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INTRODUCTION:There is no reliable screening tool to identify people with high risk of developing pancreatic cancer even though pancreatic cancer represents the fifth-leading cause of cancer-related death in Korea. The goal of this study was to develop an individualized risk prediction model that can be used to screen for asymptomatic pancreatic cancer in Korean men and women. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed using the Cox proportional hazards model based on an 8-year follow-up of a cohort study of 1,289,933 men and 557,701 women in Korea who had biennial examinations in 1996-1997. The performance of the models was evaluated with respect to their discrimination and calibration ability based on the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow type χ2 statistic. RESULTS:A total of 1,634 (0.13%) men and 561 (0.10%) women were newly diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Age, height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and age at smoking initiation were included in the risk prediction model for men. Height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and drinking habit were included in the risk prediction model for women. Smoking was the most significant risk factor for developing pancreatic cancer in both men and women. The risk prediction model exhibited good discrimination and calibration ability, and in external validation it had excellent prediction ability. CONCLUSION:Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed and validated for the first time. The prediction models will be a useful tool for detecting high-risk individuals who may benefit from increased surveillance for pancreatic cancer.

A model to estimate survival in ambulatory hepatocellular carcinoma patients (MESIAH) is useful for estimating patient prognosis but needs improvement for Korean patients, most of whom have a hepatitis B virus. We aimed to modify the MESIAH for better prognostication through enhancing calibration for Korean patient population (K-MESIAH).Utilizing a cohort of 1,969 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients from the National Cancer Center of Korea between 2004 and 2009, a survival prediction model was developed using the Cox proportional hazards model. The model's performance was evaluated using C-statistical and χ2-statistical analyses. External validation was performed using an independent cohort of 328 patients from the Seoul National University Bundang Hospital.To develop the K-MESIAH, etiology was added to the original risk factors (age, Model for Endstage Liver Disease, albumin, size of the largest nodule, number of tumor nodules, vascular invasion, metastasis, and alpha fetoprotein) in the MESIAH. From the internal validation study, the C-statistics and χ2-statistics for one-, three-, and five-years of survival were 0.83 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.82-0.85), 49.07; 0.81 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.79-0.82), 28.95; and 0.80 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.79-0.81), 20.93, respectively. The K-MESIAH also showed a high prediction ability for the external validation cohort.A survival prediction model for Korean HCC patients was developed and validated to have a high level of performance. This K-MESIAH may be more useful in clinical practice and personalized care in a hepatitis B virus endemic area.

The aim of this study was to investigate the expression of two commonly altered genes ERG and PTEN in prostate cancer (PC) and evaluate their prognostic significance. Despite conflicting published results, TMPRSS2-ERG gene fusion and PTEN loss are generally considered unfavorable markers for PC progression.Of the 762 prostatic adenocarcinoma specimens obtained from radical prostatectomy, 613 without neoadjuvant hormone therapy were included in tissue microarrays for quantitatively assessment of ERG and PTEN expression via immunohistochemistry. Statistical analysis of the association between such expression and clinicopathological parameters, including clinical prognosis, was performed with a p-value of 6), pathologic T stage (≥T3), positive surgical margin, and extraprostatic capsule extension as significant risk factors for BCR (p