–2 weeks. Conclusion: At the time that the 2015 NICE guideline was released, local investment was required to not only provide direct access but also reduce the interval between request and test and speed up reporting. Further research using our data as a benchmark is now required to identify whether local improvements in direct access have been achieved in response to the NICE targets. If alternative approaches to test access are to be proposed they must be piloted comprehensively and underpinned by robust effectiveness data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is substantial variation in nervous system and intracranial tumour incidence worldwide. UK incidence data have limited utility because they group these diverse tumours together and do not provide data for individual ethnic groups within Blacks and South Asians. Our objective was to determine the incidence of individual tumour types for seven individual ethnic groups. Methods: We used data from the National Cancer Intelligence Network on tumour site, age, sex and deprivation to identify 42,207 tumour cases. Self-reported ethnicity was obtained from the Hospital Episode Statistics database. We used mid-year population estimates from the Office for National Statistics. We analysed tumours by site using Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios comparing non-White ethnicities to Whites after adjustment for sex, age and deprivation. Results: Our study showed differences in tumour incidence by ethnicity for gliomas, meningiomas, pituitary tumours and cranial and paraspinal nerve tumours. Relative to Whites; South Asians, Blacks and Chinese have a lower incidence of gliomas (p<0.01), with respective incidence rate ratios of 0.68 (confidence interval: 0.60–0.77), 0.62 (0.52–0.73) and 0.58 (0.41–0.83). Blacks have a higher incidence of meningioma (p<0.01) with an incidence rate ratio of 1.29 (1.05–1.59) and there is heterogeneity in meningioma incidence between individual South Asian ethnicities. Blacks have a higher incidence of pituitary tumours relative to Whites (p<0.01) with an incidence rate ratio of 2.95 (2.37–3.67). There is heterogeneity in pituitary tumour incidence between individual South Asian ethnicities. Conclusions: We present incidence data of individual tumour types for seven ethnic groups. Current understanding of the aetiology of these tumours cannot explain our results. These findings suggest avenues for further work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: While rheumatoid arthritis is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), our knowledge of how the pattern of risk varies for different cardiovascular phenotypes is incomplete. The association between rheumatoid arthritis and the initial presentation of 12 types of CVDs were examined in a contemporary population of men and women of a wide age range. Methods: CALIBER data, which links primary care, hospital and mortality data in England, was analysed. A cohort of people aged ≥18 years and without history of CVD was assembled and included all patients with prospectively recorded rheumatoid arthritis from January 1997, until March 2010, matched with up to ten people without rheumatoid arthritis by age, sex and general practice. The associations between rheumatoid arthritis and the initial presentation of 12 types of CVDs were estimated using multivariable random effects Poisson regression models. Results: The analysis included 12,120 individuals with rheumatoid arthritis and 121,191 comparators. Of these, 2,525 patients with and 18,146 without rheumatoid arthritis developed CVDs during a median of 4.2 years of follow-up. Patients with rheumatoid arthritis had higher rates of myocardial infarction (adjusted incidence ratio [IRR] = 1.43, 95%CI 1.21–1.70), unheralded coronary death (IRR = 1.60, 95%CI 1.18–2.18), heart failure (IRR = 1.61, 95%CI 1.43–1.83), cardiac arrest (HR = 2.26, 95%CI 1.69–3.02) and peripheral arterial disease (HR = 1.36, 95%CI 1.14–1.62); and lower rates of stable angina (HR = 0.83, 95%CI 0.73–0.95). There was no evidence of association with cerebrovascular diseases, abdominal aortic aneurysm or unstable angina, or of interactions with sex or age. Conclusions: The observed associations with some but not all types of CVDs inform both clinical practice and the selection of cardiovascular endpoints for trials and for the development of prognostic models for patients with rheumatoid arthritis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Reported human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in England is high, particularly in girls offered routine immunisation at age 12 years. Serological surveillance can be used to validate reported coverage and explore variations within it and changes in serological markers over time. Methods: Residual serum specimens collected from females aged 15–19 years in 2010–2011 were tested for anti-HPV16 and HPV18 IgG by ELISA. Based on these results, females were classified as follows: seronegative, probable natural infection, probable vaccine-induced seropositivity, or possible natural infection/possible vaccine-induced seropositivity. The proportion of females with vaccine-induced seropositivity was compared to the reported vaccination coverage. Results: Of 2146 specimens tested, 1380 (64%) were seropositive for both types HPV16 and HPV18 and 159 (7.4%) positive for only one HPV type. The IgG concentrations were far higher for those positive for both HPV types than those positive for only one HPV type. 1320 (62%) females were considered to have probable vaccine-induced seropositivity. Among vaccine-induced seropositives, antibody concentrations declined with increasing age at vaccination and increasing time since vaccination. Conclusions: The proportion of females with vaccine-induced seropositivity was closest to the reported 3-dose coverage in those offered the vaccination at younger ages, with a greater discrepancy in the older females. This suggests either some under-reporting of immunisations of older females and/or that partial vaccination (i.e. one- or two-doses) has provided high antibody responses in 13–17 year olds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recently a large clinical trial showed that the use of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) among immunocompetent individuals aged 65 years and over was safe and efficacious. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating immunocompetent 65 year olds with PCV13 vaccine in England. England is a country with universal childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination programme in place (7-valent (PCV7) since 2006 and PCV13 since 2010), as well as a 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide (PPV23) vaccination programme targeting clinical risk-groups and those ≥65 years. Method: A static cohort cost-effectiveness model was developed to follow a cohort of 65 year olds until death, which will be vaccinated in the autumn of 2016 with PCV13. Sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness of the results. Results: The childhood vaccination programme with PCV7 has induced herd protection among older unvaccinated age groups, with a resultant low residual disease burden caused by PCV7 vaccine types. We show similar herd protection effects for the 6 additional serotypes included in PCV13, and project a new low post-introduction equilibrium of vaccine-type disease in 2018/19. Applying these incidence projections for both invasive disease and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and using recent measures of vaccine efficacy against these endpoints for ≥65 year olds, we estimate that vaccination of a cohort of immunocompetent 65 year olds with PCV13 would directly prevent 26 cases of IPD, 69 cases of CAP and 15 deaths. The associated cost-effectiveness ratio is £257,771 per QALY gained (using list price of £49.10 per dose and £7.51 administration costs) and is therefore considered not cost-effective. To obtain a cost-effective programme the price per dose would need to be negative. The results were sensitive to disease incidence, waning vaccine protection and case fatality rate; despite this, the overall conclusion was robust. Conclusions: Vaccinating immunocompetent individuals aged ≥65 years with PCV13 is efficacious. However the absolute incidence of vaccine-type disease will likely become very low due to wider benefits of the childhood PCV13 vaccination programme, such that a specific PCV13 vaccination programme targeting the immunocompetent elderly would not be cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Alcohol misuse in England costs around £7.3 billion (US$12.2 billion) annually from lost productivity and absenteeism. Delivering brief alcohol interventions to employees as part of a health check may be acceptable, particularly with online delivery which can provide privacy for this stigmatised behaviour. Research to support this approach is limited and methodologically weak. The aim was to determine the effectiveness of online screening and personalised feedback on alcohol consumption, delivered in a workplace as part of a health check. Methods and Findings: This two-group online individually randomised controlled trial recruited employees from a UK-based private sector organisation (approx. 100,000 employees). 3,375 employees completed the online health check in the three week recruitment period. Of these, 1,330 (39%) scored five or more on the AUDIT-C (indicating alcohol misuse) and were randomised to receive personalised feedback on their alcohol intake, alongside feedback on other health behaviours (n = 659), or to receive feedback on all health behaviours except alcohol intake (n = 671). Participants were mostly male (75%), with a median age of 48 years and half were in managerial positions (55%). Median Body Mass Index was 26, 12% were smokers, median time undertaking moderate/vigorous physical activity a week was 173 minutes and median fruit and vegetable consumption was three portions a day. Eighty percent (n = 1,066) of participants completed follow-up questionnaires at three months. An intention to treat analysis found no difference between experimental groups for past week drinking (primary outcome) (5.6% increase associated with the intervention (95% CI −4.7% to 16.9%; p = .30)), AUDIT (measure of alcohol-related harm) and health utility (EQ-5D). Conclusions: There was no evidence to support the use of personalised feedback within an online health check for reducing alcohol consumption among employees in this organisation. Further research is needed on how to engage a larger proportion of employees in screening. Trial Registration: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Register [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2011–2012 a large pertussis outbreak occurred in England. This provided an opportunity to estimate the disease burden in those aged 5 years and over. As pertussis is likely to be under reported both laboratory-confirmed and non-confirmed cases were included. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed cases of pertussis, as well as their coughing but non-confirmed household members, were sent a questionnaire that collected information on clinical features and quality of life for the most severe day of disease and the day the patient filled in the questionnaire. The EuroQol-5 dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) was used to evaluate quality of life. The duration of symptoms was obtained by contacting the patient every two weeks until symptoms stopped. Results: Data for 535 (out of 1262) laboratory confirmed pertussis patients and 44 (out of 140) coughing household contacts was available for analysis. On the most severe day, 56% of laboratory-confirmed cases reported they had 20+ more paroxysms, 58% reported they had a severe cough and 46% reported disruption of sleep for more than 4 hours. For non-confirmed coughing household contacts there were a similar number of coughing spells per day at the height, though the cough was reported to be less severe and to cause less sleep disruption. The main clinical symptoms on the worst day for both were shortness of breath, tiredness, sore ribs and vomiting. The duration of symptoms for both patient groups was around 160 days (162 and 168 days). Under base case assumptions the overall loss of quality of life was 0.097 QALY (0.089–0.106) for confirmed pertussis cases and 0.0365 QALY (0.023–0.054) for coughing household contacts. Conclusion: Pertussis is a serious disease in those aged 5 years and over, causing disruption of sleep and daily activities over long period of time. The burden of illness due to undiagnosed pertussis is also considerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Changes in children’s contact patterns between termtime and school holidays affect the transmission of several respiratory-spread infections. Transmission of varicella zoster virus (VZV), the causative agent of chickenpox, has also been linked to the school calendar in several settings, but temporal changes in the proportion of young children attending childcare centres may have influenced this relationship. Methods: We used two modelling methods (a simple difference equations model and a Time series Susceptible Infectious Recovered (TSIR) model) to estimate fortnightly values of a contact parameter (the per capita rate of effective contact between two specific individuals), using GP consultation data for chickenpox in England and Wales from 1967–2008. Results: The estimated contact parameters were 22–31% lower during the summer holiday than during termtime. The relationship between the contact parameter and the school calendar did not change markedly over the years analysed. Conclusions: In England and Wales, reductions in contact between children during the school summer holiday lead to a reduction in the transmission of VZV. These estimates are relevant for predicting how closing schools and nurseries may affect an outbreak of an emerging respiratory-spread pathogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions. Methods: In scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values. Results: In scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030. Conclusions: The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]