Search

Mixed models: Models allowing for continuous heterogeneity by assuming that value of one or more parameters follow a specified distribution have become increasingly popular. This is known as ‘mixing’ parameters, and it is standard practice by researchers - and the default option in many statistical programs - to base test statistics for mixed models on simulations using asymmetric draws (e.g. Halton draws). Problem 1: Inconsistent LR tests due to asymmetric draws:: This paper shows that when the estimated likelihood functions depend on standard deviations of mixed parameters this practice is very likely to cause misleading test results for the number of draws usually used today. The paper illustrates that increasing the number of draws is a very inefficient solution strategy requiring very large numbers of draws to ensure against misleading test statistics. The main conclusion of this paper is that the problem can be solved completely by using fully antithetic draws, and that using one dimensionally antithetic draws is not enough to solve the problem. Problem 2: Maintaining the correct dimensions when reducing the mixing distribution:: A second point of the paper is that even when fully antithetic draws are used, models reducing the dimension of the mixing distribution must replicate the relevant dimensions of the quasi-random draws in the simulation of the restricted likelihood. Again this is not standard in research or statistical programs. The paper therefore recommends using fully antithetic draws replicating the relevant dimensions of the quasi-random draws in the simulation of the restricted likelihood and that this should become the default option in statistical programs. JEL classification: C15; C25. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting), significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Penalized selection criteria like AIC or BIC are among the most popular methods for variable selection. Their theoretical properties have been studied intensively and are well understood, but making use of them in case of high-dimensional data is difficult due to the non-convex optimization problem induced by L0 penalties. In this paper we introduce an adaptive ridge procedure (AR), where iteratively weighted ridge problems are solved whose weights are updated in such a way that the procedure converges towards selection with L0 penalties. After introducing AR its specific shrinkage properties are studied in the particular case of orthogonal linear regression. Based on extensive simulations for the non-orthogonal case as well as for Poisson regression the performance of AR is studied and compared with SCAD and adaptive LASSO. Furthermore an efficient implementation of AR in the context of least-squares segmentation is presented. The paper ends with an illustrative example of applying AR to analyze GWAS data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the theory of belief functions, the approximation of a basic belief assignment (BBA) is for reducing the high computational cost especially when large number of focal elements are available. In traditional BBA approximation approaches, a focal element’s own characteristics such as the mass assignment and the cardinality, are usually used separately or jointly as criteria for the removal of focal elements. Besides the computational cost, the distance between the original BBA and the approximated one is also concerned, which represents the loss of information in BBA approximation. In this paper, an iterative approximation approach is proposed based on maximizing the closeness, i.e., minimizing the distance between the approximated BBA in current iteration and the BBA obtained in the previous iteration, where one focal element is removed in each iteration. The iteration stops when the desired number of focal elements is reached. The performance evaluation approaches for BBA approximations are also discussed and used to compare and evaluate traditional BBA approximations and the newly proposed one in this paper, which include traditional time-based way, closeness-based way and new proposed ones. Experimental results and related analyses are provided to show the rationality and efficiency of our proposed new BBA approximation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are becoming ubiquitous in everyday life due to their applications in weather forecasting, surveillance, implantable sensors for health monitoring and other plethora of applications. WSN is equipped with hundreds and thousands of small sensor nodes. As the size of a sensor node decreases, critical issues such as limited energy, computation time and limited memory become even more highlighted. In such a case, network lifetime mainly depends on efficient use of available resources. Organizing nearby nodes into clusters make it convenient to efficiently manage each cluster as well as the overall network. In this paper, we extend our previous work of grid-based hybrid network deployment approach, in which merge and split technique has been proposed to construct network topology. Constructing topology through our proposed technique, in this paper we have used analytical network process (ANP) model for cluster head selection in WSN. Five distinct parameters: distance from nodes (DistNode), residual energy level (REL), distance from centroid (DistCent), number of times the node has been selected as cluster head (TCH) and merged node (MN) are considered for CH selection. The problem of CH selection based on these parameters is tackled as a multi criteria decision system, for which ANP method is used for optimum cluster head selection. Main contribution of this work is to check the applicability of ANP model for cluster head selection in WSN. In addition, sensitivity analysis is carried out to check the stability of alternatives (available candidate nodes) and their ranking for different scenarios. The simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms existing energy efficient clustering protocols in terms of optimum CH selection and minimizing CH reselection process that results in extending overall network lifetime. This paper analyzes that ANP method used for CH selection with better understanding of the dependencies of different components involved in the evaluation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information carried by an image can be distorted due to different image processing steps introduced by different electronic means of storage and communication. Therefore, development of algorithms which can automatically assess a quality of the image in a way that is consistent with human evaluation is important. In this paper, an approach to image quality assessment (IQA) is proposed in which the quality of a given image is evaluated jointly by several IQA approaches. At first, in order to obtain such joint models, an optimisation problem of IQA measures aggregation is defined, where a weighted sum of their outputs, i.e., objective scores, is used as the aggregation operator. Then, the weight of each measure is considered as a decision variable in a problem of minimisation of root mean square error between obtained objective scores and subjective scores. Subjective scores reflect ground-truth and involve evaluation of images by human observers. The optimisation problem is solved using a genetic algorithm, which also selects suitable measures used in aggregation. Obtained multimeasures are evaluated on four largest widely used image benchmarks and compared against state-of-the-art full-reference IQA approaches. Results of comparison reveal that the proposed approach outperforms other competing measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To characterize the impact of widespread inventory management policies on stock-outs of essential drugs in Zambia’s health clinics and develop related recommendations. Methods: Daily clinic storeroom stock levels of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) products in 2009–2010 were captured in 145 facilities through photography and manual transcription of paper forms, then used to determine historical stock-out levels and estimate demand patterns. Delivery lead-times and estimates of monthly facility accessibility were obtained through worker surveys. A simulation model was constructed and validated for predictive accuracy against historical stock-outs, then used to evaluate various changes potentially affecting product availability. Findings: While almost no stock-outs of AL products were observed during Q4 2009 consistent with primary analysis, up to 30% of surveyed facilities stocked out of some AL product during Q1 2010 despite ample inventory being simultaneously available at the national warehouse. Simulation experiments closely reproduced these results and linked them to the use of average past monthly issues and failure to capture lead-time variability in current inventory control policies. Several inventory policy enhancements currently recommended by USAID | DELIVER were found to have limited impact on product availability. Conclusions: Inventory control policies widely recommended and used for distributing medicines in sub-Saharan Africa directly account for a substantial fraction of stock-outs observed in common situations involving demand seasonality and facility access interruptions. Developing central capabilities in peripheral demand forecasting and inventory control is critical. More rigorous independent peer-reviewed research on pharmaceutical supply chain management in low-income countries is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper, Welsh, Lindenmayer and Donnelly (WLD) question the usefulness of models that estimate species occupancy while accounting for detectability. WLD claim that these models are difficult to fit and argue that disregarding detectability can be better than trying to adjust for it. We think that this conclusion and subsequent recommendations are not well founded and may negatively impact the quality of statistical inference in ecology and related management decisions. Here we respond to WLD's claims, evaluating in detail their arguments, using simulations and/or theory to support our points. In particular, WLD argue that both disregarding and accounting for imperfect detection lead to the same estimator performance regardless of sample size when detectability is a function of abundance. We show that this, the key result of their paper, only holds for cases of extreme heterogeneity like the single scenario they considered. Our results illustrate the dangers of disregarding imperfect detection. When ignored, occupancy and detection are confounded: the same naïve occupancy estimates can be obtained for very different true levels of occupancy so the size of the bias is unknowable. Hierarchical occupancy models separate occupancy and detection, and imprecise estimates simply indicate that more data are required for robust inference about the system in question. As for any statistical method, when underlying assumptions of simple hierarchical models are violated, their reliability is reduced. Resorting in those instances where hierarchical occupancy models do no perform well to the naïve occupancy estimator does not provide a satisfactory solution. The aim should instead be to achieve better estimation, by minimizing the effect of these issues during design, data collection and analysis, ensuring that the right amount of data is collected and model assumptions are met, considering model extensions where appropriate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ellipse fitting is a highly researched and mature topic. Surprisingly, however, no existing method has thus far considered the data point eccentricity in its ellipse fitting procedure. Here, we introduce the concept of eccentricity of a data point, in analogy with the idea of ellipse eccentricity. We then show empirically that, irrespective of ellipse fitting method used, the root mean square error (RMSE) of a fit increases with the eccentricity of the data point set. The main contribution of the paper is based on the hypothesis that if the data point set were pre-processed to strategically add additional data points in regions of high eccentricity, then the quality of a fit could be improved. Conditional validity of this hypothesis is demonstrated mathematically using a model scenario. Based on this confirmation we propose an algorithm that pre-processes the data so that data points with high eccentricity are replicated. The improvement of ellipse fitting is then demonstrated empirically in real-world application of 3D reconstruction of a plant root system for phenotypic analysis. The degree of improvement for different underlying ellipse fitting methods as a function of data noise level is also analysed. We show that almost every method tested, irrespective of whether it minimizes algebraic error or geometric error, shows improvement in the fit following data augmentation using the proposed pre-processing algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Vitamin K antagonist (VKA) therapy is safer and more effective when patients have a high time within the therapeutic range and low international normalised ratio variability. The SAMe-TT2R2 score aims to identify those at risk for poor VKA control. Objectives: To evaluate the predictive value and clinical usefulness of the SAMe-TT2R2 score to identify those at risk for poor VKA control. Methods: We performed a systematic review in MEDLINE and Embase for original research papers assessing the SAMe-TT2R2’s relation to poor TTR. We performed a meta-analysis where scores ≥ 2 and ≥ 3 predicting TTR < 70%. When studies evaluated other cutoffs for TTR or SAMe-TT2R2, they were harmonised by multiple simulations with patient characteristics from the individual studies, if the data were available. Results: 16 studies were identified and used in the meta-analysis: 4 and 2 times directly, 8 and 8 times harmonised for scores ≥ 2 and ≥ 3, respectively (not all studies provided information about both cutoffs). The sensitivities and specificities were too heterogeneous to pool. The positive likelihood ratios were 1.25 (1.14-1.38) for a score ≥ 2, and 1.24 (1.09-1.40) for a score ≥ 3; the negative ones were 0.87 (0.82-0.93) and 0.96 (0.91-1.02), respectively. This shows that the post-test probabilities hardly differ from the prior probability (prevalence). Conclusion: The SAMe-TT2R2 score does predict low TTR, but the effect is small. Its effect on individual patients is too limited to be clinically useful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we evaluate the three main methods for correcting the susceptibility-induced artefact in diffusion-weighted magnetic-resonance (DW-MR) data, and assess how correction is affected by the susceptibility field’s interaction with motion. The susceptibility artefact adversely impacts analysis performed on the data and is typically corrected in post-processing. Correction strategies involve either registration to a structural image, the application of an acquired field-map or the use of additional images acquired with different phase-encoding. Unfortunately, the choice of which method to use is made difficult by the absence of any systematic comparisons of them. In this work we quantitatively evaluate these methods, by extending and employing a recently proposed framework that allows for the simulation of realistic DW-MR datasets with artefacts. Our analysis separately evaluates the ability for methods to correct for geometric distortions and to recover lost information in regions of signal compression. In terms of geometric distortions, we find that registration-based methods offer the poorest correction. Field-mapping techniques are better, but are influenced by noise and partial volume effects, whilst multiple phase-encode methods performed best. We use our simulations to validate a popular surrogate metric of correction quality, the comparison of corrected data acquired with AP and LR phase-encoding, and apply this surrogate to real datasets. Furthermore, we demonstrate that failing to account for the interaction of the susceptibility field with head movement leads to increased errors when analysing DW-MR data. None of the commonly used post-processing methods account for this interaction, and we suggest this may be a valuable area for future methods development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an adaptive fuzzy sliding mode controller is proposed to control a two-stage single-phase photovoltaic (PV) grid-connected inverter. Two key technologies are discussed in the presented PV system. An incremental conductance method with adaptive step is adopted to track the maximum power point (MPP) by controlling the duty cycle of the controllable power switch of the boost DC-DC converter. An adaptive fuzzy sliding mode controller with an integral sliding surface is developed for the grid-connected inverter where a fuzzy system is used to approach the upper bound of the system nonlinearities. The proposed strategy has strong robustness for the sliding mode control can be designed independently and disturbances can be adaptively compensated. Simulation results of a PV grid-connected system verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, demonstrating the satisfactory robustness and performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we consider the problem of restoration of a image contaminated by a mixture of Gaussian and impulse noises. We propose a new statistic called ROADGI which improves the well-known Rank-Ordered Absolute Differences (ROAD) statistic for detecting points contaminated with the impulse noise in this context. Combining ROADGI statistic with the method of weights optimization we obtain a new algorithm called Optimal Weights Mixed Filter (OWMF) to deal with the mixed noise. Our simulation results show that the proposed filter is effective for mixed noises, as well as for single impulse noise and for single Gaussian noise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of the correct number of dimensions is a long-standing problem in psychometrics. Several methods have been proposed, such as parallel analysis (PA), Kaiser-Guttman’s eigenvalue-greater-than-one rule, multiple average partial procedure (MAP), the maximum-likelihood approaches that use fit indexes as BIC and EBIC and the less used and studied approach called very simple structure (VSS). In the present paper a new approach to estimate the number of dimensions will be introduced and compared via simulation to the traditional techniques pointed above. The approach proposed in the current paper is called exploratory graph analysis (EGA), since it is based on the graphical lasso with the regularization parameter specified using EBIC. The number of dimensions is verified using the walktrap, a random walk algorithm used to identify communities in networks. In total, 32,000 data sets were simulated to fit known factor structures, with the data sets varying across different criteria: number of factors (2 and 4), number of items (5 and 10), sample size (100, 500, 1000 and 5000) and correlation between factors (orthogonal, .20, .50 and .70), resulting in 64 different conditions. For each condition, 500 data sets were simulated using lavaan. The result shows that the EGA performs comparable to parallel analysis, EBIC, eBIC and to Kaiser-Guttman rule in a number of situations, especially when the number of factors was two. However, EGA was the only technique able to correctly estimate the number of dimensions in the four-factor structure when the correlation between factors were .7, showing an accuracy of 100% for a sample size of 5,000 observations. Finally, the EGA was used to estimate the number of factors in a real dataset, in order to compare its performance with the other six techniques tested in the simulation study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid worldwide evolution of LEDs as light sources has brought new challenges, which means that new methods are needed and new algorithms have to be developed. Since the majority of LED luminaries are of the multi-source type, established methods for the design of light engines cannot be used in the design of LED light engines. This is because in the latter case what is involved is not just the design of a good reflector or projector lens, but the design of several lenses which have to work together in order to achieve satisfactory results. Since lenses can also be bought off the shelf from several manufacturers, it should be possible to combine together different off the shelf lenses in order to design a good light engine. However, with so many different lenses to choose from, it is almost impossible to find an optimal combination by hand, which means that some optimization algorithms need to be applied. In order for them to work properly, it is first necessary to describe the input data (i.e. spatial light distribution) in a functional form using as few as possible parameters. In this paper the focus is on the approximation of the input data, and the implementation of the well-known mathematical procedure for the separation of linear and nonlinear parameters, which can provide a substantial increase in performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deployment of large number of femtocell base stations allows us to extend the coverage and efficiently utilize resources in a low cost manner. However, the small cell size of femtocell networks can result in frequent handovers to the mobile user, and consequently throughput degradation. Thus, in this paper, we propose predictive association control schemes to improve the system’s effective throughput. Our design focuses on reducing handover frequency without impacting on throughput. The proposed schemes determine handover decisions that contribute most to the network throughput and are proper for distributed implementations. The simulation results show significant gains compared with existing methods in terms of handover frequency and network throughput perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a fast error-free tracking method applicable to sequences of two and three dimensional images. The core idea is to use Quadtree (resp. Octree) data structures for representing the spatial discretization of an image in two (resp. three) spatial dimensions. This representation enables one to merge into large computational cells the regions that can be faithfully described with such a coarse representation, thus significantly reducing the total number of degrees of freedom that are processed, without compromising accuracy. This encoding is particularly effective in the case of algorithms based on moving fronts, since the adaptive refinement provides a natural means to focus the processing resources on information near the moving front. In this paper, we use an existing contour based tracker and reformulate it to the case of Quad-/Oc-tree data structures. Relevant mathematical assumptions and derivations are presented for this purpose. We then demonstrate that, on standard bio-medical image sequences, a speed up of 5X is easily achieved in 2D and about 10X in 3D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Normalization procedures are widely used in high-throughput genomic data analyses to remove various technological noise and variations. They are known to have profound impact to the subsequent gene differential expression analysis. Although there has been some research in evaluating different normalization procedures, few attempts have been made to systematically evaluate the gene detection performances of normalization procedures from the bias-variance trade-off point of view, especially with strong gene differentiation effects and large sample size. In this paper, we conduct a thorough study to evaluate the effects of normalization procedures combined with several commonly used statistical tests and MTPs under different configurations of effect size and sample size. We conduct theoretical evaluation based on a random effect model, as well as simulation and biological data analyses to verify the results. Based on our findings, we provide some practical guidance for selecting a suitable normalization procedure under different scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the appetite for the investment and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in RFID companies is growing rapidly. Although the huge number of papers have addressed the topic of business valuation models based on statistical methods or neural network methods, only a few are dedicated to constructing a general framework for business valuation that improves the performance with network graph (NG) and the corresponding community mining (CM) method. In this study, an NG based business valuation model is proposed, where real options approach (ROA) integrating CM method is designed to predict the company’s net profit as well as estimate the company value. Three improvements are made in the proposed valuation model: Firstly, our model figures out the credibility of the node belonging to each community and clusters the network according to the evolutionary Bayesian method. Secondly, the improved bacterial foraging optimization algorithm (IBFOA) is adopted to calculate the optimized Bayesian posterior probability function. Finally, in IBFOA, bi-objective method is used to assess the accuracy of prediction, and these two objectives are combined into one objective function using a new Pareto boundary method. The proposed method returns lower forecasting error than 10 well-known forecasting models on 3 different time interval valuing tasks for the real-life simulation of RFID companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

System restoration from cascading failures is an integral part of the overall defense against catastrophic breakdown in networked critical infrastructures. From the outbreak of cascading failures to the system complete breakdown, actions can be taken to prevent failure propagation through the entire network. While most analysis efforts have been carried out before or after cascading failures, restoration during cascading failures has been rarely studied. In this paper, we present a modeling framework to investigate the effects of in-process restoration, which depends strongly on the timing and strength of the restoration actions. Furthermore, in the model we also consider additional disturbances to the system due to restoration actions themselves. We demonstrate that the effect of restoration is also influenced by the combination of system loading level and restoration disturbance. Our modeling framework will help to provide insights on practical restoration from cascading failures and guide improvements of reliability and resilience of actual network systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Meta-analyses frequently include studies with small sample sizes. Researchers usually fail to account for sampling error in the reported within-study variances; they model the observed study-specific effect sizes with the within-study variances and treat these sample variances as if they were the true variances. However, this sampling error may be influential when sample sizes are small. This article illustrates that the sampling error may lead to substantial bias in meta-analysis results. Methods: We conducted extensive simulation studies to assess the bias caused by sampling error. Meta-analyses with continuous and binary outcomes were simulated with various ranges of sample size and extents of heterogeneity. We evaluated the bias and the confidence interval coverage for five commonly-used effect sizes (i.e., the mean difference, standardized mean difference, odds ratio, risk ratio, and risk difference). Results: Sampling error did not cause noticeable bias when the effect size was the mean difference, but the standardized mean difference, odds ratio, risk ratio, and risk difference suffered from this bias to different extents. The bias in the estimated overall odds ratio and risk ratio was noticeable even when each individual study had more than 50 samples under some settings. Also, Hedges’ g, which is a bias-corrected estimate of the standardized mean difference within studies, might lead to larger bias than Cohen’s d in meta-analysis results. Conclusions: Cautions are needed to perform meta-analyses with small sample sizes. The reported within-study variances may not be simply treated as the true variances, and their sampling error should be fully considered in such meta-analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing use of species distribution modeling (SDM) has raised new concerns regarding the inaccuracies, misunderstanding, and misuses of this important tool. One of those possible pitfalls − collinearity among environmental predictors − is assumed as an important source of model uncertainty, although it has not been subjected to a detailed evaluation in recent SDM studies. It is expected that collinearity will increase uncertainty in model parameters and decrease statistical power. Here we use a virtual species approach to compare models built using subsets of PCA-derived variables with models based on the original highly correlated climate variables. Moreover, we evaluated whether modelling algorithms and species data characteristics generate models with varying sensitivity to collinearity. As expected, collinearity among predictors decreases the efficiency and increases the uncertainty of species distribution models. Nevertheless, the intensity of the effect varied according to the algorithm properties: more complex procedures behaved better than simple envelope models. This may support the claim that complex models such as Maxent take advantage of existing collinearity in finding the best set of parameters. The interaction of the different factors with species characteristics (centroid and tolerance in environmental space) highlighted the importance of the so-called “idiosyncrasy in species responses” to model efficiency, but differences in prevalence may represent a better explanation. However, even models with low accuracy to predict suitability of individual cells may provide meaningful information on the estimation of range-size, a key species-trait for macroecological studies. We concluded that the use of PCA-derived variables is advised both to control the negative effects of collinearity and as a more objective solution for the problem of variable selection in studies dealing with large number of species with heterogeneous responses to environmental variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have developed a very simple method, termed absorbance summation (AS), for comparing protein concentrations between samples in ELISA assays without a standard. This method sums the observed absorbance values from all dilutions to obtain one data point for each sample to be used for comparison. AS is less computationally intensive than fitting sigmoidal curves, and it avoids the difficulty of parameter estimation for samples with absorbance values lying primarily at the lower tail of the curve. Our simulation studies showed that it performs much better than the sigmoidal curve fitting method and the conventional endpoint titer method. The power of this simple method is as high as the formal curve fitting followed by the estimation of area under the curve (AUC). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a nonparametric shrinkage estimator for the median survival times from several independent samples of right-censored data, which combines the samples and hypothesis information to improve the efficiency. We compare efficiency of the proposed shrinkage estimation procedure to unrestricted estimator and combined estimator through extensive simulation studies. Our results indicate that performance of these estimators depends on the strength of homogeneity of the medians. When homogeneity holds, the combined estimator is the most efficient estimator. However, it becomes inconsistent when homogeneity fails. On the other hand, the proposed shrinkage estimator remains efficient. Its efficiency decreases as the equality of the survival medians is deviated, but is expected to be as good as or equal to the unrestricted estimator. Our simulation studies also indicate that the proposed shrinkage estimator is robust to moderate levels of censoring. We demonstrate application of these methods to estimating median time for trauma patients to receive red blood cells in the Prospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the variational data assimilation (VarDA), the typical way for gradient computation is using the adjoint method. However, the adjoint method has many problems, such as low accuracy, difficult implementation and considerable complexity, for high-dimensional models. To overcome these shortcomings, a new data assimilation method based on dual number automatic differentiation (AD) is proposed. The important advantages of the method lies in that the coding of the tangent-linear/adjoint model is no longer necessary and that the value of the cost function and its corresponding gradient vector can be obtained simultaneously through only one forward computation in dual number space. The numerical simulations for data assimilation are implemented for a typical nonlinear advection equation and a parabolic equation. The results demonstrate that the new method can reconstruct the initial conditions of the high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system conveniently and accurately. Additionally, the estimated initial values can converge to the true values quickly, even if noise is present in the observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildlife populations often exhibit unequal catchability between subgroups such as males and females. This heterogeneity of capture probabilities can bias both population size and sex ratio estimates. Several authors have suggested that this problem can be overcome by treating males and females as separate populations and calculating a population estimate for each of them. However, this suggestion has received little testing, and many researchers do not implement it. Therefore, we used two simulations to test the utility of this method. One simulated a closed population, while the other simulated an open population and used the robust design to calculate population sizes. We tested both simulations with multiple levels of heterogeneity, and we used a third simulation to test several methods for detecting heterogeneity of capture probabilities. We found that treating males and females as separate populations produced more accurate population and sex ratio estimates. The benefits of this method were particularly pronounced for sex ratio estimates. When males and females were included as a single population, the sex ratio estimates became inaccurate when even slight heterogeneity was present, but when males and females were treated separately, the estimates were accurate even when large biases were present. Nevertheless, treating males and females separately reduced precision, and this method may not be appropriate when capture and recapture rates are low. None of the methods for detecting heterogeneity were robust, and we do not recommend that researchers rely on them. Rather, we suggest separating populations by sex, age, or other subgroups whenever sample sizes permit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High dimensional data are commonly encountered in various scientific fields and pose great challenges to modern statistical analysis. To address this issue different penalized regression procedures have been introduced in the litrature, but these methods cannot cope with the problem of outliers and leverage points in the heavy tailed high dimensional data. For this purppose, a new Robust Adaptive Lasso (RAL) method is proposed which is based on pearson residuals weighting scheme. The weight function determines the compatibility of each observations and downweight it if they are inconsistent with the assumed model. It is observed that RAL estimator can correctly select the covariates with non-zero coefficients and can estimate parameters, simultaneously, not only in the presence of influential observations, but also in the presence of high multicolliearity. We also discuss the model selection oracle property and the asymptotic normality of the RAL. Simulations findings and real data examples also demonstrate the better performance of the proposed penalized regression approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we address the problem of noisy image super-resolution. Noisy low resolution (LR) image is always obtained in applications, while most of the existing algorithms assume that the LR image is noise-free. As to this situation, we present an algorithm for noisy image super-resolution which can achieve simultaneously image super-resolution and denoising. And in the training stage of our method, LR example images are noise-free. For different input LR images, even if the noise variance varies, the dictionary pair does not need to be retrained. For the input LR image patch, the corresponding high resolution (HR) image patch is reconstructed through weighted average of similar HR example patches. To reduce computational cost, we use the atoms of learned sparse dictionary as the examples instead of original example patches. We proposed a distance penalty model for calculating the weight, which can complete a second selection on similar atoms at the same time. Moreover, LR example patches removed mean pixel value are also used to learn dictionary rather than just their gradient features. Based on this, we can reconstruct initial estimated HR image and denoised LR image. Combined with iterative back projection, the two reconstructed images are applied to obtain final estimated HR image. We validate our algorithm on natural images and compared with the previously reported algorithms. Experimental results show that our proposed method performs better noise robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Single Variable Exchange algorithm is based on a simple idea; any model that can be simulated can be estimated by producing draws from the posterior distribution. We build on this simple idea by framing the Exchange algorithm as a mixture of Metropolis transition kernels and propose strategies that automatically select the more efficient transition kernels. In this manner we achieve significant improvements in convergence rate and autocorrelation of the Markov chain without relying on more than being able to simulate from the model. Our focus will be on statistical models in the Exponential Family and use two simple models from educational measurement to illustrate the contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To analyze the reliability of a complex system described by minimal paths, an empirical likelihood method is proposed to solve the reliability test problem when the subsystem distributions are unknown. Furthermore, we provide a reliability test statistic of the complex system and extract the limit distribution of the test statistic. Therefore, we can obtain the confidence interval for reliability and make statistical inferences. The simulation studies also demonstrate the theorem results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: It has been shown that an increasing number of adults deliberately feign attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), which demonstrates the need for new tests designed to detect feigned ADHD. Methods: An Embedded Figures Test (EFT) was developed for the detection of feigned ADHD in adulthood. EFT performance of 51 adults with ADHD was compared to the performance of 52 matched healthy individuals, as well as to 268 undergraduate students who were randomly allocated in a simulation design to one of four experimental conditions, i.e. a control group, a naïve simulation group, a symptom-coached simulation group or a test-coached simulation group. Furthermore, an independent sample of 11 adults with ADHD as well as a sample of 17 clinicians experienced in the work with adults with ADHD were assessed for further validation of the EFT. Results: The EFT was relatively easy to perform for both patients with ADHD and healthy comparisons as shown by low error rates and non-significant group differences. However, simulation groups differed from patients with ADHD by significant and large effects. An EFT index for the prediction of feigned ADHD was derived based on logistic regression coefficients. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) demonstrated good classification accuracy of feigned ADHD relative to ADHD (AUC = 94.8%), i.e. high sensitivity (88%) and specificity (90%). Conclusions: This study supports the utility of the EFT for the detection of feigned adult ADHD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Random encounter models can be used to estimate population abundance from indirect data collected by non-invasive sampling methods, such as track counts or camera-trap data. The classical Formozov–Malyshev–Pereleshin (FMP) estimator converts track counts into an estimate of mean population density, assuming that data on the daily movement distances of the animals are available. We utilize generalized linear models with spatio-temporal error structures to extend the FMP estimator into a flexible Bayesian modelling approach that estimates not only total population size, but also spatio-temporal variation in population density. We also introduce a weighting scheme to estimate density on habitats that are not covered by survey transects, assuming that movement data on a subset of individuals is available. We test the performance of spatio-temporal and temporal approaches by a simulation study mimicking the Finnish winter track count survey. The results illustrate how the spatio-temporal modelling approach is able to borrow information from observations made on neighboring locations and times when estimating population density, and that spatio-temporal and temporal smoothing models can provide improved estimates of total population size compared to the FMP method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computational modelling and simulation is increasingly being used to complement traditional wet-lab techniques when investigating the mechanistic behaviours of complex biological systems. In order to ensure computational models are fit for purpose, it is essential that the abstracted view of biology captured in the computational model, is clearly and unambiguously defined within a conceptual model of the biological domain (a domain model), that acts to accurately represent the biological system and to document the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. We present a domain model of the IL-1 stimulated NF-κB signalling pathway, which unambiguously defines the spatial, temporal and stochastic requirements for our future computational model. Through the development of this model, we observe that, in isolation, UML is not sufficient for the purpose of creating a domain model, and that a number of descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques provide complementary perspectives, in particular when modelling the heterogeneity of dynamics at the single-cell level. We believe this approach of using UML to define the structure and interactions within a complex system, along with statistics to define the stochastic and dynamic nature of complex systems, is crucial for ensuring that conceptual models of complex dynamical biosystems, which are developed using UML, are fit for purpose, and unambiguously define the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supervised machine learning methods typically require splitting data into multiple chunks for training, validating, and finally testing classifiers. For finding the best parameters of a classifier, training and validation are usually carried out with cross-validation. This is followed by application of the classifier with optimized parameters to a separate test set for estimating the classifier’s generalization performance. With limited data, this separation of test data creates a difficult trade-off between having more statistical power in estimating generalization performance versus choosing better parameters and fitting a better model. We propose a novel approach that we term “Cross-validation and cross-testing” improving this trade-off by re-using test data without biasing classifier performance. The novel approach is validated using simulated data and electrophysiological recordings in humans and rodents. The results demonstrate that the approach has a higher probability of discovering significant results than the standard approach of cross-validation and testing, while maintaining the nominal alpha level. In contrast to nested cross-validation, which is maximally efficient in re-using data, the proposed approach additionally maintains the interpretability of individual parameters. Taken together, we suggest an addition to currently used machine learning approaches which may be particularly useful in cases where model weights do not require interpretation, but parameters do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

RNA-Sequencing (RNA-Seq) provides valuable information for characterizing the molecular nature of the cells, in particular, identification of differentially expressed transcripts on a genome-wide scale. Unfortunately, cost and limited specimen availability often lead to studies with small sample sizes, and hypothesis testing on differential expression between classes with a small number of samples is generally limited. The problem is especially challenging when only one sample per each class exists. In this case, only a few methods among many that have been developed are applicable for identifying differentially expressed transcripts. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop a method able to accurately test differential expression with a limited number of samples, in particular non-replicated samples. We propose a local-pooled-error method for RNA-Seq data (LPEseq) to account for non-replicated samples in the analysis of differential expression. Our LPEseq method extends the existing LPE method, which was proposed for microarray data, to allow examination of non-replicated RNA-Seq experiments. We demonstrated the validity of the LPEseq method using both real and simulated datasets. By comparing the results obtained using the LPEseq method with those obtained from other methods, we found that the LPEseq method outperformed the others for non-replicated datasets, and showed a similar performance with replicated samples; LPEseq consistently showed high true discovery rate while not increasing the rate of false positives regardless of the number of samples. Our proposed LPEseq method can be effectively used to conduct differential expression analysis as a preliminary design step or for investigation of a rare specimen, for which a limited number of samples is available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of any probability distribution parameters is vital because imprecise and biased estimates can be misleading. In this study, we investigate a flexible power function distribution and introduced new two methods such as, probability weighted moments, and generalized probability weighted methods for its parameters. We compare their results with L-moments, trimmed L-moments by a simulation study and a real data example based on performance measures such as, mean square error and total deviation. We concluded that all the methods perform well in the case of large sample size (n>30), however, the generalized probability weighted moment method performs better for small sample size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a method of quantifying the effect of Questionable Research Practices (QRPs) on the results of meta-analyses. As an example we simulated a meta-analysis of a controversial telepathy protocol to assess the extent to which these experimental results could be explained by QRPs. Our simulations used the same numbers of studies and trials as the original meta-analysis and the frequencies with which various QRPs were applied in the simulated experiments were based on surveys of experimental psychologists. Results of both the meta-analysis and simulations were characterized by 4 metrics, two describing the trial and mean experiment hit rates (HR) of around 31%, where 25% is expected by chance, one the correlation between sample-size and hit-rate, and one the complete P-value distribution of the database. A genetic algorithm optimized the parameters describing the QRPs, and the fitness of the simulated meta-analysis was defined as the sum of the squares of Z-scores for the 4 metrics. Assuming no anomalous effect a good fit to the empirical meta-analysis was found only by using QRPs with unrealistic parameter-values. Restricting the parameter space to ranges observed in studies of QRP occurrence, under the untested assumption that parapsychologists use comparable QRPs, the fit to the published Ganzfeld meta-analysis with no anomalous effect was poor. We allowed for a real anomalous effect, be it unidentified QRPs or a paranormal effect, where the HR ranged from 25% (chance) to 31%. With an anomalous HR of 27% the fitness became F = 1.8 (p = 0.47 where F = 0 is a perfect fit). We conclude that the very significant probability cited by the Ganzfeld meta-analysis is likely inflated by QRPs, though results are still significant (p = 0.003) with QRPs. Our study demonstrates that quantitative simulations of QRPs can assess their impact. Since meta-analyses in general might be polluted by QRPs, this method has wide applicability outside the domain of experimental parapsychology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four of the most common limitations of the many available clustering methods are: i) the lack of a proper strategy to deal with outliers; ii) the need for a good a priori estimate of the number of clusters to obtain reasonable results; iii) the lack of a method able to detect when partitioning of a specific data set is not appropriate; and iv) the dependence of the result on the initialization. Here we propose Cross-clustering (CC), a partial clustering algorithm that overcomes these four limitations by combining the principles of two well established hierarchical clustering algorithms: Ward’s minimum variance and Complete-linkage. We validated CC by comparing it with a number of existing clustering methods, including Ward’s and Complete-linkage. We show on both simulated and real datasets, that CC performs better than the other methods in terms of: the identification of the correct number of clusters, the identification of outliers, and the determination of real cluster memberships. We used CC to cluster samples in order to identify disease subtypes, and on gene profiles, in order to determine groups of genes with the same behavior. Results obtained on a non-biological dataset show that the method is general enough to be successfully used in such diverse applications. The algorithm has been implemented in the statistical language R and is freely available from the CRAN contributed packages repository. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Signal detection in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) inherently involves the problem of testing a large number of hypotheses. A popular strategy to address this multiplicity is the control of the false discovery rate (FDR). In this work we consider the case where prior knowledge is available to partition the set of all hypotheses into disjoint subsets or families, e. g., by a-priori knowledge on the functionality of certain regions of interest. If the proportion of true null hypotheses differs between families, this structural information can be used to increase statistical power. We propose a two-stage multiple test procedure which first excludes those families from the analysis for which there is no strong evidence for containing true alternatives. We show control of the family-wise error rate at this first stage of testing. Then, at the second stage, we proceed to test the hypotheses within each non-excluded family and obtain asymptotic control of the FDR within each family at this second stage. Our main mathematical result is that this two-stage strategy implies asymptotic control of the FDR with respect to all hypotheses. In simulations we demonstrate the increased power of this new procedure in comparison with established procedures in situations with highly unbalanced families. Finally, we apply the proposed method to simulated and to real fMRI data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. Methods: We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. Results: The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. Conclusion: The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial scan statistics are widely used in various fields. The performance of these statistics is influenced by parameters, such as maximum spatial cluster size, and can be improved by parameter selection using performance measures. Current performance measures are based on the presence of clusters and are thus inapplicable to data sets without known clusters. In this work, we propose a novel overall performance measure called maximum clustering set–proportion (MCS-P), which is based on the likelihood of the union of detected clusters and the applied dataset. MCS-P was compared with existing performance measures in a simulation study to select the maximum spatial cluster size. Results of other performance measures, such as sensitivity and misclassification, suggest that the spatial scan statistic achieves accurate results in most scenarios with the maximum spatial cluster sizes selected using MCS-P. Given that previously known clusters are not required in the proposed strategy, selection of the optimal maximum cluster size with MCS-P can improve the performance of the scan statistic in applications without identified clusters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A run chart is a line graph of a measure plotted over time with the median as a horizontal line. The main purpose of the run chart is to identify process improvement or degradation, which may be detected by statistical tests for non-random patterns in the data sequence. Methods: We studied the sensitivity to shifts and linear drifts in simulated processes using the shift, crossings and trend rules for detecting non-random variation in run charts. Results: The shift and crossings rules are effective in detecting shifts and drifts in process centre over time while keeping the false signal rate constant around 5% and independent of the number of data points in the chart. The trend rule is virtually useless for detection of linear drift over time, the purpose it was intended for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large populations of free-roaming cats (FRCs) generate ongoing concerns for welfare of both individual animals and populations, for human public health, for viability of native wildlife populations, and for local ecological damage. Managing FRC populations is a complex task, without universal agreement on best practices. Previous analyses that use simulation modeling tools to evaluate alternative management methods have focused on relative efficacy of removal (or trap-return, TR), typically involving euthanasia, and sterilization (or trap-neuter-return, TNR) in demographically isolated populations. We used a stochastic demographic simulation approach to evaluate removal, permanent sterilization, and two postulated methods of temporary contraception for FRC population management. Our models include demographic connectivity to neighboring untreated cat populations through natural dispersal in a metapopulation context across urban and rural landscapes, and also feature abandonment of owned animals. Within population type, a given implementation rate of the TR strategy results in the most rapid rate of population decline and (when populations are isolated) the highest probability of population elimination, followed in order of decreasing efficacy by equivalent rates of implementation of TNR and temporary contraception. Even low levels of demographic connectivity significantly reduce the effectiveness of any management intervention, and continued abandonment is similarly problematic. This is the first demographic simulation analysis to consider the use of temporary contraception and account for the realities of FRC dispersal and owned cat abandonment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To date, most habitat models of cetaceans have relied on static and oceanographic covariates, and very few have related cetaceans directly to the distribution of their prey, as a result of the limited availability of prey data. By simulating the distribution of six functional micronekton groups between the surface and ≃1,000 m deep, the SEAPODYM model provides valuable insights into prey distributions. We used SEAPODYM outputs to investigate the habitat of three cetacean guilds with increasing energy requirements: sperm and beaked whales, Globicephalinae and Delphininae. We expected High Energy Requirements cetaceans to preferentially forage in habitats of high prey biomass and/or production, where they might easily meet their high energetic needs, and Low Energy Requirements cetaceans to forage in habitats of either high or low prey biomass and/or production. Cetacean sightings were collected from dedicated aerial surveys in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) and French Polynesia (FP). We examined cetacean densities in relation to simulated distributions of their potential prey using Generalised Additive Models and predicted their habitats in both regions. Results supported their known diving abilities, with Delphininae mostly related to prey present in the upper layers of the water column, and Globicephalinae and sperm and beaked whales also related to prey present in deeper layers. Explained deviances ranged from 9% for sperm and beaked whales in the SWIO to 47% for Globicephalinae in FP. Delphininae and Globicephalinae appeared to select areas where high prey biomass and/or production were available at shallow depths. In contrast, sperm and beaked whales showed less clear habitat selection. Using simulated prey distributions as predictors in cetacean habitat models is crucial to understand their strategies of habitat selection in the three dimensions of the ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by the lack of randomized controlled trials with an intervention-free control arm in the area of child undernutrition, we fit a trivariate model of weight-for-age z score (WAZ), height-for-age z score (HAZ) and diarrhea status to data from an observational study of supplementary feeding (100 kCal/day for children with WAZ ) in 17 Guatemalan communities. Incorporating time lags, intention to treat (i.e., to give supplementary food), seasonality and age interactions, we estimate how the effect of supplementary food on WAZ, HAZ and diarrhea status varies with a child’s age. We find that the effect of supplementary food on all 3 metrics decreases linearly with age from 6 to 20 mo and has little effect after 20 mo. We derive 2 food allocation policies that myopically (i.e., looking ahead 2 mo) minimize either the underweight or stunting severity – i.e., the sum of squared WAZ or HAZ scores for all children with WAZ or HAZ . A simulation study based on the statistical model predicts that the 2 derived policies reduce the underweight severity (averaged over all ages) by 13.6–14.1% and reduce the stunting severity at age 60 mo by 7.1–8.0% relative to the policy currently in use, where all policies have a budget that feeds % of children. While these findings need to be confirmed on additional data sets, it appears that in a low-dose (100 kCal/day) supplementary feeding setting in Guatemala, allocating food primarily to 6–12 mo infants can reduce the severity of underweight and stunting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International Model, which simulates the natural history and treatment of HIV. In this new model, the CEPAC Dynamic Model (CDM), the probability of HIV transmission per sexual encounter between short-term, long-term and commercial sex worker partners depends upon the HIV RNA and disease stage of the infected partner, condom use, and the circumcision status of the uninfected male partner. We included behavioral, demographic and biological values in the CDM and calibrated to HIV prevalence in South Africa pre-antiretroviral therapy. Using a multi-step fitting procedure based on Bayesian melding methodology, we performed 264,225 simulations of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and identified 3,750 parameter sets that created an epidemic and had behavioral characteristics representative of a South African population pre-ART. Of these parameter sets, 564 contributed 90% of the likelihood weight to the fit, and closely reproduced the UNAIDS HIV prevalence curve in South Africa from 1990–2002. The calibration was sensitive to changes in the rate of formation of short-duration partnerships and to the partnership acquisition rate among high-risk individuals, both of which impacted concurrency. Runs that closely fit to historical HIV prevalence reflect diverse ranges for individual parameter values and predict a wide range of possible steady-state prevalence in the absence of interventions, illustrating the value of the calibration procedure and utility of the model for evaluating interventions. This model, which includes detailed behavioral patterns and HIV natural history, closely fits HIV prevalence estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inference of population demographic history has vastly improved in recent years due to a number of technological and theoretical advances including the use of ancient DNA. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) stands among the most promising methods due to its simple theoretical fundament and exceptional flexibility. However, limited availability of user-friendly programs that perform ABC analysis renders it difficult to implement, and hence programming skills are frequently required. In addition, there is limited availability of programs able to deal with heterochronous data. Here we present the software BaySICS: Bayesian Statistical Inference of Coalescent Simulations. BaySICS provides an integrated and user-friendly platform that performs ABC analyses by means of coalescent simulations from DNA sequence data. It estimates historical demographic population parameters and performs hypothesis testing by means of Bayes factors obtained from model comparisons. Although providing specific features that improve inference from datasets with heterochronous data, BaySICS also has several capabilities making it a suitable tool for analysing contemporary genetic datasets. Those capabilities include joint analysis of independent tables, a graphical interface and the implementation of Markov-chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary models that make use of site-specific parameters have recently been criticized on the grounds that parameter estimates obtained under such models can be unreliable and lack theoretical guarantees of convergence. We present a simulation study providing empirical evidence that a simple version of the models in question does exhibit sensible convergence behavior and that additional taxa, despite not being independent of each other, lead to improved parameter estimates. Although it would be desirable to have theoretical guarantees of this, we argue that such guarantees would not be sufficient to justify the use of these models in practice. Instead, we emphasize the importance of taking the variance of parameter estimates into account rather than blindly trusting point estimates – this is standardly done by using the models to construct statistical hypothesis tests, which are then validated empirically via simulation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]