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Population decline and extinction risk of riverine cetaceans are primarily associated with flow alteration. Previous studies predominantly highlighted maintenance of adequate flow for low water seasons when habitats contract and the risk of local extinction escalates. Although riverine cetaceans are sensitive to reduction in river flow, no studies quantify the relationships between flow and ecology of riverine cetaceans to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of flow alteration. We quantify the relationships between flow and the ecology of river cetaceans with reference to Ganges River dolphins (GRD; Platanista gangetica gangetica) usable area availability (AWS) for the low water season at wider flows (50-575 m3/s) at finer spatial and temporal scales. This study reveals that distribution of usable area to GRD highly regulated by the adequate flow level as the interaction of appropriate velocity and depth at particular geomorphic that likely offer energetically efficient modes of locomotion to increase surfacing behavior efficiency, suggesting the hydro-physical environment as a major determinant of river cetaceans distribution and abundance. Flow and AWS relationships indicate that the flow during dry season negatively contributed to AWS, whereas that of pre-monsoon maximized the AWS, suggesting that modifying flow regimes does alter in-stream habitats at varying spatial scales and may influence life-history strategies. Substantial fragmentation in suitable pool availability and loss of longitudinal connectivity exhibited by dry season flow suggested a higher risk of adverse biological effects during the dry season, which may reduce population viability by reducing survivorship and reproduction failure. Owing to riverine cetaceans’ dependence on the attribute of freshwater flow, they can be expected to be more affected by flow regulations as interactive effects. Considering the seasonal effects and changes in the availability of usable areas by flow alteration, adopting effective habitat retention plans by water-based development projects appears critical to avoid further ecological risks in aquatic species conservation. Identifying priority riverscapes for river cetaceans and prioritizing investment opportunities is an essential first step towards effective riverine cetacean conservation.

In an increasingly interconnected world, the demographic effects of wars are not confined only to war zones and neighbouring areas; wars and conflicts may also change populations far away. Without the war in Syria under President Assad and the associated mass exodus of Syrian refugees, the population trends in distant countries like Sweden and Norway over the last few years would have been different. We create hypothetical scenarios of the population developments in Sweden and Norway without a war in Syria from 2011 onwards, where excess immigration due to the war and associated excess births are removed. The results indicate that population growth in 2016 would have been roughly 36% lower in Sweden and 26% lower in Norway without the Syrian war. The number of births in 2017 would have been about 3% lower in Sweden and 1% lower in Norway. One in ten municipalities would have had a population decline in 2016 instead of a population increase, and the largest immigrant group in Sweden by January 2019 would still be of Finnish origin.

In a recent paper, we presented new evidence and provided new insights on the status of Cantabrian brown bear subpopulations, relevant for this species conservation. Namely, we revealed the likely phylogeographic relation between eastern Cantabrian subpopulation and the historical Pyrenean population. We have also detected an asymmetric flow of alleles and individuals from the eastern to the western subpopulation, including seven first-generation male migrants. Based on our results and on those of previous studies, we called the attention to the fact that Eastern Cantabrian brown bears might be taking advantage of increased connectivity to avoid higher human pressure and direct persecution in the areas occupied by the eastern Cantabrian subpopulation. In reply, Blanco et al (2020) [11] have criticized our ecological interpretation of the data presented in our paper. Namely, Blanco and co-authors criticize: (1) the use of the exodus concept in the title and discussion of the paper; (2) the apparent contradiction with source-sink theory; (3) the apparent overlooking of historical demographic data on Cantabrian brown bear and the use of the expression of population decline when referring to eastern subpopulation. Rather than contradicting the long and growing body of knowledge on the two brown bear subpopulations, the results presented in our paper allow a new perspective on the causes of the distinct pace of population growth of the two brown bear subpopulations in the last decades. Here, we reply to the criticisms by: clarifying our ecological interpretation of the results; refocusing the discussion on how the new genetic data suggest that currently, the flow of individuals and alleles is stronger westward, and how it may be linked to direct persecution and killing of brown bears. We provide detailed data on brown bear mortality in the Cantabrian Mountains and show that neither migration, gene flow, population increase nor mortality are balanced among the two subpopulations.

Bumble bee communities are strongly disrupted worldwide through the population decline of many species; a phenomenon that has been generally attributed to landscape modification, pesticide use, pathogens, and climate change. The mechanisms by which these causes act on bumble bee colonies are, however, likely to be complex and to involve many levels of organization spanning from the community down to the least understood individual level. Here, we assessed how the morphology, weight and foraging behavior of individual workers are affected by their surrounding landscape. We hypothesized that colonies established in landscapes showing high cover of intensive crops and low cover of flowering crops, as well as low amounts of local floral resources, would produce smaller workers, which would perform fewer foraging trips and collect pollen loads less constant in species composition. We tested these predictions with 80 colonies of commercially reared Bombus impatiens Cresson placed in 20 landscapes spanning a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Quebec, Canada. We estimated weekly rate at which workers entered and exited colonies and captured eight workers per colony over a period of 14 weeks during the spring and summer of 2016. Captured workers had their wing, thorax, head, tibia, and dry weight measured, as well as their pollen load extracted and identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level. We did not detect any effect of landscape habitat composition on worker morphology or body weight, but found that foraging activity decreased with intensive crops. Moreover, higher diversity of local floral resources led to lower pollen constancy in intensively cultivated landscapes. Finally, we found a negative correlation between the size of workers and the diversity of their pollen load. Our results provide additional evidence that conservation actions regarding pollinators in arable landscapes should be made at the landscape rather than at the farm level.

Habitat degradation and summer droughts severely restrict feeding options for the endangered southern hairy-nosed wombat (SHNW; Lasiorhinus latifrons). We reconstructed SHNW summer diets by DNA metabarcoding from feces. We initially validated rbcL and ndhJ diet reconstructions using autopsied and captive animals. Subsequent diet reconstructions of wild wombats broadly reflected vegetative ground cover, implying local rather than long-range foraging. Diets were all dominated by alien invasives. Chemical analysis of alien food revealed Carrichtera annua contains high levels of glucosinolates. Clinical examination (7 animals) and autopsy (12 animals) revealed that the most degraded site also contained most individuals showing signs of glucosinolate poisoning. We infer that dietary poisoning through the ingestion of alien invasives may have contributed to the recent population crashes in the region. In floristically diverse sites, individuals appear to be able to manage glucosinolate intake by avoidance or episodic feeding but this strategy is less tractable in the most degraded sites. We conclude that recovery of the most affected populations may require effective Carrichtera management and interim supplementary feeding. More generally, we argue that protection against population decline by poisoning in territorial herbivores requires knowledge of their diet and of those food plants containing toxic principles.

Amphibians are the focus of a recent debate and public attention owing to the global decline in their populations worldwide. Amphibians are one of the most threatened and poorly known groups of vertebrates in several geographic areas, even though they play a central role in their own ecosystems. At different levels, amphibians make their contribution to proper ecosystem functioning. They act as regulators of the food web and nutrient cycling, and they also provide several valuable ecosystem services, e.g., as a food source and as animal models for lab research. In this sense, it seems clear that the maintenance of amphibian diversity should be one of the major goals for the several countries where their population decline is observed. However, we are still struggling with the very first step of this process, i.e., the correct identification of the amphibian species diversity. Over the past few decades, research on molecular identification of amphibians using DNA barcoding has encountered some difficulties related to high variability in the mitochondrial genome of amphibians, and a research gap is noticeable in the literature. We herein evaluated both COI and 16S rRNA mitochondrial genes for the molecular identification of frogs and tadpoles in a large fragment of the South American Atlantic Rainforest in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Our results suggest that both COI and 16S rRNA are informative markers for the molecular identification of the amphibian specimens with all specimens unambiguously identified at the species level. We also made publicly available 12 new sequences of Atlantic Rainforest amphibian species for the first time, and we discussed some conservation issues related to amphibians within the Atlantic Rainforest domains in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The smalltail shark, Carcharhinus porosus, was the most abundant elasmobranch species in fisheries off Brazil’s northern coast (BNC) in the 1980s, but its population has been declining since the 1990s. For this reason, a demographic analysis is necessary to determine the extent of this decline and the fishing effect on the BNC’s population. Therefore, we performed a stochastic demographic analysis of the population in the BNC, and considered its global center of abundance. Smalltail shark specimens (n = 937) were collected with gillnets in Maranhão state, eastern BNC, in the 1980s with sizes ranging between 29.6 and 120.0 cm total length. Most of the individuals (90.6%) caught were juveniles (< 6 years-old), and the mortality and exploitation rates showed that the species was overexploited (92.3% above the fishing mortality corresponding to the population equilibrium threshold). The smalltail shark’s biological characteristics, such as slow growth and low fecundity, demonstrate that it is one of the least resilient species among similar sized coastal sharks in the region. All these factors yielded an annual decrease of 28% in the intrinsic population growth rate, resulting in a population decline of more than 90% in only 10 years, and much higher for the current period. This set of features comprising fishing recruitment occurring upon juveniles, overfishing, and intrinsically low resilience make the population unable to sustain fishing pressure and severely hamper biological recruitment, thus causing this drastic population decline. Furthermore, several local extinctions for this species in the northeastern and southeastern regions of Brazil highlight its concerning conservation scenario. Therefore, since similar fisheries characteristics occur throughout its distribution range, C. porosus fits the criteria E of the IUCN Red List for a critically endangered species and urgent conservation measures are needed to prevent its extinction in the near future.

Many ground-nesting bird species are suffering from habitat loss and population decline. Data on population ecology and demography in colonies of threatened species are thus essential for designing effective conservation protocols. Here, we used extensive ringing and observation data to estimate directly, for the first time, the survival rate of juvenile and adult Little Tern (Sternula albifrons), as well as testing for a possible effect of age on probability of survival. We estimated adult annual survival rate to be 0.77, and juvenile (first year) survival to be 0.49 with a possible linear decrease in the survival rate of the juveniles that ranged from 0.681 to 0.327. We found no evidence that survival was age-dependent among the early age classes after the first year. We discuss these findings in light of survival estimates for other species, and their implications for the Little Tern conservation.

Many native populations in South America have been severely impacted by two relatively recent historical events, the Inca and the Spanish conquest. However decisive these disruptive events may have been, the populations and their gene pools have been shaped markedly also by the history prior to the conquests. This study focuses mainly on the Chachapoya peoples that inhabit the montane forests on the eastern slopes of the northern Peruvian Andes, but also includes three distinct neighboring populations (the Jívaro, the Huancas and the Cajamarca). By assessing mitochondrial, Y-chromosomal and autosomal diversity in the region, we explore questions that have emerged from archaeological and historical studies of the regional culture (s). These studies have shown, among others, that Chachapoyas was a crossroads for Coast-Andes-Amazon interactions since very early times. In this study, we examine the following questions: 1) was there pre-Hispanic genetic population substructure in the Chachapoyas sample? 2) did the Spanish conquest cause a more severe population decline on Chachapoyan males than on females? 3) can we detect different patterns of European gene flow in the Chachapoyas region? and, 4) did the demographic history in the Chachapoyas resemble the one from the Andean area? Despite cultural differences within the Chachapoyas region as shown by archaeological and ethnohistorical research, genetic markers show no significant evidence for past or current population substructure, although an Amazonian gene flow dynamic in the northern part of this territory is suggested. The data also indicates a bottleneck c. 25 generations ago that was more severe among males than females, as well as divergent population histories for populations in the Andean and Amazonian regions. In line with previous studies, we observe high genetic diversity in the Chachapoyas, despite the documented dramatic population declines. The diverse topography and great biodiversity of the northeastern Peruvian montane forests are potential contributing agents in shaping and maintaining the high genetic diversity in the Chachapoyas region.

A suite of factors may have contributed to declines in the tītī (sooty shearwater; Ardenna grisea) population in the New Zealand region since at least the 1960s. Recent estimation of the magnitude of most sources of non-natural mortality has presented the opportunity to quantitatively assess the relative importance of these factors. We fit a range of population dynamics models to a time-series of relative abundance data from 1976 until 2005, with the various sources of mortality being modelled at the appropriate part of the life-cycle. We present estimates of effects obtained from the best-fitting model and using model averaging. The best-fitting models explained much of the variation in the abundance index when survival and fecundity were linked to the Southern Oscillation Index, with strong decreases in adult survival, juvenile survival and fecundity being related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Predation by introduced animals, harvesting by humans, and bycatch in fisheries also appear to have contributed to the population decline. It is envisioned that the best-fitting models will form the basis for quantitative assessments of competing management strategies. Our analysis suggests that sustainability of the New Zealand tītī population will be most influenced by climate, in particular by how climate change will affect the frequency and intensity of ENSO events in the future. Removal of the effects of both depredation by introduced predators and harvesting by humans is likely to have fewer benefits for the population than alleviating climate effects.

The extraordinary population growth of the 20th century will subside in the 21st century, followed by depopulation, constituting the first population decline phase in human history in Japan and other developed countries. The drivers of land-use change during the population decline phase are expected to differ from those of the population growth phase; however, research on land-use drivers during the decline phase is limited. Identifying these drivers is necessary to develop effective management plans for biodiversity and ecosystem services in the decline phase. First, we calculated the probability of farmland abandonment in Hokkaido, a Japanese food production area, from 1973-2009 and divided the period into the population growth phase (1978-1997) and the decline phase (1997-2009). We examined various geographical and social factors that were assumed to alter the land use during these two phases. Geographical and social conditions are key factors in determining the probability of farmland abandonment, but their influences varied between the two phases. The farmlands located on geographically uncultivable sites, such as marginal, underproductive, narrow, and steep land, were abandoned during these phases; however, social conditions, such as the distance from densely inhabited districts (DIDs) and the population, exerted opposite effects during these two phases. Farmland abandonment occurred near DIDs (i.e., urban areas) during the population growth phase, whereas farmland abandonment occurred far from DIDs and sparsely populated farmlands during the decline phase. Farmland abandonment was strongly affected by government policy during the population growth phase, but the policy weakened during the decline phase, which triggered farmland abandonment throughout Hokkaido. The geographical and social drivers found in the present study may provide new insights for other developed countries experiencing depopulation problems.

Flour beetles are a classic model system for studying competitive dynamics between species occupying the same ecological niche. Competitive performance is often interpreted in terms of biological species traits such as fecundity, resource use, and predation. However, many studies only measure competitive ability when species enter an environment simultaneously, and thus do not consider how the relative timing of species' arrival may determine competitive outcome (i.e., priority effects). Whether priority effects may influence competition in Tribolium remains to be tested. The present study examined the importance of priority effects in competitions between two common species of flour beetle (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae): Tribolium castaneum and T. confusum. To investigate whether priority effects confer competitive advantages to Tribolium beetles, relative introduction times of T. castaneum and T. confusum to competitive arenas were manipulated, and adult populations were measured for seven months. Four important patterns were noted: (1) Tribolium species given two-weeks priority access to experimental arenas attained larger populations than their late-arriving competitor, (2) when founding adults were introduced simultaneously, T. castaneum was competitively dominant, (3) T. castaneum benefited more from priority arrival than T. confusum, and (4) available bran resources largely predicted population decline in adult beetles toward the end of the experiment. These results suggest competitive outcome in Tribolium is not always predicted by species' identity, and that performance could instead be determined by the timing of species' arrivals and available resources.

The rapid decline of a few Emberiza bunting species is increasing conservation concerns, especially in Asia. However, temporal changes in communities and populations of buntings, ones of the most common migratory songbirds in Korea, have not been quantitatively assessed. To understand how the status of buntings has changed over the past 100 years, we collated abundance data from museum collections and bird-banding records between 1910 and 2019. We also used presence-absence data for buntings collected by a nationwide census scheme between 1997 to 2012. Our analysis showed that bunting communities reconstructed from museum-specimen and bird-banding data were not significantly different; however, community composition differed over time. The Meadow (E. cioides), Yellow-throated (E. elegans), Black-faced (E. spodocephala), Rustic (E. rustica) and Chestnut Buntings (E. rutila), which are still common or were once common species, significantly affected the temporal changes in bunting community composition. There were no recent changes in the presence of Rustic and Chestnut Buntings since 1997, but they caused medium-term changes in the bunting community composition, suggesting that there was a sharp to moderate decline in their numbers in the past. The probability of the presence of six bunting species decreased annually, with the most prominent decline in two common breeders, the Meadow (-2.99%/year) and Yellow-throated Buntings (-1.82%/year). This finding suggests that breeding buntings in Korea are under high pressure, as are the migratory buntings. Moreover, despite its recent population decline, the Yellow-throated Bunting was still a major contributor to the community, suggesting that bunting diversity has also been deteriorating while bunting populations are shrinking. Long-term monitoring schemes across their distribution ranges, international cooperation for identifying major threats and key areas of conservation, and law enforcement against illegal hunting and habitat loss are strongly required to mitigate the on-going decline of buntings in Korea and Asia.

Disease transmission and epidemic prevention are top conservation concerns for wildlife managers, especially for small, isolated populations. Previous studies have shown that the course of an epidemic within a heterogeneous host population is strongly influenced by whether pathogens are introduced to regions of relatively high or low host densities. This raises the question of how disease monitoring and vaccination programs are influenced by spatial heterogeneity in host distributions. We addressed this question by modeling vaccination and monitoring strategies for the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis), which has a history of substantial population decline due to introduced disease. We simulated various strategies to detect and prevent epidemics of rabies and canine distemper using a spatially explicit model, which was parameterized from field studies. Increasing sentinel monitoring frequency, and to a lesser degree, the number of monitored sentinels from 50 to 150 radio collared animals, reduced the time to epidemic detection and percentage of the fox population infected at the time of detection for both pathogens. Fox density at the location of pathogen introduction had little influence on the time to detection, but a large influence on how many foxes had become infected by the detection day, especially when sentinels were monitored relatively infrequently. The efficacy of different vaccination strategies was heavily influenced by local host density at the site of pathogen entry. Generally, creating a vaccine firewall far away from the site of pathogen entry was the least effective strategy. A firewall close to the site of pathogen entry was generally more effective than a random distribution of vaccinated animals when pathogens entered regions of high host density, but not when pathogens entered regions of low host density. These results highlight the importance of considering host densities at likely locations of pathogen invasion when designing disease management plans.

Given the uncertain population status of low-density, widely-occurring raptors, monitoring changes in abundance and distribution is critical to conserving populations. Nest-based monitoring is a common, useful approach, but the difficulty and expense of monitoring raptor nests and importance of reliable trend data to conservation requires that limited resources are allocated efficiently. Power analyses offer a helpful tool to ensure that monitoring programs have the ability to detect trends and to optimize financial resources devoted to monitoring. We evaluated alternative monitoring designs for raptors to identify appropriate survey effort to detect population trends. We used data collected from a territory-occupancy study of ferruginous hawks throughout Wyoming to guide simulations and evaluate the ability to detect trends in occupancy rates. Results suggest that greater gains in precision of trend estimation may be achieved through the addition of more sites and not more visits; statistical power was ≥80% when monitoring lasted 20 years and population declines were 20%; and probability of detection affected statistical power less than rates of population decline. Monitoring at least 150 sites for 20 years would provide reasonable estimates of trend in occupancy given certain rates of detection and occupancy, but only for population declines of 20%. Removal sampling did not result in substantial changes of any metrics used to evaluate simulations, providing little justification for employing the standard design if territory occupancy is the variable of interest. Initial rates of territory occupancy may be biased high, a problem inherent to many studies that monitor territory occupancy. We explored the effects of lower rates of initial occupancy on the ability to detect trends. Although we present data from a study of ferruginous hawks, our simulations can be applied to other raptor species with similar life history and population dynamics to provide guidance for future trend estimation of territory occupancy.

Fungi are increasingly being documented as causing disease in a wide range of faunal species, including Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungus responsible for white nose syndrome which is having a devastating impact on bats in North America. The population size of the Australian southern bent-winged bat (Miniopterus orianae bassanii), a critically endangered subspecies, has declined over the past 50 years. As part of a larger study to determine whether disease could be a contributing factor to this decline, southern bent-winged bats were tested for the presence of a range of potentially pathogenic fungi: P. destructans, dermatophytes and Histoplasma capsulatum (a potential human pathogen commonly associated with caves inhabited by bats). Results were compared with those obtained for the more common eastern bent-winged bat (M. orianae oceanensis). All bats and their environment were negative for P. destructans. A large number of fungi were found on the skin and fur of bats, most of which were environmental or plant associated, and none of which were likely to be of significant pathogenicity for bats. A 0–19% prevalence of H. capsulatum was detected in the bat populations sampled, but not in the environment, indicative of a low zoonotic risk. Based on the results of this study, fungi are unlikely to be contributing significantly to the population decline of the southern bent-winged bat.

IntroductionDemographic changes as a result of evacuation in the acute phase of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster are not well evaluated. We estimated post-disaster demographic transitions in Minamisoma City-located 14-38 km north of the nuclear plant-in the first month of the disaster; and identified demographic factors associated with the population remaining in the affected areas.Materials and methodsWe extracted data from the evacuation behavior survey administered to participants in the city between July 11, 2011 and April 30, 2013. Using mathematical models, we estimated the total population in the city after the disaster according to sex, age group, and administrative divisions of the city. To investigate factors associated with the population remaining in place after the disaster, a probit regression model was employed, taking into account sex, age, pre-disaster dwelling area, and household composition.ResultsThe overall population decline in Minamisoma City peaked 11 days after the disaster, when the population reached 7,107 people-11% of the pre-disaster level. The remaining population levels differed by area: 1.1% for mandatory evacuation zone, 12.5% for indoor sheltering zone, and 12.6% for other areas of the city. Based on multiple regression analyses, higher odds for remaining in place were observed among men (odds ratio 1.72 [95% confidence intervals 1.64-1.85]) than women; among people aged 40-64 years (1.40 [1.24-1.58]) than those aged 75 years or older; and among those living with the elderly, aged 70 years or older (1.18 [1.09-1.27]) or those living alone (1.71 [1.50-1.94]) than among those who were not.DiscussionDespite the evacuation order, some residents of mandatory evacuation zones remained in place, signaling the need for preparation to respond to their post-disaster needs. Indoor sheltering instructions may have accelerated voluntary evacuation, and this demonstrates the need for preventing potentially disorganized evacuation in future nuclear events.

While bats are often viewed as carriers of infectious disease agents, little research has been conducted on the effects these potential pathogens may have on the bat populations themselves. The southern bent-winged bat (Miniopterus orianae bassanii) is a critically endangered subspecies endemic to south-eastern Australia. Population numbers of this bat have been declining for the past 50 years, but the reasons for this are unclear. As part of a larger study to determine if disease could be a contributing factor to this decline, 351 southern bent-winged bats from four locations were captured, and oral swabs were collected and tested for the presence of potentially pathogenic viruses. Results were compared with those obtained from 116 eastern bent-winged bats (Miniopterus orianae oceanensis) from three different locations. The eastern bent-winged bat is a related but more common and widespread subspecies whose geographical range overlaps partly with southern bent-winged bats. Herpesviruses were detected in bent-winged bats from all seven locations. At least six novel herpesviruses (five betaherpesviruses and one gammaherpesvirus) were identified. The prevalence of herpesvirus infection was higher in eastern bent-winged bats (44%, 51/116), compared to southern bent-winged bats (27%, 95/351), although this varied across the locations and sampling periods. Adenoviruses and a range of different RNA viruses (lyssaviruses, filoviruses, coronaviruses and henipaviruses) were also tested for but not detected. The detected herpesviruses did not appear to be associated with obvious ill health, and may thus not be playing a role in the population decline of the southern bent-winged bat. The detection of multiple novel herpesviruses at a high prevalence of infection is consistent with our understanding of bats as hosts to a rich diversity of viruses.

© This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. Disease outbreaks can have substantial impacts on wild populations, but the often patchy or anecdotal evidence of these impacts impedes our ability to understand outbreak dynamics. Recently however, a severe disease outbreak occurred in a group of very well-studied organisms–sea stars along the west coast of North America. We analyzed nearly two decades of data from a coordinated monitoring effort at 88 sites ranging from southern British Columbia to San Diego, California along with 2 sites near Sitka, Alaska to better understand the effects of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) on the keystone intertidal predator, Pisaster ochraceus. Quantitative surveys revealed unprecedented declines of P. ochraceus in 2014 and 2015 across nearly the entire geographic range of the species. The intensity of the impact of SSWD was not uniform across the affected area, with proportionally greater population declines in the southern regions relative to the north. The degree of population decline was unrelated to pre-outbreak P. ochraceus density, although these factors have been linked in other well-documented disease events. While elevated seawater temperatures were not broadly linked to the initial emergence of SSWD, anomalously high seawater temperatures in 2014 and 2015 might have exacerbated the disease’s impact. Both before and after the onset of the SSWD outbreak, we documented higher recruitment of P. ochraceus in the north than in the south, and while some juveniles are surviving (as evidenced by transition of recruitment pulses to larger size classes), post-SSWD survivorship is lower than during pre-SSWD periods. In hindsight, our data suggest that the SSWD event defied prediction based on two factors found to be important in other marine disease events, sea water temperature and population density, and illustrate the importance of surveillance of natural populations as one element of an integrated approach to marine disease ecology. Low levels of SSWD-symptomatic sea stars are still present throughout the impacted range, thus the outlook for population recovery is uncertain.

Pressures on freshwater biodiversity in Southeast Asia are accelerating yet the status and conservation needs of many of the region's threatened fish species are unclear. This impacts the ability to implement conservation activities and to understand the effects of infrastructure developments and other hydrological changes. We used Local Ecological Knowledge from fishing communities on the Mekong River in the Siphandone waterscape, Lao PDR to estimate mean and mode last capture dates of eight rare or culturally significant fish species in order to provide conservation monitoring baselines. One hundred and twenty fishermen, from six villages, were interviewed. All eight species had been captured, by at least one of the interviewees, within the waterscape within the past year. However the mean and mode last capture dates varied between the species. Larger species, and those with higher Red List threat status, were caught less recently than smaller species of less conservation concern. The status of the Critically Endangered Pangasius sanitwongsei (mean last capture date 116.4 months) is particularly worrying suggesting severe population decline although cultural issues may have caused this species to have been under-reported. This highlights that studies making use of Local Ecological Knowledge need to understand the cultural background and context from which data is collected. Nevertheless we recommend our approach, of stratified random interviews to establish mean last capture dates, may be an effective methodology for monitoring freshwater fish species of conservation concern within artisanal fisheries. If fishing effort remains relatively constant, or if changes in fishing effort are accounted for, differences over time in mean last capture dates are likely to represent changes in the status of species. We plan to repeat our interview surveys within the waterscape as part of a long-term fish-monitoring program.

Averaged demographic data from previously unfished populations of Nautilus and Allonautilus (Cephalopoda) provide a baseline to determine if a population is undisturbed and in “equilibrium” or is in “disequilibrium” as a result of fishery pressure. Data are available for previously undisturbed local nautiloid populations in Papua New Guinea, Australia, Indonesia, Fiji, Palau, American Samoa, New Caledonia and Vanuatu (total n = 2,669 live-caught, tagged and released animals). The data show that unfished populations average ~75% males and ~74% mature animals. By contrast, unpublished, anecdotal and historical records since 1900 from the heavily fished central Philippines have shown a persistent decline in trap yields and a change in demographics of N. pompilius. By 1979, a sample of fished live-caught animals (n = 353) comprised only ~28% males and ~27% mature animals. Continued uncontrolled trapping caused collapse of the fishery and the shell industry has moved elsewhere, including Indonesia. In addition, we show that estimated rates of population decline are offered by unpublished tag-release records in unfished Palau. These data show that patterns of trap yields and demographic differences between fished and unfished populations in relative age class and sex ratios can indicate disequilibria wrought by fisheries pressure that can render local populations inviable. Given adequate samples (n ≥100 live-caught animals), a threshold of

Identification of early warning signals previous to the occurrence of population decline or extinction is a major challenge for the conservation of animal species. Prevalence of morphological abnormalities in a population can be one of these signals. We registered morphological abnormalities in the salamander Ambystoma ordinarium. We also evaluated the relation between habitat quality and the prevalence of abnormalities in this species. We used scores from rapid bioassessment protocols (RBPs) to assess the habitat quality of streams inhabited by A. ordinarium. A preliminary survey indicated that of 29 streams where this species has been historically registered, 13 might have few or no A. ordinarium. The association between habitat quality and the incidence of morphological abnormalities was evaluated in these 16 streams. Of 502 sampled individuals, 224 (44.62%) had at least one body abnormality. Of the 224 individuals with body abnormalities, 84 (37.5%) presented more than one abnormality. Of a total of 5,522 evaluated morphological characters, 344 (6.74%) were abnormal. Partial loss of gills and missing digits were the most frequent abnormalities. Results of a binomial logistic regression indicated that the probability of a character of an individual to be abnormal was significantly associated with habitat quality; as the levels of the quality of the habitat increased, the prevalence of morphological abnormalities decreased. These results suggest that RBPs are a quick and useful method for assessing the habitat quality of streams inhabited by A. ordinarium. Given that RBPs provide rapid and cost-effective assessments of the ecological health of aquatic ecosystems, it will be important to test if the RBPs protocols can be used to rapidly assess habitat quality for other species of stream amphibians. The negative association between habitat quality and the prevalence of morpohological abnormalities that we found indicates that habitat condition plays an important role in the high number of abnormalities registered in A. ordinarium. Therefore, our results suggest that one of the several negative effects of habitat degradation on amphibians is an increase in the frequency of morphological abnormalities with marked consequences for the survival and general fitness of aquatic amphibians.

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

Uncovering the population genetic histories of non-model organisms is increasingly possible through advances in next generation sequencing and DNA sampling of museum specimens. This new information can inform conservation of threatened species, particularly those for which historical and contemporary population data are unavailable or challenging to obtain. The critically endangered, nomadic regent honeyeater Anthochaera phrygia was abundant and widespread throughout south-eastern Australia prior to a rapid population decline and range contraction since the 1970s. A current estimated population of 250-400 individuals is distributed sparsely across 600,000 km2 from northern Victoria to southern Queensland. Using hybridization RAD (hyRAD) techniques, we obtained a SNP dataset from 64 museum specimens (date 1879-1960), 102 'recent' (1989-2012) and 52 'current' (2015-2016) wild birds sampled throughout the historical and contemporary range. We aimed to estimate population genetic structure, genetic diversity and population size of the regent honeyeater prior to its rapid decline. We then assessed the impact of the decline on recent and current population size, structure and genetic diversity. Museum sampling showed population structure in regent honeyeaters was historically low, which remains the case despite a severe fragmentation of the breeding range. Population decline has led to minimal loss of genetic diversity since the 1980's. Capacity to quantify the overall magnitude of both genetic diversity loss and population decline was limited by the poorer quality of genomic data derived from museum specimens. A rapid population decline, coupled with the regent honeyeater's high mobility, means a detectable genomic impact of this decline has not yet manifested. Extinction may occur in this nomadic species before a detectable genomic impact of small population size is realised. We discuss the implications for genetic management of endangered mobile species and enhancing the value of museum specimens in population genomic studies.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an invariably fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of white-tailed deer, mule deer, elk, and moose. Despite a 100% fatality rate, areas of high prevalence, and increasingly expanding geographic endemic areas, little is known about the population-level effects of CWD in deer. To investigate these effects, we tested the null hypothesis that high prevalence CWD did not negatively impact white-tailed deer population sustainability. The specific objectives of the study were to monitor CWD-positive and CWD-negative white-tailed deer in a high-prevalence CWD area longitudinally via radio-telemetry and global positioning system (GPS) collars. For the two populations, we determined the following: a) demographic and disease indices, b) annual survival, and c) finite rate of population growth (λ). The CWD prevalence was higher in females (42%) than males (28.8%) and hunter harvest and clinical CWD were the most frequent causes of mortality, with CWD-positive deer over-represented in harvest and total mortalities. Survival was significantly lower for CWD-positive deer and separately by sex; CWD-positive deer were 4.5 times more likely to die annually than CWD-negative deer while bucks were 1.7 times more likely to die than does. Population λ was 0.896 (0.859–0.980), which indicated a 10.4% annual decline. We show that a chronic disease that becomes endemic in wildlife populations has the potential to be population-limiting and the strong population-level effects of CWD suggest affected populations are not sustainable at high disease prevalence under current harvest levels.

Land-use change and global warming are important factors driving bee decline, but it is largely unknown whether these drivers have resulted in changes in the life-history traits of bees. Recent studies have shown a stronger population decline of large- than small-bodied bee species, suggesting there may have been selective pressure on large, but not on small species to become smaller. Here we test this hypothesis by analyzing trends in bee body size of 18 Dutch species over a 147-year period using specimens from entomological collections. Large-bodied female bees shrank significantly faster than small-bodied female bees (6.5% and 0.5% respectively between 1900 and 2010). Changes in temperature during the flight period of bees did not influence the size-dependent shrinkage of female bees. Male bees did not shrink significantly over the same time period. Our results could imply that under conditions of declining habitat quantity and quality it is advantageous for individuals to be smaller. The size and sex-dependent responses of bees point towards an evolutionary response but genetic studies are required to confirm this. The declining body size of the large bee species that currently dominate flower visitation of both wild plants and insect-pollinated crops may have negative consequences for pollination service delivery.

The aim of this study was to investigate how landscape disturbance associated with roads, agriculture and forestry influenced temporal patterns in woylie (Bettongia penicillata) abundance before, during and after periods of rapid population change. Data were collected from an area of approximately 140,000 ha of forest within the Upper Warren region in south-western Australia. Woylie abundance was measured using cage trapping at 22 grid and five transect locations with varying degrees of landscape disturbance between 1994 and 2012. We found evidence that the distribution and abundance of woylies over time appears to be related to the degree of fragmentation by roads and proximity to agriculture. Sites furthest from agriculture supported a greater abundance of woylies and had slower rates of population decline. Sites with fewer roads had a greater abundance of woylies generally and a greater rate of increase in abundance after the implementation of invasive predator control. The results of this study suggest that landscape disturbance is less important at peak population densities, but during times of environmental and population change, sites less dissected by roads and agriculture better support woylie populations. This may be due to the role these factors play in increasing the vulnerability of woylies to introduced predators, population fragmentation, weed species invasion, mortality from road collisions or a reduction in available habitat. Strategies that reduce the impact of disturbance on woylie populations could include the rationalisation of forest tracks and consolidation of contiguous habitat through the acquisition of private property. Reducing the impact of disturbance in the Upper Warren region could improve the resilience of this critically important woylie population during future environmental change.

Socio-economic and environmental changes are well known causes of demographic collapse of agrarian cultures. The collapse of human societies is a complex phenomenon where historical and cultural dimensions play a key role, and they may interact with the environmental context. However, the importance of the interaction between socio-economic and climatic factors in explaining possible breakdowns in Native American societies has been poorly explored. The aim of this study is to test the role of socio-economic causes and rainfall variability in the collapse suffered by the Aymara people of the semiarid Andean region of Tarapaca during the period 1820–1970. Our motivation is to demonstrate that simple population dynamic models can be helpful in understanding the causes and relative importance of population changes in Andean agro-pastoral societies in responses to socio-environmental variability. Simple logistic models that combine the effects of external socio-economic causes and past rainfall variability (inferred from Gross Domestic Product [GDP] and tree-rings, respectively) were quite accurate in predicting the sustained population decline of the Aymara people. Our results suggest that the depopulation in the semiarid Tarapaca province was caused by the interaction among external socio-economic pressures given by the economic growth of the lowlands and demands for labor coupled with a persistent decline in rainfall. This study constitutes an example of how applied ecological knowledge, in particular the application of the logistic equation and theories pertaining to nonlinear population dynamics and exogenous perturbations, can be used to better understand major demographic changes in human societies.

The global spread of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) is associated with amphibian mass mortality, population decline, and extinction. Over the past decade, concern has been expressed for the potential introduction of Bd to Madagascar, a global hotspot of amphibian biodiversity. Following years without detection, widespread Bd presence in Madagascar has now been reported (Bletz et al. 2015a), raising international conservation concern. Before reacting to this finding with a significant management response, the accuracy and context of the data warrant cautious review. Re-examination of a 10-year dataset together with results from more recent surveillance (Kolby et al. 2015) does not yet demonstrate widespread Bd presence. Detection of Bd at "positive" locations in Madagascar has been inconsistent for unknown reasons. Whether Bd is established in Madagascar (i.e. populations are self-sustaining) or instead requires continued introduction to persist also remains uncertain. The deployment of emergency conservation rescue initiatives is expected to target areas where the distribution of Bd and the risk of chytridiomycosis endangering amphibians is believed to overlap. Thus, erroneous description of Bd presence would misdirect limited conservation resources. Standardized surveillance and confirmatory surveys are now imperative to reliably characterize the distribution, potential spread, virulence and overall risk of Bd to amphibians in Madagascar.

Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru’s most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest in a wild parrot population and highlight the importance of preventing illegal trade.

Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon.

The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines.

PLoS ONE 10(9): e0137877 Habitat loss causes population declines, but the mechanisms are rarely known. In the European Boreal Zone, loss of old forest due to intensive forestry is suspected to cause declines in forest-dwelling raptors by reducing their breeding performance. We studied the boreal breeding habitat and habitat-associated breeding performance of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), common buzzard (Buteo buteo) and European honey buzzard (Pernis apivorus). We combined long-term Finnish bird-of-prey data with multi-source national forest inventory data at various distances (100–4000 m) around the hawk nests. We found that breeding success of the goshawk was best explained by the habitat within a 2000-m radius around the nests; breeding was more successful with increasing proportions of old spruce forest and water, and decreasing proportions of young thinning forest. None of the habitat variables affected significantly the breeding success of the common buzzard or the honey buzzard, or the brood size of any of the species. The amount of old spruce forest decreased both around goshawk and common buzzard nests and throughout southern Finland in 1992–2010. In contrast, the area of young forest increased in southern Finland but not around hawk nests. We emphasize the importance of studying habitats at several spatial and temporal scales to determine the relevant species-specific scale and to detect environmental changes. Further effort is needed to reconcile the socioeconomic and ecological functions of forests and habitat requirements of old forest specialists.

After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas.

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

Ichthyophis bannanicus is the only caecilian species in China. In this study, the phylogeography and population demography of I. bannanicus were explored, based on the mitochondrial DNA genes (cyt b and ND2) and 15 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Altogether 158 individuals were collected from five populations in Yunnan province, Guangxi province, Guangdong province, and Northern Vietnam. Phylogeographical and population structure analysis identified either two groups (Xishuangbanna, Northern Vietnam-Yulin-Yangchun-Deqing) or three groups (Xishuangbanna, Northern Vietnam-Yulin-Yangchun, and Deqing), indicating that the Red River and Pearl River systems may have acted as gene-flow barriers for I. bannanicus. Historical population expansion that happened 15–17 Ka ago was detected for mtDNA data and was possibly triggered by warmer weather after the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the Bayesian simulations of population history based on microsatellite data pinpointed population decline in all populations since 19,123 to 1,029 years ago, demonstrating a significant influence of anthropogenic habitat alteration on I. bannanicus.

Australia has experienced dramatic declines and extinctions of its native rodent species over the last 200 years, particularly in southern Australia. In the tropical savanna of northern Australia significant declines have occurred only in recent decades. The later onset of these declines suggests that the causes may differ from earlier declines in the south. We examine potential regional effects (northern versus southern Australia) on biological and ecological correlates of range decline in Australian rodents. We demonstrate that rodent declines have been greater in the south than in the tropical north, are strongly influenced by phylogeny, and are consistently greater for species inhabiting relatively open or sparsely vegetated habitat. Unlike in marsupials, where some species have much larger body size than rodents, body mass was not an important predictor of decline in rodents. All Australian rodent species are within the prey-size range of cats (throughout the continent) and red foxes (in the south). Contrary to the hypothesis that mammal declines are related directly to ecosystem productivity (annual rainfall), our results are consistent with the hypothesis that disturbances such as fire and grazing, which occur in non-rainforest habitats and remove cover used by rodents for shelter, nesting and foraging, increase predation risk. We agree with calls to introduce conservation management that limits the size and intensity of fires, increases fire patchiness and reduces grazing impacts at ecological scales appropriate for rodents. Controlling feral predators, even creating predator-free reserves in relatively sparsely-vegetated habitats, is urgently required to ensure the survival of rodent species, particularly in northern Australia where declines are not yet as severe as those in the south.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

The source populations of tigers are mostly confined to protected areas, which are now becoming isolated. A landscape scale conservation strategy should strive to facilitate dispersal and survival of dispersing tigers by managing habitat corridors that enable tigers to traverse the matrix with minimal conflict. We present evidence for tiger dispersal along transboundary protected areas complexes in the Terai Arc Landscape, a priority tiger landscape in Nepal and India, by comparing camera trap data, and through population models applied to the long term camera trap data sets. The former showed that 11 individual tigers used the corridors that connected the transboundary protected areas. The estimated population growth rates using the minimum observed population size in two protected areas in Nepal, Bardia National Park and Suklaphanta National Park showed that the increases were higher than expected from growth rates due to in situ reproduction alone. These lines of evidence suggests that tigers are recolonizing Nepal’s protected areas from India, after a period of population decline, and that the tiger populations in the transboundary protected areas complexes may be maintained as meta-population. Our results demonstrate the importance of adopting a landscape-scale approach to tiger conservation, especially to improve population recovery and long term population persistence.

In the last decades, a number of studies based on historical records revealed the diversity loss in the oceans and human-induced changes to marine ecosystems. These studies have improved our understanding of the human impacts in the oceans. They also drew attention to the shifting baseline syndrome and the importance of assessing appropriate sources of data in order to build the most reliable environmental baseline. Here we amassed information from artisanal fishermen's local ecological knowledge, fisheries landing data and underwater visual census to assess the decline of fish species in Southeastern Brazil. Interviews with 214 fishermen from line, beach seine and spearfishing revealed a sharp decline in abundance of the bluefish Pomatomus saltatrix, the groupers Epinephelus marginatus, Mycteroperca acutirostris, M. bonaci and M. microlepis, and large parrotfishes in the past six decades. Fisheries landing data from a 16-year period support the decline of bluefish as pointed by fishermen's local knowledge, while underwater visual census campaigns show reductions in groupers' abundance and a sharp population decline of the Brazilian endemic parrotfish Scarus trispinosus. Despite the marked decline of these fisheries, younger and less experienced fishermen recognized fewer species as overexploited and fishing sites as depleted than older and more experienced fishermen, indicating the occurrence of the shifting baseline syndrome. Here we show both the decline of multigear fisheries catches – combining anecdotal and scientific data – as well as changes in environmental perceptions over generations of fishermen. Managing ocean resources requires looking into the past, and into traditional knowledge, bringing historical baselines to the present and improving public awareness.

Understanding what constitutes high quality habitat is crucial for the conservation of species, especially those threatened with extinction. Habitat quality frequently is inferred by comparing the attributes of sites where a species is present with those where it is absent. However, species presence may not always indicate high quality habitat. Demographic parameters are likely to provide a more biologically relevant measure of quality, including a species’ ability to successfully reproduce. We examined factors believed to influence territory quality for the grey-crowned babbler (Pomatostomus temporalis), a cooperatively breeding woodland bird that has experienced major range contraction and population decline in south-eastern Australia. Across three broad regions, we identified active territories and determined the presence of fledglings and the size of family groups, as surrogates of territory quality. These measures were modelled in relation to habitat attributes within territories, the extent of surrounding wooded vegetation, isolation from neighbouring groups, and the size of the neighbourhood population. Fledgling presence was strongly positively associated with group size, indicating that helpers enhance breeding success. Surprisingly, no other territory or landscape-scale variables predicted territory quality, as inferred from either breeding success or group size. Relationships between group size and environmental variables may be obscured by longer-term dynamics in group size. Variation in biotic interactions, notably competition from the noisy miner (Manorina melanocephala), also may contribute. Conservation actions that enhance the number and size of family groups will contribute towards reversing declines of this species. Despite associated challenges, demographic studies have potential to identify mechanistic processes that underpin population performance; critical knowledge for effective conservation management.

White-Nose syndrome (WNS) is an emergent infectious disease that has already killed around six million bats in North America and has spread over two thousand kilometers from its epicenter. However, only a few studies on the possible impacts of the fungus on bat hosts were conducted, particularly concerning its implications for bat conservation. We predicted the consequences of WNS spread by generating a map with potential areas for its occurrence based on environmental conditions in sites where the disease already occurs, and overlaid it with the geographic distribution of all hibernating bats in North America. We assumed that all intersection localities would negatively affect local bat populations and reassessed their conservation status based on their potential population decline. Our results suggest that WNS will not spread widely throughout North America, being mostly restricted to the east and southeast regions. In contrast, our most pessimistic scenario of population decline indicated that the disease would threaten 32% of the bat species. Our results could help further conservation plans to preserve bat diversity in North America.

Adult mortality can be a major driver of population decline in species whose productivity is relatively low. Yet, little is known about the factors influencing adult survival rates in migratory bird species, nor do we know much about the longer-term effects of habitat disturbance on the fitness of individuals. The Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) is one of the vertebrate species most sensitive to forest management, yet it is still common and widespread. We monitored the fate of 330 colour-banded Ovenbird males in four pairs of 25-ha plots during 9 successive breeding seasons. One plot of each pair was treated through selection harvesting (30-40% basal area removed) during the first winter. We tested the following hypotheses: (1) higher physiological costs in harvested plots as a result of lower food abundance will reduce apparent survival rate (ASR) relative to controls; (2) lower ASR following years with low nest survival and higher probability of renesting; (3) fluctuations in ASR reflecting El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and (4) higher ASR in returning males than in recruits (unbanded immigrants) owing to greater site familiarity in the former. We tested the relative importance of these hypotheses, or combinations thereof, by generating 23 models explaining variation in ASR. The year-dependent model received the most support, showing a 41% decrease in ASR from 2007 to 2014. The important year-to-year variation we observed in ASR (Σw(i) = 0.99) was not explained by variation in nest predation risk nor by ENSO. There was also little evidence for an effect of selection harvesting on ASR of Ovenbird males, despite a slight reduction in lifespan relative to males from control plots (2.7 vs 2.9 years). An avenue worth exploring to explain this intriguing pattern would be to determine whether conditions at migratory stopover sites or in the wintering area of our focal population have gradually worsened over the past decade.

Steller sea lions were listed as endangered following a collapse of the western distinct population beginning in the late 1970s. Low juvenile survival has been implicated as a factor in the decline. I conducted a multistate mark-recapture analysis to estimate juvenile survival in an area of the western population where sea lions are showing signs of recovery. Survival for males and females was 80% between 3 weeks and 1 year of age. Approximately 20% of juveniles continued to be nursed by their mothers between ages 1 and 2 and 10% between ages 2 and 3. Survival for juveniles that suckled beyond 1 year was 88.2% and 89.9% to ages 2 and 3, respectively. In contrast, survival for individuals weaned by age 1 was 40.6% for males and 64.2% for females between ages 1 and 2. Birth mass positively influenced survival for juveniles weaned at age 1 but had little effect on individuals continuing to suckle. Cumulative survival to age 4 was double that estimated during the population decline in this region. Evidence suggests that western Steller sea lions utilize a somewhat different maternal strategy than those in the eastern distinct population. Western adult females generally invest more in their pups during the first year but wean offspring by age 1 more often. This results in better survival to age 1, but greater mortality between ages 1 and 3 compared to the eastern population. Different maternal strategies may reflect density dependent pressures of populations at opposite levels of abundance.

Although many people have expressed alarm that we are witnessing a mass extinction, few projections have been quantified, owing to limited availability of time-series data on threatened organisms, especially plants. To quantify the risk of extinction, we need to monitor changes in population size over time for as many species as possible. Here, we present the world's first quantitative projection of plant species loss at a national level, with stochastic simulations based on the results of population censuses of 1618 threatened plant taxa in 3574 map cells of ca. 100 km2. More than 500 lay botanists helped monitor those taxa in 1994-1995 and in 2003-2004. We projected that between 370 and 561 vascular plant taxa will go extinct in Japan during the next century if past trends of population decline continue. This extinction rate is approximately two to three times the global rate. Using time-series data, we show that existing national protected areas (PAs) covering ca. 7% of Japan will not adequately prevent population declines: even core PAs can protect at best

Road mortality is thought to be a leading cause of turtle population decline. However, empirical evidence of the direct negative effects of road mortality on turtle population abundance is lacking. The purpose of this study was to provide a strong test of the prediction that roads reduce turtle population abundance. While controlling for potentially confounding variables, we compared relative abundance of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) in 20 ponds in Eastern Ontario, 10 as close as possible to high traffic roads (Road sites) and 10 as far as possible from any major roads (No Road sites). There was no significant effect of roads on painted turtle relative abundance. Furthermore, our data do not support other predictions of the road mortality hypothesis; we observed neither a higher relative frequency of males to females at Road sites than at No Road sites, nor a lower average body size of turtles at Road than at No Road sites. We speculate that, although roads can cause substantial adult mortality in turtles, other factors, such as release from predation on adults and/or nests close to roads counter the negative effect of road mortality in some populations. We suggest that road mitigation for painted turtles can be limited to locations where turtles are forced to migrate across high traffic roads due, for example, to destruction of local nesting habitat or seasonal drying of ponds. This conclusion should not be extrapolated to other species of turtles, where road mortality could have a larger population-level effect than on painted turtles.

Decline in wild populations as a result of anthropogenic impact is widely considered to have evolutionary consequences for the species concerned. Here we examine changes in developmental stability in the painted hunting dog (Lycaon pictus), which once occupied most of sub-Saharan Africa but has undergone a dramatic population decline in the last century. Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) was used as an indicator of developmental stability and measured in museum skull specimens spanning a hundred year period. A comparison with the more ubiquitous black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas) revealed FA in L. pictus to be high. Furthermore, the data indicate a temporal increase in FA over time in L. pictus, corresponding to the period of its population decline. The high rate of change is compatible with genetic drift although environmental factors are also likely to be important. Lowering developmental stability over time may have direct fitness consequences and as such represents an unacknowledged threat to future resilience of the population.

Nesting by three species of marine turtles persists in the Dominican Republic, despite historic threats and long-term population decline. We conducted a genetic survey of marine turtles in the Dominican Republic in order to link them with other rookeries around the Caribbean. We sequenced a 740bp fragment of the control region of the mitochondrial DNA of 92 samples from three marine turtle species [hawksbill (n = 48), green (n = 2) and leatherback (n = 42)], and incorporated published data from other nesting populations and foraging grounds. The leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Dominican Republic appeared to be isolated from Awala-Yalimapo, Cayenne, Trinidad and St. Croix but connected with other Caribbean populations. Two distinct nesting populations of hawksbill turtles (Eremochelys imbricata) were detected in the Dominican Republic and exhibited interesting patterns of connectivity with other nesting sites and juvenile and adult male foraging aggregations. The green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) has almost been extirpated from the Dominican Republic and limited inference could be made from our samples. Finally, results were compared with Lagrangian drifting buoys and published Lagrangian virtual particles that travelled through the Dominican Republic and Caribbean waters. Conservation implications of sink-source effects or genetic isolation derived from these complex inter-connections are discussed for each species and population.