1. Predicting biomass of rice with intermediate traits: Modeling method combining crop growth models and genomic prediction models
- Author
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Hiroyoshi Iwata, Hitomi Wakatsuki, Takuma Yoshioka, Takeshi Hayashi, Toru Aoike, Masanori Yamasaki, Hiromi Kajiya-Kanegae, Toshihiro Hasegawa, Yusuke Toda, Hiroshi Nakagawa, and Kaworu Ebana
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,0301 basic medicine ,Leaves ,Heredity ,Biomass ,Plant Science ,medicine.disease_cause ,01 natural sciences ,Environmental data ,Machine Learning ,Mathematical and Statistical Techniques ,Statistics ,Multidisciplinary ,Plant Anatomy ,Physics ,Electromagnetic Radiation ,Crop growth ,Eukaryota ,food and beverages ,Agriculture ,Genomics ,Plants ,Phenotype ,Experimental Organism Systems ,Field trial ,Physical Sciences ,Medicine ,Solar Radiation ,Genome, Plant ,Research Article ,Computer and Information Sciences ,Genotype ,Science ,Crops ,Biology ,Research and Analysis Methods ,Crop ,03 medical and health sciences ,Artificial Intelligence ,Plant and Algal Models ,Genetics ,medicine ,Grasses ,Plant breeding ,Statistical Methods ,Models, Genetic ,Organisms ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Oryza ,Agronomy ,Plant Breeding ,030104 developmental biology ,Animal Studies ,Rice ,Mathematics ,Predictive modelling ,Forecasting ,Crop Science ,010606 plant biology & botany - Abstract
Genomic prediction (GP) is expected to become a powerful technology for accelerating the genetic improvement of complex crop traits. Several GP models have been proposed to enhance their applications in plant breeding, including environmental effects and genotype-by-environment interactions (G×E). In this study, we proposed a two-step model for plant biomass prediction wherein environmental information and growth-related traits were considered. First, the growth-related traits were predicted by GP. Second, the biomass was predicted from the GP-predicted values and environmental data using machine learning or crop growth modeling. We applied the model to a 2-year-old field trial dataset of recombinant inbred lines of japonica rice and evaluated the prediction accuracy with training and testing data by cross-validation performed over two years. Therefore, the proposed model achieved an equivalent or a higher correlation between the observed and predicted values (0.53 and 0.65 for each year, respectively) than the model in which biomass was directly predicted by GP (0.40 and 0.65 for each year, respectively). This result indicated that including growth-related traits enhanced accuracy of biomass prediction. Our findings are expected to contribute to the spread of the use of GP in crop breeding by enabling more precise prediction of environmental effects on crop traits.
- Published
- 2020