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Objective: The Da Qing Diabetes Prevention program (DQDP) was a randomized lifestyle modification intervention conducted in 1986 for the prevention and control of type 2 diabetes in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance. The current study estimated long-term cost-effectiveness of the program based on the health utilities from the Chinese population., Methods: A Markov Monte Carlo model was developed to estimate the impact of the intervention from the healthcare system perspective. The analysis was run over 30-year and lifetime periods and costs were estimated respectively as health management service costs. Baseline characteristics and intervention effects were assessed from the DQDP. Utilities and costs were generated from relevant literature. The outcome measures were program cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the intervention. Sensitivity analyses and threshold analyses were performed., Results: Using a 30-year horizon, the intervention strategy was cost-saving and was associated with better health outcomes (increase of 0.74 QALYs per intervention participant). Using a lifetime horizon, the intervention strategy was cost-saving and was associated with additional 1.44 QALYs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the overall ICER was most strongly influenced by the hazard ratio of cardiovascular disease event., Conclusions: The Da Qing lifestyle intervention in a Chinese population with impaired glucose tolerance is likely to translate into substantial economic value. It is cost-saving over a 30-year time and lifetime frame., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Aims: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and gestational diabetes (GDM) are globally on the rise, accompanied by comorbidities and associated health costs. Increased physical activity, healthy nutrition, and weight loss have shown the potential to prevent T2DM/GDM. Despite this, reaching vulnerable groups remains a key challenge. The aim of this scoping review was to identify barriers and facilitating factors in the prevention of T2DM/GDM in vulnerable groups., Methods: We conducted a systematic literature search in May 2018, updated in September 2019, in several databases (e.g. PubMed, Embase) to identify barriers and facilitating factors in the prevention of T2DM/GDM in vulnerable groups. Two reviewers independently screened the results. Extracted data was charted, categorized, and summarized., Results: We included 125 articles. Ninety-eight studies were extracted, and eight categories of barriers and facilitating factors were formed. The most common categories of barriers were limited knowledge, family/friends, and economic factors, and the most common categories of facilitating factors were family/friends, social support, and knowledge., Conclusion: This scoping review identified various barriers and facilitating factors in vulnerable groups. Preventive interventions should consider these barriers and facilitating factors in developing preventive interventions or in adapting existing ones., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The use of aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with lower rates of cardiovascular events but increased risks of bleeding complications. We aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of aspirin therapy for primary prevention of CVD in Chinese DM patients. A life-long Markov model was developed to compare aspirin therapy (100mg daily) versus no use of aspirin in DM patients with no history of CVD. Model validation was conducted by comparing the simulated event rates with data reported in a clinical trial. Direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYs) were the primary outcomes from the perspective of healthcare system in China. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the uncertainty of model inputs. Base-case analysis showed aspirin therapy was more costly (USD1,086 versus USD819) with higher QALYs gained (11.94 versus 11.86 QALYs) compared to no use of aspirin. The base-case results were sensitive to the odds ratio of all-cause death in aspirin therapy versus no use of aspirin. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that aspirin therapy gained an additional 0.066 QALYs (95% CI: -0.167 QALYs-0.286 QALYs) at higher cost by USD352 (95% CI: USD130-644)). Using 30,000 USD/QALY as willingness-to-pay threshold, aspirin therapy and no use of aspirin were the preferred option in 68.71% and 31.29% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, respectively. In conclusion, aspirin therapy appears to be cost-effective compared with no use of aspirin in primary prevention of CVD in Chinese DM patients., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: The health economic evidence about the value and optimal targeting of genetic testing in the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) events has remained limited and ambiguous. The objective of this study is to optimize the population-level use and targeting of genetic testing alongside traditional risk factors in the prevention of CHD events and, thereby, to assess the cost-benefit of genetic testing., Methods and Findings: We compare several strategies for using traditional and genetic testing in the prevention of CHD through statin therapy. The targeting of tests to different patient segments within these strategies is optimized by using a decision-analytic model, in which a patient's estimated risk of CHD is updated based on test results using Bayesian methods. We adopt the perspective of healthcare sector. The data for the model is exceptionally wide and combined from national healthcare registers, the Finnish Institute for Molecular Medicine, and published literature. Our results suggest that targeting genetic testing in an optimal way to those patients about which traditional risk factors do not provide sufficiently accurate information results in the highest expected net benefit. In particular, compared to the use of traditional risk factors only, the optimal use of genetic testing would decrease the expected costs of an average patient aged 45 years or more by 2.54€ in a 10-year follow-up period while maintaining the level of the expected health outcome. Thus, genetic testing is found to be a part of a cost-beneficial testing strategy alongside traditional risk factors. This conclusion is robust to reasonable changes in model inputs., Conclusions: If targeted optimally, the use of genetic testing alongside traditional risk factors is cost-beneficial in the prevention of CHD., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Clinical trials suggest that use of fixed-dose combination therapy ('polypills') can improve adherence to medication and control of risk factors of people at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared to usual care, but cost-effectiveness is unknown., Objective: To determine whether a polypill is cost-effective compared to usual care and optimal guideline-recommended treatment for primary prevention in people already on statins and/or blood pressure lowering therapy., Methods: A Markov model was developed to perform a cost-utility analysis with a one year time cycle and a 10 year time horizon to compare the polypill with usual care and optimal implementation of NICE Guidelines, using patient level data from a retrospective cross-sectional study. The model was run for ten age (40 years+) and gender-specific sub-groups on treatment for raised CVD risk with no history of CVD. Published sources were used to estimate impact of different treatment strategies on risk of CVD events., Results: A polypill strategy was potentially cost-effective compared to other strategies for most sub-groups ranging from dominance to up to £18,811 per QALY depending on patient sub-group. Optimal implementation of guidelines was most cost-effective for women aged 40-49 and men aged 75+. Results were sensitive to polypill cost, and if the annual cost was less than £150, this approach was cost-effective compared to the other strategies., Conclusions: For most people already on treatment to modify CVD risk, a polypill strategy may be cost-effective compared with optimising treatment as per guidelines or their current care, as long as the polypill cost is sufficiently low.

Objective: To assess the utility of QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-tube (QFT-GIT) for targeting preventive therapy in BCG-vaccinated contacts of tuberculosis (TB), based on its high specificity and negative predictive value for development of TB., Methods: We compared two screening strategies for TB contact tracing in two consecutive periods: the tuberculin skin test (TST) period, when all contacts were screened with the TST alone; and the QFT-GIT period, when BCG-vaccinated contacts underwent TST and QFT-GIT. Diagnosis of TB infection among BCG-vaccinated contacts relied on TST ≥5 mm in the TST period, while in the QFT-GIT period either a positive QFT-GIT or a TST ≥15 mm was required., Measurements and Main Results: Six hundred and sixty-one contacts were compared. In the QFT-GIT period there was a reduction in diagnoses of TB infection (77.4% vs. 51.2%; p <0.01) and preventive therapy prescribed (62.1% vs. 48.2%; p = 0.02) among the 290 BCG-vaccinated contacts. After a median follow-up of 5 years, cumulative incidences of TB were 0.62 and 0.29 in the TST and QFT-GIT periods respectively (p = 0.59)., Conclusions: In BCG-vaccinated TB contacts, the addition of QFT-GIT safely reduced TB diagnosis and treatment rates without increasing the risk of subsequent active TB.

Background: Postpartum heammorrhage (PPH), defined as blood loss greater than or equal to 500 ml within 24 hours after birth, is the leading cause of maternal deaths globally and in India. Misoprostol is an important option for PPH management in setting where oxytocin (the gold standard for PPH prevention and treatment) in not available or not feasible to use. For the substantial number of deliveries which take place at home or at lower level heatlh facilities in India, misoprostol pills can be adminstered to prevent PPH. The standard approach using misoprostol is to administer it prophylactically as primary prevention (600 mcg). An alternative strategy could be to administer misoprostol only to those who are at high risk of having PPH i.e. as secondary prevention., Methods: This study reports on the relative cost per person of a strategy involving primary versus secondary prevention of PPH using misoprostol. It is based on a randomized cluster trial that was conducted in Bijapur district in Karnataka, India between December 2011 and March 2014 among pregnant women to compare two community-level strategies for the prevention of PPH: primary and secondary. The analysis was conducted from the government perspective using an ingredient approach., Results: The cluster trial showed that there were no significant differences in clinical outcomes between the two study arms. However, the results of the cost analysis show that there is a difference of INR 6 (US$ 0.1) per birth for implementing the strategies primary versus secondary prevention. In India where 14.9 million births take place at sub-centres and at home, this additional cost of INR 6 per birth translates to an additional cost of INR 94 (US$ 1.6) million to the government to implement the primary prevention compared to the secondary prevention strategy., Conclusion: As clinical outcomes did not differ significantly between the two arms in the trial, taking into account the difference in costs and potential issues with sustainability, secondary prevention might be a more strategic option., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Studies of cost-effective disease prevention have typically focused on the tradeoff between the cost of disease transmission and the cost of applying control measures. We present a novel approach that also accounts for the cost of social disruptions resulting from the spread of disease. These disruptions, which we call social response, can include heightened anxiety, strain on healthcare infrastructure, economic losses, or violence., Methodology: The spread of disease and social response are simulated under several different intervention strategies. The modeled social response depends upon the perceived risk of the disease, the extent of disease spread, and the media involvement. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we estimate the total number of infections and total social response for each strategy. We then identify the strategy that minimizes the expected total cost of the disease, which includes the cost of the disease itself, the cost of control measures, and the cost of social response., Conclusions: The model-based simulations suggest that the least-cost disease control strategy depends upon the perceived risk of the disease, as well as media intervention. The most cost-effective solution for diseases with low perceived risk was to implement moderate control measures. For diseases with higher perceived severity, such as SARS or Ebola, the most cost-effective strategy shifted toward intervening earlier in the outbreak, with greater resources. When intervention elicited increased media involvement, it remained important to control high severity diseases quickly. For moderate severity diseases, however, it became most cost-effective to implement no intervention and allow the disease to run its course. Our simulation results imply that, when diseases are perceived as severe, the costs of social response have a significant influence on selecting the most cost-effective strategy.

Introduction: Vietnam has been largely reliant on international support in its HIV response. Over 2006-2010, a total of US$480 million was invested in its HIV programmes, more than 70% of which came from international sources. This study investigates the potential epidemiological impacts of these programmes and their cost-effectiveness., Methods: We conducted a data synthesis of HIV programming, spending, epidemiological, and clinical outcomes. Counterfactual scenarios were defined based on assumed programme coverage and behaviours had the programmes not been implemented. An epidemiological model, calibrated to reflect the actual epidemiological trends, was used to estimate plausible ranges of programme impacts. The model was then used to estimate the costs per averted infection, death, and disability adjusted life-year (DALY)., Results: Based on observed prevalence reductions amongst most population groups, and plausible counterfactuals, modelling suggested that antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention programmes over 2006-2010 have averted an estimated 50,600 [95% uncertainty bound: 36,300-68,900] new infections and 42,600 [36,100-54,100] deaths, resulting in 401,600 [312,200-496,300] fewer DALYs across all population groups. HIV programmes in Vietnam have cost an estimated US$1,972 [1,447-2,747], US$2,344 [1,843-2,765], and US$248 [201-319] for each averted infection, death, and DALY, respectively., Conclusions: Our evaluation suggests that HIV programmes in Vietnam have most likely had benefits that are cost-effective. ART and direct HIV prevention were the most cost-effective interventions in reducing HIV disease burden.

Aims: The aim was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of primary prevention of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) through intensified counselling on physical activity, diet, and appropriate weight gain among the risk group., Materials and Methods: The cost-effectiveness analysis was based on data from a cluster-randomised controlled GDM prevention trial carried out in primary health-care maternity clinics in Finland. Women (n = 399) with at least one risk factor for GDM were included. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated in terms of birth weight, 15D, and perceived health as measured with a visual analogue scale (VAS). A bootstrap technique for cluster-randomised samples was used to estimate uncertainty around a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve., Results: The mean total cost in the intervention group was €7,763 (standard deviation (SD): €4,511) and in the usual-care group was €6,994 (SD: €4,326, p = 0.14). The mean intervention cost was €141. The difference for costs in the birth-weight group was €753 (95% CI: -250 to 1,818) and in effects for birth weight was 115 g (95% CI: 15 to 222). The ICER for birth weight was almost €7, with 86.7% of bootstrap pairs located in the north-east quadrant, indicating that the intervention was more effective and more expensive in birth weight terms than the usual care was. The data show an 86.7% probability that each gram of birth weight avoided requires an additional cost of €7., Conclusions: Intervention was effective for birth weight but was not cost-effective for birth weight, 15D, or VAS when compared to the usual care., Trial Registration: ISRCTN 33885819.

Background: Despite many decades of declining mortality rates in the Western world, cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. In this research we evaluate the optimal mix of lifestyle, pharmaceutical and population-wide interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease., Methods and Findings: In a discrete time Markov model we simulate the ischaemic heart disease and stroke outcomes and cost impacts of intervention over the lifetime of all Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Best value for money is achieved by mandating moderate limits on salt in the manufacture of bread, margarine and cereal. A combination of diuretic, calcium channel blocker, ACE inhibitor and low-cost statin, for everyone with at least 5% five-year risk of cardiovascular disease, is also cost-effective, but lifestyle interventions aiming to change risky dietary and exercise behaviours are extremely poor value for money and have little population health benefit., Conclusions: There is huge potential for improving efficiency in cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia. A tougher approach from Government to mandating limits on salt in processed foods and reducing excessive statin prices, and a shift away from lifestyle counselling to more efficient absolute risk-based prescription of preventive drugs, could cut health care costs while improving population health.