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Background: The impact of nutritional supplements on weight gain in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral treatment (ART) remains uncertain. Starting supplements depends upon current weight-for-age or other acute malnutrition indicators, producing time-dependent confounding. However, weight-for-age at ART initiation may affect subsequent weight gain, independent of supplement use. Implications for marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) are unclear. Methods: In the ARROW trial, non-randomised supplement use and weight-for-age were recorded monthly from ART initiation. The effect of supplements on weight-for-age over the first year was estimated using generalised estimating equation MSMs with IPTW, both with and without interaction terms between baseline weight-for-age and time. Separately, data were simulated assuming no supplement effect, with use depending on current weight-for-age, and weight-for-age trajectory depending on baseline weight-for-age to investigate potential bias associated with different MSM specifications. Results: In simulations, despite correctly specifying IPTW, omitting an interaction in the MSM between baseline weight-for-age and time produced increasingly biased estimates as associations between baseline weight-for-age and subsequent weight trajectory increased. Estimates were unbiased when the interaction between baseline weight-for-age and time was included, even if the data were simulated with no such interaction. In ARROW, without an interaction the estimated effect was +0.09 (95%CI +0.02,+0.16) greater weight-for-age gain per month's supplement use; this reduced to +0.03 (-0.04,+0.10) including the interaction. Discussion: This study highlights a specific situation in which MSM model misspecification can occur and impact the resulting estimate. Since an interaction in the MSM (outcome) model does not bias the estimate of effect if the interaction does not exist, it may be advisable to include such a term when fitting MSMs for repeated measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Anemia in infancy is a global public health problem. We evaluated the relative contributions of iron deficiency and inflammation to infant anemia. Methods: We measured plasma hepcidin, ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), alpha-1-acid glycoprotein and C-reactive protein (CRP) by ELISA on archived plasma from 289 HIV-unexposed anemic or non-anemic Zimbabwean infants at ages 3mo, 6mo and 12mo. Among anemic infants, we determined the proportion with iron-deficiency anemia (IDA) and anemia of inflammation (AI). We undertook regression analyses of plasma hepcidin and anemia status, adjusting for sex, age and birthweight. Results: Anemic infants at 3mo were more stunted and had higher CRP (median 0.45 vs 0.21mg/L; P = 0.037) and hepcidin (median 14.7 vs 9.7ng/mL; P = 0.022) than non-anemic infants, but similar levels of ferritin and sTfR; 11% infants had IDA and 15% had AI. Anemic infants at 6mo had higher hepcidin (median 7.9 vs 4.5ng/mL; P = 0.016) and CRP (median 2.33 vs 0.32mg/L; P<0.001), but lower ferritin (median 13.2 vs 25.1μg/L; P<0.001) than non-anemic infants; 56% infants had IDA and 12% had AI. Anemic infants at 12mo had lower ferritin (median 3.2 vs 22.2μg/L; P<0.001) and hepcidin (median 0.9 vs 1.9ng/mL; P = 0.019), but similar CRP levels; 48% infants had IDA and 8% had AI. Comparing anemic with non-anemic infants, plasma hepcidin was 568% higher, 405% higher and 64% lower at 3mo, 6mo and 12mo, respectively, after adjusting for sex and birthweight (all p<0.01). Plasma hepcidin declined significantly with age among anemic but not non-anemic infants. Girls had 61% higher hepcidin than boys, after adjusting for age, anemia and birthweight (p<0.001). Conclusion: Anemia is driven partly by inflammation early in infancy, and by iron deficiency later in infancy, with plasma hepcidin concentrations reflecting the relative contribution of each. However, there is need to better characterize the drivers of hepcidin during infancy in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]