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Probabilistic models enhance breeding, especially for the Tahiti acid lime, a fruit essential to fresh markets and industry. These models identify superior and persistent individuals using probability theory, providing a measure of uncertainty that can aid the recommendation. The objective of our study was to evaluate the use of a Bayesian probabilistic model for the recommendation of superior and persistent genotypes of Tahiti acid lime evaluated in 12 harvests. Leveraging the Monte Carlo Hamiltonian sampling algorithm, we calculated the probability of superior performance (superior genotypic value), and the probability of superior stability (reduced variance of the genotype-by-harvests interaction) of each genotype. The probability of superior stability was compared to a measure of persistence estimated from genotypic values predicted using a frequentist model. Our results demonstrated the applicability and advantages of the Bayesian probabilistic model, yielding similar parameters to those of the frequentist model, while providing further information about the probabilities associated with genotype performance and stability. Genotypes G15, G4, G18, and G11 emerged as the most superior in performance, whereas G24, G7, G13, and G3 were identified as the most stable. This study highlights the usefulness of Bayesian probabilistic models in the fruit trees cultivars recommendation., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Malikouski et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Spatial trends represent an obstacle to genetic evaluation in maize breeding. Spatial analyses can correct spatial trends, which allow for an increase in selective accuracy. The objective of this study was to compare the spatial (SPA) and non-spatial (NSPA) models in diallel multi-environment trial analyses in maize breeding. The trials consisted of 78 inter-populational maize hybrids, tested in four environments (E1, E2, E3, and E4), with three replications, under a randomized complete block design. The SPA models accounted for autocorrelation among rows and columns by the inclusion of first-order autoregressive matrices (AR1 ⊗ AR1). Then, the rows and columns factors were included in the fixed and random parts of the model. Based on the Bayesian information criteria, the SPA models were used to analyze trials E3 and E4, while the NSPA model was used for analyzing trials E1 and E2. In the joint analysis, the compound symmetry structure for the genotypic effects presented the best fit. The likelihood ratio test showed that some effects changed regarding significance when the SPA and NSPA models were used. In addition, the heritability, selective accuracy, and selection gain were higher when the SPA models were used. This indicates the power of the SPA model in dealing with spatial trends. The SPA model exhibits higher reliability values and is recommended to be incorporated in the standard procedure of genetic evaluation in maize breeding. The analyses bring the parents 2, 10 and 12, as potential parents in this microregion., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Multiple-trait model tends to be the best alternative for the analysis of repeated measures, since they consider the genetic and residual correlations between measures and improve the selective accuracy. Thus, the objective of this study was to propose a multiple-trait Bayesian model for repeated measures analysis in Jatropha curcas breeding for bioenergy. To this end, the grain yield trait of 730 individuals of 73 half-sib families was evaluated over six harvests. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used to estimate genetic parameters and genetic values. Genetic correlation between pairs of measures were estimated and four selective intensities (27.4%, 20.5%, 13.7%, and 6.9%) were used to compute the selection gains. The full model was selected based on deviance information criterion. Genetic correlations of low (ρg ≤ 0.33), moderate (0.34 ≤ ρg ≤ 0.66), and high magnitude (ρg ≥ 0.67) were observed between pairs of harvests. Bayesian analyses provide robust inference of genetic parameters and genetic values, with high selective accuracies. In summary, the multiple-trait Bayesian model allowed the reliable selection of superior Jatropha curcas progenies. Therefore, we recommend this model to genetic evaluation of Jatropha curcas genotypes, and its generalization, in other perennials., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

This study assessed the efficiency of Genomic selection (GS) or genome-wide selection (GWS), based on Regularized Quantile Regression (RQR), in the selection of genotypes to breed autogamous plant populations with oligogenic traits. To this end, simulated data of an F2 population were used, with traits with different heritability levels (0.10, 0.20 and 0.40), controlled by four genes. The generations were advanced (up to F6) at two selection intensities (10% and 20%). The genomic genetic value was computed by RQR for different quantiles (0.10, 0.50 and 0.90), and by the traditional GWS methods, specifically RR-BLUP and BLASSO. A second objective was to find the statistical methodology that allows the fastest fixation of favorable alleles. In general, the results of the RQR model were better than or equal to those of traditional GWS methodologies, achieving the fixation of favorable alleles in most of the evaluated scenarios. At a heritability level of 0.40 and a selection intensity of 10%, RQR (0.50) was the only methodology that fixed the alleles quickly, i.e., in the fourth generation. Thus, it was concluded that the application of RQR in plant breeding, to simulated autogamous plant populations with oligogenic traits, could reduce time and consequently costs, due to the reduction of selfing generations to fix alleles in the evaluated scenarios., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Random regression models (RRM) are a powerful tool to evaluate genotypic plasticity over time. However, to date, RRM remains unexplored for the analysis of repeated measures in Jatropha curcas breeding. Thus, the present work aimed to apply the random regression technique and study its possibilities for the analysis of repeated measures in Jatropha curcas breeding. To this end, the grain yield (GY) trait of 730 individuals of 73 half-sib families was evaluated over six years. Variance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood, genetic values were predicted by best linear unbiased prediction and RRM were fitted through Legendre polynomials. The best RRM was selected by Bayesian information criterion. According to the likelihood ratio test, there was genetic variability among the Jatropha curcas progenies; also, the plot and permanent environmental effects were statistically significant. The variance components and heritability estimates increased over time. Non-uniform trajectories were estimated for each progeny throughout the measures, and the area under the trajectories distinguished the progenies with higher performance. High accuracies were found for GY in all harvests, which indicates the high reliability of the results. Moderate to strong genetic correlation was observed across pairs of harvests. The genetic trajectories indicated the existence of genotype × measurement interaction, once the trajectories crossed, which implies a different ranking in each year. Our results suggest that RRM can be efficiently applied for genetic selection in Jatropha curcas breeding programs., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

An efficient and informative statistical method to analyze genotype-by-environment interaction (GxE) is needed in maize breeding programs. Thus, the objective of this study was to compare the effectiveness of multiple-trait models (MTM), random regression models (RRM), and compound symmetry models (CSM) in the analysis of multi-environment trials (MET) in maize breeding. For this, a data set with 84 maize hybrids evaluated across four environments for the trait grain yield (GY) was used. Variance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood (REML), and genetic values were predicted by best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). The best fit MTM, RRM, and CSM were identified by the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and the significance of the genetic effects were tested using the likelihood ratio test (LRT). Genetic gains were predicted considering four selection intensities (5, 10, 15, and 20 hybrids). The selected MTM, RRM, and CSM models fit heterogeneous residuals. Moreover, for RRM the genetic effects were modeled by Legendre polynomials of order two. Genetic variability between maize hybrids were assessed for GY. In general, estimates of broad-sense heritability, selective accuracy, and predicted selection gains were slightly higher when obtained using MTM and RRM. Thus, considering the criterion of parsimony and the possibility of predicting genetic values of hybrids for untested environments, RRM is a preferential approach for analyzing MET in maize breeding., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Photosynthetic efficiency has become the target of several breeding programs since the positive correlation between photosynthetic rate and yield in soybean suggests that the improvement of photosynthetic efficiency may be a promising target for new yield gains. However, studies on combining ability of soybean genotypes for physiological traits are still scarce in the literature. The objective of this study was to estimate the combining ability of soybean genotypes based on F2 generation aiming to identify superior parents and segregating populations for physiological traits. Twenty-eight F2 populations resulting from partial diallel crossings between eleven lines were evaluated in two crop seasons for the physiological traits: photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, internal CO2 concentration, and transpiration. General combining ability (GCA) of the parents and specific combining ability (SCA) of the F2 populations were estimated. Our findings reveal the predominance of additive effects in controlling the traits. The genotype TMG 7062 IPRO is the most promising parent for programs aiming at photosynthetic efficiency. We have also identified other promising parents and proposed cross-breeding with higher potential for obtaining superior lines for photosynthetic efficiency., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192189.].

Jatropha (Jatropha curcas) has become one of the most important species for producing biofuels. Currently, Genotype x Environment (GxE) interaction is the biggest challenge that breeders should solve to increase the section accuracy in the plant breeding. Therefore, the objectives in this study were to estimate the parameters in the 180 half-sib families in Jatropha evaluated for five production years, to verify the significance of the GxE interaction variance, to evaluate the adaptability and stability for each family based on three prediction methods, to select superior half-sib families based on the adaptability and stability analyses, and to predict the accuracy for the sixth production year. Jatropha half-sib families were classified and selected using the follow adaptability and stability methods: linear regression, bi-segmented linear regression and mixed models concepts called harmonic mean of the relative performance of genetic values (HMRPGV). The prediction accuracy was estimated by the Pearson correlation between the predicted genetic values by adaptability and stability methods and the phenotypic value in the sixth production year. In result, most half-sib families were classified as general adaptability and general stability for the evaluated traits. The selection gain obtained via HMRPGV was higher than other methods. The prediction accuracy for the sixth production year was 0.45. Therefore, HMRPGV is efficient to maximize the genetic gain, and it can be a useful strategy to select genotype with high adaptability and stability in Jatropha breeding as well as other species that should be evaluated for many years to take a suitable selection accuracy., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Asian rust affects the physiology of soybean plants and causes losses in yield. Repeatability coefficients may help breeders to know how many measurements are needed to obtain a suitable reliability for a target trait. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to determine the repeatability coefficients of 14 traits in soybean plants inoculated with Phakopsora pachyrhizi and to establish the minimum number of measurements needed to predict the breeding value with high accuracy. Experiments were performed in a 3x2 factorial arrangement with three treatments and two inoculations in a random block design. Repeatability coefficients, coefficients of determination and number of measurements needed to obtain a certain reliability were estimated using ANOVA, principal component analysis based on the covariance matrix and the correlation matrix, structural analysis and mixed model. It was observed that the principal component analysis based on the covariance matrix out-performed other methods for almost all traits. Significant differences were observed for all traits except internal CO2 concentration for the treatment effects. For the measurement effects, all traits were significantly different. In addition, significant differences were found for all Treatment x Measurement interaction traits except coumestrol, chitinase and chlorophyll content. Six measurements were suitable to obtain a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 for all traits based on principal component analysis. The information obtained from this research will help breeders and physiologists determine exactly how many measurements are needed to evaluate each trait in soybean plants infected by P. pachyrhizi with a desirable reliability.

The objective of this study was to explore the potential of genomic prediction (GP) for soybean resistance against Sclerotinia sclerotiorum (Lib.) de Bary, the causal agent of white mold (WM). A diverse panel of 465 soybean plant introduction accessions was phenotyped for WM resistance in replicated field and greenhouse tests. All plant accessions were previously genotyped using the SoySNP50K BeadChip. The predictive ability of six GP models were compared, and the impact of marker density and training population size on the predictive ability was investigated. Cross-prediction among environments was tested to determine the effectiveness of the prediction models. GP models had similar prediction accuracies for all experiments. Predictive ability did not improve significantly by using more than 5k SNPs, or by increasing the training population size (from 50% to 90% of the total of individuals). The GP model effectively predicted WM resistance across field and greenhouse experiments when each was used as either the training or validation population. The GP model was able to identify WM-resistant accessions in the USDA soybean germplasm collection that had previously been reported and were not included in the study panel. This study demonstrated the applicability of GP to identify useful genetic sources of WM resistance for soybean breeding. Further research will confirm the applicability of the proposed approach to other complex disease resistance traits and in other crops.

Genomic wide selection is a promising approach for improving the selection accuracy in plant breeding, particularly in species with long life cycles, such as Jatropha. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to estimate the genetic parameters for grain yield (GY) and the weight of 100 seeds (W100S) using restricted maximum likelihood (REML); to compare the performance of GWS methods to predict GY and W100S; and to estimate how many markers are needed to train the GWS model to obtain the maximum accuracy. Eight GWS models were compared in terms of predictive ability. The impact that the marker density had on the predictive ability was investigated using a varying number of markers, from 2 to 1,248. Because the genetic variance between evaluated genotypes was significant, it was possible to obtain selection gain. All of the GWS methods tested in this study can be used to predict GY and W100S in Jatropha. A training model fitted using 1,000 and 800 markers is sufficient to capture the maximum genetic variance and, consequently, maximum prediction ability of GY and W100S, respectively. This study demonstrated the applicability of genome-wide prediction to identify useful genetic sources of GY and W100S for Jatropha breeding. Further research is needed to confirm the applicability of the proposed approach to other complex traits.