Search

This paper applies objective methods to explore the technological origins of the widely acclaimed CRISPR breakthrough in the technological domain of genome engineering. Previously developed patent search techniques are first used to recover a set of patents that well-represent the genome editing domain before CRISPR. Main paths are then determined from the citation network associated with this patent set allowing identification of the three major knowledge trajectories. The most significant of these trajectories for CRISPR involves the core of genome editing with less significant trajectories involving cloning and endonuclease specific developments. The major patents on the core trajectory are consistent with qualitative expert knowledge of the topical area. A second set of patents that we call the CRISPR roots are obtained by finding the patents directly cited by the recent CRISPR patents along with patents cited by that set of patents. We find that the CRISPR roots contain 8 key patents from the genome engineering main path associated with restriction endonucleases and the expected strong connection of CRISPR to prior genome editing technology such as Zn finger nucleases. Nonetheless, analysis of the full CRISPR roots shows that a very wide array of technological knowledge beyond genome engineering has contributed to achieving the CRISPR breakthrough. Such breadth in origins is not surprising since "spillover" is generally perceived as important and previous qualitative studies of CRISPR have shown not only technological breadth in origins but scientific breadth as well. In addition, we find that the estimated rate of functional performance improvement of the CRISPR roots set is about 9% per year compared to the genome engineering set (~4% per year). These estimates indicate below average rates of improvement and may indicate that CRISPR (and perhaps yet undiscovered) genome engineering developments could evolve in effectiveness over an upcoming long rather than short time period.

The aim of this paper is to propose a new method to identify main paths in a technological domain using patent citations. Previous approaches for using main path analysis have greatly improved our understanding of actual technological trajectories but nonetheless have some limitations. They have high potential to miss some dominant patents from the identified main paths; nonetheless, the high network complexity of their main paths makes qualitative tracing of trajectories problematic. The proposed method searches backward and forward paths from the high-persistence patents which are identified based on a standard genetic knowledge persistence algorithm. We tested the new method by applying it to the desalination and the solar photovoltaic domains and compared the results to output from the same domains using a prior method. The empirical results show that the proposed method can dramatically reduce network complexity without missing any dominantly important patents. The main paths identified by our approach for two test cases are almost 10x less complex than the main paths identified by the existing approach. The proposed approach identifies all dominantly important patents on the main paths, but the main paths identified by the existing approach miss about 20% of dominantly important patents.

Empirical research has shown performance improvement of many different technological domains occurs exponentially but with widely varying improvement rates. What causes some technologies to improve faster than others do? Previous quantitative modeling research has identified artifact interactions, where a design change in one component influences others, as an important determinant of improvement rates. The models predict that improvement rate for a domain is proportional to the inverse of the domain's interaction parameter. However, no empirical research has previously studied and tested the dependence of improvement rates on artifact interactions. A challenge to testing the dependence is that any method for measuring interactions has to be applicable to a wide variety of technologies. Here we propose a novel patent-based method that is both technology domain-agnostic and less costly than alternative methods. We use textual content from patent sets in 27 domains to find the influence of interactions on improvement rates. Qualitative analysis identified six specific keywords that signal artifact interactions. Patent sets from each domain were then examined to determine the total count of these 6 keywords in each domain, giving an estimate of artifact interactions in each domain. It is found that improvement rates are positively correlated with the inverse of the total count of keywords with Pearson correlation coefficient of +0.56 with a p-value of 0.002. The results agree with model predictions, and provide, for the first time, empirical evidence that artifact interactions have a retarding effect on improvement rates of technological domains.