1. Framework for modelling economic impacts of invasive species, applied to pine wood nematode in Europe
- Author
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Christelle Robinet, Tarek Soliman, Wopke van der Werf, Monique Mourits, Alfons Oude Lansink, Geerten M. Hengeveld, Business Economics, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Alterra, Unité de recherche Zoologie Forestière (URZF), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), and Mourits, Monique C M
- Subjects
aphelenchoididae ,0106 biological sciences ,european ,Nematoda ,Economics ,[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] ,Cost-Benefit Analysis ,CE - Forest Ecosystems ,lcsh:Medicine ,costs ,spread ,wilt disease ,WASS ,Social Welfare ,Plant Science ,climate model ,Social and Behavioral Sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Agricultural economics ,invasive species ,Trees ,industrie forestiere ,Science Policy and Economics ,pine wood nematode ,Deadweight loss ,modele d'expansion ,pest insect ,conifer ,forestry industry ,damage ,spatial resolution ,spread model ,economic model ,risque assessment ,Wageningen Environmental Research ,Economic impact analysis ,lcsh:Science ,Valuation (finance) ,media_common ,Multidisciplinary ,biology ,insecte ravageur ,bursaphelenchus xylophilus ,Forestry ,Agriculture ,resolution spatiale ,Plants ,PE&RC ,Wood ,dégât ,Models, Economic ,impact économique ,Crop and Weed Ecology ,nématode des pins ,Research Article ,Science Policy ,united-states ,Bedrijfseconomie ,Crops ,010603 evolutionary biology ,Microbiology ,Business Economics ,media_common.cataloged_instance ,Animals ,espèce invasive ,modèle climatique ,Leerstoelgroep Gewas- en onkruidecologie ,European union ,dispersal ,bursaphelenchus-xylophilus ,Biology ,Stock (geology) ,Ecosystem ,conifère ,modèle économique ,Partial equilibrium ,lcsh:R ,Crop Diseases ,Euros ,15. Life on land ,biology.organism_classification ,13. Climate action ,lcsh:Q ,Parasitology ,Pest Control ,évaluation des risques ,Introduced Species ,Agricultural Economics ,010606 plant biology & botany - Abstract
International audience; Background: Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed. Methodology/Principal Findings: Direct economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008-2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at (sic)22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014-2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300-800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at (sic)218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of (sic)357 million, while producers experience a (sic)139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped. Conclusions/Significance: Pinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusions.
- Published
- 2012
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