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Analyzing market states of the S&P 500 components on a time horizon January 3, 2006 to August 10, 2023, we found the appearance of a new market state not previously seen and we shall discuss its possible implications as an isolated state or as a beginning of a new general market condition. We study this in terms of the Pearson correlation matrix and relative correlation with respect to the S&P 500 index. In both cases the anomaly shows strongly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and its consequences are recognized as one of the most important challenges to the functioning of the Earth's ecosystem and humanity. However, the response to the threat posed by the climate crisis still seems inadequate. The question of which psychological factors cause people to engage (or not) in pro-environmental behavior remains without a comprehensive answer. The aim of this study is to establish the links between the cognitive (level of knowledge about climate change and degree of belief in climate myths), emotional (various climate emotions, especially climate anxiety) and behavioral aspects of attitudes towards the climate crisis and their determinants in the form of the Big Five personality domains and time perspectives. The stated hypotheses were verified by analyzing data collected in an online survey of 333 adults using knowledge tests and self-report methods, including psychological questionnaires (Climate Change Anxiety Scale by Clayton and Karazsia, Big Five Inventory–short version by Schupp and Gerlitz, and Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory by Zimbardo and Boyd), and measurement scales developed for this study (Climate myth belief scale, Climate emotion scale, and Inventories of current and planned pro-environmental activities). The results of stepwise regression analysis demonstrate the importance of the core personality traits and the dominant temporal perspective as determinants of belief in climate change myths, climate anxiety, as well as actual and planned pro-environmental behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The process of coping with loss and trauma is inextricably linked with subjective experiences and perceptions of time. The Time Perspective Framework, suggests that temporal frames influence an individual's actions, judgements, and the decisions that they make. Similarly, time perspective has been linked with psychosocial outcomes of trauma and loss (e.g. posttraumatic stress disorder). The aim of this study is to identify factors that may influence survivor's time perspective in order to determine if posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), posttraumatic growth (PTG), and temporal triggers (MIT) influenced different time perspective orientations. Methods: Data was collected via Qualtrics survey between July 2019 and July 2020. Measures included basic demographic characteristics, posttraumatic stress disorder checklist, posttraumatic growth inventory, an assessment of temporal triggers, and the Zimbardo time perspective inventory. A series of OLS regression analyses were estimated. Results: PTG was positively associated with future time perspective scores, whereas PTSD was associated with an increase in past negative orientation. The endorsement of temporal triggers like markers in time was negatively associated with present hedonistic scores and positively associated with future time perspective scores. Interestingly, PTSD, PTG and the endorsement of MIT were not associated with present time perspective scores. Discussion and implications: Identifying the relationship between PTSD, PTG, marker in time, and time perspective may offer important insights into treatment modalities that can improve outcomes for bereaved individuals. We discuss limitations of the current analysis and make recommendations for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key metric to determine the performance of a stock in a market is its return over different investment horizons (τ). Several works have observed heavy-tailed behavior in the distributions of returns in different markets, which are observable indicators of underlying complex dynamics. Such prior works study return distributions that are marginalized across the individual stocks in the market, and do not track statistics about the joint distributions of returns conditioned on different stocks, which would be useful for optimizing inter-stock asset allocation strategies. As a step towards this goal, we study emergent phenomena in the distributions of returns as captured by their pairwise correlations. In particular, we consider the pairwise (between stocks i, j) partial correlations of returns with respect to the market mode, ci,j(τ), (thus, correcting for the baseline return behavior of the market), over different time horizons (τ), and discover two novel emergent phenomena: (i) the standardized distributions of the ci,j(τ)'s are observed to be invariant of τ ranging from from 1000min (2.5 days) to 30000min (2.5 months); (ii) the scaling of the standard deviation of ci,j(τ)'s with τ admits good fits to simple model classes such as a power-law τ−λ or stretched exponential function e-τβ (λ, β > 0). Moreover, the parameters governing these fits provide a summary view of market health: for instance, in years marked by unprecedented financial crises—for example 2008 and 2020—values of λ (scaling exponent) are substantially lower. Finally, we demonstrate that the observed emergent behavior cannot be adequately supported by existing generative frameworks such as single- and multi-factor models. We introduce a promising agent-based Vicsek model that closes this gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has the world's largest carbon market in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, but its system needs to be improved and enhanced. In comparison, the European carbon market stands as the most mature and well-developed carbon market globally. Carbon trading prices, serving as a barometer for the carbon market, are significantly influenced by investor behavior. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the characteristics of carbon trading prices in both China and Europe, considering the impact of investor trading intervals and psychological expected returns. This study utilizes the Zipf method to characterize the dynamic behavior of carbon trading prices between China and Europe, conducting a comparative analysis. The results show distinctive asymmetry in the behavior of carbon trading prices in both markets. In the Chinese market, when τ < 277, the absolute deviation da(τ, ε) value gradually changes but consistently indicates a bullish trend. However, when τ ≥ 277, the da(τ, ε) value surges rapidly, reflecting a pronounced bullish sentiment among investors toward carbon trading prices in China. In the European market, within the sample period, regardless of variations in τ and ε, the da(τ, ε) value shows a linear upward trend, indicating a significant overall bullishness in prices. This suggests a higher probability of long-term bullishness in carbon trading prices. Investors' investment time scale (τ) and expected returns (ε) both influence the behavior of carbon trading prices in both China and Europe. Generally, a longer τ implies a higher probability of bullishness. As for ε, higher values lead to more extreme judgments on price movements, resulting in greater distortion in carbon trading prices. Short-term investors (τ<1 month) anticipate extreme fluctuations, exhibiting random behavior when ε < 0.15 and converging rapidly to extreme values of 1 or 0 when ε ≥ 0.15. Long-term investors (τ>quarter) are less biased, expressing a bullish outlook on both Chinese and European carbon prices. With increasing ε, the probability of bullishness either increases or decreases rapidly until reaching the saturation point. Once saturated, there is no further distortion in carbon price behavior. Furthermore, the Chinese carbon market displays a positive trend in carbon trading prices and a higher probability of long-term bullishness. For the European market, lower expected returns contribute to considerable carbon trading price fluctuations, exacerbating risk and uncertainty. The results of this study contribute to understanding the diverse trading behaviors in Chinese and European carbon markets and provide guidance for avoiding extreme volatility in carbon trading prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon price prediction is of great importance to regulators and participants in the carbon trading market. It is the basis for developing policies related to the carbon trading market and stabilizing that market. Considering the numerous factors that influence carbon prices in China, dimensionality reduction is needed to improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency. However, the traditional dimensionality reduction methods fail to fully consider the role of influencing factors, which has certain limitations. In this paper, a new dimensionality reduction method, namely scaled principal component analysis (s-PCA), is employed to improve the prediction accuracy of carbon prices. Firstly, a factor library that influence carbon prices is constructed from three perspectives: technical indicators, financial indicators and commodities indicators. Then, the s-PCA method is used to reduce the dimensionality of factors influencing carbon price. Next, two different methods are used to predict carbon prices, including traditional regression method and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. Finally, the economic value of the s-PCA method is examined by constructing investment portfolios. The empirical results of the Hubei Emissions Exchange show that the s-PCA model outperforms other competing models both in- and out-of-sample. In addition, the LSTM model could improve the performance of the s-PCA model in carbon price prediction. From a market timing perspective, investors can achieve a greater return and a larger Sharpe ratio using the s-PCA method than using other comparative methods and buy-and-hold strategy. Therefore, the s-PCA method is effective and robust in predicting carbon price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to test whether agility and change of direction speed (COD) are independent capacities using the same movement pattern (1) in terms of the completion time and (2) the entropy. Seventeen semi-professional female football players participated in the study. The agility task consisted of a Y-shaped (45° COD) task with three possible exit options (center, right and left) performed pre-planned or in reaction to the movement of two testers (i.e., blocking exit gates). Players' acceleration was measured using an inertial measurement unit. Entropy was calculated from the acceleration signal and completion time was extracted using a magnet-based timing system. Significantly greater times and lower entropy (p<0.001) were found during agility runs to pre-planned COD runs. Furthermore, weak to moderate correlations were found between COD and agility for both completion time (r = 0.29, p<0.001) and entropy (r = 0.53, p<0.001, r2 = 28.1%). These results highlight that COD speed and agility are independent capacities and skills, and as such, should be tested and trained as distinct, separate qualities. Modifying task constraints including a reactive stimulus (i.e., cognitive factors), is essential for increasing task complexity by altering the biomechanical and coordinative aspects of the action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Policy tools embody policy concepts and are essential to achieving policy objectives. The effective allocation of policy tools directly impacts the effectiveness of community governance and determines the modernization process of grassroots governance. We aim to analyze the logic of community governance policy tool selection, and then provide assistance for the modernization of grassroots governance. Methods: We selected 100 national and provincial government work reports and 63 policy documents related to community governance during China's "12th Five-Year Plan" to "14th Five-Year Plan" period as analysis samples. And build an analysis framework based on the three dimensions of time, space, and tools. We used Nvivo.20 software for text encoding analysis. Results: Based on the model framework, we analyze the results as follows. From the perspective of the time dimension, among the five types of policy tools, the proportion of command-type policy tools used showed a downward trend, from 88.16% in the 12th Five-Year Plan to 83.50% in the 14th Five-Year Plan. However, motivation-type and persuasion-type tools showed an upward trend, rising from 1.34% and 5.26% in the 12th Five-Year Plan period to 3.40% and 8.74% in the 14th Five-Year Plan respectively. The system-change-type policy tools decreased from 1.32% in the 12th Five-Year Plan to 0.97% in the 14th Five-Year Plan. The proportion of capacity-building-type policy tools has gradually increased from 2.63% in the 12th Five-Year Plan to 4.85% in the 14th Five-Year Plan. From the perspective of spatial dimension, apart from command and persuasion policy tools, the usage frequency of the other three types of policy tools in the three major regions all display a "growth-decline-growth" trend. From the perspective of tool dimension, command-type policy tools are dominant in China's community governance, with a cumulative frequency of 1405 times and a high proportion of 81.75%. Apart from command policy tools, persuasive policy tools and capacity-building policy tools have a relatively high proportion, with usage frequencies of 186 and 78 respectively. Conclusions: We found that current community governance policy tools mainly consist of command tools. However, there is a trend towards combining tools such as command, persuasion, incentive, capacity building, and system change in the future. There is a typical contradiction between instrumental rationality and value rationality, indicating an evolution from instrumental rationality to the integration of instrumental and value rationality. This study addresses the conflict of policy tools through rational guidance of values, the rational guarantee of tools, and cooperation to achieve the goal of high-quality development of community governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate changes in willingness for total knee replacement (TKR) surgery following a randomised control trial (RCT) of an osteoarthritis management program, and to extrapolate orthopaedic cost consequences for private health insurers (PHI). Methods: Willingness for surgery data from the RCT is analysed using a multinomial logistic regression model. A decision analytic model is used to conduct a break-even cost benefit analysis of the intervention from a PHI payer perspective. The analysis estimates the minimum probability of progression to surgery required for the intervention to be cost-neutral when considering savings limited to reduced orthopaedic costs. Cost data and orthopaedic pathway probabilities are sourced from payer data. Results: At baseline, 39% of participants in the treatment and control group were willing for surgery. At 12 months, 16% of participants in the treatment group remained willing for surgery, versus 36% in the control group. Participants in the treatment group are 2.96 (95% CI: 1.01–8.66) times more likely than those in the control group to move from initially willing for surgery, to unsure or unwilling at 12 months. The analysis indicates that the intervention is likely to be cost saving when at least 60% of initially willing participants progress to surgery over a 5-year time horizon. Conclusion: Our study estimates that an education, exercise and weight loss intervention can deliver both improved participant outcomes and a return on investment to Australian PHIs through a reduction in TKR surgery incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Equine Facilitated Psychiatry and Psychology (EFPP) is a supportive non-pharmacological treatment program used in the treatment of patients with substance use disorder. The aim of this study was to evaluate a possible change in patient's health and health-related quality of life between the first and fourth session of the EFPP program using the Assessment of Quality of Life (AQoL) and the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS). The Human-Animal Interaction Scale (HAIS) and a 5-point Likert-type scale was used for an assessment of patient's mood in the experimental group. The study sample included 57 patients (39 in experimental group with EFPP and 18 without EFPP program) with substance use disorders hospitalized in the psychiatric hospital. Comparing the initial and final patients scores in the experimental group, there was a significant positive shift in three of the four domains of the HoNOS scale and in seven of the eight dimensions of the AQoL scale. HAIS significantly increased (p <0.001) in time as well as patient´s mood after every session and in long time perspective. Based on these results, we can assume that the EFPP might be one of the successful programs which may improve patient´s mood and social interactions in substance use disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To investigate the cost-effectiveness of abatacept (ABA) as first-line (1L) therapy in Japanese rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients using data from the Institute of Rheumatology, Rheumatoid Arthritis database. Methods: A decision-analytic model was used to estimate the cost per American College of Rheumatology response of at least 50% improvement (ACR50) responder and per patient in Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) and Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) remission from a Japanese healthcare payers' perspective over a 2-year time horizon. Clinical characteristics of patients on ABA-1L were matched with those of patients on ABA second or later line (2L+) or tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi)-1L directly or using propensity scores. Resource utilisation and medical costs were calculated from the Japan Medical Data Center claims database. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity and subgroup analyses (age, treatment duration, Japanese version of Health Assessment Questionnaire [J-HAQ] score). Results: Incremental costs per member per month (ΔPMPM) for ABA-1L versus TNFi-1L and ABA-2L+ were -1,571 Japanese Yen (JPY) and 81 JPY, respectively. For ABA-1L versus TNFi-1L, ΔPMPM by ACR50 response was -11,715 JPY and by CDAI and SDAI remission 11,602 JPY and 47,003 JPY, respectively. Corresponding costs for ABA-1L were lower for all outcome parameters versus those for ABA-2L+. Scenario analyses showed that ABA-1L was cost-effective over TNFi-1L in patients <65 years for any outcome. Furthermore, ABA-1L was cost-effective over ABA-2L+ for all outcomes in patients with age <65 years, disease duration <5 years and J-HAQ ≥1.5. Conclusions: ABA-1L demonstrated a favourable cost-effectiveness profile in RA patients, accruing savings for the Japanese healthcare payers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 outbreak and governmental measures to keep the population safe had a great impact on many aspects of society, including well-being. Using data from N = 1281 participants from six countries (Argentina, France, Greece, Italy, Japan, and Turkey), we first explored differences in anxiety, depression (measured with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; HADS), and time perspectives (Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory; ZTPI), between these countries during the first weeks of the pandemic. We observed that Turkish participants reported the highest levels of anxiety, and Japanese and Greek the lowest. For depression symptoms, the Japanese scored highest and Italians lowest. Next, for each country, we investigated how well the relatively time-stable personality traits of time perspectives, chronotype (reduced Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire; rMEQ), and Big Five personality traits (short Big Five Inventory; BFI) predicted the levels of anxiety and depression (HADS). The regression analyses showed that negative attitudes towards the past predicted the levels of both anxiety and depression in most of the countries we analyzed. Additionally, in many countries, a Past Positive orientation negatively predicted depression whereas the Present Fatalistic subscale predicted anxiety and depression. The chronotype did not contribute additionally to the models. The Big Five traits (and particularly neuroticism) showed substantial incremental explanatory power for anxiety in some countries but did not consistently predict anxiety levels. For depression, the additional variance accounted for by including the BFI as predictors was rather small. Importantly, the ZTPI subscales were retained as significant predictors in the model still when the BFI and rMEQ were considered as potential predictors. Our results yield evidence that the ZTPI time perspectives are valuable predictors for anxiety and depression levels during the first period of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although research on learning strategies has contributed to improving learners' performance, most studies only described the characteristics of learners. These approaches have focused on inter-individual differences and their correlations, making it difficult to examine the process of selecting learning strategies in individuals. To examine the correlations within individual learners, such as the variables that influence the use of a strategy by a specific learner, two surveys were conducted in this study. Perceived cost and perceived benefit of using each strategy as the influential variables on choosing a strategy were adopted with reference to decision-making research. Perceived cost consisted of the time perspective for learning outcomes by the learning strategy and the method of learning strategy implementation. In Study 1, cognitive strategies that have a direct impact on the acquisition of learning content were measured, and metacognitive strategies that monitor and regulate one's own learning behavior were examined in Study 2. The variables were treated for each individual to calculate intra-class and within-person correlations, although data were collected using a typical questionnaire survey in learning strategy studies. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling was conducted with use of the learning strategy as the objective variable and the perceived costs and benefits as explanatory variables. The analysis revealed that, in terms of cognitive strategies (Study 1), learners avoided using learning strategies perceived to have a high cost in the short term; however, they used cognitive strategies regardless of the circumstances. Furthermore, regarding metacognitive strategies (Study 2), students avoided using learning strategies that they perceived as costly to use in the short term and used them only when they suited the circumstances. On the other hand, in metacognitive strategies (Study 2), students avoided using learning strategies that they perceived as costly to use for the next test and use as appropriate for the situation. Focusing on within-individual variance and correlation made the interpretation of factors that influence the choice of learning strategies more intuitive and provided more suggestions for educational practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of preterm preeclampsia (PE) screening versus routine screening based on maternal characteristics in Germany and Switzerland. Methods: A health economic model was used to analyse the cost-effectiveness of PE screening versus routine screening based on maternal characteristics. The analysis was conducted from the healthcare perspective with a time horizon of one year from the start of pregnancy. The main outcome measures were incremental health care costs and incremental costs per PE case averted. Results: The incremental health care costs for PE screening versus routine screening per woman were €14 in Germany, and -CHF42 in Switzerland, the latter representing cost savings. In Germany, the incremental costs per PE case averted were €3,795. In Switzerland, PE screening was dominant. The most influential parameter in the one-way sensitivity analysis was the cost of PE screening (Germany) and the probability of preterm PE in routine screening (Switzerland). In Germany, at a willingness-to-pay for one PE case avoided of €4,200, PE screening had a probability of more than 50% of being cost-effective compared to routine screening. In Switzerland, at a willingness-to-pay of CHF0, PE screening had a 78% probability of being the most cost-effective screening strategy. Conclusion: For Switzerland, PE screening is expected to be cost saving in comparison to routine screening. For Germany, the additional health care costs per woman were expected to be €14. Future cost-effectiveness studies should be conducted with a longer time horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sickle cell disease (SCD) may cause several impacts to patients and the whole society. About 4% of the population has the sickle cell trait in Brazil, and 60,000 to 100,000 have SCD. However, despite recognizing the significant burden of disease, little is known about SCD costs. Objective: To estimate SCD societal costs based on disease burden modelling, under Brazilian societal perspective. Methods: A disease burden model was built considering the societal perspective and a one-year time horizon, including direct medical and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality). The sum of life lost and disability years was considered to estimate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Data from a public database (DATASUS) and the prevalence obtained from literature or medical experts were used to define complications prevalence and duration. Costs were defined using data from the Brazilian public healthcare system table of procedures and medications (SIGTAP) and the human capital method. Results: Annual SCD cost was 413,639,180 USD. Indirect cost accounted for the majority of burden (70.1% of the total; 290,158,365 USD vs 123,480,816 USD). Standard of care and chronic complications were the main source of direct costs among adults, while acute conditions were the main source among children. Vaso-occlusive crisis represented the complication with the highest total cost per year in both populations, 11,400,410 USD among adults and 11,510,960 USD among children. Conclusions: SCD management may impose an important economic burden on Brazilian society that may reach more than 400 million USD per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Preeclampsia causes substantial maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality and significant societal economic impact. Effective screening would facilitate timely and appropriate prevention and management of preeclampsia. Objectives: To develop an early cost-effectiveness analysis to assess both costs and health outcomes of a new screening test for preeclampsia from a healthcare payer perspective, in the United Kingdom (UK), Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden. Methods: A decision tree over a 9-month time horizon was developed to explore the cost-effectiveness of the new screening test for preeclampsia compared to the current screening strategy. The new test strategy is being developed so that it can stratify healthy low risk nulliparous women early in pregnancy to either a high-risk group with a risk of 1 in 6 or more of developing preeclampsia, or a low-risk group with a risk of 1 in 100 or less. The model simulated 25 plausible scenarios in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 pregnant women, in which the sensitivity and specificity of the new test were varied to set a benchmark for the minimum test performance that is needed for the test to become cost-effective. The input parameters and costs were mainly derived from published literature. The main outcome was incremental costs per preeclampsia case averted, expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty. Results: Base case results showed that the new test strategy would be more effective and less costly compared to the current situation in the UK. In the Netherlands, the majority of scenarios would be cost-effective from a threshold of €50,000 per preeclampsia case averted, while in Ireland and Sweden, the vast majority of scenarios would be considered cost-effective only when a threshold of €100,000 was used. In the best case analyses, ICERs were more favourable in all four participating countries. Aspirin effectiveness, prevalence of preeclampsia, accuracy of the new screening test and cost of regular antenatal care were identified as driving factors for the cost-effectiveness of screening for preeclampsia. Conclusion: The results indicate that the new screening test for preeclampsia has potential to be cost-effective. Further studies based on proven accuracy of the test will confirm whether the new screening test is a cost-effective additional option to the current situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the steady increase in passenger volume of high-speed railways in China, some high-speed railway sections have faced a difficult situation. To provide more transport services, it is necessary to add as many trains as possible in a section to increase capacity. To solve this problem, a compressed multilayer space-time network model is constructed with the maximum number of trains that can be scheduled in the train timetable as the objective. The combination of the train stop plan and speed level is represented by the layer of network where the train is located, and constraints such as train selection, train safety, train overtake and cross-line trains are considered. A method based on timing-cycle iterative optimization is designed to decompose the original problem into multiple subproblems, and the solving order of the subproblems is determined by a heuristic greedy rule. Taking the Beijing-Jinan section of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example, the maximum number of trains was increased by 12.5% compared with the timetable before optimization. The saturated timetables provide detailed schedules, which helps decision-makers better adjust the timetable to run more trains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine how the offer size of initial public offerings (IPOs) and the market return on their issue date are related to the pricing of 314 IPOs issued by firms in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden at the one-day, one-week and four-week horizons using latent class analysis, which is a structural equation methodology. We identify four latent classes at each time horizon, where classes (i)-(ii) include a greater number of IPOs: (i) large-sized and underpriced IPOs; (ii) small-sized and overpriced IPOs; (iii) small-sized and severely underpriced IPOs; and (iv) large-sized IPOs that are overpriced at the one-day horizon but underpriced at the four-week horizon. The market returns are normal in latent classes (i)-(iii) and weak in class (iv). Approximately half of the IPOs in the technology sector are in the latent class with small-sized and overpriced IPOs, and most of the IPOs in the class with small-sized and severely underpriced IPOs are in the healthcare sector. Finally, the underpricing of IPOs is not corrected after one or four weeks of trading. Instead, the mean return and the standard deviation of returns increase with the time horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Active-case finding (ACF) programs have an important role in addressing case detection gaps and halting tuberculosis (TB) transmission. Evidence is limited on the cost-effectiveness of ACF interventions, particularly on how their value is impacted by different operational, epidemiological and patient care-seeking patterns. Methods: We evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of a combined facility and community-based ACF intervention in Zambia that utilized mobile chest X-ray with computer-aided reading/interpretation software and laboratory-based Xpert MTB/RIF testing. Programmatic costs (in 2018 US dollars) were assessed from the health system perspective using prospectively collected cost and operational data. Cost-effectiveness of the ACF intervention was assessed as the incremental cost per TB death averted over a five-year time horizon using a multi-stage Markov state-transition model reflecting patient symptom-associated care-seeking and TB care under ACF compared to passive care. Results: Over 18 months of field operations, the ACF intervention costed $435 to diagnose and initiate treatment for one person with TB. After accounting for patient symptom-associated care-seeking patterns in Zambia, we estimate that this one-time ACF intervention would incrementally diagnose 407 (7,207 versus 6,800) TB patients and avert 502 (611 versus 1,113) TB-associated deaths compared to the status quo (passive case finding), at an incremental cost of $2,284 per death averted over the next five-year period. HIV/TB mortality rate, patient symptom-associated care-seeking probabilities in the absence of ACF, and the costs of ACF patient screening were key drivers of cost-effectiveness. Conclusions: A one-time comprehensive ACF intervention simultaneously operating in public health clinics and corresponding catchment communities can have important medium-term impact on case-finding and be cost-effective in Zambia. The value of such interventions increases if targeted to populations with high HIV/TB mortality, substantial barriers (both behavioral and physical) to care-seeking exist, and when ACF interventions can optimize screening by achieving operational efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China over different time horizons. Our analysis reveals that the significant growth in the detection rate of infectious cases, thanks to the expansion in testing efficiency, were as effective as city lockdowns in explaining the reduction in new infections up to mid-March. However, as we extended the analysis to July, increasing the detection rate to at least 50% is the only reliable way to bring the spread under control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Student's academic performance is the point of interest for both the student and the academic institution in higher education. This performance can be affected by several factors and one of them is student absences. This is mainly due to the missed lectures and other class activities. Studies related to university timetabling investigate the different techniques and algorithms to design course timetables without analyzing the relationship between student attendance behavior and timetable design. This article first aimed at demonstrating the impact of absences and timetabling design on student's academic performance. Secondly, this study showed that the number of absences can be caused by three main timetable design factors: namely, (1) the number of courses per semester, (2) the average number of lectures per day and (3) the average number of free timeslots per day. This was demonstrated using Educational Data Mining on a large dataset collected from Prince Sultan University. The results showed a high prediction performance reaching 92% when predicting student's GPA based on absences and the factors related to timetabling design. High prediction performance reaching 87% was also obtained when predicting student absences based on the three timetable factors mentioned above. The results demonstrated the importance of designing course timetables in view of student absence behavior. Some suggestions were reported such as limiting the number of enrolled courses based on student's GPA, avoiding busy and almost free days and using automated timetabling to minimize the number of predicted absences. This in turn will help in generating balanced student timetables, and thus improving student academic performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we consider the effects of corporate hierarchies on innovation spread across multilayer networks, modeled by an elaborated SIR framework. We show that the addition of management layers can significantly improve spreading processes on both random geometric graphs and empirical corporate networks. Additionally, we show that utilizing a more centralized working relationship network rather than a strict administrative network further increases overall innovation reach. In fact, this more centralized structure in conjunction with management layers is essential to both reaching a plurality of nodes and creating a stable adopted community in the long time horizon. Further, we show that the selection of seed nodes affects the final stability of the adopted community, and while the most influential nodes often produce the highest peak adoption, this is not always the case. In some circumstances, seeding nodes near but not in the highest positions in the graph produces larger peak adoption and more stable long-time adoption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scan pattern analysis has been discussed as a promising tool in the context of real-time gaze-based applications. In particular, information-theoretic measures of scan path predictability, such as the gaze transition entropy (GTE), have been proposed for detecting relevant changes in user state or task demand. These measures model scan patterns as first-order Markov chains, assuming that only the location of the previous fixation is predictive of the next fixation in time. However, this assumption may not be sufficient in general, as recent research has shown that scan patterns may also exhibit more long-range temporal correlations. Thus, we here evaluate the active information storage (AIS) as a novel information-theoretic approach to quantifying scan path predictability in a dynamic task. In contrast to the GTE, the AIS provides means to statistically test and account for temporal correlations in scan path data beyond the previous last fixation. We compare AIS to GTE in a driving simulator experiment, in which participants drove in a highway scenario, where trials were defined based on an experimental manipulation that encouraged the driver to start an overtaking maneuver. Two levels of difficulty were realized by varying the time left to complete the task. We found that individual observers indeed showed temporal correlations beyond a single past fixation and that the length of the correlation varied between observers. No effect of task difficulty was observed on scan path predictability for either AIS or GTE, but we found a significant increase in predictability during overtaking. Importantly, for participants for which the first-order Markov chain assumption did not hold, this was only shown using AIS but not GTE. We conclude that accounting for longer time horizons in scan paths in a personalized fashion is beneficial for interpreting gaze pattern in dynamic tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present findings from three waves of a population-representative, UK time-use diary survey conducted both pre- and in real time during full 'lockdown', and again following the easing of social restrictions. We used an innovative online diary instrument that has proved both reliable and quick-to-field. Combining diary information on activity, location, and co-presence to estimate infection risks associated with daily behavior, we show clear changes in risk-associated behavior between the pre, full-lockdown and post full-lockdown periods. We document a shift from more to less risky daily behavior patterns (combinations of activity/location/co-presence categories) between the pre-pandemic pattern and full lockdown in May/June 2020, followed by a reversion (although not a complete reversal) of those patterns in August 2020 following the end of the first lockdown. Because, in general, a populations' time use changes relatively slowly, the behavioral changes revealed may be interpreted as a consequence of the UK COVID-19 lockdown social restrictions and their subsequent relaxation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The main aim of the current study was to investigate what role perceived life stress, psychological capital (PsyCap), financial self-reliance and time perspective orientations play in explaining socioeconomic health inequalities, specifically self-perceived health and self-reported physical health conditions. Methods: Individuals (total n = 600) aged 16+ years from a general Dutch population sample (LISS panel) completed an online questionnaire measuring three different SEP indicators (highest achieved educational level, personal monthly disposable income and being in paid employment), perceived life stress, PsyCap, financial self-reliance, time perspective, self-perceived health, and self-reported physical health conditions. Structural equation modelling using a cross-sectional design was used to test the mediation paths from SEP indicators to self-perceived health and self-reported physical health conditions through perceived life stress, PsyCap, financial self-reliance and time perspective orientations. Results: Highest achieved educational level and being in paid employment showed to play a role in the social stratification within self-reported and self-perceived health outcomes, whereas this was not found for personal monthly disposable income. The association between a lower highest achieved educational level and lower self-perceived health was mediated by lower PsyCap and higher perceived life stress levels. The association between a lower highest achieved educational level and higher levels of self-reported physical health conditions was mediated by less financial self-reliance and higher perceived life stress levels. Although no mediating role was found for time perspective orientations in the association between the measured SEP indicators and health outcomes, negative time perspective orientations were associated with either self-perceived health or self-reported physical health conditions. Conclusions: reserves (PsyCap and financial self-reliance) and perceived life stress seem to play a larger role in explaining the health gradient in achieved educational level than time perspective orientations. Prevention efforts trying to reduce the SEP-health gradient should focus on a) increasing reserves and lowering perceived life stress levels for individuals with a low achieved educational level, and b) reducing unemployment and narrowing opportunity gaps in education for people with a low SEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most complex network analyses of transportation systems use simplified static representations obtained from existing connections in a time horizon. In static representations, travel times, waiting times and compatibility of schedules are neglected, thus losing relevant information. To obtain a more accurate description of transportation networks, we use a dynamic representation that considers synced paths and that includes waiting times to compute shortest paths. We use the shortest paths to define dynamic network, node and edge measures to analyse the topology of transportation networks, comparable with measures obtained from static representations. We illustrate the application of these measures with a toy model and a real transportation network built from schedules of a low-cost carrier. Results show remarkable differences between measures of static and dynamic representations, demonstrating the limitations of the static representation to obtain accurate information of transportation networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Implantable cardiac defibrillators (ICDs) for primary prevention (PP) of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) are well-established but underutilized globally. The Improve SCA study has identified a cohort of patients called 1.5 primary prevention (1.5PP) based on PP patients with the presence of certain risk factors. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of ICD therapy compared to no ICD among the PP population and the subset of 1.5PP patients in Taiwan. Methods: A Markov model was run over a lifetime time horizon from the Taiwan payer perspective. Mortality and utility estimates were obtained from the literature (PP) and the IMPROVE SCA trial (1.5PP). Cost inputs were obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Administration (NHIA), Ministry of Health and Welfare. We used a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of NT$2,100,000, as established through standard WTP research methods and in alignment with World Health Organization recommendations. Results: The total discounted costs for ICD therapy and no ICD therapy were NT$1,664,259 and NT$646,396 respectively for PP, while they were NT$2,410,603 and NT$905,881 respectively for 1.5PP. Total discounted QALYs for ICD therapy and no ICD therapy were 6.48 and 4.98 respectively for PP, while they were 10.78 and 7.71 respectively for 1.5PP. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was NT$708,711 for PP and NT$441,153 for 1.5PP, therefore ICD therapy should be considered cost effective for PP and highly cost effective for 1.5PP. Conclusions: ICD therapy compared to no ICD therapy is cost-effective in the whole PP population and highly cost-effective in the subset 1.5PP population in Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Although adverse events (AEs) following voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) are rare, their prompt ascertainment and management is a marker of quality care. The use of two-way text messaging (2wT) for client follow-up after VMMC reduces the need for clinic visits (standard of care (SoC)) without compromising safety. We compared the cost-effectiveness of 2wT to SoC for post-VMMC follow-up in two, high-volume, public VMMC sites in Zimbabwe. Materials and methods: We developed a decision-analytic (decision tree) model of post-VMMC client follow-up at two high-volume sites. We parameterized the model using data from both a randomized controlled study of 2wT vs. SoC and from the routine VMMC program. The perspective of analysis was the Zimbabwe government (payer). The time horizon covered the time from VMMC to wound healing. Costs included text messaging; both in-person and outreach follow-up; and AE management. Costs were estimated in 2018 U.S. dollars. The outcome of analysis was AE yield relative to the globally accepted safety standard of a 2% AE rate. We estimated the incremental cost per percentage increase in AE ascertainment and the incremental cost per additional AE identified. We conducted univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results: 2wT increased the costs due to text messaging by $4.42 but reduced clinic visit costs by $2.92 and outreach costs by $3.61 –a net savings of $2.10. 2wT also increased AE ascertainment by 50% (92% AE yield in 2wT compared to 42% AE yield in SoC). Therefore, 2wT dominated SoC in the incremental analysis: 2wT was less costly and more effective. Results were generally robust to univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: 2wT is cost-effective for post-VMMC follow-up in Zimbabwe. Countries in which VMMC is a high-priority HIV prevention intervention should consider this mHealth intervention to reduce overall cost per VMMC, increasing the likelihood of current and future VMMC program sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliably predicting sustainable exploitation levels for many tropical species subject to hunting remains a difficult task, largely because of the inherent uncertainty associated with estimating parameters related to both population dynamics and hunting pressure. Here, we investigate a modelling approach to support decisions in bushmeat management which explicitly considers parameter uncertainty. We apply the approach to duiker Cephalophus spp., assuming either a constant quota-based, or a constant proportional harvesting, strategy. Within each strategy, we evaluate different hunting levels in terms of both average yield and survival probability, over different time horizons. Under quota-based harvesting, considering uncertainty revealed a trade-off between yield and extinction probability that was not evident when ignoring uncertainty. The highest yield was returned by a quota that implied a 40% extinction risk, whereas limiting extinction risk to 10% reduced yield by 50%-70%. By contrast, under proportional harvesting, there was no trade-off between yield and extinction probability. The maximum proportion returned a yield comparable with the maximum possible under quota-based harvesting, but with extinction risk below 10%. However, proportional harvesting can be harder to implement in practice because it depends on an estimate of population size. In both harvesting approaches, predicted yields were highly right-skewed with median yields differing from mean yields, implying that decision outcomes depend on attitude to risk. The analysis shows how an explicit consideration of all available information, including uncertainty, can, as part of a wider process involving multiple stakeholders, help inform harvesting policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Comparison of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three first-line EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) would improve patients' clinical benefits and save costs. Using real-world data, this study attempted to directly compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of first-line afatinib, erlotinib, and gefitinib. Methods: During May 2011-December 2017, all patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) visiting a tertiary center were invited to fill out the EuroQol five-dimension (EQ-5D) questionnaires and World Health Organization Quality of Life, brief version (WHOQOL-BREF), and received follow-ups for survival and direct medical costs. A total of 379 patients with EGFR mutation-positive advanced NSCLC under first-line TKIs were enrolled for analysis. After propensity score matching for the patients receiving afatinib (n = 48), erlotinib (n = 48), and gefitinib (n = 96), we conducted the study from the payers' perspective with a lifelong time horizon. Results: Patients receiving afatinib had the worst lifetime psychometric scores, whereas the differences in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) were modest. Considering 3 treatments together, afatinib was dominated by erlotinib. Erlotinib had an incremental cost-effectiveness of US$17,960/life year and US$12,782/QALY compared with gefitinib. Acceptability curves showed that erlotinib had 58.6% and 78.9% probabilities of being cost-effective given a threshold of 1 Taiwanese per capita GDP per life year and QALY, respectively. Conclusion: Erlotinib appeared to be cost-effective. Lifetime psychometric scores may provide additional information for effectiveness evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Individuals with functional impairments or chronic diseases are often in need of assistance in their daily lives. For these individuals it is essential to find novel, cost-effective solutions to meet their needs. Service dogs are dogs that are specially trained to assist individuals with functional impairments and may be able to improve these individuals’ quality of life at a reasonable cost, i.e. be cost effective. Cost-effectiveness analyses are used to illustrate the cost of an intervention in relation to its effects and provide important input to decision-makers when setting priorities. Aim: The aim of this study is to assess the cost effectiveness of a certified physical service dog and a diabetes alert dog compared to a regular companion dog. Method: Costs, life years and quality-adjusted life years were estimated over a 10-year time horizon using a decision-analytic model built upon evidence from the”service and hearing dog project”. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio expressed as cost per gained quality-adjusted life year. The analysis was conducted from a societal perspective. Costs and effects were discounted with 3% per annum and reported in USD. Results: Compared to a regular companion dog, a physical service dog is cost saving [-6,000 USD] and gives the dog owner more quality-adjusted life years [0.28]. The diabetes alert dog is also cost effective in comparison with a regular companion dog [-4,500 USD, 0.06 QALYs]. Conclusion: This study indicates that a certified service dog is cost saving in comparison with a regular companion dog for individuals with functional impairments or chronic diseases. The uncertainty of the analysis implies that further studies are needed in order to confirm these results. Nevertheless, physical service dogs and diabetes alert dogs show potential to be a valuable support and decision analytic models are useful tools to provide this information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of a new drug is an extremely high-risk enterprise. The attrition rates of development projects and the average costs for each launched product are daunting, and the completion of a development program requires a very long time horizon. These facts imply that there are huge potential gains, should one be able to improve efficiency and enhance decision-making capabilities. In this paper, we argue that substantial gains can be achieved by adapting a holistic view of drug development. Historically, too much planning, design and decision-making in the pharmaceutical development has been based on locally optimising separate parts of the development program, and too often important sources of uncertainty are ignored. We propose instead a model-based approach built on two essential pillars; (1) an integrated holistic view of the development program, including post-launch marketing and sales, with all parts evaluated simultaneously; (2) an explicit appreciation of all relevant sources of uncertainty. Computer simulations are utilised to evaluate the properties of the program options at hand, and to provide valuable quantitative decision support. Applications of this modelling approach have proven to add large value to development projects in terms of better program options being generated and more value-adding decisions taken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Spain, women invited to breast screening are not usually informed about potential harms of screening. The objective of the InforMa study is to assess the effect of receiving information about the benefits and harms of breast screening on informed choice and other decision-making outcomes, in women approaching the age of invitation to mammography screening. Methods: Two-stage randomised controlled trial. In the first stage, 40 elementary territorial units of the public healthcare system were selected and randomised to intervention or control. In the second stage, women aged 49-50 years were randomly selected. The target sample size was 400 women. Women in the intervention arm received a decision aid (DA) with detailed information on the benefits and harms of screening. Women in the control arm received a standard leaflet that did not mention harms and recommended accepting the invitation to participate in the Breast Cancer Screening Program (BCSP). The primary outcome was informed choice, defined as adequate knowledge and intentions consistent with attitudes. Secondary outcomes included decisional conflict, worry about breast cancer, time perspective, opinions about the DA or the leaflet, and participation in the BCSP. Results: In the intervention group, 23.2% of 203 women made an informed choice compared to only 0.5% of 197 women in the control group (p < 0.001). Attitudes and intentions were similar in both study groups with a high frequency of women intending to be screened, 82.8% vs 82.2% (p = 0.893). Decisional conflict was significantly lower in the intervention group. No differences were observed in confidence in the decision, anxiety, and participation in BCSP. Conclusions: Women in Spain lack knowledge on the benefits and harms of breast screening. Providing quantitative information on benefits and harms has produced a considerable increase in knowledge and informed choice, with a high acceptance of the informative materials. Trial registration: Trial identifier at ClinicalTrials.gov registry. Registered on February 4 2017. Trial name: InforMa study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time Perspective (TP) is an important area of research within the ‘psychological time’ paradigm. TP, or the manner in which individuals conduct themselves as a reflection of their cogitation of the past, the present, and the future, is considered as a basic facet of human functioning. These perceptions of time have an influence on our actions, perceptions, and emotions. Assessment of TP based on human language on Twitter opens up a new avenue for research on subjective view of time at a large scale. In order to assess TP of users’ from their tweets, the foremost task is to resolve grammatical tense into the underlying temporal orientation of tweets as for many tweets the tense information, and their temporal orientations are not the same. In this article, we first resolve grammatical tense of users’ tweets to identify their underlying temporal orientation: past, present, or future. We develop a minimally supervised classification framework for temporal orientation task that enables incorporating linguistic knowledge into a deep neural network. The temporal orientation model achieves an accuracy of 78.7% when tested on a manually annotated test set. This method performs better when compared to the state-of-the-art technique. Secondly, we apply the classification model to classify the users’ tweets in either of the past, present or future categories. Tweets classified this way are then grouped for each user which gives rise to unidimensional TP. The valence (positive, negative, and neutral) is added to the temporal orientation dimension to produce the bidimensional TP. We finally investigate the association between the Twitter users’ unidimensional and bidimensional TP and their age, education and six basic emotions in a large-scale empirical manner. Our analysis shows that people tend to think more about the past as well as more positive about the future when they age. We also observe that future-negative people are less joyful, more sad, more disgusted, and more angry while past-negative people have more fear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the roles of time perspective, affect, and locus of control in mediating the relationship between regulatory mode and procrastination. Participants filled out the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory, Positive and Negative Affect Schedule Scale, Multidimensional Locus of Control Inventory, Locomotion and Assessment Scale, and Lay’s General Procrastination scale. Results showed that procrastination was negatively related to locomotion orientation but positively associated with assessment orientation. The relations between regulatory mode and procrastination were mediated by negative affective state, internal sense of control, and negative past and future time perspectives. These findings suggest not only a behavioral link between regulatory mode and procrastination but also affective and cognitive differences in locomotion and assessment orientations that may account for such linkage. The present results also provide empirical support for the theory of locomotion-temporality interface (Kruglanski, Pierro, & Higgins, 2016). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Uganda changed its antiretroviral therapy guidelines in 2014, increasing the CD4 threshold for antiretroviral therapy initiation from 350 cells/μl to 500 cells/μl. We investigate what effect this change in policy is likely to have on HIV incidence, morbidity, and programme costs, and estimate the cost-effectiveness of the change over different time horizons. Methods: We used a complex individual-based model of HIV transmission and antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Uganda. 100 model fits were generated by fitting the model to 51 demographic, sexual behaviour, and epidemiological calibration targets, varying 96 input parameters, using history matching with model emulation. An additional 19 cost and disability weight parameters were varied during the analysis of the model results. For each model fit, the model was run to 2030, with and without the change in threshold to 500 cells/μl. Results: The change in threshold led to a 9.7% (90% plausible range: 4.3%-15.0%) reduction in incidence in 2030, and averted 278,944 (118,452–502,790) DALYs, at a total cost of $28M (-$142M to +$195M). The cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted fell over time, from $3238 (-$125 to +$29,969) in 2014 to $100 (-$499 to +$785) in 2030. The change in threshold was cost-effective (cost <3×Uganda’s per capita GDP per DALY averted) by 2018, and highly cost-effective (cost

Future time perspective (FTP) may predict individual attitudes and behaviors. However, FTP research includes different FTP conceptualizations and outcomes which hinder generalizing its findings. To solve the inconsistencies in FTP research and generalize the magnitude of FTP as a driver of motivation and behavior, we conducted the first systematical synthesis of FTP relationships in three crucial life domains. Our meta-analyses of FTP studies in education (k = 28), work (k = 17), and health (k = 32) involved N = 31,558 participants, and used a conceptual model for grouping FTP constructs. To address different outcome types, we applied the Theory of Planned Behavior when coding the studies. FTP relationships with outcomes were small-to-medium, were generalizable across domains, and were strongest when the FTP construct included a mixture of cognition, behavioral intention, and affect and, in education, when the FTP measure was domain specific rather than general. There were cross-cultural differences in FTP-outcome relationships. The strength of the FTP-outcome types relationship varied for attitudes, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intention, and behaviors. The lowest effect sizes were found for FTP predicting actual behaviors in education, work, and health and between FTP and health attitudes. Theoretical implications of the findings and future research directions are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I investigate the evolution of cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma when individuals change their strategies subject to performance evaluation of their neighbours over variable time horizons. In the monochrome setting, in which all agents per default share the same performance evaluation rule, weighing past events strongly dramatically enhances the prevalence of cooperators. For co-evolutionary models, in which evaluation time horizons and strategies can co-evolve, I demonstrate that cooperation naturally associates with long-term evaluation of others while defection is typically paired with very short time horizons. Moreover, considering the continuous spectrum in between enhanced and discounted weights of past performance, cooperation is optimally supported when cooperators neither give enhanced weight to past nor more recent events, but simply average payoffs. Payoff averaging is also found to emerge as the dominant strategy for cooperators in co-evolutionary models, thus proposing a natural route to the evolution of cooperation in viscous populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Depression causes a large burden of disease worldwide. Effective prevention has the potential to reduce that burden considerably. This study aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of minimal contact psychotherapy, based on Lewinsohn's 'Coping with depression''course, targeted at opportunistically screened individuals with sub-threshold depression. Methods and Results: Using a Markov model, future health effects and costs of an intervention scenario and a current practice scenario were estimated. The time horizon was five years. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were expressed in euro per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was employed to study the effect of uncertainty in the model parameters. From the health care perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was ∈1,400 per DALY, and from the societal perspective the intervention was cost-saving. Although the estimated incremental costs and effects were surrounded with large uncertainty, given a willingness to pay of ∈20,000 per DALY, the probability that the intervention is cost-effective was around 80%. Conclusion: This modelling study showed that opportunistic screening in primary care for sub-threshold depression in combination with minimal contact psychotherapy may be cost-effective in the prevention of major depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Current theories of interval timing assume that humans and other animals time as if using a single, absolute stopwatch that can be stopped or reset on command. Here we evaluate the alternative view that psychological time is represented by multiple clocks, and that these clocks create separate temporal contexts by which duration is judged in a relative manner. Two predictions of the multiple-clock hypothesis were tested. First, that the multiple clocks can be manipulated (stopped and/or reset) independently. Second, that an event of a given physical duration would be perceived as having different durations in different temporal contexts, i.e., would be judged differently by each clock. Methodology/Principal Findings: Rats were trained to time three durations (e.g., 10, 30, and 90 s). When timing was interrupted by an unexpected gap in the signal, rats reset the clock used to time the ''short'' duration, stopped the ''medium'' duration clock, and continued to run the ''long'' duration clock. When the duration of the gap was manipulated, the rats reset these clocks in a hierarchical order, first the ''short'', then the ''medium'', and finally the ''long'' clock. Quantitative modeling assuming re-allocation of cognitive resources in proportion to the relative duration of the gap to the multiple, simultaneously timed event durations was used to account for the results. Conclusions/Significance: These results indicate that the three event durations were effectively timed by separate clocks operated independently, and that the same gap duration was judged relative to these three temporal contexts. Results suggest that the brain processes the duration of an event in a manner similar to Einstein's special relativity theory: A given time interval is registered differently by independent clocks dependent upon the context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. The ability to estimate the passage of time is of fundamental importance for perceptual and cognitive processes. One experience of time is the perception of duration, which is not isomorphic to physical duration and can be distorted by a number of factors. Yet, the critical features generating these perceptual shifts in subjective duration are not understood. Methodology/Findings. We used prospective duration judgments within and across sensory modalities to examine the effect of stimulus predictability and feature change on the perception of duration. First, we found robust distortions of perceived duration in auditory, visual and auditory-visual presentations despite the predictability of the feature changes in the stimuli. For example, a looming disc embedded in a series of steady discs led to time dilation, whereas a steady disc embedded in a series of looming discs led to time compression. Second, we addressed whether visual (auditory) inputs could alter the perception of duration of auditory (visual) inputs. When participants were presented with incongruent audio-visual stimuli, the perceived duration of auditory events could be shortened or lengthened by the presence of conflicting visual information; however, the perceived duration of visual events was seldom distorted by the presence of auditory information and was never perceived shorter than their actual durations. Conclusions/Significance. These results support the existence of multisensory interactions in the perception of duration and, importantly, suggest that vision can modify auditory temporal perception in a pure timing task. Insofar as distortions in subjective duration can neither be accounted for by the unpredictability of an auditory, visual or auditory-visual event, we propose that it is the intrinsic features of the stimulus that critically affect subjective time distortions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]